Photo courtesyAlbert Maruri, Offshore Sales Director in the U.S. at Thornburg
Thornburg Investment Management (Thornburg) has announced the expansion of its international distribution team after the assets of its UCITS platform doubled over the past 12 months, increasing from $316 million to more than $645 million as of March 31, 2026.
According to the firm, this growth reflects rising global demand for active management strategies offered through the UCITS structure, which remains a preferred vehicle for international investors seeking “differentiated, high-quality investment solutions.”
To support this momentum, Thornburg has appointed Albert Maruri as Offshore Sales Director in the U.S., further strengthening the firm’s distribution capabilities in international wealth markets. Based in Miami, Maruri will work closely with financial advisors and intermediaries serving non-U.S. investors, expanding access to Thornburg’s investment strategies in key offshore markets.
In addition, for the United Kingdom, Europe, and certain international markets, the asset manager has appointed Andrew Paterson as Director of Business Development for the UK/EMEA. Based in the firm’s London office, he reports to Jon Dawson, head of the UK office, and will focus on deepening relationships with institutional clients and intermediaries in the region.
Following these two appointments, Jonathan Schuman, Head of International at Thornburg, stated: “Building long-term relationships is fundamental to how we grow internationally. By expanding our local presence in key markets, we are better positioned to work closely with our clients, understand the evolution of their needs, and connect them with Thornburg’s high-conviction investment strategies.”
UCITS platform
According to the firm, these appointments come at a time when Thornburg’s UCITS platform continues to gain traction among investors. The firm’s five UCITS strategies have recorded sustained inflows and strong investment performance, with the Equity Income Builder fund being one of the main drivers of recent growth, reflecting strong demand for global income-oriented solutions.
For the firm, this momentum follows a series of enhancements to Thornburg’s UCITS range, including the launch of new share classes, fee reductions, and the reclassification of certain strategies under Article 8 of the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR). Taken together, these initiatives have improved accessibility for European investors while reinforcing Thornburg’s commitment to active management, an investment philosophy independent of benchmarks and focused on long-term results.
“The UCITS platform represents a key pillar in Thornburg’s long-term international growth strategy, as the firm continues to expand its global presence and serve clients across an increasingly diverse set of markets,” they noted.
Central America has ceased to be a blind spot on the radar of the fund industry. Amid its fragmentation and small scale, the region is beginning to emerge as an “early-stage” market with an uncommon combination: a low starting point and high expansion potential.
With assets under management barely ranging between $7 billion and $10 billion, the Central American bloc appears marginal compared to Mexico—which exceeds $290 billion—and practically invisible next to the United States.
But that gap, far from being an absolute disadvantage, is precisely what is starting to attract the attention of managers, regional banks, and international capital.
The diagnosis in the region has long been known: shallow markets, low investor penetration, and an industry dominated by traditional banking. However, the current moment introduces a different variable: the convergence of multiple growth drivers at an early stage of the cycle.
The fund industry in Central America does not compete today on size, but on optionality. Digitalization opens the door to millions of potential investors who still do not participate in funds, while real assets—from real estate developments to energy infrastructure—offer tangible vehicles in economies with low financial sophistication. Meanwhile, multilateral and impact capital is specifically seeking geographies with structural needs and attractive risk-adjusted returns.
However, the current circumstances in the region should not be overlooked—we are dealing with a very small market in reality. Although there is no single consolidated regional statistic, using country data and estimates, it is known that Costa Rica is the most developed nation in the region with $4.5 billion in assets; El Salvador is another of the countries that has grown the most in recent years and reports assets of $1.59 billion; Panama, Guatemala, and others manage several hundred million dollars each (historical industry estimates). With this, the regional market (traditional funds) can be placed at approximately $7 billion to $10 billion in assets under management (AUM).
Structurally, the fund market in the region and the financial industry in general point to a small, banked but shallow market. They also show a strong dependence on local banking, multilaterals, and international investors, as well as low participation from retail investors.
If the investment fund market in Central America is compared with that of Mexico, the difference is enormous; the latter reports approximately $290 billion in AUM, meaning the Central American fund industry is at least 41 times smaller. A huge gap, but also a great opportunity for a region that, with some exceptions, has made significant progress in governance and political stability compared to past decades.
The weaknesses of the fund industry in Central America are at the same time its areas of opportunity: “early-stage” phase, low financial penetration, and limited product offering. Central America represents less than 0.05% of the North American market—the opportunity for growth is unmatched.
Costa Rica, the example
While it is true that the size of its market is very small in regional and global terms, Costa Rica’s fund industry is an example that when things are done well, the effects become visible over time—capital rewards trust and the conditions created for investment.
