The luxury resale market in the United States is solidifying its position as one of the most dynamic segments in both retail and e-commerce, driven by the demand for sustainable consumption and technological advances that enhance buyer trust.
According to the Luxury Resale Market Research Report 2025–2030, the global market is projected to grow from $32.47 billion in 2024 to over $50 billion by 2030, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.48% during the forecast period. Leading platforms, such as The RealReal, Vestiaire Collective, Farfetch, Fashionphile, and Rebag, are adopting AI-based tools to verify authenticity and strengthen customer confidence.
In this context, the United States is emerging as one of the most relevant hubs in the luxury resale market. The country represents a significant share of both consumption and digital supply of pre-owned goods, supported by an ecosystem of online platforms that integrate technologies such as AI, augmented reality, and data analytics to improve product authentication and the shopping experience.
Growth in the U.S. is fueled by changing consumer habits, with generations like Millennials and Gen Z prioritizing sustainability, access to premium brands at more affordable prices, and transparency in product verification. This tech-driven approach not only mitigates counterfeiting risks but also positions U.S. platforms as global leaders in an increasingly competitive market.
Moreover, the integration of traditional e-commerce platforms with luxury resale, through strategic partnerships across different segments, is extending reach to consumers who previously did not consider these types of purchases, further establishing the U.S. as a key hub for the global premium resale market.
Resale Platforms and Luxury Brands: Strategic Collaborations
Globally, the luxury resale market is fragmented and includes numerous competitors. Large international platforms coexist with regional and niche players specializing in categories such as watches, handbags, or high-end clothing. The dominance of online platforms lies in leveraging technology to address key consumer concerns, chief among them, authenticity and trust.
Strategic collaborations are also emerging between resale platforms and luxury brands, such as Gucci and Balenciaga, aimed at retaining greater control over pricing and the customer experience, while technologies like augmented reality, blockchain, and data analytics are being integrated to elevate the shopping journey.
In terms of consumer trends, buyers are becoming increasingly selective, showing a growing preference for unique or limited-edition pieces that reflect personal identity and exclusivity.
Although product authenticity remains a challenge, due to the risks posed by counterfeit items that can undermine consumer trust, platforms continue to innovate with technology to strengthen their verification processes.
Photo courtesyChristian Gherardi, Senior Partner & Managing Director of Snowden Lane
With three decades of experience in the financial industry, Christian Gherardi, Senior Partner & Managing Director at Snowden Lane, is optimistic about the future of the offshore business in the United States, specifically from Miami. In a conversation with Funds Society, he anticipates a growing flow of capital from Latin America into the U.S., driven by the search for stability, access to the dollar, and investment opportunities, especially in a context where major banks have reduced their exposure due to regulatory pressures. He also highlights the strategic positioning of the Coral Gables office as one of the firm’s key hubs.
Gherardi, son of an Italian father and Brazilian mother, has built a career marked by persistence and experience gained through various roles and companies within the financial system. “I started working very young, washing cars door to door when I was nine years old,” he recalls. “I kept doing it until I was twelve. I must have washed hundreds of cars, to the point that after I turned twelve, I never washed another car again in my life,” he jokes.
He later joined the family business during college and took his first steps in financial services as an intern at Merrill Lynch, in what was then a rare commodities office in South Florida.
After a brief stint at a remittance company, Uno Remittance, he joined Citigroup, where he spent 19 years. He later moved to Bulltick, an independent firm with Mexican origins operating in the U.S. and Mexico, before joining Snowden Lane, where he has now spent more than two years as a senior partner and leads his international advisory team.
Cultural Ties as a Foundation for Client Relationships Gherardi emphasizes the importance of cultural and emotional connections with clients. “I believe it’s very important to have experience in the markets you’re doing business with,” he says. “My mother is Brazilian, my father is Italian, and my three sisters are first-generation Americans.”
He also notes that, although he was educated in the United States, he never lost touch with his roots. “I have many friends and family across South America, particularly in Peru and a few other places. Based on all of that, I’ve gained a lot of experience. I’ve been exposed to these cultures, the languages, the people. And that makes it much easier to do business in markets where you understand the language, the culture, and the people. All of that is very important,” he explains.
Offshore Business in the U.S.: Setback and Opportunity
From his perspective, the U.S. offshore business has gone through several stages. “It went from practically non-existent, to becoming a major market, and then experienced a sharp decline,” he explains. Over the last decade, stricter regulations, fines, and increased compliance demands led many large institutions to scale back or exit the segment.
However, Gherardi believes this retreat created room for specialized firms. “Many institutions were spooked by the risks of doing things improperly. But that doesn’t eliminate the client’s need,” he says. In this sense, he points out that Snowden Lane is well positioned to meet that demand, with a strong structure and a focus on proper advisory.
A key pillar of that strategy is the Coral Gables office, now one of the largest in the firm globally. “Not just in size, but in terms of strategic location,” he emphasizes. Miami, he adds, is the natural entry point for Latin America into the U.S., due to both geographic proximity and cultural and financial ties.
