Although the Eurozone recovery remains on track, slowing inflation and euro appreciation is putting pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy further this week. However, ING Investment Management does not expect a rate cut (yet). Also the euro does not seem to be much overvalued. Meanwhile, markets are again more driven by liquidity.
The output gap in the Eurozone has steadily widened since 2008 which implies consistent downward pressure on domestically generated inflation. As the graph shows, inflation in the euro region is on a clear downward trend since the end of 2011.
Developments of EUR/USD and inflation since 2007
Pressure on ECB to loosen policy further The slowing inflation highlights how sluggish the region’s recovery is. In October, inflation fell from 1.1% in September to a lower than expected 0.7%, the lowest rate since late 2009. Core inflation (ex food and energy) also fell and is now just 0.8%.
The ongoing decline in inflation, combined with the rise in the euro, is therefore set to increase the pressure on the ECB to loosen monetary policy further. The possibility of a further cut in the policy rate, or new liquidity measures in the form of an LTRO (long-term refinancing operation), is however not a forgone conclusion as the central bank’s governing council seems to be quite deeply divided. Slowing inflation and the appreciation of the euro are arguments in favour of a rate cut, while the improvement – while still fragile – in the real economy and the expectation that inflation will pick up next year (the ECB’s inflation forecast for 2014 is 1.3%) are the main reasons cited by those favouring no change in policy.
Despite the pressure to loosen policy further, the central bank may yet wait until its December meeting when the new quarterly ECB staff macroeconomic projections will provide more insight. This week President Draghi might state that the risks to inflation have shifted to the downside and that an interest rate cut is a possibility, in a bid to – at least temporarily – halt the euro’s rise and keep interest rate expectations low.
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Chris Bullock, co-manager of the Henderson Horizon Euro High Yield Bond Fund. European High Yield Takes on Greater Prominence
Once the preserve of the US, the high yield bond market has followed the trend towards a more globalised world and this is evident in the increasing share of European high yield bonds within the global high yield market.
The chart below shows the market value of the US, European and emerging market high yield bond markets. From a standing start in the mid to late 1990s, the high yield bond market in Europe has grown to represent more than 20% of the global market.
Source: Bloomberg, August 1986 to September 2013. Market Value in USD using BofA ML regional indices (H0A0, HP00, EMHB).
Growth in the European high yield bond market has been particularly rapid since the eruption of the financial crisis. Starved of capital from the banks, which are shrinking their bloated balance sheets, companies are increasingly forced to look towards high yield bonds as a source of financing. The proceeds were deployed primarily to refinance and for general corporate purposes, rather than more aggressive activities such as merger and acquisitions, although there has been greater evidence of the latter this year as corporate executives regain confidence.
The fact that the European high yield market has grown so strongly since the financial crisis has had an interesting structural influence on the market. The last five years has been characterised by a more conservative atmosphere prevailing among ratings agencies. The general drop in sovereign and corporate ratings means that the European high yield market is very diverse in types of issuers and therefore more of a mainstream, liquid market. In addition, alongside companies that would ordinarily be classed as high yield are fallen angels (former investment grade companies), that are likely to recover their higher rating as their prospects improve. A good example would be Continental, the global tyre manufacturer, which recently regained its BBB rating.
The relatively young, but fast-growing European high yield market means there are lots of new names so it is a market that rewards intelligent research and good stock-picking. There remains considerable dispersion in spreads (yield premium over government bonds) across the different ratings in high yield, again creating opportunities for additional gains from astute stock selection.
We expect the European high yield market to follow the US experience, so the coming decades are likely to see significant growth ahead, not just in terms of the size and depth of the market, but also in terms of the experience and confidence of the participants on both the borrowing and lending sides. Market growth, therefore, becomes self-reinforcing as the European high yield bond market matures.
