Michael Roberge, MFS’ CIO and co-CEO, was recently in Miami where he met with more than 120 investors in two events organized by Jose Corena, Managing Director for the aforementioned management company, together with Paul Britto, Regional Director, and Natalia Rodriguez, Internal Wholesaler.
Roberge, who has been working with the company for the past 20 years, began his review of the global macroeconomic and business landscape by emphasizing the huge disconnect between what markets are discounting and the realities of the economy. The current environment is much more favorable than a year ago, because, according to MFS’ co-CEO, market downturns have led to more attractive entry prices. “It is undeniable that there are risks. A year ago the markets were calm and everyone was buying, even though all asset classes were overvalued,” he pointed out.
But the fear factor currently extending through the market is not so much a concern over valuations, but is more focused on the possibility of a recession on the horizon. For Roberge, even if the market discount rate reflects a scenario of great pessimism, the United States will not fall into recession in 2016.
“Consumption accounts for seventy percent of US GDP, and its health is enviable. The unemployment rate is declining and heading towards 4%; real wages are rising by about 2-2.5%; and the price of energy has fallen considerably in the last 18 months — which for the consumer’s disposable income is comparable to a tax cut” he claimed.
“US manufacturing, which accounts for about 10% of the overall economy, is underperforming the consumer-oriented sectors of the US economy,” he said. “This is due to both a stronger dollar, which hurts exports, as well as a clean-up of accumulated inventories during the past year. Once these inventories have been depleted, it is likely that the manufacturing sector will not continue to be a drag on GDP growth.”
Finally, Roberge said that the public sector, which in recent years has either been neutral or has had a negative contribution, will contribute between 0.6% and 0.7% to GDP growth in 2016 through a combination of tax cuts and increased spending. “In short, the US economy is in good shape. Doing the math, it seems highly unlikely that the US goes into recession unless an exogenous factor which significantly affects consumer confidence takes place,” he explained to attendees. The factors which could affect consumption are gasoline prices and interest rates, neither of which appears to be going up this year.
Global Growth
With respect to global growth, a stronger US dollar helps Europe, as it favors exporters, and ultimately its manufacturing sector. The MFS executive believes this will last throughout 2016. He also believes the Old Continent is benefiting greatly from low energy prices. For its part, Japan is not likely to contribute in any great measure to global growth this year. Finally, emerging markets are expected to be the part of the world that will continue to deteriorate in 2016. “Continued pressure from China means they will grow, but less than last year. If we look at the world as a whole, I think there is a very low probability of falling into recession. It is the market which is mistaken and not the fundamentals of the economy,” he said.
With all of this on the table, MFS’ advice for investors is to consider equities over high quality bonds. The reason, he said, is very simple. The average dividend yield currently stands at 2.4%, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is 2%. So unless the economy falls into recession, “which is something we do not believe will happen, it is better to have an emphasis on equities, given the current lack of profitability in the bond market.”
Limited Opportunities in Fixed Income
Among the few opportunities currently offered by fixed income securities, Roberge mentioned the high yield bond market, where the average yield is around 9%. “It will probably beat equities this year,” therefore, he believes it’s a good idea to include this asset in a portfolio. “We believe that the market is being a lot more pessimistic about high yield market conditions than our own vision of what will really happen. The key factors here are volatility and liquidity, two factors which are of great concern, but the market has already discounted both of those risks. This year, high yield should perform much better than US Treasuries and, in our opinion, also much better than stocks.”
MFS’ co-CEO also opts for dollar-denominated emerging market debt, and explains that “during the last five or six years, we have seen a flattening in the debt curve of developed countries, due to the slowdown in growth and the monetary policies of central banks, and we believe that the next debt cycle will favor emerging markets. We prefer debt issued in dollars because local currencies are still exposed to risk from China, to the price risk of raw materials, and to what the Fed does throughout the year,” he added.
The market is expecting the Fed to raise interest rates again in March, but MFS does not believe that will be the case. Roberge ventures that the board headed by Janet Yellen will go easy. “It is likely that this time it may be the Fed which moves the market and not vice versa. It will be difficult for the board to raise interest rates since the major central banks in the developed world continue easing monetary policy due to global deflationary pressures. Therefore, we do not see the Fed raising rates four times this year, and have positioned our portfolios accordingly,” he said.
