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Less Noise and More Intention: A Vision Backed by Experience for 2026

Discipline, Clarity, and Wealth Architecture Return to the Forefront in the Offshore Wealth Management Industry. In an interview with Funds Society, Cristina Acosta, founder and Managing Principal of 5E Wealth, shared her outlook for the coming years: a more professionalized wealth management sector, enhanced by better use of technology and a renewed focus on human connection.

“Well-designed wealth should provide peace of mind and direction,” she stated, as she reflected on the opportunities and challenges shaping the path forward in 2026. She highlighted a growing interest in thematic investments, many accessed through active ETFs, and the evolving role of alternatives as a complement within investment portfolios.

Acosta’s perspective is not shaped by short-term trends but by nearly three decades in the financial industry, including over 26 years dedicated specifically to wealth management. She has guided families and investors through multiple market cycles, crises, periods of exuberance, and structural transitions. That experience strongly informs her emphasis on coherence, discipline, and long-term strategic sustainability.

At the top of her LinkedIn profile is the phrase “wealth with intentionality,” a concept that captures this new chapter for the wealth management industry. “Wealth with intention means making conscious, transparent, and thoughtful decisions, connected to each family’s story and to what they want to preserve over time,” she explained. For Acosta, intentionality doesn’t mean rigidity, but rather purpose: “Directing capital with intention gives clients something incredibly valuable, peace, perspective, and confidence in their long-term decisions,” she said.

Cristina Acosta began her financial career in 1997 while studying at Northeastern University in Boston, joining Fidelity as an analyst on a small team focused on Latin America. This early experience gave her valuable international exposure and led her to participate in key projects from Luxembourg, during a period when Latin American financial markets were undergoing major structural changes and opening up to global institutions and asset managers.

After graduation, she joined J.P. Morgan Private Bank in New York, where she completed the private banking training program and developed a comprehensive view of wealth, working closely with legal, tax, fiduciary, and investment specialists.

In 2004, she moved to Switzerland to join UBS in Geneva, a pivotal experience that deepened her focus on long-term wealth preservation and structural simplicity. It was during this period that she committed to financial education and to using clearer, more inclusive language, particularly for women.

In 2009, she began working independently from Zurich, advising Latin American families for over a decade. In 2024, she founded 5E Wealth in partnership with Bolton Global Asset Management, driven by her belief that independence is essential to aligning interests and designing coherent, personalized wealth solutions.

Investing: Themes, Alternatives, and Risk Management

When it comes to investment opportunities, Cristina Acosta sees growing interest in thematic strategies, many of which are accessed through active ETFs or specialized funds. “Robotics, automation, artificial intelligence, and companies that integrate these technologies are gaining traction,” she noted.

She also highlights the role of alternative assets as a complement to core portfolios. “They’re growing due to the need for true diversification, low correlation, and the search for return sources beyond traditional markets,” she explained. Within this space, she sees stronger potential in infrastructure and secondaries, though she cautions about risks such as “illiquidity, valuation challenges, and overly optimistic narratives.”

From her experience, one of the main challenges remains comprehensive risk management. “I get concerned when I see wealth spread across multiple portfolios at different institutions without a clear global plan. Banks don’t talk to each other, and risks accumulate,” she warned. In this context, the independent advisor plays a key role as a neutral figure who connects and balances the full picture.

Offshore, Regulation, and the U.S. Advantage

Acosta also highlights that the modern offshore space is becoming increasingly regulated and transparent. “There is greater scrutiny and more demanding reporting requirements. Offshore is no longer opaque; it is clear and structured,” she stated in her conversation with Funds Society.

Regarding the United States as a jurisdiction, she emphasized its market depth, rule of law, and access to intellectual and institutional capital. “When used properly, the U.S. offers a very powerful platform for international wealth management,” she noted.

Looking ahead, Acosta identifies three key trends reshaping offshore wealth management from the U.S. The first is the growing institutionalization of the independent advisor. “I see stronger platforms with greater operational and regulatory rigor, without sacrificing independence or flexibility,” she said.

The second trend is the smarter use of wealth technology. “Tools for consolidation, oversight, and risk analysis will enable families and advisors to gain a truly comprehensive view of global wealth, something that was very difficult to achieve until recently,” she explained. For Acosta, the value lies not in the technology itself, but in how it’s applied: “Used well, it reduces operational burden and frees up time for high-quality service,” she noted.

