Global Dividends Reached a New Record in 2014, But a Surging US dollar Clouds the Horizon

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Global dividends soared 10.5% to $1.167 trillion in 2014, a new record, according to the latest Global Dividend Index from Henderson Global Investors.

Underlying growth, was still robust at 8.8%, even with generous special dividends, exchange rate movements and other factors stripped out. The level of the HGDI reached 159.9 at the end of 2014, meaning that dividends have grown almost 60% in just five years.

Growth slowed sharply at the end of the year, however, as the US dollar surged against every global currency except the Swiss franc. The rise in the dollar was enough to knock $10.9bn off Q4 dividends as a result of the value of income paid around the world translating at a lower exchange rate.  This meant the 2014 total payout was just shy of Henderson’s forecast for the year.

The United States was the main engine of global dividend growth over 2014, adding an impressive $52bn to its 2013 contribution (+17% headline, +15.6% underlying). This increase is more than the entire annual contribution from Japan. Only the US mining sector saw dividends decline, where every company in the HGDI cut its payout.

All other sectors saw increases, as rapid growth in the US economy fed through to company earnings.

Emerging markets saw a headline decline of 11.7%, though after adjusting for currency and other factors, underlying growth was 8.5% year on year. On a headline basis, only China saw growth among the BRICS countries, accounting for the majority of emerging markets dividends as economic difficulties beset both Russia and Brazil in particular. Asia Pacific ex Japan grew 2.9% headline (4.9% underlying) with strong underlying growth in Australia wiped out by a falling Australian dollar.  In Hong Kong investors enjoyed bumper special dividends.

Europe ex UK had an excellent year, up 12.3% headline (6.0% underlying), with strong performances from Spain, Switzerland, the Netherlands and France despite a disappointing performance from Germany and Italy.

France is Europe ex UK’s largest payer, accounting for one quarter of the region’s dividends. A distribution of $55.9bn was 7.3% higher than 2013 on a headline basis (+4.8% underlying). Germany is the second largest contributor, but dividends grew just 3.1% on a headline basis ($37.5bn) and fell 3.9% on an underlying basis. Europe’s third largest payer, Switzerland, grew rapidly, up 18.0% (+8.2% underlying) to $32.4bn, while Spain, the fourth largest, grew fastest of all the big markets, rising 24.3% (+11.5% underlying) to $31.2bn.

Italy is a small dividend payer compared to the size of its economy, and is the worst performer among large European countries since 2009. Its dividends grew 1.6% on headline basis to $12.6bn, but fell 2.1% on an underlying basis. Italy’s dividends are still well below 2009, 2010 and 2011 levels in USD terms. The Netherlands posted $7.9bn of dividends, up 9.3% on a headline basis or 5.6% underlying, with almost all Dutch companies increasing what they paid to their investors.

Japanese companies distributed 5.9% more to their shareholders on a headline basis, despite a falling yen, with underlying growth a solid 14.8%.

By sectors

There was a wide divergence in performance at industry level. Technology and consumer stocks were strong, while utilities and mining firms did badly. Lower commodity prices meant the mining sector cut payouts for the third year running.

With the oil price in steep decline in the fourth quarter, oil dividends are worth special attention. They rose 5.8% in 2014 to $134.1bn, making them the second largest contributor at industry level but further growth will be harder to achieve in 2015.

Alex Crooke, Head of Global Equity Income at Henderson Global Investors said: “2014 was a superb year for income investors, with developed markets leading the charge. After such a strong performance in 2014, we now expect a pause for breath in 2015. Since we introduced our 2015 forecast, three key things have changed: first, the global economic outlook has clouded; secondly, the oil price has collapsed to a six year low and thirdly, the US dollar has surged in value.

“We don’t expect developed market oil companies to reduce their dividends in 2015, but there is a strong likelihood that Emerging Market producers will pay out markedly less this year as their profitability comes under pressure.

“Overall, we now expect dividends to grow just 0.8% this year on a headline basis, to $1.176 trillion. Exchange rate movements are a distraction from companies’ ability to deliver growing dividends to their shareholders over the longer term. Our research shows their effect is negligible over the long-term, accounting for just 0.3% of the world’s 60% growth in dividends since 2009. Of course, in any one year, currency swings can make a big difference. So, while US dollar based investors will see somewhat less growth this year than in 2014, we expect UK investors in global equities to enjoy headline dividend growth of 6.6%, while euro-based investors can look forward to growth of 8.8% based on current exchange rates – in each case much better than the dividend growth their own domestic markets are likely to show, demonstrating the value that a global approach to income investing offers.

