Americans may seem to be placing a renewed focus on health and fitness, but the reality is we still have a long way to go. A new survey from Nautilus found that working out at a gym can be intimidating and deters some people from working out. Americans are most intimidated by people that are in better shape at the gym, with 32 percent of survey respondents citing it as the key factor.
The Nautilus survey, powered by uSamp’s Instant.ly platform, questioned 1,000 men and women in the United States ages 18 and older on April 17, 2013 to better understand their workout behaviors and health priorities.
The survey found that most Americans are dissatisfied with how they feel and how they look. More than half of adults consider themselves overweight, with 11 percent identifying themselves as obese and 51 percent noting they need to lose a few pounds. Body image is also a point of discontent, as 64 percent of adults say they are unhappy with their body overall.
Of those surveyed, many found solace with at home workouts:
41 percent said they workout at home because they don’t feel embarrassed
26 percent like that they can wear what they want
13 percent enjoy that they control the channel on the TV
The survey also found that the No. 1 reason Americans don’t workout as much as they’d like to is because they don’t have enough time. But Americans are acutely aware of the health benefits to a good workout. The No. 1 motivator for working out is health (56 percent) followed by appearance (27 percent).
“Everyone has a different fitness level and workout preference, and this survey demonstrates that consumers want to have more choices,” said Bruce Cazenave, CEO of Nautilus. “Whether you’re trying to get off the couch or looking to tone up, getting fit doesn’t have to be overwhelming. At Nautilus, we want to inspire others to pursue a healthy lifestyle by providing effective tools to engage them in a fitness plan they can stick with, and ultimately, enabling them to achieve their overall health and fitness goals.”
Foto cedidaBill McQuaker, Head of Henderson Multi-Asset. Loved to Loathed
Investors’ love affair with gold has cooled. As always, deteriorating performance has precipitated the change of mood. Gold has fallen around 24% since October last year. This disappointing outcome has felt all the worse because almost everything else has risen since European Central Bank president Mario Draghi assured us that the euro would last forever.
After roughly 10 years of rising prices, perhaps investors had grown complacent. The fact that many were recent converts to gold’s appeal meant there were plenty of weak holders liable to be shaken out by poor price action. An unfortunate set of circumstances – several near simultaneous bearish reports from investment banks, coupled with rumours of clumsy selling in derivative markets – did just that, and set the rout in train. So much for the sanctity of the safe haven asset.
Looking ahead, the short-run behaviour of gold is likely to be determined by the state of investor sentiment and positioning. Following the recent sell-down, both of these favour a stabilisation of the gold price: a high level of bearishness among investors is currently allied with significant short positions by speculators. That said, technical analysts point to $1500/ounce as the level gold must reach before downside risk has diminished in their eyes. Technical analysis has its limitations, but it may be a little more influential than normal in a market such as gold, where the asset is famously difficult to value.
Figure 1: Speculators short; investors bearish
No of contracts US$
Source: Henderson, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters Datastream; London gold bullion in US dollars; Commodity Futures Trading Commission, non-commercial short contracts; Weekly data 31 December 2006 to 18 June 2013.
Many investors, ourselves included, have viewed gold as an asset that has interesting hedging properties in an uncertain world. The unprecedented wave of central bank ‘money printing’ that has occurred in the wake of the global financial crisis may produce some surprising outcomes in the longer term, even if the bankers would have us believe otherwise.
In a world where a sizeable group of investors still fears eventual deflation, and believes that this will lead to a further bout of aggressive money printing, gold seems like an appealing store of value. Likewise, another camp of investors favours the metal for quite different reasons. They fear inflation is the inevitable consequence of current central bank policies and view hard assets (those with intrinsic value), including gold, as one of the few refuges available for the tough times that, they believe, lie just around the corner.
The last 12 months has suited neither group. The consensus appears to believe that the central banks’ actions will produce the best of all possible outcomes – accelerating non-inflationary growth that will facilitate an ‘elegant’ exit from unconventional monetary policies, and eventually, higher interest rates. In this scenario, the one thing you don’t want to be holding is an asset with no exposure to growth, paying no yield.
