Offshore archivos - Page 4 of 336

The Trend of “Friendvesting” Gains Traction Amid Structural Geopolitical Risk

Global defined contribution pension plans — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

Geopolitical Factors Like Military Conflicts, Sanctions, and Long-Term Shifts Such as Trade Barriers Are Increasingly Influencing Investment Decisions, according to findings from the report “Friendvesting: The New Architecture of Investment in a Fractured World”, developed by Economist Impact and sponsored by Xtrackers from DWS.

The document reveals that equity and fixed income, in particular, react quickly to political events, forcing fund managers and investors to rethink old assumptions about risk and return. In this context, the report’s authors propose friendvesting—investing alongside geopolitical allies with shared economic and strategic interests—as a core strategy for institutional investors in 2025.

What Is the “Friendvesting Era”?

“Institutional investors no longer treat geopolitical conflict as background noise. The war in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and tariff threats from Washington have turned geopolitics into a central variable in portfolio construction. The firm’s survey of 300 global investors shows a shift: from viewing geopolitics as episodic to treating it as structural—redefining the destination of capital flows, their allocation, and management. The emerging pattern is friendvesting: aligning capital with jurisdictions where geopolitics is less intrusive and avoiding—or at least protecting against—any rising risks,” the report states.

Friendvesting begins with geography: two-thirds of investors state that it is the main factor influencing the geopolitics of their portfolios. For real assets (ports, pipelines, or real estate), location is crucial. But in most cases, investors are less concerned about where an asset is recorded than about its exposure to geopolitical risks that move across geographic borders. In equities, the question isn’t whether a company is listed in Boston or Beijing, but whether it depends on suppliers, clients, or operations in volatile jurisdictions. The new geography of capital is defined less by proximity than by dependency.

Asset Classes and the Shape of Risk

If geography defines the boundaries of friendvesting, asset allocation gives it shape. Different assets carry geopolitical risk in different ways. Some transmit it openly; others conceal it until problems emerge. Bonds depend on legal enforceability; stocks reveal operational entanglements; and real assets are vulnerable due to their physical immobility. For investors, the task is to understand how each asset absorbs and transmits geopolitical tension. This is made more difficult by the unreliability of traditional risk metrics when international conflicts arise.

According to the report, geopolitical risks are unevenly distributed across sectors. Some industries lie closer to dividing lines and are vulnerable to sanctions and regulatory barriers. The study prioritizes technology, energy, and defense. However, the specific boundaries of exposure vary by country. Investors ask what each sector represents—how it is perceived, politicized, and potentially weaponized.

The Bureaucratization of the Unpredictable

Quantifying geopolitical risk remains difficult, which is why nearly half of investors cite forecasting uncertainty as their main challenge. Sanctions and tariffs are hard to model, and wars break out without warning. Institutional responses vary: some firms create cross-functional risk committees; others outsource to consulting firms staffed by former diplomats. Hybrid investment models—combining passive exposures with dynamic hedging—are gaining ground, offering both stability and responsiveness.

UBS Adds María Ángeles Bonany Muñoz in NYC as Executive Director & Family Office Specialist for International Clients

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

UBS Family Office Solutions appoints María Ángeles Bonany Muñoz as executive director and family office specialist for its international private wealth advisors and UHNW clients. The appointment was announced in a welcome post on LinkedIn by Judy Spalthoff, managing director – head of family office solutions at UBS Financial Services.

“In her role, María is dedicated to delivering superior client service by leading complex multi-product transactions and helping design customized offerings based on client needs,” Spalthoff wrote on the professional network.

Originally from Barcelona, María began practicing law in New York at Lester, Schwab, Katz & Dwyer before transitioning to finance, where she spent more than 18 years with the Global Families and Latin America teams at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. She also held senior positions at Morgan Stanley and Banco Santander Internacional, according to the post.

In fact, Bonany Muñoz began her career at J.P. Morgan and remained there for 18 years, serving as private banker for the Southern Cone, wealth planner for Latin America, and private banker for global families, according to her LinkedIn profile. She then worked for over four years at Morgan Stanley as senior financial advisor, before joining Santander Private Banking International as senior private banker—all while based in New York.

