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Johnson’s “Guns and Butter” Analogy

The rate hike and Kevin Warsh’s press conference transmitted a certain sense of calm to equity investors, who now do not see it as likely as in 2022 that the Fed will fall behind the curve. However, the yield on 10- and 30-year government bonds has continued to be volatile and trend upward.

Uncertainty regarding the conflict in Iran and how far it could push oil prices continues to weigh on investor sentiment, encouraging some well-known Wall Street strategists to advocate the similarities between the current cycle and what happened in the early 1960s, Lyndon B. Johnson’s “guns and butter” era.

The analogy with Lyndon Johnson, who simultaneously funded Vietnam and the “Great Society,” rhymes with the current moment. But it rhymes with 1965–68, not the early sixties: a late-cycle economy, at full employment, receiving a fiscal boost when there is no longer any slack.

How does it compare to the current picture? On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 bps, to 3.75%–4.00%, the first hike in more than three years. Furthermore, it raised its core PCE forecast for 2026 to 3.4%. It did so even though the Administration actively pressured it to hold back. On the fiscal front, there is an added request of $1.5 trillion for defense, and the CBO projects a deficit of 5.8% of GDP and debt at 101%. The 10-year closed the week of the rate hike at 5%.

What are the similarities with “guns and butter”? Today, as in 1965, an armed conflict and an expansion of public spending coincide with full employment (procyclical fiscal spending, quite heterodox in a historical context): unemployment below 4% then, 4.1% now. The tug-of-war between the White House and the Fed is also repeating itself. In December 1965, Johnson reprimanded Martin, then head of the Fed, at his ranch for raising the discount rate; today the tension is between Trump and Warsh. In the stock market, the concentration in megacaps linked to AI recalls the genesis of the Nifty Fifty, although with much less striking valuations among its main representatives.

But there are also differences; the fiscal aspect plays against us. In 1965, debt hovered around 40% of GDP and was falling. Johnson’s deficit barely reached 3% in 1968. Today, debt is two and a half times higher and growing, so the risk is greater than back then.

Wages play in our favor. What made the inflation of the sixties chronic was the wage spiral, with strong unions and COLA clauses (cost-of-living adjustment clauses) applied to social security payments. Today wages are growing at 3.1% year-on-year, and the post-pandemic trend is clearly downward. Current inflation is largely supply-driven, due to energy and tariffs, and without indexation it can dissipate; this is made clear, for example, by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Finally, there are no similarities regarding the monetary regime either. Bretton Woods and financial repression allowed the adjustment to be postponed until August 1971. Today, with a floating exchange rate and “bond vigilantes” on alert in recent months, the adjustment arrives via the term premium, in a faster and more volatile manner.

And although Warsh acts today like Martin in 1965–66, his speech leaves no doubt regarding the objective of containing and controlling inflation, and thus recovering credibility and confidence in the Federal Reserve. The problem back then was not the rate hike, but what came after: the Fed overestimated the Government’s capacity to raise taxes, and its rate cuts in 1967–68 were miscalculations with the economy already at full employment. The key question is whether the Fed will maintain its focus after the midterms in November; if Trump ultimately loses control of both houses, pressure in Iran could increase significantly.

Scenario Analysis

Trying to add some color, our scenario analysis (with subjective probabilities) would look like this:

1.- “1966 Analogy” (45%). The Fed stands firm and there is a mid-cycle slowdown, similar to the roughly 20% drop in the S&P that year, followed by a recovery.

2.- “1967–68 Analogy” (25%). The Fed yields after the “midterms” and inflation gets stuck above 3%. The term premium rises steadily and a prolonged regime of poor real returns opens up for 60/40 portfolios, like the one that followed between 1966 and 1982.

3.- “AI Productivity” (30%). Capex expands capacity and absorbs the fiscal boost, as in the late nineties.

Implications for Asset Classes

And how does this outlook affect the major asset classes?

Fixed income: Conservative stance on duration relative to the index in US nominals, with a steepening bias on the curve and some protection through inflation-linked bonds. With the 10-year around 5%, we are approaching an interesting area, but the risk of higher oil prices and a more dynamic labor market will weigh in the short term.

Real assets: Gold is the most asymmetric hedge against a complacent Fed, as demonstrated in the seventies. It can be complemented with positions in energy and commodities.

Equities: Concentration in quality at high multiples was paid for dearly in 1973–74 (Nifty Fifty bubble). However, in a context of uncertainty like today’s, with tech companies putting their balance sheets on the line, quality is proving to act as a haven. We are entering a period in which analysts have historically revised their earnings growth projections downward; according to the BofA manager survey, a certain complacency is perceived regarding the evolution of crude oil prices (42% of respondents expect the barrel to range between 70 and 80 dollars at year-end), which is evident in their levels of optimism; finally, retail margin purchases, in an area of excessive expansion (+37% year-on-year), reinforce the reading of short-term fragility.

The stock market rise since the rate hike meets the historical profile analyzed. The historical median is −3% at one and three months, with recovery from the fifth month. But the most similar cycle, that of March 2022, driven by supply inflation, was the only negative one at twelve months. With six observations, it is a directional reference.

Credit and dollar: In credit, short maturities with an emphasis on issuer quality. In the dollar, the rate differential supports it in the short term, but these regimes ended up depreciating it, as in 1971. That suggests flexible hedging ratios.

Three signals to watch that would bring us closer to the adverse scenario: a Fed pause or cut with core PCE above 3%, wages growing above 4%, and a lack of consensus within the Fed, with “dissenters” supporting cuts in the FOMC after November.

AIS Celebrates Ten Years with a Broader Platform and a Focus on Technology

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyIn the image, on the left is Samir Lakkis, Founder and Director of Sales at AIS Group, and on the right is Erik Schachter, Chief Investment Officer at AIS

This marks the tenth anniversary of the launch of AIS Financial Group, and the boutique firm specializing in investment solutions celebrated it at its annual meeting under the slogan “A decade of trust.” Over the past decade, the company has grown from building its business around structured products to developing a financial platform active in securitization, funds, and fixed income, with an expanding international presence.

