The Indexed “American Dream”: How Trump Accounts Aim to Turn Childhood Savings Into Real Wealth

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Donald Trump
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The U.S. Department of the Treasury appointed BNY as the financial custodian for the Trump Accounts program on April 6, 2026, tasking the firm with managing the initiative’s national infrastructure. The program, BNY CEO Robin Vince explained, is based on a clear diagnosis: “Forty percent of Americans have no participation in the stock market. And in the world we live in, that’s a problem, because it means 40% of Americans have no connection to the country, to the capital markets, or to our capitalist system,” he said during the INSITE 2026 Summit.

The policy response, he added, is as simple as it is ambitious: “The idea is to give every American, from an early age, a stake in the capital markets, in the stock market, and the opportunity to build wealth and become part of the American Dream.”

The initiative has received support from both sides of the political spectrum as well as from Silicon Valley, where the concept originated. The Trump Accounts were created under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and are structured as investment accounts for individuals under the age of 18.

Robert Vince, CEO of BNY

Who can open an account and how

All individuals under the age of 18 with a valid Social Security number are eligible to hold a Trump Account. Children born between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2028, qualify for the federal government’s initial $1,000 contribution. Those born outside that window may also open an account, but without the seed contribution. Enrollment is available through TrumpAccounts.gov or by submitting IRS Form 4547. According to the program, accounts will begin accepting contributions on July 4, 2026.

Families and third parties may contribute up to $5,000 annually. Employers may contribute up to $2,500 per year within that same overall limit. BNY has also committed to matching the federal contribution for all employees with children, Vince said. Nvidia, Goldman Sachs, and Uber, among other companies, have likewise pledged to match the Treasury’s initial contribution for their employees’ children.

How the money is invested and what happens at age 18

The default investment is a broad U.S. equity ETF tracking the S&P 500, with management fees capped at 0.10% per year. During the accumulation phase, investments are limited exclusively to index funds or ETFs tracking broad U.S. equity indices. Cash holdings, money market funds, leverage, and investments outside broad U.S. equity indexes are not permitted.

The funds remain inaccessible until the beneficiary turns 18, at which point the account is automatically converted into a Traditional IRA (Individual Retirement Account). From then on, the standard IRA rules apply: withdrawals made before age 59½ are taxed as ordinary income and may be subject to a 10% early withdrawal penalty.

According to Vince, the program’s real strength lies in its long-term investment horizon. He illustrated the concept with a compound growth example: “If you put that money into the account and invest it in an index fund, and you assume the same returns the U.S. stock market has delivered over the past 30 years, those $2,000 become $40,000 over 30 years.” He went further: “If that family sets aside just $10 a week during those same 30 years, the $40,000 becomes $140,000 by the time that child turns 30. That’s real wealth creation. That’s real participation in the American Dream.”

BNY and Robinhood: partners behind the infrastructure

As the program’s financial agent, BNY will manage the national infrastructure while partnering with brokerage platform Robinhood to provide the program’s initial brokerage and custody services. Together, the two firms will develop the program’s application, allowing families to easily access and manage their accounts.

The appointment reflects BNY’s existing role within the U.S. financial system. The bank already manages much of the government’s critical financial infrastructure, settling all U.S. Treasury auctions while the Federal Reserve’s open market operations rely on its technology.

“We provide critical services to the U.S. government. This was an opportunity to take our technology, our capabilities, and truly serve the United States through this public policy initiative,” Vince said.

To conclude, Vince issued a direct challenge to the firms attending INSITE 2026: “Whether you’re a company of five people, 500 people, or 5,000 people, are you in a position to match the contribution for each of your employees’ children?” For BNY, administering the program is also a statement of purpose. “We’re incredibly proud to play this role as America’s bank,” he said.

Principal Asset Management Expands Its ETF Offering With a New Fixed Income Suite

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Principal Asset Management announced the launch of Principal Fit, a new suite of fixed income exchange-traded funds (ETFs) consisting of four newly launched vehicles, as the firm looks to strengthen its capabilities in the asset class and provide investors with more targeted tools to navigate changing market conditions.

The new platform complements the Principal Investment Grade Corporate ETF (IG), giving the firm a lineup of five fixed income ETFs designed to support income generation, portfolio diversification, and positioning across different duration, inflation, and credit risk scenarios.

The launch comes at a time when fixed income markets are facing greater complexity due to interest rate expectations, inflationary pressures, and evolving credit spreads. As a result, institutional investors and financial advisors are increasingly seeking more specialized solutions that enable them to adjust portfolio allocations more efficiently.

