China’s New Generation of Entrepreneurs

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Una ola de innovación recorre China
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Jon Russell. China’s New Generation of Entrepreneurs

In 2000, I was in the U.S., sitting in my college auditorium, listening to a panel of speakers discuss the whirlwind changes around the development of the Internet. That was shortly before the Internet bubble burst. One of the speakers was a Chinese school teacher-turned-entrepreneur, Jack Ma, who had just started an obscure e-commerce business. Even as charismatic and dynamic as he was, probably no one at the time could anticipate the later success he would find as one of China’s prominent Internet titans. Fast forward about a dozen years and China has managed to surpass the U.S. in online retail sales. In fact, its online sales grew another whopping 50% from 2013 to 2014, to reach about US$450 billion. By comparison, U.S. consumers pur- chased about US$300 billion in online goods last year.

China is often perceived to be a breeding ground for business copycats and has struggled with rampant intellectual piracy. Many businesses have indeed been founded in China based on business models that originated in the U.S. or Europe. But what’s been overlooked in recent years is China’s rising “innovation machine,” particularly in the technology sector. China’s new generation of entrepreneurs, represented by Jack Ma, is making waves and increasingly competitive against Western counterparts. They also continue to leapfrog their Western peers in creating innovative business models.

A good example is one of China’s most dominant smartphone players, Xiaomi. Its latest round of financ- ing has valued the private company at over US$45 billion. Xiaomi has become the world’s most valuable private technology start-up, surpassing all private firms in Silicon Valley whose valuations themselves reach up to the tens of billions of dollars. This is even more remarkable if you consider that Xiaomi was founded only four years ago. Although it uses Google’s Android system for its underlying operating system, this start-up has been an innovation engine. It provides a customized user interface, on top of the Android, that is appealing to end consumers. It has also successfully leveraged social networks to solicit user feedback in a way that has not been seen in the U.S. Probably most innovative of all, it has managed to sell a vast majority of its smartphones online directly to consumers, bypassing traditional telecommunications carriers.

Wave of Innovation

The current wave of innovation among small companies in China has been underpinned by further spending on research and development (R&D). The Chinese government’s favorable policies toward R&D have certainly helped. R&D spending in the country has been rising at double-digit rates in recent years, far outpacing most other countries. Entrepreneurs in China fully understand that, as labor costs continue to rise, and China’s ability to play labor arbitrage relative to neighboring countries continues to be eroded, it’s imperative for them to climb up the value chain.

So, whereas past generations of entrepreneurs set up manufacturing shops, churning out cheap shoes and apparel, the new generation of entrepreneurs is setting up shop in areas such as health care, electronics or online services. I used to be able to consider business models in China by comparing them against U.S. or European counterparts as reference points. But these days when I speak with some Chinese entrepreneurs, I am frequently struck by how often no equivalent business model exists yet in the West. For example, companies are developing e-commerce business models based on such things as residential communities or the selling and distributing of semiconductor chips online.

Even traditional hardware manufacturing businesses, which Chinese firms have long dominated, have moved on to new frontiers over the past two decades. Dozens of small independent and community-operated, techrelated workspaces known as hackerspaces, have popped up across the country in recent years. These collabora- tion spaces allow entrepreneurs who are interested in design and technology to tinker and create everything from drones to robots. What’s different from prior gen- erations of entrepreneurs that exported apparel (given massive government subsidies) is that entrepreneurs are now equipped with open-source software, emerging 3D printing technology and Silicon Valley-style venture funding—or even peer-to-peer lending.

The current wave of innovation among small companies has not gone unnoticed. Increasingly in recent years, we’ve seen multinational companies acquiring small China-based firms. This has happened across many busi- ness segments, including industrials, the medical device industry and consumer staples. They are not merely taking a minority stake as a passive shareholder, but often taking a controlling stake or even acquiring entire companies outright, with the approval of local regulators.

