Commodities: The Market Story Implied by the “El Niño” Phenomenon

After Spain, the new name capturing attention in the markets is El Niño. According to experts, this weather phenomenon—currently in a phase of active strengthening and intensification in the equatorial Pacific Ocean—could complicate the path of inflation, supply chains, and expectations in commodity markets, particularly agricultural ones.

For experts at Lombard Odier, climate volatility is becoming a global phenomenon. “Recurrent phenomena such as the El Niño cycle are displaying unusual intensity and timing, amplifying the frequency and severity of extreme weather events across multiple regions, with potential macroeconomic repercussions,” they argue in their latest report.

It is certainly a risk that, behind the geopolitical headlines, is beginning to gain traction. “The El Niño phenomenon currently constitutes the central scenario through early 2027. While its direct impact on developed economies remains limited, its effects on food supply, hydroelectric generation, and more agriculture-dependent economies represent a genuine supply-side risk that could keep headline inflation elevated for longer and complicate the disinflation process on which equity markets currently rely,” maintains Terry Ewing, Head of Equities at MIFL.

To understand the impact this phenomenon has on commodities, the data speaks for itself: in 2023–2024, cocoa surged 250%, sugar reached its highest price in over a decade, and rice exporters closed their borders. The Oceanic Niño Index, which represents the three-month moving average of sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific, points toward what meteorologists describe as a strong or very strong event. “Compounded by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—which have slowed the flow of fertilizers from the Middle East precisely when farmers need to secure inputs—this event comes at a time of unusual fragility for global food production,” notes Aneeka Gupta, Director of Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree.

Commodities and Regions

However, one of the primary considerations experts point out is that not all commodities will be affected equally; rather, it depends on the geographic region in question. As Gupta explains, South and Southeast Asia are the most exposed regions. “Scantier monsoon rains and above-normal temperatures are classic features of El Niño in this region, directly impacting rice, sugar, and coffee crops. Rice production in India and Thailand has dropped sharply during previous severe episodes, and there is a real risk that supply strain could once again trigger export restrictions, further tightening global balances,” she points out.

She adds that the impact in West Africa will center on the cocoa harvest, where production could decline considerably, while in Australia, a sharp drop in wheat acreage is expected, with a potential production decrease of approximately 9 million metric tons in the 2026/27 crop year. “Not all regions face this situation. Argentina is one of the few countries that structurally benefits from El Niño, as above-average rainfall typically favors soybean, corn, and wheat production. Conditions also tend to improve in parts of the southern United States. These are genuine counterweights, but they are unlikely to fully offset what Asia and Africa may lose,” the expert emphasizes.

The Historical Conclusion

Taking a historical perspective, as summarized by Darwei Kung, Co-Head of Commodities at DWS, price spikes in agricultural products tend to be shorter-lived than those seen in metals or energy. “However, when market supply is tight, even small harvest disruptions can cause rapid price movements. Added to this is a long-term structural trend: rising demand for biofuels, driven by governments aiming to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. We expect to continue seeing upward pressure on food prices over the coming months and years,” Kung explains.

According to his analysis, these effects usually emerge with a lag and vary by crop and region, but they can carry significant consequences for monetary policy. “Food prices significantly influence inflation expectations beyond their actual weight within the consumer basket,” he concludes.

Ultimately, Kung contends that El Niño is not merely a weather story, nor is it exclusively a food story: “For investors, it is also a story of volatility. High fertilizer costs, energy market uncertainty, and fragile food supply chains make agricultural markets more vulnerable today.”

AI, Geopolitics, and Nearshoring: The Physical Transformation of Latin America

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The global race for artificial intelligence is often viewed through the lens of software and semiconductors. However, on the ground in Latin America, AI is taking shape as a broader physical and geopolitical transformation. As the world embarks on a projected infrastructure investment in AI of between $5 trillion and $8 trillion by 2030, according to the BlackRock Investment Institute’s 2026 Global Outlook, the region is becoming increasingly integrated into this structural shift.

We are witnessing the convergence of three powerful megaforces: the AI revolution, the reshaping of global supply chains, and the transition to a low-carbon energy system. These forces do not operate in isolation; they are deeply interconnected and mutually reinforcing, creating a new landscape for investors.