86% Thinks Social Media Tools Do Not Add Value To Investment Decisions

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El 86% descarta que las redes sociales influyan en el proceso de inversión
Photo: Hernán Piñera. 86% Thinks Social Media Tools Do Not Add Value To Investment Decisions

According to a poll carried out by CFA Institute, investment analysis includes sophisticated financial analysis, the construction of cash-flow models, strategic and competitive analysis, and various forms of assessing management. However, forming our opinions of a security is only half the battle; the other half is understanding the market’s perception of the very same security — and how that perception is manifested in the security’s price.

Social media can be a tool for gauging the perceptions of others, be it the market’s receptivity to a company’s product or the feelings investors have about a particular stock or bond. Nevertheless, the overwhelming majority of the respondents of the survey among NewsBrief readers rejected the idea that social media adds value when asked on how important social media was to their investment decision-making process. Of the 704 respondents, roughly 86% indicated that social media tools, such as Twitter, are not useful and are even counterproductive. Only 14% believe that social media tools are useful. Are these latter respondents on the vanguard of a new trend in investing? Perhaps learning how to use these new tools to their highest and best use — without getting sucked into time-wasting activities — might sway the masses.

Natixis Has Entered Exclusive Negotiations to Acquire DNCA

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Natixis comienza las negociaciones para comprar la gestora francesa DNCA
Foto: Dennis Jarvis. Natixis Has Entered Exclusive Negotiations to Acquire DNCA

Natixis has entered into exclusive negotiations with TA Associates, Banca Leonardo and the managers of DNCA related to the proposal by Natixis Global Asset Management to acquire their equity interests in DNCA.

The addition of DNCA to Natixis Global Asset Management’s global lineup of affiliates would represent a major step forward in Natixis’ New Frontier strategic plan by making a strong contribution to growth in asset management revenues in Europe, while also offering substantial potential for revenue synergies.

With €14.6bn of assets under management at the end of January 2015, DNCA has pursued an entrepreneurial approach to developing a broad range of high-performing, well-recognised investment solutions for retail clients across Europe.

The combination of the proven expertise of Natixis Global Asset Management’s investment managers, DNCA’s solid investment performance and controlled risk profile, and the strong DNCA brand name would make a substantial contribution to the further development of Natixis Global Asset Management’s global multi-affiliate model and the reinforcement of its existing expertise.

DNCA’s management would remain a shareholder alongside Natixis Global Asset Management and would benefit from a progressive withdrawal mechanism beginning in 2016 that would align medium-term interests and gradually increase Natixis Global Asset Management’s stake in DNCA to 100%.

This projected acquisition was presented to Natixis Global Asset Management’s representative bodies on Wednesday, 18 February.

The planned transaction would provide Natixis Global Asset Management with a unique combination of funds with which to strengthen its position in retail markets.

It would help DNCA step up its international expansion in retail markets outside of France and Italy and deploy its equity solutions to institutional clients by leveraging Natixis Global Asset Management’s global centralised distribution platform and support functions. 

“We hope to welcome DNCA – an entrepreneurial French investment management company with renowned expertise – as one of our affiliates as soon as possible. This projected acquisition furthers Natixis Global Asset Management’s strategy of expanding its multi-affiliate model in Europe and fueling our growth in retail markets through a unique combination of funds,” says Pierre Servant, CEO of Natixis Global Asset Management and member of the senior management committee of Natixis in charge of Investment Solutions.

 “We are looking forward to joining Natixis Global Asset Management and working together on a genuine international project. In view of DNCA Finance’s success over the last 15 years in France and Italy, our preference was to find a fast-growing French group to assist us in new markets, while retaining our own characteristics and our staff’s entrepreneurial strengths. The support and synergies that we will develop with Natixis Global Asset Management’s distribution platform and support functions will help us step up our international expansion,” explains Jean-Charles Mériaux, President of DNCA Finance, and Joseph Châtel, President of DNCA and Company.

