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“Our Objective is Absolute Return, Our Purpose is Capital Preservation”

“Nuestro objetivo es el retorno absoluto y nuestro fin proteger el capital” — CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrStephan Kuhnke, CEO at Bantleon Bank. "Our Objective is Absolute Return, Our Purpose is Capital Preservation”

Founded in 1991 by Jörg Bantleon, it’s not until the year 2000 that this firm, focused on the management of high quality bond portfolios, starts to manage assets. Their strategy and focus towards “secure” investments took them in 2012 to surpass EUR10 bn in assets under management. The premises are clear “first preserve the capital, and then maximize concentration in order to achieve attractive returns” as matter of fact almost 60% of the company’s capital is invested in Bantleon funds.

With offices in Switzerland and Germany, Bantleon counts with a team of 32 people, of which 13 of them are asset managers or investment professionals, stable and with little rotation. Their offer includes investment grade bond funds, absolute return and multi strategy funds, fundamentally directed toward institutional clients.

In 2008 they launched the Bantleon Opportunities L strategy that benefits from the joint economic development of both the bond and equity markets. The returns come from the intense duration management together with the flexible investment in equities that can be of either 0% or 40%.

“Our fundamental focus is on predicting the estate of the economic cycle” comments Stephan Kuhnke, CEO of Bantleon Bank and responsible for portfolio management and trading, in an exclusive interview for funds society.

“On the equity side of the portfolio we invest in the DAX, as it’s the index that best represents the real economy, compared to the MSCI World that underperforms in upswings but falls less in downswings. The companies in the DAX are export oriented and therefore highly correlated to the economic cycle and it’s also the most liquid index”.

According to Kuhnke, their model counts with two components, strategic and tactic. “For the strategic component we analyze the fundamental environment to predict where we are within the economic cycle and determine if we invest or not in equity.” The floor is zero. The tactical side combines trends and momentum.

The results of both components have to be positive in order for the strategy to invest in equity. If either is negative, they do not enter the equity market. “Our objective is absolute return, our purpose is capital preservation”.

The bond portfolio plays with the carry and the duration of the bonds, that ranges from 0 to 9 (0-2-4-9). “We mainly invest in debt with AAA rating”.

Since its launch Bantleon Opportunities has never had a negative year. Even during the most turbulent markets like the 2000-2002 crisis or the collapse of the financial markets in 2008, their management method has been very stable. This good track record has got them various Lipper and Bloomberg prizes and a 5 star Morningstar rating. In 2012 and this year, Bantleon has been awarded with the FeriEuroRatingServices as the best manager in Germany, Austria and Switzerland in the absolute return category.

As for 2014, Kuhnke expects the economic cycle to continue its positive trend until the second quarter that will be followed by some slower growth. “In this scenario we will be long in equities and reduce the duration of our portfolio.”

Nevertheless, towards the third quarter of the year, “things will change towards a low growth environment that will lead us to close our position in equity and increase duration”.

Multi-Asset Views: Four Equity Investment Themes for 2014

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Philip Saunders, portfolio manager across the Investec Managed Solutions Range, gives four equity themes for 2014

1) Continue to avoid the mega-cap dinosaurs

Market indices around the world are dominated by companies that have seen better days. They look cheap and offer tempting dividend yields but often face serious strategic challenges. Some will prosper and some rejuvenate themselves but most are likely to continue to languish. Small caps, mid-caps and the smaller large caps are likely to go on out-performing. We prefer quality growth stocks, especially in the cyclical sectors, well-judged recovery stocks and small & mid cap stocks around the world. What does this mean for investors? In our view this is positive for actively managed equity funds that are prepared to diverge significantly from the weightings of the major market indices.

2) Increase exposure to emerging market equities and debt on weakness

Emerging markets have been disappointing in 2013 with slower growth and weakening currencies leading to sustained downgrades to forecasts of corporate earnings growth. This in turn has undermined equity valuations. Valuations are now attractive in both absolute terms and relative to developed markets but earnings forecasts continue to be reduced. Bond yields have backed up, partly in tandem with developed market yields, partly due to domestic problems. Some currencies have fallen to attractive levels. An emerging markets crisis, marked by currency collapses, capital flight, much higher interest rates and a recession, is highly unlikely but markets could continue to be dull in the short term. Nevertheless, a strategy of building long term equity exposure during the year is likely to be well-rewarded while further currency weakness could provide an attractive long term opportunity to invest in emerging markets. What does this mean for investors? In our view this is an opportunity to add exposure to emerging market equities and debt into weakness – but be prepared to be patient

