Photo: DanNguyen, Flickr, Creative Commons. NewAlpha Announces a Strategic Partnership with New York Based Naqvi-Van Ness Asset Management
NewAlpha Asset Management, the Paris-based global fund incubation and acceleration specialist, has announced a strategic investment with Naqvi-Van Ness Asset Management. As Europe’s leading incubator, NewAlpha is continuously seeking talented investment managers that are in their early stage of development or are looking for strategic partnerships to accelerate their growth… and now is Naqvi-Van Ness AM.
Naqvi-Van Ness’ investment approach combines a core quantitative driven long-short strategy on US equities with uncorrelated opportunistic directional strategies that seek to detect and exploit potential changes in market behavior.
The investment objective is to generate alpha and deliver absolute returns in all market environments. The strategy has been ranked by Bloomberg in the top 6% amongst their peer group over the past 5 years, and in the top 10% YTD (30/05/2016)*. Naqvi-Van Ness’ flagship strategy has $90 million dollars in AUM.
Commenting on the strategic deal, Ali Naqvi co-Founder of Naqvi-Van Ness said, “I am glad that our R&D efforts to apply our investment expertise in a highly liquid format succeeded in the successful development of our approach. This strategy is an innovative addition to the existing offering of classical hedge fund strategies and we view having on board an experienced investor like NewAlpha as an independent seal of approval regarding the thoroughness of our investment process and operations.”
Albert Van Ness, co-Founder of Naqvi-Van Ness, added “Furthermore, the NewAlpha investment will accelerate the growth and increase the attractiveness of the strategy. Having a strategic investment gives us an institutional level of credibility. Along with our differentiating strategy to Long/Short equity, this should be a positive combination for clients that have us on their radar.”
Antoine Rolland, CEO of NewAlpha, stated: “We are very enthusiastic to enter this strategic partnership with Naqvi-Van Ness. During their career, Ali, Albert and Charles have consistently shown dedication and drive to deliver the highest quality in terms of investment research, market insights and portfolio management. Their investment strategy offers many benefits, including diversification and performance, even more so given recent market volatility. In addition, Naqvi-Van Ness and NewAlpha share common values and both organizations have an entrepreneurial corporate culture..”
In 2001, Ali Naqvi and Albert Van Ness founded Naqvi–Van Ness Asset Management (NVAM) with founders’ capital to develop a systematic investment approach. This effort resulted in a research-intensive firm with proprietary models that utilize factors and insights underpinned by investor behavior and persistent biases. Prior to founding NVAM, Ali Naqvi gained extensive investment experience during 18 years at Citibank Global Asset Management, during which he was responsible for managing portfolios for large institutional clients. The portfolios under his supervision totaled nearly US $8 billion.
Co-founder of the Firm, Albert Van Ness was also a portfolio manager at Citibank Investment Management from 1994 to 2000. In 1994, he joined Ali Naqvi, managing portfolios for high net worth clients, pension plan sponsors, and sovereign investors totaling over $1.2 billion in AUMs.
In 2010, Charles DuBois joined NVAM as Director of Investment Strategies and Research. He is now responsible for developing models and strategies and researching new investment ideas. Previously, Mr. DuBois was a Global Partner and Head of U.S. Asset Allocation Strategies for the Global Structured Products Group of Invesco.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Woodley Wonder Works. European Equities: Politics Versus Progress
European equity markets have had a torrid 12 months. It was all meant to be so different. Quantitative Easing (QE), launched in March 2015, would accelerate the recovery – I used the expression “QE on steroids” a few times last year – given the strong starting point for growth at that point. Growth would be better across the world, and earnings would start to pick up.
The reality has been rather different. The US dollar has been weakening when it should have been strengthening, given the assumption that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would be tightening rates, while the euro was meant to have remained at low and highly competitive levels for exporters. Politics was also not expected to feature until 2017, but not even the prospect of Trump leading the Republican charge in the US has diverted attention away from Europe’s political uncertainties. Of more immediate political concern, the referendum in the UK over membership of the EU is likely to be much closer than many had ever thought.