This evolution has also been accompanied by a greater commitment to technology, which AIS considers key to automating processes, expanding its service capacity, and scaling the business without sacrificing the level of customer service that has characterized the firm since its inception. Currently, the company offers access to multiple issuers, structuring, and execution across various asset classes, backed by an extensive network of providers.

Samir Lakkis, Founder and Director of Sales, opened the event by reviewing the transformation experienced by AIS over its ten-year history. He stated that AIS maintains its independence while having expanded both its platform, geographic reach, and provider network. Among the main milestones of this evolution, he highlighted the opening of an office in Miami and the increase in the number of providers in what he described as a record-breaking 2025, with more than 35 issuers.

New business lines have been added to this activity. Securitization has become one of the fastest-growing areas, allowing different types of assets or investment strategies to be transformed into tradable securities. The fund business has also gained greater relevance, both through the launch of proprietary strategies and through fund distribution and collaboration with external managers. Added to this is its fixed income activity, offering tailored execution solutions across the United States, Europe, and emerging markets.

Technology has become another pillar of this expansion. AIS has an in-house technology department developing internal and client-facing tools, including Phoenix and Akoura. “Technology allows us to automate more processes, improve the service we offer to clients, and, above all, scale the business much faster without losing the quality of service that has always been fundamental for AIS,” Lakkis explained.

Thus, the company has evolved from a model focused primarily on structured products to becoming a financial platform with a broader array of activities, maintaining its independence as one of the key elements of continuity during its first decade.

Securitization: A Vast Universe of Instruments Across Diverse Asset Classes

Baptiste Saliva and Clément Rudi, Securitization Solutions Directors, alongside Mario Abi Karam, Relationship Manager, delved into securitization solutions and AIS’s ability to turn diverse assets and investment strategies into tradable instruments. Since it began operating in early 2022, the platform has securitized over $1 billion in assets, roughly half of which correspond to unlisted underlyings. To tailor structures to the needs of each transaction, AIS also works with more than 30 institutional counterparties.

Mario Abi Karam explained that in recent years, the company has structured positions in real estate projects, pre-IPO companies like OpenAI, physical gold, and third-party managed equity strategies, turning them into tradable, bankable securities. The goal is to facilitate access and distribution for investments that, due to their complexity, private nature, or access barriers, might present greater obstacles for investors.

“In essence, investment managers arrive with ideas that may be complex, private, or difficult to access or distribute, and we make them bankable,” Abi Karam summarized.

The process begins with the asset or strategy provided by the manager—ranging from a loan, fund, or portfolio to real estate—and continues with the issuance of a specific vehicle for that mandate, which investors can subscribe to directly from their existing bank accounts.

The solution can be applied to a wide range of asset classes, from equities, derivatives, bonds, and commodities to private markets, private equity, real estate, structured products, or digital assets. AIS maintains vehicles in the Cayman Islands, Luxembourg, and Guernsey, with the choice depending on manager preferences, investor profiles, and tax considerations. The company also manages the infrastructure associated with the product, including documentation, subscriptions and redemptions, bank and custody accounts, and net asset value (NAV) calculations.

“In short, if you can describe a strategy, we can make it bankable,” Abi Karam emphasized, summarizing the platform’s value proposition.

Baptiste Saliva later focused on the flexibility of the infrastructure. AIS can adapt its structures to different types of assets and strategies, and in recent months, it has developed new processes powered by artificial intelligence. As he explained, these tools are helping accelerate the structuring and issuance process, allowing a project to typically launch in about two weeks, even for complex or illiquid operations.

Clément Rudi addressed the operational structure and the various participants involved throughout the lifecycle of the product. “There are many actors involved in this framework to ensure it is compliant, secure, and efficient,” he noted. AIS coordinates the capabilities of its legal, tax, compliance, and marketing teams, while the administrator performs the necessary checks on the certificate prior to issuance and throughout its lifespan.

The paying agent handles payments and facilitates the secondary market; the broker enables the manager to execute the strategy; and the distributor subsequently channels the product to qualified investors. Within this setup, “our role is to provide investment managers with the best tool and the best structure to implement the strategy, and you only have to implement it correctly according to the term sheet,” Rudi explained.

The frequency of NAV calculations ultimately depends on the underlying assets and can range from daily to quarterly, based on liquidity and the valuation frequency of the assets themselves.

Investment Ideas

Erik Schachter, CIO of the company, focused his presentation on AIS’s market outlook and, in particular, the importance the firm places on momentum when designing investment ideas. Schachter explained that AIS seeks to offer diversified proposals across sectors such as consumer, technology, financials, communications, and energy, tailoring opportunities to prevailing market conditions.

Regarding structures, around 60% of the proposed ideas are autocallables, though the firm also works with different participation mechanisms and payoff structures to diversify the solutions available to clients. According to data presented, 86% of AIS’s ideas in 2025 delivered positive returns, compared to 14% with negative returns.

Schachter stressed that analyzing an opportunity goes beyond identifying the attractiveness of a specific sector; it also incorporates momentum dynamics. “When we think of an idea, we think about the sector thesis, but it is also important for us to think about momentum,” he stated.

The reason, he explained, is that shifts in volatility can substantially alter the terms of an issuance. “It’s good to trade when the VIX is high, because you get a better coupon and better strikes.” In this way, two notes with seemingly identical parameters can yield different coupons depending on the market timing of their structuring. Using an example provided by Schachter, a VIX of 30 could yield a 12% coupon, whereas with a VIX of 20, the coupon dropped to 9%.

The manager cited a recent proposal tied to a DRAM memory ETF as a case in point. AIS launched the idea on August 5 with a 50% barrier and a 32% coupon. Two weeks later, the coupon had fallen to 22%—a ten percentage point difference that, according to Schachter, illustrates the significance of market timing when structuring these types of products.