“In today’s environment, broad exposure is often less effective than more targeted approaches,” said Michael Goosay, Global Head of Fixed Income and Chief Investment Officer at Principal Asset Management, noting that the new ETF family was designed to help investors make allocation decisions as market conditions evolve.

Exposure to specific segments

The new Principal Fit suite is structured to provide exposure to specific areas of the fixed income universe, allowing investors to combine strategies based on their views on inflation, interest rates, and credit quality.

Among the new products are:

Principal Inflation Protection ETF (RIZE), focused on inflation-sensitive securities and designed to help mitigate the impact of rising price levels.

Principal Securitized Debt ETF (WDE), providing access to the securitized debt and structured credit markets.

Principal Long Duration ETF (DWWN), designed for investors seeking exposure to longer-duration bonds and strategies linked to interest rate movements.

Principal CLO ETF (UUPP), focused on collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), offering exposure to floating-rate instruments through an income-oriented strategy.

The firm noted that the funds can be used individually or combined within a broader portfolio, depending on market conditions and each investor’s positioning needs.

Principal expands its ETF offering

With these launches, Principal Asset Management now offers 16 ETFs, managing approximately $10.4 billion in assets across its ETF platform.

The new funds trade on the Cboe BZX Exchange under the tickers UUPP, DWWN, WDE, and RIZE, while the Principal Investment Grade Corporate ETF continues to trade under the ticker IG.

The expansion of the platform reflects the growing importance of fixed income ETFs among wealth managers and institutional investors, a segment that has gained prominence in recent years as investors seek more liquid, transparent, and flexible vehicles to manage exposure to different market factors.

Against a backdrop of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty and changing global interest rate expectations, specialized fixed income strategies continue to gain traction, driving further innovation across the ETF industry.

Giorgia Baistrocchi (Pictet Alternative Advisors): “The Clearest Entry Point in a Generation”

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Photo courtesyGiorgia Baistrocchi, Head of Investor Relations – Real Estate & Infrastructure at Pictet Alternative Advisors.

The traditional reasons for investing in real estate—durable income, inflation protection, diversification and low volatility—have been challenged during this cycle, unlike private equity, private credit and infrastructure, where valuations have become increasingly elevated.

According to Giorgia Baistrocchi, Head of Investor Relations – Real Estate & Infrastructure at Pictet Alternative Advisors, global real estate entered 2026 trading at a substantial discount relative to other risk assets such as listed equities and private credit, both of which have appreciated significantly. If that discount reflected structural deterioration, it would represent a value trap. Instead, she argues that it is largely technical in nature and creates “the clearest entry point in a generation.”

Transaction activity supports the thesis

According to her analysis, global real estate transaction volumes reached $873 billion in 2025, an increase of 11.7% versus 2024 and the second consecutive annual increase since the 2023 trough. Activity was concentrated in residential, prime office and industrial assets (Source: McKinsey / RCA-MSCI), suggesting that demand remains healthy.

“In fact, real estate is the only major private asset class whose weakness is being driven more by technical dislocations than by deteriorating fundamentals. That said, in an environment of higher interest rates and lower liquidity, discipline is essential because the truly investable universe has narrowed. The most attractive opportunities are no longer based on a broad macroeconomic recovery, and institutional investors are rebuilding exposure selectively rather than through passive allocations,” Baistrocchi says.

Four of the five forces that compressed valuations are fading

Baistrocchi argues that four of the five forces that have weighed on real estate valuations and liquidity over recent years are now coming to an end. For more than a decade, capitalization rates offered a substantial premium over the risk-free rate. With the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield now around 4.6%, that spread has largely disappeared, bringing the market back toward historical norms.

“In 2022, while listed portfolios declined sharply, private real estate valuations remained relatively stable. As equities and credit subsequently recovered, asset allocators facing redemption requests rebalanced portfolios by selling real estate—not because they were overweight, but because it was the most readily available illiquid asset to generate liquidity. Those were forced sales that should reverse as portfolio allocations normalize. In addition, the quarterly appraisal process typically used in private real estate smoothed volatility, causing valuations to continue adjusting downward while listed and credit markets had already recovered,” she explains.

Private credit displaced real estate

She also notes that real estate lost part of its appeal as an income-generating asset to private credit, an asset class that has now grown to approximately $2.2 trillion in senior floating-rate debt with lower sensitivity to changes in interest rates. For some managers, private credit now represents a larger share of assets under management than private equity.

However, she points out that private credit has recently faced redemption restrictions, valuation concerns and litigation involving retail-oriented vehicles, where secondary market discounts have reached as much as 35% relative to reported net asset values.

