iShares Launches the First Climate Risk-Adjusted Government Bond ETF

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. iShare amplía sus fondos sostenibles con el lanzamiento de un ETF UCITS de bonos climáticos

iShares has launched the first climate risk-adjusted government bond ETF in the market: the iShares € Govt Bond Climate UCITS ETF. The strategy tracks the FTSE Climate Risk-Adjusted European Monetary Union (EMU) Government Bond Index (Climate EGBI), launched by FTSE Russel last January.

The ETF offers access to Eurozone government bonds while seeking to provide a higher exposure to countries less exposed to climate change risks and a lower exposure to countries that are more exposed, explained FTSE Russel on a press release. As for the index, it is designed for investors with an increased focus on climate performance of their government bond portfolios and is the result of close collaboration with Blackrock’s team over recent months.

The Climate EGBI incorporates a tilting methodology that adjusts index weights according to each country’s relative exposure to climate risk, with respect to resilience and preparedness to the risks of climate change. This includes an assessment of the expected economic impact of transitioning to greenhouse gas emissions levels aligned with the Paris Accord target of less than 2°C by 2050, known as transition risk. An assessment of the physical risk of climate change such as sea level rises and the resiliency of countries to tackle these risks is also assessed.

“The decision by a leading investor and ETF provider such as Blackrock to license FTSE Russell’s Advanced Climate EGBI for an ETF listing marks an important juncture in climate themed investing in European fixed income markets. Both institutional and private asset owners are increasingly including climate objectives in their decision making and are adjusting fixed income portfolios based on climate concerns. We expect growing interest from investors in this area”, said Arne Staal, Global Head of Research and Product Management at FTSE Russell.

Meanwhile, Brett Olson, Head of iShares fixed income, EMEA, at BlackRock, pointed out that sovereign issuers are facing increasing pressure to meet sustainability criteria, as more investors consider the ESG profile of their fixed income portfolios. “Until today, investors have had very limited options for cost effective exposure to government bonds that incorporate climate risk. This launch is yet another example of our commitment to providing investors with more choice to build sustainable portfolios”, he added.

Stefano Caleffi Named New Head of ETF Sales for Southern Europe at HSBC Global AM

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Foto cedidaStefano Caleffi, New Head of ETF Sales for Southern Europe at HSBC Global AM . Stefano Caleffi, New Head of ETF Sales for Southern Europe at HSBC Global AM

HSBC Global Asset Management has expanded its ETF sales team with the appointment of Stefano Caleffi as Head of ETF Sales for Southern Europe, a newly created role.

Based in Milan, he will be responsible for driving HSBC Global AM’s ETF sales and business development efforts across Italy, Spain and Portugal. Caleffi will report to Olga de Tapia, Global Head of ETF Sales.

The asset manager announced in a press release that this appointment follows the ones of Phillip Knueppel as Head of ETF Sales for Austria, Germany and Switzerland and Marc Hall as Head of ETF Sales for Switzerland.

De Tapia commented that Caleffi’s appointment is another milestone in their plans to grow their ETF business in Europe. “His extensive client-facing and ETF industry experience make him the perfect candidate to drive our sales effort in Italy, Spain and Portugal”, she added.

Caleffi has over 15 years’ experience in the investment management industry. Most recently, he was Head of ETF Business Development Italy, Iberia and Israel at Invesco. Prior to that, he was responsible for Southern Europe distribution at Source. Before joining Source, he worked in the equities division of Credit Suisse First Boston.

Calvert Research and Management Launches the Calvert Institute for Responsible Investing

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. still pandemia

Calvert Research and Management, a subsidiary of Eaton Vance, announced the launch of the Calvert Institute for Responsible Investing, an affiliated research institute dedicated to driving positive change by advancing understanding and promoting best practices in responsible investing.

Initially launched in North America, asset owners and investors in Europe and Asia will now have access to Calvert Institute’s work by connection to its online hub hosting its latest research as well as dedicated client events and webinars. “Through research, education and collective action, the Calvert Institute seeks to direct the power of the financial markets increasingly to addressing the leading global challenges of our time, including environmental degradation, climate change, racial inequality and social injustice”, said the firm in a press release.