Chris Bullock, co-manager of the Henderson Horizon Euro High Yield Bond Fund
The Carlyle Group announced that Kewsong Lee will join the firm as Deputy Chief Investment Officer for Corporate Private Equity. Mr. Lee comes to this newly-created position at Carlyle from Warburg Pincus where he was Managing Director and Member of the Executive Management Group. Mr. Lee begins his duties in late December and will be based in New York and Washington, DC.
Carlyle Co-Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer William E. Conway, Jr. said, “Carlyle’s greatest strength is the depth, continuity and collegiality of our global investment professionals. Kew will be a great addition to this team and will play a critical role in helping us ensure the platform we have created continues to make superb investments and create value for our investors.”
Mr. Lee said, “It is an honor to have the chance to join one of the industry’s most successful buyout platforms and to work with Bill and his team. This is an exciting time in Carlyle’s history and I am eager to learn and contribute. After 21 wonderful years at Warburg Pincus, I wish my colleagues all the best.”
As Deputy CIO, Mr. Lee will assist Mr. Conway in a range of activities related to investing and managing Carlyle’s Corporate Private Equity platform, which consists of 11 buyout and growth capital funds totaling $58 billion in assets under management. In addition to becoming a member of each fund’s investment committee, Mr. Lee will join the firm’s Management and Operating Committees, and also help with corporate development for the firm.
Mr. Lee joined Warburg Pincus in 1992, and was a Member of the Executive Management Group. Most recently, he led the firm’s Consumer, Industrial and Services group, and in the past, played an instrumental role in developing Warburg Pincus’s leveraged buyout and special situations efforts. He also led the firm’s financial services practice and helped drive the firm’s capital markets activities. Prior to Warburg Pincus he was a consultant at McKinsey & Company, Inc.
During his Warburg Pincus tenure, Kewsong Lee led numerous transactions, including The Neiman Marcus Group, Aramark, Transdigm, Polypore and Arch Capital Group.
In addition to serving on a variety of corporate boards, he is involved with several committees at Harvard University, and is a Trustee of Choate Rosemary Hall and a member of the Executive Committee of Lincoln Center Theater.
Mr. Lee, 48, earned his MBA from Harvard Business School and his AB in Applied Mathematics in Economics from Harvard College
Photo: Dominicus Johannes Bergsma. Grupo SURA Closes a Positive Quarter With a 28% Annual Growth in Revenues
Grupo SURA published its 3Q13 results, a period that highlights operating revenues amounting to COP 304,919 million (USD 160 million). The above represents, so far this year, a total sum of COP 702,313 million (USD 368 million) with a 28% annual growth.
Likewise, the accumulated net profit was COP 593,647 million (USD 311 million), with a 29.3% annual increase. Net contribution in the quarter was COP 244,217 million (USD 128 million), which represents a 293% increase compared to 2Q13, and 89% higher than the same period in 2012.
The sound performance in 3Q13 is based on the good operating results of subsidiaries Suramericana and SURA Asset Management, and on the recovery of global markets reflected on investment yields as well as the dividends registered on the income statement of Grupo SURA.
Figures backing the sound financial position
On the other hand, the Company’s assets reached COP 22.3 billion (USD 11.7 billion), a figure that displays an 8.2% increase compared with June, 2013, and a 3.15% increase at the end of 2012. With regards to Total Liabilities, a 15.8% decrease was achieved in the quarter, with closes at September with a historically low financial indebtedness coefficient of 2.2%. In addition, the result of the rating revision made by Standard & Poor’s is worth highlighting, which climbed from BBB- to BBB with stable outlook. This improved rating sheds light on the Company’s strengths in terms of the consolidation of its operations in Latin America, the performance of its businesses in different countries, the financial soundness of its investments. Indeed, S&P acknowledges, among others, the Company’s flexibility to access capital, sound investments portfolio, and stable flow of dividends.
Moreover, the financial results are supported by the Company’s inclusion, for the third year in a row, in the Dow Jones Sustainability Global Index, which assesses the social, economic and environmental performance of organizations. Grupo SURA obtained an important valuation in the economic setting, displaying one of the best scores.
