Tax Optimization Becomes the New Battleground for Wealth Manager Differentiation

Tax optimization is rapidly becoming the new battleground for wealth manager differentiation. After decades spent trying to improve their stock-picking capabilities, managed account sponsors have largely decided that it is time to take tax optimization seriously, according to The Cerulli Report—U.S. Managed Accounts 2026. For the second consecutive year, “enhancing tax management capabilities” stands as the single most important priority for platform sponsors by a wide margin. In fact, 76% of sponsors identify tax management capabilities as a key focus of development, followed by 42% who cite the incorporation of illiquid product options.

“The implementation and adoption of tax management capabilities is likely to have a more obvious and profound impact on client portfolios,” states Scott Smith, senior director. “While stock selection is weighed down by the reality that ‘past performance is no guarantee of future returns,’ tax optimization capabilities offer a far more reliable source of post-tax alpha,” Smith emphasizes.

With several firms offering integrated optimization features and the consolidation of unified managed household (UMH) platforms becoming a reality, platform sponsors that have failed to make significant strides in tax optimization face a severe competitive disadvantage. Regarding where firms stand in this environment, the director warns: “Firms in this position must evaluate their current status and immediately implement a platform development strategy before advisors and clients begin transferring their assets to providers that allow them to maximize their post-tax net worth.”

Looking ahead, wealth managers will need to ensure that tax optimization capabilities are so seamlessly integrated into advisor workflows that choosing not to adopt them becomes the more costly path. “Advisors who are resistant to change may jump on the bandwagon once they realize it is the path of least resistance; moreover, their clients will benefit and potentially gain a clearer understanding of the value their advisors bring,” Scott concludes.

AEW Names Bianca Kraus Head of Investor Relations for Europe

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

AEW, an affiliate of Natixis IM, has announced the appointment of Bianca Kraus as Head of Investor Relations Europe, effective July 1, 2026. Bianca is based in Munich and will report to Vanessa Roux-Collet, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of AEW in Europe.

As highlighted by the firm, Bianca joined AEW in 2019 as Head of Investor Relations for Germany, and since 2023 she has been leading the company’s investor relations for the entire DACH region, where she was responsible for building and maintaining relationships with institutional investors and consultants in Germany, Austria, and German-speaking Switzerland. Bianca has raised capital for AEW’s global platform, securing segregated account mandates on behalf of institutional investors and raising capital for the manager’s flagship funds.

In her new role, Bianca will lead AEW’s European investor relations team, supervising capital raising and client servicing for the firm across Europe. Bianca will work in close collaboration with Vanessa Roux-Collet to execute AEW’s European growth strategy, while ensuring continuity of service for existing clients.

Bianca joined AEW from BNP Paribas REIM Germany, where she served as Head of Client and Fund Relations, and brings nearly 30 years of experience in real estate investment management, having spent the last fifteen years in executive roles within investor relations.

Vanessa Roux-Collet, CEO of AEW in Europe, commented that investor relations are an integral part of their business strategy and that Bianca has played a fundamental role in creating and consolidating strong relationships with institutional investor clients over the last seven years. She noted that Bianca’s promotion to Head of Investor Relations Europe is a natural step, and expressed enthusiasm for working with her to ensure continued exemplary client service and to focus on growing the business.

Bianca Kraus, Head of Investor Relations Europe at AEW, added that after leading AEW’s investor relations in the DACH region over recent years, she is excited to expand her responsibilities across Europe alongside their top-tier team. She stated that the firm has a clear growth strategy that leverages expertise across key conviction themes where they possess deep knowledge and can offer clients attractive investment opportunities.

AFOREs: More Capacity to Invest, But Where Are the Local Opportunities?

| By Beltrán | 0 Comentarios

Mexico’s AFORE pension funds have more regulatory capacity than ever to invest in alternative assets. The challenge is no longer capital availability—it is the supply of institutional-quality investment opportunities capable of absorbing long-term pension capital. This shift has important implications for both Mexico’s private markets and international alternative asset managers, particularly those active in private equity, secondaries, private credit, infrastructure, real estate, and other private market strategies. Under the current regulatory framework, AFOREs may allocate up to 30% of their portfolios to structured assets. The framework has evolved significantly over the past two years.