As a complement to its internal research and education programs, the institute will partner with academic organizations, industry groups and other like-minded investors to create and sponsor third-party research focused on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues of concern to responsible investors.

“For many years, Calvert has been a global leader in responsible investing and a catalyst for positive change through our research and engagement efforts. By creating the Calvert Institute, we broaden the scope of our mission and programs in support of responsible investors and society as a whole”, commented John Streur, President and Chief Executive Officer.

Meanwhile, Anne Matusewicz, a director of the Calvert Institute, said that they are “thrilled” to have this opportunity to contribute to the further development of responsible investing. “We want to help investors understand the role they can play in promoting positive change. Examining race and injustice, climate change and other critical issues will allow us to amplify voices that challenge the status quo based on research results and educate individuals and institutions at various stages of their responsible investment journey”, she added.

The Calvert Institute will continue Calvert’s well-established practice of working with leading academic professionals and supporting innovative research done at academic institutions, governance organizations and specialist research firms.  Current research projects include exploring and assessing forms of corporate governance, human capital management, inequality and the financial materiality of gender and racial diversity, ESG integration, public finance, sustainable practices and the global energy transition.

Mexican Pension Funds’ Diversification with Global Alternative Investments Continues

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Photo:Pxhere CC0. Foto:

In the first nine months of the year, 7 GPs have issued 20 private equity vehicles that are listed on the two stock exchanges in Mexico (BMV and BIVA). In total, 3 CKDs have been issued that invest in Mexico in the infrastructure, private equity, and credit sectors; while 4 GPs have issued 17 CERPIs to invest globally in the fund of funds sector.

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The capital committed to invest globally amounts to 1.924 million dollars (md), while the resources that will be invested in Mexico are 882 md to give a total of 2.806 million dollars that represent 9% of the 31.538 million dollars of committed capital of all CKDs and CERPIs. Since 2018, when global investments were allowed through CERPIs, the trend has been for global diversification, hence the predominant issuance of CERPIs rather than of CKDs. Of the committed Capital, the called capital represents 57% where the called capital of the CKDs dominates with respect to the CERPIs.

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All these issues were made before September 7, the date on which CONSAR published changes to the regulation of the AFOREs through the so-called “Circular Unica Financiera” also known as CUF.

Regulatory changes seek for CKDs and CERPIs to incorporate elements that offer certainty in terms of risk management, investment, and governance policies and, above all, guarantee that this type of investment does not represent an excessive cost for workers. Therefore, these changes are expected to slow down the pace of issuances in the coming months.

A total of 25 CKDs and CERPIs have been identified in the pipeline.

  • From 2017 to September 30, 14 began their legal issuance process in 2019; 6 in 2020 and 5 between 2017 and 2018. In general, the issuance process takes two years and the exceptions are those that manage to leave within a year of starting their legal issuance process.
  • 14 are doing their procedure at BIVA and 11 at the BMV.
  • 9 are CERPIs and 16 CKDs.
  • 10 are frequent issuers of CKDs and CERPIs and 15 are new.
  • There are 12 that want to issue in the real estate sector (4 CERPIs), 6 in private equity (4 CERPIs); 2 debt; 2 Infraestructure; 2 in other sectors and 1 fund of funds (CERPI).

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The AFOREs have 201.089 million dollars of assets under management as of August 31, of which 11.804 million dollars are investments in CKDs, CERPIs and structured (5.9% of the portfolio). Currently, investments in CKDs represent 4.8% of assets under management and only 1.1% are investments in global alternatives (CERPIs). If called capital is considered, the percentages go to 6.7% in local investments (CKDs) and 4.8% in global investments (CERPIs) to represent 11.5% with the current value of assets under management.

The diversification sought by the AFOREs will lead to the continued growth of the issuance of CERPIs.