3) Quality and ‘contrarian’ stocks should continue to out-perform

Many investors in 2013 made the mistake of assuming that ‘quality’ was synonymous with large-cap defensive sectors. Quality implies consistent business strategies, durable market opportunity, long term growth, well-managed finances and high returns on invested capital. These characteristics are to be found in all sectors, both cyclical and non-cyclical. Typically, quality stocks are not cheap but reassuringly expensive; nevertheless sustained long term growth ensures attractive investor returns. ‘Contrarian’ investing in out-of-favour stocks and sectors can also be highly rewarding but the investment world is full of value traps; stocks that appear cheap and pay generous dividends but whose businesses are in long-term decline.

Turn-around stocks are cheap because they are high risk but value realisation depends on business turn-around if investors are to regain confidence. The world is full of value investors but there are many fewer prepared to pay up for quality or with the courage to identify and back companies with real turn-around potential. What does this mean for investors? In our view, investors should be wary of lowly valued stocks with a high yield which are often cheap for a reason. Paying up for quality and buying true contrarian stocks should continue to be rewarded.

4) Resource equities are about value added, not commodity prices

Commodity prices continue to trade sideways, the performance of the energy sector has improved but mining shares, especially precious metal miners, have languished. The problem for energy companies has been replacing reserves at reasonable cost but for miners it has been scaling back over-ambitious expansion plans.

Reducing costs, improving license terms and returning cash to investors have been key across both sectors. Investors continue to shun mining stocks, despite compelling cashflow valuations. They favour integrated majors, many of which are strategically challenged, rather than the growth companies. This creates great opportunities for active stock-picking. What does this mean for investors? We think the outlook for the resource sector is better than implied by current investor pessimism, especially given the opportunity for adding value through stock selection.

Entrepreneurship in Asia

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Emprender en Asia — . Entrepreneurship in Asia

We have witnessed the rise of many successful entrepreneurs in Asia over the past few decades. One criticism of their success, however, has been that their businesses often were developed through “copying” or learning from Western businesses. It is true that their businesses have not been as revolutionary as some Western businesses have been. There is nothing inherently wrong with this, nor should it be surprising at Asia’s current stage of economic development. But we do not believe this model will always be the case.

Many policymakers in Asia have made innovation a national, strategic priority. In the past two decades, they have narrowed the gap in research and development (R&D) with their Western peers through rising R&D spending in academia and increasing technology transfer by attracting knowledge-intensive foreign direct investments (FDI), which taps a pool of more highly educated workers. The effort has given rise to numerous research hubs equipped with good infrastructure and skilled workers. Driven by the explosion in Internet penetration and rising personal income, private sectors have become more active and funding for start-ups is increasing as more angel and venture capital communities develop.

R&D Funding

Since the early 1990s, greater emphasis on science and engineering has significantly improved the overall quality and quantity of such professionals in Asia. This effort increased Asia’s share of global R&D expenditure to 32% in 2009, up from 24% in 1999.

This increase was supported by both growing GDP and increased spending for R&D, with results most evident in China and South Korea. The rising amount of funding going into the sciences, predominantly in China, Taiwan and South Korea, has led to more students pursuing related higher education degrees. The number of science and engineering degrees earned in China and Taiwan more than doubled between 2000 and 2008, and accordingly, the increase in such graduates has raised Asia’s labor supply of scientists.

Industrial Policies
Governmental development policy has generally built up good infrastructure and created an educated and knowledgeable labor force. Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore have had success after their respective governments focused on developing specific sectors like semiconductors, automotives and airlines. In the past decade, less mature Asian economies have utilized methods like public procurements and technology funds to implement their industrial policies aimed at boosting local innovation. Increasingly, they are also using FDI to achieve their objective by increasing technology transfer.

However, traditionally, instead of developing a network of local suppliers, foreign companies have sourced from the same suppliers due to a lack of scale or due to trust and quality. As a result, governments have increasingly offered various financial incentives for foreign multinational corporations to conduct R&D in Asia’s science parks. Today, according to UNESCO, there are over 400 science parks worldwide. While the U.S. and Japan top the list with more than 110 centers each, China—which did not start developing science parks until the mid-1980s—already has approximately 100.

