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Argentina Modifies Its Exchange Rate Scheme: How Far Will It Go?

The Argentine Government Under Javier Milei Begins a New Phase of Its Monetary Program

The Argentine government of Javier Milei this week began a new phase of its monetary program that addresses the main demand of international investors and the IMF: the accumulation of international reserves and, along with it, the modification of the exchange rate bands that keep the market under intervention. How far the change will go is the big question for analysts.

According to Adcap Grupo Financiero, in this new plan, which begins in January 2026, “the only missing piece is the elimination of the capital controls that still remain.”

Starting January 1, 2026, the exchange rate bands that set a ceiling for the dollar and the peso will be adjusted monthly in line with inflation data—an announcement that had an immediate impact on the local market, with a rise in the dollar’s exchange rate. In addition, bonds rose in international markets and country risk fell, a signal of approval from foreign investors.

Avoiding a Run on the Peso and a Sharp Devaluation

The projection of local economists is that by 2026, inflation in Argentina will be between 20% and 25%. The control of the fiscal deficit and income from exports should increase the inflow of dollars into the economy and thus help to raise the reserves of the Central Bank, providing ammunition for the government to support the peso—which it has been doing for two years—against the dollar.

With broad majorities in Congress, President Milei and his government are staying the course: avoiding a devaluation while progressively meeting their commitments to creditors and the IMF.

In their initial analysis, the experts at Banco Mariva are optimistic about the chances that this new plan will not lead to an increase in inflation, but with conditions: maintaining a budget surplus and a restrictive monetary policy.

“First, maintaining a budget surplus. This is because the elimination of deficit monetization and the stabilization of public debt would allow the demand for monetary liabilities to be met through the sale of private sector assets to the central bank, which would facilitate the accumulation of international reserves without inflationary pressures. Second, maintaining a restrictive monetary policy to avoid having to sterilize increases in the monetary base if the growth in money demand is lower than the central bank’s projections.”

The initial analyses show that the new phase of the Milei government’s plan will be a small but gradual change, a gesture toward international investors aimed at buying time.

Projections for International Reserves

Cohen’s first report on the change analyzes the evolution of reserves and their current state: “In the main scenario, the BCRA projects an increase in the monetary base from the current 4.2% to 4.8% of GDP by December 2026, consistent with reserve purchases of up to 10 billion dollars. No less relevant, the daily execution amount will be aligned with a participation of up to 5% of the traded volume, which currently stands at around 400 million dollars per day, to preserve the normal functioning of the market.”

On January 9, 2026, the Treasury will have to make principal and interest payments on Bonares (under Argentine law) and Globales (under foreign law) totaling approximately 4.2 billion dollars. It is estimated that the government’s reserves currently stand at around 1.5 billion dollars. To meet this challenge, the Milei government could resort to a bond-backed loan (REPO) with international banks. It also has in place the currency swap agreement signed with the U.S. Treasury.

Jefferies Adds Alessandro Parise as Wealth Management International Manager

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Jefferies brings on Alessandro Parise as Wealth Management International Manager to oversee its international and cross-border business, according to a post by Parise on the social network LinkedIn.

“I’m excited to share that I have joined Jefferies to oversee the international and cross-border Wealth Management business,” Parise wrote. “I will be in New York and Miami, in addition to traveling throughout Latin America to meet with our clients,” he added.

The professional comes from Mizuho, where he held the position of Managing Director – Emerging Markets Sales LATAM Investors for a year and a half. Previously, he worked for nearly 16 years at Citi, where his last role was Head of Family Office Group – LATAM.

“I look forward to bringing my more than 25 years of experience to Jefferies, where collaboration, innovation, and client-centered thinking are the foundations of the client experience. I’m motivated by the opportunity to work with such a talented team to deliver meaningful impact to clients with a global presence,” the post continues. He also thanked the “colleagues, mentors, and friends” who have supported him along the way.

Parise holds FINRA Series 7, 63, 3, and 24 licenses. He is a graduate of Fundação Getulio Vargas and holds an MBA from Columbia Business School.

