LatAm archivos - Funds Society

Mexicans Have Become the Second Largest Foreign Buyer of Residential Real Estate in the United States

Mexicans were the second largest group of foreign buyers of residential property in the United States between April 2025 and March 2026, behind only Canada, according to the latest report from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).

During that period, they acquired approximately 9,400 properties—representing 14% of all purchases made by foreigners—with a total value close to 5 billion dollars.

This figure is particularly significant because Mexico ranked above China, India, and the United Kingdom in terms of the number of homes acquired. China, although third in the number of properties, led total expenditure with 7.6 billion dollars, driven by the higher average value of its acquisitions.

The phenomenon deserves attention for an additional reason: it does not appear to stem from a single motivation.

For some Mexicans, a property in the United States represents a second home; for others, a real estate investment, a place for their children to study, a way to facilitate family mobility, or a natural extension of their business activities.

And for a portion of private wealth families, it can represent something even broader: the establishment of a permanent presence on the other side of the border.

Mexico’s results within the US international market take on greater significance when viewed against the overall context.

Foreign purchases in the United States dropped 14% in volume and 19.1% in value during NAR’s latest measurement period, down to 67,100 homes and 45.3 billion dollars, respectively. This marked the second lowest transaction volume since the association began tracking these metrics in 2009.

Amid that contraction, Mexico accounted for 14% of foreign acquisitions, just two percentage points behind Canada.

The data, therefore, does not simply describe an expanding international market. It describes something more specific: the Mexican presence remains one of the most prominent within a foreign buyer market that, overall, lost momentum.

Furthermore, NAR notes that Canada and Mexico—the two countries sharing a border with the United States and its regional trade partners—were the top buyers in terms of property count.

In this context, geography helps explain part of the story, and the border remains important because Mexicans do not purchase US residential real estate following the exact same pattern as other foreign buyers.

The primary destinations for Mexican buyers during the latest period were California, Texas, and Florida, according to NAR.

California shares a particularly deep historical, cultural, and family connection with Mexico, while Florida has for years served as one of the primary destinations for Latin American capital.

However, Texas warrants special attention. The state combines geographic proximity, strong economic ties to Mexico, robust business growth, and a significant population of Mexican origin. That combination is also reshaping the real estate map.

Data from Realtor.com showed that during the first quarter of 2025, Mexico accounted for 5.4% of international web traffic for US residential properties. Mexican search interest was heavily concentrated in markets near the border, such as San Diego, San Antonio, Dallas, El Paso, and Houston.

The rationale provided by the analysis itself is revealing: proximity, cultural and linguistic connections, family and corporate networks, and access to education, healthcare, and global travel. It is not, therefore, strictly an investment decision.

Buying a home can also mean buying mobility; one of the most interesting traits of the Mexican buyer is precisely that their real estate decision can serve multiple simultaneous functions.

A property in the United States can serve as a primary residence, a second home, an investment asset, or a combination of these uses. NAR points out that roughly half of foreign buyers acquired property as a vacation home, a rental investment, or both—a proportion significantly higher than the 17% recorded across existing US home buyers overall.

This helps explain why the phenomenon cannot be reduced to simple residential migration. A family can maintain its primary residence in Mexico while simultaneously purchasing property in Texas or California to facilitate business activities, provide housing for studying children, generate rental income, or simply maintain a permanent footprint in the United States.

Real estate thus becomes a tool for mobility.

The Business Factor

The growing internationalization of Mexican companies may serve as another contextual driver.

The KPMG Global Family Business Report 2026 indicates that 27% of Mexican family businesses consider geographic expansion one of their main strategic priorities heading toward 2035. New product and service development ranks first at 30%, followed by geographic expansion.

This figure does not mean that 27% of those families are buying properties in the United States; there is no evidence to establish a direct causal link.

However, it does show that geographic internationalization is part of the growth strategy for a significant portion of Mexican family businesses.

And when a family business internationalizes, family decisions can also assume an international dimension, involving factors such as: where the entrepreneur lives; where their children study; where the next generation settles; where a portion of family wealth is concentrated; where new corporate relationships are built; and where a second residence is maintained.

The property can become the first visible component of a much broader wealth architecture.

Texas: Where Business and Housing Meet

The rising importance of Texas helps clarify this intersection. Realtor.com found that Texan markets gained traction among international buyers due to a combination of lower relative living costs, business expansion, job creation, and a pro-business environment. Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio stood among the top US markets for international interest in 2025.

For Mexicans, the added advantage is clear: Texas is close, but not only geographically. An established corporate, familial, and cultural infrastructure facilitates mobility between both countries.

This helps explain why cities like Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio prove particularly appealing to Mexicans seeking to combine housing, work, education, and investment.

The border, in these cases, ceases to act as a barrier and begins to function as a shared economic domain.

Yet there is another less visible, albeit highly relevant reason: education. For certain Mexican families, purchasing property in the United States can be tied to children enrolling in American universities.