“As a result, investors have begun to reassess the value of the liquidity premium and the perceived liquidity advantage of private credit. Moreover, real estate and private credit were both marketed as independent sources of income, yet they share many of the same characteristics: they are illiquid assets, they can experience mismatches between liquidity and redemptions, and price discovery is often delayed,” she says.

In her view, the key difference is that much of the valuation adjustment has already taken place in real estate, whereas private credit is only beginning that process. Although she does not see systemic risk—default rates in direct lending remain below historical averages and current stress is largely concentrated in semi-liquid retail vehicles—she believes private credit now represents less competition for real estate allocations.

Infrastructure: the new competitor

Turning to infrastructure, Baistrocchi highlights that return dispersion among managers is significantly lower than in real estate. This reflects the sector’s long-duration regulated contracts, inflation-linked revenues and sovereign or quasi-sovereign counterparties.

“Infrastructure offers predictable income streams protected against inflation—the very value proposition that real estate has marketed for the past three decades,” she argues.

Data centers, energy transition assets, telecommunications towers, fiber networks, senior housing and student accommodation have become some of the most sought-after assets among infrastructure managers. Many institutional investors have even created dedicated strategic infrastructure allocations funded by reducing their real estate exposure.

Even so, she warns that infrastructure also shares some of the vulnerabilities currently emerging in private credit: illiquid assets, semi-liquid vehicles and potential gaps between official valuations and secondary market pricing.

“The question is whether the stability of infrastructure cash flows will be sufficient to protect against future liquidity mismatches and confidence shocks. For now, infrastructure represents a significant competitive force for real estate,” she says.

Selectivity has become essential

Finally, Baistrocchi argues that the source of real estate returns has fundamentally changed. In a higher-rate environment, returns can no longer rely on cap-rate compression, multiple expansion or inexpensive leverage.

“Today, the market values buildings more like operating businesses than bond-like income streams. Dispersion between assets continues to widen, making security selection more important than ever,” she says.

Against this backdrop, value-add strategies—income-producing assets requiring operational improvements, repositioning or redevelopment—accounted for 55% of global real estate fundraising during the first quarter of 2026, while opportunistic strategies declined.

In logistics, secular demand continues to be supported by resilient supply chains and reshoring trends, although speculative development has slowed considerably. Office remains far from a full recovery, but improving lending activity and opportunistic buyers targeting supply-constrained prime offices suggest selective opportunities are emerging.

Global investment volumes increased 15% year over year during the first quarter of 2026, led by North America (+19%), followed by Asia-Pacific (+15%) and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (+14%). By sector, investment remained concentrated in multifamily residential, industrial assets and prime offices.

Industrial accounted for 47% of global fundraising, while data centers stabilized at around 25%. North America attracted 65% of investment flows into the data center segment, up from 30% previously, reflecting growing investor demand for regional rather than global strategies.

Regarding capital structures, Baistrocchi sees the most compelling opportunities in recapitalizations, preferred equity and structured equity investments, as well as single-asset continuation vehicles.

“Preferred equity is particularly attractive for acquiring high-quality assets financed under a very different interest-rate environment. Recapitalization opportunities should continue expanding as the refinancing wall approaches. By contrast, passive core strategies—which prioritize stable, lower-risk assets—are in a weaker position because higher risk-free rates make it increasingly difficult for assets with limited upside potential to generate sufficient excess returns,” she concludes.

Guinness Global Investors Expands Its Real Assets Platform With a New Acquisition

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Guinness Global Investors (Guinness) has announced the acquisition of Foresight Capital Management (FCM), the public markets division of Foresight Group. The transaction includes seven investment strategies focused on listed real assets and sustainable and impact investing funds.

According to the firm, FCM’s listed real assets team will be integrated into Guinness’ Real Assets team, led by Mark Brennan, who helped develop and manage these strategies at FCM before joining Guinness. Meanwhile, Nick Scullion, Partner and Head of FCM, will remain at Foresight.

“The diversification benefits offered by listed real assets are more relevant than ever in today’s markets. Reuniting Mark Brennan with the funds he launched at FCM represents an excellent opportunity to strengthen our real assets investment platform,” said Edward Guinness, CEO of Guinness Global Investors.

For his part, Mark Brennan, Portfolio Manager at Guinness, commented: “The addition of these strategies and the listed real assets team to Guinness accelerates our growth plans by providing greater scale and expanding our investment team.”

Eric Bright and Mayank Markanday, Portfolio Managers at FCM, added: “Guinness will provide our listed real assets teams with an outstanding platform to support future growth. Collaborating with Guinness and with Mark is a natural evolution that will allow us to expand our capabilities.”