The diversity of the team is another distinctive element. Coral Gables is home to advisors from multiple nationalities, Brazilians, Italians, Venezuelans, Dominicans, Mexicans, and Koreans, among others. This is complemented by the New York office, which also serves as an important hub within the organization. Gherardi tells Funds Society that he is looking to expand his team.
Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Outlook
“I don’t see any short-term possibility of a major repatriation of funds to South America or Latin America. In fact, I believe more money will flow into the U.S. than will leave for those countries,” he states.
Regarding the impact of the macroeconomic context, he acknowledges it constantly influences investment decisions but stresses the importance of avoiding emotional reactions. “The challenge is understanding where we’ll be in six months or a year. If there are no clear signs of a drastic change, the best approach is usually to stay the course,” he explains, recalling how his clients responded in early 2025 to Donald Trump’s tariff policies and their direct market impact.
Gherardi believes learning is a continuous process. In 2025, he learned most about Japan, as many of his clients inquired about the yen. Looking ahead to 2026, he continues to believe that most high-net-worth clients from Latin America, South America, and abroad have confidence in the U.S. and its economy. He envisions a scenario where “there will continue to be a strong influx of money into the U.S., into U.S. investments, U.S. banks, U.S. brokerage firms, and U.S. family offices.” In his view, interest in fixed income, alternatives, and U.S. equities will remain strong. “I believe all those sectors will continue to see high demand,” he adds.
According to Gherardi, last year there were two products that investors asked about, almost for the first time: artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies. “And they can only really be found here in the U.S.” In his view, “that was a major trend in 2025, and I believe it will remain so in the future. I don’t think that’s going to change in 2026,” he predicts.
The expert also notes that, years ago, no one talked about alternative assets. Today, however, “we see the alternative investment space as very important, as it helps diversify portfolios. It’s critical to diversify any portfolio because diversification reduces risk. But at the same time, you don’t want to diversify so much that you eliminate all risk, because then you don’t make any money either. There’s a fine line between one and the other,” he reflects. “In other words,” he continues, “if you diversify to the point that everything becomes a hedge, you’re essentially flat. You win and lose, win and lose.”
On ETFs, he believes they are “a great opportunity” for clients. “Sometimes, when you invest in managed funds, unfortunately, some of them have very high expense ratios, whereas ETFs have very low expense ratios, and that’s a huge advantage. What’s the point of paying all those fees to professionals who don’t outperform the index?” he asks.
Emotional Discipline and the Value of Advice
Finally, Gherardi underscores the value of professional guidance in times of market volatility. In his experience, clients appreciate having advisors who help them avoid impulsive decisions. “The more emotion is removed from investing, the better the results,” he concludes.
From 2005 to the First Half of 2025, Preqin Has Tracked Nearly 2,000 Global Unicorns, privately held companies backed by venture capital (VC) firms that reached a valuation above $1 billion. The number of unicorns created by venture capital rose from just two in 2005 to more than 500 in 2021, the peak year for this market. In fact, from early 2019 to the end of 2022, more than five companies per week reached a valuation of $1 billion or more. Currently, the number of unicorns recorded since 2005 stands at 1,908.
Much of the global coverage of the unicorn boom has focused on the entrepreneurial stories of the founders of these companies or on the vision and risk appetite of the most renowned venture capital investors. The latest Preqin report, “Unicorns: The Private Capital Take,” analyzes private equity data and the ecosystem in which unicorn companies are born, grow, develop, and go to market.
For example, the number of venture capital funds closed in 2024, the last full year with available data, was the lowest since 2015. In addition, the total capital raised, amounting to $122.5 billion, was also the lowest since that year. Both venture capital deal volume and total deal value have been declining since 2021. Moreover, the exit market is practically closed for VC-backed companies, though there are signs of improvement. Likewise, dry powder began to decline in 2024, in line with a slight uptick in the number of new unicorns created.
Sola Akinola, Managing Director at Preqin, states in the report that the era of “easy unicorn creation” is over. In a context of delayed exits by VC funds, down rounds, and more difficult liquidity, investors “can no longer rely on headlines alone.” According to the expert, what now matters is “clarity: distinguishing lasting companies from those inflated by the era of 0% interest rates.” To do this, she says, “reliable, documented information is needed to track these companies beyond the $1 billion threshold, through secondary deals, continuation funds, and real-world outcomes.” Ultimately, she concludes that in a market defined by uncertainty, “the edge lies in connecting the dots faster and more transparently than anyone else.”
X-Ray of the Unicorn Market
The global landscape of unicorn creation since 2005 has been dominated by the United States. More than half of all companies that reach a valuation of over $1 billion fly the American flag: the United States has accounted for 1,020 unicorns over the past 20 years. However, two fast-growing economies are following close behind: China already counts 252 companies with valuations above $1 billion, and India, 152. Europe, for its part, has a total of 539 unicorns.
One theory circulating in the markets about the reasons for this trend is that the brilliance of U.S. unicorn companies is not the key factor in their success. The Preqin report includes remarks by Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, at a New York Times event, where he stated that the United States has a better “venture capital system.” In his view, the availability of $15 million in seed capital for opportunities with just a 10% chance of success in the U.S. sets it apart from Europe, where many financial features, such as the banking system, are otherwise comparable.
