Photo: Luigi Bellini / Courtesy Photo. “These are Interesting Times for Private Debt Transactions and the European Alternative Loan Market”
From the 28th of September to the 5th of October, a team of ACPI Investments specialists will be visiting Chile to discuss opportunities in European private debt. In an exclusive interview with Funds Society, Luigi Bellini, partner and Head of the Institutional and Family Office platform at ACPI, talks about investment opportunities offered by the European alternative lending market. According to Bellini,the difference between the demand for loan financing and loan availability is particularly acute in Europe, where banks have traditionally played a major role in the capital market.
“Following the global financial crisis, bank lending remains constrained, and there are borrowers with good characteristics who wish to borrow. Meanwhile investors are looking for fixed income strategies that offer uncorrelated returns with low volatility” said Bellini.
ACPI is active in the private loan market, targeting asset-backed loans in the range USD10-30mn with a 2-3 year maturity. ACPI looks for relationship-sourced loans with short maturity and good asset backing as it believes these offer an attractive risk reward profile. Having being active in private loans for some years, ACPI now intends to launch a private loan fund to capitalize on the opportunity in the European private loan space.
“We have put a lot of thought into how to structure the fund”, said Bellini. “We believe prospective investors will respond positively to our approach”
The Latin American Market
As regards Latin America, ACPI has placed a lot of emphasis and effort in the region, and will continue to do so in the coming years. In a few days, Bellini and his team will be visiting Chile, one of the region’s most mature markets, where the firm has an established group of clients. “Chile is a market that has traditionally been more influenced by the United States, now is a good time to start talking about European markets, and there is quite a bit of appetite for private transactions” said Bellini.
ACPI Investments also has relationships with investors from Mexico and Brazil and has two other markets in the region within its radar screen: Colombia and Peru.
ACPI Investments’ Background
ACPI Investments Limited (“IL”) was established in 2001 and is headquartered in London, specializes in wealth management, taking care of the financial interests of some 95 families worldwide. ACPI offers a wide range of investment opportunities including via its managed funds and private equity and private debt.
ACPI Investments Group Limited manages more than 3.5 billion dollars in assets through a number of subsidiaries. It has offices in South Africa and Jersey and in India via a joint venture with a local company.
ACPI IL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom and registered with the SEC.
ACPI IM Limited is based in Jersey and authorised by the JFSC.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: geralt / Pixabay. Afores Reduce by Almost 4% Their Exposure to International Equities in 2016
Although assets under management between December 2015 and August 2016 show a growth of 10%, half explained by the bi-monthly contributions made by workers affiliated; in the same period, is observed, a reduction in international equity investments and an increase in government debt (with lower duration) at the aggregate level.
The environment of volatility that has characterized this year, has led the Afores to show prudence and diversification in investments both in equity and also fixed income, and this situation has been reflected in a reduction in international equity positions and lower duration in debt instruments.
According to Consar, Assets Under Management ended August at 2,784,587 million pesos (mp) amounting to 148 billion dollars. Between December 2015 and August 2016 assets grew 243,624 mp, equivalent to 10%.
The resources invested in government debt in December 2015 was 50.2% and by August 2016 this percentage increased by 4.6% reaching 54.7%. This growth is largely explained by the reduction of investments in international equities from 16.2 to 12.6% reflecting a contraction of 3.6%. Domestic equities remained virtually unchanged, going from 6.4 to 6.6%
Investments in government bonds have also shown prudence and so far this year, a reduction of three months in the weighted average maturity to be added to the reduction of 12 months in 2015. Currently the Afores at the aggregate level are investing at 11.6 years. It is noteworthy that this indicator can be distorted by the derivative positions that the Afores that are allowed to use them keep.
In the case of investments in international equities, lower amount and greater diversification is observed among the 19 countries and global indexes that invest Afores.
Between December 2015 and August 2016 a contraction of 61,661 mp (-15%) was observed in international equity investment to finish August at 350,858 mp, equivalent to 18.6 billion dollars.
