Las materias primas no son el activo más apreciado, pero tienen un enorme potencial cuando haya pasado lo peor de la ralentización económica provocada por los confinamientos del coronavirus, explica Jeroen Blokland, especialista en multiactivos de Robeco.
“Creemos que estamos en el mínimo de la recesión del COVID-19, o ya lo hemos pasado”, comenta Blokland, “eso significa que la demanda mundial empezará a mejorar ahora. Lo mismo le ocurrirá a las materias primas y en especial con los metales industriales.”
“Al mismo tiempo, en el mercado de materias primas están empezando a tomar forma ajustes por el lado de la oferta. Los metales preciosos también ofrecen potencial alcista en circunstancias económicas diferentes, en especial si la recuperación económica mundial flaquea, o si las expectativas de inflación aumentan.”
“Por tanto, desde una perspectiva técnica ha llegado la hora de sobreponderar materias primas», señala.
Industria contra servicios
Blokland considera que los datos disponibles apuntan a que los sectores industriales saldrán con más fuerza de la recesión del coronavirus que los sectores de servicios, que todavía sufren medidas para contener el virus, como la distancia social.
Según él, las medidas vigentes tendrán un efecto más duradero en determinados sectores de servicios que en los industriales. “Los últimos suponen el grueso de la demanda de materias primas. El hecho de que los índices de gestores de compras (PMI) de servicios de todo el mundo cayeran a niveles mucho más bajos y que se hayan recuperado menos que los PMI favorece esa hipótesis.”
“Además de una recuperación de la demanda, también prevemos un ajuste por el lado de la oferta. El reequilibrio de los mercados de materias primas ha comenzado y seguirá en los próximos meses y trimestres. El petróleo es un buen ejemplo de ello, al haber recortado la OPEC+ el suministro en casi 10 millones de barriles al día.”
“Para los metales industriales, también prevemos un reajuste de este tipo, aunque de forma menos centralizada. Los mercados de metales se caracterizan por las enormes distancias geográficas entre productores y consumidores. En los últimos meses, eso conllevó un repunte de los inventarios de metales industriales, ya que la producción no podía literalmente ir a ningún sitio debido a las medidas de confinamiento adoptadas.”
Una buena diversificación
Aparte de suponer una buena inversión de cara a la recuperación económica prevista, Blokland señala que los metales preciosos son una buena diversificación de la cartera. Pueden servir de cobertura (una especie de seguro) si las cosas no salen como se preveía.
“En concreto, el oro ofrece una cobertura atractiva para distintos escenarios macroeconómicos”, puntualiza. “Su condición de refugio seguro quedó patente cuando el coronavirus afectó a la economía mundial. En abril, el precio del oro se elevó por encima de los 1.700 dólares, aproximándose a sus máximos de 2011 y 2012. En marzo y abril, el oro generó una rentabilidad positiva de más de 6%.”
“Aunque nuestro escenario base no contempla una nueva recesión, consideramos que, dados los extraordinarios estímulos adoptados por gobiernos y bancos centrales de todo el mundo, existe margen para que las expectativas de inflación aumenten cuando pase el shock desinflacionario y se ponga en marcha la recuperación.”
El ‘activo final definitivo’
“Considerado por muchos inversores como el activo real definitivo, el oro se ha comportado históricamente bien cuando las expectativas de inflación han aumentado. En la actualidad, las expectativas de inflación están muy apagadas. Aunque podría pasar algún tiempo antes de que la inflación se dispara, no descartamos esa posibilidad en el futuro. Entre otras cosas, porque pensamos que en buena medida los estímulos no van a revertirse a corto plazo.”
“Una subida continuada de la inflación (expectativas) también aplazaría el debate sobre la sostenibilidad de la deuda. Los bancos centrales ya han mostrado que están dispuestos a que la inflación supere los niveles objetivos en sus jurisdicciones. Prevemos que el oro se beneficiará si el crecimiento y la inflación regresan.”
Además, añade que no hay que olvidarse de la hermana pequeña del oro, la plata. “En esas circunstancias también pronosticamos un buen comportamiento de la plata. En primer lugar, porque el oro y la plata casi siempre van de la mano. Y en segundo, porque, al contrario que el oro, la plata tiene un uso industrial (en aleaciones para electrónica), por lo que se beneficiaría de una recuperación de la demanda mundial. En los últimos años, la ratio oro/plata ha alcanzado niveles extremos. Prevemos cierta reversión a la media de esta ratio cuando la demanda industrial se recupere.”
