CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Aaron Goodman. The Evolution of China’s Capital Markets
There is little doubt China is going to play a major role in determining the trajectory of global markets. So with the world’s second-largest economy going through a period of profound change, says Investec, it is crucial for investors to gain an understanding of the challenges and opportunities inherent in this transformation.
For the past five years or more China has been rebalancing to make consumption a bigger part of the domestic economy than investment, and services a more important driver of growth than manufacturing. The People’s Republic is also seeking to become better integrated into the global financial system by allowing greater foreign participation in its domestic capital markets and encouraging its companies to invest abroad.
“The recent turmoil in China’s onshore markets was further evidence that this rebalancing process was not going as smoothly as planned, while the global reaction highlighted the fact that many investors have not understood it or the challenges it represents”, points out the firm.
But Investec believe such gyrations should be expected as structural adjustments play out. “As the rebalancing process continues, we anticipate a wealth of opportunities may be uncovered for investors who are prepared to take a disciplined, bottom-up approach with a long-term time horizon”.
According to the Investec´s experts, while many investors may not yet be ready to invest in China’s onshore markets today, there is growing recognition of the importance of developing a more nuanced understanding of the changes taking place in China and the country’s role in the evolution of the global financial system. “We believe that the sharp global reactions to China’s stock market volatility and devaluation of the renminbi over the summer of 2015 make clear that we are embarking on a new era in global markets, one that has China’s increasing integration into the global financial system at its core”.
“This process is only just beginning and the road is likely to be bumpy. Beijing’s policy response to steering the country through its major economic and financial transitions, is not going to be familiar. China is taking an alternative path to financial regulation than that traced by the West by choosing to experiment to find an appropriate position. Beijing will likely make small, regular adjustments to various policy levers to find out what works”, state Investec.
Since the firm established our Hong Kong office in 1997, Investec Asset Management has invested in both onshore and offshore Chinese securities. “Over the past two decades we have learned to navigate the country’s complex and evolving regulatory processes, and understand its unusual market dynamics. We hope to share this insight with our clients and use our knowledge and expertise to help them understand the impact of events in Beijing on their portfolios, wherever they are invested”, conclude.
From left to the right: Jaime Gilinski, main shareholder of Banc Sabadell; Juan Manuel Santos, President of Colombia, and Josep Oliu, Chairman of Banco Sabadell. Courtesy photo. Josep Oliu, Chairman of Banco Sabadell, Opens Representative Offices in Bogota and Lima
Last week, Josep Oliu, Chairman of Banco Sabadell, opened the entity’s new representative offices in Bogota and Lima. Both Colombia and Peru represent key markets in the consolidation process of the entity’s international project in Latin America.
The representative office in Bogota was opened last Wednesday. Some 150 guests in total attended this event, including the President of the Republic, Juan Manuel Santos, and representatives of the business, economic, political and social sectors in Colombia. Among these guests was Jaime Gilinski, with whom Banco Sabadell has recently formalised the acquisition of 4.99% of the local bank BGN Sudameris and signed a strategic cooperation agreement.
Colombia, with an average growth of over 4% since the beginning of the last decade, has become the fourth largest economy in Latin America. Its per capita income has more than doubled, and is now close to the average levels of the region.
The representative office in Lima was opened on Thursday, and over a hundred people attended the event. Peru has experienced an average growth rate of over 5% since 2000, and is now one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America. There has also been a marked improvement in the country’s rank in global competitiveness indices.
The office in Bogota is located in the Stock Exchange building and is managed by Victor Leaño, a Colombian specialist in corporate banking who has worked at Banco Sabadell for over 16 years. His latest role has been as Head of International Development for the Entity in Mexico, Colombia and Peru.
The office in Lima is located in the Umayuq building, on Avenida Victor Andrés Belaunde, in the San Isidro district. The office manager is Juan Ignacio de la Vega, who also has extensive experience in Latin America, having worked in countries like Guatemala and Ecuador. For the last seven years, he has been further developing his professional career in Peru.
