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Private Equity Deals in the Healthcare Sector Reached 190 Billion Dollars in 2025

According to the Global Healthcare Private Equity Report 2026, published by Bain & Company, the global value of private equity deals in the healthcare sector reached a new record in 2025, with an estimated 191 billion dollars in transactions, surpassing the previous all-time high recorded in 2021.

The report notes that this increase was driven mainly by a sharp rise in deals exceeding 1 billion dollars, which offset the second-quarter slowdown caused by tariffs in North America and Asia-Pacific. Transaction volume also remained strong, with 445 announced acquisitions, the second-highest figure on record.

At the same time, divestments rebounded sharply to reach 156 billion dollars — the second-highest level in history — compared to 54 billion dollars in 2024, thanks to the return of sponsor-to-sponsor transactions following the post-pandemic lows.

According to Cira Cuberes, partner at Bain & Company, “The private equity market in healthcare delivered record performance last year, with a major increase in large-scale transactions and growth across all segments, led by biopharma and providers, and driven by activity in medtech. We also observed a strong recovery in divestment value following recent lows, signaling the return of exit activity as sponsors restart sales processes for strategic assets. Everything points to a very dynamic 2026, supported by high liquidity levels and a growing number of sponsor-owned assets approaching the end of their investment cycle.”

Sponsor-to-sponsor deals on the rise

The analysis highlights that, following the slowdown seen in 2023 and 2024, sponsor-to-sponsor transactions returned strongly in 2025, reaching record highs in both volume and value. More than 150 transactions are expected, with an estimated value exceeding 120 billion dollars.

Bain & Company also emphasized the increase in average deal size: more than 30 transactions exceeded 1 billion dollars, compared to just eight in 2024. In addition, public-to-private deals and carve-outs continue gaining prominence as alternative opportunities for investors, showing sustained growth since 2023.

Recovery after the second-quarter decline

The report indicates that global growth was sustained thanks to consistent activity in Europe and the recovery of North America and Asia-Pacific after the second-quarter slowdown. Transaction volume increased 39% between the second and third quarters, and the second half of the year closed 7% above the first half.

North America: momentum from large deals

According to the study, the region managed to overcome the second-quarter slowdown thanks to the rise in large-scale transactions. Through November 2025, 26 deals exceeding 1 billion dollars were recorded, compared to 14 during all of 2024, and more than 70% were sponsor-to-sponsor.

Total deal volume grew slightly compared to the previous year, although it remains below the historical peak reached in 2021. In divestments, 2025 closed with an estimated value of 90 billion dollars, well above the 35 billion dollars recorded in 2024.

Europe: biopharma leadership and major transactions

The analysis indicates that in Europe, deal value is expected to double compared to the previous year, reaching approximately 59 billion dollars. The biopharma sector led this growth, accounting for the five largest transactions in the region and representing 65% of total value.

Large-scale deals also returned strongly: around 15 transactions exceeding 1 billion dollars were recorded in 2025, compared to only three in 2023 and four in 2024. Total transaction volume also increased, surpassing the 2024 record and maintaining the upward trend that began in 2022.

Divestments rebounded significantly to approximately 53 billion dollars following the sharp decline of the previous year, driven mainly by large sponsor-to-sponsor transactions.

Asia-Pacific: broad-based strength

The report states that deal value in Asia-Pacific reached a record in 2025, surpassing the 2021 peak by more than 30% despite the second-quarter slowdown. The biopharma and provider segments remain the main drivers of healthcare private equity in the region, although medtech and healthcare IT also posted significant growth.

Japan, India, and Australia-New Zealand showed notable gains compared to 2024, while China doubled its previous year’s performance in both volume and value, although overall activity remains below historical highs.

Biopharma sector: concentration of value

The study notes that transaction value in the biopharma segment increased to around 80 billion dollars in 2025, up from 55 billion dollars in 2024, while volume is expected to grow nearly 20%, surpassing 130 deals. Since 2020, this sector has represented approximately 30% of total deal volume and at least 22% of global transaction value.

Europe led much of this momentum, with transaction volume rising nearly 40% and value increasing 70% compared to 2024. In North America, growth was more moderate: value increased 20%, while volume remained stable.

Providers: growth driven by technology

According to the analysis, transaction value in providers and related services rose 57% to approximately 62 billion dollars, while volume remained stable, reflecting larger deal sizes. Growth was led by healthcare IT and provider services, although investment focused exclusively on providers did not accelerate at the same pace.

Investors concentrated on technology-enabled assets such as analytics, workforce optimization, and platform solutions. Within this segment, healthcare IT deal value doubled in 2025 to an estimated 32 billion dollars.