The scale of the digital infrastructure underpinning AI is becoming increasingly visible across Latin America. Global cloud providers and private-sector partnerships are expanding their investments in data centers and connectivity, reflecting growing demand for computing capacity. By late 2025, real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield projected a significant increase in data center capacity across the region toward the end of the decade.

This infrastructure expansion is unfolding amid an increasingly complex geopolitical backdrop. As global fragmentation increases, countries are placing greater emphasis on technological resilience. In Latin America, this is contributing to the development of local AI capabilities and a firmer focus on data governance and local infrastructure.

At the same time, efforts to bolster supply chain resilience are restructuring manufacturing and trade flows. Mexico, for instance, has become more closely integrated into North America’s high-value supply chains, extending beyond traditional manufacturing into more advanced sectors, including technology and advanced components. This trend highlights the region’s growing relevance in the evolution of global production networks.

However, one of the primary hurdles to this transformation is energy. The infrastructure supporting AI requires an abundant and reliable power supply. In this context, various areas of Latin America benefit from relatively high levels of renewable energy generation, which can support the development of energy-intensive infrastructure while aligning with decarbonization goals. The region also plays a central role in the global supply of critical minerals, further reinforcing its importance in both the energy and digital transitions.

From an investment perspective, these dynamics underscore the importance of adopting a more granular and selective approach to capturing opportunities. As structural forces reshape economies and markets, outcomes are likely to vary significantly across sectors, countries, and asset classes. This suggests that a more selective approach may be required to pinpoint exactly where value is being created.

Our perspective draws from both global analysis and hands-on investment experience on the ground. While the opportunities tied to AI, infrastructure, and supply chain shifts are significant, they come with macroeconomic, regulatory, and execution challenges. Understanding this balance is essential for investors seeking to navigate the region’s evolving role in the global economy.

For investors, Latin America is not merely a passive beneficiary of these global trends, but an increasingly central part of how they unfold. At the intersection of sovereign AI ambitions, reshaped supply chains, and the energy transition, the region is positioning itself as a vital component for long-term structural growth.

Global Dividends Rise 10.1% in the First Quarter of 2026

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Global dividends reached $424.5 billion in the first quarter of 2026, marking a 10.1% year-on-year increase, according to the first edition of Janus Henderson’s Global Dividend and Share Buyback Index. Dividend growth was widespread, with significant increases in North America, Europe, Japan, and the UK, despite a turbulent macroeconomic context.

The new index expands Janus Henderson’s dividend research to include share buybacks, offering a more comprehensive view of how the world’s largest companies return capital to shareholders. In the first quarter, global buybacks reached $425.7 billion, slightly above dividend payouts, but fell 3.1% compared to the same period last year, suggesting that companies are becoming more selective in their approach to shareholder returns.

Dividends show resilience while buybacks moderate

According to the report, the first quarter highlighted a divergence between dividends and buybacks. Dividend payouts accelerated, supported by resilient corporate earnings, while buybacks moderated against a backdrop of higher-for-longer interest rates, trade uncertainty, and geopolitical risk.

North America continued to dominate global shareholder returns. The United States contributed $183.5 billion in dividends, representing 46.3% of the index total, and repurchased $266.7 billion in shares, making it by far the largest market globally for both dividends and buybacks. US dividend growth was broad-based across sectors, with technology, financials, and energy among the main contributors.

Europe, excluding the UK, paid $67.4 billion in dividends in the first quarter, representing a 35.5% year-on-year increase, driven by currency effects and payment timing. Switzerland was the continent’s largest payer with a payout of $27.3 billion, followed by Denmark with $9.4 billion.

UK dividends boosted by special payouts

UK companies paid $17.7 billion in dividends during the first quarter, outpaying every other European country except Switzerland. According to the report, overall growth reached 17.7%, driven by special dividends, including a £3.60 per share special dividend from Next following strong overseas sales, and a special dividend from Reckitt following the divestment of its Essential Home business.

Apart from special dividends, UK payouts were supported by a wide range of companies, including AstraZeneca and Shell. The UK also executed $5.8 billion in buybacks in the first quarter, more than any other European country with the exception of Germany.

