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The Self-Sustained Recovery in the US Shows no Signs of Being Derailed

Los tres riesgos que podrían hacer descarrilar la imperturbable recuperación de EE.UU. — Giordano Lombardo is Global CIO at Pioneer Investments. The Self-Sustained Recovery in the US Shows no Signs of Being Derailed

The transition towards a self-sustained recovery in the US is supported by strengthening internal demand, driven by recovering capital expenditure and household consumption. Giordano Lombardo, Global CIO at Pioneer Investments, in an update posted in the asset managers blog follow Pioneer, expects to see mixed signals coming from economic activity indicators and labor market as the economy normalizes, but does not expect the trend in the main drivers of growth to be derailed.

Pioneer Investment’s growth estimates for 2014 in the US are:

U.S. GDP growth of 2.8%.
Personal consumption estimated to grow at a moderate pace and then accelerate in the second half of the year.
Inflation expected to remain below 2% but step up gradually during the year.
Non-Residential Investments to accelerate in the second half of the year, giving momentum to acceleration in capital expenditures.

If the economy develops as the Fed currently forecasts GDP growth around 3% in 2014 and 3-3.5% in 2015, unemployment around 6% by the end of 2015 – Pioneer Investments expects QE to be wound down by the end of 2014. Interest rates could then start to slowly increase during 2015 (Fed Fund futures currently project rates to slowly start to rise above the current 0.25% level in the autumn of 2015).

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Potential Catalysts to U.S. Economic Growth

Stronger-than-expected global demand, supported by a stronger economic performance of the Euro Area could support both confidence and exports, and somewhat offset the impact from weaker growth in emerging economies.
A productivity pick-up, accelerating the pace of recent weak growth.
Stable improvements in the consumer sector balance sheet, coupled with stable income growth and progressive improvements in the labor market could support higher patterns of consumption.

Potential Risks to U.S. Economic Growth

A significantly stronger dollar might adversely impact the export sector by making U.S.-produced goods and services more expensive in foreign markets.
After years of shedding debt, the U.S. consumer might be more reluctant to spend, detracting from growth momentum.
Geopolitical tensions, involving directly or indirectly the U.S. could be highly disruptive for the flow of oil and for financial markets in general.

Data Source: Pioneer Investments

GGM Capital Opens London Office with Appointment of Gabriel Padilla as Managing Director

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GGM Capital, Luxembourg-based boutique investment bank, announced it has appointed Gabriel Padilla as Managing Director of GGM Capital Markets to head up its newly opened London office.

Gabriel has over 20 years of international experience (USA, Latin America & Europe) in business development, relationship management, sales, trading and project management in the areas of securities financing, collateral management, securities clearing, settlements and custody in international markets and across different asset classes.

During his banking career he has worked in leading international organizations including JP Morgan Chase, Banco Santander and UBS, among others.

Prior to joining GGM Capital, Gabriel showed his entrepreneurial spirit by creating and leading SecFin Consulting Limited, a London based consulting company. He is a senior advisor with Eleven Canterbury mentoring, and coaching technology and services companies, enabling them to better understand financial institutions.

Guillermo G. Morales, the Executive Chairman of GGM Capital, commented: “We are delighted to have boosted our capital markets credentials with the appointment of Gabriel and expanded into the London market. It’s an exciting time in our development and we welcome such an A class operator to the company.”

Regulation Creates Opportunities for Financials Too

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¿Cuáles son las aspiraciones de Google en el sector bancario? — Wikimedia CommonsPatrick Lemmens, portfolio manager of Robeco's strategy New World Financial Equities . Regulation Creates Opportunities for Financials Too

The effects of the last major financial crisis have been far-reaching for banks and insurance companies worldwide. Investors tend to look at the negative aspects, like higher capital requirements that put pressure on returns. “But regulation creates opportunities too”, says portfolio manager Patrick Lemmens of Robeco New World Financials Equities, who received the Lipper Fund Award on 31 March for his fund’s strong track record.

Higher capital requirements lead to more expensive banking and insurance services

The banks are responding to the higher capital requirements by charging more for their banking services, says Lemmens. The new global regulatory system for banks, Basel III, is responsible for raising these capital requirements. This system is pushing up the requirements for capital and liquidity, while financial leverage needs to be reduced. Basel III is being introduced to tackle the inadequate regulation that contributed to the major financial crisis of 2008. Lemmers explains the consequences.