Medtech: momentum in the post-Covid era

The report highlights that transaction value in medtech nearly doubled compared to the previous year, reaching approximately 33 billion dollars, while volume increased nearly 20% to around 88 transactions. The sector is gaining traction as investors identify opportunities to apply proven value-creation strategies focused on revenue growth, margin expansion, and multiple expansion while managing downside risks.

Three key trends for 2026

The analysis points out that healthcare technology has maintained an upward trend in both volume and value since 2023, reflecting sustained investor interest. Those focusing on specific value-creation levers — such as developing comprehensive pricing and packaging strategies or pursuing large-scale mergers and acquisitions to build synergistic platforms — will be better positioned to differentiate their offerings and achieve stronger exits in an environment of high valuations and intense competition.

In the pharmaceutical services market, despite historically being an attractive and large segment, recent challenges have led some investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Others have opted for a selective approach, prioritizing premium assets with strong operational improvement potential and business models more resilient to market volatility.

Meanwhile, although activity remains below peak levels from several years ago, interest in physician groups persists among U.S. investors. Leading platforms are differentiating themselves by moving beyond the traditional buy-and-build model toward integrated, clinician-focused approaches that improve quality of care. Those investing in next-generation models based on attractive trends such as pharmaceutical exposure or value-based care are expected to find compelling opportunities.

“We are optimistic about the evolution of the healthcare private equity market this year, especially because investor confidence in the market’s fundamentals has remained strong despite the difficulties experienced last spring. The strength of public-to-private deals and carve-outs, together with the return of sponsor-to-sponsor transactions, reinforces expectations of intense activity. Looking ahead, investors will need to clearly define their value-creation strategies to achieve standout returns in an environment where competition for assets remains extremely high,” concluded Cira Cuberes, partner at Bain & Company.

The Waltons and the Art of Preserving What Was Built

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

In 1953, Sam Walton, best known for founding the world’s largest retail chain, did something that at the time almost no one noticed: he created Walton Enterprises and transferred 20% of the shares into a trust for each of his five children, keeping the remaining 20% for himself and his wife. He was not yet a successful businessman. But Sam was already thinking about how to protect what he was going to build.

That is estate planning. Not the outcome, but the early decision. The structure put in place before the wealth appears, on the surface, to justify the cost of creating it.

Today, the Waltons are one of the wealthiest families in the United States, with a fortune exceeding 200 billion dollars. And the relevant question is not how they got there, but why they are still there, four generations later, without the wealth having fragmented, diluted, or evaporated.

The answer has a name and surname. Or rather, several instruments with technical names.

The first is the irrevocable dynasty trust. Unlike a conventional trust, a dynasty trust is designed to last for decades without the assets becoming subject to estate taxes at each generational transfer. The Waltons used it, and the structure is so solid that, according to Bloomberg, none of the multiple divorces among Walton heirs managed to extract a single share from the trust.
The second instrument is the Charitable Lead Annuity Trust, or “CLAT” — also known as the “Jackie O. Trust” because of its pioneering use in the estate planning of the Kennedy family. The donor transfers assets into an irrevocable trust that, for a defined period, pays a fixed annuity to one or more charitable organizations chosen by the donor. At the end of the term, the remaining assets — plus all the appreciation accumulated during that period — are transferred to the heirs. The donor loses control over the assets from the moment they are contributed, but in return receives a tax deduction for the charitable contribution and allows a significant portion of the estate to pass to the next generation with a substantially reduced tax burden. The efficiency of the instrument depends largely on benchmark interest rates: the lower the rates, the greater the arbitrage opportunity. In the CLAT established by the Waltons in 2003, Bloomberg estimated that more than 2 billion dollars would pass to heirs tax-free. Two billion dollars. Tax-free. Legally.
The third instrument is what is now known in the estate planning world as the “Walton GRAT.” Through a Grantor Retained Annuity Trust, the grantor transfers assets — typically shares with high appreciation potential — into an irrevocable trust. For a defined period, the trust pays the grantor a fixed annuity. At maturity, if the grantor is still alive, the remaining assets — that is, all appreciation above the interest rate set by the IRS, known as the hurdle rate — are transferred to the beneficiaries without tax cost.

It is, essentially, an estate freeze: the original owner transfers the future appreciation of the asset without using up the lifetime gift tax exemption.

If the asset appreciates above the hurdle rate, the heirs receive that difference tax-free. If it does not, the assets return to the grantor. The only real risk is mortality: if the grantor dies during the GRAT term, the assets are reincorporated into the taxable estate, neutralizing the benefit.

In 1998, the Waltons refined this structure with very short-term GRATs — sometimes lasting just two years — designed to capture appreciation in Walmart shares during specific growth windows. The mechanism proved so efficient that the IRS spent years trying to block it. In 2000, Congress partially closed the loophole. But the Waltons had already passed through it, and the technique bearing their name remains today one of the most replicated instruments among ultra-high-net-worth families around the world.