The Fall of the Dollar in 2025: What Are the Implications for Investors?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The U.S. dollar is experiencing its weakest year in over a decade. As of September 2025, the dollar index, which measures its value against other major currencies, had fallen by nearly 10%. In other words, the currency declined even further against the euro, Swiss franc, and yen, and dropped 5.6% against major emerging markets. This is according to Morningstar’s 2026 Global Outlook Report, prepared by Hong Cheng, Mike Coop, and Michael Malseed.

According to Morningstar analysts, this weakness stems from a combination of structural and cyclical factors. Among them are fiscal concerns, with sustained debt growth and the impact of the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” as well as reduced confidence in U.S. economic growth relative to other regions. In addition, political uncertainty—which affects perceptions of the Fed’s independence and the country’s trade decisions—has also influenced investor confidence. Changes in global capital flows and increased hedging of dollar-denominated assets have added pressure on the currency.

Despite these declines, experts stress that this does not represent a structural collapse. “The dollar remains the dominant international reserve and settlement currency and retains its appeal as a safe haven in times of stress. In fact, only nine of the 34 major developed and emerging market currencies analyzed are currently more overvalued than the dollar, indicating that it still holds relevant value for investors,” they explain.

For those investing from the U.S., Morningstar recommends taking advantage of this phase to increase exposure to international markets. “This not only allows for portfolio diversification but also offers the possibility of benefiting from the appreciation of other currencies against the dollar. For investors outside the U.S., maintaining exposure to the dollar remains relevant, especially in portfolios with a high weighting in U.S. equities. Currency hedging management can help stabilize returns, although the costs of this strategy vary: they are nearly zero in the United Kingdom, around 4% annually in Japan or Switzerland, and positive in countries with high interest rates, such as South Africa,” the document states.

Finally, the analysts agree that the weakness observed in 2025 marks a turning point in the long cycle of dollar strength, but not its structural decline. For investors, this phase represents an opportunity to strengthen global diversification and consider an increasingly relevant role for other currencies and regions in future returns. The general recommendation is to maintain a balanced approach, combining dollar exposure with international investments, to optimize the risk-return profile of portfolios.

The Market Probes the Scope of Kast’s Resounding Electoral Victory in Chile

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Wikimedia CommonsThe President of Chile, Gabriel Boric (left), and President-Elect José Antonio Kast, at La Moneda Palace.

A New Political Cycle Consolidates in Chile

Or at least that is the impression the financial industry has of the results of the Andean country’s presidential election, which concluded on Sunday, December 14, with the ultra-conservative candidate José Antonio Kast crowned as the next head of state. Now, with assets calm—after months of pricing in a shift in political direction—the market is assessing the challenges and scope of Kast’s future presidency and what effects it could have on the economy.

It was no secret that Kast was the investors’ candidate. Facing the continuity candidacy of Jeannette Jara—former Minister of Labor under Gabriel Boric’s government and a member of the Communist Party—the leader of the Republican Party secured a decisive victory. With over seven million votes, he obtained 58% of the vote, marking a wide margin over Jara.

Although the general view is that this result is positive for Chilean assets, local markets did not experience major movements the day after the presidential election. While the stock exchange opened with a moderate rise, gains were erased throughout the day, and the S&P IPSA benchmark index ended the session down 0.94%. The Chilean peso, meanwhile, strengthened slightly, with the exchange rate climbing about 0.6%, to 915.7 pesos per dollar.

What happened? Market participants agree that prices had already priced in Kast’s victory. The expectation of a government with a pro-market agenda has been one of the drivers of the rally the Chilean stock market has seen this year. The IPSA has risen more than 50% so far in 2025 and closed the final trading session before the runoff election at the unprecedented level of 10,400 points. Meanwhile, the Chilean peso went from 993 pesos per dollar—exceeding 1,000 pesos in early January—at the end of 2024, to 915 pesos at the close of trading on Monday. The view among traders: with the election in the rearview mirror, many took the opportunity to realize gains.

Economic Optimism

Kast’s presidency will begin with the handover of power on March 11 of next year. From then on, the market hopes he will push forward pro-growth policies. Among his promises are the reduction of the corporate tax rate from the current 27% to 23%, an aggressive $6 billion fiscal spending cut plan for the first 18 months of his term, and a reduction in bureaucracy.