Given these uncertainties, it is little wonder that the equity market has found it difficult to trade at what some felt was a high rating. After five years of little or no earnings growth at an aggregate level, 2016 estimates have steadily been revised down (yet again) from a starting point of around 8% to a more recent level of nearer 1%.
Progress behind the bluster
All that may be a reason to look at the glass as half empty. So here are a few reasons to consider that it is still actually half full: gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Europe this year is expected to be somewhere in the region of 1.5%. Inflation is expected to start to pick up albeit slowly, which is perhaps why German 10 year government bond yields have risen from 0.09% at their recent low on 7 April to 0.15% on 13 May – admittedly the tiny numbers helping to exaggerate the scale of the move. Unemployment is declining, consumer demand is improving and government finances are no longer deteriorating. This may not sound all that exciting, but equally it is not actually the disaster area that anyone listening to the claptrap from (now) ex-London mayor Boris Johnson might like to believe.
In the “real” world of company results, the first quarter has been generally in line with expectations. One or two firms have pointed out that the tailwind of a weaker euro has ended, but this is simply a translational impact in most cases. Many companies have reminded anyone who might have been sound asleep for the last six months that growth globally is quite subdued and pricing pressure remains intense. Those quality companies which we expected to grow in the portfolio, such as ARM, Fresenius Medical Care, Essilor, Infineon Technologies and Valeo, have indeed done so. But, so far in 2016, so-called “fast money” has been playing a rotational game – buy the laggards, sell the winners. As the chart here shows, the weakest sectors from 2015 – energy and materials – have rebounded strongly, at the cost of previously strong areas, such as IT and healthcare:
I can understand much of this – the fears about China were certainly exaggerated – but so is the hope that China is now recovering rapidly and returning to high growth. The probable reality is that we are in a slow growth world, where achieving anywhere between 5% and 10% earnings growth sustainably is a good achievement. That is not a bad environment for equities – but it might be a bit dull for some.
“Brexit” – unlikely but unsettling
At the time of writing, the UK referendum is only a few weeks away. Current betting patterns imply that the UK will stay part of Europe, but the general polls remain very close. It may sound extraordinary to some, from the US President to the Head of the IMF, but there is a large body of UK residents – particularly older voters – that believe the UK would be better off out of Europe. While I do not doubt that the UK will survive given either outcome, if the vote was to leave the EU, it would force us to reassess our reasonably optimistic view for European equities. Among the potential shorter-term risks, I would anticipate a sharp fall in sterling, a decline in GDP (leading to a potential recession), losses on the FTSE and a major increase in uncertainty across Europe. While we still believe that a vote for ‘Brexit’ remains unlikely, politics may overshadow Europe’s otherwise solid fundamentals for a few more weeks.
Tim Stevenson is Director of European Equities as Henderson.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Susanne Nilsson. The Case for Small Caps in a World of Deflation and Disruption
Over the last 30 years, the case for investing in small caps has been debated extensively. The long-term statistics certainly suggest that smaller companies do indeed outperform larger ones. There is less agreement on the reasons. According to Schroders, the explanations range from the contention that small caps offer a risk premium in return for lower liquidity, that limited research means any new information has a bigger impact on the shares, and/or that small companies in aggregate tend to grow faster than larger ones.
Whatever the case, even though US small caps have underperformed large by over 10% in the last two years, their outperformance over a longer period is dramatic. So what of the future?
In truth, the outlook for all investors is murky. Everything from disruptive technology to persistent low growth is making it easier to pick losers than winners. The challenges span the waterfront, from environmental concerns that put a question mark over the future of the carbon-based economy, to advances in artificial intelligence that could undermine the position of over 230 million knowledge workers around the world.