Financial sector leads distributions, while AI investment drives basic materials

The financial sector remained the largest contributor to global dividends in the first quarter, with a distribution of $90.8 billion. The sector also led global buybacks, with $110.7 billion in repurchases, accounting for more than a third of the index total.

The basic materials sector posted the highest dividend growth among all industries analyzed, with payouts surging 47.1% over the period. This was driven by strong demand for essential minerals, such as copper and lithium, which are critical inputs for data centers, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence infrastructure, Janus Henderson highlighted.

“Technology also remained central to shareholder returns. The sector distributed $43.7 billion in dividends and executed $66.6 billion in buybacks in the first quarter, underscoring the ongoing importance of mega-cap tech companies to global capital returns,” the firm emphasized.

Dividend outlook improves, but buyback decline expected

Janus Henderson forecasts global dividend growth of 8.3% in 2026, up from 6.8% in 2025. In contrast, global buybacks are expected to decline by 1.1% this year, after growing 6.1% in 2025.

The outlook for dividends remains backed by resilient earnings, though Janus Henderson notes that higher-for-longer interest rates, geopolitical risk, and pressure on consumer-facing sectors remain key risks. Buybacks are expected to stay more cyclical, offering flexibility to companies if conditions deteriorate.

Jane Shoemake, client portfolio manager on the global equity team at Janus Henderson, stated: “Amid what appears to be an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, the surprise has been the resilience of earnings worldwide. Those earnings almost always translate into higher dividends, and that is exactly what we are seeing now across a wide range of sectors and regions.”

“Share buybacks add another dimension to the picture. The absolute level of buybacks remains substantial, generally matching first-quarter dividends, but the modest year-on-year decline also highlights why they should be treated differently. Dividends are generally long-term board decisions based on sustainability, while share buybacks are more discretionary and cyclical in nature. In that sense, dividends remain the clearest signal of confidence, while buybacks act as a more flexible buffer,” Shoemake concluded.

Is the Fed Heading Toward a New Monetary Tightening Cycle?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Here is the full translation of the text into English, formatted in Title Case as requested:

Federal Reserve Set to Meet as Rate Cut Expectations Fade and Inflation Debate Continues

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Will Meet Again Next July 29, Against a Market Backdrop Where, According to Experts from International Investment Firms, the Reasons for an Interest Rate Cut Seem to be Vanishing. Specifically, They Highlight That June’s CPI and PPI Reports Surprised to the Downside, Which Reduced the Risk of an Imminent Rate Hike by the Fed and Caused Yields on Two-Year Treasury Bonds to Fall.

“June Inflation Data Represented a Double Favorable Blow to the Market. Headline CPI Fell 0.4% Month-on-Month, Reducing the Annual Rate from 4.2% to 3.5%, While the Core CPI Remained Unchanged for the Month and Moderated to 2.6% Year-on-Year. Today’s PPI Report Reinforced This Message by Falling 0.3% Against Expectations of a Flat Reading, with Core Measures Also Weaker Than Expected. Energy Was a Key Factor in Both Releases, but the Moderation in Core Consumer Prices and Core Producer Price Indicators Suggests the Improvement Was Not Exclusively Due to Oil,” Explains Afonso Borges, Fixed Income Analyst at Julius Baer.

Furthermore, Experts Point Out That New York Fed President John Williams’ View That Monetary Policy Is Well Positioned and That Inflation Has Likely Peaked Reinforces the Case for Keeping Rates Unchanged. However, Markets Still Anticipate Potential Monetary Tightening Later This Year, with a Possible Resolution in the Strait of Hormuz Offering an Additional Disinflationary Catalyst. All of This Leaves the Scenario Open to Debate.

Latest Inflation Data

In the View of Martin Hochstein, Senior Economist at Allianz Global Investors, Persistent Inflation, Shifting Fed Forecasts, and the Approach Likely to be Taken by Kevin Warsh Point Toward a New Cycle of Monetary Tightening. “Our Baseline Scenario Regarding the Resilience of the Global Economy Remains Unchanged. Nevertheless, Inflation Continues to Sit Above Target Levels in Most Major Economies. Additionally, a Spike in Market Volatility Could Test Our Central Scenario of an Economy That Bends but Does Not Break,” He Explains.

