Guinness Global Investors (Guinness) has announced the acquisition of Foresight Capital Management (FCM), the public markets division of Foresight Group. The transaction includes seven investment strategies focused on listed real assets and sustainable and impact investing funds.
According to the firm, FCM’s listed real assets team will be integrated into Guinness’ Real Assets team, led by Mark Brennan, who helped develop and manage these strategies at FCM before joining Guinness. Meanwhile, Nick Scullion, Partner and Head of FCM, will remain at Foresight.
“The diversification benefits offered by listed real assets are more relevant than ever in today’s markets. Reuniting Mark Brennan with the funds he launched at FCM represents an excellent opportunity to strengthen our real assets investment platform,” said Edward Guinness, CEO of Guinness Global Investors.
For his part, Mark Brennan, Portfolio Manager at Guinness, commented: “The addition of these strategies and the listed real assets team to Guinness accelerates our growth plans by providing greater scale and expanding our investment team.”
Eric Bright and Mayank Markanday, Portfolio Managers at FCM, added: “Guinness will provide our listed real assets teams with an outstanding platform to support future growth. Collaborating with Guinness and with Mark is a natural evolution that will allow us to expand our capabilities.”
WHEB Strategies
The transaction also includes WHEB’s sustainable and impact investing team, now part of FCM, which will work alongside the Guinness team responsible for the Guinness Sustainable Energy strategy, launched in 2006, and the Guinness Global Environment strategy, launched in 2025.
WHEB’s impact investing approach—widely regarded as a market benchmark—will be maintained. Its framework combines the impact generated by portfolio companies with the contribution made by investors, while incorporating measurement criteria, stewardship, corporate governance, and transparency.
Edward Guinness added: “FCM’s WHEB team is recognized as a thought leader in responsible investing and will strengthen the expertise we have built at Guinness in this area. FCM’s WHEB funds offer attractive long-term prospects, and their portfolio companies are currently trading at historically low relative valuations.”
Ted Franks, Portfolio Manager of the impact strategies, said: “We have always admired Guinness’ disciplined investment and research process, as well as its expertise in areas closely aligned with our strategies. The integration will create a larger investment team, and I am very excited about this new chapter.”
Geopolitics and the agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—which is expected to provide relief to markets—set the stage for a week in which inflation and monetary policy return to the forefront. It is a busy week for central banks, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) are both expected to leave rates unchanged.
What these three institutions have in common—along with the European Central Bank (ECB), which met last week and raised rates by 25 basis points—is that persistent inflationary pressures are testing their resolve. Undoubtedly, the announced peace agreement between Iran and the United States adds a new dimension to the current environment and to inflation expectations.
“After weeks of negotiations and swings between optimism and pessimism, it appears that a key diplomatic milestone has been reached to bring the war with Iran to an end. There will be setbacks along the way, but the path out of the crisis now seems clear. The energy crisis has been far less threatening than feared, as markets have once again demonstrated their resilience. While several long-term uncertainties remain, energy markets appear to be heading back toward a situation similar to the previous one, where oversupply dominates. We maintain our cautious outlook and expect further downward pressure on oil prices,” says Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer.
According to investment managers, global central banks—including the Fed—are likely to maintain a hawkish stance to combat persistent energy-related inflationary pressures. Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, International Economist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, argues that this stance is reinforced by oil prices remaining at around $85 per barrel, adding approximately one percentage point to inflation this year. “In addition, the prolonged closure of the Strait has already triggered visible second-round inflation effects. At the same time, extremely tight credit spreads leave very little room for further compression,” he notes.
Focus on the Fed: Growth and Inflation
However, the greatest attention is focused on the Federal Reserve, and not only because it marks Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair. “While Donald Trump continues to call for rate cuts and some observers still expect one, the arguments in favor of such a monetary policy move do not withstand even the most basic analysis,” says Enguerrand Artaz, strategist at La Financière de l’Échiquier (LFDE).