According to Principal, the combination of improved confidence and more favorable financial conditions creates space for a “moderately optimistic outlook” for 2026 in Chile. “GDP is projected to grow 2.1%, driven by a recovery in real income and solid mining investment, while non-mining investment remains moderate amid regulatory uncertainty and high labor costs,” the firm stated in a recent report.

Given the wide margin of the president-elect’s victory, notes Mauricio Guzmán, Head of Investment Strategy at SURA Investments, the political landscape becomes clearer. “The market’s focus will shift toward the ability of the eventual administration to implement and deliver on its main campaign promises,” he predicts.

Outside the economic sphere, the priorities outlined during the presidential campaign include crime and organized crime, prison system modernization, and stricter immigration policies.

Kast’s Main Challenges

Looking ahead, the issue of governance—with a Congress in which the ability to negotiate will be key—is top of mind for the financial industry. The issue is that, to paraphrase the musical hit Hamilton: winning is easy, governing is harder.

“His main challenge will be governing with a deeply divided Congress, where his party does not hold a clear majority and will need to negotiate with the center-right faction and use blocking strategies to pass key reforms,” said Eirini Tsekeridou, fixed income analyst at Julius Baer.

Principal agrees with this assessment. “Overall, Chile enters 2026 with greater confidence and a clearer policy direction, but the outlook will largely depend on execution,” the firm’s report warned.

In this sense, they believe that the future Kast administration’s ability to manage fiscal consolidation and simplify regulation “will define whether the rebound in confidence translates into sustained increases in investment and improved medium-term economic performance.”

Even so, considering the rally that equities have experienced and the possible implications of a Kast presidency, there are doubts about how much more fuel local assets have to keep rising.

What’s Ahead for Chilean Assets

At Julius Baer, they remain optimistic, maintaining a buying bias for local equities. “The equity risk premium remains well above levels seen during the last stable regime (2010–2018), offering an attractive compensation, and Chilean stocks have limited exposure to global trade tensions and solid earnings momentum,” said Tsekeridou.

As for Chilean bonds, the European investment bank also maintains a “hold” recommendation due to “slower fiscal consolidation,” according to the analyst. And regarding the currency, the expectation is that the peso will continue to strengthen.

Guzmán, from SURA Investments, is less optimistic. “Given that José Antonio Kast’s victory was widely expected, we anticipate market gains within a narrower range, considering that the baseline scenario was largely priced in,” he said. In that sense, the Colombian-headquartered firm holds a “neutral stance” on the local stock market, “given the significant revaluation the index has shown during the year.”

In fixed income, the firm recommends investing in medium-term instruments, between 3 and 5 years, “which would allow investors to capture a relevant premium compared to short-term rates,” according to Guzmán.

Regarding the exchange rate, while they do not foresee major movements in the short term, they have a “constructive” view of the Chilean peso. SURA’s forecast is that the Chilean currency will gradually appreciate, adjusting to its economic fundamentals and offering a “relevant premium” to investors. “This view is based on reduced political uncertainty, greater interest from non-resident investors, and a favorable macroeconomic environment, which includes strong terms of trade and a globally weaker dollar,” the professional stated.

Santander PBI Adds Manuel Orihuela Suárez in Houston

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Santander PBI adds Manuel Orihuela Suarez in Houston

Santander Private Banking International Adds Manuel Orihuela Suárez as Senior Private Banker, Executive Director

Santander Private Banking International announced the addition of Manuel Orihuela Suárez as Senior Private Banker, Executive Director. He will join the team in Houston, Texas.

According to a welcome post on the official LinkedIn page, the professional brings “a deep knowledge of the sector and a strong commitment to delivering exceptional service to clients.”

“His experience and leadership are a great addition to Santander Private Banking International,” the post continues on the professional social network.

According to Orihuela Suárez’s LinkedIn profile, he has 16 years of experience in wealth and private banking, with expertise in economic and financial data analysis, portfolio management, and risk assessment. He also has experience in providing financing solutions for HNI and UHNI clients.