While the original 20% allocation remains predominantly internationally oriented, regulators approved an additional 10% allocation in October 2024 with a much stronger domestic focus. In practice, this means that roughly two-thirds of the total capacity remains available for international investments, while approximately one-third is intended to support local opportunities. The objective is to strengthen financing for the Mexican economy while preserving the global diversification that AFOREs have developed over the past decade. If successful, the new framework could channel additional capital toward infrastructure, energy, real estate, private credit, and other sectors capable of generating long-term economic growth.

As of April 2026, AFOREs managed approximately US$500.2 billion in assets. They held roughly US$39.3 billion in private equity investments at market value, representing 7.8% of assets under management. When unfunded commitments are included, my own estimates suggest total exposure to alternative assets reaches approximately 16.6%—already approaching the original 20% regulatory threshold. The challenge, however, goes well beyond expanding regulatory limits.

AFOREs need more than attractive projects. They require institutional investment platforms with experienced management teams, strong governance, proven execution capabilities, proven exit track records, and the operational scale necessary to deploy hundreds of millions of dollars efficiently. In today’s more selective environment, demonstrated liquidity generation and realized returns have become just as important as the underlying investment opportunity. The same discipline applies to international investments. Over time, AFOREs have increasingly concentrated commitments with global managers that possess institutional-scale organizations, deep investment teams, and long-established track records.

Paradoxically, although regulatory capacity for alternative investments has expanded, actual portfolio allocations have not followed the same path. Combined exposure to CKDs (Mexico’s domestic private markets vehicles) and CERPIs (vehicles primarily used for international private market investments) declined from approximately 8.9% of portfolios in December 2024 to around 8.3% by the end of April 2026.

More importantly, the composition of those investments has changed considerably. In 2024, allocations were almost evenly split between domestic and international strategies. Based on my estimates as of March 2026, international exposure has increased from approximately 4.5% to 5.3%, while domestic exposure has declined from about 4.4% to roughly 3.0%. This shift should not necessarily be interpreted as a growing preference for international assets. Rather, it reflects the limited availability of domestic investment opportunities capable of absorbing institutional capital at scale.

Since 2024, issuance of Trust Stock Certificates (CEBURs) has accelerated, broadening access to private equity strategies for insurance companies, private banks, and other institutional investors through exchange-listed vehicles. These instruments complement the investment structures traditionally used by AFOREs—namely CKDs and CERPIs—and reflect the continued evolution of Mexico’s private markets ecosystem.

Ultimately, Mexico has largely addressed the regulatory side of the equation. The next stage will depend on whether the domestic private markets ecosystem can consistently generate investment opportunities with the scale, governance, quality, and risk-return profile required by institutional investors. Regulation can create investment capacity, but only a robust pipeline of institutional-quality opportunities will translate that capacity into higher allocations to Mexican alternative assets.

Opinion column by Arturo Hanono, Senior Advisor in Mexico for Alpine Capital Advisors

Buried Gold on Both Sides of the Atlantic: The Little-Known Path to Claiming Social Security Benefits in Spain and the United States

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Pirate stories of buried treasure in remote places have captured the imagination for centuries. Americans who have worked in Spain and Spaniards who have worked in the United States might not be digging holes on tropical islands, but they could also be sitting on a treasure that has gone unnoticed.

That treasure is the retirement pensions to which we might be entitled in the United States or in Spain. We might think that we haven’t contributed to Social Security for enough years to qualify for a pension in the United States (generally 40 credits, equivalent to about 10 years of work). Or we know that we haven’t worked long enough in Spain to access a pension (normally at least 15 years of contributions). Fortunately, this does not mean that the contributions we have accumulated are left “abandoned” on a deserted island. Thanks to a treaty between the United States and Spain known as the Social Security Totalization Agreement, we can combine contribution periods from both countries to meet the minimum eligibility requirements.