“This helps banks boost returns on their capital in order to retain access to the international capital market. There are not many other options for improving profitability. Reducing costs is harder, as cuts have already been made here.” In his opinion, this also applies to insurance companies. The introduction of Solvency II is impacting the European insurance sector. The objective of this European directive is to make sure insurers have sufficient capital reserves. “Covering longevity risk costs more in the Netherlands than in other countries as a result of the regulators’ high capital requirements.”

There is also another reason why higher capital requirements can lead to raised costs. The regulators are scaring off newcomers with more stringent capital requirements and reporting obligations, says Lemmens. “They are putting up daunting barriers that make it increasingly hard for newcomers to enter. This prevents new companies that are willing to slash prices from gaining access and thus benefits the established order.”

But European payment transactions offer opportunities for newcomers

There is one section of the banking world where competition is increasing, however, and where this monopoly is being broken: European payment transactions. The reason for this is that banks in the European Union are required to provide client data to competitors to make it easier to switch from one company to another. “This should make payment transactions cheaper and easier. In the case of client data, for instance, this includes account holders’ direct-debit and standing-order authorizations,” says Lemmens.

“The banks’ monopoly on payment transactions is disappearing. Competition will increase as new players start processing payment transactions for stores and webshops, for instance. A power shift is taking place amongst those parties handling payment transactions, making way for new innovative players. This is why I invest in companies such as Optimal Payments and Wirecard. These companies are expected to show rapid growth in the coming years.”

Lemmens sees opportunities in payment transactions mainly for innovative companies that challenge the established order, and therefore does not invest in large technology companies. “I often wonder what Google is up to in the banking sector. I don’t think they intend to become a bank. Clearly, they have a lot of search data that can make them money. And they can simply buy up a bank to obtain a banking license. But the downside of such a takeover is that it puts you in full view of the regulator, who could then easily decide that Google is a systemically important bank and must maintain additional capital buffers.”

IT companies benefit from increased outsourcing

The pressure of regulation on banks and insurance companies has increased in the aftermath of the financial crisis and has led to the outsourcing of IT activities, says Lemmens. Banks and insurance companies can no longer handle these activities on their own and are finally prepared to outsource them. In his opinion, dealing with IT has become too great a challenge to handle alone.

“Just providing the regulators with all the different loan data is a massive task for the banks. This does not happen simply by pushing a button – it is a complex process. Much of this data is sourced from diverse IT systems and is subject to different methods of administration. Nevertheless, you are expected to provide it in a uniform way, and so banks have to process, match and check their loan data.” “This requires extra investments in IT. Banks now no longer want to do the work themselves and are engaging third parties to handle it for them. An added advantage of outsourcing IT is that it enables you to make the related costs more variable, causing you to become less sensitive to the economic cycle.”

“Companies such as Cognizant, Simcorp and Temenos that supply IT services for banks will benefit from this outsourcing trend. They also happen to be the companies I have in my Robeco New World Financials portfolio.”

Lemmens sums up the consequences of regulation as follows: “Regulation is generating opportunities for investors. While strengthening the established order by setting up entry barriers, it can also generate opportunities for new players such as IT companies that provide services for the financial sector and for specialized companies active in handling payment transactions.”

US Asset manager EARNEST Partners Launches a UCITS Structure in Ireland

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Responding to strong demand from overseas investors, EARNEST Partners has announced the launch of an offshore vehicle to meet such demand. The UCITS platform will offer European, Asian, and other non-U.S. investors the ability to easily access a suite of EARNEST Partners’ equity strategies, including Global Emerging Markets Equities, Pan-Asian Equities, Frontier Markets Equities, Global ex U.S. Equities, and Global Equities. The firm has been managing equities since 1999.

The UCITS vehicle is domiciled in Ireland, where the Central Bank of Ireland is the regulatory authority with responsibility for authorizing and supervising the UCITS.

When asked about the opportunity that this presents, Paul Viera, the founder and CEO of the firm stated,“We seek to offer vehicles to clients that provide regulatory oversight as well as economies of scale. The UCITS structure is seen by investors as possessing important investor protection, regulatory, and disclosure characteristics. As a global firm with investments around the world, I am pleased to expand access to those opportunities.”

The UCITS vehicle, EARNEST Partners Global Funds plc. is structured as a Self-Managed Investment Company. State Street Fund Services (Ireland) Limited is the Administrator and State Street Custodial Services (Ireland) Limited is the Custodian.