The third is a clear return to the value of human relationships. “Many institutions lost that connection by over-institutionalizing their service. The market is moving toward less unnecessary intermediation and more discernment, structure, and fiduciary responsibility,” she predicted.

More Informed Clients and a New Generational Balance

This shift in the model goes hand in hand with a profound evolution in the profile of UHNW clients and the new generations. “Today, clients are more informed, ask more questions, and are less likely to delegate blindly,” said Acosta. In particular, younger generations value impact, governance, financial education, and flexibility, according to the founder of 5E Wealth.

“Education brings autonomy, discernment, and peace of mind,” she emphasized, especially in the case of women. “An educated client doesn’t necessarily want to manage their wealth alone, but becomes a more responsible and intentional investor,” she explained.

Looking at the cycle, Acosta describes 2025 as a year of transition and adjustment. “After several years of volatility and extreme narratives, many portfolios are in a digestion phase, rebalancing risks, revisiting assumptions, and returning to fundamentals,” she noted. In her view, this is not a year for impulsive decisions, but one for reinforcing structures and discipline.

For 2026, her tone is one of cautious optimism. “I believe interesting opportunities will arise, but selectively, not across the board,” she stated. Families that reach that point with clear goals, solid diversification, and patience will be better positioned. “Staying disciplined and tuning out the noise will be key to capturing value without compromising balance or peace of mind,” she added.

Insigneo Adds Renato Bisconcini and Renato Rizzatti to Its Team as Managing Directors

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Insigneo, an international firm specialized in wealth management, has welcomed Renato Bisconcini and Renato Rizzatti to its team. Both join as Managing Directors and investment professionals to expand coverage in Brazil. According to the firm, the team comes from BTG Pactual and brings experience in managing sophisticated portfolios for ultra-high-net-worth and high-net-worth clients in Brazil.

Before their time at BTG Pactual, Bisconcini and Rizzatti held key positions at Morgan Stanley, where they built a strong reputation for delivering tailored financial strategies to Brazilian families and institutional investors. Their decision to join Insigneo reinforces the firm’s commitment to attracting top-tier talent and expanding in Latin America.

“We are thrilled to welcome Renato Bisconcini and Renato Rizzatti to the Insigneo family. Their deep knowledge of the Brazilian market and proven track record are invaluable. These two professionals represent the high caliber of advisors we strive to work with, and their addition strengthens our position as the leading platform for international wealth management,” said Alfredo J. Maldonado, Managing Director and Head of Market for the Northeast Region.

By joining Insigneo, the team will leverage the firm’s open architecture platform and technology to offer clients a wide range of global investment solutions tailored to their evolving needs. Their addition to the Insigneo network represents a strategic step, strengthening its wealth management capabilities with top industry talent across Latin America.

“We are excited to join Insigneo. The firm’s entrepreneurial structure, open architecture platform, and tech-driven infrastructure expand what we can offer, more options, greater customization, and a smoother client experience. Insigneo will allow us to move faster, tailor solutions more precisely, and maintain a client-centered approach across market cycles,” said Bisconcini and Rizzatti in a joint statement.

Citi Private Bank Strengthens Its Latin America Team With New Bankers

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Citi Private Bank has added Jorrell Best, Lucas Fayad, and Luis Madia de Souza to its Latin America team, according to Antonio Gonzales, head of the region, in a post on his LinkedIn profile.

In the post, Gonzales welcomed the new bankers and emphasized that “these colleagues bring strong experience in wealth management and will be invaluable partners in serving our clients and driving growth in their respective regions.”

Of the new trio, Fayad and Madia de Souza will focus on the Brazilian market, while Best will cover Central America and the Caribbean from Miami, strengthening the regional coverage of the group’s private banking franchise.

Jorrell Best joins Citi Private Bank as a senior banker based in Miami, where he will serve clients in Central America and the Caribbean. He brings experience in wealth advisory for high-net-worth clients and is part of Citi’s U.S. private banking team, focusing on investment and planning solutions for international clients.

Lucas Fayad, meanwhile, joins the Brazil team from UBS Wealth Management, where he served as a private banker in São Paulo. His background centers on serving high-net-worth clients, with a strong focus on portfolio structuring and both local and offshore investment solutions.

Also joining for the Brazilian market is Luis Madia de Souza, who comes to Citi Private Bank after a long career at Itaú, where he worked for over 15 years in various wealth management and client relationship roles. His addition aims to reinforce local coverage and deepen the development of the private banking business in Brazil.