In recent times we have been willing to give this view a chance. Our positioning has favoured risk assets such as equities and we have de-emphasised portfolio hedges, including gold. But the going is becoming tougher for that stance. Increasing evidence of a sustained private sector recovery in the US, (especially if it happens when the effects of the ‘sequester’ begin to fade) will surely precipitate a change in the interest rate environment. That could be the worst outcome for fixed income, which hasn’t yet suffered a meaningful setback. If the prices of goods and services remain stable as growth picks up, gold will remain unloved, but any signs that accelerating growth is igniting inflation will renew interest in hard assets and gold.
On the other hand, if global growth forecasts continue to decline steadily as they have done for two years now, and inflation falls even further than it already has, then the deflationists will re-emerge, emboldened by the data. The reaction function of the world’s central banks to such developments is well-established – more money printing. Gold would be back on the bid in such circumstances.
For now we continue to enjoy the ‘Goldilocks’ backdrop (ie, growth is neither too hot nor too cold). If policymakers turn out to be truly brilliant, or if the organic, biological nature of capitalism proves up to the task of generating a renewed cycle of sustained non-inflationary growth, then there will be little need for gold in investors’ portfolios. Right now the market appears to be looking on the bright side. For our own part, we are not so sure and so gold remains a part of our strategy. Like most people, we look forward to the day when we no longer feel we need gold. It just hasn’t arrived yet.
Wikimedia CommonsFoto: Ebyabe. AlphaMetrix regresa a Miami para celebrar el Private Equity Summit 2013
After hosting a sold out 1,600 person Hedge Fund Summit in January, AlphaMetrix Group, announces the inaugural AlphaMetrix Private Equity 2013 Summit from November 13-15 at the Fontainebleau Hotel in Miami Beach, FL. AlphaMetrix Summits are invitation-only one-on-one networking conferences that bring together top-tier industry professionals from around the world. Private Equity firms, limited partners, deal intermediaries and other market participants are able to preschedule meetings that are conducted in 30 minute time slots for two and a half days. In addition to these focused meetings, attendees are given exclusive access to Summit panels and roundtables to gain insight from leading industry professionals. This networking-based Summit will also feature private cocktail parties and a keynote speaker during Thursday’s gala dinner.
AlphaMetrix’s Chief Executive Officer Aleks Kins states,“There is a growing appetite for the AlphaMetrix conference model and we feel that the private equity industry will benefit from this proven and rapidly growing Summit structure.”
AlphaMetrix currently hosts two annual Hedge Fund Summits in Miami and Monaco that follow the one-on-one meeting format. At the AlphaMetrix Miami 2013 Hedge Fund Summit, over 1,600 industry participants registered (a 35% increase from 2012) and over 8,000 meetings were confirmed. Registration for the Private Equity 2013 Summit will open this week.
Wikimedia CommonsFoto: Ardfern. Morgan Stanley adquiere el 35% de Citi en su joint venture Smith Barney
Morgan Stanley announced this friday that it has received all regulatory approvals to acquire the remaining 35 percent interest in Morgan Stanley Smith Barney Holdings from Citigroup, fulfilling a key strategic priority. Upon the close of the purchase, Morgan Stanley will own 100 percent of the business, which operates under the name Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Morgan Stanley will notify Citigroup that it intends to exercise its right to purchase the remaining interest at a previously established price of $4.7 billion, payable in cash. The closing is expected to take place on or about June 28, 2013. Morgan Stanley will record a negative adjustment to capital (i.e., shareholders’ equity) of approximately $200 million (net of tax) to reflect the difference between the purchase price for the 35 percent redeemable non-controlling interest in MSSBH ($4.725 billion) and its carrying value. This adjustment will negatively impact the calculation of basic and fully diluted earnings per share for the three- and six-month periods ended June 30, 2013.
Additionally, MSSBH will redeem all of the Class A Preferred Interests in MSSBH owned by Citigroup and its affiliates for a purchase price equal to their liquidation preference plus accrued and unpaid distributions, or approximately $2.028 billion in aggregate, simultaneously with Morgan Stanley’s purchase of the remaining interest.
James P. Gorman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Stanley, said: “This is a historic day for Morgan Stanley. It is the culmination of a multi-year effort to transform our business model into one that offers stronger shareholder returns and greater stability in volatile markets. Immediately upon closing, we expect to start seeing the benefits of 100 percent ownership – including an expanded deposit base, unique syndication and distribution capabilities and enhanced opportunities for both our wealth management and institutional clients.