Pivotal Role of Digital Media Prompts European Managers to Enlarge Teams

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Las gestoras de fondos amplían sus equipos de comunicación digital, respondiendo a las preferencias del cliente
Photo: Teamwork. Pivotal Role of Digital Media Prompts European Managers to Enlarge Teams

Managers boost specialized teams in recognition of their value in reaching and retaining clients, finds new Cerulli Report European Sales and Marketing Organizations 2014.

The number of digital media teams with more than 10 employees leaped by 15.5% in 2014 compared with the previous year. This increase suggests that managers are reacting to the latest technological trends by hiring specialized people, rather than pre-empting the changes by training existing staff to deal with the advances.

A total of 79% of managers expect digital media headcount to climb further-an increase of more than 50% on those polled the previous year. Only 21% of managers expect to keep their resources at the same level.

Company websites are the top digital media channel used by asset managers to target advisors, institutional investors, distributors, and end consumers, according to Cerulli research. Fully 100% of managers target advisors this way, while 80% of firms use their website to pitch to institutional investors.

It is no surprise that improving websites was asset managers’ most important digital strategy for 2013 and 2014. Several managers surveyed by Cerulli said their company had customized the website with “microsites” containing material that was relevant to specific countries.

Meanwhile, social media strategies were rated less important by managers, compared with the previous year. Cerulli research found that many asset managers allocate fewer resources to social media because of its limited take-up among some channels. Only 45% of managers use social media to reach institutional investors and 35% use it to engage with end consumers.

The challenge for asset managers is to connect with clients across all devices in real time. But social media is more challenging to use as a communications tool in the financial services industry owing to the intricacies of compliance.

Compliance and regulation are always a big concern for asset managers and the industry in general,” says Barbara Wall, Cerulli Associates’ Europe research director. “Communication is tightly regulated and there is less flexibility to be playful or light-hearted when using social media, compared with other brands,” she adds.

“As regulation, technology, and its users mature, this could change,” says Angelos Gousios, an associate director at Cerulli.

“Several asset managers said that the institutional channel prefers face-to-face interaction and targeted industry information, which is easily accessible on blogs and company websites,” Gousios says. “Social networking on a mobile device in Europe is generally more popular with younger age groups, so we might see usage of social media increase as the workforce ages,” he adds.

Lyxor Launches Currency-Hedged ETF Share Classes on Euro Stoxx 50

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Lyxor lanza el primer ETF con divisa cubierta del Eurostoxx para posicionarse en un escenario más volátil en divisas
Photo: Ares Nieto Porras, Flickr, Creative Commons. Lyxor Launches Currency-Hedged ETF Share Classes on Euro Stoxx 50

Paris headquartered Lyxor AM launched the first currency-hedged ETF share classes on Euro Stoxx 50 index, on 17 February. It has a total expense ratio of 0.20% per annum.

Lyxor said that these hedged ETFs, Lyxor Ucits ETF Euro Stoxx 50 Monthly Hedged C-USD and Lyxor Ucits ETF Euro Stoxx 50 Monthly Hedged C-GBP, are meeting investors’ needs “in an environment where monetary policies’ misalignment has contributed to an increase in currency volatility.”

Fluctuations in foreign-exchange rates can affect the performance between the index returns in its local currency and the returns of a non-hedged ETF listed in a different currency.

Arnaud Llinas, Lyxor’s head of ETFs and Indexing, commented: “Lyxor is always looking for new investment opportunities to meet investor needs and has expanded its ETF range accordingly. Our currency-hedged ETFs tracking the Euro Stoxx 50 Index therefore offer exposure to European equities, while mitigating the fluctuations of the Euro against the listing currency.”

Lyxor has currently $6.5bn (€5.7bn) of assets under management on the Euro Stoxx 50 index, covering 50 stocks from 12 Eurozone countries.

Morgan Stanley Recruits Team of Some of the Most Seasoned RBC WM Professionals in Miami

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Morgan Stanley ficha a uno de los equipos más veteranos de RBC WM en Miami
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Jorge Elías. Morgan Stanley Recruits Team of Some of the Most Seasoned RBC WM Professionals in Miami

A team of some of the most seasoned investment advisors of the international private banking office of Royal Bank of Canada in Miami has joined Morgan Stanley. Robert Alegria, Richard Earle and Javier Valle began working at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management last January.