Realtor.com has identified specific instances where international buyers acquire real estate for family members studying in Texas.

The logic can be straightforward: rather than paying rent over several years, a family with the financial capacity can acquire a property that serves as a residence for their children and, eventually, as a long-term capital asset.

The decision thus blends three variables: education, wealth management, and housing. This helps explain why foreign buyers do not necessarily seek real estate exclusively for their own immediate use.

Mexican private wealth is beginning to take on a more global dimension because real estate purchases are only one part of a broader wealth management relationship.

A family holding real estate in the United States may eventually require financing, insurance, property management, legal services, cross-border tax planning, financial investments, and estate planning structures.

Consequently, the growth of Mexican buyers carries implications extending far beyond the residential market.

For private banks, family offices, financial advisors, asset managers, and international wealth specialists, each property can mark the start of a much broader cross-border financial relationship—which is where concepts like Near-Living gain relevance.

This is not necessarily because all Mexican purchases are linked to nearshoring, but because deeper economic integration can require a family to operate seamlessly across two distinct markets.

Not Yet a Mass Wealth Migration

It is also important to put the phenomenon into perspective. The 9,400 properties acquired by Mexicans represent a small fraction of the vast US residential market. Moreover, NAR does not identify nearshoring as the direct cause of these transactions.

Nor can it be assumed that all buyers are corporate executives or high-net-worth families.

NAR’s definition of a foreign buyer includes both non-resident foreign nationals and resident foreign nationals—meaning recent immigrants and visa holders living in the US for professional, educational, or other reasons.

This distinction is key because it prevents automatically framing the statistic as a story of wealthy Mexicans relocating capital to the United States. The reality is far more nuanced, which is precisely what makes it compelling.

From Foreign Buyer to Binational Economic Citizen

What the data illustrates is an increasingly complex relationship. Mexico stands as the second largest country of origin for foreign home buyers in the United States.

Mexican buyers concentrate acquisitions primarily in California, Texas, and Florida.

Mexican real estate searches show a strong tilt toward border cities and major economic hubs. Mexican family businesses place geographic expansion high among their growth priorities, and the United States remains Mexico’s primary economic partner.

Each metric, taken individually, tells a distinct story. Together, they outline a broader transformation: the border between Mexico and the United States is becoming less relevant for specific corporate, family, and wealth management decisions.

Where nearshoring initially moved corporate entities and supply chains toward Mexico, another movement has emerged—less visible and more personal: Mexicans buying a foothold for their lives in the United States.

A home may be the entry point. What follows can be education, an office, an investment, a business enterprise, an investment account, or a comprehensive wealth structure.

Rather than looking at this simply as Mexicans buying houses in the United States, the phenomenon can be viewed from another angle:

Mexico is already the second largest foreign buyer of US residential real estate; the question now is what drives those acquisitions and how far this evolving mobility of people, businesses, and capital can go.

John Lloyd (Janus Henderson): “Hyperscalers’ Capex Forecasts Consolidate a Multi-Year AI Investment Cycle”

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyJohn Lloyd, Head of Global Multisector Corporate Debt at Janus Henderson.

In the view of John Lloyd, Head of Global Multisector Corporate Debt at Janus Henderson, the corporate credit market is experiencing a strong period mainly for two reasons: corporate earnings growth is solid—especially in the US—and default levels remain low. “Although spreads are historically tight, low default rates still allow for appropriate risk-adjusted pricing. However, tight valuations are forcing investors to rethink asset allocation,” he points out.

The expert considers that the asset class offering the best risk-adjusted return/volatility profile and the most potential for portfolios is corporate credit securitization, as it also provides the widest spread, particularly within the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Regarding the outlook for higher interest rates, Lloyd views it as positive, as it enables the credit market to continue offering attractive yields. “The rise in long-term rates is driven, among other factors, by the sizable US fiscal deficit, estimated between 6% and 7% this year, creating fierce competition for capital with the private sector and AI-related issuance,” he explains.

In his opinion, another consequence of this shifting central bank outlook is that, after five years of inflation above the 2% target in the US, “investors are demanding higher real and annual rates. Flows into credit will continue to be driven primarily by absolute yield levels rather than spread widening,” he acknowledges.

The Hyperscaler Tsunami

Against this market backdrop, one of the key points highlighted by Lloyd is the massive supply of debt approaching the investment grade market to finance AI infrastructure. As he notes, corporate debt issuance is expected to exceed one trillion dollars over the next year, originating mostly from tech hyperscalers. “The tech component of the IG index is estimated to double over the next fiscal year. This huge supply has already caused hyperscalers to underperform the broader market. In light of this oversupply scenario, our strategy has remained heavily underweight in investment grade tech,” he admits.