With these appointments, Citi Private Bank continues to strengthen its team in Latin America, a key region within its growth strategy for high- and ultra-high-net-worth clients.

Private Wealth in the Spotlight as the Alternative Assets Industry Booms

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

disinflationary growth momentum — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

Individual investors are showing growing interest in alternative assets, and firms specializing in this category are, in turn, increasingly focused on wealth management channels. This virtuous cycle, driven by product innovation and the search for returns and diversification, is leaving its mark on the industry globally. Today, it’s hard to find a major player in the private markets space that doesn’t view this trend as a key growth vector.

What was once an exclusive club for large institutional investors has opened up substantially, as industry transformation, and the differing return dynamics of private and public markets, continues to bring retail clients and large asset managers closer together. “Retail investors and pension systems around the world are increasing their participation in private markets, supported by regulatory changes expanding access to alternatives and a growing interest in infrastructure and real assets,” JP Morgan Asset Management noted in a recent report. The firm added, “This democratization of access is reshaping investor bases and fueling further growth.”

Naturally, asset managers are taking note and adjusting their strategies accordingly. While most of the big names in alternatives have yet to report their 2025 results, those that have emphasize the role of wealth management channels in their positive earnings.

A Beneficial Dynamic

Blackstone, for example, reported its best results in 40 years. While retail remains a minority share of the business, the firm highlighted the trend during its recent analyst call. “It’s notable that our capital raised in private wealth grew 53% year-over-year in 2025, reaching $43 billion, and we expect strong inflows again in 2026,” said Chairman and CEO Steve Schwarzman.

EQT, which also released results last week, noted that 26% of all capital raised during the 2024–2025 period came through private wealth channels. In an investor presentation, the firm detailed that its four evergreen funds, with a NAV of $4.1 billion, brought in $1.05 billion in flows during the first half of last year alone.

Other major players in the sector are set to report soon: Hamilton Lane on Tuesday, February 4; followed by KKR and Ares on Wednesday, February 5; Carlyle on Friday, February 6; and Apollo on Tuesday, February 11. All have previously highlighted the strength of private wealth flows and have made business decisions reflecting that momentum.

Carlyle CEO Harvey Schwartz noted that inflows from private clients into evergreen funds have risen from $300 million per quarter to $3 billion since he joined the firm in 2023. Meanwhile, KKR CFO Rob Lewin reported that the firm’s “K-series” vehicles, its family of wealth management–focused funds, raised $4.1 billion in Q3 alone. For Apollo Global Management, President Jim Zelter said the July–September period brought $5 billion in inflows from this segment.

The Key Piece: Semi-Liquids

The development of evergreen products, offering slightly more liquidity than traditional alternatives, is widely seen as critical to the expansion of this distribution channel.

“Retail investors will continue shaping the market,” predicted Eric Deram, Managing Partner at Flexstone Partners. In Natixis’s 2026 Alternatives Outlook, he wrote: “Evergreen semi-liquid products are gaining traction, appealing to both institutional and individual investors thanks to their simplicity and liquidity profile.”

As a result, product development in this area is now a top priority for major asset managers. Ares Management Corporation, for example, announced in its Q3 results that it had raised its 2028 AUM target for semi-liquid products in the wealth segment from $100 billion to $125 billion.

This is the prevailing tone across the industry, and one that will likely feature heavily in analyst and investor conversations during this reporting season. The sector is harnessing growth momentum from an expanding contributor base, and product offerings must evolve accordingly.

A Core Portfolio Component

Various surveys of financial advisors in developed markets show that alternatives are widely used in private portfolios. The fourth edition of the Alternative Investment Survey by CAIS and Mercer in the U.S. found that nine out of ten advisors include this asset class in portfolio management. Within that group, 16% allocate more than 20% to alternatives, while 49% have more than 10% exposure.

Independent RIAs and family offices appear to lead adoption, according to the survey. In this segment, one in four advisors allocates more than 20% to private markets.

Looking ahead, 88% of respondents plan to increase their alternatives allocation over the next two years.

In terms of product preferences, semi-liquids stand out: among advisors using alternatives in client portfolios, 82% use evergreen funds, either exclusively or in combination with other structures, with most of their clients. Private equity and private credit remain the most popular categories.