Having talked to many multinational companies as well as Asian companies over the years, I think there are a few reasons why multinational companies are interested in buying small companies in China. The obvious one is gaining access to the local Asian market. Also, the process of setting up an extensive distribution network across many Asian countries—where infrastructure is poor—tends to be very lengthy and costly. Many mul- tinational companies, thus, try to take a shortcut by acquiring a smaller, local firm that already has a distribu- tion network in the region.

Market Competitive Dynamics

The second factor is much less obvious. Multinational companies want to access local technology and R&D resources. This might seem very counter-intuitive. In most industries, multinational companies own the most advanced technology, while local small companies in Asia remain in the catch-up stage. Market-competitive dynamics in Asia are often such that multinational companies occupy the high end of the market while locals are at the low end. Over the years, however, having realized that they’re missing a big chunk of the market at the mid-to-low end of emerging Asian countries, they’ve been thinking of ways to move down the market. At the same time, local small companies, not content to reside at the low end, have been moving up the market.

To attack the mid-to-low end of the market, some multinationals have attempted to simply dumb down the higher-end products they offer in the U.S. or Europe. This approach has largely failed because they don’t have the right cost structure—you can’t support a much lower price point in Asia with U.S. or European-based R&D and manufacturing. Another reason is that a product development approach from the ground up is needed, rather than tweaking edges or eliminating features from an existing higher-end product. Therefore, in recent years multinationals have begun to acquire local small companies in China outright—often a more cost-effective approach than taking time to organically develop their Asian business.

But there is more. Technology gained through these acquisitions isn’t just used for local markets, but also exported to other emerging markets. Furthermore, with reverse innovation, technologies and products developed by entrepreneurs in China are increasingly brought back to the value segment of the market in the U.S. and Europe. In this way, small Chinese companies are no longer copycats; their impact is increasingly felt worldwide.

At the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivered a speech in which he remarked, “Mass entrepreneurship and innovation, in our eyes, is a gold mine that provides a constant source of creativity and wealth.” After decades of running the economy by central command and control, China’s leaders are now eager to promote grassroots-level entrepreneurship. If the current trend continues, foreign investors in China will not lack inter- esting opportunities that could possibly lead to the next Amazon or Google of China.

 

Beini Zhou, is portfolio manager at Matthews Asia.

The views and information discussed represent opinion and an assessment of market conditions at a specific point in time that are subject to change.  It should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy and sell particular securities or markets in general. The subject matter contained herein has been derived from several sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of compilation. Matthews International Capital Management, LLC does not accept any liability for losses either direct or consequential caused by the use of this information. Investing in international and emerging markets may involve additional risks, such as social and political instability, market illiquid­ity, exchange-rate fluctuations, a high level of volatility and limited regulation. In addition, single-country funds may be subject to a higher degree of market risk than diversified funds because of concentration in a specific geographic location. Investing in small- and mid-size companies is more risky than investing in large companies, as they may be more volatile and less liquid than large companies. This document has not been reviewed or approved by any regulatory body.

 

MFS Launches Luxembourg Domiciled High Conviction US Equity Fund

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MFS lanza un fondo de renta variable EE.UU. de alta convicción domiciliado en Luxembrugo
Matt Krummell, portfolio manager of the strategy. MFS Launches Luxembourg Domiciled High Conviction US Equity Fund

MFS Investment Management announced the launch of MFS Meridian Funds – U.S. Equity Opportunities Fund. The fund is a concentrated, high-conviction US multi-cap equity strategy that utilises a disciplined, bottom-up stock selection and portfolio construction process that combines MFS’ fundamental and quantitative research.

The fund is an extension of an existing MFS strategy available through its US mutual funds since 2000. Managed by Matthew Krummell, CFA, it seeks to generate long-term risk-adjusted performance over a full market cycle of three to five years.

