The British Asset Manager Schroders Has Decided to End Its Presence in the Brazilian Market Following a Global Review of Its Operations With over one trillion dollars under management worldwide, the company chose to transfer its local funds—totaling approximately 1.7 billion dollars in resources from Brazilian investors—to two partner firms: Riza Asset Management and Gama Investimentos.
According to executives involved in the operation, the decision is not related to the Brazilian economic environment, but rather to a reorganization process led by Schroders’ new global management. The goal is to focus efforts on markets considered more strategic and with greater growth potential. The information was published by local media outlet Valor.
The asset manager states that the exit is part of a three-year transformation program implemented by its Chief Executive Officer, Richard Oldfield, aimed at repositioning the brand and pursuing sustainable growth in priority markets.
What Will Happen to the Funds?
Riza Asset Management will be responsible for the credit, equity, and fixed income strategies previously managed by the British firm in Brazil, while Gama Investimentos will take over the vehicles that replicate the company’s offshore funds. Both institutions already have relationships with local investors and will ensure the continuity of asset management.
Data from Anbima indicate that Schroders managed 26.2 billion reais (4.805 billion dollars) in Brazil as of July, and that the majority of this volume—approximately 19 billion reais (3.48 billion dollars)—came from international clients invested in Brazilian equities. This portion will remain under the responsibility of Schroders abroad.
Riza, which manages approximately 18 billion reais (3.3 billion dollars), and Gama, with over 5 billion reais (917 million dollars) in funds from foreign asset managers, will absorb the remaining portfolios.
Gold’s Relentless Climb: Central Banks, Geopolitical Risk, and U.S. Economic Conditions Fuel Bullish Outlook
Gold continues its upward trajectory. It was one of the best-performing assets in portfolios last year, and this year follows the same trend—with new record highs included. All signs point to this momentum continuing. Historically, the second half of the year tends to favor gold prices. Since 1971, average returns during this part of the year have outperformed those of the first half, reinforcing the bullish outlook described by analysts and underpinned by fundamental drivers.
Chris Mahoney, Investment Manager for Gold and Silver at Jupiter AM, is clear in his outlook for the precious metal: “One of the determining factors will undoubtedly be the activity of central banks.” He explains that official purchases tend to intensify in the second half of the year and cites a recent survey by the World Gold Council, which reveals that 43% of monetary authorities intend to increase their reserves in the coming months.
While he does not rule out a moderate correction—especially considering that gold hasn’t seen a drop of more than 10% in over two years—he believes the structural support remains solid.
Another factor Mahoney sees as increasingly influential on gold prices is the U.S. economic cycle. “There are growing signs that the U.S. economy is in a late-cycle phase, which could lead the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy sooner than expected. If this expectation materializes, it would act as an additional catalyst for gold,” he says.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions remain a key driver. The recent trade truce between the U.S. and China could deteriorate, with negative effects on the global economy and additional pressure on interest rate policy. According to the Jupiter AM expert, “a resurgence of tensions would likely favor gold as a safe-haven asset.”
He also highlights the political context in the U.S.: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell‘s term ends in less than a year, and President Donald Trump—a vocal advocate of low interest rates—has expressed his intention to nominate a successor aligned with that view. Therefore, “any announcement in this regard could significantly shift expectations around rates and inflation, which are fundamental drivers of gold performance,” Mahoney concludes.
Bank of America shares a similar view. The firm recalls that gold reached an all-time high after Independence Day but later gave up those gains. To continue rising, the precious metal needed “a new trigger,” and the U.S. budget could be that bullish driver—“especially if deficits increase.”
The macroeconomic context encourages greater diversification of reserves; central banks should allocate 30% of their reserves to gold. Retail investors are also buying gold, and ongoing macro uncertainty and rising global debt levels remain supportive factors.
In short, the conditions that have driven gold’s recent strength appear likely to persist, according to Bank of America: the structural U.S. deficit; inflationary pressures from deglobalization; perceived threats to the independence of the U.S. central bank; and global geopolitical tensions and uncertainty. That is why the firm has raised its long-term price target for gold by 25% to $2,500 (real).
