“High valuations are not automatically a sign of excess.” This is stated by Anita Patel, Investment Director at Capital Group, referring to the fact that they reflect the strength of the U.S. economy and corporate earnings. In addition, the expert holds cautiously optimistic forecasts on AI, pointing to the magnitude of investment linked to the wave of productivity that this technology will bring, which she considers structural.
With this idea as a guiding thread, Patel goes on to explain how to interpret the current market environment, the changes in the structure of the equity market, and the main risks for the remainder of the year.
Are U.S. equity valuations justified?
U.S. equities are trading at elevated levels, and valuations in some segments, especially in large companies exposed to AI, are demanding. The S&P 500 stands above its historical valuation averages, and the largest technology companies trade at around 34 times forward earnings, compared to approximately 22 times for the overall market.
That said, high valuations are not automatically a sign of excess. They reflect strong earnings growth, a resilient economy, and the volume of investment associated with the current productivity wave driven by AI. Revenue growth linked to this technology is real and quantifiable: semiconductor companies generated more than $400 billion in sales last year, the highest figure on record, while leaders such as NVIDIA more than doubled their year-over-year revenue amid the race among cloud providers to secure computing capacity.
Is AI in bubble territory?
The volume of capital deployed points to structural demand rather than speculative enthusiasm. Hyperscalers have invested more than $400 billion annually in chips and data centers, with Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet signaling increases in capex for 2026. Many companies also indicate that they will remain capacity-constrained well into 2026, demonstrating that demand for AI computing continues to exceed supply.
Although there are pockets of overheating, especially in private AI startups or early-stage infrastructure projects, the listed market has already begun to differentiate between profitable leaders and more speculative names. Since the end of 2025, several prominent AI stocks have moved sideways while the broader market advanced, suggesting normalization rather than a bubble.
Outside the technology sector, valuations are much more attractive, especially in utilities, healthcare, financials, and some industrial segments, where earnings growth has been solid and multiples are closer to their historical averages.
This dispersion reinforces the appeal of diversified and actively managed approaches such as the Capital Group Investment Company of America (LUX) (ICA) fund, aimed at building broad portfolios across different sectors of the economy. In fact, these areas have begun to outperform the market in recent months, as investors seek sources of return beyond large technology companies.
Regarding corporate earnings, do they show a healthy trend? Which areas are stronger or more vulnerable?
Corporate earnings show a healthy tone. The United States recorded its tenth consecutive quarter of growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an increase of 13% and a broad majority of companies beating expectations, reinforcing the strength of the corporate cycle.
This growth is widespread and not limited to large technology companies. Sectors such as financials, industrials, materials, real estate, healthcare, utilities, and consumer discretionary have delivered solid results, supported by firm demand, improvements in supply chains, and increased investment amid lower tariff uncertainty.
The aerospace and defense sector is experiencing a multi-year upcycle driven by global travel demand and a high order backlog. GE Aerospace, for example, has recorded strong growth in both orders and margins, supported by the normalization of bottlenecks and the weight of recurring aftermarket revenue.
The healthcare sector has also stood out: companies such as Eli Lilly advanced more than 40% in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by the success of their drugs and promising pipelines.
Among the more vulnerable segments are some consumer discretionary companies exposed to rising tariff-related costs and pressure on lower-income households, as well as part of the software sector, where AI-based programming tools are putting pressure on traditional revenue models.
Overall, however, the resilience of earnings across sectors remains one of the key pillars supporting current valuations. For strategies such as ICA, based on bottom-up stock selection rather than concentration in a few growth names, this breadth of earnings opens multiple avenues for return generation.
Market breadth has been limited by the weight of the “Magnificent 7.” Has anything changed? Should we expect greater dispersion?
Market breadth has improved significantly in recent months. After several years in which a small group of large technology companies accounted for most of the returns, broader market participation is now evident.
Equal-weight indices such as the S&P 500 Equal Weight have outperformed the traditional S&P 500 since October 2025, and sectors such as healthcare, industrials, materials, and energy have led gains, while many AI-related stocks have taken a breather.
This shift is driven by two factors: more reasonable valuations outside the top decile of the market and stronger earnings growth across the broader corporate landscape.
A relevant data point is that only two of the “Magnificent Seven” were among the 100 best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 in 2025, marking a shift from previous years and showing that investors are rediscovering the broader universe of opportunities. In addition, more than 60% of index constituents are trading above their 200-day moving average, another indicator of improved breadth.
As spending on AI is analyzed more rigorously and investors focus on fundamentals and return on invested capital, dispersion is likely to increase both across sectors and within them, an environment traditionally favorable for active management.
What lesson should investors draw from the volatility of 2025? What risks do you anticipate for 2026?
The main lesson of 2025 is that volatility does not equal vulnerability. The year began with trade tensions and recession fears, but the U.S. economy proved resilient, inflation moderated, and equity markets rebounded strongly. The S&P 500 closed with a return of 18%, underscoring the importance of staying invested even during periods of high uncertainty.
Looking ahead to 2026, a more stable environment is expected, although geopolitical developments will remain a factor to monitor. Inflation is projected to approach 2.5%, interest rates are expected to trend downward, and consumption should continue to be supported by unusually large tax refunds, which could inject between $100 billion and $200 billion into households as early as the summer.
Corporate earnings continue to show strength, and real GDP growth of around 2.5% is expected, with upside potential if productivity gains from AI accelerate.
However, risks remain: potential changes in tariff policy, the capital intensity of AI infrastructure deployment, which could pressure margins if end demand slows, and the proximity of the U.S. midterm election cycle, historically associated with higher volatility. It is also important to monitor public debt dynamics, which exceed 120% of GDP, as well as rising financing costs.
Even so, the fundamentals of the U.S. market, high corporate profitability, deep capital markets, leadership in AI, and a resilient consumer, remain intact. For long-term investors, 2025 has reinforced the importance of diversification, downside resilience, and disciplined active management, which are core pillars of ICA’s investment approach across market cycles.