It is also worth highlighting that the Company in Q3 successfully completed the merger process after acquiring 50% of AFP Horizonte in Peru, a process made by SURA Asset Management, subsidiary of Grupo SURA. The merger was completed within the terms set forth when the purchase was announced. The pension funds of subsidiaries rising from AFP Horizonte, assigned to AFP Integra, are already being managed by this pension fund manager of SURA, turning Integra into a largest pension fund of Peru.
“We are extremely satisfied with the Company’s results of the end of the quarter. Operations in different countries still display a good performance, our growth plans are still underway in accordance with the estimates made, and the market performance was favorable as well. Likewise, today we have a historically low debt indicator thanks to a rigorous plan implemented for this purpose since early 2012, which confirms the Company’s sound financial standing,” said David Bojanini, President of Grupo SURA.
Foto: Jenix89. Morgan Stanley to Invest $1 Billion in its Newly Created Institute for Sustainable Investing
Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO James Gorman announced the establishment of the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing. The Institute will build on Morgan Stanley’s ongoing work to advance market-based solutions to economic, social and environmental challenges, operating from the foundational principle that sustainable investment can only achieve significant scale by attracting a broad range of private sector capital. Through product innovation, thought leadership and scholarship aimed at expanding opportunities for sustainable investing, the Institute will seek to drive capital toward investments promoting sustainable economic growth.
The Institute for Sustainable Investing will pursue three focus areas: financial products and solutions that enable clients to invest in sustainability-focused strategies seeking risk-adjusted financial returns; groundbreaking thought leadership that will help mobilize capital toward sustainable investing opportunities; and strategic partnerships with the public, private and nonprofit sectors designed to build capacity and best practices within the field of scalable sustainable investing.
The Institute’s first major commitments include:
Setting a goal of $10 billion in total client assets through Morgan Stanley’s Investing with Impact Platformin the next five years. By developing new products, innovative thematic portfolios and sustainable investing thought leadership, this platform will meet rapidly increasing client demand for opportunities to invest for positive environmental and social impact in addition to the goal of achieving risk-adjusted financial returns.
Creating new products − in coordination with Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Long-Only and Alternative Investment Partners businesses − in which positive social and/or environmental impact is a core part of the underlying investment strategy.
Establishing an annual Sustainable Investing Fellowship program at Columbia Business School that will enable a select group of graduate students to pursue thought leadership in sustainable investing, coupled with an internship at Morgan Stanley to gain hands-on experience in product innovation, thought leadership and investment strategy.
Investing $1 billion in a sustainable communities initiativeto provide rapid access to capital for the preservation and enhancement of quality affordable housing units that are at risk of deteriorating into uninhabitable conditions or becoming unaffordable to low- and moderate-income households. The initiative will also seek to drive the integration of affordable housing with access to health care, healthy foods and other vital services. Morgan Stanley is partnering with leading community groups, including the Local Initiatives Support Corporation (LISC) and NCB Capital Impact, on the sustainable communities initiative. “This program takes our long partnership with Morgan Stanley to a new level,” said Michael Rubinger, LISC President and CEO. “It doesn’t just finance buildings; it fuels opportunity and focuses on quality of life. Together, we will be able to help low-income families live better and make their communities stronger and healthier.” Terry Simonette, President and CEO of NCB Capital Impact, said, “The sustainable communities initiative is the type of transformative investment that will help ensure the financing so desperately needed to provide access to healthy foods and other critical resources in our poorest communities. We are proud to partner with Morgan Stanley on this effort.”
Through these and future initiatives, the Institute for Sustainable Investing will further Morgan Stanley’s commitment to providing individual and institutional investors with products and strategies that address sustainability challenges at scale.
Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO James Gorman launched the Institute in a speech at Columbia Business School today. Mr. Gorman said: “Morgan Stanley is in a unique position to harness the capital markets to help address the most pressing challenges facing society today, connecting governments, investors and businesses with the capital to execute at scale. Our philosophy is clear – the most effective solutions to sustainability challenges are those that can be brought to scale. Our clients are increasingly turning their attention to what it takes to secure the lasting and safe supplies of food, energy, water and shelter necessary for sustainable prosperity.”