From a growth perspective, the recent trend has been decidedly positive: economic growth remains solid, investment continues to expand thanks to AI, and the labor market is once again strengthening, with more sectors participating in the recovery. “This last point is especially important because, beyond being positive for consumer spending, it directly affects one of the Federal Reserve’s two mandates,” Artaz adds.
As for inflation, the latest figures clearly show an increase driven primarily—as expected—by higher energy prices, but also by a faster rise in services inflation, which is far more troubling for the Fed. Services inflation was the central concern during the Fed’s tightening cycle and, unlike energy prices, is not directly linked to the consequences of the conflict with Iran.
In other words, according to Artaz, “the Fed is simultaneously facing a resurgence in inflation—even excluding energy—and an economic cycle that continues to accelerate. It is difficult to envision a rate cut in such an environment, and markets are already pricing in a rate hike in 2026. Nevertheless, it is highly likely that Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, will at least try to preserve the status quo for as long as possible amid pressure from the White House.”
Warsh’s First Meeting
Regarding what to expect from Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, most investment managers expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, in line with market consensus and investor expectations. They also agree that he may remove the accommodative bias that has been in place since the current easing cycle began in September 2024. For some, this shift in tone would reflect a more balanced approach and, above all, growing concern over persistent inflation.
“The new Chair, Kevin Warsh, faces his first meeting in an especially complex environment. He inherits the most divided committee in more than three decades: three voting members had already opposed the accommodative bias in April, while outgoing Governor Stephen Miran once again voted in favor of a rate cut. The minutes make it clear that the committee’s internal balance has shifted toward a more hawkish stance, given the increasing uncertainty surrounding the duration and economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Recent data have done little to dispel those concerns,” says Michael Krautzberger, CIO of Global Public Markets at Allianz Global Investors.
According to Alessia Berardi, Head of Global Macroeconomics at the Amundi Investment Institute, this week’s meeting is not really about interest rates. “There is not much focus on rates themselves, but rather on Kevin Warsh’s first press conference and how he will balance the demands of President Trump with those of the bond market. Inflation is rising and the economy remains resilient—particularly the labor market, which is not cooling. The emerging agreement with Iran may make that balancing act easier for now. Questions about the balance sheet are expected during the press conference, although there are unlikely to be any clear answers.”
Finally, Benoit Anne, Senior Managing Director and Head of the Investment Insight Group at MFS Investment Management, highlights two key questions ahead of this week’s meeting: Will the median projection indicate no change in interest rates throughout 2026, which seems plausible? And will it continue to point toward some degree of monetary easing in 2027?
In his view, the broader issue is how the Fed’s communication strategy will evolve going forward. “This matters because Fed signals continue to move markets. The era of forward guidance may be coming to an end. Looking back, this tool appears to have gradually lost its effectiveness. It worked when interest rates were low and stable, and when the macroeconomic environment seemed relatively predictable. Going forward, we believe the Fed faces a challenging environment: persistent inflation, political pressure, and the challenge for a new Chair of building consensus around monetary policy,” Anne concludes.
Nur Cristiani, Head of Investment Strategy for Latin America at J.P. Morgan, believes the artificial intelligence supercycle has yet to reach its peak: value is only beginning to shift from infrastructure to platforms and applications, opening a new phase of opportunities. In this interview with Funds Society, she discusses the concentration risks facing Latin American investors, the less obvious opportunities the firm is monitoring—from defense to gold and emerging markets—and why she believes there is still room for investors who have not yet taken positions.
What stage of the AI supercycle are we in: early, accelerating, or mature?
We believe we are still in the acceleration phase. So far, much of the value created in the markets has been driven by infrastructure companies, both physical and digital. Only recently have we begun to see part of that value shift toward the platform and application layers.
Comparisons with the dot-com bubble come up constantly. Is that a valid analogy, or does it create more confusion than clarity?