A decade ago, Costa Rica, along with the region, was practically nonexistent in the investment fund industry. Today, managers operating in the country oversee around $4.5 billion in assets, according to the Costa Rican Investment Funds Chamber. The country now has the most structured fund industry in the region, with multiple managers, consolidated regulation, the presence of real estate funds, and a broader investor base.
Two other countries that have made progress and are gradually increasing their attractiveness to managers are Panama and El Salvador.
In the case of Panama, it has traditionally been a strong financial hub, so it is notable that it did not have a developed fund industry. Perhaps its orientation toward offshore private banking limited it, but movement is now underway, with the first step being the modernization of the regulatory framework in recent years. El Salvador has also stepped forward; in recent years it has modified its laws and, despite being an extremely small market, is already showing growth in its still incipient fund industry of between 18% and as much as 20% annually, when not long ago the figure was practically 0%.
It is a fact: we still cannot say that the region has the next Central American “Brazil” or “Mexico”; the investment fund sector is still incipient, it is a fragmented market dependent on each country and without real regional integration.
However, despite its limited size, the Central American market presents long-term opportunities linked to financial inclusion and the development of capital markets.
Today, the presence and penetration of retail funds is already a reality, as is the development of real estate and private debt products. The development of the fund industry will depend on financial deepening, regulatory strengthening, and regional integration.
Although the starting point is limited, assuming that the size of the economies condemns the fund market in Central America would be short-sighted. Precisely because of its “early-stage” condition, the region concentrates several clear structural opportunities that, if well executed, could trigger significant growth in the coming decade, according to analysts in this part of the Americas.
In fact, today Central America has the same driver that triggered growth in Mexico over the last decade.
For example, there is already traction in countries such as Costa Rica and other economies with urban growth, tourism, and incipient nearshoring. There is a niche for real estate, infrastructure, and energy funds; as a rule, tangible assets generate trust in markets with low financial literacy.
If this interest can be consolidated, local estimates indicate that the fund market in the region could grow from $10 billion today to between $20 billion and $30 billion in assets under management in the medium term—still far from other regions and nearby countries, but doubling assets in a few years would lay the foundation for a subsequent boom, according to recent experiences in markets such as Mexico.
There is no need to write a “secret recipe”—everything is already known. The challenge for managers in the region is simple: convert deposits into investment—liquidity funds, fixed income funds, and managed portfolios. It is undoubtedly the fastest path to growth; just look at Chile and Mexico, where this model has been highly successful.
In conclusion, Central America does not compete today on scale, but on future optionality; its clearest opportunities lie in digital retail (disruption), real assets (trust), regional integration (scale), and international capital (financing). If these four pillars converge, the market can transition from a “fragmented early-stage” to a functional emerging ecosystem.
Central America may not be the next Mexico in the immediate term nor compete with North America in the short run. But that is not the story. The story is different: a small market that, precisely because it is small, holds one of the greatest transformation potentials in the fund industry in the region.
With a brief message on his social media profile, the circle of Mark Mobius announced his passing at the age of 89. The renowned emerging markets investor always stood out for grounding the conviction of his investment ideas in miles traveled and hours of meetings, as well as for his elegant and impeccable light-colored suit.
Throughout his career, we had the opportunity to listen to him and interview him on various occasions, enjoying anecdotes from his travels, discovering new companies in emerging markets, and catching his enthusiasm. Our first encounter with him was at the end of the 1990s. Markets were dominated by the formation of the dot-com bubble, globalization, market turbulence, and the birth of the euro. However, his message was compelling, and his defense of emerging markets showed no cracks.
According to Alicia Jiménez, managing partner, director, and co-founder of Funds Society, and with more than 30 years of experience in the sector, Mobius was above all a brilliant mind. “Over the following two decades, I had the pleasure of listening to him in countless presentations, both in Europe and in the United States, but it was during Javier Villegas’s tenure as director of the Miami office of Franklin Templeton when, at some point between 2015 and 2017, I had the pleasure of speaking with him for an hour about his career. On that occasion, Mobius was already nearing eighty, possibly already there, and his extraordinary memory stood out: he spoke about those exotic markets as if he had lived in them for years, knew their economies, companies, and politics inside out, and explained everything with astonishing naturalness,” she recalls.
In these meetings, he made it clear that his favorites were frontier markets and insisted on the importance of private markets for the coming decade. “Now, in retrospect, I understand much better the scope of his vision. I remember leaving that terrace in Miami Beach where we shared a soft drink under the shade of palm trees, thinking that I had just been with a prodigy of nature. Rest in peace,” she adds.