Deal data collected by Preqin from 2005 to the first half of 2025 shows 29,890 early-stage deals in the U.S., worth $81 billion, compared to 14,943 deals worth $31 billion in all of Europe during the same period. Additionally, it takes less capital in the U.S. to reach unicorn status: $158 million compared to $198 million in Europe. It also takes less time, an average of 60.9 months in the U.S. versus 65.2 months in Europe. However, reaching a $1 billion valuation involves nearly the same number of funding rounds in both regions: an average of 5.3 in the U.S. and 5.4 in Europe.
In Asia, according to the report, reaching unicorn status requires raising an average of $243 million across 4.8 funding rounds over an average period of 45.7 months. Globally, the average to become a unicorn is $182 million and 59.4 months from the first funding round.
The report reveals that Information Technology (IT) accounts for more than half of all unicorns created since 2005. Healthcare and Financial & Insurance Services follow, though at a much lower volume. It also shows that secondary share sales, IPOs, and trade sales have been the most common exit routes for unicorns, representing nearly 80% of all exits since 2005. Since 2006, 57 unicorns have been written off, falling from valuations above $1 billion to $0.
The Future Challenges of Unicorns
The venture capital landscape has changed over the past 20 years, and its shape for the next 20 years is beginning to take form. The Preqin report notes that secondary markets can provide liquidity when needed. It also raises the possibility that evergreen funds could replace IPOs as a way to ensure long-term value. Moreover, hybrid managers could emerge, with diverse networks to manage risk across asset classes and “even bridge the gap between public and private investments.”
The study emphasizes that private equity has often found ways to adapt. “The shift toward larger growth-stage investments with direct operational involvement, adapting to fewer IPO opportunities and operating with even longer time horizons, will help strengthen venture capital and improve its ability to smooth returns amid changing interest rates and economic downturns,” the report states.
As venture capital adapts, so too will the instruments most influential to its success. Unicorn companies, once mythical and now plentiful, may increasingly approach the realm of private equity. Continuation funds, often focused solely on growth, are just one way that, according to the report, the cultures and practices of venture capital and private equity are converging.
The first unicorn company in Preqin’s Company Intelligence database was Vonage Holdings, a U.S.-based cloud computing platform, which reached a $1.1 billion valuation in May 2005 after a Series E funding round led by Bain Capital Ventures, 3i, and Institutional Venture Partners.
The most recent unicorn, as of June 2025, is Jumbotail Technologies, a retail platform and B2B food and grocery marketplace based in India, founded in 2015. VC investors in its Series D funding round included Artal Asia Pte. Ltd. and SC Ventures.
Photo courtesyJennifer Whitney, Client Success Manager at Red Oak Compliance Solutions
Jennifer Whitney, an offshore and global distribution industry professional with more than three decades of experience in asset management and financial services, has joined Red Oak Compliance Solutions as Client Success Manager, effective January 5.
Whitney brings extensive experience working with financial advisors at wirehouses, banks, and RIAs serving non-U.S. and cross-border clients. In her role, she will work closely with clients to support adoption of the Red Oak platform, with an emphasis on long-term client relationships, continuity, and trusted partnerships.
Red Oak Compliance Solutions is a compliance ecosystem that connects every stage of content creation, review, distribution, and oversight for the financial services industry, helping firms reduce risk and bring compliant communications to market more efficiently. The company has been recognized on the Inc. 5000 list for seven consecutive years and continues to expand its compliance platform to meet the evolving needs of regulated firms, including the integration of technology tools that streamline advertising review and regulatory oversight.
Whitney stated that her decision to join Red Oak reflects a deliberate move toward long-term infrastructure and relevance within financial services. “After dedicating my career to distribution and business relationship roles, I was looking for a platform that creates lasting solutions for the future of financial services firms,” she said. “Red Oak sits at the intersection of compliance, technology, and marketing, and client success is where I can bring the most value,” she noted.
Based in Austin, Texas, Whitney will work with clients across the United States and internationally, leveraging her experience in supporting advisor workflows, regulatory compliance considerations, and relationship-based service models.
After a 2025 that clearly demonstrated the diverging paths taken by various central banks around the world, all signs point to somewhat more stability in monetary policy in 2026. That said, attention remains on whether the recent arrest of Nicolás Maduro by the United States will have repercussions on oil prices and, consequently, on inflation and the actions of central banks.
Without a doubt, the focus will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve. Its chair, Jerome Powell, reaches the end of his term in April, amid doubts about the future independence of the institution and with a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Lisa Cook, entangled in legal proceedings. “The Fed has many factors at play in 2026. Not only will a new chair take over, but the macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain. The labor market appears to be cooling without collapsing, while inflation remains stable,” notes Bret Kenwell, Market Analyst at eToro in the U.S., who questions whether the U.S. monetary authority “will be able to adopt a dovish tone if these factors persist in 2026, or whether its dual mandate will keep moderate measures in check.”
A similar view is held by Ray Sharma-Ong, Deputy Global Head of Bespoke Multi-Asset Solutions at Aberdeen Investments, who believes that “the Fed is between a rock and a hard place, with inflation remaining high despite a weakening labor market.” This disconnect “has widened the divisions within the Committee.”