When we talk about a “bubble,” we need to be careful and distinguish whether we are referring to market valuations or episodes of exuberance. We do see some exuberance in certain AI-related segments, but we do not believe we are at a point of valuation excess in the technology sector. In fact, if we consider growth expectations over the next three years, technology sector valuations remain below those of other sectors in the market. And while there is always uncertainty about the sustainability of recent growth trends, the reality is that technology companies continue to significantly outperform market expectations quarter after quarter. Moreover, comparisons with the dot-com bubble often imply high levels of leverage. Today’s situation is different: these companies are funding their growth with their own revenues and earnings, not with debt.
How are your high-net-worth clients in Latin America responding to this cycle? Are they more anxious to invest or more cautious?
Our clients have participated in this trend and maintain varying levels of exposure depending on their investment objectives and mandates. However, what we are seeing today is that every new dollar invested is seeking greater diversification. Not necessarily away from the AI theme, but toward broader exposure to other sectors and asset classes that could benefit from the next phase of value creation.
What is the most common mistake sophisticated private investors make during a technology cycle of this magnitude?
Concentration. In the early stages of value creation, some positions can appreciate significantly and end up representing an excessive share of a portfolio. This can create too much dependence on a single sector—or even a single company. That is why it is important to use those gains as an opportunity to diversify and maintain portfolio resilience, whether through active or passive strategies.
Is there a risk of becoming overexposed to AI within a portfolio? What would be a reasonable allocation to this theme for a long-term investor?
Rather than a risk of overexposure to AI itself, we see a risk of concentration in specific sectors or companies. We believe AI will drive productivity and efficiency gains across the entire economy, creating growth opportunities in multiple industries. However, asset selection will be critical because companies will benefit from this technology at different times and to different degrees.
When designing an AI allocation for a Latin American client, where do you start: companies directly linked to AI, enabling infrastructure, or thematic funds?
We always start with the core portfolio—that is, a well-diversified strategy aligned with the client’s objectives and risk tolerance. From that foundation, we add complementary positions to overweight specific themes or sectors. We currently have a positive view on technology, as well as related sectors such as industrials and utilities, and that view is reflected in our asset allocation recommendations. How that exposure is implemented depends on each client. We offer actively managed solutions, where professional managers continuously rebalance portfolios, but we also work with clients who prefer to build this exposure directly through public or private markets.
Beyond the major U.S. technology companies, are there less obvious opportunities that J.P. Morgan is watching closely?
We see attractive opportunities in the security and defense sectors, both in public and private markets, in an increasingly fragmented global environment. We also believe gold remains an important portfolio diversifier. And speaking of diversification, we see compelling opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in an environment where we expect the U.S. dollar to remain structurally weak.
What is the main AI-related risk that the market is still underestimating?
Our main concern is the circularity of certain investments and the exuberance we see in some specific segments related to this technology. There will be winners and losers, which is why careful asset selection and active management will remain essential.
Regulation, geopolitics, market concentration: which of these factors creates the most uncertainty when building a long-term investment thesis?
All three. That is precisely why the foundation of our recommendations is always a well-diversified portfolio across sectors, themes, and regions. On top of that foundation, we add active thematic allocations to the opportunities we believe are best positioned to benefit under different scenarios.
For the Latin American investor who has not yet taken a position, is it already too late, or does the cycle still have room to run?
It is never too late to be invested. We remain constructive on the markets and on the opportunities we see ahead, both in public and private assets. As stewards of our clients’ wealth, whose objective is to preserve and grow their assets over the long term, we believe staying out of the market can be riskier than weathering temporary periods of volatility.
Global pension assets have reached record highs, surpassing $68.3 trillion, but how has their asset allocation evolved? According to the Global Pension Assets Study published by the Thinking Ahead Institute (TAI) and sponsored by WTW, across the seven largest pension markets, over the past 20 years, the allocation to equities has declined by 9%, representing 48% of total assets, while allocations to bonds and other asset classes have increased by 3% and 6%, respectively, reaching 31% and 19% of total assets.