Reducir el riesgo emergente
El aumento de la exposición a materias primas ha conllevado que se reduzca la ponderación de la renta variable de mercados emergentes, una clase de activo que históricamente ha guardado una estrecha relación con las materias primas, cuya extracción se realiza en muchos países en desarrollo.
“La renta variable de mercados emergentes descuenta una significativa recuperación, sin llegar a una V, que apenas deja margen de error”, advierte Blokland. “Esto no es desde luego predicable de las materias primas. Prevemos que la rentabilidad relativa de las materias primas mejore cuando la recuperación económica se ponga en marcha y se consolide el reajuste entre oferta y demanda.”
“De todas las clases de activo de riesgo, las materias primas son las que menos descuentan la recuperación económica mundial que anticipamos para los próximos trimestres. La combinación de un reequilibrio de oferta y demanda y una clara mejora en las cifras de crecimiento de PIB tras la caída histórica sufrida debería impulsar al alza a los precios de los metales industriales.”
Important Information: Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. has a license as manager of Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) and Alternative Investment Funds (AIFs) (“Fund(s)”) from The Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets in Amsterdam. This document is solely intended for professional investors, defined as investors qualifying as professional clients, have requested to be treated as professional clients or are authorized to receive such information under any applicable laws. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V and/or its related, affiliated and subsidiary companies, (“Robeco”), will not be liable for any damages arising out of the use of this document. Users of this information who provide investment services in the European Union have their own responsibility to assess whether they are allowed to receive the information in accordance with MiFID II regulations. To the extent this information qualifies as a reasonable and appropriate minor non-monetary benefit under MiFID II, users that provide investment services in the European Union are responsible to comply with applicable recordkeeping and disclosure requirements. The content of this document is based upon sources of information believed to be reliable and comes without warranties of any kind. Without further explanation this document cannot be considered complete. Any opinions, estimates or forecasts may be changed at any time without prior warning. If in doubt, please seek independent advice. It is intended to provide the professional investor with general information on Robeco’s specific capabilities, but has not been prepared by Robeco as investment research and does not constitute an investment recommendation or advice to buy or sell certain securities or investment products and/or to adopt any investment strategy and/or legal, accounting or tax advice. 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Please refer to the prospectus of the Funds for further details. Performance is quoted net of investment management fees. The ongoing charges mentioned in this document are the ones stated in the Fund’s latest annual report at closing date of the last calendar year. This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, document, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject any Fund or Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Any decision to subscribe for interests in a Fund offered in a particular jurisdiction must be made solely on the basis of information contained in the prospectus, which information may be different from the information contained in this document. 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Additional Information for US investors
Robeco is considered “participating affiliated” and some of their employees are “associated persons” of Robeco Institutional Asset Management US Inc. (“RIAM US”) as per relevant SEC no-action guidance. Employees identified as associated persons of RIAM US perform activities directly or indirectly related to the investment advisory services provided by RIAM US. In those situation these individuals are deemed to be acting on behalf of RIAM US, a US SEC registered investment adviser. SEC regulations are applicable only to clients, prospects and investors of RIAM US. RIAM US is wholly owned subsidiary of ORIX Corporation Europe N.V. and offers investment advisory services to institutional clients in the US.
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This document is distributed in Australia by Robeco Hong Kong Limited (ARBN 156 512 659) (“Robeco”), which is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services license under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) pursuant to ASIC Class Order 03/1103. Robeco is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission under the laws of Hong Kong and those laws may differ from Australian laws. This document is distributed only to “wholesale clients” as that term is defined under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). This document is not for distribution or dissemination, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. In New Zealand, this document is only available to wholesale investors within the meaning of clause 3(2) of Schedule 1 of the Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013 (‘FMCA’). This document is not for public distribution in Australia and New Zealand.
Additional Information for investors with residence or seat in Austria
This information is solely intended for professional investors or eligible counterparties in the meaning of the Austrian Securities Oversight Act.
Additional Information for investors with residence or seat in Brazil
The Fund may not be offered or sold to the public in Brazil. Accordingly, the Fund has not been nor will be registered with the Brazilian Securities Commission – CVM, nor has it been submitted to the foregoing agency for approval. Documents relating to the Fund, as well as the information contained therein, may not be supplied to the public in Brazil, as the offering of the Fund is not a public offering of securities in Brazil, nor may they be used in connection with any offer for subscription or sale of securities to the public in Brazil.