WHEB Strategies

The transaction also includes WHEB’s sustainable and impact investing team, now part of FCM, which will work alongside the Guinness team responsible for the Guinness Sustainable Energy strategy, launched in 2006, and the Guinness Global Environment strategy, launched in 2025.

WHEB’s impact investing approach—widely regarded as a market benchmark—will be maintained. Its framework combines the impact generated by portfolio companies with the contribution made by investors, while incorporating measurement criteria, stewardship, corporate governance, and transparency.

Edward Guinness added: “FCM’s WHEB team is recognized as a thought leader in responsible investing and will strengthen the expertise we have built at Guinness in this area. FCM’s WHEB funds offer attractive long-term prospects, and their portfolio companies are currently trading at historically low relative valuations.”

Ted Franks, Portfolio Manager of the impact strategies, said: “We have always admired Guinness’ disciplined investment and research process, as well as its expertise in areas closely aligned with our strategies. The integration will create a larger investment team, and I am very excited about this new chapter.”

The Strait of Hormuz, Inflation, and Interest Rates: What Will Warsh’s Message Be?

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Geopolitics and the agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—which is expected to provide relief to markets—set the stage for a week in which inflation and monetary policy return to the forefront. It is a busy week for central banks, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) are both expected to leave rates unchanged.

What these three institutions have in common—along with the European Central Bank (ECB), which met last week and raised rates by 25 basis points—is that persistent inflationary pressures are testing their resolve. Undoubtedly, the announced peace agreement between Iran and the United States adds a new dimension to the current environment and to inflation expectations.

“After weeks of negotiations and swings between optimism and pessimism, it appears that a key diplomatic milestone has been reached to bring the war with Iran to an end. There will be setbacks along the way, but the path out of the crisis now seems clear. The energy crisis has been far less threatening than feared, as markets have once again demonstrated their resilience. While several long-term uncertainties remain, energy markets appear to be heading back toward a situation similar to the previous one, where oversupply dominates. We maintain our cautious outlook and expect further downward pressure on oil prices,” says Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer.

According to investment managers, global central banks—including the Fed—are likely to maintain a hawkish stance to combat persistent energy-related inflationary pressures. Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, International Economist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, argues that this stance is reinforced by oil prices remaining at around $85 per barrel, adding approximately one percentage point to inflation this year. “In addition, the prolonged closure of the Strait has already triggered visible second-round inflation effects. At the same time, extremely tight credit spreads leave very little room for further compression,” he notes.

Focus on the Fed: Growth and Inflation

However, the greatest attention is focused on the Federal Reserve, and not only because it marks Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair. “While Donald Trump continues to call for rate cuts and some observers still expect one, the arguments in favor of such a monetary policy move do not withstand even the most basic analysis,” says Enguerrand Artaz, strategist at La Financière de l’Échiquier (LFDE).

From a growth perspective, the recent trend has been decidedly positive: economic growth remains solid, investment continues to expand thanks to AI, and the labor market is once again strengthening, with more sectors participating in the recovery. “This last point is especially important because, beyond being positive for consumer spending, it directly affects one of the Federal Reserve’s two mandates,” Artaz adds.

As for inflation, the latest figures clearly show an increase driven primarily—as expected—by higher energy prices, but also by a faster rise in services inflation, which is far more troubling for the Fed. Services inflation was the central concern during the Fed’s tightening cycle and, unlike energy prices, is not directly linked to the consequences of the conflict with Iran.

In other words, according to Artaz, “the Fed is simultaneously facing a resurgence in inflation—even excluding energy—and an economic cycle that continues to accelerate. It is difficult to envision a rate cut in such an environment, and markets are already pricing in a rate hike in 2026. Nevertheless, it is highly likely that Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, will at least try to preserve the status quo for as long as possible amid pressure from the White House.”

Warsh’s First Meeting

Regarding what to expect from Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, most investment managers expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, in line with market consensus and investor expectations. They also agree that he may remove the accommodative bias that has been in place since the current easing cycle began in September 2024. For some, this shift in tone would reflect a more balanced approach and, above all, growing concern over persistent inflation.

“The new Chair, Kevin Warsh, faces his first meeting in an especially complex environment. He inherits the most divided committee in more than three decades: three voting members had already opposed the accommodative bias in April, while outgoing Governor Stephen Miran once again voted in favor of a rate cut. The minutes make it clear that the committee’s internal balance has shifted toward a more hawkish stance, given the increasing uncertainty surrounding the duration and economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Recent data have done little to dispel those concerns,” says Michael Krautzberger, CIO of Global Public Markets at Allianz Global Investors.