Looking specifically at last year, when pension assets exceeded $68.3 trillion, global markets delivered broad-based gains, with most major asset classes generating positive returns. “Equities performed particularly well, while fixed income also posted gains in light of global interest-rate cuts and narrowing credit spreads,” noted Jessica Gao, Director of the Thinking Ahead Institute.
Looking ahead to 2026, Gao highlights that fiscal support and AI-related investment should continue to be important drivers of growth. “Inflation trends and central bank actions will be key, particularly in the U.S., where strong capital spending and supportive fiscal policy may continue to drive growth and keep yields relatively elevated,” she added.
Change in Approach
The main conclusion of the report is that the current aggregate asset allocation more closely resembles that of 15 years ago. In addition, it argues that the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) has reached a defining moment, as portfolios have moved beyond traditional asset-class silos. “What began as a cutting-edge concept among a small group of asset owners has entered the mainstream, supported by high-profile adopters. This shift reflects a growing recognition that managing today’s portfolios requires whole-portfolio decision-making rather than asset-class optimization, as well as organizational and portfolio resilience rather than simply managing volatility and tracking-error risks,” the report explains in its conclusions.
According to WTW, the TPA framework changes the fundamental question: “It is no longer about how an asset performs in isolation, but rather how each exposure contributes to the fund’s overall objectives, making this approach both a test of organizational maturity and an investment framework.”
In this regard, the report argues that a total portfolio perspective is better suited to the interconnected risks investors now face, including inflation, liquidity, concentration, systemic, and climate risks, all of which cut across asset classes. “TPA supports more coherent portfolio construction by clarifying the role of each exposure, the next unit of risk the fund is willing to assume, and the trade-offs among private market opportunities, liquidity, and long-term resilience. Its focus on integrated decision-making and enhanced data helps investors manage risk over time—not just short-term volatility—and promotes adaptability through scenario analysis and a broader view of risk than traditional models allow,” the report states in its conclusions.
It further argues that TPA is particularly important now because the investment environment is more uncertain, complex, and interdependent than the governance models for which many funds were originally designed. “Rapid technological change and rising political and systemic risks require frameworks that can operate with less certainty and less model stability. TPA addresses this by enabling faster and more coordinated decision-making, supported by better data, technology, and an organization-wide perspective,” the report concludes.
Morningstar has announced the signing of a multi-year licensing agreement that will allow CME Group to launch derivative products based on several of Morningstar’s flagship equity indexes, including the Morningstar US Total Market, Large Cap, Large Cap Value, Large Cap Growth, Mid Cap, and Small Cap indexes.
CME Group will offer derivatives linked to Morningstar Market Indexes for the first time, as these benchmarks undergo rebranding following the integration of CRSP. This will enable clients to access derivatives tied to indexes that serve as benchmarks for more than $3 trillion in assets.
The agreement will expand the range of investment and hedging instruments linked to some of the most widely used U.S. equity indexes. As a result, investors will gain access to tools for managing risk and taking positions across different segments of the market, from large-cap companies to mid- and small-cap stocks.
“We are delighted to collaborate with CME Group to bring derivative products linked to Morningstar Market Indexes to market for the first time. These are among the most comprehensive and representative benchmarks of the U.S. equity market,” said Amelia Furr, President of Morningstar Indexes. “Following the acquisition of CRSP earlier this year, we have become the leading provider of U.S. equity indexes, and this new relationship with CME Group will further accelerate our growth. Most excitingly, we expect to open new opportunities and bring our high-quality equity indexes to an entirely new segment of the global investment market.”
“We are pleased to partner with Morningstar to help develop next-generation risk management tools that are more precise and effective for the global investment community,” said Tim McCourt, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Equity, FX, and Alternative Products at CME Group. “The combination of CME Group’s highly liquid equity derivatives marketplace with Morningstar’s data and index ecosystem will allow us to provide clients around the world with an enhanced framework for confidently managing market volatility and capitalizing on new investment opportunities.”