“We believe this style of equity investing offers a differentiated approach that can help meet the needs of investors seeking the right balance between risk and return,” said Lina Medeiros, president of MFS International Ltd. “The fund leverages two distinct approaches to security selection through the continuous assessment of fundamental and quantitative research. The strength of this design places clients at the heart of an investment process that has the potential to generate strong risk-adjusted returns in various market cycles”, she added.

The portfolio manager, in conjunction with MFS’ deep team of research analysts, routinely reviews position size and evaluates securities for inclusion in the portfolio. MFS’ blended research approach is widely used across multiple strategies at the firm and also used in investment strategies with more than $13.6 billion in assets under management.

Commenting on the launch, Matt Krummell said, ‘In our view, fundamental and quantitative research are complementary, the inherent strengths of one type of research generally offset the inherent weaknesses of the other. The combination of two independent stock selection processes in this portfolio means that we leverage only our best ideas for the benefit of our clients’.

The fund follows a disciplined, systematic approach to portfolio construction. It combines two independent stock selection processes. When a stock is simultaneously rated with both a quantitative and fundamental ‘buy’ recommendation, it is considered for the fund. We believe these are stocks of high-quality companies, trading at attractive valuations, and have a growth catalyst. Typically the fund may invest in 40 to 50 stocks.  Holdings are primarily eliminated from the portfolio upon being downgraded to a ‘hold’ or a ‘sell’ by a fundamental analyst or the quantitative model.

Lean times?

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La Fed, a punto de pasar de muy acomodaticia a acomodaticia
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Sebastien Bertrand. La Fed, a punto de pasar de muy acomodaticia a acomodaticia

As explained in last week’s FridayMail, by AllianzGI, more and more high-quality issuers can afford to offer negative bond yields. Attractive bond yields are becoming scarcer around the globe, putting investors on a diet. At the same time, the Greek budget is in for lean times, too. Even if Athens has agreed with the “institutions” on an extension of the bail-out programme until the end of June, it will not receive financial support immediately. The agreement will bring some relief for Greek banks, though (not least because Greek bonds will probably become eligible for ECB refi operations again).

Despite the tense situation, not least with regard to the still unresolved conflict in Ukraine, stock prices rose in both Europe and the US at the beginning of the week and crossed the thresholds of 18,000 (Dow Jones) and 11,000 (DAX), respectively. Market participants‘ trust in the central banks‘ willingness to act works like a sedative, and the ECB’s ultra-expansionary monetary policy is a treat for the European stock markets in particular.

Speaking of monetary policy, Allianz GI believes that even though Fed Governor Janet Yellen’s testimony statements were largely regarded as dovish, the Fed is slowly moving towards its first rate hike – while the global bond markets are still not willing to believe that. A repricing of the Fed’s and the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy will therefore remain one of the key investment themes during the coming months, said the week’s FridayMail of AllianzGI.

Meanwhile, the PMIs suggested that the US upswing is still intact, despite recently disappointing data. While the downtrend in consumer prices might trigger a deflation discussion in North America, too, the oil price slide is the main reason for the price decline. In the medium term, the economic uptrend – and the labour-market recovery in particular – should increase inflationary pressures. Interestingly, according to the minutes of its January meeting, even the Bank of Japan does not seem to see any necessity for additional monetary stimulus, as downward risks to inflation abate.

Asian Debt Is Expected to Outperform Developed Market Bonds in 2015

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ING IM espera que la deuda de Asia obtenga mejores resultados que la de los países desarrollados en 2015
Photo: vice1. Asian Debt Is Expected to Outperform Developed Market Bonds in 2015

Asian debt is expected to outperform developed market bonds in 2015, thanks to healthy corporate credit dynamics, supportive global liquidity, stable economic and political environments and investors’ demand for yield.

Joep Huntjens, head of Asian Debt at ING IM said: “Although the anticipated rise in US interest rates may present a challenge for Asian bonds, the Federal Reserve is still only likely to remove its zero-rate monetary policy gradually. Furthermore, the impact of this will be outweighed by the spread cushion offered by Asian credit/high yield and the additional yield offered by the region’s local currency bonds.”