Lloyd compares this episode to past waves of massive capital expenditure, such as the telecom spectrum rollout in the US, a period during which issuers also underperformed the index. “Spending on AI infrastructure is not a passing fad. Hyperscalers’ capex forecast will rise from over $800 billion today to $1.3 trillion by 2028, consolidating a multi-year AI investment cycle.”

Portfolio Positioning

For Lloyd, a multisector approach amplifies the benefits of active management and optimizes return per unit of volatility. Within its strategy, the firm maintains an overweight in securitized assets relative to traditional corporate debt. “Although their valuations are also tight, they offer better relative value and lower volatility per unit of spread. AAA-rated CLOs stand out, offering attractive yields—around 125 basis points in Europe compared to 80 bps for the IG index—with higher credit quality and lower volatility,” he argues.

Additionally, the portfolio maintains a short duration of between 3 and 5 years, centered at 4 years. As he explains, “this decision responds both to attractive short-to-medium-term yields and to a structural post-COVID shift. Correlations between duration and spreads have turned more positive, making duration less effective as a hedge when rates rise,” he states.

Two asset classes highlighted by the manager and included in the JH Multi-sector Income strategy are emerging market credit and high yield debt, as well as bank loans. Regarding emerging markets, he believes their fundamentals have improved, showing “more credit rating upgrades than downgrades,” while sovereign issuers “demonstrate greater fiscal discipline compared to developed market deficits.” Based on his experience, moreover, “scarce AI-linked debt issuance in emerging markets supports favorable supply-demand dynamics.”

Lastly, he notes that in the case of high yield debt, “we prefer the European loan market over the US market due to its less cyclical nature, lower software exposure, and reduced risk of AI disruption. Furthermore, euro-denominated issuance tranches offer an additional spread of 25 to 50 basis points over their dollar equivalents.”

How a Quantitative or Systematic Fund Works

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

¿Cómo funciona un fondo cuantitativo? — Mutuafondo España F FI obtains Morningstar's highest five-star rating

Systematic investing occupies an increasingly relevant place in the portfolios of institutional and wealth investors worldwide. Understanding how a quantitative or systematic fund (or quant fund) operates is key to evaluating what role it can play within a diversified asset allocation.

The main difference compared to traditional management lies in how decisions are made. A discretionary manager analyzes companies or macro scenarios and makes decisions based on judgment. In a quantitative fund, the team designs a system that executes decisions according to rules established in advance, though human oversight is typically maintained. It operates like a factory of decisions built on data and statistical methods, searching for repeatable market patterns.

It all begins with a hypothesis: for example, that assets that have risen tend to continue doing so for a period of time, or that companies trading cheap relative to their fundamentals outperform over the long term. That concept is converted into concrete rules and tested against historical data before being applied with real capital.

The Stages of the Process

Although each asset manager employs its own methodology, the process generally follows four distinct phases:

Data Collection: Gathering prices, corporate earnings, trading volumes, macroeconomic indicators, and increasingly, alternative data like satellite imagery or credit card transaction records. Data quality is paramount.
Signal Generation: Producing indicators that estimate which assets are likely to outperform or underperform.
Portfolio Construction: An algorithm determines position weights by weighing expected returns, risk levels, and transaction costs.
Execution and Risk Control: Automated order execution combined with strict limits on exposure, volatility, or concentration.

Among the most widespread strategies are factor investing (seeking to capture risk premia associated with attributes like value, momentum, quality, or low volatility), trend-following strategies (typical of systematic CTAs, which take long or short positions based on price direction), and relative value or statistical arbitrage strategies (exploiting temporary mispricings between related assets).

These strategies can be applied across equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities in any market, explaining their global reach.

Advantages and Limitations

Key strengths include strict operational discipline, the mitigation of emotional biases, the capacity to process vast amounts of data, and the ability to diversify across multiple markets simultaneously.

However, unique risks remain:

Overfitting: Designing a model that performs exceptionally well on historical data but fails to maintain results in real-time markets.
Regime Shifts: Structural market changes where historical relationships no longer hold true.
Crowding: Heavy concentration in similar strategies when numerous market participants act on identical signals. Events like August 2007, when multiple equity long-short quant funds suffered simultaneous losses, clearly illustrate this risk.

What Investors Should Evaluate

Before allocating capital, investors should review process transparency, research rigor, risk management frameworks, fee structures, and the fund’s correlation with the rest of the portfolio. A quantitative fund is neither an infallible black box nor a complete replacement for traditional active management, but rather a complementary tool that delivers a distinct, disciplined approach.

Global Wealth: Record High on Paper, Lower in Real Terms

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Global financial assets reached a record €268.4 trillion in 2025, marking an 8.6% increase despite a complex economic and geopolitical landscape, according to the 17th edition of the Allianz Global Wealth Report, which tracks household assets and liabilities across nearly 60 countries.