In This Context, the Asset Manager Has Revised Its Forecasts for U.S. Interest Rates, Considering That the Risk Profile Has Shifted: Whereas It Previously Pointed Toward Further Rate Cuts, It Now Supports the Possibility of a New Cycle of Monetary Tightening. They Now Expect the Federal Reserve to Raise Its Policy Rate by a Total of 50 Basis Points During the Second Half of the Year.

“Until Now, We Expected Kevin Warsh, the New Fed Chair, to Take a More Gradual Approach Before Initiating Rate Hikes. Initially, Our Base Case Contemplates Rate Increases in September and December. However, We Do Not Rule Out the Fed Front-Loading Part of the Tightening Cycle, Though We See Hikes at the July and September Meetings as Unlikely. The Three Factors Explaining This Shift in Our Assessment Are Persistent Inflation Showing No Signs of Abating; Inflation Outlooks from the Fed That Contrast with Its Monetary Policy Stance; and Markets Misinterpreting the Leadership Change at the Fed,” Argues Hochstein.

Inflationary Factors

Geopolitics Remains One Element Watched Closely by International Asset Management Experts. “Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Risks Continue to Weigh on Market Sentiment on the Doorstep of Earnings Season. Tensions in the Middle East Remain Unresolved. However, Markets Appear Less Sensitive to Events Surrounding the Strait of Hormuz Than They Were at the Start of the Year,” Acknowledges Louise Dudley, Global Equity Portfolio Manager at Federated Hermes.

According to Sebastian Paris Horvitz, Head of Research at LBP AM (Majority Shareholder of LFDE), “The Situation in the Strait of Hormuz Has Worsened,” Warning That “The Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Threatens the Rebound in Economic Activity.” He Also Notes That Reduced Tanker Traffic Has Driven Oil and Gas Prices Up Again, Warning That “A Prolonged Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Would Translate into Much Higher Energy Costs.”

Against This Backdrop, He Notes That “An Adverse Scenario Must Be Considered Once Again,” Explaining That Heightened Risks Will Drag Down Confidence and Economic Growth. “Events in the Middle East Undermine the Idea of a Quick Exit from the Crisis and Make Recent Macroeconomic Data Harder to Interpret. In Fact, Business Surveys Were Beginning to Show Signs of Economic Recovery Right when Hostilities Resumed. In the U.S., June Inflation Figures Were Quite Reassuring, but the Deceleration Trend Could Be Threatened Unless Energy Markets Ease. Headline Year-on-Year Inflation Fell to 3.5%, Down from 4.2% in May,” Horvitz Acknowledges.

The Fed’s Pulse

For Tiffany Wilding, Economist at PIMCO, Recent Statements by Fed Officials Suggest That “Policymakers Are Increasingly Preparing Markets for the Possibility of Renewed Monetary Tightening If Inflation Does Not Moderated as Expected.”

“In a Broader Sense, Fed Communications Have Shifted Recently to Emphasize the Importance of Keeping Inflation Expectations Firmly Anchored in the Face of Supply Shocks. In His Testimony Before Congress, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Reiterated the Central Bank’s Firm Commitment to Restoring Price Stability and Maintained That, Despite a Softer June Inflation Report, the Fed’s Inflation Target Has Not Yet Been Reached,” the Expert Recalls.

Nonetheless, the PIMCO Economist Maintains That “We Still Expect Inflation to Moderate During the Second Half of the Year and for the Fed to Keep Rates Unchanged.” In This Regard, She Reminds That “This Is Not 2022,” as “Labor Markets Are No Longer Generating the Same Degree of Inflationary Pressures, Fiscal Policy Is Far Less Expansionary, and—Crucially for Fixed-Income Investors—Real Yields Are Already Substantially Higher.”

From Julius Baer, Borges Maintains That the Fed’s Decision-Making Structure Will Continue to Limit Kevin Warsh’s Ability to Substantially Alter Monetary Policy. “The Committee Reaffirmed Its Commitment to an Ample-Reserves Framework, While Guidelines from Waller and Williams This Week Demonstrate That the Fed’s Priorities Remain Intact. Given Limited Support Within the Committee for a Drastic Reduction in Transparency or a Structurally Smaller Balance Sheet, We Expect a Warsh-Led Fed to Represent an Evolution from Powell’s Era, Rather Than a Revolution,” He Adds.