ING Investment Management anticipates Asian credit, including USD-denominated, High yield and Local Currency bonds, to deliver a total return potentially as high as 8.6% in 2015, although the base case is between 2.0 to 4.0%. Asian high yield could be as high as 11.4%, with the base case between 5.3% and 7.3%.

Huntjens said Emerging Asia is once again set to generate the fastest rate of global growth with the region’s largest economies China, India and Indonesia set to continue economic reforms. Lower oil and commodity prices will result in better external balances and lower inflation for most Asian economies and will afford policymakers a greater degree of freedom to enact expansionary policies..

The key risk to Asian local bonds, said the head of Asian Debt at ING IM, comes from currency performance versus the greenback. Aggressive central bank policies aimed at stocking growth and warding off disinflation in Japan, Europe and elsewhere are likely to help the dollar strengthen. However, performance is relative, and versus other regional EM currencies, such as Latin America, Asia should outperform given its respectively lower average volatility.

Higher Returns Thanks to ‘Sin Stocks’

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Mayor rentabilidad gracias al 'pecado'
Photo: Antonio Tajuelo. Higher Returns Thanks to ‘Sin Stocks’

If you’d invested a dollar in American tobacco shares 115 years ago, you’d be USD 6.3 million better off now. If you’d have invested the same dollar in the wider American market on that same day, you’d have to make do with USD 38,255 today.

This 5% outperformance by the tobacco industry over such a long period is impressive – and it’s not hidden behind a smokescreen either. Mark Glazener, fund manager of Robeco NV, summarizes the success in four words: “A good business case. How many products are there that elicit such a sudden moment of panic in users: ‘Have I got any at home, or on me?’ Not many.”

Twenty percent of the Western population smokes – a market share that is shrinking only very slightly – and the demographic development in emerging markets is providing tailwind. The degree of penetration is reasonably stable, but the population is growing and therefore the number of users continues to rise.

And then you have the pricing power, which according to Glazener is of unprecedented importance. “Rounded off, the tax on a packet of cigarettes is four euros and is raised occasionally by the government. And tobacco manufacturers have the opportunity to increase their margins each time the excise duties are raised. Basically, volumes are falling slightly worldwide – but this is more than made up for by the margins. In addition, the production costs rarely increase and tobacco manufacturers are not allowed to advertise – saving them millions each year. Unilever invests 11% of its budget in advertising.”

Exclusion from portfolios

Another advantage is that there has been no major consolidation in the tobacco industry. Barring a few specific American players, there are but three big global names: British and American Tobacco, Philip Morris and Japan Tobacco. The competition from e-cigarettes doesn’t pose much of a threat either. “The nicotine hit from e-cigarettes is much less intense. You don’t get the same level of satisfaction from taking a drag.”

Glazener believes that the momentum in the tobacco industry can be maintained at least until 2020, thanks to the increasing prices that are compensating for the slight decline in volumes. But the prices of cigarettes cannot continue to rise without challenge, in particular because the majority of users are from low income groups. “During the crisis, the turnover in Italy and Spain plummeted because smokers switched to imitation brands, bought via the illegal circuit.”

Tobacco shares are examples of ‘sin stocks’ – shares in controversial sectors and activities, like the weapons industry and alcohol and gambling companies. As a result, these shares are avoided by a growing group of investors that is guided by principles concerning ESG (Environment, Social, Governance). But not by Glazener, who applies the best in class principle for his fund. “Excluding certain sectors limits your possibilities and opportunities as a fund manager and we only do that when it is required by law, like with cluster bomb makers. At the end of the day, you are judged by your returns in the financial sector.”

Immune for headwind

Shares that are excluded by groups of investors tend to be traded at a discount. Due to the taint on the sector or industry, as a rule they are valued lower than the market average. This doesn’t apply to tobacco shares – these certainly aren’t cheap.