Mr. Gorman will chair the Institute’s Advisory Board, which will include individuals from the private and nonprofit sectors with expertise in various aspects of sustainable investing including finance, policy and management (for a list of members, see the note to editors below).
Audrey Choi, who leads Morgan Stanley’s Global Sustainable Finance group, will be CEO of the Institute for Sustainable Investing. “As the world’s population grows toward 9 billion and beyond, meeting the exponentially growing needs for quality education, healthcare, housing and security will far outstrip current models of business, government or philanthropy,” said Ms. Choi. “The Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing is committed to playing a catalytic role in forging innovative cross-sector partnerships that develop solutions to mobilize capital efficiently and effectively to meet these challenges at scale.”
William Stormont, ex co-manager at Henderson Global Investors in London, has joined Absolute Strategy Research in a sales consulting capacity, based in Vancouver, with the mission of introducing ASR’s research to fund managers in Canada and the US.
“I was formerly a client of ASR’s so was already familiar with the product and a supporter of their work. I have based myself in Vancouver, my native city, and am actively seeking to introduce ASR’s research to fund managers in Canada and the US. Though the firm is well represented in the New York and Boston areas there is considerable scope to grow in the rest of the US and Canada”, states Stormont to Funds Society.
William Stormont previously co-managed de Horizon Pan-European Equity Fund, at Henderson Global Investors in London, where he worked for nearly 6 years. Previously, he held several positions during 7 years at ABN Amro, including Head of International Hedge Fund Sales.
Gibraltar Private Bank & Trust announced that Douglas B. Sawyer has been hired as Senior Vice President, Market Executive in the bank’s Miami downtown office.
In his new role, Sawyer will be responsible for administration and growth of the market’s client portfolio as well as development of the Bank’s Fiduciary Account area. He has more than 30 years of experience in the financial industry. He was most recently president at Nason Consulting, a bank consulting company that provides strategic, operational, regulatory, management, staff and market guidance to community banks. Prior, he was an Executive Vice President at BankUnited for 8 years over which time he served as head of Bank Services, Wealth Management and Retail. Douglas also worked for 21 years at SunTrust Bank in various capacities, the most recent being executive vice president of retail overseeing the bank’s 25 retail branches in Miami-Dade County.
Sawyer is a Certified Financial Planner, holder of Series 7, 4, 24, 53, 63, 65 Securities License and holder of Florida Life Insurance and Variable Annuity License.
Douglas B. Sawyer earned a Bachelor of Science from Auburn University in Auburn, Alabama. His community involvement includes St. Thomas University Advisory Board, Christopher Columbus High School Board, Florida Bankers Association Government Relations Committee, Florida Banker Association / PAC Committee Chairman and American Heart Association, Past President, West Dade Division.
Wikimedia CommonsMap of the United States. Wealth-X Reveals America’s Wealthiest Individuals By State
Wealth-X has revealed a list of the 50 wealthiest American individuals by state (based on their business address) in 2013. These individuals are collectively worth US$540 billion, a 19 percent increase on last year.
The average net worth of the individuals on the list is US$10.8 billion – a US$1.7 billion increase on last year’s average of US$9.1 billion.
The top 10 individuals on the list – who all held the exact same spots on last year’s list – are collectively worth US$362 billion, 67 percent of the total wealth of the top 50.
Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates remains the wealthiest individual in America with an estimated net worth of US$70.8 billion, followed by Warren “Oracle of Omaha” Buffett, whose personal fortune is estimated at nearly US$60 billion.
Nine new individuals made the list this year: Micky Meir Arison (Florida); Brad Maurice Kelley (Kentucky); Kenneth B. Dart (Michigan); Whitney MacMillan (Minnesota); James Love Barksdale (Mississippi); John L. Morris (Missouri); Richard B. Cohen (New Hampshire); John A Yates (New Mexico) and Blake Roney (Utah). Collectively, their net worth is US$34 billion – 50 percent more than the combined net worth of the individuals who represented these same states on the list last year.