In these circumstances, and contrary to received wisdom, Schroders thinks that more winners may be found amongst the mass of lesser-known and under-researched smaller companies than amongst their larger brethren. With innovation and technological advances moving at an unprecedented pace, companies that are nimble and less burdened by layers of management may be better equipped to keep up with these changes. In this environment, having a strong brand, a large installed base and a wide distribution network are not necessarily assets anymore. “Instead we are seeing a new generation of winners that are “capital light” and have a strong online presence. As industries evolve in this direction, barriers to entry are reduced and innovations progress faster, creating increasing opportunities for small companies.” They state.
However, periods of disruptive innovation inevitably create losers as well as winners. One classic period was the dot com bubble. During most of this time, the US small cap index underperformed the large cap index. “However, a very different story emerges when the small cap universe is broken down into sectors. Smaller pharmaceutical, biotechnology and software companies outperformed the US S&P 500 Index of larger companies, whereas traditional industries, such as banking and retailing, lagged behind. This shows how vital it is to be able to actively pick winners when disruption occurs.”
For Schroders, what often handicaps traditional companies when it comes to developing or adopting a disruptive innovation is the fear of cannibalising their existing revenues. In contrast, smaller and newer companies not tied to an established product have more incentive to direct resources to the next disruptive innovation. Medical technology is a good example of this. Historically, incumbent providers of medical equipment, such as video scopes for internal examinations, focused on reusable technology that is high margin, but also expensive. Clearly, these incumbents had little incentive to produce a lower- cost alternative as such a course would have eaten into demand for their existing products. This allowed Ambu, a small cap technology company with fewer existing sales to defend, to launch a single-use alternative which was both cheaper and came with a lower risk of infection. Not surprisingly, this has allowed Ambu to disrupt the existing market and gain market share.
There are, of course, a number of examples of large technology suppliers operating in markets where the “winner takes all”. Here the so-called FANG companies with dominant technology (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google) often use their substantial cash reserves to buy up smaller competitors. For investors in the shares of these publicly-traded small companies, this is clearly good news, even if it may limit their opportunities for making even larger gains.
“Of course, not all small technology companies are publicly quoted. With return prospects low, venture capital financing is popular and often more readily available than other sources of finance (Figure 3). In this environment, innovative companies may remain private long after the development stage, denying investors the chance to piggy-back on rapid growth.” For example, the electric car manufacturer Tesla floated when it was valued at over $2 billion, while the app-based taxi group Uber remains private and is already worth over $60 billion. “However, we would argue that the publicly listed universe of companies still provides ample opportunity to find disrupters. For example, at the end of February, the technology sector accounted for 3.8% of the FTSE SmallCap Index, more than twice the figure for either the FTSE All-Share or the FTSE 100 indices. In the tech-heavy NASDAQ index in the US, about 65% of the constituents by number are valued at $500 million or less.
Beyond these general characteristics, they identify a number of specific areas where smaller companies enjoy advantages not necessarily shared by their larger rivals:
Unfilled niches
Pricing power
Better balance sheets
Investment impact
Lower profile
“Given the outlook for low economic growth and increasing technological disruption, we believe investors should pay particular attention to small caps. This environment will make life hard for large companies, whereas smaller companies have the opportunity to gain market share and grow faster than the market. At a time of unprecedented technological, social and regulatory change, small companies may be able to operate “below the radar” and dominate niches which are likely to grow in light of these changes. For investors, each investment will need to be evaluated on a company by company basis. They should not rely on the assumption that the small cap premium will operate universally. Being able to sort the wheat from the chaff will be vital to the success of a small cap portfolio.” They conclude.
Hervé Hanoune, Head of Fixed Income at Vontobel AM and fund manager of the Vontobel Fund- Bond Global Aggregate. Courtesy photo. "We Identify US Duration as The Strongest Source of Risk for The Next Couple of Months"
Hervé Hanoune, Head of Fixed Income at Vontobel AM and fund manager of the Vontobel Fund- Bond Global Aggregate, explains in this interview with Funds Society where he is looking for the best opportunities in the asset class.