Foto cedidaFoto: Trevor Greetham, Asset Allocation Director at Fidelity. Slowing Bernanke's QE program, favorable to the dollar
The FOMC statement last night was broadly unchanged but Bernanke set out a clear timetable for how QE would be wound down starting later this year and ending next summer if the labour market continues to improve as they expect. He used the familiar central bank driving analogy of easing off on the gas as opposed to hitting the brakes and stressed there would be a considerable length of time between the end of QE and the first rate hike. My feeling is still that the Fed will end up tightening later than this all suggests. Lead indicators are weak and the markets will want to force the Fed to take the drop in inflation more seriously, probably via a further large drop in commodity prices.
The most noteworthy thing about the initial market reaction is the strength of the US dollar despite a further drop in risk assets. This suggests the counter-intuitive dollar weakness we have seen since Fed tapering was first raised has run its course and was mostly likely a temporary phenomenon related to the selling of dollar-linked assets in the emerging markets.
In terms of investment strategy, we will stay overweight the US dollar but we are likely to further deepen our underweight positions in bonds and dollar-sensitive commodities including gold, off hard today.
We are likely to maintain a small overweight position in stocks in aggregate. Investor sentiment was already depressed before the Fed meeting and in the long run stocks are much less exposed to the risk of tightening than bonds are. We will stay overweight US equities, where we see good fundamentals, while moving further underweight emerging market equities.
Japan could come out of the current sell off looking good. Sentiment towards Japan is at a very low ebb but dollar strength should trigger the next wave of yen weakness, we expect Japanese exports to the US to remain strong and there are increasing signs of a pick up in activity at home.
Trevor Greetham is Portfolio Manager and Asset Allocation Director at Fidelity.
Wikimedia CommonsBy David Tuggy. 3.77% Decrease in Investment in Government Debt by Afores
According to data provided at the end of May 2013 by (Consar), “Comisión Nacional del Sistema de Ahorro para el Retiro” (National Commission of Savings System for Retirement), the Afores administered resources worth 1,994,319.7 million pesos (USD 156.936 million), which in accordance to the valuation of the instruments that make up the investment portfolio at market prices on May 31, 2013, represents a 3.88% fall from the previous month.
Regarding the portfolio composition, we note that government debt continues to lead but decreases from 53.2% to 51.2% of the resources invested, while domestic private debt increases from 17.5% to 18.3%, followed by international equities with 15.2%. Mexican equities stand at 9.3%, structured funds at 3.9%, international debt remains stable at 2.1% and commodities are at 0.055% of the portfolio.
In the first month with decreases in the managed resources this year, basically all types increased their share except for government debt which fell by 3.77% and commodities which were stable.
Foto cedidaGino Lorenzini . “Felices y Forrados” Evaluates Starting an AFP
“Felices y Forrados” continues to create controversy within the pension fund industry. Gino Lorenzini, founder of the website, said he is evaluating the possibility of opening an AFP to compete in the market, following the polemic that has ensued by the mass transfer of contributors from one fund to another.
As stated by him in an interview with Radio Cooperativa, they have already begun their search for capital.
“I will seriously assess the raising of capital, and that’s what I’m doing, to form an AFP and compete one on one with the AFPs themselves, from there on we’ll let the market decide. Don’t you love a free market? I’m fascinated by it, but I like a real free market, not a colluded one. We’ll face it head on,” Lorenzini said to Radio Cooperativa.
The founder of the website said he was prepared to lose his venture should the multiple pension funds be ruled out and the AFPs regress the law back to its original 1980 version, which would restore the 5% fluctuation reserve fund, the mechanism which guaranteed against losses and which, in the event of high yields, these were passed on to the members.
“Felices y Forrados” is a consulting firm dedicated to providing pension fund transfers to improve profitability, and was precisely responsible for most of the recent profile changes which led to the revision of the regulations.
Foto cedidaMauricio Cárdenas (middle), Colombian Ministry of Finance and Public Credit. Colombia Streamlines and Increases the Transparency of the Investment Fund Industry
The Colombian Ministry of Finance and Public Credit has undergone a major change which affects the management of investment funds and securities custody activities respectively. These changes are the result of a coordinated effort between various Colombian financial market players, lasting over a year and a half.