In Europe, data from the Private Banks and Wealth Managers Fund Selectors Survey by Novantigo show that UHNW clients have the highest exposure to private assets. Of this group, 33% allocate between 5% and 10% of their portfolio to such investments; 23% allocate between 10% and 15%; and 26% allocate more than 15%.

“Looking ahead, all client segments are expected to increase their private markets exposure, particularly in the HNW and UHNW segments,” noted the financial services firm in Efama’s Asset Management in Europe report.

The expansion of this trend in Europe has been supported by regulation, with the Eltif 2.0 era opening access to semi-liquid strategies for individual investors in the region.

Business Implications

Looking forward, the expectation is that this positive trend will continue. “We expect retail investors to become a growing source of AUM and fee-related revenues,” stated S&P Global Ratings in its Global Asset Manager Sector View for 2026.

However, the growing retail investor base also brings risks, the agency noted. “Products designed for individual investors may be more prone to volatility due to higher redemption rates, potentially resulting in more volatile EBITDA and leverage for asset managers with greater retail concentration,” the report said.

On another front, M&A dynamics in the industry suggest that firms are seeking to scale and add new capabilities. According to Deloitte’s Investment Management Outlook for 2026, a significant share of transactions in 2025 targeted wealth management and investment advisory companies.

“The continued expansion of alternatives offerings underscores the vital role that wealth management firms can play” in supporting clients, the firm noted, adding that this shift has also been fueled by the multi-trillion-dollar generational wealth transfer currently underway.

Disinflationary Growth Momentum Underway

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

The start of 2026 confirms the resilience of the economic cycle despite geopolitical noise (Greenland, Iran, Venezuela) and political uncertainty (Fed independence, ICE, and a potential shutdown).

Rather than weakening, the baseline scenario is solidifying into a disinflationary expansion, closely resembling the 1995–1999 period. The delayed transmission of the Fed’s three rate cuts in Q4 2025 is beginning to show, just as the fiscal impulse (OBBBA, stimulus checks, tax refunds, and fiscal measures in Japan and Germany) shifts from being a drag to becoming a tailwind for cyclical activity.

Monetary policy: Powell relies on price dynamics

The Fed’s first meeting of 2026 was widely anticipated by markets. Powell delivered a more constructive outlook on growth and the labor market. While his assessment could be read as slightly hawkish, the overall tone was dovish. The focus of his remarks shifted from labor market conditions to price dynamics.

Powell indicated that the recent inflation overshoot is largely due to tariffs, which added up to half a percentage point to the cost of living. Without them, core PCE would already be just above 2%.

The message was clear: the bias is toward future rate cuts, although the bar for action remains high. Current conditions support holding rates steady for now, with markets no longer expecting a cut before June.

Fed succession: risk of a hawkish shift

On Friday, Kevin Warsh was named as Powell’s successor. A former Fed governor (2006–2011), Warsh is known for his critical stance on expansionary monetary policy. He has opposed QE programs beyond the initial post-subprime round, arguing that they distort markets, fuel inflation, and politicize the Fed.

His conservative approach and preference for orthodox monetary policy—emphasizing price discipline, a leaner balance sheet, and limited intervention—have raised concerns among investors. He has even questioned recent decisions such as the 50 basis point cut in September, which he views as politically motivated. His appointment could strain the current balance between growth and financial stability and may strengthen the dollar.

Inflation, productivity, and dollar dynamics

The disinflationary trend continues. Productivity growth is outpacing GDP, easing wage pressures. Oil prices are supportive, and rents are moderating, while the impact of tariffs on the CPI is expected to fade in the coming months.

Despite this favorable macroeconomic backdrop, the recent decline in the dollar, coinciding with a rally in real assets such as gold, silver, and copper, appears to reflect a narrative of eroding monetary credibility rather than underlying fundamentals.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly defended a “strong dollar” policy, which helped stabilize the EUR/USD exchange rate after a technical oversold condition. However, the interest rate differential between the United States and the Eurozone suggests that a political risk premium is weighing on the pair, bringing it closer to April 2025 levels.

Earnings and Market Sentiment: Software in the Spotlight

The earnings season for the software sector reveals a technical capitulation. Companies like MSFT, NOW, and SAP have seen significant declines—not due to poor results, but rather their inability to justify previously high valuations. Adding to the pressure are concerns that AI solutions such as Anthropic Cowork could disintermediate major SaaS providers, threatening the traditional per-user licensing model.