Harvey Schwartz, CEO of The Carlyle Group, was unequivocal during Insite 2026, an event organized by BNY: the world is undergoing a structural reconfiguration of the global economy that will create unique investment opportunities, and the wealth segment will be one of its main drivers.
For Schwartz, the current moment leaves no room for half measures. “I believe this is the most important inflection point in capital formation that I have seen in my lifetime,” he stated. The argument is straightforward: the major trends that shaped finance for decades—disinflation, declining interest rates, manageable deficits, and global economic integration—have either reversed or been put on hold. The only force that continues unabated is technology.
The geopolitical backdrop is central to his analysis. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he argued, was “one of the most significant events of this century, perhaps of the last 50 years,” and, together with the conflict in the Middle East, it has completely reshaped government priorities. “Everywhere I go in the world—Japan, South Korea, Beijing, Central Europe—the narrative is always the same: national security, economic growth, and political stability,” he said.
But there has been a key redefinition of that concept. “Historically, national security was synonymous with defense. Now it is a much broader concept: it includes energy security and data security.” And that expansion, according to Schwartz, is precisely where private capital flows will be concentrated over the coming years.
Defense, Energy, and Other Sectors Where Carlyle Sees Opportunities
The Carlyle CEO was specific about the sectors expected to attract investment. Aerospace and defense, industrials, and healthcare top the list, all of them increasingly converging with technological advancement. “Look at all the defense investment announcements around the world: Canada, Europe, Japan. The demand is enormous,” he noted.
However, it was on energy that Schwartz made one of his strongest arguments, and where Carlyle holds a distinctive position. “We were the only major private equity firm that maintained a full energy business when energy was unpopular.” That decision, which at the time may have appeared contrary to consensus, now looks strategic: “The conversation around the world has shifted from ‘energy transition’ to ‘energy diversification,’ which is really code for: I need energy security.” Carlyle’s business in this sector ranges from traditional energy to renewables, covering the entire spectrum.
The underlying thesis is that governments cannot finance this transformation on their own. “Deficits are too large. So where will the capital come from? From banks, public markets, and private capital.” And within that trio, private markets—and the financial advisors who channel them—will play a leading role.
Wealth Management as a Driver of Private Capital
Schwartz was direct about the importance the wealth segment will have in this new cycle. “There are 43 million households in the United States that spend $15 trillion a year. That’s the size of China. All of that wealth needs to be managed by this audience,” he told the advisors in attendance.
The executive described how, upon joining Carlyle, he personally set out to listen to financial advisors before making decisions. “I went and spoke with them directly. I asked them what was important to them, about portfolio construction, what their clients needed. And I was surprised by how sophisticated they are. It bothers me when I read articles saying advisors are confused. They are not confused. They manage enormous pools of wealth, as sophisticated as my institutional client base.”
Regarding the product strategy for this segment, Schwartz emphasized diversification as the guiding principle. “You may not own the winning asset that rises 130% or 40%, but you will mitigate much of the downside risk. And as the industry evolves, you have to build the right vehicles for this audience.” The implicit warning was clear: the world is changing too quickly to bet everything on a single sector. “When I arrived at Carlyle, everyone told me the big gap was software. Three years later, nobody likes software.”
Despite the complexity of the environment, Schwartz concluded on an optimistic note. “I believe all of this can be very, very positive for markets. The marginal returns on that capital will be quite attractive over the next decade.” Geopolitical risk is difficult to quantify, he acknowledged, but it also creates inefficiencies that generate opportunities for those with the scale and sector expertise needed to navigate this environment.
Photo courtesyMaximilian Kunkel, Chief Investment Officer, Global Family and Institutional Wealth at UBS GWM.
Sixty percent of family offices plan to modify their strategic asset allocation over the next 12 months. This is the highest percentage ever recorded in the UBS Global Family Office Report 2026 and, according to Maximilian Kunkel, Chief Investment Officer, Global Family and Institutional Wealth at UBS GWM, it reflects “both a defensive reaction to a more complex macroeconomic environment, increased geopolitical uncertainty, and concentration risk, as well as a proactive repositioning to capitalize on new megatrends, particularly artificial intelligence, as well as areas such as infrastructure and emerging markets.”