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No securities commission or similar authority in Canada has reviewed or in any way passed upon this document or the merits of the securities described herein, and any representation to the contrary is an offence. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. is relying on the international dealer and international adviser exemption in Quebec and has appointed McCarthy Tétrault LLP as its agent for service in Quebec.
Additional information for investors with residence or seat in the Republic of Chile
Neither the issuer nor the Funds have been registered with the Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros pursuant to law no. 18.045, the Ley de Mercado de Valores and regulations thereunder. This document does not constitute an offer of, or an invitation to subscribe for or purchase, shares of the Funds in the Republic of Chile, other than to the specific person who individually requested this information on his own initiative. This may therefore be treated as a “private offering” within the meaning of article 4 of the Ley de Mercado de Valores (an offer that is not addressed to the public at large or to a certain sector or specific group of the public).
Additional Information for investors with residence or seat in Colombia
This document does not constitute a public offer in the Republic of Colombia. The offer of the Fund is addressed to less than one hundred specifically identified investors. The Fund may not be promoted or marketed in Colombia or to Colombian residents, unless such promotion and marketing is made in compliance with Decree 2555 of 2010 and other applicable rules and regulations related to the promotion of foreign Funds in Colombia.
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This material is being distributed by Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (DIFC Branch) located at Office 209, Level 2, Gate Village Building 7, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai, PO Box 482060, UAE. Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V. (DIFC Branch) is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”) and only deals with Professional Clients or Market Counterparties and does not deal with Retail Clients as defined by the DFSA.
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Robeco is at liberty to provide services in France. Robeco France (only authorized to offer investment advice service to professional investors) has been approved under registry number 10683 by the French prudential control and resolution authority (formerly ACP, now the ACPR) as an investment firm since 28 September 2012.
Additional Information for investors with residence or seat in Germany
This information is solely intended for professional investors or eligible counterparties in the meaning of the German Securities Trading Act.
Additional Information for investors with residence or seat in Hong Kong
The contents of this document have not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) in Hong Kong. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. This document has been distributed by Robeco Hong Kong Limited (“Robeco”). Robeco is regulated by the SFC in Hong Kong.
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This document is considered for use solely by qualified investors and private professional clients (as defined in Article 26 (1) (b) and (d) of Consob Regulation No. 16190 dated 29 October 2007). If made available to Distributors and individuals authorized by Distributors to conduct promotion and marketing activity, it may only be used for the purpose for which it was conceived. The data and information contained in this document may not be used for communications with Supervisory Authorities. This document does not include any information to determine, in concrete terms, the investment inclination and, therefore, this document cannot and should not be the basis for making any investment decisions.
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This document is considered for use solely by qualified investors and is being distributed by Robeco Japan Company Limited, registered in Japan as a Financial Instruments Business Operator, Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO) registration number 2780, Member of Japan Investment Advisors Association.
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The Fund has not been registered with the Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores (SMV) and is being placed by means of a private offer. SMV has not reviewed the information provided to the investor. This document is only for the exclusive use of institutional investors in Peru and is not for public distribution.
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This material is prepared by Robeco Overseas Investment Fund Management (Shanghai) Limited Company (“Robeco Shanghai”) and is only provided to the specific objects under the premise of confidentiality. Robeco Shanghai has not yet been registered as a private fund manager with the Asset Management Association of China. Robeco Shanghai is a wholly foreign-owned enterprise established in accordance with the PRC laws, which enjoys independent civil rights and civil obligations. The statements of the shareholders or affiliates in the material shall not be deemed to a promise or guarantee of the shareholders or affiliates of Robeco Shanghai, or be deemed to any obligations or liabilities imposed to the shareholders or affiliates of Robeco Shanghai.