That said, following the rate cuts in 2025 and the current context of the institution, “the Fed’s monetary policy is no longer a catalyst for the markets,” according to the expert. The reason is that with federal funds interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%, the Committee considers that monetary policy is within the effective range of neutrality. Therefore, “the bar for new cuts is very high, implying that the monetary policy outlook is likely to remain static for some time.” As a result, with official interest rates on hold, “we no longer expect a broad-based beta rally in equities; market correlations may decrease, and fundamentals may gain greater importance.”
For Paolo Zanghieri, Senior Economist at Generali AM, part of Generali Investments, the economy continues to enjoy a solid foundation, but downside risks to employment remain more important to the FOMC than upside risks to inflation.
Now, following the December rate cut, “it can now wait for more data before deciding on the extent and pace of further rate cuts.” Here, Zanghieri‘s outlook is clear: the projected path for the official interest rate has not changed since September, with two more cuts of 25 basis points, one next year and another in 2027. “Our forecast of another rate cut next year aligns with what the Fed expects, but we believe the easing will stop there,” he notes, admitting that this forecast would only be modified in terms of timing, with a possible delay of the next cut to mid-year.
Europe Nachu Chockalingam, Head of Credit at Federated Hermes, highlights the work done by central banks in recent years to reduce global inflation. From this point, she expects official interest rates to fall, but in general, “to remain slightly above pre-pandemic levels, especially in developed market economies.”
Her view is that the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will continue cutting rates, “but the direction the European Central Bank (ECB) will take, having started to ease policy earlier, is a bit less clear.” Mainly because inflation in the eurozone is nearing the 2% target, “but the outlook remains uncertain due to global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions.”
The expert explains that short-term risks to the interest rate outlook persist, but she believes the situation would have to deteriorate significantly for the ECB to cut rates again in 2026. Some of these downside risks she mentions include any delayed adverse impact from U.S. tariffs, a stronger euro, the impact of Chinese imports, or delays in Germany’s fiscal stimulus. Political unrest in France, within the context of worsening fiscal conditions, is another potential risk, according to Chockalingam.
The Bank of England (BoE) will also generate market attention throughout 2026. David A. Meier, Economist at Julius Baer, expects two rate cuts from the BoE and a wait-and-see approach from Scandinavian monetary authorities. The BoE, the expert recalls, cut rates to 3.75% at its last meeting amid slowing inflation and weak growth but remained cautious about further easing. “We forecast two more cuts in 2026 and maintain a neutral outlook for the pound sterling,” he notes.
Meier also outlines his expectations for the Nordic central banks: Sweden’s Riksbank kept the policy rate at 1.75% at its last meeting, “with outlooks pointing to possible hikes in late 2026, supporting a bullish scenario for the Swedish krona.” Meanwhile, the Norges Bank, keeping rates at 4% due to persistent inflation, “strengthens the Norwegian krone as the highest-yielding G10 currency.”
Japan Regarding Japan, Álvaro Peró, Fixed Income Investment Director at Capital Group, reveals that reflation continues amid positive economic growth and inflation above target. The expert explains that although the election of the new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi—who campaigned on a platform of fiscal stimulus, state investment, and financial repression—has raised market expectations for more flexible policy, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has reiterated the need for further hikes in a context of yen weakness and reflationary pressures.
This view is shared by Homin Lee, Senior Macro Strategist at Lombard Odier. The expert expects interest rates in Japan to continue rising in 2026. “After having shielded Japan from deflation through years of accommodative monetary policy, we expect the BoJ to welcome signs of reflationary success with two interest rate hikes in 2026, the first likely in January,” he notes.
Latin America Forecasts also extend to the largest Latin American economy: Brazil. At DWS, they suggest that the Central Bank of Brazil “appears willing to maintain its aggressive stance” and indicate that structural reforms, following next year’s elections, “could help unlock the country’s potential.”
This is the view of Yi Li-Hantzsche, Emerging Markets Analyst at DWS, who acknowledges that so far, Brazil’s central bank has shown an unwavering commitment to bringing inflation back to target, “despite pressure from the government and the close ties between Governor Galípolo and President Lula.” The expert believes that with a constructive electoral outcome and the prospect of credible reforms, “Brazil could finally unlock lower rates without putting its credibility at risk.”
Wikimedia CommonsNicolás Maduro, President of Venezuela
The oil boom positioned Venezuela as one of the richest countries in the world between the 1950s and 1980s. Today, it resembles a post-war economy. What happened? A combination of factors brought to its knees what was once one of the greatest Latin American powers, leading to the most recent milestone: the capture of the—controversial—Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, by the United States. Now, global and Latin American investors are closely watching the evolution of this story, which features an economy that the financial market sees as “on pause” and that has generated a diaspora of 7.9 million people.
According to figures from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Venezuela once ranked as the fourth nation with the highest GDP per capita in the world, alongside France. The country was nicknamed “Saudi Venezuela” and “The Millionaire of the Americas,” and not without reason. To this day, it holds the largest proven oil reserves on the planet, with around 303 billion barrels of the hydrocarbon, according to OPEC figures updated as of June last year.