Best of all, the Totalization Agreement works in both directions. We can use contributions made in Spain to qualify for Social Security benefits in the United States, or use contributions made in the United States to access benefits in Spain. When a professional career spans both countries, it is easy to fall short of the minimum requirements in each. The agreement resolves this issue by allowing work periods to be added together so those years are not lost. In a way, it is a modern-day treasure map.

Both Spain and the United States review the combined contribution record to determine whether we meet eligibility criteria. However, just as pirates divided their loot according to a strict code, Social Security benefits are also distributed under very precise rules. Each country pays its portion separately:

United States Benefits: The United States can take into account contribution periods in Spain to help us meet minimum eligibility requirements. If we gain entitlement through this mechanism, the benefit will be proportional and calculated solely on the basis of our work history in the United States.
Spain Benefits: Spain can credit contributions made in the United States to help us meet the minimum required period and will subsequently pay a proportional pension based exclusively on contributions made in Spain.

This does not mean that both systems merge into a single benefit. Each country pays exclusively its own corresponding share. Contributions are combined solely to establish eligibility, not to increase the payout amount. Contribution periods are not transferred from one country to another; they remain within the system where they were generated and are simply recognized by the other state.

In other words, while contributions can be aggregated to satisfy eligibility thresholds, the actual amount of each benefit will depend solely on the years worked in each respective country. For example, if we have worked 6 years in the United States and 11 years in Spain:

The U.S. benefit will be calculated solely on those 6 years of U.S. contributions.
The Spanish pension will be based exclusively on the 11 years of contributions made in Spain.

Each country will pay its proportionate share: we will not receive an extraordinary windfall, but neither will we lose the contributions we worked so hard to accumulate. The key lies in ensuring we meet the minimum thresholds—at least 6 U.S. credits (roughly one and a half years of work) and at least one year of contributions in Spain—to be eligible for the treaty’s provisions when the time comes.

We may never find a pirate chest filled with gold doubloons, but if we have worked in both Spain and the United States, we may uncover a treasure that is just as valuable. Thanks to the Totalization Agreement, our “hidden treasure” is not buried under the sand: it has been built over years of hard work and, with the right map, is completely within our reach.

Julius Baer Breaks Records: Private Bank Accelerates with More Active Clients and Wealth at Record Highs

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Swiss private banking group Julius Baer confirmed that the global wealth management business maintains strong momentum, reporting record half-year results driven by three factors currently dominating the industry: recovering financial markets, heightened client investment activity, and stricter cost control.

The institution posted an IFRS net profit of CHF 673 million (around $828.37 million), the largest in its history for a first half, representing a 128% increase compared to the CHF 295 million earned in the same period of 2025. Earnings per share nearly doubled, rising from CHF 1.44 to CHF 3.27.

The Real Engine: Growing Assets Under Management and Active Clients

Beyond earnings growth, the metric that best reflects business performance is the trajectory of assets under management (AuM). Julius Baer raised its managed assets to an all-time high of CHF 547 billion ($673.26 billion), equivalent to 5% growth year-to-date.

This progress was supported by three key factors: first, the appreciation of financial markets; second, favorable foreign exchange movements; and third, net new money inflows of CHF 5.7 billion ($7.015 billion).

For the wealth management industry, this indicator is particularly relevant because the scale of assets under management dictates a significant portion of recurring fee income.

Against a backdrop where many high-net-worth investors have increased their exposure to equities, private credit, and alternative strategies, specialized private banks are capturing both market appreciation and fresh capital flows.

Clients Returned to Trading

Another standout element of the half-year was the sharp rise in transactional activity. The gross margin expanded to 87 basis points, up from 83 basis points a year earlier, propelled by “exceptionally high” client activity during the first quarter, the wealth manager stated.