As a result, U.S. multinational corporations are increasingly allocating R&D projects to their foreign affiliates in Asia Pacific ex-Japan, whose R&D project value grew more than seven-fold from 1997 to 2010. These activities are driving the rise of hubs equipped with technology infrastructure and well-educated labor pools across Asia, which is a precondition of start-ups‘ creation and expansion.

Through this link you may access the full report “Entrepreneurship in Asia”, by Jerry Shih, CFA, Research Analyst, Matthews Asia

The views and information discussed represent opinion and an assessment of market conditions at a specific point in time that are subject to change. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy and sell particular securities or markets in general. The subject matter contained herein has been derived from several sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of compilation. Matthews International Capital Management, LLC does not accept any liability for losses either direct or consequential caused by the use of this information. Investing in international and emerging markets may involve additional risks, such as social and political instability, market illiquidity, exchange-rate fluctuations, a high level of volatility and limited regulation. In addition, single-country funds may be subject to a higher degree of market risk than diversified funds because of concentration in a specific geographic location. Investing in small- and mid-size companies is more risky than investing in large companies, as they may be more volatile and less liquid than large companies. This document has not been reviewed or approved by any regulatory body.

The Family Wealth Conversation

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Enseñando al cliente a traspasar su fortuna a sus herederos — Wikimedia CommonsWilliam Finnegan from MFS. The Family Wealth Conversation

William Finnegan, Senior Managing Director of Global Retail Marketing at MFS highlights the challenges investors face when their inheritance gets passed on to their heirs. He provides solutions to this challenge to make this transition a smoother process.

Click on the video for full interview.

Private Equity Buyouts Improve Operations and Management

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Private equity firms often get a bad rap in the popular media — picture Gordon Gekko in the 1980s movie Wall Street and, more recently, negative characterizations during the last presidential election — but new research by Stanford faculty member Shai Bernstein should dispel some of the myths about this class of investments.

“The public debate about private equity often lacks data upon which to base its arguments,” says Bernstein, who is an assistant professor of finance at Stanford Graduate School of Business. “We wanted to take an in-depth look at the operations of these privately held firms, which are, more often than not, hidden from the public eye.”

After a rigorous analysis of private equity (PE) buyouts in the restaurant industry in Florida, which looked at 103 separate deals from 2002 to 2012 and 3,700 restaurant locations, Bernstein and Harvard Business School faculty member Albert Sheen found strong evidence that private equity buyouts actually improved management practices and operations, as well as decreased prices, all with a minimal impact on employment.

While the study focuses on a single industry and geography, Bernstein stipulates that the findings are indicative of the broader value created by PE buyouts. As he explains, the restaurant industry has much in common with other sectors that attract private equity firms — they have tangible assets, relatively simple operations, and predictable cash flows. “We believe we can draw broader conclusions from these deals,” he says, although noting that some caution should be used in making generalizations.

The researchers decided to focus their efforts on restaurants because of the industry’s pervasive practice of dual ownership, in which a parent company directly owns and manages some locations and others are franchised. In general, a parent company has much less control over franchisees than locations that are directly owned. According to Bernstein, this provided a uniquely controlled experiment about the value added by PE firms, allowing the researchers to compare the effect of private equity ownership on direct-owned versus franchised locations.

“The Operational Consequences of Private Equity Buyouts: Evidence from the Restaurant Industry” is part of a series for the Rock Center for Corporate Governance, a joint initiative of Stanford Law School and Stanford Graduate School of Business.

The Third Plenum

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The Chinese government recently released details of the reforms announced at the Third Plenum and the market has reacted positively. The Plenum is a key meeting of top Communist Party leaders to discuss China’s future policy direction. At the center of the policy changes are reforms addressing the government’s role in the economy and business, and the introduction of more market-orientated mechanisms to guide the development of industries.

While the reforms will have varying implications for different industries, the reduction in the role of the state alone could spark a drop in the risk premium applied to the Chinese market where indices are dominated by mega cap state-owned enterprises (SOE) trading at low price-to-earnings and price-to-book value multiples. The Plenum also addressed critical reform agendas that will improve the prospects for social stability and the rise of consumption, such as relaxing the one child policy, increasing rural ownership and land use rights for farmers and those owning agricultural land, and changes to the ‘hukou’ system of urban social welfare entitlements, all of which can help rebalance the Chinese economy over the long term.