The sector is clearly oversold. However, sentiment and technical damage will take time to recover. Key indicators to watch include upcoming data on Net Revenue Retention (NRR), cRPO, and company guidance. The market is looking for signs that renewals and workflow organization continue to hold up, and that AI has not yet had a structurally negative impact. Workday’s earnings on February 25 could be the catalyst to shift this narrative.

Circularity in the AI Ecosystem: Are Funding Rounds Inflated?

Another source of concern comes from the funding side. Reports of a potential $100 billion round for OpenAI, allegedly backed by its own partners (Nvidia, Amazon), have reignited fears over excessive circularity in the AI ecosystem. The perception that capital circulates within a closed loop of beneficiaries undermines the credibility of projected growth models.

AI Investment: Persistence and Barriers

Despite these concerns, AI investment shows no signs of slowing. The focus has shifted toward closed models with access to user data and reasoning capabilities—elements that could create durable barriers to entry.

While the market now demands tangible results, the disruptive potential and monetization opportunities continue to justify capital deployment. In 2026, AI-related CapEx will remain a key driver of corporate growth.

In conclusion, despite volatility and political risks, the macroeconomic backdrop remains constructive. The combination of robust growth, disinflation, and monetary prudence supports risk exposure. However, sector rotation, the evolving AI narrative, and the interpretation of post-Powell monetary policy will be critical to tactical portfolio construction in the first half of 2026. In the short term, there are also technical signals worth monitoring closely.

Global Assets in Active ETFs Approach $2 Trillion

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Insigneo nuevos managing directors — Canva

Global assets in actively managed ETFs reached a new all-time high of $1.92 trillion at the end of December, surpassing the previous record of $1.86 trillion set in November 2025. This means that, in 2025, assets grew by 64.5%, rising from $1.17 trillion at the end of 2024 to $1.92 trillion.

According to ETFGI’s analysis of the data, “during December, the global actively managed ETF industry recorded net inflows of $56.23 billion, bringing total net inflows for 2025 to a record $637.47 billion.” This flow activity was driven by globally listed, actively managed equity ETFs, which saw net inflows of $33.31 billion. “This brought total inflows for the year to $361.33 billion, significantly higher than the $211.34 billion accumulated in 2024,” they noted.

Actively managed fixed income ETFs also saw strong demand, with $18.56 billion in inflows in December and $237.93 billion year-to-date, well above the $139.69 billion recorded in 2024.

They note that “the substantial inflows can be attributed to the 20 top active ETFs by new net assets, which collectively gathered $15.89 billion during December.” Specifically, the JPMorgan Active Bond ETF (JBND US) attracted $1.19 billion, marking the largest individual net inflow.

FIBA Announces 2026 Board of Directors

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

politicas antiinmigracion impacto economico — Photo courtesy

The Financial & International Business Association (FIBA) announced the composition of its Board of Directors for 2026, bringing together top-level executives from international banking, law firms, compliance, fintech, cross-border payments, and businesses connected to digital assets. The new board reflects the diversity of the global financial ecosystem and the growing intersection between traditional banking and emerging financial service verticals.

The Chair of the 2026 Board will be Pablo Vallejo, General Manager of Banco Pichincha Miami Agency, who will assume leadership of the board as FIBA’s global agenda continues to expand. Vallejo succeeds Mónica Vázquez, who will remain involved as Immediate Past Chair.

“FIBA’s strength comes from the diversity and expertise of the community we bring together,” said David Schwartz, President and CEO of FIBA. “Our board of directors reflects the highest level of industry leadership and reinforces our commitment to providing exceptional education, meaningful networking opportunities, and industry-leading events. Among them is the FIBA Anti-Money Laundering (AML) Conference, one of the Association’s flagship events, which brings together the most respected voices in the industry for professionals navigating today’s evolving financial landscape,” he added.

“As Chair, I am honored to work alongside an exceptional group of professionals who share a deep commitment to excellence and collaboration,” said Pablo Vallejo, Chair of the FIBA Board of Directors 2026 and General Manager of Banco Pichincha Miami Agency. “FIBA has become a trusted platform for the financial community to learn, connect, and lead, and we will continue to elevate the quality of the Association’s education, member experience, and global industry offerings,” he added.

Headquartered in Miami, FIBA has established itself as a key meeting point for the international financial community, with a focus on regulation, compliance, AML, payments, and cross-border banking. Through its annual event agenda and Education Academy, the Association plays an important role in professional development, offering globally recognized certifications in partnership with Florida International University (FIU).