EARNEST Partners has its headquarters in Atlanta, Georgia, and offices in Beijing and Rio de Janeiro.

What do the Super-Rich Look for in a Luxury Property?

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Location, size, number of bedrooms and bathrooms are some of the most important things to the super-rich when looking to purchase a luxury home, however some are willing to sacrifice on space if the location is right, LuxuryEstate.com has revealed.

Type of property is very important to luxury buyers, about 45% of LuxuryEstate.com clients wish to have both a country house and city pad. For those only looking to purchase one property, there is an equal spilt between the city and the countryside; 27% opt for city living whilst 26% seek a rural retreat.

Location is everything for wealthy buyers. Currently, London leads the pack in desirable cities for the super-rich, with New York close behind. However an interesting new edition to the top-ten list is Miami, which sits at number seven.

Silvio Pagliani, President of LuxuryEstate.com, said: “Miami has seen a real estate boom in recent years, fuelled by low tax rates and instability in many South American countries. Miami is the nearest ‘safe’ playground for these international rich and luxury property is seen as a good investment.”

Many buyers are sacrificing on space if it means a house in the perfect location. In the most prized locations, such as central London, a quarter of LuxuryEstate.com clients dropped their standard on space to 100sqm as their absolute minimum size for a pied-à-terre. However a fifth believes they could not live in less than 1,000sqm.

Silvio Pagliani, President of LuxuryEstate.com, said: “Size is the ultimate status symbol to those wanting to buy a home in the countryside, but in London for example proximity to Harrods will often trump concerns over square footage for a residence.”

Bedrooms and bathrooms are also important factors to luxury home buyers. Around 25%, the largest percentile group, of LuxuryEstate.com clients six or more bedrooms in their homes. When it comes to bathrooms, even in smaller homes a minimum of 2 bathrooms is a must (27%), though with larger houses an ensuite for every room is required, reflected in the 22% of clients requiring six or more bathrooms in their home.

Chilean Artists in New York: 12 Women Honor Gabriela Mistral & Isabel Allende

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Gabriela Mistral e Isabel Allende, vistas desde la lupa de 12 artistas chilenas — Foto cedida. Chilean Artists in New York: 12 Women Honor Gabriela Mistral & Isabel Allende

The Gabriela Mistral Foundation US is pleased to announce a unique initiative presented by ArsFactus, an Artists Association that will feature the works of a group of women artists. The goal of this project is to honor two women of letters Gabriela Mistral and Isabel Allende by bringing together literature and the visual arts and promoting the works of these two great authors.

The artists will work with a total of 12 titles -six by Mistral, and six by Allende-, (each ArsFactus member will chose a specific title), the artists will have two copies of each book. One will be intervened creatively, resulting in one and only signed artwork to be treasured and displayed; the second “twin” book will be for reading pleasure.

The project is curated by Ms. Rocio Aranda- Alvarado, Chief Interim Curator at El Museo del Barrio, New York, and Gloria Garafulich-Grabois, Director of the Gabriela Mistral Foundation & Founder of the Chapter in Chile of the National Museum of Women in the Arts, Washington D.C.

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“Ardor” by Guadalupe Valdés

ArsFactus

ArsFactus is an independent association of twelve Chilean visual artists that project contemporary art works and curatorial programs that reflect the multiple interactions between life and art; art and the public sphere; creative artistic capital and gender empowerment. The group is conscious of regional cultural developments as well as the importance of the scope of international views, and promotes their projects with exhibitions, auctions, conversations and other venues of contemporary art, urban planning, architecture, music, literature, and cultural heritage

The ArsFactus’ artists are Denise Blanchard, Ximena Cousiño, Amelia Errázuriz, Maite Izquierdo, Catalina Mena Urmenyl, María José Mir, Alejandra Morales, Carolina Oltra, Catalina Prado, Eliana Simonetti, Guadalupe Valdés and Angela Wilson. The project manager is Fernanda Meza.

Brilla Appoints Carlos Deupi as General Counsel

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Brilla Financial Group has announced that it has hired Carlos Deupi as General Counsel, Executive Vice President and Corporate Secretary. Brilla is an international financial group catering to institutional and private clients worldwide, with broad expertise in private equity, asset management, banking, brokerage, financial advisory, insurance and trust services. Mr. Deupi will oversee and advise on general corporate, financing, and transactional and compliance matters for Brilla and its private equity funds and financial service providers.