In a low minimum return environment in many debt assets, is there still value?
Yes, of course, from a bond investor’s perspective, the current environment is actually a rather positive one, in particular for spread products. The reason is very simple.We face a landscape with low interest rates and low inflation, combined with slow or even sluggish economic growth. Low inflation will keep rates down and slow growth will keep corporates above water and enable them to meet their coupon payments and roll over their debts. Currently, we retain a positive view on European financials, insurers, utilities and the euro-zone “periphery” – the latter due our expectation that ECB President Mario Draghi will stress his wishes to normalise spread levels within the euroarea. We particularly like legacy tier-1 paper Intesa, BNP, Natixis, NSBC as well as insurers like AXA, Allianz, Groupama and Zurich.
In the current environment, with low rates in spite of they are likely to increase in the US, what do you prefer, duration risk or credit risk?
I actually prefer a global flexible fixed income approach. I don’t believe that investors are well compensated by being exposed to duration. Duration risk is notoriously difficult to manage, particularly in the current environment, where it is exacerbated by the asymmetric nature of the risk caused by low interest rates. With central-bank rates near zero, this danger is self-evident. The increase in duration has the effect of exposing bond portfolios to ever-larger drawdowns. But the good news is the fixed income universe is very large and in addition to traditional strategies there are further strategies that investors should consider, for example, multiplying the opportunity set, and that means investing globally. Investors should diversify by investing across asset classes, investment strategies and time horizons which helps to improve the risk-return profile of their portfolios. Last but not least, investors can also harvest returns by seizing relative-value opportunities.
Does it depend on the geographic area?
I believe that geographical diversification plays a key role. Indeed, investors who broaden their geographical scope from a local or continental one to a global one will be rewarded with a far larger choice of investment opportunities and strategies. I believe diversifying in today’s environment is crucial as bond investors require an approach that is capable of delivering returns, regardless of the direction of interest rates and regardless of market cycles. So opportunities for fixed-income investors will arise as long as they diversify and remain flexible.
Can you comment your positions in credit and public debt in your portfolio?
Our top ten positions are balanced between credit and public debt which reflects our conviction on issuers and sectors. In terms of public debt, we hold long-term UK and Portuguese government bonds. The UK is offering very attractive yields and while the currency would be at risk from a potential Brexit, gilts should prove resilient in the face of a British exit from the EU. Portugal in turn is a big beneficiary from the ECB bond purchase programmeand the market has yet to price this fully. In terms of credit, as outlined above, we like solid carry products, too. For example, we favor solid Italian financial institutions like Intesa Sanpaolo, one of the largest Italian banking groups.
In this context with so many news of central banks, how can they weight on markets and how do you manage it in your portfolio?
Our investment proposition is well prepared to handle these challenges. We only invest in areas where we see value. Therefore, we are able to avoid investments that we consider too expensive following the ECB bond purchases, e.g. German government bonds. In other areas, such as the euro zoneperiphery, we see the ECB action as supportive for our investments in carry products. As announced in April, the ECB is happy for now with their measures including extended bond purchases. With regards to the Fed, we only expect 1-2 additional rate hikes for this year, but this expectation is not set in stone. We have seen that the Fed is in a really dovish mode and has somewhat changed their typical behavior, so we need to act with some flexibility here.
Which are the major risks in this environment?
We believe that the strongest risks are now tied to capital preservation trades, which could sharply deteriorate when market normalize. We identify US duration as the strongest source of risk for the next couple of months.The need to be flexible/tactical is even more important now than at the beginning of the year. Our central scenario of sluggish but positive global growth, with very low inflation pressure, continues to be the one signalled by the economic data released so far. Especially in Europe and Japan, an investment landscape with zero or negative interest rates can prevail for still some time. We continue to believe that there are many opportunities present right now as the low liquidity and market stress creates many inefficiencies.