According to Alessia Berardi, Head of Global Macroeconomics at the Amundi Investment Institute, this week’s meeting is not really about interest rates. “There is not much focus on rates themselves, but rather on Kevin Warsh’s first press conference and how he will balance the demands of President Trump with those of the bond market. Inflation is rising and the economy remains resilient—particularly the labor market, which is not cooling. The emerging agreement with Iran may make that balancing act easier for now. Questions about the balance sheet are expected during the press conference, although there are unlikely to be any clear answers.”

Finally, Benoit Anne, Senior Managing Director and Head of the Investment Insight Group at MFS Investment Management, highlights two key questions ahead of this week’s meeting: Will the median projection indicate no change in interest rates throughout 2026, which seems plausible? And will it continue to point toward some degree of monetary easing in 2027?

In his view, the broader issue is how the Fed’s communication strategy will evolve going forward. “This matters because Fed signals continue to move markets. The era of forward guidance may be coming to an end. Looking back, this tool appears to have gradually lost its effectiveness. It worked when interest rates were low and stable, and when the macroeconomic environment seemed relatively predictable. Going forward, we believe the Fed faces a challenging environment: persistent inflation, political pressure, and the challenge for a new Chair of building consensus around monetary policy,” Anne concludes.

“It’s Never Too Late to Invest”: J.P. Morgan’s View on the AI Supercycle

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Nur Cristiani, responsable de Estrategia de Inversión para América Latina
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Nur Cristiani, Head of Investment Strategy for Latin America at J.P. Morgan, believes the artificial intelligence supercycle has yet to reach its peak: value is only beginning to shift from infrastructure to platforms and applications, opening a new phase of opportunities. In this interview with Funds Society, she discusses the concentration risks facing Latin American investors, the less obvious opportunities the firm is monitoring—from defense to gold and emerging markets—and why she believes there is still room for investors who have not yet taken positions.

What stage of the AI supercycle are we in: early, accelerating, or mature?

We believe we are still in the acceleration phase. So far, much of the value created in the markets has been driven by infrastructure companies, both physical and digital. Only recently have we begun to see part of that value shift toward the platform and application layers.

Comparisons with the dot-com bubble come up constantly. Is that a valid analogy, or does it create more confusion than clarity?

When we talk about a “bubble,” we need to be careful and distinguish whether we are referring to market valuations or episodes of exuberance. We do see some exuberance in certain AI-related segments, but we do not believe we are at a point of valuation excess in the technology sector. In fact, if we consider growth expectations over the next three years, technology sector valuations remain below those of other sectors in the market. And while there is always uncertainty about the sustainability of recent growth trends, the reality is that technology companies continue to significantly outperform market expectations quarter after quarter. Moreover, comparisons with the dot-com bubble often imply high levels of leverage. Today’s situation is different: these companies are funding their growth with their own revenues and earnings, not with debt.

How are your high-net-worth clients in Latin America responding to this cycle? Are they more anxious to invest or more cautious?

Our clients have participated in this trend and maintain varying levels of exposure depending on their investment objectives and mandates. However, what we are seeing today is that every new dollar invested is seeking greater diversification. Not necessarily away from the AI theme, but toward broader exposure to other sectors and asset classes that could benefit from the next phase of value creation.

What is the most common mistake sophisticated private investors make during a technology cycle of this magnitude?

Concentration. In the early stages of value creation, some positions can appreciate significantly and end up representing an excessive share of a portfolio. This can create too much dependence on a single sector—or even a single company. That is why it is important to use those gains as an opportunity to diversify and maintain portfolio resilience, whether through active or passive strategies.

Is there a risk of becoming overexposed to AI within a portfolio? What would be a reasonable allocation to this theme for a long-term investor?

Rather than a risk of overexposure to AI itself, we see a risk of concentration in specific sectors or companies. We believe AI will drive productivity and efficiency gains across the entire economy, creating growth opportunities in multiple industries. However, asset selection will be critical because companies will benefit from this technology at different times and to different degrees.

When designing an AI allocation for a Latin American client, where do you start: companies directly linked to AI, enabling infrastructure, or thematic funds?

We always start with the core portfolio—that is, a well-diversified strategy aligned with the client’s objectives and risk tolerance. From that foundation, we add complementary positions to overweight specific themes or sectors. We currently have a positive view on technology, as well as related sectors such as industrials and utilities, and that view is reflected in our asset allocation recommendations. How that exposure is implemented depends on each client. We offer actively managed solutions, where professional managers continuously rebalance portfolios, but we also work with clients who prefer to build this exposure directly through public or private markets.