This metric reflects that clients not only kept their capital invested, but also executed a higher volume of transactions, thereby boosting revenues from brokerage, advisory, and investment management services.

This behavior coincides with an environment of elevated volatility across global markets, where movements in interest rates, currencies, and equities have encouraged portfolio rebalancing among high-net-worth investors.

Perhaps the most compelling takeaway from the report is that Julius Baer managed to simultaneously boost revenue and improve efficiency. According to its figures, the adjusted cost/income ratio dropped to 62.6%, down from 68.2% a year earlier, reflecting greater operating leverage.

In other words, the bank generated higher revenues without its costs rising at the same pace—a trend pursued by virtually every major international wealth manager today. In an environment where competitive pressures keep management fees constrained, productivity gains have become one of the primary drivers of sector profitability.

A Solid Balance Sheet to Fuel Further Growth

The Swiss bank’s results add to a trend seen during this earnings season among leading wealth management institutions. In recent months, several global entities have displayed a combination of higher assets under management, recovering fee income, and expanding operating efficiency—fueled by market rebounds and the return of activity among high-net-worth investors.

In this context, Julius Baer’s record performance reinforces the view that the wealth management business continues to benefit from a favorable backdrop for financial wealth creation, alongside a greater willingness among clients to mobilize their portfolios—two factors currently translating into top-line growth for private banking specialists.

Commodities: The Market Story Implied by the “El Niño” Phenomenon

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

After Spain, the new name capturing attention in the markets is El Niño. According to experts, this weather phenomenon—currently in a phase of active strengthening and intensification in the equatorial Pacific Ocean—could complicate the path of inflation, supply chains, and expectations in commodity markets, particularly agricultural ones.

For experts at Lombard Odier, climate volatility is becoming a global phenomenon. “Recurrent phenomena such as the El Niño cycle are displaying unusual intensity and timing, amplifying the frequency and severity of extreme weather events across multiple regions, with potential macroeconomic repercussions,” they argue in their latest report.

It is certainly a risk that, behind the geopolitical headlines, is beginning to gain traction. “The El Niño phenomenon currently constitutes the central scenario through early 2027. While its direct impact on developed economies remains limited, its effects on food supply, hydroelectric generation, and more agriculture-dependent economies represent a genuine supply-side risk that could keep headline inflation elevated for longer and complicate the disinflation process on which equity markets currently rely,” maintains Terry Ewing, Head of Equities at MIFL.

To understand the impact this phenomenon has on commodities, the data speaks for itself: in 2023–2024, cocoa surged 250%, sugar reached its highest price in over a decade, and rice exporters closed their borders. The Oceanic Niño Index, which represents the three-month moving average of sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific, points toward what meteorologists describe as a strong or very strong event. “Compounded by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—which have slowed the flow of fertilizers from the Middle East precisely when farmers need to secure inputs—this event comes at a time of unusual fragility for global food production,” notes Aneeka Gupta, Director of Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree.

Commodities and Regions

However, one of the primary considerations experts point out is that not all commodities will be affected equally; rather, it depends on the geographic region in question. As Gupta explains, South and Southeast Asia are the most exposed regions. “Scantier monsoon rains and above-normal temperatures are classic features of El Niño in this region, directly impacting rice, sugar, and coffee crops. Rice production in India and Thailand has dropped sharply during previous severe episodes, and there is a real risk that supply strain could once again trigger export restrictions, further tightening global balances,” she points out.

She adds that the impact in West Africa will center on the cocoa harvest, where production could decline considerably, while in Australia, a sharp drop in wheat acreage is expected, with a potential production decrease of approximately 9 million metric tons in the 2026/27 crop year. “Not all regions face this situation. Argentina is one of the few countries that structurally benefits from El Niño, as above-average rainfall typically favors soybean, corn, and wheat production. Conditions also tend to improve in parts of the southern United States. These are genuine counterweights, but they are unlikely to fully offset what Asia and Africa may lose,” the expert emphasizes.