Regarding the weighting in international equity between the second quarter of 2015 and the second quarter of 2016, the weight of investments in the United States declined from 45% to 37% which means a reduction of 8%; while the weight of global indices rose from 22% to 31% which means an increase of 9%. In reviewing the list of countries in which the Afores invest, four Afores diversified between 1 and 4 countries and global indices; 5 Afores have 8; one Afore 13 and another 19. Pensionissste only invests in one country; Inbursa in two; Coppel three including global indices; Principal four; Azteca, Banamex, Invercap, Metlife and XXI-Banorte 8; while Profuturo 13 and Sura 19.
Nowadays it prevails a complicated environment for which it can be expected that this prudence and diversification by the Afores will continue, where the question is whether this defensive environment will also be reflected in the participation of Afores in new issues as for example CKDs, for which the pipeline includes about 20.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrGuy Stern, Head of Multi-Asset Investing.. Standard Life Investments Launches Enhanced-Diversification Multi-Asset Fund
Standard Life Investments, the global investment manager, has launched the Enhanced-Diversification Multi-Asset Fund (EDMA) in response to a growing client demand for multi-asset growth funds that manage downside risk.
EDMA is part of its multi-asset range for investors who want to balance capital growth against volatility in financial markets. With EDMA, the fund manager aims to generate equity-type returns over the market cycle (typically five to seven years in duration) but with only two-thirds of equity market risk.
Guy Stern, Head of Multi-Asset Investing, explained “the Fund differs from many traditional multi-asset growth approaches. EDMA holds a range of market return investments (such as equities, bonds and listed real estate); however, we also use enhanced-diversification strategies which seek to provide additional sources of return and high levels of portfolio diversification“.
“By taking relative value positions as well as making investments in the currency and interest rate markets, we can develop risk relationships that are quite different from traditional investments. These types of investments are valuable when constructing a diversified multi-asset portfolio as we would expect them to limit downside risk during market falls”.
EDMA is co-managed by Jason Hepner, Scott Smith and James Esland and benefits from the expertise of SLI’s established and award-winning multi-asset investing team. The Fund is a Luxembourg registered SICAV and is a sister fund to the Enhanced-Diversification Growth Fund OEIC launched in November 2013.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: alobos Life. LarrainVial AM and UBP Strike Business Deal
The asset management division of Swiss group Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) has entered into a strategic agreement with Chilean boutique LarrainVial Asset Management.
According to the terms of the deal, UBP’s asset management team will be sub‐advising on a European equity mutual fund registered in Chile and managed by LarrainVial AM.
At the same time, LarrainVial AM’s expertise on Latin American equity and fixed income will be leveraged by UBP to support its global emerging markets capabilities.
LarrainVial AM is a non‐bank asset manager based in Chile, with approximately $3.5bn (€3.1bn) in assets under management, providing a range of Latin American equity and fixed income strategies.
UBP held CHF113.5bn (€103.6bn) in assets under management as at 30 June 2016, of which CHF24bn (€21.9bn) are managed by its investment arm.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Viri G. Is the Fed Bluffing?
In the days prior to the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at the end of August, senior Fed officials started to make the case that markets had become too sanguine about further rate hikes this year. Janet Yellen’s conference opener restated the Federal Open Market Committee’s tightening bias, saying “the FOMC continues to anticipate that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will be appropriate over time.” There was no softening or policy pivot here. In fact, she added that “the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.” That was the most forceful endorsement of another rate hike from Yellen yet.
The rest of the conference, titled ‘Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future’, produced few new insights. The agenda focused on policy efficiency, especially what can be done to improve the pass-through of monetary policy to broader financial markets, and emphasized greater coordination between fiscal and monetary policy. Other speakers argued for maintaining the large Fed balance sheet for the foreseeable future and affirmed Chair Yellen’s view that the current set of policy tools – including the ability to pay interest on excess reserves, large scale asset purchases, and explicit forward guidance – are sufficient to deal with future downturns.