Emerging markets with conviction
Repeatedly, our senior team and, consequently, our readers had the opportunity to learn about his view on emerging markets. In this regard, Mobius always argued that they were undervalued and key to future growth, especially by focusing on sectors such as consumer, technology, and financial services. As he maintained, emerging markets are where the real growth of the world lies, as they bring together such important trends as favorable demographics, an accelerating urbanization process, significant expansion of the middle class, and a rapid advancement of digitalization and technology. However, he always insisted that the greatest market risks were not economic—since he saw clear potential in these countries after years of reforms—but rather those linked to unexpected regulatory changes, corruption, and the lack of protection for minority shareholders.
In our last interview with him, published in November 2023, Mobius reminded us that the key to his success lay in holding meetings, meetings, and more meetings with the management teams of the companies he considered interesting, as well as getting to know their facilities and work philosophy. As the so-called “Indiana Jones of emerging markets investing” told us, walking the streets and sharing in everyday life is the best way to discover investment opportunities in these markets. An approach he always combined with financial scrutiny and the study of the fundamentals of each of the companies in which he invested or that caught his attention.
One of the main messages he conveyed in his interviews was that emerging markets had undergone significant evolution that seemed to go unnoticed by investors. “In the 2000s, everything revolved around commodities and telecommunications, with companies featuring very simple business models taking the lead. At that time, technology represented less than 5% of the emerging markets universe, and now technology-oriented companies account for more than 30%. There is much more innovation and unique brands coming from emerging markets, so companies need to be analyzed differently,” he stated passionately.
His legacy: AUM and philosophy
Mobius began to become an industry reference starting in 1987, when he held the position of Executive Chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group. From then on, his career was a true phenomenon, culminating in 2024 when he founded his own firm: Mobius Investments.
“Mobius was widely regarded as one of the first emerging markets investors, known for traveling extensively and developing first-hand knowledge in markets often overlooked by global investors. John Ninia, partner at Mobius Investments, and Eric Nguyen, partner at Mobius Investments, will assume leadership responsibilities. The firm will continue operating without changes to its investment approach or daily operations,” they stated at Mobius Investments when announcing his passing.
It is difficult to estimate the amount of assets Mobius managed throughout his career. It is known that he oversaw funds exceeding $50 billion in assets under management. For example, during his key period at Franklin Templeton, the emerging markets group he led grew from approximately $100 million to more than $40 billion. Some sources even suggest that he managed over $50 billion in emerging market portfolios.
Although he leaves emerging market investors without one of their leading figures, his legacy includes key messages such as: “You have to go where the growth is” and “Patience is key in emerging markets.” But above all, he leaves fund managers with his main life lesson: “Walk the path, go there, and meet with company executives before investing.”
With the aim of strengthening its roster for the offshore business, the boutique Virtus Investment Partners recruited a new executive. This is Andrés Uriarte, who took on the role of Offshore Sales Director, as the asset management firm announced via LinkedIn.
The professional, they detailed, joins to support coverage of the Southeast region, bringing more than 15 years of experience in offshore investment channels. “We are excited to have him on our team as we continue to grow our offshore business,” the company announced.
Before joining Virtus, Uriarte built an extensive career in the sector. His most recent stop was at M&G Investments, where he worked as Senior Sales Manager for the US Offshore and Latin American markets, between January 2022 and this month. Prior to that, he held a similar role as US Offshore Sales Director at Schroders.
His career also includes roles at a variety of well-known banks. He held the positions of Vice President Investment Counselor at Citi; Associate at INVEX Banco; Personal Banker at Bank of America; and Branch Manager at IBC Bank.
Virtus operates with a multi-manager and multi-strategy model, providing investment solutions to individual and institutional investors. Its multi-boutique structure closed 2025 with $159.1 billion in AUM, across equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and alternative strategies.
Photo courtesyÍñigo Escudero, Head of Southern Europe & Latin America at Invesco
Invesco is driving its business in the Americas through two levers: a new structure and a strategic agreement with LarrainVial. Currently, the firm oversees $35 billion across the US Offshore and LatAm markets, with Íñigo Escudero, Head of Southern Europe & Latin America at Invesco, as its key figure in the region.