Ian Samson, Multi-Asset Fund Manager at Fidelity International, also maintains a positive view on gold. He believes bull markets for gold “can last for years” as it continues to provide diversification even when bonds do not, retains its privileged status as a “safe haven,” offers protection against inflation and loose economic policies, and benefits from structural trends.
Samson acknowledges that, given a macro base of economic slowdown in the U.S. or even a potential stagflationary environment in the coming months, he remains positive on gold’s prospects. He argues that the Federal Reserve is ready to cut interest rates despite inflation lingering around 3%, and that tariffs will likely keep prices elevated.
Additionally, the impact of tariff policy and a slowing labor market will also trigger a weak growth environment, in the expert’s view. This combination should support gold, which competes head-to-head with a weakening dollar as a safe haven and store of value. “We’ve never seen this scale of uncertainty and change surrounding tariff policy, and the effects are still unfolding. Furthermore, the size of the U.S. budget deficit raises concerns about monetary debasement, which further strengthens the long-term case for gold.”
Meanwhile, the structural case for investing in the precious metal remains strong, and numerous countries—including China, India, and Turkey—are structurally increasing their gold reserves in an effort to diversify away from the dollar, as gold offers diversification without the credit risk inherent in foreign currency reserves.
Moreover, gold supply remains highly constrained, meaning even a small increase in portfolio allocation could move the needle: “For example, if foreign investors were to decide to move a portion of the $57 trillion they currently hold in U.S. assets, gold would be a more than likely destination.”
For now, Samson says he is “comfortable” maintaining gold in his multi-asset portfolios through a combination of passive instruments that directly track gold prices and a selection of gold mining stocks.
As the demand for detailed product information increases—along with the use of alternative investments and the shift in advisors’ investment preferences—the role of the product specialist has become essential. Asset managers that lack this type of role in their structure risk losing competitive advantage to those that do have it, according to international consultancy Cerulli in its latest report, The Cerulli Report—U.S. Intermediary Distribution 2025.
The product specialist has become an important secondary relationship as asset managers expand their distribution. Maintaining the engagement of financial advisors has become a significant challenge for asset managers of all sizes and across all product lines, the report adds.
The research reveals that the ability to discuss competitive product information (40%), communicate complex investment topics (38%), and demonstrate deep knowledge of capital markets (31%) are some of the most valuable skills a product specialist can offer.
“Wholesalers often stand out for being accessible to advisors, providing strong support for client events, and building close personal relationships,” said Andrew Blake, Associate Director at Cerulli. “Product specialists stand out in different ways, and the capabilities that advisors value in them strongly complement those of wholesalers, offering a prime opportunity for successful partnership between the two,” he added.
As the demand for detailed product information across all types of investments—especially alternatives—continues to grow, asset managers must prioritize integrating dedicated product specialists into their teams.
Currently, among firms offering alternative investments, more than half (54%) use a strategy that combines a generalist wholesaler with product specialists focused on advisors.
Just over a quarter (26%) rely solely on a generalist wholesaler, while an additional 15% use only a wholesaler specialized in alternative investments.
Asset managers can ensure they remain at the forefront of client service excellence by dedicating more resources and adopting targeted coverage strategies by practice area, the Boston-based consultancy adds.
“With 79% of top-tier asset managers using advisor-focused product specialists, firms that fail to leverage this role to drive their distribution efforts may be perceived as lagging in client service quality,” noted Blake.
“Wholesalers who collaborate with product specialists can strengthen their relationships with advisors by demonstrating exceptional performance and a commitment to client satisfaction. These strategies not only help address existing concerns, but also foster trust and long-term loyalty among advisors—ultimately contributing to a more resilient and collaborative investment environment,” he concluded.
Bolton Global Capital Announced the Addition of Sofía Bucay and Mónica Calabrese to Its Network of Independent Wealth Advisors, Who Lead a Team Managing Assets Totaling 150 Million Dollars, According to a Statement From the Firm
“With a combined total of six decades of experience in international private banking, investment strategy, and client relationship management, Bucay and Calabrese bring unmatched expertise and a shared commitment to empowering clients through personalized, values-based financial advice,” the firm stated.