Yellen even provided model-based estimates showing quantitative easing and forward guidance would be as effective as allowing policy rates to fall deeply into negative territory in a future recession. That’s as clear a repudiation as you will get from her of the negative interest rate policy followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ). One presenter at the symposium, Marvin Goodfriend, did promote the merits of unencumbering interest rate policy at the zero bound. He argued that the current low levels of nominal bond yields leave little room to push short rates much below longterm interest rates. Yet, for such a policy to function effectively, we would have to seriously reduce Americans’ preference to use cash for transactions, which would resist negative rates. It’s hard to see negative interest rates as anything but an interesting thought experiment for the Fed.
Markets moved sideways
Reflecting the uncertainty about US monetary policy, both equity and the broader fixed income markets trended sideways last month. Both the S&P 500 and the Barclays Aggregate index were essentially unchanged in August; incidentally, both are up about 6% for the year so far.
What still worked in August was the reach for yield. The Barclays High Yield index gained 2%, pushing its year-to-date performance to over 14%. Also not surprising in an environment of possible Fed rate hikes was that financials were the best performing sector in the S&P 500 and the US dollar gained a few tenths of a percent against other major currencies.
Fundamental contradictions
Janet Yellen’s manifestly improved confidence has some backing from US fundamentals. While economic growth in the second quarter was revised down to just 1.1%, much of the weakness was due to a decline in inventories, typically a transitory headwind to growth. In fact, private domestic demand – consumption, housing, and business investment – increased at a more impressive 3% rate, up from just 1.1% in the first three months. Job growth has rebounded, too. After averaging just 84,000 new jobs in April and May, the following two months saw that trend increase to 274,000. Most forecasters are looking for a solid 2.7% growth rate in the current quarter; our forecast, at 3.2%, is even more optimistic. So, the Fed’s central case of a moderately growing economy that will continue to push the unemployment rate lower remains strong.
Still, not all the evidence is pointing in the same direction. The two main US consumer confidence surveys have been on diverging trajectories in recent months. One showed consumers feel their current circumstances haven’t been that good since the summer of 2007, which suggests the pace of consumer spending should accelerate. The other survey has deteriorated below last year’s average, pointing more to weaker spending. It’s a similar story on the manufacturing side: One of the two major purchasing managers’ indexes supports a tentative reacceleration, while the other just indicated a renewed contraction in manufacturing activity.
The Fed may not pull the trigger this year
Those contradictions are not enough to change the Fed’s central, moderate growth case. But they likely sow enough doubt about how sustainable a summer growth rebound is. Doubts like these are what persuaded the FOMC in each of this year’s five meetings not to raise rates. We think that is essentially what the committee faces when it meets later this month. With inflation still well below the Fed’s 2% target, the FOMC is under no pressure to raise rates other than the pressure it has created itself.
After the December 2015 rate hike, the FOMC still provided forward guidance of four additional increases this year. In March the committee cut that guidance to just two. The second half of the year should look similar to 2015, when the FOMC cut guidance in September from two to just one rate hike for the year and delivered that hike at the December meeting. The added complication this year is, of course, November’s presidential election, which may lead to an increase in economic policy uncertainty. That’s the main reason our forecast schedule has the next rate hike penciled in for the first quarter of 2017 and not December 2016.
Another rate hike will do very little to change the outlook for Treasuries. The Fed may be contemplating further policy tightening, but the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are still looking for policy easing. That should keep yields low in much of the rest of the developed world, which serves as a valuation anchor for longer dated US Treasuries. However, US inflation trends are gradually improving behind the scenes. After averaging close to 0% for most of 2015, it took just three months for headline inflation to jump to a new 1% trend earlier this year. The same base effects are likely to push next year’s average above 2%. That should modestly pull up longer term Treasury yields. We still expect 10-year Treasuries to trade around 1.5% at the end of this year and around 2% at the end of 2017.
Markus Schomer is managing director y Chief Economistde PineBridge Investments.
