Las complicadas condiciones económicas están preparando el terreno para que sea interesante el año que está por delante. A medida que se desacelera la economía y el ciclo envejece, es probable que las empresas afronten obstáculos financieros. Aunque las empresas están empezando el año con balances sólidos, ¿pueden los emisores de high yield capear una recesión?
Aunque la precaución está garantizada, pensamos que muchas compañías high yield están bien posicionadas para navegar una desaceleración, dado que el punto de partida es de fundamentales sólidos. En los últimos años, las compañías high yield fueron diligentes en la mejora de sus balances, dando como resultado los niveles de apalancamiento más bajos en más de una década (gráfico 1) y las ratios de cobertura de interés más elevadas de la historia reciente. Esta mejora de los fundamentales también se evidencia por el momento de mejora de ratings actual, en el que las estrellas emergentes están superando a los ángeles caídos. Además, la composición por calidad del crédito ha mejorado en el mercado, habiendo ahora más de un 50% de BBs y alrededor de un 10% de CCCs o inferior. Por dar contexto, antes de la gran crisis financiera, el mercado de high yield tenía más de un 20% de CCCs e inferior.
A medida que entramos en 2023, el entorno macroeconómico global se mantiene extremadamente incierto. Unos tipos de interés más altos y potencialmente al alza, inflación persistente, un riesgo geopolítico elevado, unos mercados de la energía tensos y los efectos de la incierta reapertura de China son solo algunas de las principales preocupaciones.
Estos riesgos bien pueden llevar a una mayor desaceleración de EE.UU. y las economías desarrolladas y crear obstáculos financieros a muchas compañías de high yield. Con el riesgo de una potencial recesión apareciendo en el horizonte, es probable que las compañías high yield afronten una demanda ralentizada del consumidor y recortes en las inversiones corporativas—y ambos podrían llevar a una caída en los ingresos. Es posible que se contraigan los márgenes al estar los ingresos bajo presión en este contexto de desaceleración económica. Además, es probable que las ratios de cobertura por tipo de interés caigan, al ajustarse los rendimientos por cupón al alza e incrementarse los costes por intereses, especialmente para los emisores de bonos flotantes. Como resultado, creemos que la mejora de los fundamentales ya ha tocado techo para muchas compañías de high yield.
A pesar de la nublada previsión macro, creemos que muchas compañías están bien posicionadas para navegar una desaceleración. En general, los balances están en buena forma y las métricas de crédito no están ajustadas para muchas empresas. Adicionalmente, no existe un muro de vencimientos inmediato que suponga un desafío financiero para las empresas (gráfico 2) y los niveles de liquidez en general son buenos. Durante el año que está por delante, esperamos que el mercado del high yield presentará oportunidades convincentes para invertir en empresas con un perfil de rentabilidad riesgo atractivo.
Tribuna de Kevin Bakker, CFA, y Ben Miller, CFA, co responsables de high yield estadounidense en Aegon Asset Management.
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