We believe that market sentiment will be lifted by the announced reforms as investors witness the improving quality of economic growth and evolution of the financial and real estate sectors as well as fiscal policy and pension systems. A re-rating of Chinese equity markets is also likely, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises H Shares Index currently looking cheap on a forward P/E ratio of less than 9x – see chart 1.

Chart 1: Is a Chinese re-rating overdue?

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Source: Datastream, Hang Seng China Enterprises H Shares Index, price earnings ratio, monthly data, 31 October 2003 to 31 October 2013.

The Chinese economy has continued its cyclical expansion with rising economic growth and industrial activity. Rising growth appears to be the result of government policy augmented by strengthening recoveries in Japan, Europe and the US. Clearer policy direction has certainly come from the Third Party Plenum. We believe there is sufficient scepticism over the Chinese story to allow ongoing positive surprises for some months. Stock picking should add value in this environment. We see abundant growth and value opportunities at present. Consumption stocks tend to be somewhat more expensive, but continue to offer high growth rates in earnings. Meanwhile, large state-owned enterprises (e.g. CNOOC) appear remarkably good value and valuations imply very negative outcomes, which we do not believe will occur.

Opinion column by Charlie Awdry, Investment Manager, China Opportunities Strategy, Henderson Global Investors.

Azimut and Futurainvest Sign a Joint Venture To Provide Financial Advisory Services in Brazil

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Azimut sigue de compras en Brasil — Wikimedia CommonsPhoto: Rosana Prada. Azimut and Futurainvest Sign a Joint Venture To Provide Financial Advisory Services in Brazil

Azimut, Italy’s leading independent asset manager, and FuturaInvest, have signed an investment and shareholders agreement to set up a partnership to provide financial advisory services in the Brazilian market.

FuturaInvest, founded by 6 partners with proven experience in the financial industry with an average tenure of 12 years and a strong track record, counts 35 people and 11 offices around Brazil, providing advisory and asset allocation services via funds selection, financial education, and asset management services through funds of funds and managed accounts to around 2,500 clients.

Subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions precedent, the transaction will entail the acquisition, through AZ Brasil, of a 50% stake in three entities: (i) a financial advisory company, (ii) an asset management company (dedicated to funds of funds and managed accounts) and, (iii) subject to the approval of the Banco Central do Brasil countersigned by the President of Brazil, in FuturaInvest DTVM (Distribuidora de Titulos de Valores Mobiliarios). FuturaInvest DTVM is a regulated financial institution authorized to distribute financial products to local investors (operative since September 2013).

The overall transaction value is around $5.3 millon (R$ 12.5 million) mainly paid via a capital increase, which will finance the growth envisaged in the business plan. Furthermore, the agreement contemplates the possibility of a maximum adjustment to the subscription price in connection with the business development over the first three years of operations. As at 30th November 2013 FuturaInvest has around $97 million.

Azimut and FuturaInvest management share the same medium-long term commitment and will cooperate to grow the existing business also by hiring new financial advisors, opening new offices to extend the country’s coverage and increasing the funds of funds product offering.

Merrill Lynch Study Debunks Myth of Gender-based Differences in Investing Behavior

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Myths about the innate differences between men and women when it comes to investing behavior and performance are debunked in a new research report publishedby the Merrill Lynch Wealth Management Institute. A study of 11,500 investors found that while men and women differ in their approach to investment decision-making, gender is less a determinant of investing success than other social, demographic and circumstantial factors.

The Merrill Lynch report, “Women and Investing: A Behavioral Finance Perspective,” suggests that the basis of previous research, which focuses on investing behavior of men versus women, has relied on stereotypes that are limiting in scope. The goal for researchers and advisors is to move away from gender comparisons and instead focus on women’s varied and unique perspectives.

Numerous studies have found that compared to men, women are more averse to investment risk, less engaged in investment decision-making, trade less often and establish investment goals that put the needs of family and community ahead of personal needs.

Merrill Lynch analyzed the behavior and preferences of women investors through a wider lens of social and demographic factors, and found that men and women are far more alike than many people have thought.

Key findings of this research include:

Eighty-five percent of women agree that risk-taking is beneficial, and 81 percent of women feel they can adapt to changing market conditions and investment outcomes.
Men and women who have a similar level of financial knowledge share similar risk behavior. The greatest differentiating factor among investors is their perceived financial knowledge, and women are more likely than men to say they have lower levels of financial knowledge. More than half (55 percent) of women, but only 27 percent of men, agree they know less than the average investor about financial markets and investing.
One-half (50 percent) of women and 55 percent of men want to be personally engaged in making investment decisions.
Approximately one-half of women (51 percent) are concerned they might not reach a key investment goal: having enough money for the rest of their lives. While 58 percent of women say their focus on investing is to meet the needs of their family, more than 40 percent said they do not feel they should put financial support for other family members ahead of their own goals.