Oil wealth, for example, made gasoline in Venezuela still considered the cheapest in the world, thanks to massive government subsidies. It is practically given away, since a liter of gasoline in Venezuela costs 0.097 centimos of a bolívar at current prices—a figure so low that currency converters do not even register it, showing an absolute zero in parity with the U.S. dollar.
However, this oil wealth created a rentier economy, nearly 100% dependent on oil, which collapsed due to two factors that explain the current situation. One is the drop in international oil prices in the 1980s. The other is the rise to power, through democratic means, of Hugo Chávez, who later centralized the economy and dismantled the checks and balances that allowed him to accumulate power and impose a statist economic model.
In this article, we will focus only on the first point.
The collapse of Venezuela
According to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Venezuela’s GDP in 2024 stood at $82 billion, with three consecutive years of growth (8% in 2022, 4.4% in 2023, and 5.3% in 2024). These may seem like very positive figures, but they hide a devastating reality.
The same data show that Venezuela’s GDP in 2012 reached a historic peak of $372 billion. In other words, the most recently known GDP is 78% below the highest in the country’s history. Only European countries and Japan during World War II have seen such a sharp decline in GDP, yet Venezuela did not experience even an internal armed conflict during this period, despite its political instability.
IMF economists warned that, when measured between 2013 and 2020, Venezuela’s GDP fell by 88%, surpassing by three years the duration of the U.S. collapse during the Great Depression. There is no similar precedent.
And while the country was “swimming” in cheap gasoline, hyperinflation took a massive toll that contributed to the current devastation.
In 2018, hyperinflation reached a historic figure of 130,000%, which moderated to “only” 548% in 2024 and may have dropped to just over 300% last year, thanks to orthodox “neoliberal” monetary policies such as reducing public spending and lifting currency controls, along with a de facto dollarization.
However, the damage is done. A decade of ongoing hyperinflation (from 2014 to 2024) led to the most dramatic erosion of purchasing power ever seen in modern times. IMF figures indicate that between 1998 and 2018, the Venezuelan currency lost 99.999997% of its value.
But perhaps the economic collapse could have been avoided or mitigated if the country, with its immense oil wealth, had properly managed that bonanza. The problem, many voices from the economic front argue, is that statist public policies turned the Venezuelan oil industry into one of the most inefficient in the world.
The Erosion of Oil Production OPEC data show that between 2008 and 2013, Venezuela’s oil production averaged 2.8 million barrels per day, before collapsing to 337,000 barrels in 2020 and recovering to 921,000 in 2024. Even so, the most recently known annual figure is still 67% lower than during the period when the country was considered one of the world’s top oil producers.
Venezuela’s oil paradox is dramatic. Despite being the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, it ranks between 20th and 22nd among oil-producing nations. This is due to investment in the industry collapsing by more than 80% starting in 2003—one year after the attempted coup against President Hugo Chávez, who in response purged the top ranks of the state oil company PDVSA and virtually shut the industry off to new investment. The argument was that the country’s oil wealth required nothing more than state regulation.
In conclusion, Venezuela’s economic collapse is now the most dramatic for any country in modern history without a war.
Analyses indicate that the maximum 88% decline in Venezuela’s GDP surpasses the U.S. collapse during the Great Depression, the shock of World War II, and even exceeds the 70% economic collapse experienced by Syria during its civil war in the last century and the 62% GDP drop in that Middle Eastern country during its more recent internal conflict.
According to economists who have studied this phenomenon, there are three main causes that explain it all—unfortunately tied to political decisions: the destruction of property rights, resource plundering, and destructive economic policies even during times of economic boom.
And the worst part is that the solution for this country, despite its oil wealth, is not just around the corner. Recovery—with the right economic policies—is estimated to take about 20 to 30 years, especially considering that in the last five years Venezuela lost its greatest wealth, and that of any country: 25% of its population.
In Its Own World, Yet Within the Region After more than a decade of economic crisis, Venezuela is relatively isolated from other Latin American countries, living its own reality with its own market distortions. But the country that was once one of the region’s main powers does not go unnoticed.
Just a few months ago, one advantage market players saw for Latin American investments was a relative geopolitical calm that other regions couldn’t boast. With the situation evolving, it is difficult to know what direction the oil-producing country will take and what implications it may have on the global—and Latin American—stage, especially if tensions escalate with China and Russia, two major allies of the Chavista regime. In any case, investors will be watching developments closely.
The economic connections of neighboring countries with Venezuela have diminished over the years, and there is a perception that it is a market “on pause,” both in terms of foreign investment and international trade. However, the country maintains commercial ties with several of the region’s major economies.
Figures from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) show that the country’s main partners in the region are Brazil and Colombia. In recent years—the latest data from the organization is from 2023—Brazil ranked as the fourth-largest buyer of Venezuelan exports (after the U.S., China, and Spain) and the third-largest seller to that market. Colombia, another neighboring country, ranks second among Latin American countries in both categories, and Ecuador is the third-largest buyer of Venezuelan exports in the region. All these markets, however, represent only single-digit shares of Venezuela’s foreign trade.