Academically, she holds a law degree from the Universitat de Barcelona, is a Juris Doctor from the University of Puerto Rico, Río Piedras, and has a master’s degree in intellectual property and technology law from Universidad Europea, as well as a Fintech Boot Camp from Columbia Engineering. She also holds FINRA Series 7, 63, and 65 licenses and is a member of the Spain-U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 100 Women In Finance, and STEP – Advising Families Across Generations, according to her LinkedIn profile.

The First Nearshoring ETFs Manage to Thrive Amid the Volatility of the Trump Era

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Argentina septiembre 2025 economía — Photo courtesy

Nearshoring in Mexico Remains Strong and Promising

In this context, the performance of financial instruments linked to the phenomenon, such as ETFs, reflects this optimism with very attractive returns that, in the case of the NRSH ETF (the first ETF linked to nearshoring), reach up to 26% so far this year. This return is significantly higher than what the S&P, the Nasdaq, or the Mexican Stock Exchange offer.

So explained Alejandro Garza, founding partner and director of Aztlan Equity Management, one of the few firms in Mexico capable of carrying out a reverse engineering process to decode active investment strategies and encode them into proprietary rule-based indices. This allows them to launch ETFs in New York or Europe and later cross-list them in Mexico to comply with local regulations.

In November 2023, Aztlan listed the first ETF linked to nearshoring on the New York Stock Exchange, a phenomenon that was gaining significant relevance at the time due to the global relocation of supply chains, from which Mexico was beginning to greatly benefit. Subsequently, in March 2024, the exchange-traded fund made its debut on the Mexican Stock Exchange.

“Although the arrival of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States and his trade policy had a negative impact with the imposition of tariffs—definitely running counter to all the investment theses of North American regional integration—now that the situation and the fundamentals of what is being done in the United States have settled, we see that there are still a series of economic policies that encourage the integration of supply chains in the North American region. Mexico continues to benefit from this trend, as does Canada,” said Alejandro Garza.

“Therefore, instruments like ETFs linked to nearshoring have a strong future. Returns are ultimately determined by the attractiveness of the companies we invest in, which are companies listed in Mexico, the United States, or Canada and are direct beneficiaries of nearshoring. Additionally, we must not forget that instruments like ETFs have a long-term maturity,” he added.

Volatility Does Not Diminish the Attractiveness of the Nearshoring ETF

Although the implementation of the new trade policy in the United States has slowed its performance, the balance of the ETF linked to nearshoring is favorable just under two years after its debut on the New York Stock Exchange (November 30, 2023). According to information from the executive at Aztlan Equity Management, $10 million (around 200 million Mexican pesos) has been raised so far, and strong performance has been achieved despite high market volatility and the uncertainty generated by President Trump’s trade and tariff policies earlier this year.

The launch of the AZTLAN North America Nearshoring Stock Selection ETF (ticker: NRSH) for Mexican investors through pesos in the International Quotation System (SIC) of the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV), as of March 2024, has a composition of approximately 57% U.S., 23% Mexican, and 20% Canadian companies in its investment structure. This balance may shift as market conditions evolve, but it has shown excellent results so far.

SEC Approves Strategy to Improve Performance

The ETF listed on the NYSE, the Aztlan Global SMid Caps (ticker: AZTD), launched on August 17, 2022, aims to track the performance of the Solactive Aztlan Global Developed Markets SMID Cap Index, which invests in small- and mid-cap companies in developed markets.

Recently, Aztlan developed and implemented innovations in its first ETF launched to the market. These changes were also adapted to the nearshoring strategy and were approved by the SEC and implemented just this Monday, August 18, 2025.

“The performance of the enhanced strategy would yield a return of 26% so far this year compared to the 8% the NRSH would deliver in its original condition. For this reason, we are very excited to see how the NRSH performs in the second half of 2025 and over the long term,” he explained.

The AZTD ETF was the first one they launched, and coincidentally, this August 18 marked its third anniversary since the initial NYSE listing. About a year ago, certain improvements and innovations were identified in Aztlan’s quant model, which allows better performance while maintaining highly concentrated strategies with stock selection, low turnover, and strong returns.