Column by Arturo Hanono

Prima AFP Becomes the First Pension Fund in Perú to Adopt the CFA Institute Asset Manager Code

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Foto cedidaRenzo Rici, CEO Prima AFP. Prima AFP se convierte en la primera AFP en Perú en adoptar el Código de Gestor de inversiones (AMC) de CFA Institute

CFA Institute, the global association of investment professionals, announces that Prima AFP has become the first pension fund in Perú to claim compliance with the CFA Institute Asset Manager Code™. Prima AFP is the pension fund manager of Credicorp Group, the largest financial services holding company in Perú. The adoption marks another important milestone for the Asset Manager Code in Latin America, with Prima AFP joining other major pension funds and asset managers across the region and around the world.

The Asset Manager Code clearly outlines the ethical and professional responsibilities of organizations that manage assets on behalf of their clients. For investors, the code provides a benchmark for the behavior that should be expected from asset managers and offers a higher level of confidence in the organizations that adopt the code. 

Many organizations have their own conduct standards in place to guide their work, but it can be difficult for clients to compare different codes or understand the level of commitment toward protecting their interests. Clients can use the CFA Institute Asset Manager Code to identify organizations that commit to a common foundation of ethical principles.

“As the newly appointed Chair of the Board, I am pleased to see this exciting development in my home country of Perú,” said Daniel Gamba, CFA, Chair of the Board of Governors, CFA Institute. “The Asset Manager Code provides a common, globally recognized benchmark for pension funds to strive for and Prima AFP is leading the way. I look forward to seeing more adoptions by pension funds and other asset managers across the country and the region.”

“It is at the core of our mission to advance ethics, professional standards of practice, and market integrity in the investment management industry,” said Karyn Vincent, Senior Head, Global Industry Standards, CFA Institute. “We applaud Prima AFP, and all organizations that have adopted the code, for displaying a steadfast and tangible commitment to professional ethics and putting investors first. When we put investors at the heart of all we do, we can rebuild trust in the profession and benefit society at large.”

“Investors deserve the highest level of ethical and professional conduct from the firms and individuals with whom they trust their investments,” said Renzo Ricci, CEO of Prima AFP. “Adopting the Asset Manager Code is a demonstration of our commitment to our clients and a demonstration of how we protect their interests. We are proud to join the distinguished list of firms and pension funds worldwide that are committed to putting investor needs and interests first.”

The Asset Manager Code is grounded in the ethical principles of CFA Institute and the CFA® Program, and requires that managers commit to the following professional standards:

· To act in a professional and ethical manner at all times
· To act for the benefit of clients
· To act with independence and objectivity
· To act with skill, competence, and diligence
· To communicate with clients in a timely and accurate manner
· To uphold the rules governing capital markets 

More than 1,000 firms worldwide claim compliance with the Code including Ariel Investments, BlackRock, Janus Capital Management, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Afore XXI Banorte, BBVA Asset Management Mexico, Credicorp Capital Asset Management, Itaú Asset Management and Principal Afore.

Prima AFP has been Credicorp Group’s pension fund manager for the Peruvian market for 15 years. It currently manages the funds of 2.3 million people affiliated with the Private Pension System (SPP) of Perú, equivalent to 30.9% of the market. At the end of August, its portfolio was valued at more than 13 billion dollars

Alken Expands LatAm Presence Through Deal with AIS Financial Group

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Alken expande su presencia en Latinoamérica gracias a la firma de un acuerdo con AIS Financial Group

The Alken Fund, managed by Alken AM, through its Luxembourg Manco, AFFM S.A. and Swiss AIS Financial Group, have announced the signing of a Strategic Agreement to benefit from AIS market presence in Latin America with the aim to expand the penetration of Alken funds in such region.

The deal will allow AIS Financial Group investor base to access a couple of Alken´s UCITS funds, including the Alken European Opportunities, managed by Nicolas Walewski and co-managed by Marc Festa, and the Alken Income Opportunities, managed by Antony Vallée and Robin Dunmall. 