Unlike the U.S. and Spain, which primarily purchase crude oil, and China, which favors petroleum coke, according to the OEC, the Latin American countries that buy the most Venezuelan products mainly purchase nitrogen-based fertilizers and, in the case of Ecuador, unstuffed frozen fish.
Millions of Expatriates Watching From Abroad Another strong link between Venezuela and the rest of the region is the massive diaspora that has settled in other Latin American countries. Millions have left the country over the past 15 years, fleeing a collapsed economy in search of opportunities in more stable nations in the region, especially neighboring ones. Many of these individuals leave to find work and send remittances back to Venezuela, injecting some capital into struggling local households.
Venezuelan migration, which accelerated after 2014, has expanded across the continent. According to UNHCR, the United Nations refugee agency, around 7.9 million people have left the country in search of opportunities, with 6.7 million settling in other Latin American and Caribbean countries.
The most popular destinations for Venezuelan migrants are Colombia and Peru, with 2.8 million and 1.7 million Venezuelan citizens, respectively, according to data from the Inter-Agency Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants (R4V), an initiative led by UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration (IOM). They are followed by Brazil, with about 626,900 Venezuelans; the U.S., with 545,200; and Chile, with 532,700.
FIBA announces Pablo Vallejo, General Manager at Banco Pichincha – Miami Agency, as its new president.
The organization made the announcement through an official post on its LinkedIn profile.
“With 27 years of experience in the financial services sector, Pablo is an accomplished executive with a strong track record in finance, recognized for his strategic leadership and deep knowledge of the banking industry,” the Financial & International Business Association stated in its social media post.
“His extensive experience, vision, and commitment to excellence will be key in guiding FIBA’s continued growth and expanding its impact within the financial community,” the post continued.
“It is an honor and a privilege to serve as FIBA’s president in 2026, and an even greater responsibility,” Vallejo wrote on his LinkedIn profile. “FIBA’s results in 2025 were outstanding across all areas, marking a year defined by innovation and success. The bar is set very high,” he added.
Vallejo has been serving as General Manager at Banco Pichincha – Miami Agency for nearly five years. Previously, he spent 23 years at Citi, holding various executive roles in Quito (Ecuador), San Juan (Puerto Rico), and Miami.
“As we enter 2026, the challenge is clear and the opportunity even greater. With strong support from the executive team, the Board, and FIBA’s Executive Committee, our focus will be on driving growth, expanding our impact, and continuing to build on a very solid foundation,” Vallejo also expressed in his LinkedIn post.
Credicorp announced that its subsidiary, Banco de Crédito del Perú (BCP), has signed an agreement to acquire 100% of the issued and outstanding shares of Helm Bank USA for $180 million, with the amount subject to the customary closing price adjustment.
“We believe this transaction strengthens Credicorp’s strategy to enhance its cross-border capabilities to serve clients with international operations and reinforces our ability to meet the growing needs of Latin American clients, while preserving Helm Bank’s legacy as a community-focused institution,” the company said in a statement.
As of September 30, 2025, Helm Bank, an entity authorized to operate in the state of Florida (United States), had $1,141.8 million in assets and $106.8 million in equity.
“This acquisition allows us to deepen our ability to serve Latin Americans whose financial lives span both their home countries and the United States,” said Gianfranco Ferrari, CEO of Credicorp.
“We believe Helm Bank’s legacy as a community-focused institution, combined with its expertise in serving international clients, aligns perfectly with our strategy. We look forward to strengthening that role and enhancing its capabilities within our broader ecosystem,” he added.
“Partnering with Credicorp is a natural evolution for Helm Bank,” said Mark Crisp, President and CEO of Helm Bank.
“Credicorp’s financial strength, trusted reputation, and client-centered philosophy provide a solid foundation for our next chapter. Together, we are well-positioned to amplify our impact and deliver greater value to the communities we serve, both in the United States and Latin America.”
The completion and closing of the transaction are subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals in both the United States and Peru.
Credicorp is Peru’s leading financial services holding company, with a presence in Chile, Colombia, Bolivia, Panama, and the United States. Credicorp has a diversified portfolio of businesses, organized into four main lines: Universal Banking, through BCP and Banco de Crédito de Bolivia; Microfinance, through Mibanco in Peru and Colombia; Insurance and Pension Funds, through Grupo Pacífico and Prima AFP; and Investment Management and Advisory, through Credicorp Capital, Wealth Management at BCP, and ASB Bank Corp. Additionally, Credicorp complements its operations through Krealo, its corporate venture capital investment arm.
Banco de Crédito del Perú serves over 18 million clients and has a national network. The bank also operates internationally through its BCP Miami Agency, strengthening its regional presence.
Founded in 1989, Helm Bank USA is a community bank incorporated in the state of Florida, authorized to operate there by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation (OFR). It is supervised by the OFR and is a member of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), which insures its clients’ deposits.