This information is for educational purposes only and is not intended to serve as investment advice. This is not an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to purchase any investment product or security. Any opinions provided should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Any opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements are speculative in nature; valid only as of the date hereof and are subject to change. PineBridge Investments is not soliciting or recommending any action based on this information.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Dell Inc. Five Things Millennial Women Need to Know About Their Money
According to Joslyn G. Ewart, Founding Principal of Entrust Financial and writter of Balancing Act: Wealth Management Straight Talk for Women, millennial women have redefined what success is and they work hard for their assets.
As women of wealth, what do they need to know about taking care of their money? In her opinion, first and foremost affluent millennial women need to take charge of their money. Whether they earned it, inherited it, or received a substantial divorce settlement, the decision to take responsibility for their wealth is paramount. She presents five tips to do so:
Take charge of your wealth planning.
Avoid the “Just sign here, honey!” syndrome, as described above when that special someone is given authority over your personal finances.
Consider the benefits of finding a competent wealth advisor to help you achieve all that is important to you with respect to your money.
Make a spending plan.
“Get started.”
“I predict a couple of phenomenal outcomes when affluent millennial women choose to take charge of their money. The first is they will be better able to take care of themselves and their families no matter what curve balls life throws their way. The second is that women are charitably minded, more so than men, and often serve as a catalyst for social change, change that benefits not only their families but all of us.” Says Ewart.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Luckycavey, Flickr, Creative Commons. Brexit May Prove Not to Be a Watershed
The latest round of central bank interest-rate cuts and quantitative-easing extensions will bring some relief to asset managers suffering in the wake of the Brexit vote by further strengthening the case for buying into funds instead of holding cash, according to the latest issue of The Cerulli Edge-European Monthly Product Trends Edition.
While global analytics firm Cerulli Associates is confident that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union is not a game changer, it acknowledges that the fund groups worst affected by the summer’s outflows may have to increase marketing efforts to convince investors to return and to find new investors.
“Most firms are not expecting the outflows, which admittedly were very large, to be magically reversed in the next month. However, they have already stabilized and most industry watchers expect the second half of the year to show a more positive trend,” says Barbara Wall, Europe managing director at Cerulli Associates, adding that the resultant shakeout may intensify the pressure on fees.
Cerulli does not believe that the passporting and UCITS-labelling rights of UK firms with funds domiciled in Luxembourg and Dublin, but managed out of London, will be withdrawn. Any new conditions attached to these rights will, it says, be minimal.
“The EU would have little incentive to deprive itself of the expertise of Europe’s biggest financial center, or to risk restrictions being placed on the export of EU goods and services into the UK,” says Wall, who believes that providers of passive vehicles may be the biggest beneficiaries as the market returns to some sort of normality.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: DonkeyHotey. With Election Looming, Fundamentals and Fed Matter More for Investors
The United States presidential election in November will be historic in many ways, but the long-term implications of either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump winning will likely have less of an impact than many market participants are anticipating. If history is any guide, election results have had a relatively minimal impact on longer-term U.S. or global equity returns, according to Bloomberg data and the BlackRock Investment Institute. It also hasn’t seemed to matter much whether the president belongs to the Republican or Democratic Party.
Instead, factors such as inflation, interest rates and global growth are much more important to markets. And while these areas are a focal point for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, they remain largely outside of presidential control, except to the extent that the president nominates (and the Senate approves) the Fed chairman and governors.
Nevertheless, we do expect some short-term market volatility leading up to the election and will keep an eye on certain sectors — health care, financials and infrastructure, for example — which thus far have been hot topics for the candidates. Since real policy changes wouldn’t likely occur until 2017 (and beyond), this short-term volatility may create more attractive entry points in select areas that appear attractive.
The potential for higher volatility comes against a backdrop of an unusually quiet month for U.S. stocks. We expect volatility to pick up from these extremely low levels and the election rhetoric may just be the trigger.