4. The fourth element is Walton Enterprises, the single family office that manages the entire ecosystem. Based in Bentonville, Arkansas, it oversees more than 200 billion dollars in assets, coordinates the network of trusts and holdings, and functions as the backbone of family governance.

It is not a bank. It does not sell products. It has no conflicts of interest. It exists for one reason only: to ensure that Walton wealth remains Walton wealth.

What can be learned from all this?

Estate planning is not for when you are already wealthy. Sam Walton built his structure when Walmart was still a regional discount chain. The early decision is what makes the difference, because the most powerful instruments — the dynasty trust, the GRAT, the CLAT — require time to work. They are not last-minute solutions.
Trusts are not for hiding assets. They are for protecting them. From creditors, yes. From taxation as well — within what the law allows. But above all, from the inevitable fragmentation that occurs when a family grows and wealth lacks structure. The Waltons have dozens of heirs. Without Walton Enterprises and the trusts, the company’s capital today would likely be dispersed among hundreds of cousins who do not know each other. With the structure, it remains a company controlled by a family with a long-term vision.
Governance matters as much as the instruments. Trusts are the container. The rules about who decides, how benefits are distributed, who can be a trustee and who cannot, what happens in the event of conflict — that is the content. And it is what determines whether the structure endures or collapses at the first family crisis.
The same logic applies in any jurisdiction. The dynasty trust has equivalents in the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Liechtenstein, and New Zealand. The CLAT and GRAT have variants across multiple civil law systems. Technical creativity is not limited to a single legal system. It is limited, instead, by a lack of planning.

The story of the Waltons is not the story of a family that found a shortcut. It is the story of a family that made structural decisions while it was still early, surrounded itself with the right advisors, and maintained the discipline to preserve the architecture over time.

What to Expect From the Change at the Fed: Four Views on a Warsh Presidency

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

The U.S. Federal Reserve begins a new chapter this week with the arrival of Kevin Warsh as chairman of the central bank, bringing Jerome Powell’s eight years at the helm to an end. Powell will remain a member of the Board of Governors until January 2028, a decision that could influence the institution’s internal dynamics over the coming months.

This new phase comes at a delicate moment for the U.S. economy. Inflation remains elevated, while geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East create the perfect backdrop for questions about when the next rate-cutting cycle will begin. In this context, several international asset managers agree that Warsh will bring his own style to the Fed, although views differ regarding the implications for monetary policy and markets.

More room for rate cuts

At Neuberger Berman, analysts believe the market remains focused on the central bank’s hawkish tone and is not clearly seeing the possibility of further rate cuts. The key idea is that Warsh views balance sheet policy and interest rate policy as complementary, meaning both tools can act simultaneously and gradual balance sheet reduction could occur alongside cuts to short-term rates rather than one happening at the expense of the other.

The asset manager’s hypothesis is that “the FOMC will remain in an easing cycle, with additional cuts bringing the policy rate to between 2.75% and 3.25% — broadly in line with the Fed’s own estimate of the neutral rate. In fact, market expectations of one or no cuts this year appear too conservative. Risks lean toward elevated inflation and delayed cuts, but the direction of travel is clear,” said Ashok Bhatia, CIO and Global Head of Fixed Income at Neuberger Berman.

For Vontobel, the main change will be in leadership style. “Warsh has openly expressed his desire to move away from the traditional consensus-based approach toward a more debate-oriented model,” said Michaela Huber, Senior Cross-Asset Strategist at the firm. The institution also emphasized that “Warsh made it clear he is a firm critic of forward guidance, arguing that it boxed the Fed into predetermined paths and reduced its ability to respond to real-time data. This approach could lead to a more dynamic (and perhaps unpredictable) Fed.” Warsh has also expressed confidence that advances in artificial intelligence could boost productivity and help contain inflation, creating room for lower rates.

“Warsh prefers trimmed mean or trimmed median inflation as the gauge to guide monetary policy. This could result in lower perceived price pressures than the indicator currently used by the Federal Reserve,” said Mickael Benhaim, Head of Fixed Income Strategy at Pictet Asset Management. This suggests interest rates could be lower under Warsh. “Currently, the trimmed mean inflation reading is 2.3%, more than 0.5% below the PCE indicator and the widest gap since the pandemic,” the expert noted.

The new Fed chairman has made it clear that he believes the current seven trillion dollars in government bond holdings are too large and has not hidden his intention to reduce them. “Over time, his preference for a smaller balance sheet, together with liquidity rules that encourage banks to hold more Treasury bills and fewer reserves, could create structurally higher term premiums on long-term debt and force private investors to hold fixed income with lower sensitivity to interest-rate changes,” the fixed-income strategist added.