The network of Grupo Banco Sabadell’s representative offices and international branches, including Global Corporate Banking activities, are coordinated by the Directorate-General for the Americas & Global Corporate Banking, led by Fernando Pérez-Hickman. At present, Banco Sabadell’s turnover in America is already in excess of 16 billion dollars.
Photo: Arek Olek. Navigating The Storm: In Risk Budgeting and Alpha We Trust
Sailors and mountaineers know it: weather can vary all of a sudden and change a nice family journey into a dangerous endeavour. 2015 started like a beautiful year, blessed by as many as fourteen central banks’ simultaneous efforts to support the economy, with the BoJ and ECB at the forefront. The family picture on 31 March was great: equities and bonds were up during the first quarter; European equities were finally catching up with US equities (up 22%), while Asian stocks were also posting double digit gains, led by China and Japan.
Then, storm clouds gathered. Having bottomed out at 7 bps on 20 April, the 10-year bund yield soared unexpectedly to 98 bps in just a month and a half, generating an unprecedented loss in value of 8.3%. As soon as bond markets stabilised, the Grexit drama came back to haunt investors and policymakers. These clouds dissipated eventually after another marathon all-night summit. But this was a short term relief. Concerns over China’s foreign exchange regime and uncertainties over the Fed’s stance caused unprecedented movements in equity markets in August.
There are fundamental weaknesses that justify market jitters. The economic recovery in Europe and in Japan is weak, large emerging markets ranging from Brazil to China and Russia are experiencing a severe growth deceleration and deflation risks remain significant across the board. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will sooner or later have to reverse an unprecedented accommodative stance. The valuation of US equities signals that they are now historically expensive, whether measured by the price-to- book ratio or by the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio.
That said, it seems to us that in the medium term, the positive developments on the US recovery front will outweigh the negative implications of the above. Overall, the world economy is likely to be supported by buoyant growth conditions in the United States. However, the sharp growth deceleration in emerging markets implies that aggregate demand will likely remain depressed. In this environment we continue to prefer European and Japanese equities. Their valuation remains attractive in relative terms and earnings momentum has recently been supportive. For the reasons listed above we maintain a neutral stance on fixed income: a low growth environment and deflation fears are supportive but valuations are expensive.
It is precisely because there are bad times that there is a long-term premium in investing into markets. If our scenario is correct, markets will keep on conveying the value generated by the growth of the global economy, possibly in a perturbed manner.
More than ever we believe that combining risk-budgeting and alpha strategies delivers returns in the long run. Risk- budgeting generates sound risk-adjusted returns. Aside from this Market Premia harvesting, diversified Hedge Fund portfolios contribute to smoothing the ride. Let us review why.
Alpha strategies
Hedge Fund strategies have proven very resilient this year. Event Driven/ Risk arbitrage have suffered but most Equity L/S or Global Macro managers have managed to smoothen the global turmoil. As of end-September, the Lyxor L/S Equity Broad index is up 1% year to date, while global equity indices are down almost 10%. The HFR Fund of Fund was still positive end of August even if September moves will likely bring it in negative territories. At that date, some Funds of Hedge Funds were displaying positive performances, some of them above 2%, which is quite remarkable in this environment.
Alpha strategies have been under pressure over the 6-year market rally. But over the course of 2015, investors have increasingly allocated to such funds due to traditional long- only funds being less attractive in relative terms. Interestingly, inflows into liquid alternatives in 2015 are reaching record levels in Europe, at EUR 50bn between January-August 2015. This confirms, if any proof was needed, the long-term hedging properties of Hedge Funds as long as investors put enough emphasis on due diligence matters.
Risk budgeting strategies
The short term case for risk budgeting strategies is more involved. They have been roasted by some commentators recently for two reasons:
they have contributed to downward market movements
they have posted disappointing performances. Not only risk budgeting has been wrongly charged of exacerbating market movements but we point out the remarkable long-term properties of these strategies.