These innovations were approved and implemented about a year ago in AZTD, and given their excellent results, the strategists at Aztlan decided to apply a similar process to the ETF linked to nearshoring, NRSH. Coincidentally, on the same date—August 18—the implementation was carried out once it was approved by the U.S. regulator.

“Some of the improvements to the NRSH include: expanding the investment universe to companies that are direct agents or beneficiaries of the nearshoring phenomenon in general, and not just players within certain predetermined industries like transportation and logistics. There are now companies in semiconductors, cybersecurity, and defense, as long as they are participating in the nearshoring phenomenon. The other innovation is the inclusion of the stability factor in our Aztlan quant model, which allows us to have lower portfolio turnover without sacrificing strong performance. With this, Aztlan consolidates itself as a player competing through innovation both in the United States and Mexico, and globally,” said Alejandro Garza.

“At the firm, we are celebrating—the performance of our ETFs confirms that we are on the right track. With $35 million in our first ETF, AZTD, and $10 million in NRSH, the first ETF linked to nearshoring, in addition to a unified strategy that will enhance its performance, we are optimistic about the future,” said the founding partner of Aztlan Equity Management.

Mexico Maintains a Key Role in Nearshoring

The optimism at Aztlan about nearshoring and its linked ETF is shared by an analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), titled “Is Nearshoring Dead? Mexico in an Age of Tariffs and Reindustrialization,” which identifies the country’s strategic industries ready to complement the United States, where investments will undoubtedly yield strong results.

Among other points, the CSIS notes that despite the installed capacity in the United States and the shift in that country’s trade policy, the cost of labor and the shortage of workers make producing in Mexico remain profitable.

The auto parts, semiconductor, pharmaceutical, and critical minerals sectors are some examples. Companies in these sectors will have much to say in the coming years regarding nearshoring as they consolidate and/or modernize their production plants and complement the U.S. giant once the waters settle—as is already starting to happen.

Brazilian ETFs See Growth in Fundraising, Rank Second Among Traditional Funds

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) consolidated their position in the Brazilian fund industry between August 2024 and July 2025, reaching second place in net inflows among the more traditional categories.

According to data from Anbima (Brazilian Association of Financial and Capital Market Entities), ETFs received 5.8 billion reais (around 1.055 billion dollars) in inflows during the same period. This volume was only surpassed by fixed-income funds, which led with 96.3 billion reais (around 17.5 billion dollars).

During the analyzed period, twenty-three new index funds were launched, bringing the total to 127—an increase of 22%.

Comparison with Other Fund Classes

Net inflows into ETFs exceeded those of pension funds, which totaled 4.4 billion reais (around 800 million dollars), and exchange-traded funds, which recorded 634.2 million reais (around 115 million dollars). Equity and multimarket funds, in turn, recorded redemptions of 75 billion reais (13.636 billion dollars) and 320 billion reais (around 58.182 billion dollars), respectively.

“ETFs are a well-established product class in developed markets and still have ample room for growth in Brazil. Diversification and competitive fees are their main attractions,” said Pedro Rudge, Director at Anbima.

Most of the assets were concentrated in fixed-income ETFs, which received 4.1 billion reais (around 745 million dollars). Equity index funds attracted 1.7 billion reais (around 309 million dollars).

Market Expansion

This growth is accompanied by the increasing sophistication of the local market. There are now ETFs that invest in foreign assets, combine fixed-income and equity strategies, and distribute dividends—a model authorized by B3 since 2023. There are also BDR ETFs, which replicate international indices to broaden diversification available to investors in Brazil.

Investor Profile

The number of accounts investing in ETFs reached 1.1 million in June 2025, representing a 29% increase over 12 months.

Among individual investors, there are 236,000 accounts: 131,200 in the high-income retail segment, 105,000 in the traditional retail segment, and 468 in the private segment.

However, the largest investors are other investment funds, which represent 698,000 accounts. Within this group, 181,800 accounts belong to brokers who purchase ETFs on behalf of their clients, and 418 accounts belong to the corporate segment.

Peace Talks in Ukraine: A Boost for European Risk Assets and Pressure on Gold

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Throughout August, markets have observed various meetings between the United States, Russia, and the EU aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. This peace negotiation process on the Ukrainian front is expected to carry both economic and financial consequences.