Mauricio Cardenas, Colombian Minister of Finance and Public Credit, said on Monday that these decrees allow Colombians easier, safer and more reliable access to the stock market. “These rules aim to boost this industry which on a worldwide basis is one of the most efficient means to channel the savings of individuals and companies to the capital markets,” the official assured.
In this regard, the Ministry issued Decrees numbers 1242 and 1243 of the year 2013, which amended Decree number 2555 issued in 2010, in connection with the administration of collective investment funds and securities custody activities, respectively.
The main issues covered by the decrees are:
In order that ordinary people may access collective investment funds as an efficient and safe method for saving their resources in the capitals market, the specialization of the different activities necessary for the operation of the aforementioned aspects (management, administration, distribution and custody) is permitted. This allows the reduction of costs for investors and provides greater access to these types of products.
Investors may turn to brokerage firms, trust companies and investment management companies to invest their resources in collective investment funds. Relevant studies will be conducted in those institutions as to their risk profile and other aspects which will allow determining the most appropriate investment for each investor, therefore adequately protecting their interests.
It eases the process of authorization and distribution of collective investment funds which invest in traditional assets such as stocks and bonds, creating a faster channel in which the Financial Superintendence of Colombia authorizes fund families for this type of products.
For funds which invest in non-traditional assets (invoices, commodities, court decisions, etc.), on which most investors do not have a very deep understanding, the standards of obligations of expert advisors are broadened, and should be provided by institutions conducting the distribution of investment funds individually, to each of the investors who require it. Establishing special cases such as funds with any type of borrowings above the amount of fund resources (leverage), in which the type of client that may access them shall be limited.
In order to protect investors’ resources and prevent them from being used to fulfill transactions belonging to either the management companies or to other clients, securities custody activity is introduced into national regulation, which involves the obligation of guaranteeing the custody of securities of collective investment funds with a trust company. This development puts the country in line with international safety standards and transparency in managing funds’ resources.
Additionally, in order to encourage the implementing of the aspect of custody in the stock market, the possibility of exercising it voluntarily in the administration of third party resources by brokerage firms and investment trusts administered by trust companies is established.
The Colombian government expects that this reform will speed up the development of this important, although still small industry, which manages assets of close to 6% of GDP, which is low compared to other economies in the region such as Chile where funds manage 15 % of GDP, or Brazil, where it reaches levels similar to those of advanced economies with 60% of GDP.
Wikimedia CommonsDonald Trump Jr speaking in Miami. Donald Trump Jr: “Latin America Has Been and is on Our Radar”
Donald Trump Jr, executive vice president of Trump Organization, made a stopover at Miami on Monday to deliver a lecture as part of the Terrapinn Private Equity World & Real Estate World Latin America Forum, which on Monday and Tuesday gathered more than 300 private equity industry and real estate professionals focused mainly in Latin America or with interests in the region.
Speaking to Funds Society, Trump Jr said that his organization has always had, and continues to have Latin America on its radar and that wherever they have spotted interesting opportunities and wherever investors have sought to take advantage of a luxury brand like theirs, they have closed deals and will continue to do so in the future. “Those interested in Trump understand the premium they pay for a brand like ours,” he stressed.
“México, if not now, later”
As regards Mexico’s specific case and the potential investment opportunities or agreements there, he emphasized that in recent times he has traveled to Mexico about 30 times, it’s a country which he knows very well and which “has wonderful places. If not now, it will be later, “added Donald Trump’s son, who along with his siblings, Ivanka and Erik, works very closely in expanding real estate interests, both in the residential, commercial and golf clubs in the United States and outside of the brand.
Just last February the brands Donald J. Trump Signature Collection (hotels), and Trump Home signed an agreement with P & L Global Networks, which they appointed as the exclusive company to implement and launch new developments in Latin America.
Currently, the American real estate giant is present in the region in Panama, Puerto Rico and has a residential development in Punta del Este (Uruguay), plus it is engaged in the development of Puerto Maravilha in Rio de Janeiro, one of Brazil ‘s most ambitious projects and to which the Trump organization lends its brand.