Certainly risk budgeting strategies can lead the manager to sell despite having a positive outlook on the market. But this is like reducing the sail surface of a boat when the wind picks up. It might prove costly if the wind falls back but might also avoid a very difficult situation if the wind picks up again.
As the VIX soared brutally from 13% on 17 August to 41% on 24 August, some people judged that risk budgeting strategies would have immediately cut their position in the same proportion (by 3) hence worsening the sell-off. In our view, this is very much exaggerated.
As far as their performance are concerned, risk- budgeting strategies cannot escape the global market sell-off, particularly when they are long-only. This said, most of them deliver returns above traditional balanced funds since they have reduced gradually their exposure as long as market risk was increasing.
On top of that, the remarkable long-term properties of risk budgeting should be kept in mind. AQR Asness, Frazzini and Pedersen (2012) published a very long-term simulation of a typical risk parity strategy in a article in the Financial Analyst Journal.
Interestingly, these simulations show that not only risk parity strategies do extremely well since 1980 but they would have also been quite resilient between 1930 and 1980. Similar results can be found in many textbooks such as the authority on the matter published by T. Roncalli in 2013.
Even if not doing it in a systematic manner, we definitely recommend thinking in terms of risk allocation more than in terms of dollar allocation since this has proven to be and will likely remain much more efficient.
Nicolas Gaussel is Chief Investment Officer for Lyxor Asset Management.
. Amundi Registers Its Document de Base for IPO With The French Autorité des Marchés Financiers
Amundi announces last week the registration of its document de base with the French Autorité des marchés financiers under number I.15-073 dated October 6, 2015.
The registration of the document de base is the first step towards Amundi’s initial public offering on the regulated market of Euronext Paris. The completion of the IPO remains subject to receiving the AMF’s visa on the IPO prospectus and to market conditions.
Amundi’s document de base is available on the websites of the company (www.amundi.com) and of the AMF (www.amf-france.org). A printed copy is available free of charge upon request to Amundi at 90 boulevard Pasteur, 75015 Paris. Amundi draws your attention to Chapter 4 « Risk Factors » of the document de base registered with the AMF.
Yves Perrier, Chief Executive Officer of Amundi, commented: “Since its creation in 2010, Amundi has transformed into a European leader. Thanks to its diversified business model, Amundi has enjoyed a strong growth momentum of its activities and earnings. The planned IPO signals the next phase of Amundi’s growth.”
Courtesy photo. Ugo Sansone Appointed as Allfunds Consolidates its Luxembourg Operations
Allfunds Bank has appointed former Eurizon Capital Ugo Sansone to head its business in Luxembourg to help drive the firm’s international expansion.
Ugo is a highly respected and well-known industry figure in the Luxembourg where he has been an active stakeholder across the Investment Fund sector. Ugo has spent his entire career at Intesa Sanpaolo Group, leading the international commercial activities of its Asset Management affiliate, Eurizon Capital for the past ten years. At Eurizon Capital, Ugo led the international commercial and client service activities, with a relevant role at the Company’s SICAV Management Board. Prior to joining Eurizon he held several roles at Sanpaolo Group both in UK and in Luxembourg.
Under Ugo’s leadership, Allfunds’ Luxembourg operations are fully prepared for the new challenges ahead: to support the international growth of the platform across the world and incorporate more institutional clients across France and the Benelux region.
Allfunds Bank’s Deputy General Manager, Gianluca Renzini, said: “We know Ugo very well as both a client and provider. He knows our company inside out and he can really extract the best from it. We consider Luxembourg strategic for our corporate development, as it is one of the most important financial centres at the heart of Europe, is a natural and logical evolution as Allfunds becomes ever more successful in following and supporting our clients and providers in their international expansion”.