“Sofía and Mónica are exceptional professionals who bring integrity, vision, and a true passion for their clients’ success,” said Steve Preskenis, CEO of Bolton Global Capital. “It is an honor to welcome them to the Bolton team, and we look forward to supporting their continued growth,” he added.
Sofía Bucay joins Bolton as a Senior Financial Advisor, bringing over 30 years of experience guiding individuals and families toward financial security, according to the firm. Her career includes leadership roles at Lifeinvest Wealth Management, Investment Placement Group, First National Bank, and Masari Casa de Cambio, where she specialized in currency and investment strategies. In addition to her advisory work, she is the founder of Hablando de Lana, a financial education initiative focused on empowering women and new generations with tools to achieve financial independence.
“Bolton’s culture of independence and excellence aligns perfectly with my mission of providing clients with thoughtful, tailored investment strategies,” said Bucay. “I am especially excited to continue growing Hablando de Lana with the support of a firm that values both innovation and client empowerment,” she added.
Mónica Calabrese, who also joins the firm as a Senior Financial Advisor, has over 32 years of experience in international wealth management. Most recently, she served as Managing Director and Founding Partner of LifeInvest Wealth Management. Prior to that, she held leadership positions at HSBC Private Bank, where she oversaw private banking operations for clients across Latin America. Recognized for her client-centered approach and deep industry knowledge, Calabrese is also an active advocate for financial education among Spanish-speaking professional women, according to the statement released by Bolton.
“Bolton offers the ideal platform for advisors seeking the freedom to build meaningful client relationships while having access to top-tier resources,” said Calabrese. “I look forward to continuing my work in financial education and supporting the next generation of women leaders in finance,” she concluded.
“The Offshore Client Is More Sophisticated Today Than in Years Past; They Seek Institutional-Level Reporting and Want More Transparent Structures, but Still Require Access to Unique Opportunities in the United States,” said Jerry García in an exclusive interview with Funds Society. He is the co-founder, alongside Chris Gatsch, of Alta Vera Global Capital Advisors, a new independent wealth management firm based in the United States that targets UHNW profiles.
García worked for nearly two decades at J.P. Morgan, where he met his current partner, who at the time already had 10 years of experience at Merrill Lynch.
During the conversation, he also reflected on a trend that is clearly visible in the market: “We are at an interesting inflection point. I am convinced that there is a structural shift toward independence in the advisor community.”
And he outlined, almost like a manifesto, how he feels about his own venture: “I always envied those who loved what they did and didn’t see it as a job. Today, I no longer see it as employment, but as a passion. Supporting our clients is a lifelong ambition, and I truly enjoy my day-to-day,” he stated.
More Than a RIA
Alta Vera “is not simply a RIA,” said the interviewee, who was born in Puerto Rico. The company offers wealth management services, capital raising, and strategic advisory. It was founded under the motto of delivering institutional capabilities with personalized execution, helping clients “make complex capital and wealth decisions—whether managing generational wealth, raising capital for a new venture, or hedging strategic risks—with clarity, consistency, and confidence,” according to García’s LinkedIn profile.
The new firm partnered with OneSeven to leverage its marketing, compliance, and operations platform and is part of the Merchant Investment Management ecosystem. Alta Vera works with high- and ultra-high-net-worth families, often with assets in multiple countries; as well as with entrepreneurs and business owners; and with institutions and family offices seeking unique private transactions, sophisticated hedging strategies, or co-investment opportunities. It serves both onshore and offshore clients.
“Large firms continue to consolidate and get bigger. At the same time, clients want more independence and flexible global access. But at the end of the day, what matters most is still trust and relationships. The firms that manage to combine independence, innovation, and scale will be the ones that thrive, and we hope to be at the forefront of that,” predicted García.
The idea of founding an independent firm began during his days at J.P. Morgan, where he led teams in both the United States and Latin America and witnessed the market’s demand for global, sophisticated, and tailored solutions for such families. “Given the conflicts of interest I observed in the business,” he continued, “I wanted to create an environment where this could be done in a much more independent and personalized way—truly sitting on the same side of the table as our clients.”