Careful with health care and financials
Although volatility is likely to persist across the broad market, specific sectors may be particularly vulnerable, or conversely, offer some opportunity. Among those to be cautious on is health care. The sector has historically underperformed in election years (source: Bloomberg), due in large part to concerns over pricing pressure on the biotech and pharmaceuticals subsectors. The latest headlines over EpiPen pricing have renewed this focus and brought with it increased volatility.
Over the short term, we don’t believe that the election and a new president will have a big impact on health care stocks’ fundamentals. Given the two candidates’ opposing views on health care, however, there could well be longer-term implications on policy changes. But remember that implementing any real, significant changes to the health care system will need to pass through Congress and will likely take years, not months. That said, volatility and fundamentals aren’t always aligned and a selloff triggered by regulation rhetoric may create selective buying opportunities in the near term.
Financials could also be impacted in a similar fashion. Again, meaningful regulations could take time, but campaign rhetoric may increase volatility. The path of the Fed’s rate hike policy will likely have a bigger effect on the sector’s fundamentals. While we can expect one more interest rate hike this year given Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s most recent comments at Jackson Hole, financials may benefit from widening net interest margins (the spread between what banks make on loans and what they pay for deposits.)
More attention on infrastructure
So where can investors find potential opportunities? Perhaps infrastructure spending, a rare area of agreement between the two candidates (although they disagree on how to fund such spending). As the campaign debate continues to discuss job creation and economic growth, there has been a renewed investor focus on infrastructure spending and transportation. Additionally, Fed Governor John C. Williams of San Francisco recently published a paper suggesting a shifting focus from monetary policy to fiscal policy and an emphasis on economic growth and a higher inflation target. This likely bodes well for the sector. But keep in mind: There could be significant delay from a proposal of greater infrastructure spending to passage of a bill and actual disbursement of money.
Some strategies to consider
While this election season is likely to be filled with surprises, investors may also want to consider strategies that aim to minimize equity market volatility and potentially provide downside protection. Or take a look at quality companies, characterized by high profitability, steady earnings and low leverage, which have typically outperformed when market volatility rises, according to a paper by Richard Sloan.
Investors interested in health care and financials may want to consider the iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH) and the iShares U.S. Financials ETF (IYF). To gain access to infrastructure, consider the iShares Global Infrastructure ETF (IGF), the iShares Transportation Average ETF (IYT) or the iShares U.S. Industrials ETF (IYJ). For minimum volatility and quality, take a look at the iShares EDGE MSCI Min Vol USA ETF (USMV) or the iShares Edge MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF (QUAL).
Build on Insight, by BlackRock written by Heidi Richardson
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“Reforms may create opportunities to capture economic profits being ceded by banks” say Christian Stracke, global head of the credit research and Tom Collier, product manager – alternative investment strategies at PIMCO, in their latest insight.
It’s been nearly a decade since the global financial crisis prompted an onslaught of regulations intended to abolish excessive risk-taking and make the financial system safer, they remember. “Yet the implementation of reforms – and their disruptive effect on financial business models – will peak only over the next few years.” They state.
As Dodd-Frank and Basel regulations come into force and a further wave of regulatory reform is announced, they believe banks will exit more non-core businesses, specific funding gaps will become more acute and dislocations between public and private markets will become more frequent. “Each will create investment opportunities for less constrained and patient capital to capture economic profits being ceded by banks.”
The experts highlight that banks are facing higher capital requirements, higher loss provisioning and higher compliance costs – pressures that they believe will prompt banks to exit more non-core businesses. “The result, we believe, will be more acute funding gaps and more frequent dislocations between public and private markets – all of which will create investment opportunities for less constrained and more patient capital.”
You can read the full article in the following link.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Carl Aufrett (left), Emmanuel Bourdeix (centre) e Isaac Chebar (rigth), portfolio managers at Natixis. Two Distinct Ways To Diversify With European Equities
Growth and portfolio diversification potential – along with attractive valuations, euro vs. US dollar and accommodative monetary policy – are reasons why investors may find European equities attractive. Consider these two distinct equity approaches provided by Natixis Global Asset Management.