Initially, the firm managed the US Offshore and LatAm markets separately, but after expanding his responsibilities and being appointed head of the Southern Europe business as well, Escudero made a significant decision: to merge both regions. “It was a decision that made sense because the link between both markets is enormous. In US Offshore we have been operating for more than fifteen years and benefit from the great work that Rhett Baughan, Head of US Offshore Distribution at Invesco, has been doing. There, we have grown considerably over the past five years and have around $6 billion in US Liquidity, which possibly makes us the largest international asset manager in liquidity. For LatAm, we have Begoña Gómez, who until now was responsible for LatAm for Active, and will now also take on the US Offshore segment; as a result, Baughan will report directly to her. Finally, for the ETF segment, Laure Peyranne, Head of ETFs for Iberia, Latin America, and US Offshore, will continue to lead the business,” explains Escudero.
To understand this structural change at Invesco, it is necessary to consider its second growth lever: the expansion of its strategic agreement with LarrainVial. For more than 18 years, Invesco has collaborated with the Chilean asset manager on distribution throughout Latin America. Until last year, the agreement with LarrainVial included $9.2 billion in UCITS mutual funds and $15.6 billion in Invesco ETFs, but with the expansion of their alliance into the US Offshore channel for Invesco’s UCITS products, the growth potential is much greater.
“Many firms approached us to work together and grow in the US Offshore market, but we felt it was not yet the right time for us. However, following our growth in recent years and LarrainVial’s evolution, we saw that now was the ideal moment to expand our collaboration for several reasons: their expertise, their team of professionals, and our relationship of nearly twenty years,” Escudero highlights.
A structure for growth
These two decisions have resulted in a clear structure ready to generate growth across both active and passive segments. As Escudero clarifies, “Rhett will primarily be responsible for relationships with platforms in the US Offshore market; that is, he will focus on where fund selection decisions are made and will work to ensure that as many Invesco funds as possible are included on key lists. His work is complemented by that of LarrainVial, whose extensive experience and network will help us ‘unlock’ and deliver products to investors.”
The firm recognizes that the growth potential is greater in the US Offshore market, which—like the Latin American market—is expected to grow at faster rates than the rest of EMEA markets. “When discussing growth, it is important to note that US Offshore and LatAm are somewhat different markets,” Escudero explains: “As we are structured, LatAm is primarily institutional clients—pension funds, central banks, and authorities—while only 10% is represented by private banks and family offices. With our expanded distribution agreement with LarrainVial, we believe this will change and that we will be able to achieve significant growth in the family office and private banking segment. Moreover, many family offices also have a presence in US Offshore; and this is another segment where we want to grow. This growth would also bring significant business diversification, which is another of our objectives.”
The firm sees a significant growth opportunity in this segment, especially considering that the family office industry in Latin America is approaching $100 billion, of which more than 55% is invested in US Offshore products. “We are talking about between $55 billion and $60 billion in business. The nuance is that each country is different and has a distinct configuration, which is why local knowledge is so important. For example, in Mexico, 90% of US Offshore investments are in ETFs, whereas in Chile ETFs represent only 30%, in Colombia 10%, and in Peru 25%,” Escudero notes.
Regarding growth targets, Escudero avoids giving a specific figure but acknowledges that their outlook for LatAm and US Offshore is to grow “at higher rates than other similarly mature markets, such as Spain or Italy.” He adds: “For US Offshore, we aim to at least double assets over a five-year period.”
From advisory to the investor
Given the firm’s broad product range, the mantra for this growth, according to Escudero, will be “to continue offering the investment solution that best fits each investor, market, and country.” As he acknowledges, advisors are the key piece in aligning these investment solutions: “Unlike what we see in other European regions, in the Americas the decision about fund selection lies with private bankers, which requires a very strong and close commercial network.”
As for investor demand, he believes that despite trends, the essence has changed little. “We are dealing with clients who have fairly diversified portfolios and who quite like multi-asset funds, such as our Global Income strategy. Sometimes they prefer to build their own mix and combine fixed income and equity funds in their portfolios, or opt for model portfolios (MPS), which have recently become popular,” he notes.
Among the trends he observes in this market, Escudero highlights generational change. According to his experience, “new generations demand new communication channels, but they remain traditional investors who seek returns and security for their capital.”
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainPhoto: AmarADestiempo. The Mexican peso gains ground despite Trump
The 2026 FIFA World Cup may influence the dynamics of the peso–dollar exchange rate through various macro-financial and microstructural channels; it is highly likely that for a month the Mexican currency will be immersed in a certain lull, but what happens afterward?
According to analysts, the key point is that the World Cup effect is not a long-term structural driver, but rather a transitory shock with potentially asymmetric effects, depending on the stage of the cycle and market positioning.
The Mexican peso is trading toward 17 units per dollar; so far this year it has recorded an appreciation of 4.05% despite a highly complex geopolitical context. The Mexican currency is once again being referred to as the “super peso,” and it is estimated that World Cup fever will keep it stable or lead to further appreciation.