Latin American Wealth Crosses Borders and Obtains a Global Passport

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Latin American wealth is no longer content to remain where it was created; today, the region’s high-net-worth individuals are expanding their investment horizons and making international diversification an increasingly important piece of their strategy. This phenomenon does not necessarily mean capital is fleeing Latin America, but it does mean a growing proportion of wealth management decisions are being made with a view beyond its borders.

Recent data from two of the world’s largest banks specializing in high net worth illustrate the magnitude of this shift. Citi’s Global Family Office Report 2026, based on responses from 351 family offices across 41 countries, identifies an increasing internationalization among families, greater sophistication in risk management, and a renewed interest in public equity markets, particularly in developed regions. Nearly 90% of participants reported positive portfolio performance year-to-date in 2026, while 41% maintain target annual returns of between 7% and 10%.

When looking specifically at Latin America, an even more telling picture emerges. UBS’s Global Family Office Report 2026 found that Latin American family offices currently have 60% of their portfolios invested in North America, compared to just 23% within Latin America itself. Another 11% is allocated to Western Europe, with the remainder distributed across Asia-Pacific, China, and other regions.

The picture is striking: for every dollar Latin American family offices keep invested within the region, they allocate roughly $2.60 to North America. And this does not appear to be a static picture.

UBS notes that 61% of Latin American family offices plan to make strategic asset allocation changes during 2026. Among their top investment themes, artificial intelligence leads with 77% preference, followed by infrastructure at 55%, and energy and resources at 45%.

This shift also bears a specific characteristic: Latin American high-net-worth individuals are not abandoning traditional assets to seek refuge exclusively in alternative investments. On the contrary, the regional portfolio shown by UBS maintains 66% in traditional asset classes and 34% in alternatives. Equities account for 32%, fixed income 29%, and cash 5%; on the alternative side, private equity accounts for 16%, followed by hedge funds, private debt, and other assets.

The transformation, therefore, is not simply about seeking more sophisticated assets. It runs deeper: combining liquidity, public markets, private investments, and international exposure within a wealth structure that is increasingly less dependent on its country of origin.

North America Becomes the Core Platform

The concentration in North America is not exclusive to Latin America. For U.S. family offices, the “home bias” is even greater: 88% of their portfolios are invested in North America, according to UBS.

The difference is that while a U.S. family office can find a vast array of stocks, bonds, private companies, infrastructure, and other assets within its home market, a Latin American family office operates from a different reality.

For a family whose core operating company, real estate holdings, or historical business is in Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, or Chile, investing internationally offers a way to reduce the geographic concentration inherent in their business assets—a mindset shift also being accelerated by younger generations.

An analysis published this year by the CFA Institute highlights that Latin American family offices are evolving from vehicles primarily focused on wealth preservation into broader wealth strategy platforms. Next-generation family members are seeking diversification, private markets, and better risk-adjusted returns beyond traditional family businesses.

The shift can be summarized in a question becoming increasingly relevant among leading families: if the family business already represents a massive concentration of risk, why should the liquid financial portfolio be concentrated in the same country, currency, or sector?

The CFA Institute highlights an illustrative explanation from Mauricio Santos, Director of Investment Portfolios at GBM, who notes that when a family’s core business can no longer grow at a return on capital higher than what a diversified portfolio offers, attention begins shifting toward professional management of financial assets.

This marks a major evolution: while the first generation built the company, the next generation is focused on building wealth around the company.

The New Map of Wealth

This mindset helps explain why the United States occupies such a central position. Latin American investment in North America should not be interpreted solely as a bet on Wall Street. It also encompasses real estate, private equity, infrastructure, private debt, investment funds, technology companies, and other assets forming part of a much deeper financial ecosystem.

For family offices, internationalization entails far more than picking stocks or funds. Citi notes that 38% of surveyed families expect their degree of internationalization to increase over the next five years. In many cases, family assets, businesses, and members are already spread across multiple jurisdictions, increasing tax, regulatory, legal, and structural complexity.

In other words, the family office is moving beyond managing mere capital to managing an increasingly complex wealth geography. Here lies a significant opportunity for the U.S. offshore financial ecosystem.

Financial centers like Miami and New York are not competing solely to capture Latin American assets. They offer the banking, legal, tax, investment, and governance infrastructure required by families whose economic interests span multiple countries.

It is no coincidence that the CFA Institute identifies political volatility, interest rate shifts, and domestic market confidence as factors continuing to drive offshore allocation decisions among high-net-worth families in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Colombia.

Furthermore, another element reframes the traditional narrative around family offices. After years in which private investments seemed to become the ultimate status symbol of wealth sophistication, Citi observes a renewed appetite for public markets.

Nearly half of the family offices surveyed by the bank increased their exposure to equities during 2026, making public markets the primary destination for new capital. Developed market equities, in particular, are the top asset class preferred for future net allocations.

For Latin American investors, this trend is especially notable. UBS data shows that 32% of their portfolios are currently in equities, with 24% specifically allocated to developed markets versus 9% in emerging market equities.

In short, diversification does not necessarily mean seeking exotic markets; to a large extent, it means stepping outside the home market to enter the world’s deepest and most liquid financial markets.

However, it is not all Wall Street. The growing North American footprint does not mean Latin American family offices are putting all their eggs in the U.S. basket. The same UBS report shows regional families maintain substantial geographic diversification: alongside the 60% in North America, they hold 23% in Latin America and 11% in Western Europe.

Valid reasons remain to keep capital in the region; exposure to energy, resources, infrastructure, and other real assets aligns with Latin America’s underlying economic structure. Indeed, UBS identifies energy and resources as one of the top three investment themes for regional family offices.

The strategy, therefore, is less about abandoning Latin America than preventing wealth from depending exclusively on it—that distinction is fundamental.

Artificial Intelligence Is Also Reshaping the Family Office

The transformation extends beyond where capital is deployed to how it is managed. Citi found that family offices are transitioning from experimenting with artificial intelligence to applying it across investment analysis, data management, reporting, process automation, and decision support. The immediate goal is not replacing investment managers, but driving productivity and enhancing core workflows like due diligence.