The Historical Conclusion

Taking a historical perspective, as summarized by Darwei Kung, Co-Head of Commodities at DWS, price spikes in agricultural products tend to be shorter-lived than those seen in metals or energy. “However, when market supply is tight, even small harvest disruptions can cause rapid price movements. Added to this is a long-term structural trend: rising demand for biofuels, driven by governments aiming to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. We expect to continue seeing upward pressure on food prices over the coming months and years,” Kung explains.

According to his analysis, these effects usually emerge with a lag and vary by crop and region, but they can carry significant consequences for monetary policy. “Food prices significantly influence inflation expectations beyond their actual weight within the consumer basket,” he concludes.

Ultimately, Kung contends that El Niño is not merely a weather story, nor is it exclusively a food story: “For investors, it is also a story of volatility. High fertilizer costs, energy market uncertainty, and fragile food supply chains make agricultural markets more vulnerable today.”

AI, Geopolitics, and Nearshoring: The Physical Transformation of Latin America

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The global race for artificial intelligence is often viewed through the lens of software and semiconductors. However, on the ground in Latin America, AI is taking shape as a broader physical and geopolitical transformation. As the world embarks on a projected infrastructure investment in AI of between $5 trillion and $8 trillion by 2030, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute’s 2026 Global Outlook, the region is becoming increasingly integrated into this structural shift.

We are witnessing the convergence of three powerful megaforces: the AI revolution, the reshaping of global supply chains, and the transition to a low-carbon energy system. These forces do not operate in isolation; they are deeply interconnected and mutually reinforcing, creating a new landscape for investors.

The scale of the digital infrastructure underpinning AI is becoming increasingly visible across Latin America. Global cloud providers and private-sector partnerships are expanding their investments in data centers and connectivity, reflecting growing demand for computing capacity. By late 2025, real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield projected a significant increase in data center capacity across the region toward the end of the decade.

This infrastructure expansion is unfolding amid an increasingly complex geopolitical backdrop. As global fragmentation increases, countries are placing greater emphasis on technological resilience. In Latin America, this is contributing to the development of local AI capabilities and a firmer focus on data governance and local infrastructure.

At the same time, efforts to bolster supply chain resilience are restructuring manufacturing and trade flows. Mexico, for instance, has become more closely integrated into North America’s high-value supply chains, extending beyond traditional manufacturing into more advanced sectors, including technology and advanced components. This trend highlights the region’s growing relevance in the evolution of global production networks.

However, one of the primary hurdles to this transformation is energy. The infrastructure supporting AI requires an abundant and reliable power supply. In this context, various areas of Latin America benefit from relatively high levels of renewable energy generation, which can support the development of energy-intensive infrastructure while aligning with decarbonization goals. The region also plays a central role in the global supply of critical minerals, further reinforcing its importance in both the energy and digital transitions.

From an investment perspective, these dynamics underscore the importance of adopting a more granular and selective approach to capturing opportunities. As structural forces reshape economies and markets, outcomes are likely to vary significantly across sectors, countries, and asset classes. This suggests that a more selective approach may be required to pinpoint exactly where value is being created.

Our perspective draws from both global analysis and hands-on investment experience on the ground. While the opportunities tied to AI, infrastructure, and supply chain shifts are significant, they come with macroeconomic, regulatory, and execution challenges. Understanding this balance is essential for investors seeking to navigate the region’s evolving role in the global economy.

For investors, Latin America is not merely a passive beneficiary of these global trends, but an increasingly central part of how they unfold. At the intersection of sovereign AI ambitions, reshaped supply chains, and the energy transition, the region is positioning itself as a vital component for long-term structural growth.

Global Dividends Rise 10.1% in the First Quarter of 2026

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Global dividends reached $424.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026, marking a 10.1% year-on-year increase, according to the first edition of Janus Henderson’s Global Dividend and Share Buyback Index. Dividend growth was widespread, with significant increases in North America, Europe, Japan, and the UK, despite a turbulent macroeconomic context.