“Our research reinforces the importance of concentrating on the unique, personal goals of each investor. Doing so can identify a deeper understanding of the individual’s concerns and priorities which may better align investments to achieve the outcomes the investor desires,” said Michael Liersch, head of Behavioral Finance for Merrill Lynch Wealth Management. “We believe we need to change the dialogue with both men and women, to discuss what really matters to them and what they want their investments to achieve.”

The Merrill Lynch report provides three key action steps action steps for advisors to better understand the unique perspective of men and women clients:

Engage both men and women in dialogue about the investment process. Identifying the right level of engagement can be useful in gaining experience and confidence with investing and managing investments toward desired outcomes.
Make investing personally meaningful. Articulating specific, personally meaningful goals – such as meeting lifestyle needs or leaving money to family members – can help investors develop the right investment strategy.
Structure communication with key decision makers. Identifying various perspectives on investment can help joint decision makers come to the right set of investment-related actions.

A copy of the Merrill Lynch paper “Women and Investing: A Behavioral Finance Perspective” is available here.

A Shift From Liquidity to Fundamentals May Put Risk Assets Under Pressure

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De la liquidez a los funtamentales: posible escenario de presión para los activos de riesgo — Photo: David Illif. A Shift From Liquidity to Fundamentals May Put Risk Assets Under Pressure

As 2013 draws to a close, investors’ thoughts inevitably turn towards 2014 and the knowledge that risk assets will have to learn to begin to live without the seemingly unending flow of central bank liquidity. This presents some concerns as the earnings growth that many companies had banked on for the second half of this year has failed to materialise. If this trend continues, and the market’s focus shifts gradually from liquidity to fundamentals, risk assets may well come under pressure.

Excluding high yield, fixed income markets have had a lackluster year and we expect to see a similar trend in 2014

Excluding high yield, fixed income markets have had a lackluster year and we expect to see a similar trend in 2014. The continuing scramble for income has supported the high yield sector, which offers the highest level of income (relatively at least, although yields are low in historical terms) and the shortest duration exposure in the fixed income asset class. We regard corporate credit as a suitable asset class for a low-growth world and it is clear that coupon flows and maturities continue to easily absorb new issuance. Sectorally, financials remain in credit-friendly mode (and we expect them to remain so) but corporates appear to be increasingly equity-friendly, and thus leverage is rising. In core sovereign markets, yields will rise next year, particularly if the Federal Reserve delivers an earlier-than-expected taper (I still anticpate such a development at the end of March). However, we do not expect a rout in core markets and would anticipate 10-year US treasures to yield around 3.5% by end-2014. Sovereign markets such as the US and the UK are offering positive real yields, which will provide some valuation support in what is still a low-growth/income-hungry world.

We would anticipate 10-year US treasures to yield around 3.5% by end-2014

In terms of our recent activity, we have been taking some risk off the table in our multi-asset portfolios, primarily through reductions in emerging market equity and emerging market debt. The sell-off experienced by these asset classes in the summer, caused by concern over tapering fears, has provided a portent of events next year. Indeed, emerging market assets are likely to face a number of headwinds in 2014, namely rising treasury yields, a stronger dollar and a less benign liquidity environment.

We do not anticipate a re-run of 2013’s stellar returns but remain positive on the outlook for risk assets

Looking forward to next year, we do not anticipate a re-run of 2013’s stellar returns but remain positive on the outlook for risk assets. There are some developing tail risks (European deflation, Chinese/Japanese regional political tensions) that are not part of our core scenario, but which nonetheless provide potential uncertainty for markets should we see a continuing deterioration in the recent trends in these areas. China has thrown another wildcard into the mix with its recent announcements on domestic policy following the Third Plenum, which outlined a shift towards more market-friendly policies. However, as one would expect the timing, detail and implementation of these moves remains suitably vague.

Where Have All the Savings Gone?

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The last six years have witnessed the most severe financial crisis since the end of World War II, with household earning capacity and saving ability experiencing significant changes due to the downturn in the real economies. This challenging economic situation definitely affected household saving behavior, although the impact has been different in various countries – for some, the impact on household earning capacity was more intense than others.