“My firm and our advisors do not represent a brand: we represent the client and their interests. We have no pressure to push a product or fit into someone else’s box. We can look at the entire market—from large banks and custodians to niche private equity and hedge fund opportunities—and choose what is truly best for the client, not what’s best for a brand,” he reflected. “That freedom makes the advice much more objective and, honestly, also more personal,” he added.
The new firm was launched this summer. García confirmed he is “in conversations with multiple advisors and teams representing billions of dollars in AUMs, even at this early stage.”
The Offshore Client: Increasingly Sophisticated
“In Latin America, the demand to move capital offshore continues to grow,” stated García. “Chile, after the political instability of recent years, is a clear example. But in general, capital always flows to where the opportunities are, and the United States remains a major destination for Latin Americans.”
Regarding offshore client profiles, they “tend to be more sophisticated than in previous years,” he asserted. “They seek institutional-level reporting, more transparent structures, but still want access to unique opportunities in the United States.”
According to Jerry García, clients today are looking for real diversification (not just stocks and bonds, but also private credit, hedge funds, and unique transactions); stronger risk management (hedging strategies to address volatility); and access to exclusive, curated opportunities that don’t feel generic.
When it comes to alternative investments, he sees “strong demand,” especially for U.S. real estate, although they are also looking into sectors such as “data centers, artificial intelligence, technology, and energy, seeking interesting private transactions for our clients.”
In October 2007, García joined J.P. Morgan as a financial advisor to UHNW individuals and families and remained at the bank for nearly 16 years. He served as Managing Director & Market Manager, leading various teams serving the same client profile—first in the United States, then in Central America, the Caribbean, and South America.
From 2023 to 2025, he was Partner & Head of Latin America Wealth Management at Azura, based in Miami. Chris Gatsch, his current partner at Alta Vera, began his career in 2009 at Merrill Lynch, where he worked for 10 years, providing wealth services to HNW clients through the structuring and approval of secured lending. At the end of 2019, he transitioned to J.P. Morgan, where he continued building his business until, in 2022, he launched his own wealth management firm: Lake House Private Wealth Management.
Venture Funding Undergoes Adjustment, But SaaS Stands Out Amid AI Boom
Venture funding is undergoing an adjustment, with a slight drop in total amounts, a slowdown in new investments, and a more selective environment among fund managers. But that doesn’t mean there’s no activity. In fact, according to an analysis by U.S.-based firm Carta, the Software as a Service (SaaS) segment is particularly shining, capturing the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) that is permeating international markets.
Aggregate figures from the firm’s startup network—around 4,500 companies—show a total capital raise of $46.9 billion in new venture funding during the first half of the year. This came from a total of 2,248 funding events.
Extrapolating this, the firm noted that the pace of investments is slightly slower than in 2024. Projecting the January–June figure across the rest of the year, Carta estimates that 2025 would close with around $93.8 billion—below the $97 billion recorded last year.
That said, this slowdown has not been felt equally across all sectors within the venture capital universe. SaaS, in particular, has attracted significant investor interest.
The firm’s data shows that SaaS-model startups in its network raised $9.7 billion in new funding during the second quarter of 2025, far outpacing other industries. In fact, over the past two years, funding in this segment has grown by 91%.
According to Carta’s report, this reflects “the explosion of interest in AI as a tool, with transformative potential for many companies that create and sell software.”
The only sector to surpass SaaS in funding growth between June 2023 and June 2025 is hardware. In that period, capital raised by such startups jumped by 110%. This, they add, is also tied to AI: “Likely influenced by the full arrival of AI and the powerful new chips required to train and deploy the latest models.”
In contrast, Carta highlights that other sectors within the startup space have experienced sharp declines in venture capital fundraising over the past two years. The most dramatic drops were seen in education (down 88.5% over two years), energy (84.8%), and consumer (25%).
A Challenging Environment
The strong performance of software and hardware companies comes at a time when liquidity is less available and managers are becoming increasingly selective.
In addition to less capital invested than last year—so far—Carta also noted that the pace of new investments has slowed “more substantially” since 2024. The number of deals in the first half of the year, they emphasized, fell 10% year over year.