Below is the list of the 50 wealthiest individuals:
EFG International is well known in the Americas as a leader in international private wealth management, with its Miami office as flagship and over 60 CROs (client relationship officers) in the region, dedicated to Latin American clients. Now, the EFG Group has taken the initiative to put its asset management division, EFG Asset Management (EFGAM), on the map. EFGAM’s reorganization started almost five years ago, and is now ready to compete with international management groups as a specialist asset management company catering for private banking professionals through strategies distributed under its New Capital brand.
“EFG’s fund management capabilities were historically highly decentralized,” says Mozamil Afzal, Global CIO for EFGAM, in an interview with Funds Society, “but after the 2009 crisis we reconstructed into a group which is much more integrated, and which has seen the closure of some businesses, the restructuring of others and a significant investment in technology and compliance, as well as the creation of a totally independent board of directors.”
EFGAM is headquartered in London with additional management centers in Miami, New York, Zurich, Geneva, Hong Kong and Singapore.
The management company has just over $9 billion in assets under management; of these, $5 billion are assets of EFG International’s HNW clients; $2 billion are from institutional accounts with management mandates, and $2.2 billion are under the strategies managed by EFG’s New Capital funds, established in 2003 and whose assets are spread approximately equally between customers from EFG’s internal channel and other external channels.
“The New Capital funds wereinitially aimed at the private banking client, but in 2009 we decided we wanted to establish the company in its own right, by building a first-class asset management company which could compete on an open architecture platform with any international asset manager,” says Afzal , who, at the same time admits to value highly EFG International’s internal channel because “it provides us with seed funds for our new ideas which are also highly inspired by what the private banking customer wants. “
As a strategy, New Capital is built based on three objectives, which are a product of its history as an asset management company specializing in private banking. “We know what we want,” says Afzal, “first, good returns; secondly, unique positioning of our products; and finally, an absolute return bias which defines exactly what the private banking client is looking for.”
In order to meet these objectives New Capital is launching products that “we, as clients of an asset manager, would like to buy.” When planning the launch of a strategy “we steer away from the most popular asset classes, because we would probably be late in the market,” seeking those asset classes, which will generate better than market returns in the coming years, with a focus on the much longer term.
The strategies launched by New Capital in recent years have focused on ideas like global wealth creation, through its “Wealthy Nations” fixed income strategy; or the belief that the future of economic growth lies in Asia, an idea that was implemented by launching the Asia Pacific Equity Income and China Equity strategies. In total, New Capital has seven UCITS strategies registered in Ireland with which it positions itself as an asset manager specializing in private banking, and with which it has managed to increase its assets under management from $150 million in 2009 to $2.2 billion today. “We’re not an asset manager for the retail client,” says Afzal, “but for the investment professional.”
. Biscayne Art House abre sus puertas en Miami a los amantes de la fotografía
On October 10th, Biscayne Art House, proudly invited its patrons to view the great work of Xaviera MV, Roberto Catasus, Joan Lukowiecky, Guiri Reyes, Felipe Millan & Didier Massett. Photography was the main topic of the night, which is currently on display at its location in the Brickell Financial District through the month October.
Keeping with its high spirit work expressing their vision and exposition, Biscayne Art House’s latest featured artists seamlessly meld a great variety of work. From true color and nature inspirations taken with a lenses, travel environments connoisseurs, the reality of abstract expressions, contemporary culture captivations, spiritual oriental influence and environment, the captured light reflexes in many forms, to the immense man and their surroundings.
Biscayne Art House invites you to experience their work, which has been featured throughout the world for a truly memorable experience.
Biscayne Art House’s doors are always open to everyone from the discerning connoisseur to the artistically curious from 9:00 AM until 5PM. For more information on this event, or to view photos from past events, visit their Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/BiscayneArtHouse.