The Alken European Opportunities has a solid long track record in European Opportunities with a fundamental / bottomup unconstrained, concentrated, low rotation approach.  The Alken Income Opportunities invests in global corporate bonds, with a bottom-up approach including low-delta convertibles, straight bonds, hybrids, and any debt instrument issued by quoted companies. With a flexible breakdown High-Yield / Investment Grade, the fund aims to generate at least a 6% yield per annum.

 AIS is an independent, client service oriented investment boutique, that provides advice on investment solutions with a special focus on structured products and funds. With this deal, AIS further strengthens its brand and reputation, enlarging its product and service offering.

 All entities are enthusiastic for the opportunities this deal will entail, and look forward to a successful partnership.

 

Three Policy Differences for Investors to Watch in the US Presidential Race

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Las tres diferencias políticas que los inversores deberían vigilar en la cerra presidencial de Estados Unidos

President Trump and former Vice President Biden have notably different views about corporate taxes, energy and US-China trade, which may have a substantial impact on markets and portfolios.

As the November 3 US presidential election draws closer, the race is tightening between both candidates. While much is at stake in this election cycle, the three policy areas noted below could have a large impact on the markets and portfolio allocations. Investors should plan to adjust portfolios depending on the direction of policy after Election Day though emerging technology and infrastructure may be winners regardless of the outcome.

1. Corporate tax policy

While Mr. Trump’s corporate tax policies are ostensibly more market-friendly, Mr. Biden’s plan may be offset by other growth initiatives. He wants to reverse the Trump administration’s 2017 tax cuts, raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% (keeping it below the pre-2017 rate of 35%) and creating a minimum 15% tax for corporations earning $100 million or more. He also plans to double the tax rate for foreign subsidiaries of US firms.

These policies would likely hurt earnings for sectors that benefited the most from Mr. Trump’s tax cuts (including financials, consumer staples and utilities) as well as large multinational companies with overseas operations (including technology and healthcare). However, Mr. Biden does plan to invest in growth areas such as clean energy and 5G technology. Moreover, the US economy is recovering from recession, so Mr. Biden may not make tax hikes an immediate priority – and there is no guarantee they will pass, especially if Congress remains divided.

Mr. Trump wants to maintain the status quo. The corporate tax cuts he implemented in 2017 were designed to be permanent, and he also likely wants to turn the temporary tax cuts for individuals into permanent ones. However, much depends on which party controls the US Congress after the elections – a Democratic Congress would be much less receptive to Mr. Trump’s tax proposals.

2. Energy policy

A Biden presidency could create opportunities for clean energy, while another Trump term would support the existing energy regime. Mr. Biden plans to invest heavily in areas like renewable energy and climate protection. His policy calls for a $2 trillion investment in solar, wind and other clean-energy sources, as well as incentives for manufacturers to produce zero-emission electric vehicles and energy-efficient homes.

Mr. Trump’s plan focuses more on traditional energy sources such as oil, natural gas and coal – which account for over 80% of total energy used in the US (vs. 10% for renewable energy). He would provide a friendlier tax and regulatory regime for traditional energy, as well as continued support for fracking – a drilling technique use to extract oil or natural gas from underground. The Trump administration believes its energy policies have made the US less vulnerable to shocks from the Middle East or OPEC.

3. US-China trade policy

President Trump has made US-China trade a priority of his administration – often acting unilaterally or via executive order. The two countries did agree on a Phase 1 trade deal in January, but tensions have since resumed over the pandemic and the business practices of Chinese technology firms. In a second term, Mr. Trump would likely continue his tough rhetoric and unilateral approach, perhaps spurring market volatility in the years ahead.

Mr. Biden has also pledged to be “tough on China”, but has indicated he prefers building coalitions – bringing US allies, labor groups and environmental organizations to the negotiating table. His administration would likely also view Chinese-led technology firms less favorably; Mr. Biden proposes a $300 billion investment in US technology spending (including 5G, AI and cybersecurity) to remain competitive with the Chinese. President Trump would likely favor continued US leadership in technology as well, although he has not confirmed any new policy measures to support this.