In Latin America, AI stands out as the single top investment theme identified by UBS, selected by 77% of respondents—outranking infrastructure and energy. This is revealing: it shows the new generation of Latin American family offices is attempting to solve two challenges simultaneously—diversifying wealth and professionalizing the institution that manages it.

The CFA Institute highlights this precise evolution: high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth clients possess greater financial literacy today and demand institutional setups where investment, tax, and legal professionals work in synergy, rather than relying on a single personal relationship with an advisor.

The Paradox: Higher Financial Sophistication, But Unresolved Succession

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of this transformation lies in its paradox. While family offices grow more institutional, sophisticated, and global, wealth transition remains one of their greatest vulnerabilities.

Citi notes that approximately one-third of respondents expect a leadership transition within the family, the family office, or the family business over the next five years. Obstacles include unclear succession plans, inadequate preparation of future leaders, and a lack of alignment regarding long-term vision.

UBS reports a similar situation globally: only 35% of family offices have a defined succession plan for the family office itself, and just 27% have a structured process to prepare heirs. This data takes on added weight in Latin America.

The CFA Institute points out that much of the region’s wealth remains concentrated in the first and second generations. However, successors are already demonstrating a different relationship with money and risk.

They do not necessarily want to sell the family business or break with its legacy; rather, they want options. That can mean investing in international public markets, entering private equity or venture capital, acquiring real estate abroad, or constructing wealth structures that separate core business operational risk from family financial capital.

Succession, therefore, is not merely deciding who will inherit the business. It is deciding what type of wealth architecture the next generation will inherit.

The conclusion emerging from these studies is that the Latin American family office is entering a new era. The family enterprise may remain rooted in Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, or Argentina, the family may continue to reside in the region, and the core business may remain the primary source of wealth creation.

However, financial wealth now operates across a different geography. Portions may reside in U.S. equities, international funds, private equity, foreign real estate, infrastructure, and liquid cash instruments. Family members may study or live in different countries, and legal structures may span multiple jurisdictions.

In this environment, wealth ceases to carry a single financial nationality. UBS data summarizes it decisively: 60% of Latin American family office assets are deployed in North America, while 23% remains in the home region.

Citi, from another vantage point, projects that internationalization will continue to expand and cross-border complexity will become a structural hallmark of wealth management. That may ultimately represent the most significant transformation of all.

Latin America’s largest wealth holders are not necessarily leaving Latin America, but they are ceasing to rely exclusively on it.

How to Obtain Predictable Equity Returns with WisdomTree

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyTom May, Global CIO, Outcome and Derivative Strategies at WisdomTree.

Attendees at the second edition of the Funds Society Leaders Summit, in collaboration with CFA Society Spain, were able to learn a bit more about defined return investing through WisdomTree’s analysis, presented by Tom May, Global CIO, Outcome and Derivative Strategies at the firm.

In his presentation, May recalled that equity securities generate long-term returns, but these can vary considerably over time. Currently, for example, “European equities have a positive expected return, but exhibit severe drawdown events and fat tails.”

In this scenario, defined return investments—known as autocallables—increase the probability of achieving a specific return target. These types of products “harness the spread between equity forward and realized returns (ERP), as well as the persistent premium of implied volatility over realized volatility (VRP), to deliver higher and consistent yields,” May assures.

Ultimately, he poses the question of why settle for uncertainty when an investor can define their return and focus on achieving a defined yield in the most likely scenarios to maximize the investment.

WisdomTree’s defined return strategies feature a diversified portfolio of autocallable securities. But how does an autocallable security work? It is a structured investment product whose maturity and payouts depend on the performance of the underlying asset.

In short, autocallables allow for greater visibility regarding returns and a more probable path. Historically, forecasts and actual results have aligned, as seen when analyzing the real and projected performance of a portfolio of autocallable products historically managed by the WisdomTree team.

Why consider WisdomTree’s defined return autocallable strategies? May’s presentation highlights several reasons:

1.- Defined positive return in pre-established markets: Autocallables are designed to offer a positive return over their lifespan, unless the market suffers a significant drop and remains at those levels for an extended period.

2.- Higher probability of achieving expected outcomes: A diversified portfolio of autocallable securities can limit return variance within a target distribution range, increasing the probability of reaching that target.

3.- A more predictable investment process: A diversified portfolio of autocallable securities can capture long-term equity risk premiums while reducing the dispersion of returns that equity investors would otherwise face.

With its WisdomTree Defined Return Autocallable Strategies fund, the investor gains access to an equity-linked return, with defined outcomes and daily liquidity, through a product that actively manages a diversified portfolio of autocallable products and collateral, continuously optimizing maturities, thresholds, index pairs, and collateral. The product’s active approach adapts to market conditions, backed by 13 years of experience in these types of products.

Compliance Costs Transform Competition in the Offshore Market

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The US offshore business faces a paradox; on one hand, demands for transparency, anti-money laundering, and management of international clients elevate the complexity and cost of the financial business. On the other hand, authorities have begun to review certain obligations under the argument of reducing regulatory burdens and favoring competitiveness. Thus, while large banks can spread their costs among thousands of clients, small firms face a decisive question: how much wealth do they need to manage for compliance to be profitable? The US offshore business faces a paradox.

For private banks, asset managers, trust companies, and family offices serving international investors, the result is not necessarily a reduction in complexity. In many cases, compliance has become a permanent business function: it requires specialized personnel, technological systems, internal controls, and the capacity to respond to regulatory changes. The question is whether that cost structure is modifying competition; in a market where revenues depend on assets under management, an institution managing billions of dollars can distribute its compliance expenses across a broad base of clients and assets. A small firm, on the other hand, can face much of the same obligations with a much smaller scale.

The above does not mean that the large players are automatically winning, nor that the small ones are doomed to disappear. But it does pose a relevant hypothesis for the industry: regulation can become a barrier to entry and scale, an increasingly important competitive advantage.