Kim Catechis, Chief Strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, explains that for Europe, these negotiations are possibly “the last chance to avoid a war for the survival of the European model,” while for the United States, “it seems that policy direction is solely in the president’s hands and, as such, is not clearly defined for the external observer.”

On this point, Catechis has the impression that, for U.S. President Donald Trump, “reaching a peace agreement is more important than the structure of that agreement, which implies that the sustainability of any peace may not be a priority.” He even considers that “it could be that the President of the United States loses interest and decides to withdraw.”

Still, he notes a few clear considerations. First, that a clear resolution is unlikely in the short term—within six months—and that “an unstable truce” is more probable, along with “little clarity about the outcome of this process.”

On the economic front, Catechis states that the European defense sector is in the early stages of a multi-decade investment boom that will not be affected by any peace agreement in Ukraine. He also believes that Europe’s focus on electrification will continue “regardless of the circumstances, purely for security reasons.” Even in a potential peace scenario where Ukraine does not become another Belarus, it is likely that Europeans will launch a “mini Marshall Plan to rebuild the country,” which would mean “a significant opportunity for local and European companies.”

As for the United States, Catechis does not see clearly how companies will be affected throughout this process. The expert recalls already known figures: $600 billion over three years from the EU, $100 billion from Ukraine—plus revenues from critical mineral extraction. “It’s likely that the majority of these sums will go toward purchasing Patriot missile batteries, but there is a production capacity issue: Raytheon plans to increase production to 12 per year,” the expert notes.

Nicolás Laroche, Global Head of Advisory and Asset Allocation at Union Bancaire Privée (UBP), is clear that a possible peace agreement in Ukraine could have significant implications for various asset classes and sectors, “though this will depend on the details.”

The expert focuses on the future of sanctions on Russian energy. He believes that any easing of sanctions “would further accelerate and expand” the global oil and gas oversupply scenario, which would put downward pressure on energy prices and “benefit European economies such as Germany.”

Among the side effects of a new energy landscape would be a continuation of the disinflationary trend in Europe, which would improve consumer confidence and corporate margins, and trigger “a sector rotation from defensive sectors to more cyclical ones.” Additionally, Laroche believes that since a peace deal would also be an additional catalyst for further dollar weakness, “domestic and cyclical companies in Europe would likely find a catalyst for a revaluation, given their undemanding valuations.”

In summary, “Europe may be tactically attractive,” but Laroche acknowledges that long-term structural growth and political challenges persist, which makes U.S. equities more appealing to him for generating sustained returns.

Lastly, a peace agreement could tilt the European yield curve upward, according to the UBP expert, due to expectations of higher fiscal spending, “a positive environment for the European financial sector.”

Nicolas Bickel, Head of Investment at Edmond de Rothschild Private Banking, also sees opportunities in Europe in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine. “While caution must prevail, if peace is achieved, it would act as a catalyst for stock markets, particularly for European equities,” the expert states, adding that a definitive ceasefire would result in lower energy prices, which would support European manufacturing activity and industrial company stocks.

However, Bickel does not rule out that the prospects of de-escalation in Ukraine could affect the European defense sector, “as a reduction in deliveries of ammunition and combat vehicles to Ukrainian forces is expected.” Additionally, a more favorable geopolitical context could also put downward pressure on gold prices.

Nonetheless, he believes the correction in both assets would be short-lived, as they benefit from long-term supportive factors: European defense is backed by the €500 billion ReArmEU program, while gold is supported by increased demand from emerging market central banks, which are reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar in favor of the precious metal.

“At Edmond de Rothschild, we believe that the ongoing negotiations could act as an additional catalyst for European equities, alongside existing factors such as lower ECB interest rates, Germany’s infrastructure plan, and the stabilization of confidence in Europe,” says Bickel, who nonetheless prefers to be cautious. He advises against “drawing hasty conclusions, especially regarding the reconstruction of Ukraine.”

Thomas Hempell, Head of Macro and Market Research at Generali AM (part of Generali Investments), takes a more cautious stance. He acknowledges that hopes for a ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could provide moderate support for the euro/dollar exchange rate, “as falling oil and gas prices would reduce Europe’s energy import bill.”