Wealth creation effectively ran on “autopilot,” driven primarily by equity markets—which accounted for 4 out of every 5 euros of added wealth—while net savings dropped 5.4% to €4.1 trillion. However, inflation significantly tempers this record: while nominal financial assets have expanded by nearly 50% since 2019, real growth stands at just 23%, leaving real purchasing power barely 5% above its 2021 levels.

“Global wealth reached another record in 2025, but that is only half the story. Since 2019, nominal financial assets have grown by 50%, but in real terms, adjusted for inflation, they have grown by only 23%. The situation is worse in Western Europe, where financial assets in real terms are up just 0.5% compared to 2019. That compares to 21% in North America and 70% in China,” noted Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist and Chief Investment Officer at Allianz.

Portfolio Asset Allocation Makes the Difference

Developments in 2025 underscored the growing importance of household asset allocation. On a global scale, securities increased by 12.4%—more than double the growth rate of bank deposits (5.7%) or insurance and pensions (5.0%)—pushing securities to an all-time high of 46.9% of global financial assets. North American households, with 60.7% of their portfolios invested in securities, benefited the most from market performance, generating 51.4% of total global wealth growth.

This structural difference becomes even more pronounced over the long term: over the past decade, asset appreciation accounted for 71% of total financial asset growth in North America, compared to just 36% in Western Europe, illustrating the long-term impact of investing capital versus keeping savings in low-interest bank accounts.

AI as the Next Driver of Wealth—and New Vulnerabilities

Allianz Research estimates that global financial assets could grow by roughly 9% in 2026. Over the medium term, however, the backdrop becomes increasingly challenging due to slower economic growth, persistent inflation, global economic fragmentation, and elevated sovereign debt levels. In this environment, artificial intelligence could emerge as a decisive catalyst for the next phase of wealth creation. “Productivity and profitability gains associated with this technology could support asset returns, though growing reliance on markets driven by AI expectations also introduces new vulnerabilities,” the report states.

The firm notes that with the S&P 500 up nearly 95% since late 2022, a significant portion of recent wealth expansion relies on elevated valuations and AI-driven expectations. According to calculations by Allianz Research, a 25% correction in the S&P 500 could wipe out approximately $27 trillion in U.S. household wealth during the year of impact—equivalent to nearly 14% of their total net worth. Such a pullback would drag on consumer confidence and spending, tipping the U.S. economy into recession.

Furthermore, the advancement of AI raises distributional questions regarding who participates in the wealth generated by this transition. “AI could become the next major driver of wealth, but the key question is who will hold a stake in it. As AI potentially shifts more value creation toward capital, broader participation in capital returns alongside policies supporting worker adaptation will be essential to ensure the AI wealth dividend is shared more widely,” stated Katharina Utermöhl, Head of Thematic and Policy Research at Allianz Research.

Insigneo Adds Mercedes García-Ayuso to Strengthen Its Commitment to Latin American Wealth Management

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Insigneo has announced the appointment of Mercedes García-Ayuso as Head of Investment Products and Executive Director. The professional brings extensive experience in private banking, investment management, and serving high-net-worth clients, placing her at the core of the firm’s growth strategy.

According to the firm’s announcement, García-Ayuso will join its Executive Committee and will be responsible for designing and developing investment solutions aimed at both clients and the firm’s investment professionals across various platforms and geographies.

Her arrival coincides with a particularly significant moment for Insigneo. The U.S.-based firm specializing in international wealth management has accelerated its expansion across the Americas during 2026, particularly strengthening its presence among Latin American clients with international wealth.

Last June, Insigneo completed the integration of client accounts from VectorGlobal Wealth Management Group and its Registered Investment Adviser.

The transaction added nearly $4 billion in client assets, bringing the total assets supported by the platform to approximately $37 billion, with over 500 investment professionals and more than 32,000 clients.

The acquisition also expanded Insigneo’s footprint in markets including Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela, alongside the United States and Canada, according to the firm.

In this context, García-Ayuso’s new role carries a dimension that extends beyond an executive replacement. Her responsibilities will be directly tied to one of the most critical elements for international wealth management platforms: the ability to build investment solutions that translate across markets and serve increasingly global family wealth.

From Goldman Sachs to Citi

García-Ayuso joins Insigneo following an extensive career at some of the leading global financial institutions.

Her track record includes a tenure at Goldman Sachs, where she worked between 2001 and 2008 according to FINRA records, while Citi documentation identifies her as a Client Portfolio Manager at Goldman Sachs Asset Management between 2006 and 2007. She subsequently joined Citi, where her career spanned approximately 18 years.

At Citi Private Bank, she held roles focused on advisory and investments. Regulatory documentation from 2024 identified her as IC Team Leader, while public FINRA records confirm her affiliation with Citigroup Global Markets starting in March 2008.

Insigneo notes that prior to her arrival, García-Ayuso led Citi’s Investment Counseling team serving a major portion of Latin America, excluding Mexico and Brazil.

Her experience therefore combines two dimensions that are particularly relevant to her new position: structuring and supervising investment solutions, and deep familiarity with high-net-worth clients in Latin American markets.