Capitalization round data also show some weakening, with 13% fewer venture rounds in the second quarter. “This marks the fourth consecutive second quarter in which the number of new investments has declined year over year,” the firm stated in its report.
Still, Carta highlights that despite the slowdown, the total number of funding rounds and the total capital raised has remained fairly consistent over the last 10 quarters. Since Q4 2022, most quarters have seen between 1,100 and 1,400 new investments, and have raised between $20 billion and $25 billion.
Moreover, the firm points out that valuations continue to rise—at least in the early stages of company development. “In seed and Series A rounds, the median valuation was higher in the second quarter than it has ever been. Over the past year, the median valuation in Series A primary rounds has risen 20%,” they noted.
According to Carta, the combination of these funding dynamics points in one direction: that the venture capital industry is changing in the early days of the AI era. “Investors have become more selective in their investments, resulting in fewer deals. Powered by AI, many companies are able to do as much (or more) with less funding, reducing the need for massive checks,” they stated. Furthermore, they added, rising valuations suggest that “VCs believe many of these young, lean startups are poised for explosive and lucrative growth in the coming years.”
The intentions of U.S. President Donald Trump to influence the Federal Reserve have recently taken another turn with the controversial removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who has already taken the case to court. This pressure from Trump has not gone unnoticed by experts, who, generally speaking, believe that the consequences of this unprecedented situation are unpredictable.
For example, Clément Inbona, fund manager at La Financière de l’Échiquier, is clear that President Trump wants to have the Federal Reserve “in his grasp.” The expert explains that the objectives of this governmental interference stem from Trump’s desire to influence the institution in order to lower interest rates and potentially reduce the cost of U.S. government borrowing—“widely in deficit and heavily indebted—even at the risk of facing dire consequences.”
At this point, Inbona turns to history to detail the consequences of such actions: the Turkish example “is eloquent,” he states, recalling that the country’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, brought the Turkish central bank under his control in 2019 with immediate economic effects: rampant inflation and a large-scale depreciation of the Turkish lira, which amplified the rising cost of imports. “These consequences could loom over the U.S. economy if the Fed were taken over by MAGA America.”
The La Financière de l’Échiquier manager recalls that the Fed’s independence is the result of a progressive achievement. Initiated in 1935 with the separation from the Treasury, it was consolidated in 1951 with the end of public debt monetization—a tool widely used during World War II to finance the war effort and, later, reconstruction. “However, independence does not mean completely escaping government pressure, as shown by Presidents Johnson and Nixon in the 1960s and 1970s,” he notes.
Still, Inbona believes that, in any case, “Trump’s efforts to get the Fed in his grasp matter little,” as the renewal schedule of the institution’s members “works in his favor”: in 2026 he will appoint a new chair, “which will increase his influence” over the institution.
At Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, they share this perspective. The removal of Governor Cook is interpreted by the firm as an intensification of Trump’s efforts “to take control of the Fed,” a decision that investors understand as a greater likelihood of a more accommodative monetary stance. This environment, they argue, partly explains the drop in interest rates. In addition, the dollar fell again, especially against the euro, due to rising concerns over the Fed’s credibility, according to Edmond de Rothschild AM.
For Tiffany Wilding, economist at Pimco, Trump’s unprecedented decision regarding Cook “eclipsed” Powell’s message in Jackson Hole about a possible rate cut in September. “This event could have consequences for the perception of the Fed’s independence, although the potential impact on Fed policy (and interest rates) is far from clear,” Wilding states.
The expert argues that “this issue goes far beyond Cook” and believes that the accusations “carry political overtones, given the public pressure campaign that Trump has been conducting for a year to push for lower interest rates.” At this point, she explains that although Cook’s replacement would not directly change the voting majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), her position is important because it could shift the voting majority of the Board of Governors on issues such as the appointment of Federal Reserve Bank presidents.
“Each regional Reserve Bank board nominates a president for a five-year term, but the final approval lies with the Fed’s Board of Governors. The Board renews the appointment of all presidents at the end of February every five years (in years ending in ‘1’ or ‘6’) in what is usually a procedural vote,” Wilding explains, noting that when the next vote is held in February 2026, “a Board majority favorable to Trump could, at least in theory, veto or reshape the leadership of the regional banks for the next five years.”