Ugo said: “I am really excited to have this opportunity to build upon my long career in European investment funds and apply that experience in a major fund distribution business. Regulatory change and increasing operational efficiency are key to promoting our services and to be considered as the best fund servicing outsourcer in this market. Allfunds is very well positioned in this market and I look forward to bring it to the next level, increasing our regional client book while supporting the international strategic development of the platform”.
Photo: Dennis Jarvis. Made in China 2025: Opportunities and Challenges
Made in China 2025 released by Chinese State Council in early May this year, has established a guiding principle for China’s transformation from a “manufacturing giant” to a “manufacturing powerhouse” in next 10 years. Based on the “Industry 4.0” in Germany, this plan introduces the “three step” strategy. By taking 30 years, which is divided into 10 years of three, it aims to build China into a manufacturing powerhouse in the year 2045 when China celebrates its 100th anniversary.
Develop China from a manufacturing “giant”to a manufacturing “powerhouse”
9 strategic objectives are put forward in Made in China 2025, which include improve innovation ability, promote the integration of informatization and industrialization, establish high-quality brand, implement green manufacturing comprehensively and vigorously promote breakthroughs and development in key areas etc. And it also has 10 key areas covering information technology, energy conservation and new energy, aviation and navigation and biological medicine etc.
The central government will provide special funds and tax preferences for 10 key areas. Although the details are not released, it is believed that the whole planning will improve the influence of Chinese enterprises in global industries and enhance the ability of enterprises to meet the different needs of customers at the same time.
Industry 4.0 can be achieved directly by taking existing advantages
Made in China 2025 is released at this very time and it is of certain advantage for China from the perspective of development process. Compared with developed countries, China and other emerging markets are able to combine industrial systems with the Internet earlier and faster due to the fact that they have invested heavily on infrastructure. This would help emerging markets to promote efficiency and enter the stage of “Industry 4.0” directly by skipping the stage of “Industry 2.0” and “Industry 3.0” which developed countries have experienced. For example, emerging markets do not bother to install electrical cable and wire but use wireless technology directly. By strengthening the connection between enterprises, it will be able to improve the overall economic scale of enterprises and ease the constraints on resources and finance, which makes enterprises more efficient and “smart.”
However, there are still many challenges to cope with in the future in order to achieve the ambitions in Made in China 2025. Firstly, current innovation ability of China is still not high. Although China has 223,000 patent applications in 2014, which make it a country where the most patents are applied for four consecutive years, China is still highly dependent upon importing core materials. In addition, China’s spending on R & D is, all the time, only 2.0% GDP (2013). And it leads to the fact that the added value of the manufacturing industry is only 21.5%, which is far lower than 35% or more in other developed countries.
Innovation ability and image are to be improved
In addition, Chinese brand image has been very poor. There are nearly 10% products which do not conform to the standards within China, and the ratio of Chinese products which need to be recalled is as high as 65% abroad (2012), which is the largest in the world. As far as toys are concerned, on average there are 20 cases where Chinese manufactures are required to recall their toys every month in EU.
Environmental sustainability is also a challenge. Poorly efficient and irresponsible behavior of manufacturing industry in the past has caused heavy environmental pollution. Apart from fog, haze and heavily polluted underground water, utilization ratio of energy per unit is also very high. Therefore, it is not easy for China to achieve significant decrease in energy and material consumption and pollutant emissions so as to fully implement green manufacturing within 10 years.
Capital and talents need to cooperate
Huge capital expenditure could also become obstacles to the implementation of the planning. Although the central government will provide financial and tax preferences, the capital might be very few compared with the funds required in training, machinery and R & D. Talent supply might also be insufficient. Universities may also fail to provide appropriate training facilities. In addition, during the past 30 years, China has been introducing technology and management structure from abroad by taking advantage of its low cost, which results in weak investment and strength in R & D. Furthermore, China has been depending on and developing resource intensive industry such as steel, aluminum, cement etc. It then results in the fact that technology intensive industries such as solar and wind energy industry are underdeveloped. Therefore, the key lies in how to transform the industrial structure and capacity.