Gráfico 1

 

Despite their many differences, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are aligned in some areas that markets may not appreciate. For example, both candidates support some form of lowering pharmaceutical drug prices, favor more regulation of certain large US tech firms and hope to pass substantial US infrastructure packages, supporting areas like smart cities, roads and airports.

Historically, markets have done worse in the weeks before Election Day than in the period from Election Day to yearend (see chart). This is likely because the markets don’t like uncertainty: once an election is over, the markets are able to start factoring in the next president’s policies.

Gráfico 2

At the same time, the COVID-19 pandemic makes this a very unusual election year for the markets. While the presidential candidates spar over how they would approach the pandemic, the markets are processing new data points about regional outbreaks, vaccines, drug therapies and the pace of economic recovery – in addition to the level of monetary and fiscal support that has provided a floor for markets so far.

If the global economy does rebound in the next 12–18 months, we expect to see broader sector and geographical participation in the market’s upside – beyond the large-cap US technology stocks that have led through the crisis. Investors may want to factor this in, along with the candidates’ proposals, to consider allocations to select sectors. Cyclicals (such as select industrials, energy and financials), emerging technology with long-term growth potential (such as 5G, AI and cybersecurity), infrastructure and clean energy may all be potential winners in a post-2020 US election era.

Column by Mona Mahajan, US investment strategist and director with Allianz Global Investors

The Inflation Debate: What to Expect in an Economy Emerging from the Pandemic

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“The Big Picture Series”, Jupiter Asset Management. “The Big Picture Series”, Jupiter Asset Management

Jupiter Asset Management is organizing its first virtual event, “The Big Picture Series” for September, October and November, during which the management company will be bringing together experts from various investment disciplines to discuss current financial issues.

At the opening of the event, the first conference was delivered by Andrew Formica, the company’s CEO, who reflected on the unprecedented scale of globally disruptive effects of the pandemic and spoke of his belief in “the power of active minds” to meet the challenges of the currently irrational markets.

Afterwards, Richard Buxton, Head of the UK Alpha strategy and former CEO of Merian Global Investors, and Edward Bonham Carter, Vice Chairman of Jupiter Asset Management, spoke about the process of unifying both firms and the possible headwinds in the markets: the US presidential elections, the failure to reach an a Brexit agreement and the implications of the coronavirus crisis.

Then, on the panel discussion, Katharine Dryer, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, moderated a discussion that addressed inflation in a world that is still emerging from the pandemic. The panel included Ariel Bezalel, fund manager and Head of strategy for the fixed income team at Jupiter AM, Mark Richards, strategist with the Multi Asset team, Chi Kit Chai, Head of capital markets and CIO at Ping An Asset Management (Hong Kong), and Ned Naylor-Leyland, fund manager and Head of the Gold & Silver team.

In response to the crisis caused by the pandemic, central banks and governments have taken a major policy shift with a new wave of accommodative measures. As markets adapt to these new conditions, the debate centers on whether an inflationary or deflationary environment will occur. Beginning the round of responses, Ariel Bezalel, reviewed the evolution of inflation in the last decades, and argued that, in his opinion, what we are facing is structural deflation.

“In the 1980s, central banks, led by the efforts of Paul Volcker as Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, focused their efforts on fighting inflation. Then, the decade of the 90s was marked by a period of moderate inflation. While, at present, deflation or disinflation seems to be gradually enveloping the world. In reality, it is really a growing concern for the major central banks. Over the last decade, we have been experiencing a deflationary environment that has been expressed in our portfolios with a high weighting of medium and long duration securities issued by some of the AAA rated sovereign issuers,” explained the manager.

“In the Euro zone, 60% of the economies are experiencing deflation. On average, if you look at the situation in developed economies, inflation is close to 0%. While in emerging markets, where traditionally higher inflation levels have been experienced, inflation levels have been seen to decrease, reaching an average of 2%, year-on-year,” he added.