The Football World Cup tends to generate a significant increase in aspects such as: revenue from international tourism (services account); spending by non-residents in Mexican territory; foreign currency inflows from events, sponsorships, and associated rights.
This implies a greater supply of dollars in the spot market, as well as potential marginal appreciation of the peso during the peak influx phase.
However, the impact is usually limited and short-lived, as part of the spending is channeled through international platforms (resulting in a smaller direct exchange-rate effect); in addition, there are offsetting effects from imports associated with the event.
USMCA in sight and geopolitics: the risks
The Football World Cup will last just over a month; afterward, everything will return to normal. The issue is that in the second half of the year, several factors will need to be considered in determining the trajectory of the most liquid emerging-market currency in global markets: the Mexican peso.
Funds Society spoke with Gabriela Soni, Head of Investment Strategies for Mexico at UBS, about the situation of the peso, especially for the second half of the year.
For the specialist, the renegotiation of USMCA as well as geopolitical risks are currently the factors most likely to determine the future trajectory of the currency.
“We see two main risks: a tightening of global financial conditions and uncertainty surrounding USMCA. In episodes of heightened risk aversion—in a context of elevated geopolitical tensions—exchange rate volatility, capital outflows, and pressure on the peso can arise. Even so, Mexico is better positioned than in previous episodes thanks to stronger domestic fundamentals. Regarding the USMCA review, although we expect the agreement to evolve rather than break down, the negotiation process could trigger episodes of volatility,” said the specialist.
According to Gabriela Soni, the peso strengthened in recent years thanks to a combination of idiosyncratic factors that differentiated it from other emerging markets: a highly favorable interest rate differential that attracted carry flows, the resilience of the U.S. economy that boosted exports and remittances, relatively solid macro fundamentals compared to its peers, and the nearshoring narrative. Together, these elements created an exceptionally favorable environment for the currency.
However, there are also other factors that could put pressure on the currency in the medium term; for example, the reduction of interest rates in Mexico, running counter to the global trend in a context of inflationary pressures.
“The room for Banxico to continue cutting rates exists, but it is increasingly limited and highly dependent on the environment. Banxico’s recent decision to resume the rate-cutting cycle reflects a delicate balance between a weak economy and an still complex inflationary environment,” the expert notes.
“Additionally, the interest rate differential with the U.S. has already narrowed significantly, which limits the support that carry had provided to the peso. In this context, although we anticipate that an additional cut could materialize, it will require clear evidence that inflationary pressures—including those derived from the oil shock—are transitory. Otherwise, the room for maneuver could quickly be exhausted, with implications for the exchange rate,” she says.
Regarding the imminent review (or renegotiation) of USMCA, Gabriela Soni explains: “In our view, trade disputes within the USMCA framework constitute the most likely risk today; although so far the peso has shown limited sensitivity to this uncertainty, supported by the strength of trade flows and the legal framework of the agreement itself, which guarantees its validity for ten additional years even in the absence of an extension agreement. In an extreme scenario—such as a threat of withdrawal by the U.S.—we would anticipate a short-term depreciation of the peso. However, we believe this movement would likely be transitory, as it could be interpreted as a negotiating tactic.”
For the UBS specialist, the peso will remain a resilient currency despite the periods of pressure that are anticipated.
“Our projections point to a gradual appreciation of the peso going forward, with levels of 17.7 by the end of the second quarter of 2026, 17.5 for the third, and 17.2 for both year-end and the first quarter of 2027. However, we anticipate a non-linear path, with episodes of volatility linked to both external and local factors, particularly around USMCA and monetary policy decisions in Mexico and the U.S.”
This year may not be another period of “super peso,” the UBS analyst believes: “The environment has changed: the interest rate differential between Mexico and the U.S. is smaller, the geopolitical context is more complex, and USMCA negotiations introduce a new source of uncertainty. Rather than a ‘super peso,’ 2026 is shaping up to be a period of relative stability with episodes of adjustment, where the currency could regain ground as global conditions stabilize,” she concludes.
Photo courtesyCharles De Quinsonas and Carlos Carranza, from the Emerging Market Fixed Income Team at M&G Investments
2025 has been a good year for investors in emerging markets (EM). In an environment of geopolitical and macroeconomic unease, debt from this universe (EMD) has shown resilience: sovereign bonds denominated in both local currency and hard currency have posted double-digit gains year to date, and corporate debt has delivered an equally positive performance.