In his analysis of Latin American countries, MFS’ co-CEO explained that there is dollar-denominated Mexican debt in their portfolios, and Argentine debt has recently been added as a result of the political changes brought about by recent elections. With respect to Venezuela, given political circumstances and the price of oil, the Boston-based firm believes that at some point it will have to restructure its debt because its current levels are unsustainable.
“Brazil has a lot of challenges,” he said. “The economy is stagnant, inflation is high, and the central bank has little room for maneuver; added to all this is the political turmoil as a result of corruption exposed during the last year. These factors make it almost impossible to implement the reforms which the country needs.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Keith Ney, Fixed Income Fund Manager at Carmignac. Keith Ney, Fund Manager at Carmignac, Will Analyze The Challenges of The Fixed Income Markets at The Funds Selector Summit in Miami
After a secular bull market lasting 30 years, fixed income is now facing a challenging phase. Following a long period of monetary policies that have kept interest rates low in the United States, the Federal Reserve appears to have embarked on a normalization process. By contrast, European and Japanese rates seem to have reached historic lows due to the support of interventions by central banks. Additionally a combination of increased quantitative easing and lower trading liquidity has exacerbated the volatility of this asset class.
Keith Ney, Fixed Income Fund Manager at Carmignac, will present Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond’s investment allocation under the title “Alpha generation in an uncertain fixed income environment” at the Second Edition of the Funds Selector Summit to be held on 28th and 29th of April, where he will explain how they have been able to achieve performance by investing across sovereign, credit, and currency markets,
The conference, aimed at leading funds selectors and investors from the US-Offshore business, will be held at the Ritz-Carlton Key Biscayne. The event-a joint venture between Open Door Media, owner of InvestmentEurope, and Fund Society- will provide an opportunity to hear the view of several managers on the current state of the industry.
Keith Ney, who joined Carmignac Gestion in 2005, has been Fund Manager for Carmignac Securite since 2013. Prior to that, he worked as an analyst for Lawndale Capital Management from 1999 to 2005. Keith holds a Bachelor of Science in Business Administration from the University of California at Berkeley, and is a CFA Charter holder since 2002.
You can find all the information about the Fund Selector Miami Summit 2016, aimed at leading fund selectors and investors from the US-Offshore business, through this link.
Rahul Chadha, CIO at Mirae Asset Global Investments.. mirae
Jung Ho Rhee, CEO at Mirae Asset Global Investments, explains in this interview with Funds Society all the details about its success in Asia and its international growth in markets as Europe, Asia, Latin America, Australia and USA, where the firm looks to expand also in the offshore market.
Mirae Asset Global Investments was established in 1997 at the height of the Asian economic and currency crisis…How has this timing marked the nature of the firm?
It may be counter intuitive, the financial crisis created tremendous opportunities for Mirae Asset. Mirae Asset Global Investments was established in 1997 during which regulation in Korea was relaxed following the Asian financial crisis. Our firm started off as the first asset management company in Korea when mutual funds were largely unheard of by the Korean population. With years of vigorous investor education, our firm created a market for our products. In other words, Mirae Asset transformed the asset management industry in Korea. Now, we are the largest asset management company in Korea by AUM. Our firm’s ambition is not only to establish a presence in Korea, but also provide global investors best-in-class financial products. To that, our firm set up overseas office in Hong Kong in 2003 which managed regional and global funds to be sold to Korean and global investors. Since then, we have set up offices in India and Brazil to bolster our onshore fund offerings. In 2007, we established our UK office to boost our SICAV fund distribution capability throughout Europe. As of end October 2015, Mirae Asset Global Investments Group’s AUM amounted to USD 77.6 billion. All I can say is that our firm is resilient and has grown exponentially amid adverse macro condition.
Since then, what are the main challenges in managing Asian assets? How has your investment philosophy evolved?
The main challenge in managing Asian assets is that Asia is a unique and diverse region, whose constituent countries and sectors all possess different attributes, are all at different levels of development and maturity, and are driven by different cultural trends and consumer habits. In order to be successful, asset managers need to possess deep understanding of and insights into the economies and culture of the region. Mirae Asset is a company with an Asian heritage. We have a strong team of investment professionals focusing on the Asian markets and seven offices across Asia-Pacific. Our investment philosophy is focused on identifying long-term winners that possess sustainable competitiveness, and our investment process is driven by our on-the-ground research process. This allows us to construct compact, high conviction portfolios that shun “benchmark approaches” and achieve real alpha for our investors.