Vontobel Appoints Gian Reto Naegeli As Head Of Its Miami Branch

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyGian Reto Naegeli, Head of the Miami branch of Vontobel Swiss Financial Advisers.

Here is the direct English translation of the entire passage:

Vontobel Swiss Financial Advisers (SFA) has appointed Gian Reto Naegeli as head of its Miami office. In this position, he will strengthen the firm’s presence in the region and foster the continued growth of its business in the United States.

Gian Reto brings more than three decades of experience in the financial sector. Prior to joining Vontobel, he held various positions at UBS, where he gained deep experience in international wealth management. He joined SFA in 2017 and became part of Vontobel in August 2022. Since 2024, he has successfully led the SFA Southeast and Central region.

Building on this strong track record, Gian Reto will assume the additional responsibility of leading the Miami office while continuing in his role as head of the Southeast and Central region. His appointment reflects Vontobel’s ambition to further expand its local presence in the United States and leverage his leadership experience directly in one of its key markets.

“We are delighted to appoint Gian Reto to this role,” said Billy Obregon, CEO of Vontobel SFA and Head of the Americas. “He has successfully driven the growth and development of our business in the U.S. Southeast and Central regions, and now we are expanding his mandate to include the local Miami market. Thanks to his deep knowledge of the region, his leadership experience, and his strong client focus, he is ideally positioned to drive the next phase of growth and further strengthen our U.S. business,” Obregon concluded.

BlackRock’s Aladdin Revenues Increase by 13% Driven by Public and Private Market Tech Solutions

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Revenues from technology services and subscriptions registered another solid quarter, with a 13% growth in revenue and a 15% year-over-year increase in annual contract value (ACV), helping to boost the firm’s total revenues to 7.1 billion dollars during the quarter.

As Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, noted during the earnings presentation: “We are the technology provider helping investors, from individuals to institutions, seamlessly combine public and private markets within their portfolios. BlackRock is simultaneously a leading public markets manager, a platform specialized in private markets, and a global technology company. It is a model designed to deliver sustained growth.”

Highlighting this momentum, Martin Small, Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of BlackRock and Global Head of Corporate Strategy, stated: “Some of the fluctuations in private markets and changes in the regulatory environment have been real accelerators for Preqin, eFront, and Aladdin as a whole. Technology is the primary driver of investment returns. It is the primary driver of operational efficiency. It is the driver of an excellent client experience, and clients are investing more in technology.”

The results reflect Aladdin’s position as a global technology company, in a context where transparency, data, and analytics become increasingly important for investors building portfolios that combine public and private markets.

Demand for technology continues to be driven by two main trends. The first is that clients are consolidating their technology providers and choosing fewer integrated platforms, while, on the other hand, demand for transparency and analytical tools in private markets is growing.

Key Technology Highlights from Q2 2026 Results

Technology ACV increased by 15% year-over-year, while technology services and subscription revenues grew by 13% year-over-year; additionally, technology and private markets are expected to account for more than 30% of the firm’s revenues by 2030.

On the other hand, artificial intelligence (AI) is being integrated throughout Aladdin, and BlackRock is developing new analysis tools and AI-driven workflows to offer clients a single, comprehensive view of public and private markets.

Finally, the rising demand for transparency in private markets is accelerating the adoption of Preqin and eFront.

Blue Owl Strengthens Ties with the Latin American World with a New Office in Miami

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyOpening of the New Blue Owl Office in Miami

After around a year of planning, settled in a temporary location while finalizing construction details, the specialized asset manager Blue Owl has now been able to move into its new office in Miami. With this move, the alternative investment firm consolidates its presence in one of the main hubs of the Latin American investor universe.

According to what the firm shared with Funds Society, Blue Owl’s new location in Miami is 701 Brickell Avenue. It is a space designed for an expanding team, with capacity for about 50 people. This growth-oriented design, they explain, draws on the asset manager’s experience with its London and Tokyo offices.

In addition to professionals dedicated to the areas of private debt, real estate, digital infrastructure, and GP Stakes, the new office will house the six professionals who make up the team in charge of Latin America, including the US Offshore business.