Before joining Santander PBI, he served as Senior Private Banker at HSBC and previously worked as a Private Banker at BBVA Bancomer in Mexico, where he had held other positions in various areas. Academically, he studied finance at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro and holds a Master’s degree in Business Administration and Management from Universidad Iberoamericana Monterrey.

Atlantis, More Than a Decade of Independence

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Atlantis Global Investors is one of the wealth management firms that best represents the evolution of Uruguay’s financial industry—through its origins, development, and future objectives. Talking about the independent private banking model is easy now, but when it all started in Montevideo eleven years ago, the path was far from clear. Miguel Libonati can tell the story now that, as he himself says, Atlantis “has moved beyond the survival stage.”

With offices in Montevideo, Asunción, and Miami, Atlantis is regulated by the Central Bank of Uruguay as an investment advisor and has institutional agreements with Morgan Stanley, Insigneo, EFG, Raymond James, Julius Baer, and UBS.

The paragraph above reads quickly, but when in 2014 Miguel Libonati and his son Bruno decided to leave big international banking and launch themselves as independent advisors, the idea was a leap into the void. The year before, Julius Baer had acquired Merrill Lynch’s international business outside the United States, and the deal officially closed in Uruguay on April 1, 2013.

“We saw an opportunity. We thought that merger between Julius Baer and Merrill Lynch was like mixing oil and water: an American bank, a broker, and then a first-rate Swiss institution—conservative, with different principles and standards,” explains Libonati.

To the surprise of the banker, who at the time had 20 years of professional experience in international institutions, several advisory teams wanted to join his venture. It was negotiated that three would leave with the Libonatis, and once that stage was complete, the hard work began to build the company from the ground up.

“It was a tough process: transferring clients, building a company, complying with regulators, with foreign banks, and above all maintaining client portfolios, which are always our fuel. When you move from one bank to another—which I did several times in my career—you only need to worry about your clients. This was something else; there were people who had followed us, who took a leap of faith because they trusted us,” explains the founder of Atlantis.

The initial process lasted four years, during which they built the entire framework of a financial firm offering global asset management: “We were already working in Argentina, we had hired more people—it wasn’t just about building and surviving anymore, we could start the development phase.”

Currently, Atlantis is a consolidated company growing at a rate of 10% annually, with 40% of clients from Uruguay and 60% from other countries in the region, especially Argentina. The development stage’s main challenge was the opening of an office in Miami—a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) called Innova Advisors, which is now operating at full capacity.

“I’d like to mention my two sons, Bruno and Stefano, who are part of the company and have been a fundamental pillar of our development—the first from the beginning as a founder, and Stefano for the past three years. I’d also like to mention the company’s team, who have been a key factor in our growth,” says Libonati.

Reborn on December 15

Miguel Libonati is a textbook Uruguayan: born in Salto 65 years ago, a die-hard Peñarol fan, an affable man, unpretentious and genuine, who uses formal address and always prioritizes decorum. His account of the creation of Atlantis is inseparable from one date—December 15, 2015—the year he was, as he puts it, “reborn.”

It was a time full of adrenaline and stress, of being extremely focused, and one night Libonati literally collapsed to the ground from an ailment he didn’t immediately recognize. The next morning, feeling better, he went to the office.

“I’m here on borrowed time, on borrowed time, on borrowed time,” he says. “At the office I signed some checks and decided to stop by the emergency room, where they ran the first tests and sent me straight to the operating room. Then the doctor told me to change my date of birth,” he adds.

As he recounts how he decided to go finish having a heart attack after stopping by the office, Ana Inés Gómez, General Manager of Atlantis, nods with a face that says “that’s exactly how it happened because I lived it”: Libonati is the kind of person who, literally, would rather die than leave his checks unsigned.

Ana Inés Gómez has been part of Atlantis’s independent adventure from the start: “Today, we have an undeniable track record. We are proud to be one of the few companies that trains its staff, its assistants. We hire young people who are not necessarily from the financial sector—they might be economists, but they don’t have to know the business. For us, their first year is an investment in their training, something that has brought some disappointments because people do leave, but also the reward of building a culture of excellence.”