Regarding your international expansion, it started in 2003. Beyond Asia, you have presence in UK, Colombia, Brazil, USA and Canada but, where else are you selling your funds?
We are selling our Luxembourg-domiciled SICAV funds into Asia, Europe and Latin America. Our India office offers local domiciled funds for Indian investors. In the US, we are selling our local domiciled funds to US investors, but we are thinking about expanding our SICAV offerings in the US through wholesale channels to non-US citizens.
What are going to be your next steps in your international expansion?
Our expansion plan is on multi-pronged approach. We will continue to grow assets through expanding geographically, strengthening our relationships with clients and investment consultants, as well as widening our product offering. Recently, we have hired Marko Tutavac as head of consultant relationships based in Hong Kong, and Chris Wildman as head of Australia sales in Sydney. As our firm had gained ground in wholesale distribution in Europe and Asia and now wanted to further grow its institutional business, which was reflected in the new hires.
Tutavac is tasked with cultivating the firm’s relationship with global investment consultants and ratings agencies in Asia. He was hired from Fidelity Worldwide Investment, where he was associate director for institutional business for Asia ex-Japan. Wildman is responsible for driving the distribution of Mirae Asset’s fund particularly in the institutional marketplace. He was hired from AMP Capital, where most recently he was an institutional business executive. One of our recent product development initiatives is collaborating with Daiwa Asset Management to co-manage the Mirae Asset Next Asia Pacific Equity fund. The fund is domiciled in Luxembourg and Korea and we are now planning to domicile in Japan to cater for global investors’ appetite on Asia Pacific including Japan equities. We received a substantial amount of requests and interest regarding the launch of this fund from European investors. We will continue to explore expansion opportunities in different directions.
What products do you use for your international growth?
Our Ucits fund range has seen AUM triple in past two years to $2 billion, largely driven by flows from institutions and wholesale clients in Europe. We have seen significant interest in our SICAV funds globally. In particular, Mirae Asset Asia Great Consumer Equity Fund and Mirae Asset Asia Sector Leader Equity Fund have consistently outperformed the benchmark and gained traction among our clients. As I mentioned earlier, we collaborate with Daiwa Asset Management to co-manage the Mirae Asset Next Asia Pacific Equity fund. The fund is domiciled in Luxembourg and Korea and we are now planning to domicile in Japan to cater for global investors’ appetite on Asia Pacific including Japan equities.
Your AUM reach over $70 bn…What are your objectives for the coming years?
Our objective in the coming year is to continue our distribution efforts in SICAV funds across Europe, Asia and Latin America. As I mentioned earlier, we have recently hired our head of Australia sales, we will step up our distribution efforts in Australia.
Why did you choose a “team-based approach” model instead of betting on star fund managers or great individual talents?
We believe that a team-based approach, where a team of talented investment professionals work collaboratively, each focusing on and being accountable for their area of expertise is the best way to achieve long-term outperformance. This is borne out by our own experience and by independent academic research. Reliance on star investment managers may work for some asset management companies but we believe that it limits the scope, breadth and depth of investment ideas and is susceptible to personal bias. Furthermore, a structure dominated by a few key persons increases risks, whereas we believe that a team approach minimizes risks, including key man risks.
Risk analysis and factors like valuations, liquidity or governance are key in your investment philosophy, which one of these three factors is the biggest threat in Asia nowadays?
All of these issues are important for investors to consider. However, investors should be aware that Asia has seen rapid growth in the total investible universe of companies while continued efforts at improving market access, such as the recent Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme, have contributed to marked upgrades in liquidity. In addition, several Asian governments and regulators are making continued efforts to implement improvements to corporate governance. All of these are positive measures, which will contribute to Asia’s ongoing evolution as an accessible, efficient and transparent market for investors looking for stable and diversified investment opportunities. The advantage that Mirae Asset Global Investments offers is that we are a company with a unique heritage and presence in Asia – this means that we have a deep understanding of the Asian markets. Our on-the-ground research presence by our research analysts in Asia means that we are able to make first hand checks on issues related to liquidity and corporate governance before we make investments, and keep performing ongoing checks on all stocks in our portfolios. In particular, as signatories of United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment, Mirae Asset Global Investments has a firm responsibility to ensure that issues of corporate governance are fully taken into consideration in our investment decisions.