She also notes that five regional Reserve Bank presidents are voting members of the FOMC, with one-year rotating terms—except for the New York Fed president, whose position is permanent—“so politically driven changes to their list could affect policy decisions over time.”
There is no precedent for any of this, she notes, but the expert recalls that some legal scholars argue that “a majority of four members of the Fed’s Board of Governors could remove regional bank presidents outside the normal five-year reappointment cycle, though they would have to justify the reason for dismissal.” In short, this would enter “uncharted territory.”
Cook has already taken the case to court. And now, several scenarios are possible. If she does not obtain a court order against the president’s decision, the position could remain vacant while the case proceeds through the courts. But if the court confirms Cook’s dismissal for cause, Senate confirmation of those appointed to the vacant governor positions remains uncertain, despite the Republican majority.
“Key Republican senators have quietly expressed their refusal to appoint a partisan Fed chair, and we could extrapolate this to the Fed board in general,” says the Pimco expert, who believes the renewed attention on the Fed could make it harder for the Senate and the Senate Banking Committee to confirm a Fed nominee who appears too political, too partisan, or too moderate. “Any confirmation process could be difficult and lengthy, potentially leading to a prolonged period of vacancies on the Fed’s Board of Governors,” she concludes.
There is also uncertainty, according to Wilding, about what individual Board governors would do—even if appointed by Trump and confirmed by the Senate—when faced with the reappointment of regional bank presidents. According to Bloomberg, based on a Freedom of Information Act request, current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman abstained from voting on the 2022 appointment of Austan Goolsbee as president of the Chicago Fed (which was still approved by a majority). However, abstention “has far fewer consequences than overturning decades of precedent and voting to remove a sitting bank president.”
The price of gold began to rebound last year, in a context where both central banks and investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. While many took advantage of the situation to buy, others opted to sell, capitalizing on high prices. The BestBrokers report, based on data from the World Gold Council for the first quarter of 2025, reveals that Poland maintained its leadership as the world’s top buyer by acquiring 48.6 tonnes of gold between January and March 2025.
According to the report, this figure represents nearly half of its total purchases in 2024, which amounted to 89.5 tonnes. The Polish central bank, Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP), has significantly accelerated its accumulation of reserves, most likely motivated by its geographic proximity to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. At the end of the first quarter, Poland held a total of 496.8 tonnes of gold, valued at $53.1 billion based on the May 9 price, which stood at $3,324.55 per ounce.
The document also highlights Azerbaijan, which in March added 18.7 tonnes of gold to the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ), after having made no purchases in the previous two months. As a result, its reserves reached 165.3 tonnes, representing 25.8% of its assets. China, for its part, bought 12.8 tonnes during the first quarter of the year, a lower figure than the 15.3 tonnes acquired in the last quarter of 2024. Although it could surpass the 44.2 tonnes accumulated last year if it maintains this pace, its purchases still fall far short of the record 224.9 tonnes reached in 2023.
Kazakhstan, which led gold sales in 2024, changed its strategy in 2025 and resumed accumulation with 6.4 tonnes purchased in the first quarter. In contrast, Uzbekistan led the sales with a net divestment of 14.9 tonnes, after buying 8.1 tonnes in January and selling 11.8 in February and 11.2 in March. It was followed by the Kyrgyz Republic and Russia, with sales of 3.8 and 3.1 tonnes, respectively.
Meanwhile, the United States remains the country with the largest national gold reserve, with 8,133.46 tonnes in the form of bars and coins. However, Switzerland stands out for having the highest per capita gold holdings: 115.19 grams per person, equivalent to 3.70 troy ounces or 37 small 0.1-ounce coins.
If Poland maintains its current pace, it could double its 2024 purchases, further strengthening its position as the world’s leading gold buyer. In contrast, Turkey has fallen to sixth place in the 2025 ranking after adding only 4.1 tonnes in the first quarter, representing a decrease of 15.5 tonnes compared to the previous quarter. India shows a similar trend, with just 3.4 tonnes purchased between January and March, a drop of 19.1 tonnes from the end of 2024, placing it in seventh position.