In addition, a paradigm shift is emerging in currencies: 65% of family offices expect confidence in the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency to weaken in the short term due to concerns about U.S. debt, and 47% acknowledge being overly exposed to the greenback. We spoke with Kunkel about these and other trends highlighted in the report.
Continuing with the currency theme, how is UBS advising clients to structure multi-currency frameworks without compromising the returns of the underlying assets, which are traditionally denominated in U.S. dollars?
With 65% expecting a weaker dollar and nearly half considering themselves overexposed to the currency, family offices are actively diversifying their currency risk. This involves designing multi-currency frameworks that balance diversification with return objectives. In practice, this may mean maintaining strategic allocations to currencies such as the euro and the Swiss franc, while employing hedging strategies to manage foreign exchange risk without undermining the performance of dollar-denominated assets. The goal is to enhance portfolio resilience and flexibility—not to abandon the dollar, but to ensure portfolios are prepared for a range of scenarios.
Interest in AI remains strong, but we are seeing a shift in focus from highly valued software companies toward the physical ecosystem supporting AI. For a fund selector, what is the most efficient way to capture this “second derivative” of AI? Is it time to rotate from purely technology-themed funds into global infrastructure funds?
Interest in artificial intelligence (AI) remains strong, but investors increasingly recognize that the opportunity extends beyond the technology itself and encompasses the entire value chain that supports it, including the energy and resources required for its growth. For investors, this means it is important to take an active management approach not only within the AI universe itself—software, hardware, and applications—but also across the sectors that enable its development, such as commodities, utilities, and industrials, ensuring portfolios are positioned to benefit from innovation throughout the ecosystem.
Historically, gold has represented a modest allocation within family office portfolios (around 2%). However, the 2026 report shows that the average planned allocation has risen to 3%. Are wealthy families increasingly using gold as a structural hedge against the erosion of purchasing power in traditional fiat currencies?
Beyond its role as a safe-haven asset against geopolitical risks, family offices are increasingly using gold as a structural hedge against the loss of purchasing power in fiat currencies. Concerns about rising sovereign debt levels, currency volatility, and geopolitical risks have contributed to this trend. Family offices typically view gold as a long-term store of value and a diversification tool within multi-asset portfolios.
The report highlights a striking geographic divergence: while family offices in Europe and Asia are actively seeking to reduce concentration risk in the United States by diversifying into Asia-Pacific and Western Europe, U.S. family offices have increased their domestic bias from 86% to 88%. How do you explain to a North American family office that concentrating on its domestic market may represent a dangerous concentration risk in the current geopolitical environment?
Global diversification can help mitigate risks arising from domestic disruptions, regulatory changes, or sector-specific slowdowns. It also provides access to opportunities unique to different regions. We believe the most resilient portfolios are those that successfully balance local expertise with global opportunities.
Finally, the report once again highlights a persistent challenge: governance. With the multi-trillion-dollar intergenerational wealth transfer already underway, what are the real risks for financial advisors of losing relationships with these structures if families fail to professionalize their governance today?
Despite significant progress in the institutionalization of investment processes, governance remains an area requiring greater attention. With only one-third of family offices having a defined succession plan and just 27% actively preparing the next generation, there is a risk of losing continuity, family cohesion, and long-term stability as wealth passes from one generation to the next. In the context of the Great Wealth Transfer, professionalizing governance through proactive succession planning and the involvement of younger generations is essential to preserving family wealth, ensuring smooth transitions, and maintaining the effectiveness of family office structures over time.
The Governing Council remains committed to setting monetary policy in a way that ensures inflation stabilizes at its 2% medium-term target. In line with this commitment, the Governing Council has decided to raise the ECB’s three key interest rates by 25 basis points. The war in the Middle East is generating inflationary pressures, and the decision to increase interest rates is appropriate across the various scenarios assessing the possible evolution of the shock and its impact on the euro area’s medium-term outlook.