Looking ahead to 2026, FIBA will continue expanding its reach with a community that already includes more than 110 member organizations and over 10,800 certified professionals worldwide.

2026 FIBA Board Leadership:

Pablo Vallejo (Banco Pichincha) — Chair
Mónica Vázquez — Immediate Past Chair
Luis Navas (Insigneo Securities, LLC) — Chair-Elect
Susana Sierra (BH Compliance) — Vice Chair
Guillermo Benites (UDT) — Vice Chair
Harry Cupp (Sunwest Bank) — Vice Chair
Marina Olman (Greenberg Traurig) — Vice Chair
Wayne Shah (Wells Fargo) — Treasurer
Peter Rahaghi (Shutts & Bowen) — General Counsel
Teresa Foxx — Past Chair Representative

New 2026 Board of Directors:

The new board is rounded out by executives from financial institutions, law firms, and financial services companies with a strong regional and international presence:

Amerant — Shalako Weiner
Athena Bitcoin — Carlos Carreño
BANESCO — Norma Sabo
Banco Azteca — Alberto Bringas
Banco de Bogotá — Alfonso Garcia
Banco Popular Dominicano — Edward Baldera
Banco Santander International — Alfredo Aguila
Bradesco — Dulce Galindo
Diaz Reus — Javier Coronado
Facebank — Bernardo Velutini
Helm Bank — Mark Crisp
Holland & Knight — Andy Fernandez
Itaú — Erico Narchi
JPMorgan — Vinicius Furtado
Kaufman Rossin — Heidy Duarte
Republic Bank — Kimberly Erriah-Ali
SunState Bank — Fabricio Macastropa
TD Bank — Alexis Flores
Terrabank — Antonio Uribe
Truist — Luis Arango
U.S. Century Bank — Maricarmen Logrono
Winston & Strawn — Carl Fornaris

A growing association

FIBA emphasizes that the composition of the 2026 board reflects a phase of consolidation and growth, in a context where financial regulation, financial crime prevention, digital payments, and digital assets are gaining importance on the global agenda.

The association will continue to strengthen its role as a leading platform for international banking and compliance, supporting the evolution of the financial system in the United States and Latin America.

Why Monitor the Impact of Japan’s Early Election

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

In the past twelve months, Japan has been responsible for some market volatility, something we are not accustomed to. A sign of this has been the recent sharp bond sell-off, which drove yields to record levels and attracted media attention. The combination of a weak yen, the rebound in long-term yields, the fiscal challenges that need to be addressed, and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy normalization process are part of the elements behind these movements.

To this is added the fact that, over the weekend, the country will hold early elections, which were called earlier this year by Sanae Takaishi, Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP).

“This move by Takaishi aims to assert control over her own party and coalition, in order to implement her multi-year reflation strategy. The markets rightly fear that giving her more political capital means more fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures, hence the massive sell-off in the bond market and the jump in stocks. The yen reflects the fear that the Bank of Japan may be hindered by the executive from normalizing real interest rates quickly enough to contain inflationary pressures,” explains Raphael Gallardo, Chief Economist at Carmignac.

For now, the current expansive fiscal policy and uncertainty on the political front highlight the structural obstacles the country is facing, including negative real yields and an already high level of debt.

“The new prime minister wants to take advantage of her very high current popularity rating to win seats for the Liberal Democratic Party and regain control of the Lower House against a Democratic Party for the People, the opposition party, which is unprepared,” adds Martin Schulz, Head of the International Equity Group at Federated Hermes.

Moreover, stocks reacted positively, boosting the “Takaichi Trade,” which includes the aerospace and defense, nuclear, cyber, and domestic exposure sectors.

“Although we have observed some yen depreciation, the restrictions on Chinese exports and the increase in inflationary pressures could negatively affect the confidence of Japanese households and businesses in the short term, so ensuring internal political unity in the long term could help Japan’s negotiating position internationally, especially with the upcoming summit between Japan and the United States. Among the risks we are observing are internal political gridlock and a further unwanted depreciation of the yen,” notes Schulz.

Implication for the Markets

To understand why this weekend’s Japanese election is important, it is necessary to reflect on the role Japan plays in the markets. First, after several decades, it seems to be breaking out of economic stagnation.
“Japanese equity valuations have been particularly affected by the persistent reflation scenario. In these environments, the relationship between interest rates and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios tends to invert. This has caused the P/E ratios of Japanese companies to barely exceed 17 times over the past twenty years, compared to the nearly 20-times average over rolling 10-year periods recorded by U.S. equities,” explains Noriko Chen, Portfolio Manager at Capital Group.