This team is led by Felipe Manzo, who has been in charge of expanding the regional market. The professional was recruited from Santander Private Banking International in 2023 and has since gained prominence, being named Managing Director and Head of Private Wealth for LatAm.

“This office represents an exciting new chapter for the Blue Owl team and for the clients we serve throughout Latin America. Establishing a permanent presence in Miami allows us to be even closer to our clients, better understand their evolving needs, and connect them with all of Blue Owl’s broad global capabilities,” said Manzo.

Centralizing Operations and Client Relations

The plan, as detailed by the specialized firm, is to use this new office to centralize events and receptions in the Florida business hub, supporting the headquarters located in New York. The focus, they noted, is to serve Latin American clients from this new office.

The occasion was recently celebrated with a reception, which featured the participation of 30 of the firm’s largest clients; Francis Suárez, former mayor of Miami; Madeleine Sinclair, Head of Private Wealth for the Americas at Blue Owl; and Sean Connor, CEO of Global Private Wealth.

The senior executive described the event as a milestone for the manager’s operation in the Americas. “As demand for private market solutions continues to grow, Miami’s position as a leading financial hub and a gateway to Latin America makes it the ideal location to deepen client relationships, strengthen partnerships, and continue building our presence in the region,” said Connor.

Spain, How Much Is It Worth to Raise the World Cup?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Here is the complete translation in capital title format for all headings:

Finally, There Is a Champion in the 2026 World Cup; Spain Secures the Title for the Second Time in Its History

However, beyond the sporting prestige for the members of the winning national team, there are other benefits of an economic nature that involve the economy of the victorious nation.

The championship country receives a record prize from FIFA, but many more economic benefits begin to register after the final whistle due to factors such as: an increase in the value of its footballers, the strengthening of the country brand, tourism growth, and, in many cases, a better capacity to attract investments and project an image of stability and success.

In fact, the World Cup has become a platform for generating economic value whose profitability can extend for several years.

A Record Prize for the Champion

FIFA raised the economic purse of the 2026 World Cup to historic levels as a consequence of expanding the tournament from 32 to 48 teams.

While in Qatar 2022 the organization distributed $440 million, with a prize of $42 million for the champion, in the 2026 edition the fund allocated exclusively to sporting prizes increased to $655 million, a 50% increase.

The champion will receive $50 million, while the runner-up will get $33 million. If support for preparation and other distributions approved by FIFA are included, the total amount allocated to participating federations rises to $871 million, the highest figure in the tournament’s history.

The Real Reward Begins Afterward

The economic benefits of lifting the World Cup usually go far beyond the prize delivered by FIFA.

Various sports economy studies show that the championship country typically experiences benefits in the following years such as: greater arrival of international tourists; strengthening of the international image or “country brand”; an increase in foreign investor interest; greater exposure for domestic products and exports; and growth in the consumption of official merchandise and products associated with the national team.

The World Cup functions as a gigantic global positioning campaign. For a month, billions of people continuously observe the culture, image, symbols, and companies of the winning country.

Although it is difficult to isolate the exclusive effect of the championship from other economic factors, various academic analyses and specialized bodies agree that the international visibility generated by a World Cup strengthens the winning country’s “soft power” and improves its international reputation.

Spain and Argentina: Two Squads with Elite Value

The final of this World Cup also brought together two of the most valuable squads in global football. According to international transfer market estimates, the Spanish national team has an approximate value close to $1.7157 billion (€1.5 billion); the Argentine national team, for its part, slightly exceeds $1 billion (€900 million).

Together, both teams represent football assets worth more than $2.7 billion (€2.4 billion), a figure higher than the stock market value of numerous Latin American companies. Much of this value is concentrated in young players whose market price could increase considerably if they belong to the world champion team, but even if they do not.

Below, we address one of the greatest benefits of simply having reached the World Cup final, which increases even further for the winners.

The World Cup Drives Up Footballers’ Prices

Historically, a World Cup significantly alters the transfer market. A player who stands out in the tournament can see their value increase between 20% and 50% in just a few weeks, especially when they are under 25 years old.

The world champion also acquires a highly sought-after intangible asset: sporting prestige. That status usually translates into better club contracts, new sponsors, higher advertising revenue, salary renegotiations, and an increase in the commercial value of their image.