In this Q&A, Charles De Quinsonas and Carlos Carranza, from the Emerging Market Fixed Income Team at M&G Investments, share their perspectives on the drivers of returns in the region, the improvement in its fundamentals, and how M&G can capture opportunities in this evolving asset class.
What makes EMD an attractive asset class currently?
EMD is truly interesting right now. This segment already used to offer attractive yields to maturity (YTM), but in recent years its volatility has declined to levels much closer to those seen in developed markets. In addition to this significant change, we also see structural improvements such as lower debt-to-GDP ratios, credible monetary policies, and strong growth prospects. As a result, EMD has moved beyond being merely a tactical play and is becoming a strategic allocation for many investors.
What specific data point do you find most attractive at this moment?
In our opinion, the most notable metric right now is the real yield advantage. Many EM countries offer positive real yields, something uncommon in the developed universe. In Brazil, for example, the central bank chose to raise interest rates early and aggressively (well ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve), allowing investors to obtain attractive real interest rates with inflation under control.
How is M&G positioned to take advantage of these opportunities?
Our EMD team applies a clearly bottom-up approach: we devote a great deal of time to the fundamental analysis of countries and issuers, combining quantitative models with qualitative insights with the aim of identifying inflection points and avoiding idiosyncratic risks. We analyze sovereign and corporate debt jointly, not as separate segments, and we use proprietary tools to determine their sustainability and assign internal ratings. Finally, we have one of the largest credit analysis teams in all of Europe, with more than 50 analysts with an average of 14 years of experience.
Do you see any individual country or sector as more promising than others?
In general, we like local currency bonds in Latin America, where countries with high real interest rates and strong fiscal discipline stand out, such as Brazil and Mexico. We also see many opportunities in Central Asia, in countries such as Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. As for corporate debt, EM companies with low leverage levels and high interest coverage appear attractive to us, especially considering that their spreads are wider than their fundamentals would justify.
How does M&G differentiate itself from other managers in this asset class?
We believe we do so in three areas: flexibility, depth of analysis, and experience. The absence of constraints in our strategy allows us to capture the team’s best ideas across sovereign, corporate, and local currency debt, and to do so in a very holistic way. Our analysis is truly bottom-up, focused on anticipating turning points and managing risk; this is one of the pillars of our activity, as we consider diversification and lack of concentration to be key elements of our investment philosophy.
What development do you believe will have the greatest impact on EM in the coming years?
There are several major themes. The first is the continued strengthening of monetary and fiscal frameworks in these regions, which could represent a decisive shift toward greater stability. The second is demographic trends: 85% of the world’s population lives in EM, and many of these countries have growing working-age populations, which can support long-term growth. Finally, a sustained rotation away from portfolios centered on the United States could occur, as investors question American exceptionalism and seek growth in other markets.
What is your outlook for EM fixed income markets?
EM debt inspires optimism in us. Carry is attractive, fundamentals are improving, and government policies have never been as credible as they are now. Hard currency bond spreads are appealing, although the investment-grade segment is beginning to look expensive. In our view, EMD offers income, growth, and diversification at a time when developed markets are facing increasing challenges. For investors seeking to build resilient portfolios, these bonds could be an interesting allocation.
As the April tax filing deadline approaches, millions of Americans are preparing their returns and anticipating possible refunds. According to experts, this federal tax refund represents a significant financial boost. Notably, Florida, Texas, Wyoming, Nevada, and Louisiana are the five states with the highest average refunds, as identified by a report from Upgraded Points, based on data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).
In addition to differences by state, tax refunds vary significantly depending on income level. As the report notes, higher-income households receive larger refunds on average, but a smaller proportion of them receive one. For example, IRS data show that among taxpayers earning over $200,000, the average refund rose to $17,668. “However, only 35% of returns received a refund, and nearly a third of taxpayers with overpayments chose to apply it to the following year’s taxes,” the report adds.
Wealth tax: a theoretical exercise
However, advisors acknowledge that for HNWI and UHNWI profiles, tax filing is somewhat different, as they manage complex tax structures that must be considered in their financial planning and investments. Given that the U.S. does not have a wealth tax—that is, a tax on the value of assets net of liabilities—tax filing becomes a key moment. But what would be the implications of implementing one?
According to an analysis conducted by the Urban Institute & Brookings Institution, if all assets above $50 million ($25 million for unmarried taxpayers) were subject to a 1% tax, it would raise close to $2 trillion over a 10-year period, with approximately 86% of the burden falling on families in the top 1% of earners.