In addition to Poland, Azerbaijan, China, and Kazakhstan, other countries that increased their reserves in the first quarter of 2025 were the Czech Republic (5.1 tonnes), Turkey (4.1), India (3.4), Qatar (2.9), Egypt (1.4), and Serbia (0.9).
As for sellers, the landscape has shifted significantly compared to 2024. Countries such as the Philippines, Kazakhstan, and Singapore, which led sales last year, are no longer on the current list. In their place, Uzbekistan tops the sales, followed by the Kyrgyz Republic, Russia, Mongolia, and Germany, the latter two with more moderate divestments of approximately 200 kilograms each.
The French Prime Minister, François Bayrou, has called for a vote of confidence on his fiscal plans, which include €44 billion in budget cuts. The vote is scheduled for September 8, and Bayrou has stated that he will resign if it does not pass. Since this announcement, the main French opposition parties have been quick to declare that they will not support the prime minister’s proposals.
Markets have also reacted to Bayrou’s plans. Notably, the spread between German and French 10-year bonds surged to nearly 80 basis points. Although still below the highs recorded at the end of 2024, it is worth noting that the spread is now higher than that of Spain or Greece. In other words, France pays more than those countries on newly issued debt.
The consequences will extend to other areas. For example, John Taylor, Head of European Fixed Income at AllianceBernstein, expects credit rating agencies to update their ratings on France in the coming months, starting with Fitch on September 12. “There is a high probability that at least one agency will downgrade France’s rating to a single A in the coming months,” the expert predicts, noting that September usually sees an increase in sovereign supply, “which has historically had a negative seasonal impact on European spreads.”
Some agencies have already shared their views on the matter. One such case is Scope Ratings, which states clearly: “political obstacles hinder fiscal consolidation.” The firm points out that political gridlock “undermines” the projected reduction of the budget deficit to 5.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, from 5.8% of GDP in 2024. Instead, their base case is that France’s budget deficit will only decline to 5.6% of GDP in 2025 and 5.3% in 2026.
The agency also notes that net interest payments are expected to rise to approximately 4% of government revenue in 2025 from 3.6% in 2024, in line with Belgium (AA-/Negative, 3.8%) but still below Spain (A/Stable, 5.2%) and the United Kingdom (AA/Stable, 6.6%). Similarly, yields on 10-year French government bonds have risen moderately but steadily to 3.5%, converging with those of Spain and Italy (BBB+/Stable).
While this is not their base case, Scope Ratings believes that a favorable outcome in the vote of confidence would be a significant step forward and would support short-term budgetary commitments. However, they warn that political uncertainty ahead of the municipal elections in March 2026 and the presidential elections in April–May 2027 “remains a key credit challenge.”
Therefore, they conclude that France’s medium-term fiscal outlook “remains constrained by a fragmented political landscape, growing polarization, and an electoral calendar that hampers political consensus on economic and fiscal reforms.”
Credit ratings, along with quantitative tightening and the additional bond supply the market must absorb, “could contribute to increased volatility in the coming weeks,” according to Taylor.
The AllianceBernstein expert acknowledges that the firm had already anticipated this political development as “inevitable,” given the difficult budget negotiations France must conduct with a fragmented parliament. As a result, they have maintained an underweight position in French sovereign debt in their global and European accounts, “as the market seemed to have underestimated this risk.” However, he believes the risk will remain isolated to French sovereign and agency debt, thus reiterating his overweight position on the euro.
Meanwhile, Mitch Reznick, Head of Fixed Income for London at Federated Hermes Limited, says the market is reacting to concerns that one of the widest budget deficits in Europe may not be reversed; the prospect of a wave of strikes and protests; and general economic disruption. “Under these conditions, it’s very difficult to imagine that French risk assets can outperform in the short term,” he argues, while explaining that the rise in French bond yields “could open some interesting medium- to long-term investment opportunities for strong credit profiles.”