It is no coincidence that several of the most expensive transfers in history occurred immediately after a World Cup. Many of the players on the finalist teams—if not all—belong to global football’s top elite. Let’s look at an example, perhaps the most relevant one right now.

Currently, Spanish international Lamine Yamal is the footballer with the highest market value in the world. According to the latest Transfermarkt update, his current value stands at around $235 million (€200 million).

However, that is his estimated market value, not necessarily the price FC Barcelona would sell him for. How much could he really be worth?

Various football industry analysts consider that if Barcelona agreed to negotiate today (something very unlikely), the price could range between $295 million and up to $355 million. The reasons for this stratospheric amount are several, all with great weight: he is barely 19 years old; he has a long-term contract with Barcelona (until 2031); he is the primary figure in the club’s sporting project; his performance already places him among the best footballers on the planet; and his enormous commercial potential (sponsorships, jersey sales, image rights, and global audience) further increases his value.

If Yamal maintains his level and continues accumulating titles with Barcelona and the Spanish national team, several specialists consider it feasible that he could reach a valuation close to between $410 million and $470 million. Furthermore, his contract includes a buyout clause of over $1.1 billion (€1 billion)—a figure designed precisely to discourage any transfer attempt, but one that highlights the true scale of a player’s worth and the benefits of World Cup exposure.

Jerseys Are Also a Big Business

The World Cup victory also generates a commercial boom in other variables that may not seem as visible for a long time. Official jerseys of the champion tend to sell out of inventory during the first few weeks following the tournament.

Added to this is the increase in sales of sportswear, collectible items, official match balls, video games, commercial licenses, and audiovisual content. For sports brands, winning a World Cup represents one of the largest commercial showcases on the planet.

An Investment with a Global Return

The World Cup confirms that modern football has ceased to be solely a sporting competition and has become a powerful global industry.

The champion receives millions of dollars in prize money, but the greatest return comes from assets that remain long after lifting the trophy: more valuable footballers, strengthened commercial brands, a better international perception, and a country that, at least for some time, holds the world’s attention.

In an economy where reputation also generates wealth, winning a World Cup is equivalent to obtaining one of the most powerful certificates of value in existence.

Alternative Investments Evolve in Latin American Pension Funds

| By Beltrán | 0 Comentarios

The International Association of Pension Fund Supervisors (AIOS) recently published the study: Investment Portfolio Composition in AIOS Country Pension Systems (June 2026). Beyond comparing the pension systems of eight countries, the document shows how alternative investments have transitioned from being a marginal allocation to becoming a strategic component of the region’s institutional portfolios.

The growth of assets under management illustrates this evolution. Between 2020 and June 2025, pension funds in AIOS member countries increased their assets from approximately US$631 billion to US$840 billion, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 6.6%.

However, market size is only part of the story. The study identifies distinct allocation patterns, among which three particularly illustrative cases stand out.

Chile, Colombia, and Peru have opted for a high internationalization of their portfolios. In these markets, nearly half of the assets are invested in foreign issuers, seeking greater geographic and currency diversification.

Mexico, on the contrary, presents a different model. Although it maintains a higher proportion of investments in domestic issuers, it has developed one of the most sophisticated regulatory frameworks to channel resources into alternative assets through structured vehicles such as CKDs and CERPIs.

The difference is relevant. Analyzing solely the issuer’s domicile can lead to underestimating the international exposure of Mexican Afores.

Mexico Retains the Largest Regulatory Leeway

One of the study’s most interesting findings is that Mexico retains the largest regulatory leeway to expand its exposure to alternative assets.

The youngest SIEFOREs can allocate up to 30% of their assets to structured instruments, a higher limit than that observed in most of the analyzed countries. In comparison, Chile will gradually raise the limit for alternative asset investments in Fund A, from 17% currently to 19% in August 2026, and a maximum of 20% in August 2027.

Although current allocations remain below those limits, the Mexican regulatory framework still offers ample room for alternative asset exposure to continue increasing in the coming years.

Alternative Assets Are Already Strategic

The study also shows that the growth of alternative assets is not a passing fad.

During the 2020-2025 period, practically all countries expanded their exposure to this asset class. Mexico recorded a compound annual growth rate of nearly 17%, while Chile reached approximately 61%, and Costa Rica recorded the highest growth rate (123%), albeit starting from a very small base.