According to Ariel Bezalel, most of the arguments on deflation are grounded on worldwide  labor price. In a world with a massive increase in debt, an aging population, and enormous disruption by technology and globalization, the incorporation of cheaper labor from emerging economies into the global economy has been key to increasing deflationary pressures.

Another factor that has also been seen over the last few decades is how capital has gained an increasing share of the pie in the face of the bargaining power of the workforce. Since the pandemic began, some of these trends have accelerated – in particular the creation of more debt to try to rescue the global economy. But, for Bezalel, the concern is not so much the increase in debt as the utility of the debt. The manager pointed out that, during this year, a large part of the increase in fiscal deficits has been dedicated to rescuing the corporate sector and supporting people who have lost their jobs; unproductive debt that has not led to progress in infrastructure investment. 

Mark Richards, on the other hand, maintained a slightly different vision, with a slightly more inflationary scenario. The strategist of the Jupiter AM Multi Asset team argues that some of the structural forces of recent decades have set a trend, but that for the first time in the last 30 or 40 years one can see a coherent narrative on inflation based on a greater tendency of economies to deglobalization.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the impact of China’s entry into the global economic scene increased the world’s labor supply. Today, however, we are witnessing a reverse process, which is reflected in the strained trade relations between the United States and China. The way in which the post-VIDC era is moving towards a de-globalization of the economy would explain a possible increase in inflation. More money must be spent on redirecting supply chains, representing a greater cost to the system.

Furthermore, it should be taken into account that, at the global level, monetary policies are giving way to fiscal policies. During the last decade, the monetary policy of the main central banks has been expansive. At present, both fiscal and monetary policies are moving in the same direction after a very long time. According to Richards, the main difference in the response of the authorities to this crisis as compared to previous ones is that the liquidity that is flowing in the system is going to those areas which are less prone to consumption, so the argument of the speed of money is beginning to be more convincing.

Central banks are abandoning inflation targets set 30 or 40 years ago, admitting that they are not capable of modeling inflation. Instead of projecting inflation into the future, central banks decide to wait and keep interest rates close to zero for longer. This angle on monetary policy together with expectations, are the elements by which Richards defends an inflationary economic scenario.

According to Chi Kit Chai, however, there are two opposing forces at play. On the one hand, there are the loosening monetary and fiscal policies that have been implemented to counteract the effect of the pandemic. On the other hand, there is also the process of deglobalization that the economy is undergoing.

In recent decades, globalization has kept the prices of tradable goods low and has also represented a source of cheap labor. At this time, with tensions created by the US and China, there could also be a disruption in supply chains, and a potential relocation of these, contributing to inflationary pressure. In addition, the Fed has recently signaled its intention to tolerate higher price levels by modifying its inflation target.

In Chi Kit Chai’s opinion, there is an argument that we may be at the end of a secular disinflationary cycle spanning several decades, but there are also deflationary pressures exerted by the pandemic and the economic recession. At this time, it is not known if the pandemic is under control, if further waves will occur, or if the vaccine will arrive soon. Therefore, uncertainty in the markets is high. Deflationary forces remain strong because, although governments have acted against the loss of revenue from the most affected sectors, consumer spending has not recovered.

The near-zero interest rate environment also has implications for financial markets. According to Chi Kit Chai, we are in a high volatility and low yield environment in which debt has lost its traditional role of generating income and diversifying portfolios.

The negative correlation between equities and bonds breaks down when interest rates approach zero. Consequently, the risk/reward profile becomes asymmetrical: while the upside is limited, the downside can be significant if interest rates rise. This creates many challenges for investors, so they should not only take into account inflation, but this whole environment of near-zero interest rates.

In a similar vein, Ned Naylor-Leyland pointed out that, from his perspective, the market is exposed to both inflationary and deflationary pressures and that both will persist over time. According to the head of the Gold & Silver team, deflation exists in the monetary sphere. It is the result of some 40 years of accommodating monetary policies that have, in turn, created structural problems in the financial markets, and more specifically in the corporate debt market, where there is an excess supply that will not disappear soon. 