Investing in the Real Economy, Dreaming Big for Uruguay

How does the founder define Atlantis today? Libonati circles around the question, preferring to avoid the label “global private banking,” which he considers overused: “We are a wealth management office that seeks excellence. And I don’t think that’s a tired phrase—we’ve truly survived all these years and created a brand in the shadow of the giants. So much so that we’ve received countless acquisition offers.”

The future involves consolidating the business in the United States, maintaining a good growth rate, and embracing innovations such as artificial intelligence.

But Libonati’s ambition goes far beyond that: “We are investing in the real economy; we are looking for those projects.”

The founders of Atlantis are considering creating an office to serve ultra-high-net-worth clients: “There is no institution of that kind in Uruguay. That’s where we should create a project that allows us to serve clients with accounts exceeding five million dollars—something in the family office segment.”

Miguel Libonati thinks big, believes in Uruguay’s potential, and wants to place it among the ranks of developed countries. He envisions the future by participating in and promoting the country’s economic and business fabric, driving innovation.

“I see progress, developments like artificial intelligence, and I’m not an alarmist—I never think everything will get worse, or that, for example, machines will replace us. I firmly believe that everything is moving toward improvement.”

Fewer New Investors and a Decline Among Young People

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The latest edition of the Investor Survey by the FINRA Investor Education Foundation, part of the National Financial Capability Study (NFCS) 2024, confirms a structural shift in the behavior of U.S. retail investors. Following the surge in market participation during the pandemic, the flow of new entrants has dropped sharply, while social media—and especially finfluencers—are playing a central role in the decision-making of younger investors.

Fewer New Investors and a Decline Among Young People

The report shows that the investment boom is fading: only 8% of respondents began investing in the two years prior to 2024, a sharp decline from 21% in 2021. Participation among those under 35 also fell significantly—from 32% to 26%, reversing much of the progress made during the COVID era.

According to FINRA, this suggests that a significant share of those who entered the market between 2019 and 2021 later withdrew, changing the average investor’s age profile. The decline is also observed—though to a lesser degree—among men and people of color.

Dominant Asset Types

Individual stocks remain the most common vehicle (80%), followed by mutual funds (57%) and ETFs (31%). Individual bond ownership reaches 33%.

In terms of risk appetite, the report indicates greater overall caution: only 8% say they are willing to take substantial risks, down from 12% in 2021. However, among those under 35, the willingness to take risks remains significantly higher, along with greater use of complex products:

43% of young investors trade options
22% use margin
9% have invested in meme stocks or other viral assets

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency exposure remains steady at 27%, but fewer investors intend to increase their position or buy for the first time (26% vs. 33% in 2021). Perceived risk has increased: 66% now consider crypto to be “very or extremely risky.”

Meme stocks (or memecoins) remain relevant, but mostly among younger investors: 29% of those under 35 have purchased them, compared to only 2% of those over 55.

Finfluencers and YouTube: Now a Structural Channel

One of FINRA’s most notable findings is the consolidation of the digital ecosystem as a key source of financial information:

YouTube is the most used platform for investment purposes (30% overall and over 60% among young people)
26% of all investors follow finfluencer recommendations—rising to 61% among those under 35

The influence of these actors is growing especially among new investors and ethnic minority communities, presenting challenges for regulators and financial advisors.

Financial Literacy and Fraud Risk: Warning Signs

FINRA highlights a persistent issue: low financial literacy levels. On average, investors answered only 5.3 out of 11 questions correctly in the test included in the survey.

The survey also reveals significant fraud vulnerabilities:

37% are concerned about losing money to scams
50% would invest—or do not rule out investing—in a classic fraudulent offer: a “guaranteed 25% annual return with no risk”

FINRA stresses that even investors who consider themselves highly informed often fail to identify clear signs of fraud, showing a confidence bias.

Implications for the Industry

For asset managers, advisors, and platforms, the report leaves three key messages:

Retail growth is no longer linear. The decline in youth participation demands sustainable acquisition strategies and more ongoing education.
Youth risk-taking persists, though with nuances. Products like options, margin, and crypto remain more popular among younger and newer investors.
The battle for trust is happening on social media. The structural influence of YouTube and finfluencers requires a stronger educational presence on these platforms and improved communication on risk and fraud awareness.