However, he points out that energy costs have already moderated and supply has not been disrupted, so he sees it as “unlikely that the negotiations will have a significant impact on the currency market, as they will be overshadowed by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.”

On the other hand, he believes that the prospects of reconstruction efforts, to be carried out in the event of a peace agreement, could to some extent benefit the eurozone economy, thereby strengthening European risk assets. However, he observes that the path to a peace deal “remains fraught with significant obstacles,” and given that Russian President Vladimir Putin still holds the advantage on the battlefield, “he has many incentives to keep buying time.”

The euro features prominently in the outlook of François Rimeu, Senior Strategist at Crédit Mutuel Asset Management, in the event of a peace agreement in Ukraine. The expert expects the euro to appreciate. He recalls that at the time of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the euro was trading around $1.15, before falling below parity in October of that year. “A reversal, probably not of the same magnitude, seems to be the most likely scenario,” forecasts the expert, who also considers that the prospect of peace may have already partly contributed to the single currency’s rebound over the past six months.

Global Defined Contribution Pension Plans Warn of Insufficient Retirement Savings

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Many defined contribution pension plans are not convinced that their participants are on the right path to securing sufficient income during retirement and believe that reversing this situation will take several decades, according to a new report by the Thinking Ahead Institute, a global organization dedicated to investment analysis and innovation at WTW.

The Global DC Peer Study 2025, conducted by the Thinking Ahead Institute, brought together 20 of the leading defined contribution pension plans from the APAC, Americas, and EMEA regions. Collectively, these funds manage more than $2.2 trillion in assets, including both public pension funds and private retirement systems.

According to its findings, 60% of the experts surveyed indicated that the main concern for defined contribution pension plans over the next decade is ensuring adequate income during retirement.

These concerns are particularly evident in regions where minimum contribution levels are low or where auto-enrolment systems lead participants to believe they are saving enough without making additional contributions. Some respondents emphasized the need to focus on the adequacy of retirement savings—beyond just coverage or participation—as a key issue for future government reforms.

Although many plans already offer gradual retirement transition paths, many members in the retirement phase continue to make late decisions with a tactical rather than strategic approach. Some of them are exploring collective defined contribution schemes or hybrid models that combine flexibility with sustainable income, though such cases remain rare.

The study also revealed that alternative investments now represent, on average, 20% of pension plan allocations, equaling for the first time the allocation to bonds. Equities, meanwhile, make up the remaining 60%. This shift, though quiet, reflects a significant evolution in the investment strategies of defined contribution plans, especially in mature markets such as Australia. Despite the challenges that private markets pose in terms of governance and communication, this move reflects the growing conviction that long-term returns must be maximized, given the limited effectiveness of traditionally bond-heavy portfolios.

A recurring issue among the plans analyzed is the concern that current lifecycle designs are underperforming, especially due to overly conservative asset allocation in the early stages of accumulation. Some plans are considering dynamic risk budgets that adjust over time or the use of leveraged equities for younger cohorts to improve long-term outcomes.

Others are reevaluating decumulation strategies altogether, seeking to better align them with members’ evolving capacity to take on risk. Additionally, the concept of liability-driven defined contribution, similar to defined benefit schemes, has been proposed as a potential future design alternative.

“In many parts of the world, defined contribution systems are now the dominant pension model. However, they remain relatively young and have not reached full maturity, which presents challenges such as income adequacy in retirement, participation rates, and contribution levels,” says Tim Hodgson, co-founder of the Thinking Ahead Institute.

In his view, as the defined contribution system matures, there is a growing focus on the decumulation phase and on lifelong, integrated solutions. “Some countries are further along in this process than others. Most defined contribution plan participants have several decades to secure an adequate pension. However, there are only two fundamental ways to improve retirement adequacy: increasing contributions and generating higher long-term investment returns,” he adds.

According to his analysis of the report, there is a growing consensus that current lifecycle designs in defined contribution plans may be missing out on return opportunities, particularly due to insufficient risk-taking in the early accumulation phase. “However, in the most essential aspect of retirement saving, further progress is needed. Maximizing returns is crucial, but it has limits.

In many markets, most savers need to increase their contributions during the accumulation phase. While financial education may help, it will ultimately be up to governments to determine whether contributions to defined contribution plans are truly sufficient to ensure a dignified retirement for all future pensioners,” Hodgson notes.