But, Naylor-Leyland also challenges the perception that the cost of living has not increased. Evidence of inflationary trends can be seen in food prices, especially since the pandemic began.

“Inflation used to be a measure of the cost of living and the ability to maintain a constant standard of living. But adjustments to official inflation measures means that at a consumer level inflation has been rising in an uncontrolled fashion, unrecognized by policy makers, and that has contributed to the rise of populism,” he said.

From a conventional market point of view, said Naylor-Leyland, there are individual asset classes from which returns can be achieved, regardless of the type of inflation environment. For the manager, returns can be generated on an individual asset class by taking virtually opposite positions depending on the area the investor is focusing on.

Irish Association of Investment Managers Appoints Michael D’Arcy as New CEO

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Irlanda
Foto cedidaMichael D'Arcy, new CEO of the Irish Association of Investment Managers (IAIM) . Irish Association of Investment Managers appoints Michael D’Arcy as New CEO

The Irish Association of Investment Managers (IAIM) has announced in a press release the appointment of former Minister of State with Responsibility for Financial Services Michael D’Arcy as its new CEO. He will work closely with IAIM Chairman, John Corrigan, on the development of the IAIM strategic plan in the context of the challenges and opportunities facing the investment management industry.

The IAIM stated that in his role as CEO, D’Arcy will be responsible for re-setting the IAIM agenda and priorities, given the changing landscape post-Brexit. His role will entail growing the presence of IAIM and the voice of investment managers in the context of the broader domestic financial service sector and helping to promote Ireland worldwide as a pre-eminent destination for investment management firms.

He will also be responsible for leading the contribution of the IAIM around key areas, such as sustainable finance and ESG, collaborating with the other key local and international stakeholders.

Corrigan said that they are “delighted” with D’Arcy’s appointment and pointed out that the industry is growing exponentially in Ireland, a trend they expect to continue. “This is our first step in onboarding the necessary expertise and competencies to face the challenge”.

“Ireland is one of the world’s leading centers for investment management, and the industry is uniquely positioned to play an integral role in the economic and social recovery post-COVID-19. However, we need to ensure that the regulation, policies and joined-up industry thinking in Ireland support this growth”, he added.

In his view, we are moving into “unchartered waters” in a post-Brexit environment, both domestically and internationally, and Ireland has “a once in a generation opportunity to make real changes and be at the very heart of new initiatives” such as ESG and sustainable financing.

Meanwhile, D’Arcy believes that crucially now there is a “huge opportunity” for Ireland, as the UK exits the EU, to help shape the future agenda of not just investment managers and firms where these is considerable growth potential, but even more broadly for the funds industry as a whole and become a global center for the industry.

“In that regard Ireland will need to continue to develop its skills base, and the promotion of education and training will be key in equipping students with the required skillsets, as will be the need to create a greater awareness among graduates and school leavers of the industry’s diverse employment opportunities. In my role as CEO, a vital goal will be in helping to make Ireland the premier destination for the advancement of sustainable and Green finance, and to form strong links and grow our relationships abroad”, he said.

Half of the top ten global investment managers have operations in IAIM, with its members and associate companies in Ireland managing over €1 trillion in assets.

COVID-19 Has Shaken Up High Yield and Put Opportunities On the Table

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Pixabay CC0 Public DomainMatt Horward. Matt Horward

As the COVID-19 pandemic cast its shadow over our economies, the high yield debt market has seen considerable changes of its own – not least the glut of downgrades bringing formerly investment grade (IG) issuers into the sector. However, this presents signs of resilience and opportunities for investors.

Two fundamental aspects of the high yield (HY) market have given issuers a chance to weather the storm. First, HY companies tend to ‘term-out’ debt – habitually moving shorter-term arrangements to longer-term. Second, firms typically have a degree of flexibility from revolving credit facilities (RCFs) which allow them to access cash, up to a predetermined limit, at any time. In short, there is no widespread and sudden refinancing requirement on the horizon. In a sector used to stressful conditions, the wiggle room is already incorporated.