“Trump Towers Rio: Realizing the potential of Porto Maravilha”
It was precisely “Trump Towers Rio: Realizing the potential of Porto Maravilha” which was the theme of yesterday’s presentation before a large group of professionals by Trump Jr. and by Stefan Ivanov, CEO of Trump Towers Rio and CIS of MRP International, co-developers of the project with the company Even.
The project is backed by strong support from Rio’s City Hall and from the Brazilian government, who have committed 4,000 million dollars in works of infrastructure. Amongst them, 4 miles of tunnels, 85 miles of sewerage system, 70 miles of street repaving, 650,000 meters of sidewalks and 32 kilometers of transport system lines from the local airport to the area, to name just a few.
As for the project’s investment opportunity, Ivanov stressed that it is a “unique development in Latin America” and a unique opportunity in the city, which today has only 6% of office space. Ivanov also said that the Brazilian government should give a good boost to projects like this because of the proximity of the celebration of the 2016 Rio Olympic Games and the 2014 World Cup in Brazil.
Wikimedia CommonsFoto: Joseph Plotz. Lucent Strategic Land, un fondo que aprovecha el déficit de viviendas en Reino Unido
The lack of sufficient buildable land with planning permission in the UK puts the British residential market in short supply for a huge demand, a situation which has not gone unnoticed by Lucent Group, who launched the Lucent Strategic Land Fund (LSLF) in September 2010 to take advantage of those market shortages.
Given this situation and the need to increase the housing stock, Lucent saw an opportunity to focus on those areas of greatest growth in England, as explained by Kevin Ballard, Business Development Manager for Lucent Group in an interview with Funds Society.
Ballard reaffirms that residential development land in the UK is a limited resource, so it is an asset that institutional investors increasingly incorporate to their portfolios. “This shortage will only increase, because as the population increases land will become increasingly scarce, so its value will continue to rise.”
Due to the strict Government National Planning & Policy Framework guidelines it has been difficult to meet planning requirements but as LSLF was created from an established land site assembly company all the expertise, experience and contacts to be able to deliver sites is available ‘in house’. With housebuilding in the UK at its lowest since the point in over 50 years and the failure to satisfy the constant increase of the housing demand in recent years has created a ‘structural deficit’.
The experts on the field acknowledge that the shortage of residential development and land with planning consent is the key constraint for increasing the housing supply; “this is exactly what LSLF delivers”. The proof of that is in last years amendments to the National Planning Policy Framework, in order to focus the effort on make more dynamic the house building process, as well as to work towards a sustained development in the country, among other objectives.
The British Government is trying to increase the housing supply. But up to the present day, there are not enough sites with planning consent to meet the large demand for houses in the UK, where historically, the land is some of the most valuable in the world.
The Fund can only seek control over land that has already been identified for residential development by a local council/authority and typically close to large towns or cities in areas of identified growth. This greatly reduces risk. Lucent then undertake all the work involved in the planning process to achieve planning consent. This planning stage can take between 1-3 years.
The next step is selling the land to national housebuilders, Lucent do not get involved in the development of it. As well as not being involved in the building process, neither do they invest in land if they do not see a clear opportunity. “If the land is not expected to generate a 21% return on it, we do not buy”, stated Ballard. Independent pre acquisition financial modelling is used to reverse engineer the anticipated return.
Ballard also explained that before they buy, they run 12 physical Tests to determine the situation of the land and viability of the site.
“This targeted acquisition strategy is aimed at mitigating planning risk while enabling shareholders to benefit from the largest capital gain anywhere within the real estate cycle”, Said Ballard.
The Lucent Strategic Land Fund (LSLF) is Open Ended, domiciled in Luxembourg and regulated by the “Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier” (CSSF), the Luxembourg financial services authority. LSLF commenced operations in September 2010 with the objective of providing capital gains in excess of 12% net of fees to the investors. It has returned 62% since launch.
The Fund is distributed through broker dealers and IFAs with an increasing focus on institutional investment. LSLF is available via numerous insurers, Banks & investment platforms including Pershing.
LSLF has a truly global investor base with the main markets being: Far East, Middle East & Latin America. Lucent are focusing on expanding their LA investor base and were in Miami to meet Pershing broker dealers as the Fund has recently been added to their platform.