In conclusion, Oriol Ramírez–Monsonis, Head of Investments at WTW, emphasized that “Spain is at a crucial moment to consolidate its defined contribution pension plans, considering that only about 25% of workers participate in complementary private systems—approximately 15% in individual plans and 10% in collective plans. We have the opportunity to incorporate best practices observed globally to design a system that ensures long-term sustainable pensions, focusing on strengthening savings capacity and optimizing risk management.”

Trump Dismisses Fed Governor Lisa Cook With “Immediate Effect”

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

U.S. President Donald Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged irregularities in obtaining mortgage loans. This unprecedented decision could test the limits of presidential power over the independent monetary policy body if challenged in court, according to Reuters.

Trump stated in a letter addressed to Cook—the first African American woman to serve on the Fed’s governing board—that he had “sufficient grounds to remove her from office” due to Cook’s declaration in 2021, in documents related to separate mortgage loans on properties in Michigan and Georgia, that both properties were primary residences in which she intended to live.

The U.S. president accused Cook in the letter of having engaged in “deceptive and criminal conduct in a financial matter” and said he no longer trusted her “integrity.”

“At a minimum, the conduct in question demonstrates the kind of negligence in financial transactions that calls into question her competence and reliability as a financial regulator,” he said, asserting his authority to dismiss Cook under Article 2 of the U.S. Constitution and the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.

Cook’s Response

Cook responded in a statement emailed to journalists via attorney Abbe Lowell’s law firm, saying that Trump “has no legal grounds or authority” to remove her from the post to which she was appointed by former president Joe Biden in 2022. “I will continue performing my duties to support the U.S. economy,” the statement from Cook read.

Lowell, for his part, stated that Trump’s “demands lack any proper process, basis, or legal authority. We will take all necessary steps to prevent this attempted legal action.”

Questions about Cook’s mortgages were first raised last week by the director of the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency, William Pulte, who referred the matter to Attorney General Pamela Bondi for investigation.

Although Fed governors’ terms are structured to outlast any given president’s term—and Cook’s runs until 2038—the Federal Reserve Act allows for the removal of a sitting governor “for cause.”

This provision has never been tested by presidents who, particularly since the 1970s, have largely taken a hands-off approach to the Fed in order to preserve confidence in U.S. monetary policy.

Legal scholars and historians say the web of issues that could arise in a court challenge would include questions related to executive power, the Fed’s unique and quasi-private nature and history, and whether Cook’s actions constituted grounds for removal.

Trump’s Pressure

Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates, although he has stopped short of threatening to fire him from a post that, in any case, ends in just under nine months.

Last week, his attention turned to Cook, whose removal would allow Trump to select his fourth nominee to the Fed’s seven-member board, including Governor Christopher Waller, Vice Chair for Supervision appointed during his first term, and the pending nomination of Council of Economic Advisers chair Stephen Miran to a currently vacant seat.

Cook took out the mortgages in question in 2021, when she was an academic. A 2024 official financial disclosure form lists three mortgages in Cook’s name, two of them for personal residences. Loans for primary residences may carry lower interest rates than mortgages for investment properties, which banks consider riskier.

Reaction

The U.S. president accused Cook in the letter of having engaged in “deceptive and criminal conduct in a financial matter” and said he no longer trusted her “integrity.”

Cook’s Response

Lowell, for his part, stated that Trump’s “demands lack any proper process, basis, or legal authority. We will take all necessary steps to prevent this attempted legal action.”

This provision has never been tested by presidents who, particularly since the 1970s, have largely taken a hands-off approach to the Fed in order to preserve confidence in U.S. monetary policy.

Trump’s Pressure

Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates, although he has stopped short of threatening to fire him from a post that, in any case, ends in just under nine months.

Reactions

It remains unclear how events will unfold from here, as Trump has stated the dismissal is effective immediately and the Federal Reserve’s next meeting is scheduled for September 16–17.

President Trump’s decision caused a movement in the U.S. fixed income yield curve, as yields on two-year bonds—sensitive to short-term monetary policy expectations—fell sharply, while yields on ten-year bonds—sensitive to inflation risks—rose significantly.