Secondly, it should be remembered that Japan plays a significant role as a “major financier” in recent years through the large carry trade that many have taken advantage of as a technical strategy, and upon which much of today’s leverage has been built.

“By keeping interest rates at zero or even negative levels, the Bank of Japan allowed a large amount of trillions of dollars to flow into risk assets around the world, especially the United States. Today, that cycle appears to be ending with the normalization of monetary policy, which is forcing the unwinding of massive positions,” states Laura Torres, Chief Investment Officer at IMB Capital Quants.

In view of the early elections this weekend, Ray Sharma-Ong, Deputy Global Head of Bespoke Multi-Asset Solutions at Aberdeen Investments, explains that if the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) were to secure a majority and move forward with its fiscal agenda, several macroeconomic repercussions could be expected in the markets.

“Growth and aggregate demand will increase, driven by considerable fiscal stimulus and targeted investment in strategic sectors such as defense and energy. In addition, inflation expectations and Japanese government bond yields will rise, reflecting the market’s anticipation of a larger fiscal deficit, increased public spending, and greater uncertainty regarding the long-term fiscal path. And finally, the Japanese yen will weaken, as markets price in a weaker fiscal position, a larger fiscal deficit, and the possibility of a slower consolidation of public finances,” argues Sharma-Ong.

Historic Silver Rally: From Structural Factors to Political Decisions

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Grey Capital acuerdo estrategico Peru — Canva

Although all eyes are on the record highs gold is setting, the truth is that another precious metal is experiencing a true rally: silver. It posted a spectacular year-end surge that has continued into the early weeks of 2026. In fact, in 2025, the metal appreciated by nearly 150%, clearly outperforming gold.

So far, gold’s current bullish trend has been supported by falling real interest rates, a weaker dollar, and market concern over the implications of rising U.S. public debt levels, the cost of servicing that debt, and the impact on U.S. Treasury bonds. But what factors are driving silver’s performance?

According to Claudio Wewel, currency strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, the silver market has recorded a structural supply deficit for five consecutive years. “However, this imbalance hadn’t triggered a significant price reaction until 2025, when the uptrend accelerated and took on a virtually parabolic pattern toward the end of the year,” he notes. Wewel attributes this sharp upward movement, which even surpassed the absolute price increases seen ahead of the peaks in 1980 and 2011, to the combination of several factors:

Decline in U.S. interest rate expectations: In the second half of 2025, the market began to focus on the appointment of a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. “The expectation of a more accommodative Fed, which could implement several rate cuts in 2026, has weakened the U.S. dollar and increased the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as silver and gold,” he notes.
Inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list: In early November 2025, the U.S. Department of the Interior added silver to its list of critical minerals. Thanks to its high electrical conductivity, this material is essential for manufacturing high-performance chips and for the development of infrastructure linked to artificial intelligence. Its inclusion on the list, along with fears of potential U.S. tariffs on silver, alerted the market to potential supply risks and prompted an advance in silver shipments to the U.S. As a result, the London market recorded physical outflows of the metal, reducing local reserves.
Chinese export restrictions: Since the beginning of the year, China has implemented stricter controls on silver exports. This decision is part of a broader strategy to secure access to critical minerals and limits silver exports during 2026 and 2027 exclusively to government-approved companies.
Growing relevance as a store of value: Finally, silver is gaining prominence as a monetary metal. Compared to other commodities, its storage cost is low, and it has a long historical track record as a key material in coinage. The high per-unit cost of physical gold purchases is excluding many low- and middle-income buyers in emerging markets, positioning silver as a more “affordable” alternative to gold in these countries. As a result, household demand has increased in India and China. In Shanghai, buyers are paying a premium of around $10 per ounce over the London market price.

“The sharp surge in the price of silver has brought the gold/silver ratio to around 50. Given that this indicator fell to levels near 40 in previous bullish cycles, silver could significantly surpass $100 per ounce in the current cycle. In principle, our positive view on gold supports this scenario, and speculative positions do not appear excessive,” states Wewel.

However, he warns that although the physical supply deficit should keep silver prices elevated in the short term, the metal tends to experience much deeper corrections than gold after a prolonged rally due to its higher volatility. “Since momentum is losing strength, the risk-return balance now seems less attractive for silver. This also implies that, from these levels, it should be difficult for silver to continue outperforming gold,” he concludes.