The baseline scenario in the latest Eurosystem staff projections foresees headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028. Inflation excluding energy and food is projected to average 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027, and 2.2% in 2028 under this scenario. Compared with the March projections, staff have revised upward the baseline inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 due to a higher projected path for energy prices, which is expected to pass through to food, goods, and services inflation to some extent.
The baseline scenario projects economic growth to average 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028, implying downward revisions for 2026 and 2027 due to a more pronounced impact of the war on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence.
The outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to economic growth. The full implications of the war for medium-term inflation and growth will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the magnitude of its indirect and second-round effects. This uncertainty is also reflected in the wide range of inflation and growth outcomes across the updated illustrative scenarios prepared by Eurosystem staff. These scenarios will be published alongside the staff projections on the ECB’s website.
With today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the war. It will continue to closely monitor developments and follow a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach in determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, taking into account incoming economic and financial data, underlying inflation dynamics, and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to any particular rate path.
ECB Key Interest Rates
The Governing Council has decided to raise the ECB’s three key interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations, and the marginal
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will not only be the largest edition in the history of soccer. It could also become one of the biggest sports monetization events ever recorded.
With 48 participating national teams, 104 matches, and a tournament jointly hosted by Mexico, the United States, and Canada, the competition represents an unprecedented expansion of the global soccer product. But behind the sporting spectacle lies a story equally relevant for investors, technology platforms, betting operators, and media companies: the creation of an ecosystem with larger audiences, more data, and more monetization opportunities.
FIFA estimates revenue of $8.911 billion during 2026, a record figure driven primarily by broadcasting rights, hospitality, ticket sales, and commercial agreements. Television rights alone are expected to generate approximately $3.925 billion, equivalent to 44% of projected revenue, while hospitality and ticket sales will account for another 34%.
The economic scale far exceeds the approximately $7.5 billion generated by Qatar 2022 and reflects how soccer has evolved into a global platform for entertainment and digital consumption.
More Matches, More Betting
The expansion of the tournament implies a substantial increase in business opportunities for the sports betting industry.
The 104 matches represent an increase of more than 60% compared with the 64 matches played under the traditional format. Each game generates hundreds of potential betting markets, ranging from final outcomes to specific statistics and live betting opportunities.
The trend coincides with the strong global growth of online betting and increasing technological sophistication driven by artificial intelligence, data analytics, and content personalization.
However, the biggest transformation may be taking place outside traditional sportsbooks.
From Betting to Prediction Markets
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are driving a new category: prediction markets.
Although conceptually similar to sports betting, they operate under a framework that more closely resembles financial markets. Users buy and sell contracts tied to the probability of specific outcomes, with prices fluctuating in real time based on available information and collective expectations.
The line between financial speculation and sports entertainment is beginning to blur.
During 2026, aggregate trading volumes across leading prediction markets have reached record levels, surpassing $24 billion per month during certain periods. At the same time, Kalshi and Polymarket have significantly expanded their market share within the sector, benefiting from growing acceptance among retail investors and participants from the crypto ecosystem.
The World Cup appears poised to become the industry’s next major catalyst.
Streaming and Digital Monetization
Another major financial battleground is content distribution. Audience fragmentation and the rise of mobile consumption have transformed the traditional sports broadcasting model. The 2026 World Cup is expected to be the most digital tournament in history.
The combination of traditional television, streaming platforms, social media, and personalized content will create multiple revenue streams beyond conventional advertising.
Monetization through subscriptions, targeted advertising, e-commerce, and digital experiences is likely to play an increasingly important role in the economics of sports.
An Industry Increasingly Resembling Wall Street
The evolution of the sports ecosystem points toward growing convergence among entertainment, technology, and finance.