Regarding valuations, are the pricing a recession?
We clearly saw the credit market at recessionary type of valuations in January and February, but the recovery since then has led to more normal levels. We consider the general credit market fairly valued but pockets of value still exist.
Are there bubbles in some segments?
If you see the level at where German government bonds are trading, one can conclude that some government bond markets might be in bubble territory.
In Europe, you see value in peripheral debt, as Spain, Italy or Portugal. Why?
Yes, as mentioned before, peripherals are attractive, mainly Portugal and Italy, as their fundamentals are improving and they are supported by the ECB. There is an ongoing mutualisation of European debt, which is not priced in yet by the market.
Are you concerned about political risk in markets like Spain? How can it affect?
In the context of the current political trend where the electorate moves away from the established parties, this could have a negative effect. But as you could see it in Portugal, the market pays more attention to the ECB actions than to the national politics.
Currencies and sharp moves in markets like China or US are key issues now.
We remain short on various Asian currencies and will continue to actively manage our exposure to this theme when prices change. We also believe that the oil prices have stopped to correct and that producers will recover in the next few months with emerging-market oil-producing economies likely to outperform importers. As a consequence, we are long on the Russian rouble, and short on the Turkish lira.
We certainly have an element of competitive devaluation and the US took the main burden in 2015 by appreciating strongly. The US has made clear to the Chinese that they are not willing to accept a further appreciation at their expense and so the Chinese have turned to the Japanese Yen. Given that scenario, we can expect some indications that the BoJ will devalue their currency again.
Which sectors do you like?
We retain a positive view on European financials and insurers. In addition, we like utilities, industrials and peripherals. In summary, exposure to credit is defined from a top-down perspective. However, the sector and issuer exposure is constructed through a detailed bottom-up approach supported by our experienced credit analysts. As with all other asset classes within the permitted investment universe, the value of credit is continually assessed relative to other asset classes.
Geographically, how is positioned your portfolio?
Our top 5 country weightings are the UK, France, Portugal, Italy and Germany.
It is time to enter in emerging countries? What do you think about Latin America?
We remain cautious on emerging markets, particularly on local currencies. As mentioned above, oil prices have stabilized which will help producers to recover in the next months. However, we are still very selective in emerging market hard currency sovereigns. In Latin America, we therefore consider countries such Mexico and Colombia attractive.
This is the personal opinion of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Vontobel Asset Management.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, Flickr. Schroders Enters into Strategic Relationship with Hartford Funds to Accelerate Growth Plans in US
Schroders has entered into a strategic relationship with Hartford Funds, a leading US based asset management company that offers a broad range of actively managed strategies to US financial advisors and their clients.
The relationship will involve Hartford Funds adopting 10 of Schroders’ existing US mutual funds, with potential for the partnership to expand over time. The adopted funds will be advised by Hartford Funds, sub-advised by Schroders, and renamed ‘Hartford Schroders Funds’. The funds, which include equity, fixed income and multi-asset strategies, collectively have $2.2 billion in assets under management.
Peter Harrison, Group Chief Executive at Schroders explained that “Hartford Funds is a high-quality company whose reach and scale makes them an ideal strategic partner for Schroders. The addition of funds sub-advised by Schroders to Hartford Funds’ investment platform will give investors in the US access to our diverse investment management expertise. This relationship will enable us to build scale in our US intermediary business and accelerate our growth plans in the US market.”
“This relationship allows us to expand the breadth of our investment capabilities and continue to deliver quality solutions to US investors, both now and in the future. Schroders’ history of product innovation and disciplined investment processes reflect our belief in differentiated, long-term thinking that helps investors meet their financial goals,” said Jim Davey, President at Hartford Funds.
Hartford Funds has $73.6 billion assets under management and offers more than 45 funds in a variety of styles and asset classes.