Additionally, the analysis indicates that increasing the tax rate to 2% for assets above $100 million ($50 million for unmarried taxpayers) or lowering the threshold to $30 million ($15 million) would increase the estimated revenue by approximately an additional $1 trillion. “Revenue estimates decrease by around 45% if the tax base excludes pension benefits, the value of housing above $1 million, and businesses in which the owner actively participates,” they note.
Political dimension
This is a theoretical exercise because, as seen this year, the Trump Administration has no intention of taxing high-net-worth individuals; in fact, its policy moves in the opposite direction: reducing taxes and the fiscal burden on large fortunes. By contrast, looking back, during the 2020 presidential campaign, several candidates proposed broad wealth taxes aimed at the wealthiest households.
“The goals of those proposals were primarily to address wealth inequality and to fund the expansion and creation of new spending programs and tax credits. Although Biden proposed other approaches to achieve those goals and it is unlikely that the Trump administration will raise taxes on the very wealthy, advocates of wealth taxes have continued to push for their adoption: Zucman has proposed a global wealth tax, while legislation has been considered in several states. In the future, interest in wealth taxes could resurface if federal debt and wealth inequality continue to rise,” explain the authors of the cited report.
The document suggests that when policymakers debate these proposals, they should consider four key factors: the tax base and how it may affect individuals’ investment decisions and their ability to avoid the tax; asset valuation and how easily taxpayers could avoid or evade the tax by undervaluing their assets; the threshold and rate of the wealth tax, as well as its interaction with the treatment of personal income tax applied to capital income; and the tax unit and opportunities for individuals to minimize their tax burden by transferring assets to family members.
The private bank of J.P. Morgan has a new executive among its ranks, who was recently hired as a banker and Managing Director. This is Pablo Artigas, a professional with more than 19 years of experience in the financial industry, holding a variety of roles between Santiago and New York.
According to the firm’s Managing Director, José María Fornasari, in a post on his professional LinkedIn network, Artigas joins the Latin America team in the Miami office of the U.S. investment bank, where he will serve ultra-high-net-worth clients.
The professional in question had already announced a week ago his departure from Santander Chile, where he held various roles, accumulating experience in global markets, derivatives, and corporate banking. “I move forward with full motivation, energy, and focus on learning, building, and contributing from day one,” he stated at the time.
Before moving to J.P. Morgan, Artigas served as Managing Director and Head of the Specialized Industries & Corporates area at the Spanish-headquartered firm. During his time at the Chilean bank, he also worked as Executive Director of Banking & Corporate Finance and Head of the Financial Institutions Group.
The executive’s career also includes a previous stint at J.P. Morgan, where he worked between 2006 and 2013 in the derivatives sales area for institutional clients in Chile, Peru, and Central America. In addition, he worked at Société Générale, in Cross Asset Solutions, selling to clients in Mexico, Chile, Peru, and Colombia.
J.P. Morgan’s private bank advises $2.7 trillion (millions of millions) in client assets, with 3,500 advisors working across more than 75 offices globally.
Photo courtesySimon Morton-Grant, Client Portfolio Manager of the CT (Lux) Japan Equities Fund at Columbia Threadneedle Investments
Japan has shifted from behaving like an equity market where investors focused on companies with low margins and high capex to one centered on efficiency and return on capital, where governance has become the cornerstone of this transformation. “The underlying story in Japan is extremely attractive,” says Simon Morton-Grant, Client Portfolio Manager of the CT (Lux) Japan Equities fund at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
The expert, who recently visited Spain, highlighted the multiple growth catalysts his firm currently sees in this market: first, efforts to continue increasing shareholder returns (ROE) remain in place, with a new record for share buybacks in 2025; second, the country is once again posting positive growth, and after deep reforms in recent years, the TOPIX index has become a reflection of that growth; third, Japanese household savings amount to around $14 trillion, and half of that money is held in cash, leading the firm to expect—in a context of rising inflation—that part of those savings will flow into equity markets to avoid loss of purchasing power; fourth, the expert highlights the willingness of the new government to continue deep political and economic reforms to further stimulate national growth. For these reasons, the expert is clear: “Any point of weakness from here on could be a good entry point to invest in Japan’s long-term structural growth story.”
Is the rise in geopolitical risk due to the Iran conflict affecting the Japanese stock market in any way?
We want to make it clear to our clients that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have the potential to impact the global economy. Japan imports more than 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, although it makes virtually no direct imports from Iran. We believe that, for now, this situation remains contained in Japan’s case, as it has several measures to mitigate these effects. First, it has oil reserves equivalent to 245 days—one of the highest coverages among developed economies, roughly eight months—which provides a short-term buffer. Second, Japanese authorities have estimated that oil prices would need to reach and remain at $175 per barrel for a prolonged period for Japan to enter a recession; currently, we are far from that level. Even if it were reached, it would need to be sustained for some time.