Real-time information, artificial intelligence, tokenization, probability-trading platforms, and increasing participation from institutional investors suggest that the sports business is moving toward models that increasingly resemble financial markets.
In that context, the 2026 World Cup could be remembered not only as the largest tournament in sporting terms, but also as a turning point in how global attention is monetized.
More matches mean larger audiences; larger audiences generate more data; and more data creates new business opportunities. The World Cup is no longer just a soccer tournament. It is increasingly becoming a massive global financial asset.
Janus Henderson has announced that it is developing a suite of AI-native tools to transform the way it invests and serves its clients. According to the firm, Percepta, a transformation company backed by General Catalyst, will be responsible for building the infrastructure, while Anthropic’s Claude will serve as the AI model layer.
The firm believes that cutting-edge AI delivers the greatest impact when it enhances human expertise, enabling an even more client-centric approach to both investing and client service. Building on Claude, Janus Henderson is putting this approach into practice in two ways that could shape the future use of artificial intelligence within the asset management industry.
Specifically, it is developing new AI-native tools for its investment and client service teams. On the one hand, the asset manager is working on Prism, a global client intelligence and engagement platform designed for Janus Henderson’s distribution teams. Powered by Claude, it helps sales teams prioritize the right outreach actions, leverage internal and third-party data to better understand what clients have and what they need, and prepare personalized communications. In this way, it provides a single, consistent tool for sales and marketing teams across all regions.
On the other hand, the firm is developing Libros, an AI-native research management tool for Janus Henderson’s investment teams. Also powered by Claude, it synthesizes the firm’s internal research alongside external research and public market data, helping analysts and portfolio managers identify relevant signals more quickly and devote more time to analysis and investment decision-making.
In addition, Janus Henderson is rolling out Claude across the organization. Its engineering teams will use Claude Code, while Cowork will be available to employees in investment, distribution, and corporate functions, further integrating AI into day-to-day work.
Meanwhile, Prism and Libros are being developed in collaboration with the technology teams at Janus Henderson and Percepta. Percepta helps large enterprises transform through AI by embedding specialized engineers, researchers, and product managers directly into organizations and leveraging the Percepta Mosaic platform to rapidly develop agent-based workflows and customized decision-support tools.
At Janus Henderson, Percepta’s teams work alongside the firm’s investment, distribution, and technology professionals to develop Prism and Libros on Claude, and to build the data and knowledge foundation that connects Claude to Janus Henderson’s proprietary research, client, and market data.
According to the asset manager, this integrated model addresses a challenge that has slowed AI adoption in asset management: generic tools rarely fit the way an active manager analyzes markets, manages portfolios, and serves clients. The value comes from connecting cutting-edge AI to proprietary data and rebuilding core workflows around it, which generally requires engineering embedded within the business rather than externally purchased software.
“We believe the AI transformation will fundamentally change the way asset managers serve their clients as it becomes integrated into the core of the business. This collaboration with Anthropic and Percepta, together with Janus Henderson’s partnership with Trian and General Catalyst, reinforces our leadership in AI and tokenization innovation and supports our ambition to be the most technologically sophisticated asset manager in the world. We believe it will improve the way we serve our clients—the 75 million people* around the world who trust us to help build a brighter future together,” said Ali Dibadj, CEO of Janus Henderson.
For his part, Peter Nolan, Head of Asset and Wealth Management at Anthropic, stated: “Asset management is a knowledge-intensive industry where reliable AI can help teams work faster and deliver better client service. Janus Henderson is putting Claude directly into the hands of the teams responsible for managing investments and client relationships—from purpose-built tools such as Prism and Libros to Claude Code and Cowork across the company.”
“Transforming industries with AI requires fundamentally rethinking how work gets done within organizations and designing engineering systems purpose-built for a new way of operating. Our work with Janus Henderson focuses on strengthening research and market intelligence while enhancing client engagement. We are proud to collaborate with Janus Henderson and Anthropic in transforming the asset management industry,” commented Hirsh Jain, CEO of Percepta.