China is in historical key moment, in the midst of a transition to a consumer economy. How do you value the difficulty and implications of this process to China? And for the rest of Asia? Do you think it is necessary to be focused when investing in China?
China is in the midst of an unprecedented effort to correct structural imbalances in its economy, and the success of this great transition will depend on how effectively the central government implements reforms. The China market saw some intense periods of volatility in 2015 as investor sentiment swung from optimism to pessimism, and while we expect there to be some volatility in 2016, what is certain is that the country is likely to avoid a hard landing. There could be some near-term pain as the reforms take time to play out and growth will likely remain low but we do not believe the current situation is as severe as in the global financial crisis of 2008 or the Asian financial crisis of 1997.
What is important to consider is that in low growth macroeconomic environments such as this, the importance of bottom-up growth picking comes to the fore. There are many sectors in China that have strong prospects for growth, and there are many high quality businesses with sustainable competitive advantages, strong balance sheets and capable management teams that are reasonably valued. Therefore, for skilled asset managers such as Mirae Asset Global Investments who rely on fundamental analysis and bottom-up stock picking to achieve alpha, this market presents many opportunities. The case is the same for the wider Asian region. Some countries are seeing lower rates of growth as ageing demographics and highly leveraged households exert negative pressure. However, emerging markets experts such as Mirae Asset Global Investments do not consider all emerging markets countries as one homogenous pack – there are many countries in the Asian region where we see rich opportunity and which may actually benefit from the current situation. This includes India, which will strongly benefit from the collapse of commodity prices.
What can we expect from Emerging Markets, after the last developments in China?
Top experts from Mirae Asset think it is important not to be blinded by macroeconomic pictures. Asia still provides ample investment opportunities. There has been a lot of volatility and things have happened so fast. After recent market correction, valuations of Asian equities become more attractive. This environment offers good opportunities to exploit. A bottom-up approach is key and we like selected stocks in consumer, technology and healthcare sectors.
Is it the moment to invest again in these “less favoured” markets, against other developed markets?
As mentioned above, China needs to correct some distortions in its economy and there will be a lot of deleveraging that needs to be performed. The “Old China” sectors which traditionally fueled China’s growth in the past will see some near-term pain. Growth in the economy will undoubtedly slow. However, for an US$11 trillion economy, growth at 3 to 4% overall is still reasonable and higher than some developed markets. Furthermore, there are many sectors in what we call the “New China” economy that offers excellent growth opportunity for investors. This includes investment themes such as the continued growth in IT services, healthcare services and underpenetrated financial sectors such as insurance. This is also true for other emerging markets. Commodity producers will no doubt suffer a downturn at least in the short run, but several emerging market countries will benefit from cheaper energy ad commodity prices, while countries such as Philippines still benefit from strong demographics and economic fundamentals. We still believe that Asia will drive the world’s economic growth in decades to come. Hence, it is important for investors to consider making an allocation to Asia in their portfolios.
What about alternative investments? Are you trying to boost this business globally? What could this provide to a Real Estate or Private Equity investor in Europe or America?
Mirae Asset Global Investments is considered to be a pioneer in regards to alternative investments in Asia. We were the first company to launch private equity funds in Korea, and introduced the first real estate fund in Korea as well. Today, we have an extensive portfolio of private equity and real estate holdings and manage various forms of alternative products spanning the full spectrum of asset classes. We also offer a diverse range of Asian hedge fund products that invest in more plain vanilla financial instruments such as equities, fixed income and derivatives. These aim to deliver absolute return type returns. We want to be a global business partner to all of our current and prospective clients – we recognize that our investors have a diverse range of unique investment needs, and we always aim to cater to those needs by driving innovation and diversity in our product line-up.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Scott Hudson. Risk Budget: Spend It Wisely
For those who budget, time is an asset. Wise spending decisions often take longer to bear fruit. Committing to a budget long-term could potentially lower one’s debt and improve their cash flow. Blow the budget with short-sighted spending decisions, however, and what might have been a good financial outcome turns undeniably less certain.
Similarly, an active manager’s risk budget—how and where they decide to “spend” or allocate risk —directly impacts their potential to outperform. In fact those spending decisions are a critical component of active risk management. In budgeting risk, an active manager essentially identifies, quantifies and sets their active risk allocations as efficiently as possible. The end goal is to maximize the potential reward for the amount of risk taken.