Additional Information for investors with residence or seat in Singapore
This document has not been registered with the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”). Accordingly, this document may not be circulated or distributed directly or indirectly to persons in Singapore other than (i) to an institutional investor under Section 304 of the SFA, (ii) to a relevant person pursuant to Section 305(1), or any person pursuant to Section 305(2), and in accordance with the conditions specified in Section 305, of the SFA, or (iii) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with the conditions of, any other applicable provision of the SFA. The contents of this document have not been reviewed by the MAS. Any decision to participate in the Fund should be made only after reviewing the sections regarding investment considerations, conflicts of interest, risk factors and the relevant Singapore selling restrictions (as described in the section entitled “Important Information for Singapore Investors”) contained in the prospectus. You should consult your professional adviser if you are in doubt about the stringent restrictions applicable to the use of this document, regulatory status of the Fund, applicable regulatory protection, associated risks and suitability of the Fund to your objectives. Investors should note that only the sub-Funds listed in the appendix to the section entitled “Important Information for Singapore Investors” of the prospectus (“Sub-Funds”) are available to Singapore investors. The Sub-Funds are notified as restricted foreign schemes under the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“SFA”) and are invoking the exemptions from compliance with prospectus registration requirements pursuant to the exemptions under Section 304 and Section 305 of the SFA. The Sub-Funds are not authorized or recognized by the MAS and shares in the Sub-Funds are not allowed to be offered to the retail public in Singapore. The prospectus of the Fund is not a prospectus as defined in the SFA. Accordingly, statutory liability under the SFA in relation to the content of prospectuses would not apply. The Sub-Funds may only be promoted exclusively to persons who are sufficiently experienced and sophisticated to understand the risks involved in investing in such schemes, and who satisfy certain other criteria provided under Section 304, Section 305 or any other applicable provision of the SFA and the subsidiary legislation enacted thereunder. You should consider carefully whether the investment is suitable for you. Robeco Singapore Private Limited holds a capital markets services license for fund management issued by the MAS and is subject to certain clientele restrictions under such license.
Additional Information for investors with residence or seat in Spain
Robeco Institutional Asset Management BV, Branch in Spain is registered in Spain in the Commercial Registry of Madrid, in v.19.957, page 190, section 8, page M-351927 and in the Official Register of the National Securities Market Commission of branches of companies of services of investment of the European Economic Space, with the number 24. It has address in Street Serrano 47, Madrid and CIF W0032687F. The investment funds or SICAV mentioned in this document are regulated by the corresponding authorities of their country of origin and are registered in the Special Registry of the CNMV of Foreign Collective Investment Institutions marketed in Spain.
Additional Information for investors with residence or seat in South Africa
Robeco Institutional Asset Management B.V is registered and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority in South Africa.
Additional Information for investors with residence or seat in Switzerland
This document is exclusively distributed in Switzerland to qualified investors as defined in the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act (CISA). This material is distributed by RobecoSAM AG, postal address: Josefstrasse 218, 8005 Zurich. ACOLIN Fund Services AG, postal address: Affolternstrasse 56, 8050 Zürich, acts as the Swiss representative of the Fund(s). UBS Switzerland AG, Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, postal address: Europastrasse 2, P.O. Box, CH-8152 Opfikon, acts as the Swiss paying agent. The prospectus, the Key Investor Information Documents (KIIDs), the articles of association, the annual and semi-annual reports of the Fund(s), as well as the list of the purchases and sales which the Fund(s) has undertaken during the financial year, may be obtained, on simple request and free of charge, at the office of the Swiss representative ACOLIN Fund Services AG. The prospectuses are also available via the website www.robeco.ch.
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Some Funds referred to in this marketing material have been registered with the UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (the Authority). Details of all Registered Funds can be found on the Authority’s website. The Authority assumes no liability for the accuracy of the information set out in this material/document, nor for the failure of any persons engaged in the investment Fund in performing their duties and responsibilities.
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Robeco is subject to limited regulation in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request.
Additional Information for investors with residence or seat in Uruguay
The sale of the Fund qualifies as a private placement pursuant to section 2 of Uruguayan law 18,627. The Fund must not be offered or sold to the public in Uruguay, except in circumstances which do not constitute a public offering or distribution under Uruguayan laws and regulations. The Fund is not and will not be registered with the Financial Services Superintendency of the Central Bank of Uruguay. The Fund corresponds to investment funds that are not investment funds regulated by Uruguayan law 16,774 dated September 27, 1996, as amended.
Additional Information concerning RobecoSAM Collective Investment Schemes
The RobecoSAM collective investment schemes (“RobecoSAM Funds”) in scope are sub-Funds under the Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS) of MULTIPARTNER SICAV, managed by GAM (Luxembourg) S.A., (“Multipartner”). Multipartner SICAV is incorporated as a Société d’Investissement à Capital Variable which is governed by Luxembourg law. The custodian is State Street Bank Luxembourg S.C.A., 49, Avenue J. F. Kennedy, L-1855 Luxembourg. The prospectus, the Key Investor Information Documents (KIIDs), the articles of association, the annual and semi-annual reports of the RobecoSAM Funds, as well as the list of the purchases and sales which the RobecoSAM Fund(s) has undertaken during the financial year, may be obtained, on simple request and free of charge, via the website www.robecosam.com.
Por Funds Society, Madrid
Por Meritxell Sedo