The 18 Sectors That Will Drive Growth Over the Next 15 Years

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Analysts at the McKinsey Global Institute have just published an ambitious report that looks to the future and identifies, with a horizon to 2040, the 18 main sectors of the global economy that will show high dynamism and growth.

The research estimates that these 18 sectors could generate between $29 trillion and $48 trillion in revenue, and between $2 trillion and $6 trillion in profit, by the year 2040.

Understanding the Future by Analyzing the Past

To understand the future, the consultancy analyzed what happened between 2005 and 2020 with the main sectors of the economy. Twelve segments experienced growth well above average—in particular, a compound annual growth rate in revenue of 10% and in market capitalization of 6%, while industries outside the ranking grew by just 4% and 6%, respectively.

The report develops a kind of “magic formula” for creating economic sectors with “special potential”—that is, a set of three common factors that tend to generate these dynamic arenas:

A step-change in business model or technology
Layered investment (i.e., major investments that reinforce each other and create compounding effects)
A large or growing addressable market

This Is the List of the Winning Sectors

Software and Artificial Intelligence Services
AI—in all its variants: generative, predictive, automation—is creating a new digital fabric for businesses and consumers. The sector will include AI platforms, specialized services, foundation models, and productivity tools.
Next-Generation E-Commerce
E-commerce will continue to expand, particularly toward integrated models (superapps, social commerce, live shopping), ultra-fast supply chains, and AI-powered personalized digital experiences. The line between physical and digital stores will keep blurring.
Digital Content Streaming
Entertainment will continue shifting to digital platforms with hybrid models (subscription + advertising). Competition will intensify as premium content, advanced analytics, and global distribution enable the emergence of new players and niche segmentation.
Digital Advertising
With the rise of data, AI, and new formats (short video, contextual advertising, integrated commerce), digital advertising will keep growing. The progressive elimination of cookies and tighter regulations will drive new models based on first-party data and smarter segmentation.
Video Games
Gaming is expanding as a cultural, technological, and social industry, fueled by subscription models, cloud gaming, persistent worlds, in-game economies, and immersive experiences.
Cybersecurity
Digital complexity and risks are rising—especially with AI, IoT, and connected critical systems. This sector will grow through managed services, infrastructure protection, digital identity, advanced threat detection, and automated response.
Cloud-Based Enterprise Software
Advanced SaaS solutions, modular platforms, AI-based applications, and tools enabling full business process integration in the cloud will continue to grow, improving efficiency and scalability.
Cloud Services and Infrastructure
Includes hyperscalers, data centers, computing services, storage, networking, and edge computing. Expansion is driven by generative AI, industrial automation, autonomous vehicles, and applications requiring low latency and high computing power.
Semiconductors
Chip demand will soar due to AI, electric vehicles, IoT, robotics, and defense. A new phase is opening with massive investments, geopolitical competition, next-generation miniaturization, and new materials. The supply chain will expand and be globally reconfigured.
Electric Vehicles (EVs)
The EV market will keep growing with improvements in batteries, lower costs, new architectures, and economies of scale. Competition will rise between traditional automakers and new entrants, especially from China.
Shared Autonomous Vehicles
Robotaxis and autonomous fleets will create a new urban mobility model, with per-kilometer costs far lower than current taxis. This area requires advances in sensors, AI, regulations, and HD mapping but promises to transform transportation and city infrastructure.
Advanced Batteries
Includes solid-state technologies, new materials, improvements in energy density, and cost reductions. Battery development is key for electric vehicles, stationary storage, electronic devices, and more flexible energy grids.
Next-Generation Nuclear Energy (Compact Fission)
Small modular reactors (SMRs) and safer, scalable fission technologies could provide clean, continuous power. Progress depends on regulation, industrial costs, and social acceptance, but several countries and companies are accelerating investments.
Industrial Biotechnology
Based on using living organisms or biological processes to produce materials, chemicals, fuels, and food. The convergence of synthetic biology, automation, and computing enables faster design cycles and lower costs.
Consumer Biotechnology
Includes personalized products and services based on genetics, the microbiome, metabolomics, and biomarkers. Growth is expected in advanced supplements, preventive interventions, personalized testing, and wellness solutions based on biological data science.
Treatments for Obesity and Related Conditions
New pharmacological therapies (such as GLP-1 agonists) are transforming treatment for obesity and related metabolic diseases. This sector could become one of the largest pharmaceutical markets in history due to the global scale of the issue.
Modular Construction
The industrialization of construction through prefabricated modules will reduce costs and construction time.
Space Development
Falling launch costs and advances in reusable rockets enable new models: small satellites, communications, Earth observation, in-orbit manufacturing, and commercial missions. The entry of private players is revitalizing a traditionally state-led sector.