Just as in personal budgeting, there are tradeoffs to risk budgeting — deciding to spend in one place sacrifices the ability to spend in another. So those spending decisions must be meaningful — and purposeful. For an active manager, that’s a matter of understanding the idiosyncratic risks of individual securities, seeing the potential upside and recognizing the potential downside. The idea is not to take unintended risks.
What are some of the risk budgeting decisions an active manager might make? In more difficult markets, where active managers can play to their strengths, they might choose not to own the largest stocks, which, historically haven’t grown as fast through a market cycle. Or, an active manager might try to position away from some of the most expensive parts of the market, which have often become overextended in the days leading up to market peaks. They might also position away from the most volatile parts of the market, which typically haven’t performed as well through a full market cycle. In fact part of an active manager’s potential to outperform depends on their ability to mitigate the impact of volatility by reducing the downside risk at the security level. That’s why it’s so important to integrate risk management into the investment process, all the way down to the analyst level and in the evaluation of individual companies.
Much like personal budgeting, risk budgeting needs time to come to fruition. It’s not something that can be turned off or on but rather, a process that relies on discipline and a long-term, forward looking view. Active managers budget risk based on what they think could happen, not just on what has happened. But that’s really where spending wisely could have its greatest opportunity –sacrificing a little now to potentially get closer to what you might need further out.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Udo von Werne, new CEO EMEA de Nikko AM. Nikko Asset Management Bolsters its Leadership Across EMEA With The Appointement of Udo von Werne as CEO
Nikko Asset Management has appointed Udo von Werne as Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Nikko Asset Management Europe, encompassing Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), the company announced recently. He will be responsible for Nikko Asset Management’s business across this region and its continuing growth strategy, and reports directly to Nikko Asset Management President and CEO, Takumi Shibata.
Udo has more than 25 years of experience in the financial industry, most recently as Head of Institutional Clients for Continental Europe at Pictet Asset Management, and prior to that with organisations including Zurich Financial Services and UBS.
“In our effort to strengthen our global footprint, Udo will be instrumental in helping us to further expand, and his appointment demonstrates the importance we attach to growing our EMEA business. We warmly welcome Udo to our team,” Shibata said.
Nikko Asset Management has been expanding across EMEA, including augmenting its UCITS platform, backed by a growing team of professionals building its asset management presence. It is a key strategic region for the firm, representing institutional AUM potential of US$3.9 trillion1 – or approximately one-third of total global AUM.
“Europe, the Middle East, and Africa represent not only a substantial asset base, but also a talent pool that Nikko Asset Management aims to leverage worldwide, encompassing investment experience which is key to continuing global growth,” added Executive Chairman David Semaya. “Udo brings considerable institutional experience in Europe, and we look forward to serving our clients there, under his leadership.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Sebastien Bertrand. Did the Fed Make a Rate-Hike Mistake?
Talk of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) having hiked too late in December is self-defeating and, at this stage, pointless. Decisions on whether the Fed made the right decision or not should be based on the information at the time; not hindsight.
The case for hiking in December was simple: the labour market was booming, the economy appeared to be approaching full-employment rapidly, and economic models say this eventually leads to higher inflation. So if the Fed wanted to be gradual in its hiking cycle to avoid having to cause a sharper slow-down later on, then it needed to start hiking sooner rather than later.
Reasonable people can disagree with this argument, pointing to the possibility of hidden slack in the labour market and our possibly flawed understanding of the inflationary process. But nothing that has happened since December should drastically alter which side of that argument one sides with. The one month of nasty market volatility we have seen should not fundamentally alter one’s assessment of the economy and so appropriate policy.
If anything the economy has broadly developed in 2016 as the Fed expected. While activity has weakened a little, the labour market has continued to look strong and there are tentative signs of wages finally picking up. Financial market volatility does not seem to be telling us anything worrying about the state of the economy. This should reassure the Fed and give pause to the critics.
Bizarrely there are even some critics who claim that hiking in December 2015 was a mistake, but that the Fed should have hiked in 2014. It is hard to make sense of these arguments. Unemployment was higher and the output gap bigger in 2014, so the case for easy policy was simply much stronger. The Fed does not have some ‘window of opportunity’ to hike, as if hiking in and of itself is the objective of policy. It hikes if, and only if, the economy needs it. Hiking in 2014 would have kept the economy weaker and ultimately caused rates to be lower in the future. The surest way of ensuring rates stay low for the longest time is to hike too early. As the European Central Bank knows only too well after it chased after inflationary apparitions by hiking in 2011.