Language and risks

At PIMCO, analysts believe the leadership change will affect the Federal Reserve’s language more than its decisions on rates. “Even so, we continue to expect that the next move will ultimately be a cut, and we still place the neutral interest rate at around 3%. However, the timing is uncertain. If the conflict with Iran and the energy shock prove more persistent, it could take longer for core inflation to moderate more clearly toward the Fed’s target, complicating the decision to ease monetary policy,” explained Tiffany Wilding, economist at PIMCO.

Finally, for eToro, a Fed led by Warsh will not necessarily imply more restrictive monetary policy, but it will represent a significant shift in how markets price risk. “A Federal Reserve under Warsh’s leadership would likely rely less on balance sheet expansion and signaling every move, and more on market valuation, private capital, and economic fundamentals. This points to a gradual transition toward a smaller and shorter-duration Fed balance sheet, with private banks playing a greater role in absorbing liquidity and government debt,” said Lale Akoner, Global Market Analyst at eToro.

This means that “short-term bonds could benefit from potential cuts once the energy crisis passes, while long-term bonds could see less upside potential if concerns about inflation and public debt keep yields elevated,” analysts at the firm explained. Financial companies, banks, and asset managers could therefore benefit, while highly leveraged and speculative growth companies may face more demanding market conditions.

Major Asset Managers Step on the Risk Accelerator

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Risk appetite has returned forcefully to global markets. The May Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS), conducted by Bank of America, shows a significant shift in institutional investor positioning, with fund managers increasing their allocation to equities at a record pace while reducing cash levels and deepening exposure to cyclical and technology sectors.

The move reflects a meaningful change in managers’ macroeconomic outlook, supported by more favorable expectations for corporate growth and a less restrictive monetary environment in the United States.

According to the survey, cash levels in portfolios fell from 4.3% to 3.9%, one of the sharpest declines in recent months, while BofA’s Bull & Bear indicator rose to 7.8 points, approaching levels historically associated with market overheating signals.

Optimism regarding corporate earnings is one of the main drivers behind the move. The report identifies a record jump in the number of managers expecting double-digit earnings-per-share (EPS) growth, in an environment where fears of a severe slowdown appear to be fading rapidly. Only 4% of respondents now anticipate a “hard landing” for the global economy.

Expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also driving the repositioning. Only 16% of participants expect rate hikes through 2026, although concerns remain that the Fed could fall “behind the curve” on inflation. In fact, 40% of managers identify inflation precisely as the main tail risk for markets.

That concern is reflected particularly in the fixed-income market. Sixty-two percent of respondents expect the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond to reach 6%, compared to only 20% who foresee levels closer to 4%. This view helps explain why investors maintain one of the largest underweights in bonds since 2022.

Sector positioning also shows clear signs of concentration. Seventy-three percent of participants consider being long global semiconductors to be currently the most crowded trade in the market, amid continued enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence and the expansion of technology infrastructure linked to hyperscalers and data centers.

Paradoxically, those same technology segments are beginning to be perceived as potential sources of financial vulnerability. Thirty-four percent of managers identify AI hyperscalers as possible triggers of a significant credit event, second only to shadow banking, which tops the list at 42%.

The survey also reveals one of the most aggressive positions in cyclical assets since 2018. Managers show the largest overweight in technology since February 2024 and the fourth-highest historical exposure to commodities. By contrast, defensive sectors and consumer discretionary lag behind within global preferences.

Geographically, the survey also highlights the first underweight position in Eurozone assets since December 2024, while emerging markets continue benefiting from renewed flows into risk assets.

Despite the dominant optimism, the report itself warns about signs of complacency. From a contrarian perspective, strategists suggest that some investors may begin taking profits on long positions in equities, technology, commodities, and emerging markets, particularly if bond yields continue climbing.

The underlying message for markets is clear: Wall Street has returned to “risk-on” mode, but the sustainability of the rally will depend less on the growth narrative and more on the future path of inflation and long-term rates in the United States.

WisdomTree Launches an Investment Fund Focused on AI, Humanoids, and Drones

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

WisdomTree has announced the launch of the WisdomTree Physical AI, Humanoids, and Drones Fund (WDRN), which will trade on the Cboe BZX Exchange, Inc. (CBOE). The launch comes at a pivotal moment for artificial intelligence (AI), as the technology evolves beyond digital applications to enable physical AI activities, according to the firm’s statement, powering machines capable of perceiving, making decisions, and autonomously executing tasks in the physical world.

This shift marks a transition from AI as a tool for generating information to a system capable of producing real-world outcomes.

WDRN is designed to replicate the price performance and yield, before fees and expenses, of the WisdomTree Physical AI, Humanoids, and Drones Index. The index is intended to provide exposure to companies worldwide engaged in activities related to physical AI, including humanoid and collaborative robots, drones and autonomous vehicles, AI-based manufacturing systems, warehouse and supply chain automation, and intelligent machines in sectors such as healthcare, construction, agriculture, and defense.