The price of knowing the client

One of the main sources of costs is in customer due diligence, known in the industry as KYC, for its acronym in English: Know Your Customer. For a financial institution serving international wealth, opening an account can imply much more than verifying an identity. It must understand who the client is, who controls a corporation, what the origin of the funds is, what economic activity generates the wealth, and what risks the relationship may represent; in certain cases, it also needs to review corporate structures, trusts, intermediaries, and ultimate beneficial owners.

Complexity increases when the client comes from a jurisdiction with higher risks of corruption, sanctions, money laundering, or hard-to-verify wealth structures. The cost does not end with account opening; information must be updated, operations must be monitored, and alerts must be investigated when appropriate.

FinCEN’s customer due diligence rule specifically seeks to have financial institutions identify and verify the ultimate beneficial owners of their corporate clients. In February 2026, FinCEN granted relief regarding the obligation to identify and verify ultimate beneficial owners in each new account opening, but that does not eliminate the general responsibility to know the client and manage their risks.

For a global bank, these tasks can be integrated into technological platforms, operations centers, and specialized teams. For a small firm, they can mean hiring external personnel, acquiring monitoring tools, or relying on specialized providers; the difference is not only in how much it costs to comply, but in how many clients and assets can absorb that cost.

FATCA: the cost of serving international wealth

The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, known as FATCA, is one of the pillars of the US international tax transparency environment. The law seeks to identify US taxpayers who maintain accounts and financial assets outside the country. To do this, it imposes reporting obligations on foreign financial institutions and establishes reporting mechanisms to the IRS. The importance of FATCA for the offshore business is that it turns tax information management into a structural part of international financial relationships; foreign institutions that do not comply with certain obligations may face a 30% withholding on certain US-source payments, in addition to other operational and tax consequences.

For a bank or fund manager, this implies client tax classification processes, documentation, reporting, and controls to avoid errors; the burden can be particularly relevant for institutions managing structures with investors from different countries, currencies, and tax regimes. However, not all Latin American clients are subject to the same obligations. A Mexican investor using a US structure does not necessarily have the same responsibilities as a US citizen with assets abroad. The legal nature of the entity, tax residency, and the type of investment are decisive. Therefore, compliance cannot be treated as a uniform routine procedure; it is actually a process requiring specialists capable of distinguishing between profiles and structures.

Fixed costs, a real problem

As a general rule, the discussion about compliance usually concentrates on fines, sanctions, and regulatory obligations. However, to analyze competition between institutions, the most important aspect may be another: fixed costs. An international private bank may need dedicated teams for tasks such as: anti-money laundering and prevention of terrorist financing, due diligence and periodic client review, international sanctions and transaction controls, regulatory and tax reporting, internal audit and risk management, monitoring technology and records management, as well as legal and tax advisory.

That is why the number of employees, software licenses, and technological infrastructure do not necessarily grow in the same proportion as assets under management, and scale can become an advantage factor. If an institution manages very large wealth, the cost of compliance represents a smaller proportion of its potential revenues. In contrast, a small firm may face a much heavier burden for every dollar managed.

Is the business concentrating?

If regulatory costs become harder to absorb, institutions can react in several ways. One option is to invest in technology and automation, another is to hire external compliance services, but they can also specialize in a type of client or reduce their exposure to higher-risk jurisdictions. In some cases, the way out may be selling the operation, merging with another firm, or becoming part of a larger platform; the potential result is greater market concentration.

But here it is convenient to avoid an automatic conclusion because regulation is not the only factor that determines industry consolidation; interest rates, product profitability, access to technology, competition for talent, and the capacity to attract clients also exert influence. Furthermore, small firms can have advantages that large banks do not always possess: specialization, closeness to the client, knowledge of a region, and the capacity to offer personalized services. The problem appears when that specialization no longer offsets the costs of operating.

US regulatory change: fewer reports does not mean fewer controls

The 2026 juncture introduced an important nuance. FinCEN published a final rule in August that keeps US companies exempt from reporting beneficial ownership information under the Corporate Transparency Act. The obligation is maintained for certain foreign companies registered to operate in the United States. The change reduces certain formal obligations for US companies, but does not eliminate customer due diligence responsibilities for financial institutions. In other words, a company may be exempt from filing a specific report with FinCEN and, even so, have to provide information to its bank or investment manager so that it can comply with its know-your-customer obligations.

The distinction is fundamental for the offshore market; corporate transparency and financial compliance are related, but they are not exactly the same thing. The former refers to information that must be reported to authorities under a given regime; the latter encompasses risk management that financial institutions must perform as part of their operations. The reduction of one obligation does not automatically eliminate the other, and for wealth managers, regulatory uncertainty also carries a cost. A firm that invests in systems, personnel, and processes needs to know whether the rules that justified that investment will remain in force. Normative volatility can complicate planning and favor institutions that have legal and regulatory teams capable of adapting quickly.

But the impact is not limited to banks and asset managers; family offices, particularly those managing international wealth, must also face decisions related to corporate structures, private investments, investment vehicles, estate succession, and family governance. Not all family offices have the same structure. Some are single-family offices with few employees; others operate as platforms that serve several families and offer investment services, wealth administration, and tax coordination.

The difference in scale can also determine how they absorb compliance; an office managing the wealth of a single family may need to hire external providers for specialized functions, while a multi-family platform can distribute some costs among several clients. But a limit exists because outsourcing does not eliminate the manager’s responsibility. Hiring a compliance provider does not mean automatically transferring all legal and regulatory obligations. That is why the growth of the family office market can open opportunities for companies offering specialized compliance services, regulatory technology, and risk management; compliance ceases to be solely an expense and becomes a service industry around international wealth. The transformation of the offshore market can also create winners other than banks; regulatory technology companies, identity verification providers, transaction monitoring platforms, and specialized firms can benefit from structural demand.