The fund adoptions are expected to be complete by the end of the third quarter of 2016, subject to shareholder approval.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Alex Crooke, responsable del equipo de Global Equity Income de Henderson . Global Equity Income: Value Opportunities Emerging
In this video update, Alex Crooke, Head of Global Equity Income at Henderson, reveals where his team are finding the best opportunities for equity income and capital growth. He also explains the long-term regional and sector findings from the Henderson Global Dividend Index, a research report into global dividend trends.
Where are the best opportunities?
We are finding interesting opportunities within the financials sector. A number of central banks have started new policies, such as negative interest rates, which have been affecting sentiment and profits in the short term for a number of financial companies. Longer term, we believe this will create value so we are looking to selectively increase our bank exposure in Europe by investing in good-quality recovery companies such as ING, the Dutch multinational banking and financial services company. Insurance is another area that was negatively affected earlier this year but offers the potential for very good dividend growth. The pharmaceuticals sector has been impacted by market rotation this year after a strong 2015 but we believe it remains attractive and recent underperformance is providing an opportunity to invest in quality companies at more attractive valuation levels.
Which are the regional dividend trends?
Key findings from the Henderson Global Dividend Index (HGDI) reveal that Japan and North America have exhibited the best dividend growth during the last two years. We are also seeing some interesting opportunities arise in Europe, where companies are returning to the dividend payment list, particularly in the financials and consumer-related sectors.
Which are the sector dividend trends?
HGDI shows that the technology sector is continuing to provide good dividend growth. A number of companies are increasing their payout ratios (the proportion of profits paid out as dividends) as well as earnings and profits, which is feeding dividends. Pharmaceuticals and financials were the largest sectors in terms of dividend payments in Q1 16, although growth has been moderating. Consumer-based sectors are demonstrating good dividend growth and we expect this to continue through the rest of the year.
Dividend growth outlook
We are seeing a slower environment for dividend growth overall. This reflects slower economic growth from many countries around the world and the fact that payout ratios have reached higher levels than in previous cycles. With earnings, cashflow and ultimately dividends from commodity-based sectors still under pressure from recent price falls, markets with a high percentage of oil or mining companies, such as the UK and Australia, are experiencing dividend cuts. Despite this, many businesses outside of these sectors are delivering sustainable dividend growth.
Why global equity income?
In the current environment the benefits of a global approach to equity income are based on opportunity and value.
In opportunity terms, we can position the strategy away from difficult areas, such as concerns about growth from China and worries about a potential Brexit vote, while accessing growth in other parts of the world.
In terms of value, we are still finding some very good opportunities, with the dividend yield available on equities looking good value relative to bond yields and interest rates. We believe that by maintaining a good-quality bias and searching for opportunities in international markets and sectors we are able to provide an attractive long-term strategy for investors.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: OnCall team. Investor Demand For Real Assets Will Surge By 2020
Private equity, real estate and infrastructure managers anticipate strong growth in assets in the next five years, according to new research Building for the future: How alternative investment managers are rising the demographic challenge from BNY Mellon, prepared in collaboration with Preqin. the study surveyed 340 private equity, real estate and infrastructure fund managers globally.
Global macro-economic, social and environmental shifts are fuelling a need for investments in real assets, property and infrastructure worldwide. The report forecasts that appetite for these assets among retail and institutional investors will continue to grow. Sixty percent of infrastructure managers, 44% of real estate managers and 39% of private equity managers surveyed expect their assets under management to grow by at least 50% in the next five years.
“Deep-rooted demographic and macro forces are driving an unprecedented need for investment in real assets such as transport facilities, communications networks, housing and hospitals. These demands far outstrip the reach of government and public finances, and this creates huge opportunities for private capital to play a part in people’s everyday lives,” said Alan Flanagan, global head of Private Equity and Real Estate Fund Services at BNY Mellon.