This is therefore a risk that must be monitored. However, the team has just returned from Japan and, in meetings with companies—at a time when this situation was already beginning to unfold—firms believed they could pass on increased costs to consumers without materially affecting margins. It is an evolving conflict and should be closely watched for changes, but at current levels we do not see a cause for excessive concern.
Can movements in the Japanese yen significantly impact Japanese companies, especially exporters?
It should be noted that we are not macroeconomic specialists. That said, we believe that if the yen were to exceed 160 against the dollar, the government or the Bank of Japan could intervene. Within the 140–160 range, the environment remains relatively comfortable for Japanese equities. Moreover, the historical correlation between a rising Japanese stock market and a weakening yen has diminished in recent years. Japan is no longer necessarily a bet on a weak yen. The economy now has more growth drivers: domestic companies are contributing to earnings growth and, therefore, to index performance, something that was not the case 10–15 years ago, when exporters were the main engine. In the portfolio, we have a natural hedging mechanism: a weak yen benefits exporters, while a strong yen favors domestic businesses.
Sanae Takaichi plans to deepen Abenomics. How could this affect your asset class?
We do not usually pay much attention to changes in prime minister, but in this case it is relevant. She is a potentially transformative figure who breaks with the traditional profile of Japanese political leadership and maintains a strong pro-growth focus. She is an heir to Shinzo Abe’s legacy: expansionary fiscal policy, accommodative monetary policy, and significant fiscal stimulus. We believe her economic and reform agenda could boost the market and open a new phase of growth in Japan. In addition, the new governing coalition has a clear pro-growth bias and supports decentralization, shifting part of the economic weight from Tokyo to other regions such as Osaka. This could increase the value of land and assets in those regions and foster greater economic dynamism.
Another key element is her industrial policy and the associated investment opportunities. Takaichi prioritizes increased spending on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, nuclear reactivation, defense, and economic security. These areas form a new universe of opportunities under the current administration. She has also managed to unify the party, attract younger support, and consolidate a stable political base—crucial for implementing meaningful reforms.
Where do valuations currently stand?
Compared to historical averages, valuations have increased slightly over the past year. However, the higher multiples often highlighted in the media are heavily influenced by large-cap and more expensive stocks. Looking at the TOPIX index, around 35% trades below book value, indicating that many attractive opportunities still exist. In relative terms, while U.S. valuations are above their historical average, Japan remains cheaper, especially in a context of rotation away from U.S. exceptionalism.
Where are you finding opportunities?
Historically, Japan has been associated with automation, a highly sought-after sector. However, following a recent visit, the team has identified new areas of interest. First, infrastructure renewal. Two growth drivers coexist: on one hand, more visible sectors such as artificial intelligence or electric vehicles, with strong demand but higher cyclical sensitivity; on the other, the replacement of infrastructure built during the late-1980s bubble. The latter represents structural, stable, long-term demand, especially in construction.
Second, the so-called “oshikatsu” economy, or fandom economy, where consumers follow athletes, actors, or content creators. This phenomenon, particularly relevant among Generation Z, creates opportunities in merchandising and digital platforms. Third, economic security and defense. The new government is adopting a firmer foreign policy stance, and increased defense spending as a share of GDP opens opportunities in shipbuilding, cybersecurity, and other segments.
Of course, we remain exposed to companies linked to robotics, a structural trend in Japan, which accounts for approximately 50% of the global industry.
What risks are you monitoring?
One of the main focuses is public debt. Although the debt-to-GDP ratio is around 200%, 90% of the bonds are held domestically, which provides stability. In addition, high tax pressure and a near-zero deficit reinforce sustainability. By comparison, the U.S. or China have deficits of around -6%. The second risk is geopolitical, particularly in the relationship between Japan and China. While tensions exist, we do not anticipate structural deterioration, given the significant global impact it would have. Finally, the Middle East remains the main short-term risk. Oil price developments will be key, as they could trigger inflationary or energy tensions in Japan.
Do you expect a rebound in inflation in Japan?
It is possible in the current context, but levels remain manageable. The Bank of Japan postponed a rate hike initially expected in March, likely to April or May. Even if rates reach 1% or 1.25%, monetary policy would remain accommodative. We believe the Bank of Japan is in a normalization process, not a tightening cycle. At current inflation levels, companies can pass costs on to consumers without significant impact. This reflects a structural shift in Japan toward a virtuous cycle of wage growth and inflation, which could be positive for the economy, economic policy, and markets.