The financial industry needs tools to reduce errors, accelerate processes, and keep its clients’ information updated; additionally, artificial intelligence can contribute to automating some tasks of review, classification, and anomaly detection, but its use does not eliminate the need for human controls, validation, and institutional responsibility. For small firms, technology can represent a way to compete with large institutions without replicating all their internal infrastructure; the challenge is that technology also requires investment, integration, and maintenance. Furthermore, automated systems can generate false positives, classification errors, and data quality issues. The question is no longer only how much it costs to comply, but how much it costs to comply efficiently.

An offshore market for the big players?

Based on the above, everything indicates that there are indeed economic reasons to think that scale can favor large institutions because fixed costs, technological investment capacity, and the availability of specialists can generate competitive advantages. But it is not enough to state that the US offshore is becoming an exclusive business for the big players; competition also depends on the ability of small firms to specialize, outsource functions, automate processes, and carefully select their clients.

The most probable scenario is not necessarily the disappearance of the small ones, but a more marked differentiation between business models; on one hand, large banks and platforms can offer comprehensive services, global infrastructure, and capacity to serve complex wealth. On the other, boutique firms can compete through regional specialization, personalized attention, and knowledge of specific segments of the Latin American market. The problem is that regulation can raise the minimum operating threshold. An institution that previously could serve a small number of international clients with a relatively simple structure may now need more sophisticated processes to remain competitive.

The US offshore market was born and developed around the capacity to attract international capital, offer sophisticated financial services, and connect investors with global markets. Today, a growing part of competition may depend on something less visible: the ability to comply. The bank that best identifies risks, the manager that maintains stronger files, and the platform that automates its processes can have an advantage over their competitors, but that advantage has a cost.

For investors, compliance can mean greater security, transparency, and trust; for institutions, it represents instead a necessary investment to operate. And for small firms, it can become the difference between growing, specializing, or abandoning certain market segments. The question is not whether the offshore must comply, but who can pay the price of doing so and what effects that cost will have on competition. Because in the new map of international money, the capacity to manage wealth may continue to be important, but the capacity to demonstrate that it is managed correctly may be the one that determines who remains in business.

Morgan Stanley’s Endorsement of Equities: Valuations Are Grounded in Fundamentals

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

In its latest positioning report, the investment bank described valuations as “reasonable,” given corporate earnings prospects and nominal GDP growth.

According to the firm, corporate earnings remain the primary driver of the equity rally, a variable they expect to continue trending upward.

Morgan Stanley holds a particularly bullish view on the U.S., which is the only equity market they currently recommend overweighting.

Despite a global economic environment marked by inflation, uncertainty, and geopolitical tension, global equity markets have been on a run. With varying results across geographies and sectors, global equity benchmarks have risen strongly, driven primarily by the excitement surrounding the artificial intelligence boom, which has had Wall Street, in particular, as one of its epicenters. And while this positive momentum has raised several questions—and anxieties—around equity valuation levels, prices are supported by fundamentals. That is Morgan Stanley’s stance on the matter.

According to the bank’s latest global positioning report, BEAT (an acronym for Bonds, Equities, Alternatives, and Transition) for the third quarter of the year, economic fundamentals support valuations.

“While headline valuations appear elevated, they remain reasonable relative to earnings growth prospects and a structurally stronger nominal economy,” the investment bank noted in its recent report.

Along those lines, they added that they expect “the market to broaden out as geopolitical tensions ease, with many sectors still trading at lower valuations, leaving room for a rebound.”

Regarding the recent upside in equity markets, Morgan Stanley emphasized that it has been driven by corporate results rather than higher multiples. Current multiples, they noted, “are not extreme when viewed relative to the last five to ten years.”

Tailwinds for Stock Markets

One of the drivers Morgan Stanley sees for equities is related to economic dynamics. “Stronger nominal GDP growth supports corporate revenue expansion, earnings growth, and cash flow generation, creating a favorable environment for equities,” they commented in their report.

Added to this is the public policy component, given that the investment bank anticipates that fiscal policies, deregulation, and tax-driven growth “are likely to reinforce this.”

For the firm, corporate earnings remain the primary driver of the equity rally. Looking ahead, they anticipate this variable will continue to trend upward, supported by “resilient demand, productivity gains, and expanding capex cycles.” This trajectory, they predicted, will run its course as long as the capital expenditure cycle continues to rise.

Currently, an expanding capex cycle is closely tied to the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence models across all levels of the economy, in what many describe as a new industrial revolution. This deployment of corporate muscle has helped keep investor optimism alive amid uncertainties.

An Interesting Dynamic in the U.S.

Stock markets overall have posted relatively solid performance. The MSCI All Country World Index, which tracks global equities broadly, has gained 18.2% over the last 12 months. The United States as a whole has performed on par with the rest of the world—with one-year gains of 16.6% for the MSCI USA Index and 16.7% for the MSCI World ex USA Index—but its technology sector has stood out in particular.

Reflecting this, while the S&P 500 has appreciated 16.7% over 12 months and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 11.8%, the Nasdaq Composite has surged 20.4%.

Echoing its positive view on the fundamentals behind equity valuations, Morgan Stanley sees room for Wall Street to run further. In fact, in its positioning recommendations, the U.S. stock market is the only one rated Overweight.

This recommendation is backed by a “constructively positive view on overall growth and earnings in 2026.” In that regard, they highlighted that fiscal stimulus from the country’s One Big Beautiful Bill, deregulation efforts, and ongoing AI adoption “continue to support growth.”

In contrast, the firm holds a Neutral view on Japanese and Emerging Market equities, and an Underweight recommendation on European equities.

The Shadow of a Strong El Niño Phenomenon Extends Across Latin America

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

With anxieties over a strong version of the El Niño phenomenon confirmed, markets are preparing to deal with the economic impacts across Latin American countries. The consensus is that there will be widespread consequences due to the disruption of markets such as energy and agriculture, but also areas where opportunities could arise. Furthermore, financial sector actors point out that not all countries in the region experience this climate phenomenon in the same way or with the same intensity.