“In recent years, AI has largely been confined to the digital world, generating content, analyzing data, and assisting with decision-making. What is changing now is that AI is beginning to operate in the physical world as advances in models, computing, and robotics converge. We believe this represents a significant inflection point in the trajectory of AI,” said Christopher Gannatti, Global Head of Research at WisdomTree.

The executive added that this shift is already taking shape in autonomous vehicles, next-generation factories, and the increasingly important role of drones in modern conflicts. “As capital flows accelerate toward semiconductors, automation, and industrial infrastructure, we believe physical AI is emerging as a major new investment cycle with the potential to reshape how intelligence is deployed across the global economy, and WDRN is designed to provide investors with exposure to companies positioned at the intersection of this evolving segment of the AI ecosystem,” he noted.

Insigneo Appoints Eduardo Solano as Senior Vice President of International Markets

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyEduardo Solano, Senior Vice President of International Markets.

Insigneo, a leading international wealth management firm, has announced the addition of Eduardo Solano to its growing network of investment professionals as Senior Vice President, International Markets, based in the Houston area.

With more than 34 years of experience as a portfolio manager, analyst, and financial trader, Solano brings a strong track record in designing global investment strategies and advising international clients, further strengthening the firm’s value proposition in one of its key growth markets.

Before joining Insigneo, Solano was part of GEF Financial Group, a transition office registered under Bolton Global Capital, where he specialized in building diversified portfolios for private clients, including investments in equities, mutual funds, fixed income, and alternative assets, tailored to different investor profiles and wealth objectives.

“We are delighted to welcome Eduardo to our team in Houston,” said Alfredo J. Maldonado, Managing Director & Market Head for New York and the Northeast Region. “His close connection with the Latin American community and his ability to translate complex economic trends into practical investment strategies make him a key addition as we continue expanding our international wealth management offering.”

Before relocating to the United States, Solano developed a significant part of his career at The Mexico Fund, Inc. (NYSE: MXF) and its management company, where he worked for 24 years. There, he served as Vice President of Investor Relations, representing the fund at major financial forums in New York, while also actively participating in portfolio management decisions and trade execution.

Solano holds a degree in Economics from the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) and completed the AD Business Program at IPADE Business School, education that complements his extensive professional experience in international markets and wealth advisory.

His addition strengthens Insigneo’s growing network of investment professionals and reflects the firm’s ongoing commitment to expanding its international wealth management platform in Texas, consolidating its presence among international clients and enhancing its ability to offer sophisticated and personalized investment solutions.

Brazil Becomes the Main Hub for Global Investment Attraction in 2026

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyCaio Megale, Chief Economist at XP Investimentos

It cannot be described as a perfect scenario, as numerous challenges still exist within the Brazilian economy. However, several global and domestic factors have aligned during the first half of 2026 to make the Brazilian market the world’s leading destination for foreign investment, according to the analysis of Caio Megale, Chief Economist at XP Investimentos.

During his participation in a panel at the 15th Investment Seminar for EFPCs, organized by Abrapp (Brazilian Association of Closed Supplementary Pension Entities), the economist explained that the country has successfully weathered the crises stemming from the “tariff shock” and has benefited from the global rise in oil prices.

“Brazil has become a major magnet for global investment. Investors perceive that the country emerged well from the tariff crisis, gained market share relative to China, and maintained its position in the United States,” said Megale. According to him, January and February saw the largest inflow of international capital in the recent history of the domestic market. “Markets soared during those two months,” he stated.

In March, war came to dominate the global financial agenda and oil prices surged. The economist from XP recalled that at the beginning of the year, the asset manager viewed a drop in oil prices as one of the main risks for Brazil, since it could have reduced fiscal revenues and exports. However, the scenario evolved in the opposite direction.

With the start of the conflict, oil surpassed 100 dollars per barrel and has remained at those levels. Although a short war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were initially expected, that did not happen. In this context, Brazil is seen as a relative winner. Since the discovery of the pre-salt reserves, oil has gained significant weight in the country’s trade balance and fiscal revenues.

“The impact of rising oil prices on most countries is usually negative for GDP. Only in Brazil and Russia does it tend to boost it. In relative terms, Brazil is well positioned. The trade balance is accelerating its surplus, fiscal revenues have increased, and the government is trying to use those resources to soften the effects of the domestic crisis,” Megale analyzed. He added that domestic markets continue to perform well, although not with the same intensity as during the first two months of the year, with particularly strong performances in equities and foreign exchange.

Brazilian real sees strong appreciation

Under the current outlook, especially from the perspective of foreign investors, Brazil is perceived as a winner. “Brazilian markets are performing well, for example equities and the exchange rate,” Megale pointed out. “If you ask me whether the dollar looks more likely to trade at 4.50 reais or 5.50, I would choose the first option,” he added.