If the Fed did make an error it was in painting themselves in a corner over hiking in December.
After signalling in early 2015 that they planned on hiking at some point that year, they felt obliged to follow through on this semi-promise. Had they failed to hike this would probably have undermined their communication credibility. But long-term credibility comes from ‘doing the right thing’ – being flexible enough to adjust to the situation and changing policy when the ‘facts change’ – as our economist friend Mr Keynes would have advocated.
It may be that this is what the Fed ends up doing in 2016.
While recent volatility does not suggest the 2015 hike was a mistake, it might mean that the Fed should change its plans for 2016. It is currently signalling that it will hike three to four times this year. This may no longer be appropriate. Recent market moves may not have been caused by economic weakness but it could cause economic weakness. Market weakness can create economic weakness that then justifies the market weakness. The Fed will probably want to push back on this by signalling a slightly easier path. But this is certainly not the same as saying the earlier hike was a mistake.
Luke Bartholomew is Fixed Income Strategist at Aberdeen AM.
Photo: Tarek Saber, Head and Lead Portfolio manager of the Convertible Bonds Team at NN Investment Partners. Tarek Saber, from NN Investment Partners, brings the current state of convertible bonds to the Fund Selector Summit in Miami
Convertible bonds are a well established asset class which has outperformed through the cycle over the last 40 years. During this time, convertibles have displayed lower volatility than equities and fewer defaults than high yield debt. The main attraction of this investment class is its potential ability to generate returns from both credit markets and rising equity markets.
Tarek Saber, Head and Lead Portfolio manager of the Convertible Bonds Team at NN Investment Partners, will present the strengths of the Dutch firm’s strategy in this asset class, under the title, ‘Convertible bonds: the fixed-income alternative to equities’, at the Second edition of the Funds Selector Summit to be held in Miami on the 28th and 29th of April.
The conference, aimed at leading funds selectors and investors from the US-Offshore business, will be held at the Ritz-Carlton Key Biscayne. The event-a joint venture between Open Door Media, owner of InvestmentEurope, and Fund Society- will provide an opportunity to hear the view of several managers on the current state of the industry.
The NN Investment Partners’ convertible investment strategy team, headed by Saber since 2014, seeks to capture the essence of the opportunities offered by the market for convertible bonds globally, focusing on balanced convertibles, backed by a process of in-depth research and concentrated on a select number of convertibles.
Prior to joining NN IP, Tarek Saber was CEO / CIO for Avoca Convertible Bond Partners LLP and Head of Convertible Bond Strategies in the management company’s London office.
You can find all the information about the Fund Selector Miami Summit 2016, aimed at leading fund selectors and investors from the US-Offshore business, through this link.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Carlos ZGZ. Surviving Chinese Volatility
Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, was once quoted as saying, “Markets love volatility.” She may be correct in the abstract. But right now, investors in Chinese equities would certainly love a bit less volatility.
2016 is likely to be a year of volatility in China. With the government apparently keen to continue intervening in its A-share market, we can expect continued volatility there. And with the manufacturing and construction part of the economy set to grow more slowly, there will be macroeconomic volatility. As privately owned firms take more market share from state-owned companies that too will contribute to volatility. In addition, as the government presses ahead with structural reform in the state sector, capacity reduction will add to volatility.
We can, however, point to two areas where volatility is less likely: China’s booming consumer and services sector; and U.S. – China relations as China prepares to host its first G-20 summit.
This volatility can, however, create opportunities for investors, especially when dire headlines incorrectly assume that weak performance by outdated market indexes signal an economic hard landing. And keep in mind that volatility due to execution of necessary reforms, such as reducing the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), is good for the long run.
China suffers from a serious case of “debt disease,” but the treatment and side effects may not be as severe as some expect, and dramatic credit tightening is very unlikely. Debt is concentrated among state-owned firms, while the private firms that generate most of China’s new jobs and investment have already deleveraged.
As I explained in a May 2015 issue of Sinology (“Diagnosing China’s Debt Disease”), the medicine for this problem will be another round of significant SOE reform—including closing the least efficient, dirtiest and most indebted state firms in sectors such as steel and cement—rather than broad deleveraging, leaving healthier, private firms with room to grow. At the end of last year, the government indicated that it was finally prepared to begin reducing capacity in construction-related heavy industry. In contrast to the experience in the West after the Global Financial Crisis, cleaning up China’s debt problem should actually improve access to capital for the privately owned companies that drive growth in jobs and wealth.