Her academic background includes studies at Universidad Pontificia Comillas (ICADE) in Spain and an MBA from Columbia University, according to regulatory filings in the U.S.

Insigneo Pursues Growth with a Stronger Focus on Latin America

The appointment follows a series of strategic moves reflecting Insigneo’s sustained expansion in international wealth management.

The firm notes that in recent years it acquired Citi’s international wealth management vehicles in Puerto Rico and Uruguay, as well as PNC’s offshore wealth management assets targeting Mexican clients.

In 2026, it added VectorGlobal’s operations, gaining significant exposure to Latin America. This expansion is also reflected in its physical presence: Insigneo currently operates in the United States, Canada, Puerto Rico, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, and Peru, among other markets.

The firm has been taking this strategy directly to the region. In September, it hosted Insigneo 360 LATAM events in Colombia and subsequently brought the program to Lima, holding targeted meetings for clients and investment professionals. In Colombia, for instance, the firm brought together over 250 clients and professionals across Bogotá and Bucaramanga.

The Investment Products department thus takes on heightened importance: as Insigneo integrates new teams, clients, and geographies, it must also broaden and standardize the tools its professionals use to serve investors who increasingly hold assets, businesses, and financial needs across multiple jurisdictions.

Latin American Wealth Increasingly Looks Abroad

This process forms part of a broader transformation within Latin America’s wealth management industry. For global firms, high-net-worth Latin American clients are no longer confined to the investment opportunities of their domestic markets.

Insigneo has built much of its value proposition around access to international markets and a platform designed for professionals serving global clients. In May 2026, the firm refreshed its corporate identity, adopting the tagline “Your Passport to Possibilities” to highlight its role as a bridge connecting international clients to global capital markets. At that time, it reported over $33 billion in assets and more than 500 investment professionals.

With the addition of García-Ayuso, this strategy integrates expertise from two major Wall Street institutions—specifically from Citi Private Bank, where client knowledge, asset allocation, and access to global solutions sit at the core of the business model.

Janus Henderson Completes Acquisition of Rantum Capital

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Ali Dibadj, Chief Executive Officer of Janus Henderson.

Janus Henderson has announced the receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals to complete the acquisition of Rantum Capital, a Frankfurt-headquartered private markets investment firm specializing in private credit and private equity solutions across the DACH region. According to the firm, the acquisition strengthens Janus Henderson’s capabilities in private markets and expands its footprint in Europe, an important institutional market for the company.

“We are delighted to welcome the Rantum team to Janus Henderson. The completion of this acquisition reinforces our capabilities in private markets and enhances our ability to meet growing client demand for private credit and private equity solutions in a market of significant strategic importance,” noted Ali Dibadj, Chief Executive Officer of Janus Henderson.

For his part, Dirk Notheis, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Rantum Capital, stated: “The entire Rantum team is excited to become part of Janus Henderson. We share a strong entrepreneurial culture and client commitment, and by combining our local expertise in private markets with Janus Henderson’s global reach, we believe we are well positioned to create long-term value for investors across Europe.”

The asset manager highlighted that the acquisition of Rantum further expands Janus Henderson’s private markets platform, leveraging capabilities added through recent acquisitions and strategic partnerships, including Privacore, Victory Park Capital, and NBK Capital Partners. “Combined with the firm’s established fixed income franchise, these capabilities strengthen Janus Henderson’s ability to offer clients access to opportunities across both public and private markets,” they stated.

Pilar Gómez Bravo (MFS): “’Buy the Dip’ No Longer Makes as Much Sense as Before in Credit; We Are Seeing the Floor for Spreads”

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

“If you have risk in your portfolio, now is the time to buy hedges.” This advice comes from Pilar Gómez Bravo, Co-CIO of Fixed Income at MFS Investment Management, speaking at the MFS Iberia Summit 2026. Her presentation centered around four key axes: the impact of scarcity on fixed income, geopolitical risk, the Fed’s pivot under Kevin Warsh’s new mandate, and the circularity of AI investments. The expert analyzed how these factors are changing how risk is quantified in fixed income and explained how she and her team are approaching it, maintaining an overweight position in credit. “We are entering a world where we will see more volatility across credit, equities, and rates,” she warned.

Why Scarcity Matters

The analysis first focused on the upward trend in commodities, with an accumulation of crowded trades across various segments—not only in oil and energy costs in Europe, but also in agricultural raw materials. “The only area where we are not seeing large spikes is in metals,” Gómez Bravo clarified. She interprets commodity behavior as “an indicator of supply shocks” and believes these inflationary trends “will continue, at least in the short term, unless we see a drastic reduction in the cost of oil or end the wars, particularly in the Middle East as well as in Russia and Europe.”