The new index expands Janus Henderson’s dividend research to include share buybacks, offering a more comprehensive view of how the world’s largest companies return capital to shareholders. In the first quarter, global buybacks reached $425.7 billion, slightly above dividend payouts, but fell 3.1% compared to the same period last year, suggesting that companies are becoming more selective in their approach to shareholder returns.

Dividends show resilience while buybacks moderate

According to the report, the first quarter highlighted a divergence between dividends and buybacks. Dividend payouts accelerated, supported by resilient corporate earnings, while buybacks moderated against a backdrop of higher-for-longer interest rates, trade uncertainty, and geopolitical risk.

North America continued to dominate global shareholder returns. The United States contributed $183.5 billion in dividends, representing 46.3% of the index total, and repurchased $266.7 billion in shares, making it by far the largest market globally for both dividends and buybacks. US dividend growth was broad-based across sectors, with technology, financials, and energy among the main contributors.

Europe, excluding the UK, paid $67.4 billion in dividends in the first quarter, representing a 35.5% year-on-year increase, driven by currency effects and payment timing. Switzerland was the continent’s largest payer with a payout of $27.3 billion, followed by Denmark with $9.4 billion.

UK dividends boosted by special payouts

UK companies paid $17.7 billion in dividends during the first quarter, outpaying every other European country except Switzerland. According to the report, overall growth reached 17.7%, driven by special dividends, including a £3.60 per share special dividend from Next following strong overseas sales, and a special dividend from Reckitt following the divestment of its Essential Home business.

Apart from special dividends, UK payouts were supported by a wide range of companies, including AstraZeneca and Shell. The UK also executed $5.8 billion in buybacks in the first quarter, more than any other European country with the exception of Germany.

Financial sector leads distributions, while AI investment drives basic materials

The financial sector remained the largest contributor to global dividends in the first quarter, with a distribution of $90.8 billion. The sector also led global buybacks, with $110.7 billion in repurchases, accounting for more than a third of the index total.

The basic materials sector posted the highest dividend growth among all industries analyzed, with payouts surging 47.1% over the period. This was driven by strong demand for essential minerals, such as copper and lithium, which are critical inputs for data centers, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence infrastructure, Janus Henderson highlighted.

“Technology also remained central to shareholder returns. The sector distributed $43.7 billion in dividends and executed $66.6 billion in buybacks in the first quarter, underscoring the ongoing importance of mega-cap tech companies to global capital returns,” the firm emphasized.

Dividend outlook improves, but buyback decline expected

Janus Henderson forecasts global dividend growth of 8.3% in 2026, up from 6.8% in 2025. In contrast, global buybacks are expected to decline by 1.1% this year, after growing 6.1% in 2025.

The outlook for dividends remains backed by resilient earnings, though Janus Henderson notes that higher-for-longer interest rates, geopolitical risk, and pressure on consumer-facing sectors remain key risks. Buybacks are expected to stay more cyclical, offering flexibility to companies if conditions deteriorate.

Jane Shoemake, client portfolio manager on the global equity team at Janus Henderson, stated: “Amid what appears to be an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, the surprise has been the resilience of earnings worldwide. Those earnings almost always translate into higher dividends, and that is exactly what we are seeing now across a wide range of sectors and regions.”

“Share buybacks add another dimension to the picture. The absolute level of buybacks remains substantial, generally matching first-quarter dividends, but the modest year-on-year decline also highlights why they should be treated differently. Dividends are generally long-term board decisions based on sustainability, while share buybacks are more discretionary and cyclical in nature. In that sense, dividends remain the clearest signal of confidence, while buybacks act as a more flexible buffer,” Shoemake concluded.