The merits of investing in shares in tobacco firms outweigh the disadvantages of the tobacco industry. “As long as these shares continue to perform above average, investors will continue to buy them.” Shares in tobacco will keep doing surprisingly well for now, even against the sentiment of the modern world. “The industry has survived billions in claims, the ban on smoking in public places, shocking messages on cigarette packs and even a ban in Australia on printing brand names on packets. But these shares have proven exceptionally immune to every type of headwind.”

The 5% extra return is obviously just too tempting to resist. Even the pension fund for GPs was investing in tobacco shares until a year ago. It has excluded this industry now, as has PGGM’s Zorg & Welzijn (Health & Welfare) pension fund. A complete end to investing in tobacco shares is not in sight either.

But that time may come, thinks Glazener. “If further government restrictions cause the sector to lose its appeal, for instance.” Until then, investors remain caught in the devil’s dilemma of return versus ESG considerations. Glazener too, despite the fact that the management team of Robeco NV is looking into whether tobacco shares can be replaced in the portfolio – preferably by an alternative with the same risk-return profile.

Jaco Rouw, Senior Portfolio Manager at ING Investment Management Joins Miami Summit

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Jaco Rouw, senior portfolio manager de ING IM, hablará de estrategias flexibles de renta fija en el Fund Selector Summit Miami 2015
. Jaco Rouw, Senior Portfolio Manager at ING Investment Management Joins Miami Summit

Jaco Rouw, senior portfolio manager at ING Investment Management, is set to present on the topic of ‘Global Bond Opportunities: Flexible Approach to Fixed Income”, when he takes part in the Fund Selector Summit Miami 2015, being held 7-8 May at the Ritz-Carlton Key Biscayne.

The event – a joint venture between Open Door Media, the owner of InvestmentEurope and Miami based Funds Society – is targeting locally based fund selectors with the opportunity to hear input from a range of managers.

In times of uncertainty, it’s best to be positioned for various outcomes. For financial instruments, that means diversification. In past decades, the decline in yield levels has been generally beneficial. The latest push has been asset price inflation, driven by the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ. With central banks keeping rates continuously low, investors have responded by shifting their holdings to higher yielding asset classes such as Credits or EMD. But this poses enormous challenges, especially in managing the risk posed by interest rates, currencies duration, security selection and tactical asset allocation. The answer to these challenges has been the use of flexible global fixed income strategies, which employ tools and techniques to benefit from a wider spectrum of investment opportunities.

Jaco Rouw is based in The Netherlands and has been a senior portfolio manager with ING Investment Management since 2013. Jaco has worked at ING IM since 1998 and is currently responsible for global core fixed income investment policy and model portfolio construction. He is also responsible for managing client mandates and flagship fixed income mutual funds. Jaco has had a varied career at ING IM and since 2008 he has also been responsible for currency overlay and the management of dedicated currency portfolios, and from 2001-2008 he was a portfolio manager within the Global Fixed Income team at ING IM.

You will find all information about the Funds Society Fund Selector Summit Miami 2015 through this link.

Agnelli Family Seeks Buyers for Cushman & Wakefield

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Los Agnelli ponen Cushman & Wakefield a la venta
Photo: Fred Hsu . Agnelli Family Seeks Buyers for Cushman & Wakefield

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Italian family Agnelli has hired Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to find a buyer for the third largest real estate company in the world, Cushman & Wakefield Inc, under their control, quoting people familiar with the matter.

The sale could fetch as much as $2 billion, for the company that recorded $163 million in earnings in the 12 months that ended in September, according to the newspaper, and acquired New York-based Massey Knakal Realty Services for $100 million late last year.

The Agnelli family, which currently owns 81 percent of the company, paid $565.4 million for a 67.5 percent stake in Cushman & Wakefield 8 years ago, according to the WSJ. “There is currently no transaction to disclose, nor guarantee that such a review may result in any transaction involving Cushman & Wakefield,” a Cushman & Wakefield spokesman said.