Let’s turn to politics. Will U.S.-China relations become more volatile in 2016?
U.S.-China relations will remain complicated and noisy this year, but the two countries will continue to engage productively on the most important issues.
Territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas will again dominate the headlines, but two points are worth keeping in mind. The U.S. does not claim any of the disputed territory, and China seems resigned to the fact that the U.S. Navy will continue to exercise its right to patrol the region. The risk of accidents remains, but none of the players appear to be looking for an excuse to engage in a military conflict.
Finally, with China preparing for its first time as host of a summit of G-20 leaders in September, it is likely to behave more conservatively during the first three quarters of this year.
Finally, how can investors deal with all of this volatility?
The most important thing to recognize is that the Chinese equity markets do not reflect the health of the Chinese economy, and to expect some market volatility. Second, to recognize that the market indexes underrepresent the strongest parts of the economy: privately owned companies, and the consumer and services sector. This is why we believe in an active approach to investing in China, rather than an index-based strategy.
Andy Rothman is Investment Strategist at Matthews Asia.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Paul Lowry. Schroders Upgrades Crude to “Positive”
The price collapsed because global supply increased sharply in 2014-15 while demand growth sagged – and more recently even stopped altogether. The Dollar’s super strength played a key role also. In the past 3-6 months, supply growth has been sagging as a direct result of the lower price, but now it looks like a strong bet that supply is actually going to fall, and fall sharply. As a result, the market is likely to come into balance very quickly. As this happens, the price will recover smartly.
Mark Lacey and John Coyle have been reporting how very recently a number of companies have announced further huge reductions in capital spending, lower production guidance or even shut-ins. In 2016 to date, a very small sample of companies have announced a combined cut in production guidance for this year of 160kbpd already, representing a 5-6% drop from last year. In the next few weeks, as the rest of the companies report, we can expect similar announcements. From the initial sample, we can conservatively estimate a combined cut in production globally for 2016 of 1.5-2mbd, especially as the oil price is at least 20% lower than it was when the first companies reported. This reduction should be easily adequate to balance the market.
Anecdotal evidence which points towards production declines is everywhere now. This is especially in the US and Canada but notably in other parts of the world too. India, China, Kazakhstan and Nigeria are all reporting declines. North Sea activity is coming to a standstill. Tanker rates from the Gulf have collapsed recently as there has been a sharp drop in crude cargoes for February loading. Oil is being shipped to the US from far and wide because the US domestic oil price is trading expensively to the rest of the world, but the premium is being maintained. The futures market contango did not worsen at all as spot prices recently swooned and in recent days it has been reduced. US E&P bankruptcies are soaring and the financial tap is being turned off. The evidence is plain that US production is falling faster than the official statistics report and the required oil is being “sucked” in from the rest of the world. This trend is going to accelerate as US production drops precipitously in the next few months.
It’s not difficult to understand why companies are now reducing activity. Remind yourself of the chart below kindly compiled by Citibank in late 2014.
Everyone is losing money now. Producers are much better off leaving it in the ground than selling it for $27, especially as they know that storage facilities everywhere are pretty much full. The market has been rightfully worried about “tank tops” but the price collapse has now, very likely, done its job.
What can make the price fall further?
A collapse in demand. To some extent, this is already happening. Both Chinese and US demand has slowed markedly, and it could continue (likely will, in my opinion). But my view now is that the speed of supply response is overtaking the weakening of demand. We shall see. A sudden surge in Libyan production would also hurt the price; let’s afford that a 25% probability, given the security issues. A further surge in the Dollar would be a problem also, for sure; my view is that the Dollar’s run is now likely fully played out, at least for now, given the renewed turmoil in global stock markets and the weaker trend of US economic data, both of which suggest the Fed will no hike again anytime soon.
As a final note on Fundamentals, what if OPEC acts? This is a scenario completely dismissed by the market currently. Pressure on the Saudis is now immense. Of course the likelihood of the Saudis flinching may indeed be slim but just a suggestion of it today would be enough to send the price up $5-10 at least. Risk in this market is heavily skewed for sure.
I will be writing an updated formal oil report in the next two weeks.