Is the Fed Heading Toward a New Monetary Tightening Cycle?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Here is the full translation of the text into English, formatted in Title Case as requested:

Federal Reserve Set to Meet as Rate Cut Expectations Fade and Inflation Debate Continues

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Will Meet Again Next July 29, Against a Market Backdrop Where, According to Experts from International Investment Firms, the Reasons for an Interest Rate Cut Seem to be Vanishing. Specifically, They Highlight That June’s CPI and PPI Reports Surprised to the Downside, Which Reduced the Risk of an Imminent Rate Hike by the Fed and Caused Yields on Two-Year Treasury Bonds to Fall.

“June Inflation Data Represented a Double Favorable Blow to the Market. Headline CPI Fell 0.4% Month-on-Month, Reducing the Annual Rate from 4.2% to 3.5%, While the Core CPI Remained Unchanged for the Month and Moderated to 2.6% Year-on-Year. Today’s PPI Report Reinforced This Message by Falling 0.3% Against Expectations of a Flat Reading, with Core Measures Also Weaker Than Expected. Energy Was a Key Factor in Both Releases, but the Moderation in Core Consumer Prices and Core Producer Price Indicators Suggests the Improvement Was Not Exclusively Due to Oil,” Explains Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Analyst at Julius Baer.

Furthermore, Experts Point Out That New York Fed President John Williams’ View That Monetary Policy Is Well Positioned and That Inflation Has Likely Peaked Reinforces the Case for Keeping Rates Unchanged. However, Markets Still Anticipate Potential Monetary Tightening Later This Year, with a Possible Resolution in the Strait of Hormuz Offering an Additional Disinflationary Catalyst. All of This Leaves the Scenario Open to Debate.

Latest Inflation Data

In the View of Martin Hochstein, Senior Economist at Allianz Global Investors, Persistent Inflation, Shifting Fed Forecasts, and the Approach Likely to be Taken by Kevin Warsh Point Toward a New Cycle of Monetary Tightening. “Our Baseline Scenario Regarding the Resilience of the Global Economy Remains Unchanged. Nevertheless, Inflation Continues to Sit Above Target Levels in Most Major Economies. Additionally, a Spike in Market Volatility Could Test Our Central Scenario of an Economy That Bends but Does Not Break,” He Explains.

In This Context, the Asset Manager Has Revised Its Forecasts for U.S. Interest Rates, Considering That the Risk Profile Has Shifted: Whereas It Previously Pointed Toward Further Rate Cuts, It Now Supports the Possibility of a New Cycle of Monetary Tightening. They Now Expect the Federal Reserve to Raise Its Policy Rate by a Total of 50 Basis Points During the Second Half of the Year.

“Until Now, We Expected Kevin Warsh, the New Fed Chair, to Take a More Gradual Approach Before Initiating Rate Hikes. Initially, Our Base Case Contemplates Rate Increases in September and December. However, We Do Not Rule Out the Fed Front-Loading Part of the Tightening Cycle, Though We See Hikes at the July and September Meetings as Unlikely. The Three Factors Explaining This Shift in Our Assessment Are Persistent Inflation Showing No Signs of Abating; Inflation Outlooks from the Fed That Contrast with Its Monetary Policy Stance; and Markets Misinterpreting the Leadership Change at the Fed,” Argues Hochstein.

Inflationary Factors

Geopolitics Remains One Element Watched Closely by International Asset Management Experts. “Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Risks Continue to Weigh on Market Sentiment on the Doorstep of Earnings Season. Tensions in the Middle East Remain Unresolved. However, Markets Appear Less Sensitive to Events Surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Than They Were at the Start of the Year,” Acknowledges Louise Dudley, Global Equity Portfolio Manager at Federated Hermes.

According to Sebastian Paris Horvitz, Head of Research at LBP AM (Majority Shareholder of LFDE), “The Situation in the Strait of Hormuz Has Worsened,” Warning That “The Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Threatens the Rebound in Economic Activity.” He Also Notes That Reduced Tanker Traffic Has Driven Oil and Gas Prices Up Again, Warning That “A Prolonged Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Would Translate into Much Higher Energy Costs.”