European households endured a sizeable reduction in their per capita real gross disposable income (GDI), with the exception of Germany

Recently, members of Pioneer Investments investment team in Europe gathered research on Savings & Wealth Trends in 2007-2013. Their findings were very interesting and I wanted to share some highlights.

Holding Steady, Despite Challenges

European households endured a sizeable reduction in their per capita real gross disposable income (GDI), with the exception of Germany, which exhibited an increase. Saving rates for Germany and France, two countries historically characterized by high and stable levels of saving, did not show significant fluctuations in the last few years and are also expected to remain well above the 15% threshold in 2013. Japan is another country that has shown a stable saving rate (8.3% of income in 2012), although at lower levels compared to the two core euro area countries.

A “Change of Habit”, but Still Lagging Behind

The US and UK, typically considered among the highest “spenders” in the early 2000s, have shown a significant increase in the tendency to save, a sign of a “change of habit” after 2008. More restrictive credit market conditions, following the burst of the sub-prime crisis, are probably one of the main causes of this attitudinal shift. Despite the increase in saving, these two countries continue to be marked by relatively lower saving rates compared to the rest of the countries we analyzed.

Visible Declines

On the other hand, Italy, Austria, Spain and Greece have experienced a visible decline in saving over the last few years. We believe in these regions, the steep fall in incomes combined with higher taxes are key elements that have driven down the ability to save. In other words, the erosion of revenue, along with consumption levels that have not declined as rapidly, had a direct impact on household ability to accumulate resources for the future.

For 2013, with the market normalizing and some signals of a turnaround on the economic front, we believe saving rates will increase (compared to 2012) in Italy and Spain (11.9% and 8.5% respectively), while Austria should remain stable at 12%. We anticipate a further saving decrease in Greece (7.4%) and some reduction for Portugal, which is expected to revert to its historical average.

Household Wealth on the Rise?

Much of the volatility observed in household total net worth is a direct consequence of changes in financial asset prices. From 2009, most of the countries we observed underwent a period of uninterrupted growth in financial assets, thanks to both market appreciation and new money flowing into financial investments. Now, many of these financial assets have largely closed the gap in valuations with respect to 2008 (with the exception of Spain and Greece). In six year’s time, the strongest appreciation was reported by France and the UK, where household assets are now up 19% compared to 2007 values, followed by Austria (+17%) , Germany (+15%) and the US (+13%). More subdued asset growth was recorded for peripheral European countries, where the sovereign debt crisis weighed on both household confidence as well as asset valuations.

Between 2007 and 2013, German households, on the back of a buoyant economy, experienced the most significant progress in total net wealth (+23%). German and Italian households were least affected by the collapse of financial markets in 2008. Italy, however, was unable to recover and ended up with just a 2% increase in wealth over the six-year period. Japanese household results were worse as their net wealth is expected to be 5% lower in 2013 compared to 2007.

Household Net Wealth (in % to 2007 values)

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Source: OECD, National Statistics Institutes and Central Banks, as of September 30, 2013. 2013 estimates: Pioneer Investments.

With higher exposure of portfolios to equity markets, U.S. and UK households shouldered the most significant drop in wealth in 2008. However, following the upsurge in market prices after 2009, these countries were characterized by a much quicker upturn in wealth in the following years and are expected to end 2013 with a level of total resources equal to 10% and 16%, respectively, above pre-crisis levels.

In conclusion, the evolution of household incomes is a reflection of the crises that have repeatedly shaken the world’s economies, with particularly negative consequences in Europe, which reflected an almost generalized decline in real GDP in 2008-09 and again in 2011-13.

Note: For calendar years 2007 – 2012, measurements are as of December 31. For 2013, measurements are forecasted for year-end.

Article by Giordano Lombardo, Global CIO, Pioneer Investments. This article was originally posted on followPioneer on December 11th, 2013.

The views expressed here regarding market and economic trends are those of Investment Professionals, and are subject to change at any time. These views should not be relied upon as investment advice, as securities recommendations, or as an indication of trading intent on behalf of Pioneer. There is no guarantee that these trends will continue.

This material is not intended to replace the advice of a qualified attorney, tax advisor, investment professional or insurance agent. Before making any financial commitment regarding any issue discussed here, consult with the appropriate professional advisor.