Beyond the major U.S. technology companies, are there less obvious opportunities that J.P. Morgan is watching closely?

We see attractive opportunities in the security and defense sectors, both in public and private markets, in an increasingly fragmented global environment. We also believe gold remains an important portfolio diversifier. And speaking of diversification, we see compelling opportunities in emerging markets, particularly in an environment where we expect the U.S. dollar to remain structurally weak.

What is the main AI-related risk that the market is still underestimating?

Our main concern is the circularity of certain investments and the exuberance we see in some specific segments related to this technology. There will be winners and losers, which is why careful asset selection and active management will remain essential.

Regulation, geopolitics, market concentration: which of these factors creates the most uncertainty when building a long-term investment thesis?

All three. That is precisely why the foundation of our recommendations is always a well-diversified portfolio across sectors, themes, and regions. On top of that foundation, we add active thematic allocations to the opportunities we believe are best positioned to benefit under different scenarios.

For the Latin American investor who has not yet taken a position, is it already too late, or does the cycle still have room to run?

It is never too late to be invested. We remain constructive on the markets and on the opportunities we see ahead, both in public and private assets. As stewards of our clients’ wealth, whose objective is to preserve and grow their assets over the long term, we believe staying out of the market can be riskier than weathering temporary periods of volatility.

How Have Pension Funds Changed Their Approach to Asset Allocation?

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Global pension assets have reached record highs, surpassing $68.3 trillion, but how has their asset allocation evolved? According to the Global Pension Assets Study published by the Thinking Ahead Institute (TAI) and sponsored by WTW, across the seven largest pension markets, over the past 20 years, the allocation to equities has declined by 9%, representing 48% of total assets, while allocations to bonds and other asset classes have increased by 3% and 6%, respectively, reaching 31% and 19% of total assets.

Looking specifically at last year, when pension assets exceeded $68.3 trillion, global markets delivered broad-based gains, with most major asset classes generating positive returns. “Equities performed particularly well, while fixed income also posted gains in light of global interest-rate cuts and narrowing credit spreads,” noted Jessica Gao, Director of the Thinking Ahead Institute.

Looking ahead to 2026, Gao highlights that fiscal support and AI-related investment should continue to be important drivers of growth. “Inflation trends and central bank actions will be key, particularly in the U.S., where strong capital spending and supportive fiscal policy may continue to drive growth and keep yields relatively elevated,” she added.

Change in Approach

The main conclusion of the report is that the current aggregate asset allocation more closely resembles that of 15 years ago. In addition, it argues that the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) has reached a defining moment, as portfolios have moved beyond traditional asset-class silos. “What began as a cutting-edge concept among a small group of asset owners has entered the mainstream, supported by high-profile adopters. This shift reflects a growing recognition that managing today’s portfolios requires whole-portfolio decision-making rather than asset-class optimization, as well as organizational and portfolio resilience rather than simply managing volatility and tracking-error risks,” the report explains in its conclusions.

According to WTW, the TPA framework changes the fundamental question: “It is no longer about how an asset performs in isolation, but rather how each exposure contributes to the fund’s overall objectives, making this approach both a test of organizational maturity and an investment framework.”

In this regard, the report argues that a total portfolio perspective is better suited to the interconnected risks investors now face, including inflation, liquidity, concentration, systemic, and climate risks, all of which cut across asset classes. “TPA supports more coherent portfolio construction by clarifying the role of each exposure, the next unit of risk the fund is willing to assume, and the trade-offs among private market opportunities, liquidity, and long-term resilience. Its focus on integrated decision-making and enhanced data helps investors manage risk over time—not just short-term volatility—and promotes adaptability through scenario analysis and a broader view of risk than traditional models allow,” the report states in its conclusions.

It further argues that TPA is particularly important now because the investment environment is more uncertain, complex, and interdependent than the governance models for which many funds were originally designed. “Rapid technological change and rising political and systemic risks require frameworks that can operate with less certainty and less model stability. TPA addresses this by enabling faster and more coordinated decision-making, supported by better data, technology, and an organization-wide perspective,” the report concludes.

CME Group and Morningstar Announce Exclusive Licensing Agreement for Index Derivatives

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Morningstar has announced the signing of a multi-year licensing agreement that will allow CME Group to launch derivative products based on several of Morningstar’s flagship equity indexes, including the Morningstar US Total Market, Large Cap, Large Cap Value, Large Cap Growth, Mid Cap, and Small Cap indexes.

CME Group will offer derivatives linked to Morningstar Market Indexes for the first time, as these benchmarks undergo rebranding following the integration of CRSP. This will enable clients to access derivatives tied to indexes that serve as benchmarks for more than $3 trillion in assets.