The economist recalled that last year the dollar weakened globally and the real benefited from that trend. However, this year the dollar is strengthening worldwide and, even so, the real continues to appreciate against other currencies. As a result, in 2026 the real would be experiencing a “double” appreciation.

Record foreign capital inflows and market outlook

Roberto Belchior, partner at Tarpon, who also participated in the seminar, noted that a year ago few could have anticipated the sharp rebound of the Ibovespa beginning in the second half of 2025. This rally was mainly driven by the massive inflow of foreign capital — around 200 billion reais in recent months — while domestic institutional investors moved in the opposite direction, with withdrawals close to 100 billion reais since 2024.

The asset manager agrees that Brazil could become one of the main long-term structural winners in global markets. He even foresees a new bull cycle for Brazilian equities similar to the one experienced between 2002 and 2008. Since the largest gains have been concentrated in the most liquid stocks, Belchior is now betting on the potential of small caps, which are underperforming the Ibovespa by around 20%.

Domestic challenges: inflation and interest rates

To improve the economic outlook, the Selic rate would need to begin falling, especially in real terms. However, according to Megale, inflationary pressures persist due to oil prices, food prices — with the possible emergence of El Niño in the second half of the year, which could affect supply — and a demand shock driven by government policies aimed at increasing consumers’ disposable income.

All of this complicates the central bank’s task. “It still makes sense to cut the Selic because rates are very high, but the Central Bank will have to do so more gradually,” he summarized.

Inflationary pressure is global. Central banks have reversed the trend of rate cuts, sovereign bond yields have risen in developed economies, and this movement has also impacted emerging markets. Yield curves have steepened across all markets, including Brazil.

Elections and risk perception

At the beginning of the year, XP Investimentos projected a dollar exchange rate of around 5.60 reais, incorporating electoral risk. However, that view has changed. “The flow into Brazil is so strong that there is now a perception that the elections will not be as decisive,” Megale explained.

According to his analysis, both President Lula and a possible alternative represented by Flávio Bolsonaro are relatively familiar scenarios for investors, reducing uncertainty. “Economic factors appear to carry more weight in global appetite for Brazil,” he added.

XP’s political analyst, Paulo Gama, expects a very close electoral race. He highlighted that Flávio Bolsonaro has reduced his rejection levels and is trying to position himself as a more moderate option, while Lula’s government seeks to strengthen support through economic and fiscal measures.

Beyond the electoral cycle, both analysts agree that the main challenge will be the growth of public spending beginning in 2027, regardless of who governs. For Megale, that year will be marked by fiscal adjustment with a negative impact on economic growth. In this context, the Central Bank would maintain interest rates at elevated levels, around 13.5%-14% in the short term. Only from the second half of 2026 — or more likely in 2027 — could a clearer cycle of rate cuts begin, depending on the evolution of inflation and fiscal adjustment.

Innovation and Growth: The Drivers of Luxembourg as a European Investment Hub

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Luxembourg consolidated its position in 2025 as Europe’s leading fund domicile, with assets under management reaching 8.3 trillion euros, driven by the continued growth of alternative assets, ETFs, and sustainable finance. The industry association ALFI advanced the Savings and Investments Union agenda through the publication of its “SIU Blueprint” and the study “Europe’s Productive Capital Gap,” carried out together with McGill University.

ALFI’s annual report also highlights how fund tokenization has moved from the experimental phase into a scaling stage, supported by the development of distributed ledger technology (DLT), Luxembourg’s Blockchain IV Law, and growing market adoption. At the same time, ETFs continued gaining momentum, surpassing 500 billion euros in assets, while artificial intelligence is progressively being incorporated into multiple industry processes to improve operational efficiency and client experience. The regulatory framework also continued evolving, with particular attention on AIFMD II, liquidity management tools, valuation, AML/CFT regulation, the creation of AMLA, as well as developments related to EMIR, CSDR, T+1, the Retail Investment Strategy, DORA, and SFDR.

ALFI also strengthened its collaborative approach with the launch of the Member Collaboration Hub, a digital platform integrating industry content, collaborative workspaces, and the AI-based assistant ALFIBot. During 2025, the association organized 49 events across eight countries, with more than 12,000 registered participants, and promoted new initiatives such as Digifund, the Leadership Seminar, and the Conducting Officers Seminar. Talent development remained a strategic priority, with support for two specialized master’s programs in advanced financial management and private assets.

According to Serge Weyland, CEO of ALFI, tokenization and artificial intelligence will be transformative for the industry: “They will profoundly change access to financial products and the structure and distribution of investment funds.”

Along the same lines, Corinne Lamesch, Deputy CEO of ALFI, emphasized that recent reforms strengthen Luxembourg’s competitiveness as a European fund center by adapting its legal and tax framework to new market needs. The report also underscores Europe’s challenge of connecting savings with investment by promoting retail participation and financial education through initiatives such as Personal Investing Day and the joint ALFI/McGill study.