According to information confirmed to Funds Society by sources close to the company, this group of advisors hired by Morgan Stanley, could be increased in the weeks before the imminent closure of RBC Wealth Management’s international private banking services in Miami, which is scheduled for late February.

Richard Earle and Javier Valle had worked for over 10 years as investment advisors at RBC WM, since 2002. Robert Alegria, CFA, had been working at the Canadian firm since 2001, first as a portfolio manager, and later also as an investment advisor.

RBC Wealth Management has decided to end its international private banking business in the US, confirming the closure of its offices in Miami, Houston, Toronto, and the Caribbean, as well as its international brokerage service known by the company as its International Advisory Group. The US broker dealer business continues to function throughout the country. The closure, which was released exclusively by Funds Society last September, has been carried out gradually in stages, culminating at the end of this month.

Quite a number of investment advisors from RBC’s Wealth Management office in Miami have joined other private banking projects within the market.

Safra Appoints 12 Private Bankers from RBC Wealth Management in Miami and Aventura

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Safra incorpora en Miami y Aventura a 12 banqueros procedentes de RBC Wealth Management
. Safra Appoints 12 Private Bankers from RBC Wealth Management in Miami and Aventura

Safra National Bank of New York, Safra Securities, and J. Safra Asset Management, have finalized the recruitment of a large group of investment advisors from RBC Wealth Management, which is closing its international business later this February.

 Safra’s Office in Miami

Safra Securities’ Miami office has recruited Julian Stienstra, former Managing Director Americas Private Banking at RBC Wealth Management. Stienstra has been involved in the RBC group since 1976, when he joined the group in Argentina, his home country. Since then, he has worked at several divisions of the Canadian bank, both in its retail banking division and in wealth management, based in different countries, including Brazil, Canada, and finally USA (Miami). Stienstra joins the Safra team in Miami as Executive Vice President, along with three Senior Vice Presidents, Diana Gangone, Arlette Ctraro and Julio Revuleta, a Vice President, Lupe Wong, and four Assistant Vice Presidents, Nanci Zarate, Claudia Foco, Jocelyn Gonzalez, and Monica Forgang. All of them worked previously at RBC Wealth Management.

Appointments to the Aventura office and to J. Safra Asset Management

In addition, Safra Bank’s New York Aventura office has hired Diana Duys and Cybelle Marinello, also from RBC Wealth Management, both as first VPs; finally, Michael Dejana joins J. Safra Asset Management as investment advisor and Senior Vice President. Michael Dejana worked as CIO for RBC WM in New York for over12 years, and had previously held the same position for 15 years at Barclays Wealth. Mr. Dejana will be working between Ney York and Miami.

Franklin Templeton Hires Portfolio Manager From Ashmore

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Franklin Templeton contrata a un portfolio manager de Ashmore
Photo: Stephanie Ouwendijk, new a vice president and portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton Investments. Franklin Templeton Hires Portfolio Manager From Ashmore

Franklin Templeton Investments has announced that it has appointed Stephanie Ouwendijk as a vice president and portfolio manager.

Ouwendijk joined Franklin Templeton on 16 February 2015, as part of its Emerging Markets Debt Opportunities team which sits within the Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group.

She is based in London and reports to William Ledward, senior vice president and portfolio manager, who leads the Emerging Markets Debt Opportunities team. The team currently manages over $10bn for institutional investors.

Ouwendijk joins Franklin Templeton from Ashmore Group, a London-based emerging markets asset management firm, where she served as fund manager since June 2010. Most recently, she was part of a team responsible for External Debt and Blended Debt funds, and in particular was responsible for CEE and Africa sovereign and quasi-sovereign credits.

Prior to working at Ashmore, she was an emerging markets analyst/portfolio assistant at Gulf International Bank Asset Management. She holds an MSc in investment management from Cass Business School in London, and MSc and BSc in business administration from Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam.  She is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Charterholder.

The Franklin Templeton Fixed Income Group is an integrated global fixed income platform comprising over 100 investment professionals located in offices around the world. The group launched its first fixed income portfolio more than 40 years ago and has been managing money for the institutional market for more than 30 years.

Investec Asset Management Announces Use of Stock Connect in UCITS Fund Range

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Investec Asset Management lanza dos nuevas estrategias en China
Photo: Jacob Ehnmark. Investec Asset Management Announces Use of Stock Connect in UCITS Fund Range

Investec Asset Management announced today that funds within its flagship Luxembourg-domiciled UCITS Global Strategy Fund range will now have the capability to invest in the Chinese domestic equity market using Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Regulatory approval was received in December 2014 and it is believed that Investec Asset Management is the first global investment manager of UCITS funds set up to invest using Stock Connect.