The arrest of Nicolás Maduro by the United States adds a new focal point to global geopolitics. The detention “confirms the idea that there are no zero-probability events: all scenarios become possible once the rules no longer exist,” explains Philippe Waechter, Chief Economist at Ostrum (an affiliate of Natixis IM). According to the expert, the key question now will revolve around Russia and China’s responses, both of which support Maduro. Waechter recalls that the United States and Venezuela have had tension since Hugo Chávez came to power in Venezuela in the late 1990s. Previously, the country was a U.S. “preserve,” specifically through oil and chemical industry exploitation. “As a reflection of this, baseball is the country’s favorite sport, just as it is in the United States,” he notes.
Waechter now emphasizes that the United States under President Donald Trump “wants to get its hands on Venezuelan oil.” While it is low-quality crude, it represents 17.5% of global reserves, “the largest in the world.” For this reason, and given the White House’s strong pro-oil bias, combined with the stagnation of the U.S. shale oil exploration and production industry, “Venezuela is a good alternative,” according to the expert.
In conclusion, Waechter points out that if the United States takes control of Venezuela, “sanctions on oil exports would be lifted and crude production in the country would resume, thereby increasing oil supply in the global market.” This would therefore be a favorable factor for a decline in the price of black gold. However, “the final question is whether, once again, an intervention of this kind will be destabilizing for the region. There is no shortage of examples,” adds the Ostrum expert.
Oil takes center stage
This geopolitical event therefore brings oil back into the spotlight. Energy prices reacted lower in the first relevant session following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro: oil fell by around 1% and natural gas dropped nearly 4%, “a move that draws attention given the geopolitical context, but which the market is reading, for now, as a political event with no immediate physical impact,” explains Diego Albuja, ATFX LATAM market analyst.
The expert adds that the key driver behind price movements in major energy commodities is the fact that no production disruptions or damage to Venezuelan oil infrastructure have been reported. As a result, “without a real supply shock, the geopolitical risk premium quickly fades and prices return to responding to global market fundamentals.” He notes that the market is looking more toward the medium term, potential political changes and normalization scenarios, rather than an immediate impact on crude flows. The sharper drop in natural gas prices is mainly due to factors specific to the U.S. market, such as high storage levels, more benign weather expectations, and technical adjustments in speculative positions, rather than the situation in Venezuela.
“The market is sending a very clear message: as long as there is no real supply disruption, fundamentals prevail. However, this balance is fragile and can change quickly if signs of operational damage, logistical blockages, or abrupt changes in the sanctions regime emerge,” Albuja concludes.
From his perspective, Raphaël Thuin, Head of Capital Markets Strategies at Tikehau Capital, notes that in recent years investors and markets have learned to look beyond recurring geopolitical risks and focus on the fundamental factors that drive long-term market performance. Recent developments in Venezuela “appear to fit this pattern,” as the country’s global economic impact “remains limited, with relatively low exposure for most international companies.”
As a result, the expert considers it likely that long-term market prospects “will not be affected.” He also does not rule out the possibility of positive catalysts. For example, he notes that one of the objectives of the current U.S. administration is to facilitate the flow of more Venezuelan oil to global markets. That said, Thuin acknowledges that geopolitical and regime changes “inevitably introduce new uncertainties,” and therefore concedes that in 2026, as in 2025, “geopolitics will be a factor investors and market performance will need to take into account.”
Other assets: gold and equities
While oil is now in the spotlight, there may be other spillover effects. For example, Ned Naylor-Leyland, Investment Manager for Gold and Silver at Jupiter AM, points out that precious metals, in this environment of market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic uncertainty, once again reinforce their historic role as a store of value, behaving differently from equities and bonds. Gold has already surpassed the $4,400-per-ounce level, rising by around 2% amid the arrest of Nicolás Maduro.
Similarly, Javier Molina, Senior Market Analyst at eToro, says that the situation in Venezuela “adds immediate noise.” While the expert places emphasis on the oil market, he also adds that these types of episodes “tend to result in tactical moves and spikes in volatility, but rarely alter the structural trend of risk assets on their own.” Ultimately, it serves as a reminder that the short term “can be uncomfortable, even within a bullish cycle.”
Currently, Molina stresses that the underlying trend remains upward and that staying invested “continues to make sense, especially in companies with visible earnings and positive momentum.” However, he acknowledges that “this is no longer a market for complacency,” as geopolitics, the fragility of the macroeconomic cycle, and high concentration levels “require heightened risk management, position-size adjustments, and acceptance that volatility is part of the journey.” For now, and ahead of the opening of U.S. equity markets, European stock indices were trading slightly higher by mid-session.
For many experts, there is a strong correlation between Bitcoin and digital assets with global liquidity. According to Yves Bonzon, CIO of Julius Baer, we are facing one of the “most liquidity-sensitive segments in financial markets,” which has led some analysts to interpret the cryptocurrency’s price drop as an early warning of monetary contraction. In his latest analysis, Bonzon raises this debate by posing fundamental questions.
Have investors found the key to measuring liquidity fluctuations in the financial system?
Bonzon points out that recent market dynamics have intensified these questions. He recalls that recently, U.S. stocks experienced a sharp intraday drop after the initial rally triggered by Nvidia’s results was unwound. Although this type of movement is uncommon, he emphasizes that “they are usually followed by strong rebounds.”