The political situation in France has forced Schroders strategists to rethink their strategy. This is revealed by Thomas Gabbey, Global Fixed Income Manager at the firm. “We expect political tension to return in the second half of 2025, as we anticipate that the 2026 budget negotiations will spark inter-party disagreements and lead to new elections.” With this in mind, Gabbey began underweighting French sovereign bonds in portfolios starting in June and increased that underweighting in early August, “as we did not believe the market was sufficiently pricing in the political or fiscal risk of French bonds.”
One of the key themes Gabbey admits to having worked with this year has been signs of European recovery, driven mainly by the manufacturing sector and supported by a sharp shift in German fiscal policy toward increased infrastructure spending. “Renewed political uncertainty in France could derail this European growth rebound, and it’s something we’ll continue to monitor for any sign of impact on business confidence,” the expert explains.
Julius Baer points out that, as has occurred in the past, France’s debt affordability remains relatively high, “given that the country has benefited from a very long period of very low financing costs and a long average debt maturity.” A situation which, in the firm’s view, “should limit the potential for a massive sell-off of French government bonds.” Nevertheless, Julius Baer experts do not foresee a quick resolution to the current political dilemma and therefore believe that “the additional spread on French public debt is not going to disappear so easily either.”
Meanwhile, at Bank of America, they see opportunities in this situation: given the political risk premium, they consider it attractive to hold CAC volatility and protective puts on certain French stocks, “based on a proxy hedging analysis, in case concerns over a government collapse intensify.” In fact, they see room not only for CAC volatility to continue rising relative to the German DAX, but also for the spread itself to widen further “if history is any guide.”
The RIA industry is undergoing an unprecedented stage of consolidation in the United States, according to the latest M&A report from Fidelity Investments. In the first half of 2025, 132 purchase-sale transactions were carried out in the sector, totaling $182.7 billion in assets, representing a year-over-year increase of 25%. This made the period the strongest start to the year since the firm began tracking merger and acquisition activity in 2015. In all of 2024, there were 233 transactions.
More specifically, the second quarter recorded 61 transactions totaling $88 billion in acquired assets, including April 2025, which was the strongest April on record in terms of transaction volume, with 26 transactions. This followed the strongest January and March recorded to date, with 36 and 23 transactions, respectively.
The rebound was marked by record activity in January, March, and April, underscoring the intensity of the momentum in transactions. And private capital remained the dominant force, accounting for 86% of the transactions and 91% of the assets acquired. “PE has set its sights on the wealth management sector, in addition to its investments in vertical sectors such as energy, healthcare, and real estate,” the report states.
In its conclusions, Fidelity affirms that the pace of M&A will continue in the future. “Buyer demand remains exceptionally strong”; the market is not constrained by a lack of capital or interest, but rather by supply: “We don’t see a line of sellers wrapping around the block, but rather buyers lining up. The ceiling appears to be defined by the number of business owners looking to sell their firms,” the report concludes.
Three Key Trends of the Semester
The report indicates that during the period, the median transaction size remained stable over comparable time frames.
In 2023, Fidelity removed the $30 billion cap in its reports to include large-scale mergers (mega-mergers). However, deals under $1 billion still represent around 70% of total volume. In the first half of 2025, the median transaction was $517 million, within the historical range of $400 to $600 million. This reflects a growing appetite for all firms, both large and small, according to the firm.
On the other hand, the first half of 2025 marked the strongest pace recorded, driven by market fundamentals. According to Fidelity’s report, “despite macroeconomic volatility (tariffs, geopolitical tensions), the fundamental reasons for M&A in wealth management — such as advisor aging, lack of generational replacement, and the growth potential of RIAs — remained strong. The trend points to a resilient M&A market, with buyer and capital sponsor confidence intact.”
Another point highlighted in the report is that M&A transactions are becoming increasingly “strategic and structured. A decade ago, mergers were scattered; later, the near-zero cost of capital created a FOMO (fear of missing out) environment. Today, strategic buyers have dedicated teams, structured and intentional processes. In addition, private equity has shifted from being a passive investor to playing an active role in firms’ strategic vision and growth.”
According to Fidelity, in the financial services sector, private capital is expanding its targets beyond RIAs and helping firms acquire adjacent and complementary practices, such as turnkey asset management programs (TAMPs), wealth tech companies, and asset managers.