That said, damage is inevitable. The hard stop in parts of the economy has seen activity slump – in some cases to near zero and for month after month. It has been dramatic for retailers, restaurants, airlines and many more. In high yield, the energy sector, and particularly US oil, has taken some of the hardest hits.

Bridging the gap

Spreads have narrowed from their peak, but remain well above pre-crisis levels, which AXA Investment Managers thinks offers good value for UK insurers and pension schemes. As of 22 July, spreads in Europe were 483 basis points (bps), compared to 533bps in the US and 559bps globally (1). This is tighter than the peak in March (by 383bps, 554bps and 535bps respectively) but still about 200bps wider than the start of the year. US issues still dominate – accounting for more than half of the global high yield market. For UK and European investors looking to access the US market, it is worth noting that hedging costs (see Figure 1) have tumbled. After historical highs in late 2018, effective zero rates from the Federal Reserve mean currency hedging costs are now at lows not seen since 2015.

AXA IM

The spreads have been seen are almost equivalent to the tech crash in 2002. The only period with dramatically wider spreads was the global financial crisis where they briefly hit 2,000bps in US HY (see Figure 2). In that regards, AXA Investment Managers believes that the swift action and the sheer scale of monetary and fiscal policy announced to combat the coronavirus around the world – and the willingness to do more in future – has helped to avoid this outcome.

AXA IM

Avoiding defaults

Defaults will rise in the global HY space. AXA Investment Managers thinks a first wave will continue over the next few months, with a second possible as we move through 2021, when the effect of stimulus and intervention wanes, and when the true impact of the outbreak is more clear. This doesn’t rob the HY sector of its appeal, but it does mean that care is needed when taking advantage of these market conditions. AXA Investment Managers expects an overall default rate of 5-8% in US HY this year. The demand picture in HY has been a curious beast, with liquidity holding up well at the more distressed end of the market, and among issuers who were well shielded from the virus impact or which even have a positive crisis story to tell (such as in healthcare). In the latter group, some companies are trading not far below where they traded before, but there may well be reasonable value here as the default risk remains low. In the middle group, however, where visibility about prospects is relatively low, liquidity has been weaker, and prices suffered early in the crisis. That means the potential for both risk and value is perhaps highest here, in our view. And it is here, too, that good credit analysis will be able to add the most value, although it may take time to position portfolios.

Within these groups, across sectors and within sectors the effects of the pandemic have been uneven. Balance sheet liquidity has always been a key part of our credit research tools, but it is particularly relevant now to determine which individual companies may have trouble bridging to the other side of this crisis in both a base case and a more stressed case where lockdowns persist or return. AXA Investment Managers has been reviewing individual holdings for short-term liquidity needs in both scenarios, while our analysis is adapting daily to factor in the unique characteristics of national intervention and support measures. This issuer-by-issuer approach applies equally to the influx of so-called fallen angels from the IG segment into HY – the dollar volume of fallen angels hit a record $91.5bn in March. This ongoing effect of the crisis is having a material impact on the size and structure of the HY market and will bring buying opportunities as the market adapts. AXA Investment Managers believes there should be no blind rush to snap up fallen angels, especially in weaker sectors. Value is possible because there may be forced sellers and the companies concerned may be larger and more resilient. However, fundamental analysis and valuation remains the starting point for any individual trade. In an unprecedented crisis, barely a decade from the last one, markets have rightly been rattled. But as volatility softens, attention should turn to the value on offer. AXA Investment Managers can see good reason to increase duration and risk positioning, where appropriate, while controlling risk for more stressed situations that may arise. History suggests that entry into the HY market at these sorts of spreads has a good probability of a strong return over a one-year view providing good opportunities for investors.

 

To learn more about this topic, please contact Rafael Tovar, Director, US Offshore Distribution, AXA IM

 

Notes:

  1. Source: Inter Continental Exchange 22 July 2020

 

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