Goods scarcity stemming from geopolitical developments and strong demand for AI infrastructure occupied a major portion of the presentation. “Artificial intelligence infrastructure is absorbing all the funding, crowding out other necessary types of investments.” For Gómez Bravo, this scarcity conflicts with the premise that had guided the AI boom: productivity gains leading to a disinflationary impact. “The problem is that we face an acute period where this scarcity of goods—whether chips, conductors, or the required labor—is generating higher cost inflation, and we are not yet seeing the productivity surge. Central banks cannot ignore the fact that, at least for the next few years, we will see this pressure on corporate costs as companies pay up for scarce materials,” she reflected.

This capital scarcity is reflected in the surge of AI-linked fixed income issuances. As an example, Gómez Bravo noted that in the third quarter alone, SoftBank issued $55 million in CCC-rated high-yield bonds to finance a data center, placed at a 9% coupon with $13 million in oversubscription—a sign that investors are demanding higher yields given the volume of debt companies are issuing. “We see that many issues in the credit market are being absorbed, but at the expense of wider spreads. If we previously thought this environment might continue to drive spreads tighter, we now believe these issuances will cause us to hit the floor. Therefore, ‘buy the dip’ no longer makes as much sense as before, because you will be hit with further supply without the technical tailwinds to keep narrowing spreads,” she summarized.

This does not mean carry has lost its appeal. Gómez Bravo considers a defensive carry position still attractive. For her, the “canary in the coal mine” is CCC-rated debt, where spreads have widened, though she views the move not as “alarming,” but as something to monitor closely.

Gómez Bravo also highlighted the rise in off-balance-sheet financing and noted that “circularity is becoming increasingly complex.” This involves not just hyperscalers with strong cash positions, but also secondary AI-related businesses, such as neocloud providers with weaker financial standing, which are entering lease agreements with hyperscalers to backstop their debt and build necessary infrastructure. “I am not saying this is inherently bad, as client financing has always existed, but for those of us in this business for many years, it starts raising red flags,” she added.

What Credit Is Telling Us

The expert and her team are monitoring signals in the fixed income market to identify areas where risk must be reassessed. “Credit will be the leading market risk indicator,” she stated, pointing to the non-alarming yet noticeable uptick in CDS across segments like semiconductors.

Given widespread low volatility, including in currencies, Gómez Bravo affirmed that “now is the time to buy hedges” as a cost-effective way to protect against anticipated risk spikes. “The moment financial conditions begin to tighten, companies may have to go back to shareholders for the capital required to invest in that infrastructure,” she stated regarding AI infrastructure businesses.

The heavy volume of issuances from AI-linked companies is also driving up funding costs for other issuers, including the U.S. government. Pointing to macroeconomic data and capital expenditures in particular, she noted that “outside of AI, we are not seeing significant momentum in other sectors,” concluding: “All allocation risk boils down to AI vs. non-AI.” The impact on the U.S. economy is significant, as AI capex and the wealth effect from equity rallies directly affect purchasing power, particularly for baby boomers.

She noted emerging signs of stress alongside widening CCC spreads, referencing Fitch expectations of a 6% default rate in private credit.

How the U.S. Treasury Is Operating

Gómez Bravo stated that the U.S. Treasury is following a formula previously deployed under Janet Yellen: reducing long-term issuance in favor of short-term Treasury Bills. “What Kevin Warsh is attempting to do is adjust the composition of the Fed’s balance sheet before beginning to shrink it.”

A second tactic involves incentivizing demand for stablecoins as a means to introduce “another buyer of Treasuries.” In her view, the deregulation promised for Trump’s second term responds to the need to “find more buyers for its debt” in a market where foreign buyers are retreating due to elevated national debt loads, polarization, and fragmentation. Gómez Bravo asserted that “the U.S. has run out of savings.” While AI infrastructure financing draws substantial capital, she observes a supply-demand mismatch pushing costs higher. “That is why we do not foresee a major market catalyst driving a sudden collapse in U.S. real rates,” she concluded.

MFS Macro Outlook

Finally, Gómez Bravo summarized MFS’s fixed income outlook and positioning. The firm does not anticipate a near-term recession, as corporate and household fundamentals remain resilient across the U.S., Europe, and emerging markets.

She also expects central banks to re-synchronize on rate hikes following energy and Middle East pressures. However, she believes much of this movement is already priced in: “Opportunities exist to position across curves and countries, but it is difficult to hold high conviction on a long duration position.”

Nor does the firm expect fiscal discipline from governments. “We maintain that government debt financing will depend on which part of the curve they choose to fund, and what policies they deploy, as deficits remain a persistent source of volatility.” In this regard, Gómez Bravo sees “significant fragility” in the U.S., pointing to a K-shaped economy, 7% mortgage rates, and credit card debt reaching 30%. “We see a clear divide between the haves and have-nots,” she summarized, noting that the cost of capital continues to rise, impacting both corporations and consumers. “It is difficult to envision avoiding an economic slowdown unless AI infrastructure investments continue at this pace.”