The agreement will expand the range of investment and hedging instruments linked to some of the most widely used U.S. equity indexes. As a result, investors will gain access to tools for managing risk and taking positions across different segments of the market, from large-cap companies to mid- and small-cap stocks.

“We are delighted to collaborate with CME Group to bring derivative products linked to Morningstar Market Indexes to market for the first time. These are among the most comprehensive and representative benchmarks of the U.S. equity market,” said Amelia Furr, President of Morningstar Indexes. “Following the acquisition of CRSP earlier this year, we have become the leading provider of U.S. equity indexes, and this new relationship with CME Group will further accelerate our growth. Most excitingly, we expect to open new opportunities and bring our high-quality equity indexes to an entirely new segment of the global investment market.”

“We are pleased to partner with Morningstar to help develop next-generation risk management tools that are more precise and effective for the global investment community,” said Tim McCourt, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Equity, FX, and Alternative Products at CME Group. “The combination of CME Group’s highly liquid equity derivatives marketplace with Morningstar’s data and index ecosystem will allow us to provide clients around the world with an enhanced framework for confidently managing market volatility and capitalizing on new investment opportunities.”

Harvey Schwartz of Carlyle: “Demand for Private Capital Will Be Extraordinary”

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Harvey Schwartz, de Carlyle
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Harvey Schwartz, CEO of The Carlyle Group, was unequivocal during Insite 2026, an event organized by BNY: the world is undergoing a structural reconfiguration of the global economy that will create unique investment opportunities, and the wealth segment will be one of its main drivers.

For Schwartz, the current moment leaves no room for half measures. “I believe this is the most important inflection point in capital formation that I have seen in my lifetime,” he stated. The argument is straightforward: the major trends that shaped finance for decades—disinflation, declining interest rates, manageable deficits, and global economic integration—have either reversed or been put on hold. The only force that continues unabated is technology.

The geopolitical backdrop is central to his analysis. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he argued, was “one of the most significant events of this century, perhaps of the last 50 years,” and, together with the conflict in the Middle East, it has completely reshaped government priorities. “Everywhere I go in the world—Japan, South Korea, Beijing, Central Europe—the narrative is always the same: national security, economic growth, and political stability,” he said.

But there has been a key redefinition of that concept. “Historically, national security was synonymous with defense. Now it is a much broader concept: it includes energy security and data security.” And that expansion, according to Schwartz, is precisely where private capital flows will be concentrated over the coming years.

Defense, Energy, and Other Sectors Where Carlyle Sees Opportunities

The Carlyle CEO was specific about the sectors expected to attract investment. Aerospace and defense, industrials, and healthcare top the list, all of them increasingly converging with technological advancement. “Look at all the defense investment announcements around the world: Canada, Europe, Japan. The demand is enormous,” he noted.

However, it was on energy that Schwartz made one of his strongest arguments, and where Carlyle holds a distinctive position. “We were the only major private equity firm that maintained a full energy business when energy was unpopular.” That decision, which at the time may have appeared contrary to consensus, now looks strategic: “The conversation around the world has shifted from ‘energy transition’ to ‘energy diversification,’ which is really code for: I need energy security.” Carlyle’s business in this sector ranges from traditional energy to renewables, covering the entire spectrum.

The underlying thesis is that governments cannot finance this transformation on their own. “Deficits are too large. So where will the capital come from? From banks, public markets, and private capital.” And within that trio, private markets—and the financial advisors who channel them—will play a leading role.

Wealth Management as a Driver of Private Capital

Schwartz was direct about the importance the wealth segment will have in this new cycle. “There are 43 million households in the United States that spend $15 trillion a year. That’s the size of China. All of that wealth needs to be managed by this audience,” he told the advisors in attendance.

The executive described how, upon joining Carlyle, he personally set out to listen to financial advisors before making decisions. “I went and spoke with them directly. I asked them what was important to them, about portfolio construction, what their clients needed. And I was surprised by how sophisticated they are. It bothers me when I read articles saying advisors are confused. They are not confused. They manage enormous pools of wealth, as sophisticated as my institutional client base.”

Regarding the product strategy for this segment, Schwartz emphasized diversification as the guiding principle. “You may not own the winning asset that rises 130% or 40%, but you will mitigate much of the downside risk. And as the industry evolves, you have to build the right vehicles for this audience.” The implicit warning was clear: the world is changing too quickly to bet everything on a single sector. “When I arrived at Carlyle, everyone told me the big gap was software. Three years later, nobody likes software.”