You can access the full report: The Next Big Arenas of Competition.

What Does the Fed’s Latest Cut Mean Looking Ahead to 2026?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Fed latest cut looking ahead to 2026 — Photo courtesy

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) held its final meeting of 2025 yesterday and announced a 25 basis point cut, in line with market expectations. Thus, the year ends with interest rates in the target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. In the opinion of international asset managers, the fact that the Fed continues to lean toward lower rates, even as the U.S. records stronger inflation and growth, highlights a disconnect in global monetary policy.

“Available data suggest that economic activity has expanded at a moderate pace. Employment growth has slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased through September. The most recent indicators confirm this trend. Inflation has been rising since the beginning of the year and remains at elevated levels,” the Fed stated.

According to Gordon Shannon, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management (a boutique of Vontobel), this is an aggressive cut, as the FOMC has signaled a higher bar for monetary policy easing in 2026. “Investors are lowering their expectations for the number of rate cuts the Fed might implement. However, with the highest number of dissenters since 2019, even before the arrival of the new chair, the committee appears fractured,” Shannon notes.

From the FOMC’s Perspective

Experts from asset management firms agree that the monetary institution faces a delicate balancing act: curbing inflation while supporting the labor market so that households feel economically secure. During the meeting, Powell warned that there is no risk-free path and pointed out that a reasonable reference is that tariff-driven inflation effects—essentially a one-time shift in price levels—are likely to ease, highlighting notable progress this year in non-tariff-related inflation.

Additionally, the Fed emphasized that future measures will depend on the data, shifting to a firm meeting-by-meeting approach. As highlighted by Daniel Siluk, portfolio manager and Head of Global Short Duration and Liquidity at Janus Henderson, Powell reinforced this stance during his press conference, stating that the Committee views today’s cut as a “prudent adjustment” and not the beginning of a new cycle.

“The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) echoed that hawkish tone. Growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were revised slightly upward, inflation slightly downward for 2026, and unemployment remained stable over the medium term—hardly a context conducive to aggressive easing. The median dot plot for official interest rates remained unchanged at 3.6% for 2025 and 3.4% for 2026, indicating just one cut per year. Long-term expectations remain anchored at 3.0%,” Siluk explains.

Looking Toward 2026

That covers the Fed’s reasoning—but what does this decision mean looking ahead to 2026? In the short term, Ray Sharma-Ong, Deputy Global Head of Multi-Asset Bespoke Solutions at Aberdeen Investments, believes the Fed’s decision justifies a relief rally in the markets. “Markets went into the FOMC meeting concerned about a possible discussion of a rate hike. Powell’s comment that a hike was ‘not the base case’ removed that risk for now. Additionally, markets will be relieved by the Fed’s decision to address tension in repo and funding markets through the purchase of $40 billion in bills via the OMO, which will serve as a temporary short-term liquidity measure,” explains Sharma-Ong.

Beyond this immediate relief, the Aberdeen Investments expert adds that Fed monetary policy is no longer a catalyst for markets. “The long-term neutral rate remained at 3%. Now that the federal funds rate sits between 3.5% and 3.75%, the Committee views monetary policy as within the effective neutral range. The bar for further cuts is very high, suggesting the monetary policy landscape is likely to remain static for some time,” he argues.