While institutional investors, most notably pension funds and family offices, currently demonstrate the biggest appetite for real investments, almost half of the private equity and real estate fund managers surveyed believe that retail investors will account for a higher level of capital inflows by 2020 than they do today. Investment will come from mass affluent and high net worth individuals in developing markets, the continued expansion of sovereign wealth funds, and increasing numbers of defined contribution schemes.
“Investors are turning more and more to real assets to find yield, diversify their portfolios, and steer through volatile markets,” said Flanagan. “The growth in real asset investments has been impressive and there is no sign of it slowing down. As a result, the marketplace has become increasingly competitive on deal sourcing, presenting challenges for managers to successfully deploy the capital they have raised.”
The majority of alternative investment managers surveyed have seen institutional investor appetite for real assets climb over the last 12 months. A third of real estate and 41% of infrastructure managers are seeing the most demand coming from public pension funds, followed by private sector pension funds. Private equity managers see the greatest interest coming from family offices, followed by public pension funds (26% and 25% respectively). The survey also revealed that more than a third of infrastructure and real estate fund managers had altered their investment approach, either by diversifying their assets or exploring different geographies and niche strategies.
The need for transparency, driven by clients and regulators, is prompting a growing number of managers to consider outsourcing certain functions. Overall, two-thirds of fund managers across all asset classes feel regulation might lead to outsourcing in the future. Cost was the most commonly stated reason to outsource, in addition to having access to enriched data and analytics from an outsourcing provider and access to the expertise of external staff.
“Investment managers’ business models must have flexibility to thrive in such a fast-evolving environment and also be able to meet growing regulatory reporting as well as institutional investor demands for transparency,” added Flanagan. “To maintain strong allocations and achieve sustainable growth, it’s vital that managers of assets are invested in their infrastructure and supported by the right operating models.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Atli Hardarson. Do You Need Inflation Protection?
“We believe inflation risks are underappreciated and underpriced. Now may be an opportune time for forward-thinking investors to add inflation risk management to their portfolios,” says Stewart Taylor, Diversified Fixed Income Portfolio Manager at Eaton Vance on the company’s blog.
According to Taylor, it’s easy to understand the lack of investor demand for this asset class. The CITI Inflation Surprise Index has been negative 52 of the last 53 months. With the exception of the financial crisis, year-over-year (YOY) headline CPI has been lower than at any point since the late 1960s.
“What many investors don’t appreciate is how persistent weakness in energy and food prices has hidden the underlying growth in services inflation. While energy and food represent only 21% of the CPI, they explain about 80% of its change,” he says while highlighting:
Spot WTI crude is down 55% from June 2014, while the S&P Goldman Sachs Food Index is down roughly 50% from its 2011 high.
Over this same period, the YOY run rate for services inflation has averaged 2.5% and has climbed above 3% over the past few months.
Because of this, Eaton Vance believes that the bear market in food is over and that the energy bear market is either over or in its very late stages. “Strength in energy and food should quickly translate to higher goods CPI, which, in turn, should help boost the already elevated services CPI. There is also evidence of increasing wage pressures. The 3.4% YOY growth in the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker in April is the strongest growth since February 2009. Historically, wage pressures have been associated with periods of higher inflation” Taylor writes.
The April CPI highlighted the changing inflation dynamic: The month-over-month change in headline CPI (0.4%) was the biggest monthly gain since February 2013. Also, at 2.1%, YOY Core CPI is now above the Fed’s 2% target; at 1.6%, YOY Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) (the Fed’s desired metric) is approaching its 2% target.
The trend in year-over-year Core CPI bottomed in early 2015 and has since been moving higher. Several alternate CPI measures that attempt to remove the most volatile index components to better ascertain the underlying trend also confirm this.