China also faces restrictions in order to expand the market. Traditional manufacturing powers such as USA, Japan and Germany have been dominating the market for medium and high-end products globally. So it is not easy for China to seize market share. And developing countries which have relatively weak financial strength may not be able to support products of these kinds or have insufficient demand.
Upgrading the manufacturing industry is helpful for economic restructuring
In addition to market space, China also faces competition from other countries. Over the past two years, the United States has been implementing plans to attract US companies to move manufacturing industry back to the United States. It is estimated that China’s production cost is only 5% lower than that of the United States at present. But this situation is likely to reverse in the future. Due to low efficiency, high logistics cost and poor technology of China, the production cost in the United States is likely to be 2%-3% lower than that in Chinain 2018. At that time, competitiveness of China’s industry will be further weakened.
Overall, there has being a major adjustment in the pattern of global manufacturing industry: On the one hand, developed countries have carried out “re-industrialization” in order to enhance the competitive advantage of manufacturing after financial crisis; on the other hand, other developing countries expand their international markets with costs lower than China. And it leads to the fact China is “facing a severe two-way challenge”, as is written in Made in China 2025. Successfully overcoming the above challenges and gradually transforming China to a manufacturing giant which is characteristic of high-end products, high quality and environmental protection can benefit industries and enterprises which are related to the ten key areas, in overall, as well ashelp to ease the impact of labor cost increase, environmental pollution, limited resource, excess capacity and slowdown in exports and promote economic restructurings.
Victoria Mio is the Lead Portfolio Manager of Robeco Chinese Equities.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, Flickr. Pictet Asset Management Launches Robotics Fund
Pictet Asset Management, a pioneer in thematic investing, has announced the launch of Pictet-Robotics, one of the first funds of its kind to invest in robotics and artificial intelligence technologies. A Luxembourg Sicav, the fund aims to capitalize on the growth of an industry that is forecast to expand as much as four times faster than the global economy over the next decade.
Advances in IT, such as cloud computing and the emergence of powerful new microprocessors, are revolutionizing robotics and automation technologies, which are expanding beyond the factory floor into our everyday lives. Modern robotic devices are now equipped with a remarkable capacity to sense, gather, process and act on information, endowing them with dexterity, versatility and cognition. Robots that can detect changes in facial expressions and tones of voice are being used in services and security industries. In the health care industry, sophisticated robots already assist surgeons in complex procedures, while in transport smart sensor technology is being deployed in driverless cars.
Karen Kharmandarian, Senior Investment Manager, Thematic Equities, said, “Robots have long been used in factories to automate dangerous, dirty or dull tasks. But the pace of invention is accelerating as robots are becoming indispensable to our professional and personal lives. Companies active in robotics seem bound to enjoy strong growth from this new wave of innovation”.
The Robotics fund is the most recent addition to Pictet Asset Management’s range of thematic strategies which already include, among others, specialist funds in digital communication, security, health and water. Thematic funds allow investors to capitalize on long-term socio-economic trends shaping our world.
The official launch date of Pictet-Robotics is 8th October 2015 and the initial subscription period for the fund is 2-7 October.
The fund is currently registered in the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the UK. It will be available in other countries soon.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Oliver Schnücker. Reacciones exageradas del mercado: el enfoque ‘Episode’ de M&G para encontrar oportunidades
Amundi ETF announces the launch of the first ETF in Europe leveraging the theme of European share buybacks, by tracking the MSCI Europe Equal Weighted Buyback Yield strategy index. The launch represents another innovative expansion of Amundi ETF’s European equity Smart Beta range.
The ETF is designed for investors seeking to capture yield from the European equity market via a return-oriented Smart Beta approach, by providing exposure to companies performing share buybacks, a method of distributing income to shareholders which is likely to grow in Europe.