Pension Insurance Corporation Appoints Henderson Global Investors as Part of Preparations for Solvency II

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Pension Insurance Corporation Appoints Henderson Global Investors as Part of Preparations for Solvency II
. Pension Insurance Corporation Appoints Henderson Global Investors as Part of Preparations for Solvency II

Pension Insurance Corporation, a specialist insurer of defined benefit pension funds, has appointed Henderson Global Investors as its sole external Sterling corporate bond manager, as part of preparations for the implementation of a “buy-to-hold” asset strategy under Solvency II. Henderson will now manage a £3.2 billion portfolio, more than doubling its previous mandate.

PIC manages a further £2 billion of Sterling corporate bonds in-house including direct investments in infrastructure. PIC has a total portfolio of almost £14 billion.

Tracy Blackwell, deputy CEO of Pension Insurance Corporation, said: “Consolidating our Sterling bond portfolio managers is an important step in our preparations for the “buy-to-hold” discipline required by Solvency II. The appointment of Henderson demonstrates that our transition is on track. We are of course delighted to be continuing our partnership with Henderson. Excellent credit skills, a strong working relationship and high levels of client service were key to this appointment.”

Anil Shenoy, director of institutional business at Henderson, says: “We are very proud to be appointed by PIC as this is an eminent endorsement of Henderson’s fixed income franchise and institutional client service. We look forward to deepening our relationship with one of the insurance industry’s leading and most innovative companies.”

Stephen Thariyan, global head of credit at Henderson, adds: “Being chosen as PIC’s manager of choice for Sterling corporate bonds reflects our robust portfolio management process and the strength and depth of our offering. PIC has been a leader in its sector for a number of years and this decision is a big boost for our team, which we have been building out globally.”

The Upside Of Seeing The Downside

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Las ventajas de conocer las desventajas
Photo: Jeff Belmonte. The Upside Of Seeing The Downside

With the bull market running well past five and a half years now, the standard three- and five-year performance screens for mutual funds now look really great. Once the calendar turned from February to March 2014, the major losses sustained during the global financial crisis all but dropped out of funds’ trailing five-year return figures (the market hit its low in March 2009).

But those numbers forget that the average economic expansion has been roughly five years in the post-World War II era, and it’s hard to tell right now how your clients’ assets might fare once the bears begin to growl. True, we’re in uncharted territory: The current bull market has extended well past the 4.9-year average we’ve seen since 1950. And with the S&P 500 headed mostly upward since it bottomed out at 676.53 on March 9, 2009, it’s no wonder investors have such a tough time taking alonger-term view. That’s especially true given the amount of noise in the markets and the number of behavioral biases toward shorter-term investment decisions.

Furthermore, if you look back only five years, you’re judging active managers on only half their skill. It’s just as important to see how they performed on the downside, through a bear market, to evaluate their ability to add long-term value. Yes, past performance is no guarantee of future results, and certainly every market disruption is different. But advisors should judge managers’ performance in both the good times and bad times to better understand their investment process and see how they manage risk.

That’s why, if you’re using hypotheticals with your clients, make sure to emphasize the 10-year returns (if available) just as much as the three- and five-year figures. Or maybe look at how fund managers do over periods with significant intra-year volatility — at 2011, for example, when the S&P 500 slipped 20% from late April to October but still managed to close up just over 2% for the year. You can also look at measures of risk and volatility like standard deviation, beta and downside capture. Still, those may not resonate as well with your clients. Instead, show them how the values of their accounts have changed on their monthly statements. Look back at those values over several years, perhaps using rolling 30-day periods, to help your clients see what market volatility really means to their bottom lines.

What’s important is getting past complacency and unrealistic expectations of what the capital markets can actually deliver. We’ve seen a lot of that lately, as well as investors’ misperceptions about what their funds are designed to do. In a recent MFS survey of defined contribution plan participants, 65% of those surveyed believed that index funds were safer than the overall stock market, and nearly half (49%) thought index funds delivered better returns than the stock market. And while strong stock market performance may have helped keep such misperceptions intact, these investors could be in for a rude awakening when the market eventually pulls back.  