The market reaction reflects expectations that the Fed could lower interest rates, but at the cost of its commitment to control inflation.

Some firms have already weighed in on Trump’s decision to fire Cook. For example, economist and Fortuna SFP founder José Manuel Marín Cebrián commented that Trump is establishing “true state capitalism” in the U.S., “with a focus against the central bank.” He stated that “Powell’s days are numbered,” adding that Trump has refrained from dismissing him before his term ends but is “actively preparing his replacement” and even “plans to announce the next Fed chair before Powell’s term ends in May to gain time.”

It remains unclear how events will unfold from here, as Trump has stated the dismissal is effective immediately and the Federal Reserve’s next meeting is scheduled for September 16–17.

BTG Pactual Expands Its International Account With Instant Exchange and Digital Custody Transfer

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

BTG Pactual expands international account — Photo courtesy

BTG Pactual announced new features for its international account, aimed at Brazilian investors interested in the offshore market. The bank now offers instant conversion from dollars to reais and the possibility to transfer asset custody abroad directly through the app.

According to the bank, requests for full or partial custody transfers can now be made digitally and securely, thanks to artificial intelligence for the automatic reading of the required statements.

This technology aims to simplify the process. Advisors can also send push notifications with ACAT requests, streamlining the transfer process.

Another new feature is the exchange solution with near-instant settlement. Dollar-to-real conversions can be made on business days between 9:15 a.m. and 5:00 p.m.

BTG’s international account, launched at the end of 2023, is 100% digital and uses the same investment and banking app. With a minimum exchange amount of 5 dollars, the platform offers access to more than 5,000 equity assets, such as stocks, ETFs, ADRs, and ETNs, as well as over 1,000 fixed-income securities and 400 investment funds.

“The development of our international platform continues at a fast pace, prioritizing client convenience, autonomy, and security. We want to ensure that Brazilian investors have access to the best experience to operate globally, with cutting-edge technology and comprehensive solutions,” said Marcelo Flora, partner responsible for BTG Pactual’s digital platforms.

Diagonal Investment Office Adds Eduardo Rehder as Wealth Management Senior VP

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Diagonal Investment Eduardo Rehder — LinkedIn

The boutique family office based in the United States with global backing and focused on Latin American clients, Diagonal Investment Office, adds Eduardo Rehder in Miami as senior VP wealth management, according to a post by the firm on LinkedIn.

“Talent and vision make the difference,” begins the post on the professional social network. “We are pleased to welcome Eduardo Rehder as a new member of our team,” it continues.

The company states that Rehder’s career “combines entrepreneurship, corporate banking, and wealth management, backed by a solid academic background at Universidad del Pacífico, UCLA Anderson, and the University of Miami.”

The professional also wrote on the same social network that he is “excited” to join Diagonal Investment Office “to support more families in managing their investments, with an objective and independent approach, free of conflicts of interest, and always prioritizing efficiency, diversification, and a long-term vision.”

Rehder holds a degree in Business Administration from Universidad del Pacífico in Peru, a Master’s in Finance from the University of Miami Herbert Business School, and an MBA from UCLA Anderson School of Management. He also holds the FINRA Series 65 license and has 15 years of experience in corporate banking and wealth management, combined with entrepreneurial ventures such as Pigal S.A.C., a company he co-founded and where he served as CEO.

“At Diagonal, we believe in protecting families’ legacies, generating sustainable value, and building tailored solutions that transcend generations. Eduardo’s experience and perspective reinforce this purpose and allow us to continue supporting our clients with a global vision and a deeply personalized approach,” concludes the LinkedIn post from the firm welcoming the professional.

Powell Follows the Script in Jackson Hole by Opening the Door to a Rate Cut in September

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Powell Jackson Hole rate cut — United States Federal Reserve

The most anticipated event of the week, the central bank symposium held this weekend in Jackson Hole (Wyoming), did not disappoint. In the most highly awaited speech, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, signaled a potential interest rate cut, which would be the first under the Trump administration.

Commenting on Powell’s remarks, Richard Clarida, Global Economic Advisor at PIMCO, noted that the presentation of the revised monetary policy framework “did not disappoint markets, nor did it surprise Fed watchers,” as the U.S. central bank “appears to be on track to lower short-term interest rates, albeit with a cautious approach.” He considers the changes to the policy framework “sensible and well communicated,” while also highlighting “the Fed’s unwavering commitment to its mandate.”