Share buyback programs allow cash-rich companies to repurchase their own stocks. Already widely used in the US, they should become more popular for European companies as they represent a more efficient use of cash in a low rate environment and give companies more flexibility than dividend programs. Moreover, buyback programs are compelling for investors as they can provide higher returns in a low rate environment.
The MSCI Europe Equal Weighted Buyback Yield strategy index reflects the performance of MSCI Europe securities that have performed buybacks in the previous 12 months . Moreover, this strategy index applies an equal weight methodology, thus increasing diversification and providing a purer exposure to the share buyback theme with a reduced bias.
Amundi ETF is launching this new product in response to client demand, following the launch of its US buyback ETF earlier this year, which prompted interest in a European version based on the same theme. The ETF has a TER of 0,30% and will be made available in Paris and subsequently the major European exchanges.
Valerie Baudson, CEO at Amundi ETF, Indexing and Smart Beta, said: “This innovative ETF adds to our broad mono and multi Smart Beta range and reinforces the positioning of Amundi as a leading innovative player in the European ETF market.”
BNP Paribas Investment Partners (BNPP IP) has announced a series of new appointments within its Institutional business line, headed by David Kiddie, in order to enhance investment expertise, research and thought leadership capabilities.
Guy Williams has been appointed Chief Investment Officer for BNPP IP’s Institutional business. Guy will be responsible for promoting collaboration across investment teams, and developing investment strategy and market views. Formerly Chief Investment Officer of BNPP IP’s global fixed income affiliate Fischer, Francis, Trees & Watts (‘FFTW’), Guy successfully developed BNPP IP’s global fixed income platform across a range of strategies, and with three decades of experience he is ideally suited to this new role.
Joining Guy’s team are Senior Investment Strategist Daniel Morris and Senior Economist Richard Barwell. In their newly-created roles, Daniel and Richard will promote collaboration between investment teams and formulate alpha-generating investment views across all asset classes.
Morris’ wide-ranging experience encompasses advising clients and providing investment recommendations, as well as offering a strategic perspective to senior management and portfolio managers. He is a frequent commentator in print and broadcast media.
Barwell’s background is as a monetary economist within investment banking and central banking, covering both the UK and Eurozone economies. His thought-provoking insights combine academic rigour, strong analytical skills and deep knowledge with an innovative approach to macroeconomic issues, and his work has been published widely.
Replacing Guy as Chief Investment Officer and Head of Institutional Fixed Income is Dominick DeAlto, who will be instrumental in further strengthening BNPP IP’s fixed income platform, which currently has over 75 investment professionals and manages 40 investment strategies ranging from traditional to alternative fixed income, as well as driving its investment and commercial success. Dominick, who prior to this appointment was Head of Global Multi-Sector and Sector Rotation, has considerable experience managing a range of strategies, making him well placed for today’s changing fixed income environment, which lends itself to the development of contemporary investment strategies in order to address the requirements of clients.
Dominick has also made two changes to his team, with Timothy Johnson being appointed Head of Total Return Multi-Sector, which is a combination of the Global Multi-Sector and Global Sovereign teams, and Dan Singleman joining as Senior Portfolio Manager in the Sector Rotation Alpha team.
Timothy joined FFTW in early 2013 and has over two decades of experience, gained within both asset management and central banking. The Total Return Multi-Sector includes global aggregate, global unconstrained and global sovereign portfolios.
Dan has spent most of his career within BNPP IP. For eight years he was a credit analyst and then portfolio manager, before leaving last year to take up a broader asset allocation role and now re-joining BNPP IP to pursue a similar opportunity.
David Kiddie, Head of Institutional business at BNP Paribas Investment Partners, comments:
“I am very pleased to welcome such seasoned professionals. These appointments are designed to further strengthen our investment culture, as well as to enhance our research and investment capability. The strength of our investment culture is one of the key drivers of our future success and these appointments are a further step towards developing an environment in which our business can flourish, helping us to achieve our goal of offering our clients a world class investment proposition.”