As investment professionals, it’s our job to dispel myths, set the right expectations and help investors get a realistic picture of how capital markets perform over time. At times, that’s a matter of questioning the answers. Are certain performance figures enough or do advisors need more context to give their clients a full picture? If active managers are to demonstrate value through full market cycles, clearly there is an upside to showing your downside.

Jim Jessee is co-head of Global Distribution for MFS Investment Management (MFS). He is also a member of the firm’s management committee.

Opportunities in Asia’s Economies

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Oportunidades en las economías asiáticas
Photo: Vinoth Chandar. Opportunities in Asia’s Economies

Unfortunately, in recent times, developed markets have been veering on a downwards trajectory as global growth concerns come to the fore once again. In contrast, we believe the Asia-Pacific region is different: there’s a powerful ‘reform’ agenda creating specific catalysts that may drive markets there.

With changes of leadership in China, Thailand, India and Indonesia, a region-wide clampdown on corruption and a drive to improve efficiency, investor perceptions are beginning to shift for the better, along with share prices. The improving backdrop warrants a closer look.

Chinese SOEs – the lumbering giants are getting fit
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) have been instrumental in the Chinese economic growth story. Recently, however, there has been a drive to reshape these bloated structures into companies focused on shareholders rather than market share or job creation.

The hope is those SOEs with improving operating efficiency should contribute to China’s economic growth, reinvigorate private sector investment and help revitalise the economy by creating a more competitive business environment. Coupled with President Xi Jinping’s well-publicised anti-corruption measures, we believe this may improve investor returns in the medium term.

The SOE, PetroChina, is one of our favoured picks. The new management, installed in 2013, is more focused on the returns from invested capital, which should resonate well with external shareholders.

India – powering forward
Across the Bay of Bengal, newly-elected Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, is beginning to drive real change in political and economic attitudes. Expectations are high, and there is already evidence of the new administration beginning to address legacy stalled projects, by simplifying project approval and land-acquisition processes.Coal shortages are a major issue for the power sector and economy as a whole. With the newly-formed government committed to ‘24/7’ power supply across India, augmentation of national coal output is of vital importance.

Coal India is one beneficiary. With a virtual monopoly in domestic coal production, a lot of cash on its balance sheet, an undemanding valuation and increasing commitment to return cash to shareholders (as highlighted by the recent special dividend), we currently view this as an attractive investment proposition.

Korea – tapping reserves
The newly-installed Finance Minister, Choi Kyoung-hwan, announced a raft of tax measures aimed at unlocking billions of dollars in corporate cash reserves. The government plans to discourage companies from hoarding cash by imposing tax penalties on excess reserves after wages, capital expenditure and dividends have been taken into account. Investors hope this will boost the historically low dividend yields of Korean companies, and hence raise share prices.

We exercise some caution however. While there are changes being made at the government level these have not necessarily trickled down to the corporate level yet.

Indonesia – bringing the islands together
The people of Indonesia, and the third largest democracy in the world, chose Jowoki Widodo last July last year as their president following the failure of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to push through necessary reforms.

Undeniably a long list – first in line is energy, where fuel subsidies have led to an over-reliance on oil and a 20% strain on the total government purse. It’s not an easy task as, even though the knock-on effect frees money for other reforms (around $30bn), it risks social unrest with the impact felt by many companies and individuals alike.

Other reforms include education and agriculture, and infrastructure investment, where a focus on ports, railways, toll roads, and dams (for farming), should serve to decentralise manufacturing and release pressure from crowded urban areas. In this respect, Telekomunikasi Indonesia, the country’s largest telecommunications provider, is one that may benefit from such renewed investment.

Opinion column by Mike Kerley, manager of the Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income Fund.