In absolute terms, Mexico maintains the largest regional exposure, with approximately US$22 billion invested in private equity, US$16.5 billion in real estate, and nearly US$4.7 billion in infrastructure.

Implications for International Managers

For global private equity, infrastructure, and private credit managers, the message is clear.

The opportunity in Latin America does not rely solely on the growth of assets under management, but on the sophistication process that institutional investors are undergoing. Allocations to private markets continue to expand, regulatory frameworks continue to evolve, and portfolios are seeking greater diversification to face increasingly long investment horizons. In this context, Mexico continues to hold a prominent position within the region.

It combines the largest institutional market in Latin America with a regulatory framework that allows for significant participation of alternative assets. The challenge for international managers will no longer be demonstrating why private markets should be part of portfolios, but rather differentiating themselves in an environment where competition for institutional capital will only intensify.

Column by Arturo Hanono

The Engines Behind the 15.3 Trillion Dollars of AUM Reached by BlackRock

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

“Market fundamentals are strong and well-supported, with higher margins and earnings momentum catalyzed by new technology. The scale and depth of our client relationships globally have never been greater. Clients are turning to BlackRock for insights and opportunities,” with these words, Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of the firm, contextualized the firm’s second quarter results.

Results that have exceeded expectations and translated into a rise in its shares at the start of the trading session. Specifically, the manager reached 15.3 trillion dollars in assets under management (AUM) after registering 868 billion dollars of net inflows during the last twelve months, reflecting organic growth in base fees of 10%. “Flows in the first six months of 2026 more than doubled year-over-year, bringing assets under management (AUM) to a record 15.3 trillion dollars,” Fink recognizes.

During the first half of the year, the firm registered record net inflows of 321 billion dollars, including 192 billion dollars in the second quarter, broadly based across the platform and driven by ETFs, private markets, active fixed income, and systematic equity strategies.

The most striking data point is that it registered a 31% increase in revenue compared to the previous year, “reflecting the positive impact of markets, organic growth in base fees, fees related to the HPS transaction, higher performance fees, and higher technology services and subscription revenue,” as they explain.

The Engines of BlackRock

As Fink pointed out, the firm has simultaneously become “a leading public markets manager, a scaled private markets platform, and a global technology company.” And he defends that the quality and breadth of their platform differentiates them with clients more than ever. “It is enabling us to capture a larger share of their portfolios and drive durable earnings for our shareholders. In the second quarter, clients entrusted us with 192 billion dollars in net capital inflows, generating organic base fee growth of 8%, well ahead of our target,” he recognizes.

Additionally, iShares surpassed 6 trillion dollars in AUM, approximately doubling its size in three years. However, the data point that Fink highlights is that demand is building across its active management franchise with 53 billion dollars of net inflows, “where systematic strategies drove net inflows in equity and a record 7 billion in liquid alternatives.”

The third key point driving the manager is the technology segment. In fact, revenue from technology services and subscriptions increased by 67 million dollars compared to the second quarter of 2025 and 36 million compared to the first quarter of 2026, reflecting sustained demand for Aladdin and multi-product solutions. The annual contract value (ACV) of technology services and subscriptions increased by 15% compared to the second quarter of 2025. “This increase reflects the continued adoption of Aladdin as transparency, data, and analytics become increasingly critical for our clients and the industry,” notes Fink.

Financial Reflection

These engines have a clear reflection in the manager’s financial results, and its adjusted operating margin for the second quarter was 45.9%, the highest in nearly five years. Quarterly operating income grew approximately 40% year-over-year, and their conviction in BlackRock’s future growth led them to increase their planned level of share repurchases for 2026 to 2 billion dollars.

“Helping more people benefit from the long-term growth of the capital markets is at the core of our strategy and our largest source of opportunity. It is how we deliver higher and more durable organic growth. We see it in our results this quarter: 8% organic base fee growth, an adjusted operating margin near 46%, double-digit earnings per share growth, and increased return of capital. The more we help our clients participate in the markets, the more our own growth solidifies: higher organic growth, higher earnings growth, and more value for our shareholders. Our momentum is accelerating, and I have never been more optimistic about the growth ahead,” concludes Fink on his assessment of these latest quarterly results.