Despite the complexity of the environment, Schwartz concluded on an optimistic note. “I believe all of this can be very, very positive for markets. The marginal returns on that capital will be quite attractive over the next decade.” Geopolitical risk is difficult to quantify, he acknowledged, but it also creates inefficiencies that generate opportunities for those with the scale and sector expertise needed to navigate this environment.

Maximilian Kunkel (UBS GWM): “Family Offices Are Actively Diversifying Their Currency Risk”

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Photo courtesyMaximilian Kunkel, Chief Investment Officer, Global Family and Institutional Wealth at UBS GWM.

Sixty percent of family offices plan to modify their strategic asset allocation over the next 12 months. This is the highest percentage ever recorded in the UBS Global Family Office Report 2026 and, according to Maximilian Kunkel, Chief Investment Officer, Global Family and Institutional Wealth at UBS GWM, it reflects “both a defensive reaction to a more complex macroeconomic environment, increased geopolitical uncertainty, and concentration risk, as well as a proactive repositioning to capitalize on new megatrends, particularly artificial intelligence, as well as areas such as infrastructure and emerging markets.”

In addition, a paradigm shift is emerging in currencies: 65% of family offices expect confidence in the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency to weaken in the short term due to concerns about U.S. debt, and 47% acknowledge being overly exposed to the greenback. We spoke with Kunkel about these and other trends highlighted in the report.

Continuing with the currency theme, how is UBS advising clients to structure multi-currency frameworks without compromising the returns of the underlying assets, which are traditionally denominated in U.S. dollars?

With 65% expecting a weaker dollar and nearly half considering themselves overexposed to the currency, family offices are actively diversifying their currency risk. This involves designing multi-currency frameworks that balance diversification with return objectives. In practice, this may mean maintaining strategic allocations to currencies such as the euro and the Swiss franc, while employing hedging strategies to manage foreign exchange risk without undermining the performance of dollar-denominated assets. The goal is to enhance portfolio resilience and flexibility—not to abandon the dollar, but to ensure portfolios are prepared for a range of scenarios.

Interest in AI remains strong, but we are seeing a shift in focus from highly valued software companies toward the physical ecosystem supporting AI. For a fund selector, what is the most efficient way to capture this “second derivative” of AI? Is it time to rotate from purely technology-themed funds into global infrastructure funds?

Interest in artificial intelligence (AI) remains strong, but investors increasingly recognize that the opportunity extends beyond the technology itself and encompasses the entire value chain that supports it, including the energy and resources required for its growth. For investors, this means it is important to take an active management approach not only within the AI universe itself—software, hardware, and applications—but also across the sectors that enable its development, such as commodities, utilities, and industrials, ensuring portfolios are positioned to benefit from innovation throughout the ecosystem.

Historically, gold has represented a modest allocation within family office portfolios (around 2%). However, the 2026 report shows that the average planned allocation has risen to 3%. Are wealthy families increasingly using gold as a structural hedge against the erosion of purchasing power in traditional fiat currencies?

Beyond its role as a safe-haven asset against geopolitical risks, family offices are increasingly using gold as a structural hedge against the loss of purchasing power in fiat currencies. Concerns about rising sovereign debt levels, currency volatility, and geopolitical risks have contributed to this trend. Family offices typically view gold as a long-term store of value and a diversification tool within multi-asset portfolios.

The report highlights a striking geographic divergence: while family offices in Europe and Asia are actively seeking to reduce concentration risk in the United States by diversifying into Asia-Pacific and Western Europe, U.S. family offices have increased their domestic bias from 86% to 88%. How do you explain to a North American family office that concentrating on its domestic market may represent a dangerous concentration risk in the current geopolitical environment?

Global diversification can help mitigate risks arising from domestic disruptions, regulatory changes, or sector-specific slowdowns. It also provides access to opportunities unique to different regions. We believe the most resilient portfolios are those that successfully balance local expertise with global opportunities.

Finally, the report once again highlights a persistent challenge: governance. With the multi-trillion-dollar intergenerational wealth transfer already underway, what are the real risks for financial advisors of losing relationships with these structures if families fail to professionalize their governance today?

Despite significant progress in the institutionalization of investment processes, governance remains an area requiring greater attention. With only one-third of family offices having a defined succession plan and just 27% actively preparing the next generation, there is a risk of losing continuity, family cohesion, and long-term stability as wealth passes from one generation to the next. In the context of the Great Wealth Transfer, professionalizing governance through proactive succession planning and the involvement of younger generations is essential to preserving family wealth, ensuring smooth transitions, and maintaining the effectiveness of family office structures over time.