Looking ahead to next year, Tiffany Wilding and Allison Boxer, economists at PIMCO, maintain that the Fed enters 2026 in a wait-and-see mode, shifting from cuts to caution. With the interest rate in neutral territory, the Fed turns to data dependency and faces a delicate balancing act in 2026. “Barring an economic shock, we are unlikely to see another rate cut until the second half of next year. Our outlook is largely aligned with that of the Fed and current market pricing: we expect the Fed to keep rates steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range for the remainder of Powell’s term as chair, which extends through May, before gradually resuming rate cuts later in the year under new Fed leadership,” the PIMCO economists argue.

Disagreements

One of the conclusions from this latest Fed meeting is that the decision taken did not have unanimous support from FOMC members, as Stephen Miran advocated for a 50 basis point cut, contrary to the majority. On the other hand, Jeffrey Schmid, Governor of the Kansas Fed, and Austan Goolsbee, Governor of the Chicago Fed, argued in favor of keeping rates unchanged.

“The Fed’s decision to cut rates came with three dissenting votes—the highest number since 2019. This highlights growing disagreement within the Fed in recent months regarding the next steps on interest rates, reinforcing a point we already made in October: the rate-setting committee now faces more complex decision-making dynamics,” notes Jean Boivin, Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute.

In this regard, for Max Stainton, Senior Global Macro Strategist at Fidelity International, the trajectory of interest rates in the market will increasingly be determined by speculation surrounding Donald Trump’s choice of the new Fed chair, rather than by the data.

“In our base case for 2026, we anticipate that the Trump Administration will appoint a dovish and non-traditional chair, whose main objective will be to further lower rates. This dynamic will likely distort the forward rate curve around the date the new chair takes office, in May 2026, with a new cutting cycle being priced in if this scenario materializes. Although the market has already begun to price in this possibility, there is still room for this to extend across both the short and long ends of the curve, with the arrival of a non-conventional dovish chair representing an underappreciated risk for the long end,” states Stainton.

AMCS Group Strengthens the Structure of Its US Offshore Sales Team

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The firm has appointed Álvaro Palenga as Head of US Offshore Advisory Sales, effective immediately, while Daniel Vivas, Associate Sales Director, will be relocated to Miami and will join the U.S. offshore team starting in early 2026, reporting to Palenga.

The new structure was designed to strengthen the company’s presence within the independent advisory channel and to more effectively coordinate its efforts in key regional markets in the Southwest and Northeast, according to a statement released by the group.

Alongside Palenga’s leadership appointment, he will take responsibility for the New York market, initially working alongside Chris Stapleton, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of AMCS. Palenga’s promotion follows a successful track record in driving the firm’s growth in the Florida market over recent years.

AMCS has observed that some of the largest teams from wirehouses and global banks increasingly operate from both New York and Miami. According to the firm, Álvaro Palenga will be instrumental in covering these multi-location teams to deepen AMCS’ presence in the New York market and sustain the firm’s momentum in this strategic segment.

As part of this initiative, Vivas will help drive growth in the independent advisory channel in Miami, while also assuming full coverage responsibility for the Southwest region.

Daniel Vivas initially joined AMCS in May 2024, based in Montevideo, focusing on Southern Cone sales. Over the course of his career, he has developed deep expertise in addressing the specific needs of the independent advisory segment, and his relocation to Miami will further enhance the firm’s ability to deliver quality support to advisors across the region, according to the statement.

In his expanded role, he will cover all clients, including wirehouses and global banks in the Southwest region, which includes the cities of Houston, San Antonio, McAllen (Texas), Tucson (Arizona), and San Diego (California).

“We are excited about these upcoming team enhancements. The addition of Dani Vivas to our U.S. offshore team demonstrates our commitment to increasing the market share of our partners in the independent advisory segment, which has been growing in both scale and relevance,” said Andres Munho, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of AMCS Group.

For his part, Chris Stapleton, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of the firm, added: “We are fortunate to have an excellent fund offering through AXA IM/BNP Paribas, Jupiter Asset Management, and Man Group, and we expect this new structure to continue driving the outstanding results achieved during 2025 into 2026 and beyond. I’m also excited to work alongside Álvaro to support the continued growth of our business in the Northeast.”