This news follows the award of an RQFII (Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) licence by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and the allocation of its RQFII investment quota by the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

In the near future, Investec Asset Management intends to utilise its RQFII licence and quota to launch two new daily dealing UCITS funds in its GSF range, one focusing on Chinese equity exposure and the other on onshore Chinese bonds. This builds on its range of dedicated Asian investment strategies, including the Investec 4Factor All China Equity Strategy and the Investec Asia ex Japan and Investec EM Equity Strategies.

These developments allow Investec Asset Management to provide clients with direct access to mainland Chinese equity markets across both global and regional products in a product structure offering both flexibility and liquidity.

Greg Kuhnert, Manager of the Investec Asian Equity Strategy commented, ‘The A share market represents the other 50% of the China pie previously closed to foreign investors. Because of our long-term investment in the region and investment hub on the ground, this market appears rich with opportunities for investors such as us who are focused on companies demonstrating improving profitability, return on capital, capital discipline and valuations.’

“The ECB has Disappointed by Acting too Late; There Was an Opportunity to Change the Sentiment a Year Ago”

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"El BCE ha decepcionado al actuar tarde: hubiera tenido una oportunidad de cambiar el sentimiento hace un año"
Amadeo Alentorn, Manager and Head of Analysis for the Global Equity team at Old Mutual Global Investors, who was recently in Madrid . “The ECB has Disappointed by Acting too Late; There Was an Opportunity to Change the Sentiment a Year Ago”

After the last few years of constant increases in the equity markets, uncertainty is once again starting to make an appearance, in response to aspects such as the divergence in worldwide monetary policies, or the political and electoral events which could cause significant changes over the course of the year. In this current backdrop of greater uncertainty and volatility, the proposal of Old Mutual Global Investors, which recently presented in Madrid its long / short global equity strategy with an absolute return perspective (Global Equity Absolute Return), makes complete sense.

It is a totally neutral market strategy with zero exposure to market or beta, and uncorrelated with the market behavior, which makes it a good strategy to diversify risks. “It has an absolute return profile that is generating much interest among Spanish investors and looking for a 6% return over liquidity,” says Amadeo Alentorn, Manager and Head of Analysis for the Global Equity team at Old Mutual Global Investors. Something that has been achieved in recent years with a volatility of around 5% and which has allowed it to increase its assets to 3 billion dollars (of the total 5 billion which the company manages in equity, between this and other long only strategies).

Behind their success lies a systematic model, which, out of a global universe of 3,500 companies with the largest capitalization and liquidity in the world, selects 700, through the implementation of five criteria of a fundamental nature: valuation, growth, sentiment analysis, business management, and market dynamics.

These criteria change their weight and become more or less important depending on the market situation. Thus, the model has a number of historical situations by which it analyzes which factors have worked better, and acts accordingly. Therefore, the emphasis changes depending on the economic climate: if the market falls, the greatest weight will be on the quality of the companies, business management, etc., factors that tend to work better. “Currently, the sentiment is neutral: there is still risk aversion, despite the ECB. Although volatility will grow, and is greater than in the past, it’s still not too high. The current economic climate values strong balance sheets and the quality of the companies, the most defensive stocks; and valuation criteria do not work too well,” says the manager. In his opinion, the ECB has disappointed markets by acting too late, and a year ago would have had the opportunity to change the sentiment; hence he predicts lateral movements in the markets and increased volatility.

The model, which gets its profitability mainly from stock selection (i.e. choosing the securities on the long side to be better than short), also gets profitability through sector positions, which can afford to have some exposure: for example, they are short on energy securities and long in defensive sectors such as the health sector or utilities. In fact, amongst their long positions in Spain these sectors stand out, in securities such as Iberdrola and REE, for the strength of their balance sheets and sustainable growth of the sector. But regardless of sector positions, exposure is zero in currency, regional positions, or by country, the manager explains.

Amadeo Alentorn, Manager and Head of Analysis for the Global Equity team at Old Mutual Global Investors, works from London within a team consisting of two others managers, analysts, and training experts.