High-conviction European equity investing
Award-winning European specialist boutique DNCA Finance has followed a consistent investment process based on fundamental active management for more than 15 years. Their philosophy remains focused on high-conviction European securities with an eye toward long-term risk-adjusted returns.
Seeking value across European companies
European Value team manager Isaac Chebar believes DNCA’s rigorous stock selection through fundamental analysis across all market capitalizations is a key differentiator for the firm.
“Consistency in the investment process throughout various market environments, in-depth analysis and special attention to volatility control is integral to our success,” said Chebar. Being benchmark agnostic and focused on mid- and long-term performance is critical, too.
Growth momentum in European equities
European Growth team manager Carl Aufrett thinks European equities remain one of the most attractive asset classes. “We take a highly active approach to find attractive growth potential among quality companies. Most of the companies we follow, we believe, have little or no correlation to the European economic cycle and tend to follow more independent growth trends,” said Auffret. These companies are European, but they generate a large amount of their sales internationally.
More information on DNCA’s high-conviction value and growth approaches can be accessed at www.ngam.natixis.com.
Low volatility European equity investing
Seeyond employs an active model-driven approach that seeks to capitalize on risk to create value. Its minimum variance approach is an investment style designed to provide equity market exposure but with less risk than the overall market by investing in low volatility stocks.
“We believe uncertain market conditions are driving a growing demand for minimum variance equity strategies,” said Emmanuel Bourdeix, head of Seeyond and Co-CIO at Natixis Asset Management. These minimum variance strategies focus on investing in low-volatility stocks that have little correlation to each other. They typically therefore have lower volatility than the market capitalization-weighted indices used by many investors. “I think many investors would be surprised that the most volatile stocks have typically underperformed the least volatile stocks over time,” said Bourdeix.
Low volatility doesn’t mean minimal returns
According to traditional portfolio theory, taking less risk by purchasing low-volatility stocks should reduce performance. But Seeyond’s research shows that low-volatility stocks have generated about the same long-term returns as the main indices, but with far less volatility. Why is that? “We believe this anomaly is directly linked to the bias in the financial behavior of equity investors. They tend to overpay for the ’glamour stocks,’ overpaying for discovering the next big tech name or rising star, at the expense of the so-called ’boring stocks.’ And typically, over a full market cycle, these low-volatility stocks tend to outperform the overall equity market.”
With volatility capable of rising at any time, it’s important to remember that there are ways to make the equity component of portfolios more resilient.
For more on Seeyond’s low-volatility approach to European equity investing, go to www.ngam.natixis.com.
*Seeyond is a brand of Natixis Asset Management, operated in the U.S. through Natixis Asset Management U.S., LLC.
Risks: Equity securities are volatile and can decline significantly in response to broad market and economic conditions.
In Latin America: This material is provided by NGAM S.A., a Luxembourg management company that is authorized by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and is incorporated under Luxembourg laws and registered under n. B 115843. Registered office of NGAM S.A.: 2 rue Jean Monnet, L-2180 Luxembourg, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. The above referenced entities are business development units of Natixis Global Asset Management, the holding company of a diverse line-up of specialized investment management and distribution entities worldwide. The investment management subsidiaries of Natixis Global Asset Management conduct any regulated activities only in and from the jurisdictions in which they are licensed or authorized. Their services and the products they manage are not available to all investors in all jurisdictions.
In the United States: Provided by NGAM Distribution, L.P., 399 Boylston St., Boston, MA 02116. Natixis Global Asset Management consists of Natixis Global Asset Management, S.A., NGAM Distribution, L.P., NGAM Advisors, L.P., NGAM S.A., and NGAM S.A.’s business development units across the globe, each of which is an affiliate of Natixis Global Asset Management, S.A. The affiliated investment managers and distribution companies are each an affiliate of Natixis Global Asset Management, S.A.
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