In the digital asset space, Bitcoin has entered a marked bearish phase: “It has experienced a sustained downtrend, falling more than 30% from its recent peak.” The price evolution, along with its decoupling from gold, has reopened the debate about its ability to act as a digital equivalent of the precious metal. Bonzon insists that investors must differentiate between short- and long-term correlations, as in the short term the relationship can fluctuate from “significantly positive to significantly negative,” a behavior that intensifies when Bitcoin “trades like a high-beta technology stock” during periods of excessive leverage or deleveraging.
In the long term, however, the CIO asserts that both gold and Bitcoin will tend to move “largely in tandem” as long as Western governments continue to use capital markets for sanctions, an environment that favors “greater structural demand for external assets that hedge against the consequences of such actions.”
Bonzon adds that although Bitcoin and digital assets are among the most sensitive segments to global liquidity, it does not necessarily make the cryptocurrency a reliable leading indicator. He explains that its relatively short history already shows a recognizable pattern: after its halving events, it tends to enter a sustained consolidation phase. Despite this, and in the context of the firm’s Secular Outlook, Julius Baer continues to consider Bitcoin “a viable long-term hedge against fiscal dominance and fiat currency devaluation.”
NVIDIA earnings trigger a rollercoaster in U.S. stock markets
The report contextualizes the recent behavior of traditional markets. U.S. stocks recently suffered an exceptionally volatile session: after a start driven by Nvidia’s results, the S&P 500 “opened more than 1% higher,” only to experience “a massive intraday reversal” and close in negative territory.
The Nasdaq 100 experienced an even more extreme move, with “an unusually wide intraday trading range of more than 4%.” These are very uncommon episodes: “Since 2000, only eight such episodes have occurred,” Bonzon recalls. However, all of them have historically been followed by average rebounds of 16% in the 100 days afterward. Since that session, both benchmark indices have recorded three consecutive days of recovery.
Other indicators also showed signs of stability, such as the NYSE Securities Broker/Dealer Index, which recently rebounded at its 200-day moving average, and the VIX, which, according to the expert, has calmed, trading only slightly above its long-term average of 20.
In fixed income markets, Bonzon notes that the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index, which reflects implied volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, “is behaving well,” staying below 80 points. He also notes that neither nominal nor real U.S. Treasury yields have shown significant movements in recent sessions, while inflation expectations remain stable. A similar stability is observed in the U.S. dollar index, which remains around 100 points, and in gold prices, which continue moving sideways within a range of $4,000 to $4,200 per ounce.
Digital gold or Nasdaq on steroids?
Regarding Bitcoin, Bonzon details that the cryptocurrency “has lost more than 30% of its value from its previous all-time high in early October,” after touching a provisional low of $80,553. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs are heading toward a record month of outflows.
The CIO mentions that in a recent Financial Times opinion piece titled “The Warning Signal from Bitcoin’s Drop,” Katie Martin wrote that the evolution of Bitcoin and digital asset prices in general is becoming an early warning that markets feel unstable, giving investors, especially leveraged ones, an early signal of liquidity contraction.
The divergence between gold and Bitcoin has led some analysts to conclude that the cryptocurrency is not really digital gold. But Bonzon qualifies that statement as potentially premature: gold investors usually operate without leverage, while a large portion of Bitcoin investors, especially retail, do use leverage. This mismatch explains why, in certain periods, “investing in Bitcoin resembles investing in high-beta IT stocks.”
He also warns that the theory of Bitcoin as a leading liquidity indicator has limits: “If Bitcoin became the new U.S. liquidity indicator followed by everyone, the signal would stop working.”
The argument for long-term co-movement between gold and its digital equivalent remains valid
During his recent trip to Singapore and Hong Kong, Bonzon received numerous questions about the crypto market’s future. He notes that despite the asset’s short history, there is “a distinctive pattern” that usually repeats after each halving, marking the start of “a sustained consolidation phase.”
In the long term, Bonzon expects both gold and Bitcoin “to continue rising as long as Western governments keep instrumentalizing their capital markets for sanctions.” This dynamic would extend the structural demand for external assets that protect against geopolitical intervention.
As a tail risk, the CIO warns that a potential peace agreement in Ukraine that includes the unfreezing of Russian assets could trigger a “sudden profit-taking” in off-system assets.
In the coming months, the high correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks is expected to decrease, as it is a phenomenon linked to the current phase of stock market consolidation. Meanwhile, sentiment indicators are “in depressed territory,” and overbought/oversold indicators point to “advanced selling pressure,” leaving room for short-term rebounds.
Structurally, Bonzon states: “Bitcoin should continue to be the original ‘native token,’ the only digital asset capable, in principle, of fulfilling the function of digital gold.” However, he rules out replacing fiat currencies, as it is “embedded in a deflationary monetary system by design and therefore suboptimal as a medium of exchange.”
Nevertheless, Julius Baer maintains its central thesis: “We continue to consider Bitcoin a viable long-term hedge against fiscal dominance and fiat currency devaluation.” The CIO concludes by noting that the next halving is scheduled for mid-2028.