Against This Backdrop, He Notes That “An Adverse Scenario Must Be Considered Once Again,” Explaining That Heightened Risks Will Drag Down Confidence and Economic Growth. “Events in the Middle East Undermine the Idea of a Quick Exit from the Crisis and Make Recent Macroeconomic Data Harder to Interpret. In Fact, Business Surveys Were Beginning to Show Signs of Economic Recovery Right when Hostilities Resumed. In the U.S., June Inflation Figures Were Quite Reassuring, but the Deceleration Trend Could Be Threatened Unless Energy Markets Ease. Headline Year-on-Year Inflation Fell to 3.5%, Down from 4.2% in May,” Horvitz Acknowledges.

The Fed’s Pulse

For Tiffany Wilding, Economist at PIMCO, Recent Statements by Fed Officials Suggest That “Policymakers Are Increasingly Preparing Markets for the Possibility of Renewed Monetary Tightening If Inflation Does Not Moderated as Expected.”

“In a Broader Sense, Fed Communications Have Shifted Recently to Emphasize the Importance of Keeping Inflation Expectations Firmly Anchored in the Face of Supply Shocks. In His Testimony Before Congress, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Reiterated the Central Bank’s Firm Commitment to Restoring Price Stability and Maintained That, Despite a Softer June Inflation Report, the Fed’s Inflation Target Has Not Yet Been Reached,” the Expert Recalls.

Nonetheless, the PIMCO Economist Maintains That “We Still Expect Inflation to Moderate During the Second Half of the Year and for the Fed to Keep Rates Unchanged.” In This Regard, She Reminds That “This Is Not 2022,” as “Labor Markets Are No Longer Generating the Same Degree of Inflationary Pressures, Fiscal Policy Is Far Less Expansionary, and—Crucially for Fixed-Income Investors—Real Yields Are Already Substantially Higher.”

From Julius Baer, Borges Maintains That the Fed’s Decision-Making Structure Will Continue to Limit Kevin Warsh’s Ability to Substantially Alter Monetary Policy. “The Committee Reaffirmed Its Commitment to an Ample-Reserves Framework, While Guidelines from Waller and Williams This Week Demonstrate That the Fed’s Priorities Remain Intact. Given Limited Support Within the Committee for a Drastic Reduction in Transparency or a Structurally Smaller Balance Sheet, We Expect a Warsh-Led Fed to Represent an Evolution from Powell’s Era, Rather Than a Revolution,” He Adds.

Vontobel Appoints Gian Reto Naegeli As Head Of Its Miami Branch

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyGian Reto Naegeli, Head of the Miami branch of Vontobel Swiss Financial Advisers.

Here is the direct English translation of the entire passage:

Vontobel Swiss Financial Advisers (SFA) has appointed Gian Reto Naegeli as head of its Miami office. In this position, he will strengthen the firm’s presence in the region and foster the continued growth of its business in the United States.

Gian Reto brings more than three decades of experience in the financial sector. Prior to joining Vontobel, he held various positions at UBS, where he gained deep experience in international wealth management. He joined SFA in 2017 and became part of Vontobel in August 2022. Since 2024, he has successfully led the SFA Southeast and Central region.

Building on this strong track record, Gian Reto will assume the additional responsibility of leading the Miami office while continuing in his role as head of the Southeast and Central region. His appointment reflects Vontobel’s ambition to further expand its local presence in the United States and leverage his leadership experience directly in one of its key markets.

“We are delighted to appoint Gian Reto to this role,” said Billy Obregon, CEO of Vontobel SFA and Head of the Americas. “He has successfully driven the growth and development of our business in the U.S. Southeast and Central regions, and now we are expanding his mandate to include the local Miami market. Thanks to his deep knowledge of the region, his leadership experience, and his strong client focus, he is ideally positioned to drive the next phase of growth and further strengthen our U.S. business,” Obregon concluded.