Rick Rieder and the Fed: The ‘Outsider’ Candidate Who Reopens the Debate

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

The possible nomination of Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, as the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve has reopened debate among investors, economists, and monetary policy analysts. At stake is not just a name, but the leadership profile the Fed needs at a time when its traditional policy framework is under scrutiny.

With Jerome Powell’s term coming to an end, Rieder has emerged as one of the most visible candidates, despite being clearly outside the central banking establishment. According to an analysis by EFG International, his potential appointment would be historic: Rieder would be the first Fed chair in decades without prior experience at the central bank or academic training as an economist.

An Outsider Versus the Traditional Model

In a note signed by Stefan Gerlach, Chief Economist at EFG, the bank highlights that while Powell is also not a career economist, he had a long track record within the Federal Reserve before assuming the chair. Rieder, by contrast, comes exclusively from the world of financial markets, having built his career at firms like Lehman Brothers and more recently, since 2009, according to his LinkedIn profile, at BlackRock, where he oversees approximately $2.7 trillion in global fixed income assets.

This unconventional background is precisely the heart of the controversy. For Bob Smith, President & Co-Chief Investment Officer at Sage Advisory, the contrast between “insider” candidates, such as Christopher Waller or former governor Kevin Warsh, and a clearly external figure like Rieder raises a key question: is institutional credibility more important today, or direct market experience?

One of the main concerns raised by both EFG and Sage Advisory is the reputational risk associated with the Fed’s independence. The fact that Rieder comes from the world’s largest asset manager could fuel perceptions of a central bank more closely aligned with private-sector interests, at a time when its autonomy has already been a subject of political and media debate.

EFG’s Chief Economist recalls that history offers discouraging precedents when the Fed has been led by figures lacking a strong technical foundation in monetary policy, citing the case of G. William Miller in the late 1970s, whose tenure coincided with a decline in the Fed’s credibility in the face of inflation.

Sage Advisory, meanwhile, notes that the Fed’s institutional design, with collegial decision-making within the FOMC and well-defined operating frameworks, serves as a natural check on any attempt at individual influence, although it acknowledges that market perception plays a central role.

Diego Albuja, market analyst at ATFX LATAM, points out that “Rieder’s profile is technically solid. His decades-long career in fixed income markets has allowed him to closely analyze inflation, interest rates, liquidity, and credit, precisely the core pillars on which monetary policy operates. This would give him a clear advantage in interpreting how markets react to each Fed decision and how those decisions are transmitted to the real economy.”

However, Albuja clarifies, unlike other chairs, Rieder does not come from academia or the internal structure of the central bank. “This means his main challenge wouldn’t be economic analysis itself, but rather managing institutional credibility, communicating with the market, and sustaining public confidence in an increasingly sensitive political and financial environment.”

“The fixed income investment chief at BlackRock, who has never held political office, would bring a perspective grounded in granular, data-driven corporate analysis, rather than in economic theories and models,” wrote Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, in a note quoted by CNBC. “Markets are likely to embrace Rieder as one of their own,” he added.

A Shift in the Approach to Monetary Policy?

From a macroeconomic perspective, analyses agree that Rieder would likely be seen as a chair more attuned to current financial conditions than to retrospective analyses of inflation and employment. EFG notes that this approach could translate into quicker responses to market changes, though it would also pose a challenge for maintaining coherence and predictability in monetary policy.

In that context, voices like that of macro analyst Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, suggest that Rieder could soften the tone of the Fed’s communication and give more weight to financial stress indicators, without necessarily signaling an aggressive turn toward rate cuts.

ATFX LATAM’s market analyst believes that Rick Rieder has the technical capacity and market experience to lead the Federal Reserve, “but his true test would lie in preserving the central bank’s independence and credibility. If successful, he could usher in a more pragmatic era in monetary policy; if not, the cost could show up in greater volatility and reduced effectiveness of the Fed’s decisions.”

“Rieder is an unconventional candidate,” notes Puckrin, “but maybe that’s exactly what’s needed at a time when the market is questioning how effective traditional policy tools really are in fulfilling the Fed’s dual mandate.”

Beyond the candidate himself, the consensus among the sources cited is that the discussion around Rieder reflects a deeper tension within the U.S. financial system: the need to adapt monetary policy to a more complex environment, without eroding the central bank’s credibility or independence.