For his part, Nabil Milali, Multi-Asset and Overlay Manager at Edmond de Rothschild AM, emphasized that before the conference, Powell faced the dual risk of disappointing investors hoping for a shift toward more accommodative policy and undermining the central bank’s credibility by appearing to yield to political pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump. However, the expert believes Powell struck “the difficult balance of opening the door to a rate cut at the September meeting, without at the same time fueling doubts about the Fed’s independence,” through two actions: generally well-measured communication and clear reasoning for future moves.

Milali pointed out that Powell stated that despite recent statistics suggesting an acceleration of inflation in both goods and services, he still considers tariff-related inflationary pressures to be only temporary. Additionally, he noted that the labor market is in a “particular situation,” marked by a decline in business demand as well as a drop in the supply of workers, meaning the unemployment rate “is not yet at alarming levels.”

Even so, the expert highlighted that although Powell’s remarks sparked strong risk appetite across asset classes—as evidenced by the narrowing of high-yield spreads and gains in U.S. equity prices—“the Fed’s decision remains heavily dependent on upcoming inflation data and, above all, employment figures, the latter being more than ever the true arbiter of U.S. monetary policy.”

Meanwhile, Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro, acknowledged that prior to the symposium, markets were pricing in roughly a 75% probability of a U.S. interest rate cut in September. “Those odds should rise significantly following Chair Powell’s comments in Jackson Hole,” he said, explaining that investors got the response they were hoping for when Powell stated that current conditions “could justify an adjustment to our [restrictive] stance.”

However, Kenwell is also aware that the Fed is in a “difficult position,” with rising inflation and signs of deterioration in the labor market. “As economists have observed in the most recent data, the labor market can change quickly—a risk the Fed is highly aware of,” he noted.

Kenwell explained that if the Fed cuts rates too much or too soon, “it risks stoking the fire of inflation.” Conversely, if it moves too late or too mildly, “it risks deeper deterioration in the labor market and, consequently, the economy.” He concluded that “this delicate balance is precisely why the Fed finds itself in a difficult position.” That said, he has no doubt that once inflationary pressure affects employment, “the Fed is likely to step in to prevent further weakness in the labor market,” and that “it is unlikely the committee will stand by idly if we see further labor market weakness.”

The issue of Federal Reserve independence loomed in the background. In fact, Luke Bartholomew, Deputy Chief Economist at Aberdeen, believes that “the elephant in the room in Jackson Hole was the Trump administration’s attacks on the Federal Reserve.” At this point, he recalled that Powell emphasized the importance of monetary policy independence, but the expert is convinced that “Trump’s influence over central bank decisions is likely to increase from here.”

According to Bartholomew, “all signs point to the Senate attempting to appoint Stephen Miran to the Fed before September, where he would likely vote in favor of even more aggressive stimulus than the currently expected 25 basis points.” He also considers it possible that if the administration succeeds in removing Lisa Cook from her post, “another seat would open up.” Consequently, the Aberdeen economist stated, “Powell’s authority could begin to erode in the coming months, with markets paying increasing attention to the preferences of his potential successor. This could make it harder to anchor inflation expectations in a context of rising prices and add pressure on long-term Treasury yields.”

The Taylor Rule Under Debate

Beyond Powell, the most relevant contribution to the conference came from a presentation by Emi Nakamura, professor at the University of California, Berkeley, according to Karsten Junius, Chief Economist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM. In her speech, Nakamura explained why the Taylor Rule has performed poorly since 2008 and why it should not be strictly applied going forward—the Taylor Rule suggests that interest rates should rise more than proportionally to inflation.

Nakamura explained why and under what circumstances that is not necessary, allowing central banks to disregard certain potentially temporary shocks. A key factor, as the expert recalled, is how well-anchored inflation expectations are, “which in turn depends on the credibility of the central bank.” In her remarks, she warned that “the high degree of credibility is due in part to the Fed’s strong track record, but also to institutions such as central bank independence. These are valuable assets that can be destroyed much faster than they were built.”