MFS considers the U.S. yield curve to have flattened significantly and rules out another rate hike in December. The firm currently maintains a neutral stance on the front end of the curve, holding selective long-end exposure through derivatives.

Capital Group Enters the Active UCITS ETF Business

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyGuy Henriques, President of the Europe and Asia-Pacific Client Group at Capital Group, and Jamie Sinclair, Head of ETF Product and Sales for Europe and Asia-Pacific at Capital Group.

Capital Group has received regulatory approval from the Central Bank of Ireland for its first active UCITS ETFs. According to the firm, the four strategies are scheduled to launch across Europe and Asia-Pacific during the first quarter of 2027, “bringing Capital Group’s long-term active investment capabilities to investors through a UCITS ETF structure,” they stated.

Since launching its first active ETFs in North America in 2022, Capital Group has built a $160 billion active ETF business comprising 25 strategies and eight model portfolios in the U.S., along with seven funds in Canada. With this step, the company—currently the third-largest active ETF issuer in the U.S.—is expanding its active ETF platform globally.

“Our goal is to bring Capital Group’s long-term investment outcomes to our clients through the investment vehicle that best suits their needs. Investors are increasingly seeking to combine the flexibility and efficiency of ETFs with the benefits of active management. This approval marks a major milestone in the global expansion of our active ETFs. Our active ETFs are among the fastest-growing in the United States, and bringing this offer to Europe and Asia-Pacific reinforces our position as a go-to investment partner for intermediary and institutional clients worldwide,” noted Guy Henriques, President of the Europe and Asia-Pacific Client Group at Capital Group.

According to the firm, its initial range of Irish-domiciled active ETFs is designed to serve as core holdings in investor portfolios, providing exposure to both equities and fixed income. “These strategies benefit from Capital Group’s fundamental research, long-term investment approach, and multi-manager investment system,” they highlighted.

“Investor demand for active ETFs continues to grow, and our goal is to broaden access to Capital Group’s active management capabilities around the world. As equity markets become increasingly concentrated, investors are placing greater value on fundamental research, active management, and diversification. In an uncertain market environment, our active UCITS ETF solutions are designed to offer investors in Europe and Asia-Pacific differentiated opportunities across equities and fixed income, as well as serve as building blocks for long-term portfolio construction,” added Jamie Sinclair, Head of ETF Product and Sales for Europe and Asia-Pacific at Capital Group.

Nuveen Completes Acquisition of Schroders

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyWilliam Huffman, CEO of Nuveen, and Richard Oldfield, Group Chief Executive of Schroders.

Nuveen has completed the acquisition of Schroders, bringing together two renowned institutions with highly complementary businesses. According to the announcement, the merged entity is the only asset manager ranked among the top ten globally in active management across equities, fixed income, and private markets, managing $2.6 trillion in assets through institutional and wealth management channels. Operating in more than 40 markets, the company maintains a significant presence in the U.S., the U.K., Europe, and Asia-Pacific.

“Our historic merger presents a unique opportunity to redefine our industry and deliver a value proposition to clients that did not exist until now. Together, we will create a platform with leading investment performance across major capital markets, with the flexibility to tailor solutions to clients’ specific objectives. We will deliver investment excellence and global reach, backed by the credibility earned over decades of local presence worldwide,” noted William Huffman, CEO of Nuveen.

According to the firm, the combined entity will continue to grow and innovate through increased investment in capabilities, personnel, and client offerings, with ongoing support from TIAA (Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association), a long-term shareholder that co-invests alongside clients and has backed Nuveen’s strategic priorities across market cycles.

Over the next 12 to 18 months, Schroders will continue to operate independently within Nuveen under the leadership of Richard Oldfield, Group CEO of Schroders, who will report to Mr. Huffman.

Key Executive Perspectives

“Nuveen is fundamental to our ability to deliver lifetime income and financial security to millions of people. The completion of this acquisition gives rise to one of the largest active asset management firms globally, with the scale, talent, and capabilities required to compete and succeed in every relevant market. This union accelerates our strategy and reinforces the investment capabilities powering our retirement and annuity products, solidifying our ability to fulfill our mission of providing lifetime income for generations to come,” added Thasunda Brown Duckett, CEO of TIAA.

For his part, Richard Oldfield, Group CEO of Schroders, commented: “Today’s milestone is an extraordinary moment for our clients and our business. The world is changing rapidly right now, which is why we believe active management is more relevant than ever—helping clients navigate uncertainty and achieve the outcomes they need. By combining our complementary strengths in active investing, we will offer more to our clients and unlock greater growth opportunities, underpinned by a shared investment-led culture, a long-term perspective, and a strong heritage.”