Sustainable finance remains a structural pillar of the sector, with Luxembourg consolidating itself as one of Europe’s leading hubs for sustainable investment in both public and private markets. At the same time, the importance of markets outside Europe continues to grow, with Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East gaining prominence as key destinations for Luxembourg’s fund industry.

According to Britta Borneff, CMO of ALFI, Luxembourg has evolved into a global hub for structuring and channeling international capital. Looking ahead, Jean-Marc Goy, President of ALFI, stated that the goal is to strengthen the country’s global competitiveness through innovation, regulatory excellence, and closer ties with society by expanding access to capital markets and promoting long-term savings.

Markets Take a Front-Row Seat as Peru Chooses President Between Two Opposing Poles

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyPeruvian presidential candidates: Keiko Fujimori (left) and Roberto Sánchez (right) (Source: official candidate websites)

It took time, but it was achieved. Amid a fierce presidential campaign that has even included accusations of electoral fraud in the first round — due to delays in vote counting that postponed the announcement of the second-place finisher — the Peruvian market is now counting down to the runoff election that will determine the country’s next president. On June 7, voters will decide whether it will be Keiko Fujimori, the right-wing candidate, or Roberto Sánchez, the left-wing standard-bearer, who will face the challenge of ending a decade of political instability and completing a full term at the Casa de Pizarro.

“The next political cycle finds Peru in a rather unique situation: relatively stable macroeconomic fundamentals coexisting with weakened political institutions and still fragile governance,” Roberto Montero, head of the Wealth Management Division at Banbif, told Funds Society. This long-standing disconnect, he noted, “is not sustainable for much longer, as it harms the economy’s potential growth.”

While Peruvian assets have been paying attention to the global situation — with its own minefield of tensions — the effects of the runoff have already been felt. The sol, in particular, experienced some volatility linked to Sánchez’s advance to the second round. This comes in a context where, as the political heir of former president Pedro Castillo, he is viewed as a less favorable candidate for the local economy.

“The weakness of the Peruvian sol reflects a specific and well-documented phenomenon of preventive dollarization, which has historically accompanied episodes of political uncertainty in Peru, especially when the electoral outcome calls the economic model into question,” wrote analyst Emanoelle Santos of broker XTB in a recent note.

While the market views Fujimori as an option for continuity of a private investment-oriented economic model, she added, Sánchez’s candidacy raises uncertainty over possible constitutional changes, greater fiscal pressure, and less stability in the Executive Branch. “That difference in risk perception is what the sol is already pricing in weeks ahead of time,” she commented.

If Keiko Fujimori wins

Polls project a highly uncertain outcome, where dissatisfaction with the alternatives and undecided voters are expected to play a significant role. The market’s clear favorite is Fujimori, representative of the right-wing Fuerza Popular party, who is making her fourth attempt at the presidency.

“In a potential government led by Keiko Fujimori, the market would interpret the result as a positive signal for the economy. Expectations would be for a more technocratic economic cabinet, a pro-investment stance, and lower regulatory uncertainty, especially in sectors such as mining, infrastructure, and the financial system,” Montero projected. This scenario would favor the progress of projects and lower risk premiums, supporting private investment and paving the way for GDP growth above 3%.

However, the Banbif executive warned of a persistent political risk that would represent a key challenge for a Fujimori presidency: “the ability to build governance, manage fragmentation in Congress, and reduce high levels of social conflict.”

Among other local assets, the sol would also benefit under this scenario, according to analysts at Credicorp Capital, although the magnitude of the currency’s potential reaction “is highly uncertain.”

If Roberto Sánchez wins

By contrast, Sánchez is a figure who has investors on edge. Reviving memories of the capital outflows triggered by Castillo’s election in 2021, local investors see him as a risk to the business climate in the Andean country.

Among the proposals put forward by the candidate from the left-wing Juntos por el Perú party — and favorite in rural areas — are a Constituent Assembly, a more active role for the State in the economy, and a review of government contracts. “One of Sánchez’s positions that generated the most concern among market participants was his statement several weeks ago that he would not keep Julio Velarde as president of the BCRP (Central Reserve Bank of Peru),” Credicorp emphasized, although he later stated that he supported the institution’s autonomy.

For that reason, expectations are that a victory for this candidate could impact local assets, injecting volatility into markets and requiring a higher risk premium.

That said, Montero assures that it would be “without reaching the extreme seen during 2021.” If Sánchez proves more pragmatic, volatility could moderate; meanwhile, a more interventionist approach would have an impact on assets. “More than the political discourse itself, what will be decisive is the composition of the economic team and the tone of the first decisions,” the executive commented.

A new legislative framework debuts

One factor adding another layer of novelty to this presidential race is the legislative environment in which the incoming government will have to operate. The Andean country has returned to a bicameral system, once again establishing a Senate for the first time since 1992, with its seats determined by this year’s general elections.