United Nations analyses warn of an El Niño of historic magnitude. Estimates from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assign a probability of over 90% that the phenomenon will reach a very high intensity during the northern autumn-winter period (spring-summer in the Southern Hemisphere). What’s more, they place the probability of it reaching a historic level—the so-called Super El Niño—at 69%.

Economic impacts are going to be deeply heterogeneous and persistent, according to comments by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in a recent report. The entity anticipates a real GDP contraction, inflationary pressures, poverty, and critical vulnerability in key sectors such as energy, fishing, agriculture, and certain infrastructure.

Neuberger shares the view that the ocean warming phenomenon can have “substantial” consequences. Disruptions in agricultural production, food security, and power generation can feed inflation, against a backdrop where consumer prices are already trending upward with the jump in oil and the prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

A Second Phase of the Phenomenon

“It is expected to have an impact in two phases. The first has already been taking place this year,” says Jorge Espada, co-founder and Managing Partner at Valoro Capital. The first relates to the warming of waters and climate, mainly affecting primary activities.

In the case of Peru—one of the countries that tends to be most affected by El Niño—sectors like fishing were hit, impacting anchovy production, among others, as well as certain crops like mango, both for export and domestic consumption.

Now, concern is linked to the second phase of the phenomenon, a period expected to extend between November of this year and March of next year. “We are watching what could be the second phase, which is expected to be the strongest,” Espada explains. This stretch, associated with heavy rains, could damage infrastructure and cause road closures.

This generates larger losses, he adds, “damaging the economy’s payment chain,” though he also notes that both businesses and the government are taking measures to prepare, especially in specific areas.

All in all, the expectation is that the impact will be widespread. ECLAC calculations point to an extreme El Niño generating a cumulative loss of at least 2% of regional GDP over a three-year period, “half of which will be concentrated in the first year following the climate event.” At the same time, they expect the effect on households could increase poverty in Latin America by up to 4.8 million people toward the end of the decade, compared to a scenario without the climate phenomenon.

Main Effects

“Countries in Latin America and Southeast Asia tend to be among the most exposed. Economies like Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Indonesia, and the Philippines are particularly sensitive given their exposure to agriculture, fishing, and weather-dependent energy infrastructure,” Neuberger notes. Ecuador, for example, gets 78% of its energy from hydroelectric sources, meaning a severe drought could affect energy supply, driving up prices and impacting growth.

On the other hand, some countries could even benefit, as rainfall patterns could support agriculture and power generation. “Argentina, for example, where agriculture represents around 50% of exported goods, benefits from heavier rains in its agricultural heartland of the Pampas,” the asset manager indicated in a recent market commentary. Paraguay could also benefit on the energy side.

The financial sector could also be affected by El Niño, although “it is still too early to gauge the impact,” as highlighted by JPMorgan. Banco do Brasil, for instance, is seen as the most exposed firm, given that agribusiness is linked to a third of its credit portfolio. However, since clear performance trends in soybeans and corn have not emerged in previous cycles, “it is too early to determine a direction.” For now, they anticipate the company will continue to be impacted.

Among insurers, they identified India’s IRB and Brazil’s BB Seguridade Participações as the most exposed to the climate risk associated with the phenomenon, followed by Porto Seguro, also Brazilian. “We recall that agricultural business insurance primarily protects against production losses, rather than price fluctuations,” they emphasized in a recent report.

Leopoldo Ferris Wallis Joins Insigneo’s Network of Investment Professionals

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyLeopoldo Ferris Wallis, Investment Professional at Insigneo

Insigneo, a leading international wealth management firm, is pleased to welcome Leopoldo “Leo” Ferris Wallis as an Investment Professional. Based in New York, Ferris joins Insigneo’s network of professionals, bringing more than three decades of experience in international wealth management, private banking, and offshore business development. Ferris will conduct his wealth management business through REL Capital, an entity registered as a d/b/a within Insigneo’s network, reflecting both his established practice and Insigneo’s model of supporting advisor-led businesses through its comprehensive wealth management platform.

“Joining Insigneo represents an exciting step in my career and an opportunity to continue growing REL Capital through a platform with robust international capabilities,” said Leopoldo Ferris Wallis, Investment Professional at Insigneo. “I look forward to continuing to serve clients with a tailored approach, while leveraging the resources and solutions available across the Insigneo network.”

Prior to joining Insigneo, Ferris served as Senior Vice President at Oppenheimer & Co. in New York, where he managed client portfolios and developed long-term relationships with institutional and high-net-worth private clients. His career also includes senior positions at Morgan Stanley, Banco Santander International, Banco Español de Crédito, Banco Provincial (BBVA), and Banvenez Trading. Throughout his career, he has focused on complex portfolios, strategic market development, and tailored solutions for high-net-worth individuals and institutional clients. Ferris holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Indiana University Bloomington and an MBA from Boston University. He also completed the Advanced Management Program at IESA in Caracas, Venezuela.

“We are delighted to welcome Leo to Insigneo and to our growing New York team,” noted Alfredo J. Maldonado, Market Head for New York and the U.S. Northeast at Insigneo. “His extensive background in international wealth management, private banking, and cross-border markets will be a valuable addition to our network, and we look forward to supporting him as he continues to build his business and serve his clients.” The addition of Ferris further strengthens Insigneo’s presence in New York and underscores the firm’s ongoing focus on attracting experienced investment professionals seeking a platform built to support independent, client-centric business models.

Ted Stratigos (Aladdin Wealth Tech): “Institutions Demand Technology Capable of Connecting Investment Ideas, Model Portfolios, Execution, and Oversight”

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyTed Stratigos, Global Head of Aladdin Wealth Tech.

As wealth management continues to evolve, institutions are seeking ways to combine the personalization and trust of traditional private banking with the scale, efficiency, and analytical capabilities demanded by today’s clients. In the experience of Ted Stratigos, Global Head of Aladdin Wealth Tech, this requires technology that empowers advisors through a comprehensive view of client needs, deeper portfolio analysis, and the ability to deliver consistent, tailored advice with greater confidence and efficiency. We discussed and reflected on these topics in this interview with him.