The Future of the Investment Platform

Reflecting the merged entity’s investment-centric culture, the firm explained its intention to establish, over time, a unified investment platform spanning the full spectrum of capabilities across public and private markets. This platform will be led by Saira Malik, who will serve as Chief Investment Officer reporting to Mr. Huffman. Additionally, Johanna Kyrklund will become Chief Investment Officer of Public Markets & Solutions for the combined firm, with responsibility over equities, fixed income, multi-asset, and solutions, ultimately reporting to Ms. Malik.

In line with this, the company intends to organize its combined $400 billion private markets platform by asset class, reflecting its commitment to expanding its product lineup for clients. The combined investment platform, extending from public to private markets, will offer new approaches to retirement income management, greater capital efficiency in insurance portfolios, and enhanced customization in wealth management.

Continuity for Clients

Furthermore, they explained their intention to retain current investment teams across both asset and wealth management for at least 12 to 18 months following the deal’s closing while integration planning takes place. According to the announcement, they will leverage the strong presence and market positioning of Schroders’ wealth management business—including Cazenove Capital—which forms a key strategic pillar of the merged entity’s strategy.

Under Mr. Huffman’s leadership, Matt Oomen will lead global client coverage, assisting clients in accessing the firm’s full suite of services. Client service remains a top priority, and any adjustments made by the combined firm will be executed with the goal of delivering maximum benefit to clients.

Finally, building on Schroders’ heritage, London will serve as the non-U.S. headquarters for the combined entity. It will also be its largest office, with key leadership positions based in the U.K., reinforcing London’s role in global asset and wealth management.

Jane Fraser (Citi) Sets Limits on AI Agents: “We Need the Right Controls”

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Jane Fraser, CEO Citi Group — Photo courtesy

Jane Fraser, Chair and CEO of Citi, put the spotlight on the risks posed by the advancement of artificial intelligence agents in the financial sector during the opening session of Sibos 2026, held this Monday in Miami. Her message was clear: before allowing these systems to move from providing information to autonomously executing actions, it will be necessary to guarantee their identity, authentication, and oversight.

Fraser illustrated the technology’s potential with an everyday example. “I don’t trust my husband to do the grocery shopping, so I can’t wait to have an agent that doesn’t just build a list for me, but actually does it for me,” she joked.

However, the leap between recommending and acting introduces much greater risks. Authentication, she stated, is one of the issues that “keeps us all up at night.” The challenge consists of being able to verify that an agent is truly acting on behalf of a person, and that both the bank and the other participants in a transaction can confirm its legitimacy. “Until then, I am confident I won’t have wild agents without the right controls in place,” she affirmed.

A Control Layer for Citi’s Agents

Fraser explained that Citi has already developed a specific mechanism to control the deployment of AI agents within the institution: a layer known as ARC. “You cannot create an agent without going through ARC,” she noted. This infrastructure concentrates the control framework and observability layer necessary to verify that agents do what they were designed to do, and that their activity can be monitored at all times.

The Citi CEO even anticipated a shift in the supervision model. If traditionally a manager might supervise nine employees, in an environment dominated by AI agents the ratio could invert: a single agent could be subjected to nine different oversight mechanisms, many of them managed in turn by other agents. “It is very early days in those controls, as we can all see,” Fraser acknowledged.

The IMF Focuses on Cyber Risk

The risks associated with artificial intelligence were also present in the remarks by Dan Katz, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), who pointed out that there is a broad debate on whether increasingly powerful AI systems might eventually demand new regulatory responses.

Among the most immediate threats, Katz placed cyber risks “at the top of the list.” AI, he explained, is transforming this domain by accelerating the speed, frequency, and scale with which vulnerabilities can be detected and potentially exploited.

For public policy makers, the challenge will be creating an environment that allows innovation to be harnessed without compromising the integrity and stability of the financial system. Fraser agreed in identifying cybersecurity as one of the great challenges of this new technological era. “We have a tsunami of patches that need to be applied right now, and we have to be very responsible in achieving that,” she stated.

Innovating Without Breaking Trust

Citi’s CEO extended this need for control to the financial system’s broader technological transformation. “If you move fast and break things, we are failing in our mandate,” she asserted. Contrasting with the well-known tech axiom of moving fast even if errors occur, Fraser maintained that financial institutions must innovate rapidly without jeopardizing the trust upon which the system rests. “If we break trust, it is a huge problem for the macro, for the markets, for everywhere,” she warned.

As the velocity of money increases, she added, “resilience and trust go hand in hand.” Citi moves roughly six trillion dollars daily, and Fraser foresees transaction volumes rising significantly as artificial intelligence gains ground in the economy. Clients, furthermore, demand round-the-clock, instantaneous services that are also safe and reliable. Fraser cited Citi Token Services’ digital deposit solutions as an example, which enable money transfers via blockchain technology and integrate with clearing capabilities available 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

The next step, she noted, will be for other components of the financial infrastructure to move toward continuous availability as well, including central banks. Fraser summarized the equilibrium that, in her view, should guide this transformation: “Let’s do it safely, securely, and fast.”