Our official Chart indicators for oil remain bearish, we looked at them closely yesterday. I will argue, however, that from a Pattern point of view a very significant low is very likely in place, or will be within a few days. I believe the sell-off from the mid-2014 high is finishing now, based on wave counts. If this is indeed the case, the first upside target for crude is $38 (+36%), and after that $48 and $57. Strong supporting evidence, I believe, comes from the performance of some of the oil stocks yesterday: they dropped sharply in the morning but then closed very strongly, e.g. WPX was down 34% first thing but closed down only 6%, which left a bullish candlestick. The relative strength of oil stocks versus crude is another indication of a potential turning point. (And by the way, the gas stocks went up yesterday eg Southwestern up 13%; the chart patter non this stock, I believe, is super-bullish. We already has this stock rated as bullish chartwise. 50-100% upside looks easily achieveable.).
On Sentiment, again, our official indicators remain bearish but anecdotally we can now all read the tea leaves. Just listen to any TV or radio commentator or Bloomberg video, or read the papers. Everyone and his dog can now tell you why we are in a “lower for longer” scenario, and I believe it is notable that even CEOs of major oil companies are now saying the price won’t recover until second half 2016, a big change from their position 3 or 6 months ago. The IEA monthly report was widely quoted yesterday; “drowning in oil”, being repeated everywhere. In summary, the big picture sentiment story is bullish; when our shorter-term indicators turn it will be super-bullish.
To conclude, while more volatility can of course be expected, I would bet strongly that oil will finish this month well above $30. I recommend at least a fully neutral position on oil with a strong bias towards equities, which should be increased aggressively if the prices continue to recover. Gas stocks ditto.
Geoff Blanning is Head of Commodities at Schroders and Energy Fund Managerat Schroders.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Julia Rubinic
. FinCEN Takes Aim at Real Estate Secrecy in Manhattan and Miami
The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) today issued Geographic Targeting Orders (GTO) that will temporarily require certain U.S. title insurance companies to identify the natural persons behind companies used to pay “all cash”for high-end residential real estate in the Borough of Manhattan in New York City and Miami- Dade County. FinCEN is concerned that all-cash purchases – i.e., those without bank financing – may be conducted by individuals attempting to hide their assets and identity by purchasing residential properties through limited liability companies or other opaque structures. To enhance availability of information pertinent to mitigating this potential money laundering vulnerability, FinCEN will require certain title insurance companiesto identify and report the true “beneficial owner” behind a legal entity involved in certain high-end residential real estate transactions in Manhattan and Miami-Dade County.
With these GTOs, FinCEN is proceeding with its risk-based approach to combating money laundering in the real estate sector. Having prioritized anti-money laundering protections on real estate transactions involving lending, FinCEN’s remaining concern is with the money laundering vulnerabilities associated with all-cash real estate transactions. This includes transactions in which individuals use shell companies to purchase high-value residential real estate, primarily in certain large U.S. cities.
“We are seeking to understand the risk that corrupt foreign officials, or transnational criminals, may be using premium U.S. real estate to secretly invest millions in dirty money,” said FinCEN Director Jennifer Shasky Calvery. “Over the years, our rules have evolved to make the standard mortgage market more transparent and less hospitable to fraud and money laundering. But cash purchases present a more complex gap that we seek to address. These GTOs will produce valuable data that will assist law enforcement and inform our broader efforts to combat money laundering in the real estate sector.”
Under specific circumstances, the GTOs will require certain title insurance companies to record and report to FinCEN the beneficial ownership information of legal entities purchasing certain high-value residential real estate without external financing. They will report this information to FinCEN where it will be made available to law enforcement investigators as part of FinCEN’s database.
The information gathered from the GTOs will advance law enforcement’s ability to identify the natural persons involved in transactions vulnerable to abuse for money laundering. This would mitigate the key vulnerability associated with these transactions – the ability for individuals to disguise their involvement in the purchase.
FinCEN is covering certain title insurance companies because title insurance is a common feature in the vast majority of real estate transactions. Title insurance companies thus play a central role that can provide FinCEN with valuable information about real estate transactions of concern. The GTOs do not imply any derogatory finding by FinCEN with respect to the covered companies. To the contrary, FinCEN appreciates the assistance and cooperation of the title insurance companies and the American Land Title Association in protecting the real estate markets from abuse by illicit actors.
The GTOs will be in effect for 180 days beginning on March 1, 2016. They will expire on August 27, 2016.