This is expected to be an important variable for whoever wins the June 7 election. “On the legislative front, the path forward will depend on the next president’s ability to operate within a still fragmented Congress and an inaugural Senate that will wield significant power,” S&P Global Ratings stated in a recent report.

Along those lines, the rating agency emphasized that Peru’s legislative landscape “appears to be changing”: both the Lower House and the newly reinstated Senate have representatives from six parties. This represents greater concentration compared to the ten parties operating in Congress over the past five years.

Against this backdrop, the market sees little room for radical changes to the Peruvian economy, regardless of who wins. “Our base-case scenario assumes that radical reforms to the economic model will be unlikely under the next government,” analysts at Credicorp Capital indicated. Under the new framework, for example, constitutional reforms will require two-thirds majorities in each chamber over two legislative periods or an absolute majority in both chambers plus a referendum.

In addition, there is the issue of presidential impeachment, one of the driving forces behind the revolving-door politics that has produced eight presidencies over the past ten years. According to the Peruvian investment firm — the largest in the local market — such measures will now require two-thirds majorities in both chambers.

This, combined with the fact that the Senate will be responsible for approving the president of the BCRP, paints a picture of safeguards for the pillars of the economy.

Flow expectations

These elections have reminded more than a few investment professionals of past capital flight episodes. Outflows peaked between 2021 and 2022 during Castillo’s election, when there was marked dollarization of investment portfolios, internationalization of wealth, and a surge in international custody accounts. In just seven months following those elections, 14 billion dollars in capital flight was recorded.

Today, market participants say things are different. “The scenario is different because, in part, most high-net-worth individuals already have the funds they consider necessary in international custody accounts,” Montero commented, while “smaller investors realized that keeping funds abroad is not optimal due to higher costs and tax considerations.”

What does remain persistent in the wealth management sphere is a more defensive positioning among high-net-worth investors, maintaining greater international diversification to manage risks. “A large part of the diversification, dollarization, and international exposure decisions have already been made, with fluid exit channels available in the event of any contingency,” explained the head of Banbif’s private banking division.

S&P Global Ratings agrees with that assessment. “It is interesting that, based on some surveys and conversations with business leaders, there appears to be a more constructive outlook for the economy going forward, shaped by the experience gained amid the high political dysfunction observed over the past decade,” the agency stated in its report.

Stablecoins and Tokenized Real Assets: The New Drivers of the Crypto Market

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

According to experts, there is a unique tension in the crypto market. Evidence of this is the path bitcoin has taken during the first quarter, moving from a weak start to reaching highs not seen since February, climbing to 78,400 dollars. Now, the crypto market is beginning the second quarter in a stabilization phase. Following April’s technical rebound, institutional investor flows appear to have returned, leading to a tactical improvement rather than the start of a new bull cycle.

“In the middle of the month, bitcoin rose to 78,400 dollars last week, reaching its highest level since early February, driven by improved risk appetite following progress between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs also contributed to the rally, with 664 million dollars recorded on Friday, along with a 344 million dollar short squeeze driven by the futures market, which forced the liquidation of bearish positions. From a technical standpoint, bitcoin has broken above the 76,000-dollar resistance level that had capped prices over the past two months, potentially opening the door to further gains if this momentum is sustained,” said Simon Peters, crypto asset analyst at investment and trading platform eToro.

Market entering a consolidation phase

According to Bitwise Asset Management in its quarterly report, the underlying data remains weak: the 10 largest crypto assets declined during the first quarter, with losses ranging between 23% and 38%; crypto’s correlation with equities is at its highest level since the start of COVID; and key metrics such as active addresses, transaction activity, and trading volume remain below their peaks.

This first-quarter performance contrasts with an extraordinary flow of news. “Wall Street is moving toward the onchain environment, regulators are establishing clear rules, and institutions are allocating capital. On the other hand, the underlying data is weak. This disconnect is uncomfortable. Developments are positive, but the underlying data is not. The way to resolve this tension is simple: both perspectives are looking in different directions,” said Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise AM.

Based on this data, the asset manager believes that the first quarter was indeed difficult for crypto investors. “But the news flow is forward-looking and shows there are compelling reasons to believe the underlying data will improve. In fact, if you look closely, some signs of this can already be seen. For example, assets under management in stablecoins are at record highs, tokenized real assets are gaining prominence, and stablecoin transaction activity already exceeds that of Visa,” added Hougan.

Drawing on his experience after eight years working in the crypto world, he described the current moment as “the end phase of bear markets.” “Prices are low and fundamental data is weak, but the smartest people are beginning to build again. There is something underneath that is starting to generate excitement and, if you look closely enough, you can already make out the first outlines of a new bull market,” Hougan concluded.