Taylor and his team think that investors are beginning to realize that the bear markets in energy and food are near an end. After roughly a year of outflows, net flows into TIPS funds and ETFs have turned positive over the past two months (ended April 2016), while break-even inflation rates on 5-year TIPS have begun to price in higher expected inflation. “We think these trends are still in their early innings.” And that “inflation assets are inexpensive relative to growing inflation risks.”
Photo: Sriyan Pietersz. Prominent ASEAN Analyst Sriyan Pietersz Joins Matthews Asia As Investment Strategist
Matthews Asia has announced the appointment of Sriyan Pietersz as Investment Strategist.
In this newly created role, Sriyan will be a key member of the investment team, responsible for developing research focused on economic and political developments within ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and frontier markets in Asia. His in-depth knowledge and unique insights into the region will support the Matthews Asia investment team and complement their wider research efforts.
Sriyan will also play a key role in representing the firm’s deep expertise of the developments in the ASEAN region and frontier markets to the firm’s clients and prospects around the world. He will act as a spokesperson for the firm on ASEAN and play an important role in the delivery of Matthews Asia’s thought leadership initiatives related to investing in Asia.
Prior to joining the firm, Sriyan was a Managing Director at J.P. Morgan Investment Bank, where he spent over 11 years with responsibilities spanning both equity research and distribution. As Head of ASEAN and Frontier Markets Equity Research, he was responsible for formulating country equity investment strategy for Thailand/Vietnam, regional Southeast Asia asset allocation, thematic strategy, and macro/strategy on Asian frontier markets, as well as managing a team of 18 equity research analysts. A member of the Asia Pacific Research senior management team, Sriyan was consistently ranked in the Top-3 in Institutional Investor sell-side research polls during his time at J.P. Morgan. Subsequently, he spent time in equity sales as Head of ASEAN Equity Distribution. Prior to this, he spent over 10 years in senior equity research roles in Asia, managing teams of equity analysts and conducting both macroeconomic and equity analysis.
William Hackett, Chief Executive Officer: “We are very pleased to welcome Sriyan to Matthews Asia. With almost three decades of experience focused on ASEAN countries, he is considered one of the leading authorities on the region’s economy and equity markets. Our global client base will undoubtedly benefit from his insight and analysis into the ASEAN region. I am delighted we have been able to attract someone of Sriyan’s calibre to the firm and as we continue to see the region’s equity markets develop and new frontier markets begin to open to investors, his appointment further cements our reputation as a leading, forward-thinking Asia-specialist investment manager.”
Robert Horrocks, PhD, Chief Investment Officer: “With nearly three decades of experience conducting both country and equity analysis into the ASEAN region, Sriyan has developed a deep understanding of the region’s markets and the growing role they play in Asia’s economy. His considerable expertise will further enhance the knowledge that already resides within our investment team and help develop our thoughts around how we invest in these countries.”
Sriyan Pietersz, Investment Strategist: “I’m delighted to have this opportunity to join Matthews Asia, a leading Asia investment specialist, and privileged to work with and learn from an investment team that has delivered outstanding returns for its investors over the long term.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, Flickr. AXA to Sell Its Investment, Pensions and Direct Protection Businesses in the UK to Phoenix Group Holdings
AXA announced today that it had entered into an agreement with Phoenix Group Holdings to sell its (non-platform) investment and pensions business and its direct protection business (Sunlife) in the UK. Completion of the transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including the receipt of regulatory approvals, and is expected to occur in the second semester 2016.
The overall consideration for the sale of the UK Life & Savings businesses, including the transaction announced today, the sale of the offshore investment bonds business based in the Isle of Man announced on April 28th, and the sale of the wrap platform Elevate announced on May 4th would amount to ca. GBP 632 million (or ca. Euro 832 million). These transactions would generate an exceptional negative P&L impact of ca. Euro 0.4 billion accounted for in net income.
The operations affected by these transactions will be treated as discontinued operations in AXA’s 2016 consolidated financial statements. As a consequence, their earnings will be accounted for in Net Income until the closing date.