What specific needs do wealth management and private banking institutions have?

In addition to seeking technology that empowers advisors, many institutions are expanding their discretionary portfolio management capabilities. This creates demand for technology capable of delivering portfolio construction, execution, and monitoring in a scalable way for large client bases, while maintaining the appropriate levels of personalization and oversight.

What do these institutions value most when selecting a tech provider?

The most important consideration is whether a platform helps advisors deliver more informed and personalized advice, while reinforcing, rather than replacing, the relationship between advisor and client. In markets where private banking is heavily relationship-driven, institutions seek technology that supports more proactive advice, a clearer view of portfolios, and more personalized client interaction at scale. They also demand reliable analytics, risk supervision, and integrated workflows for both advisory and discretionary management, featuring technology that adapts to the systems advisors already use. Increasingly, institutions are also looking for flexibility, transparency, and applicability, including AI capabilities grounded in high-quality data and robust governance frameworks.

What does Aladdin Wealth offer, and why do you think it is one of the most widely used platforms in the market?

Aladdin Wealth is designed to help advisors move from insight to action within a single, connected platform. By integrating data, analytics, portfolio construction, risk supervision, and advisor workflows, it enables institutions to operate from a shared view of the client and their portfolio. The platform brings institutional-grade technology and risk analytics to the wealth management space, helping advisors and discretionary managers handle portfolio complexity more effectively.

What is its key aspect for advisory services?

A key aspect is that Aladdin Wealth supports both advisory and discretionary management business models. As wealth managers seek to scale their management capabilities while preserving a personalized client experience, institutions demand technology capable of connecting investment ideas, model portfolios, execution, and ongoing oversight across the entire value chain. Furthermore, it is important to note that the transformation of wealth management extends beyond traditional private banking. Institutions are seeking technology platforms that can support a broader range of client segments and business models.

Aladdin Wealth offers integrated workflows across various wealth management businesses, supporting private banking, asset managers, mass affluent, and retail banking segments. This helps institutions create a more connected, consistent, and scalable ecosystem for portfolio management, client interaction, and investment decision-making. Instead of devoting resources to maintaining fragmented tech environments, institutions can focus on what sets them apart most: delivering high-quality advice, superior client service, and a more personalized experience.

Where is technology heading in the wealth management and private banking sector?

The sector is moving toward a future where technology, data, and human expertise collaborate to deliver more personalized advice at scale. Technology will play a crucial role by allowing managers to execute their investment ideas, monitor risk, and maintain portfolio oversight, enabling personalization where appropriate. We anticipate that AI and intelligent automation will become increasingly integrated into the advisor’s workflow—from synthesizing portfolio insights and detecting opportunities to supporting client communication and generating investment proposals.

Wealth management firms are shifting from building and maintaining tech infrastructure to using technology as a strategic driver of growth, differentiation, and client service. The winning institutions will be those that combine reliable data, intelligent automation, and human judgment, allowing advisors to deepen client relationships, respond faster to changing market conditions, and deliver more relevant advice in an increasingly complex investment environment.

How is Aladdin Wealth responding to this evolution?

Aladdin Wealth already incorporates AI-based capabilities designed to help advisors work more efficiently and make more informed decisions. However, the effectiveness of these tools will ultimately depend on the quality of the underlying data, the strength of governance frameworks, and the ability to explain analytics in a way that advisors and clients can understand and trust. Importantly, we view AI as an enhancement to the advisor’s capabilities and workflows, never as a replacement. Wealth management is built on personal relationships and trust; AI represents an opportunity to free up advisor time so they can focus on what truly matters.

Underlying Trends in the ETF Industry

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The U.S. ETF sector has expanded significantly over recent decades, both in product variety and total volume. According to JPMorgan data, as of late August, there were more than 5,100 ETFs listed in the United States, representing approximately $16.4 trillion in assets under management. "New launches remain robust as providers address new investment themes, offer more granular exposures, expand investment universe coverage, diversify the range of structured outcomes, and continue transferring active management strategies into the ETF wrapper," the firm notes.

Against a backdrop of global growth in exchange-traded funds, JPMorgan highlights four prominent trends currently shaping the global ETF industry:

1. Active ETFs Continue Rapid Expansion

Active products have accounted for more than 60% of new ETF launches in each of the last six years. In the United States, active ETFs now outnumber passive ones, with year-over-year asset growth of around 80%, reaching $1.8 trillion. They are also a key driver for issuers and investors in international markets such as EMEA, where assets under management have roughly doubled year-over-year to $122 billion.

2. Option-Based ETFs Are Booming

Option-based ETFs utilize options contracts (calls and puts) to achieve specific objectives, most commonly income generation (yield) and downside risk mitigation (hedging). Assets in U.S. option-based ETF strategies grew approximately 50% year-over-year to roughly $280 billion (as of mid-May 2026). Covered call funds, which sell call options to generate income, remain the largest segment. However, the fastest growth is occurring in structured outcome ETFs, which aim to deliver payoff profiles similar to structured products.

3. Rise of Leveraged ETFs

Leveraged ETFs, which use debt and financial derivatives to amplify the daily returns of an underlying benchmark index, have also gained popularity. Over the past decade, assets under management (AUM) in U.S.-listed leveraged ETFs have increased nearly sixfold, reaching around $175 billion in equity strategies and over $190 billion across all asset classes (as of mid-May 2026). Growth has been increasingly concentrated in technology-linked exposures, including the Nasdaq, and single-stock leveraged products.

4. Resurgence of Thematic ETFs

Thematic ETFs experienced a major surge early in the pandemic as investor demand grew for exposures tied to innovation and digitalization. Many of these themes subsequently underperformed significantly in late 2021 and throughout 2022 due to market saturation and valuation compression, resulting in a prolonged demand slump. However, they have rebounded over the past year, with themes linked to artificial intelligence development and physical infrastructure buildout attracting substantial capital inflows.