Deupi is a corporate and securities lawyer with 25 years of experience at major law firms in New York City, Washington, D.C. and Miami. He joins Brilla from the Miami office of Squire Sanders, where he represented multinational corporations, financial institutions, banks, private equity funds and real estate firms in a variety of M&A, fund formation, investment, financing, workout and disposition deals with several billion dollars in value, as well as in regulatory matters. He also has significant experience in structuring real estate, hospitality and infrastructure transactions, including investments, financing, property acquisitions and sales, commercial leasing, construction and development.

Deupi is Chairman of the Miami Finance Forum, a leading nonprofit networking and educational association of investment and finance professionals in South Florida. He is a frequent speaker on financial and legal topics. He has been AV-rated by Martindale Hubbell since 2000, the highest possible ranking from this renowned firm.

Deupi received a B.S. in Finance from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1985. He graduated from Boston College Law School in 1988, where he was Articles and Citations Editor of the Boston College Third World International Law Journal. He has been admitted to practice law in New York, California, the District of Columbia and Florida.

“We’re delighted to have Carlos join Brilla and bring his legal background to the firm. He will be a key resource for the expansion of the group,” said David Brillembourg, Chairman & CEO of Brilla.

67% of US Executives Plan Higher-Risk Organic Growth

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Low growth and competitive disruption have prompted companies to pursue higher-risk approaches to growth than in the past, according to the tenth edition of the EY Global Capital Confidence Barometer. Although only 29% of companies are planning to pursue an acquisition in the next twelve months, down from 41% six months ago, executives’ broader confidence in the US economy and their strong deal pipelines suggest they are setting the stage for inorganic growth.

Findings from the study indicate an improving level of economic confidence. Two-thirds (66%) of executives believe the US economy is improving, up from 48% six months ago. Moreover, 29% of companies expect their deal pipelines to increase in the next 12 months, and 53% expect US deal volumes to improve. Most notably, 70% of executives cite increased confidence in corporate earnings, up from 38% six months ago and the highest level in five years.

“Companies have weathered a prolonged period of uncertainty and their primary focus was on deleveraging, and cutting costs,” said Richard Jeanneret, EY Americas Vice Chair, Transaction Advisory Services. “However, we are now finding that more companies are shifting their focus to raising capital and optimizing performance to prepare for future growth.”

Forty-nine percent of companies are now focused on optimizing capital, suggesting that executives are cleaning house and getting ready to grow in a low-growth environment. “Companies are ‘kicking the tires’ on potential acquisitions, and they have concluded that the inorganic growth they require will demand more preparatory work,” said Jeanneret. “While debt-to-capital ratios have remained stable over the last year, 31% of companies’ debt-to-capital ratios are expected to increase as companies take advantage of favorable debt markets to optimize their balance sheets for the future. With stabilized capital structures, companies are preparing for the next wave of investment.”

US companies have long indicated in the Barometer that credit is broadly available to them, and global credit is currently at an all-time high, but executives now report a growing willingness to add leverage to their balance sheets, which could imply growth in deal activity over the medium to long term.

Shareholder Activism Shaping Boardroom Agenda

In the US, shareholder activism has become nearly ubiquitous. This trend and pressure to reduce costs and put companies’ stockpiles of cash to work could trigger the next wave of M&A. “Companies are facing pressure to grow and create value – and true valuation models are returning. To be strategic, there needs to be more capital deployment and activists are watching this,” said Jeanneret. “Even companies that have not yet been subject to shareholder activism are preparing now for any future activity.”

In the survey, 96% of executives say issues have been elevated due to shareholder activism. Fifty- one percent of US boardrooms elevated cost reduction, 31% share buybacks, and 26% dividend payments. In addition, some executives have elevated more transformational tactics for consideration including 21% who selected divestments, 11% selected acquisitions and 10% selected spinoffs or IPOs.

Growing in a Slow Growth Environment

Companies and boards are pursuing parallel priorities, working to find the right balance between growth strategies and cost reduction. In striking this balance, US executives also report closer scrutiny on cost structures and operational efficiency is now the norm. The result of this is a model that could help drive M&A activity and cost synergies as companies seek out new growth opportunities.

“Divestments may be on the upswing as there is a particular interest from companies in shaking up product and service offerings, focusing less on core offerings and more on updating the product mix or finding the gaps in offerings,” said Jeanneret. “This focus on higher-risk organic growth strategies may indicate increased interest in inorganic growth as internal opportunities are fully exploited.”

Twenty-eight percent of executives also cite that looking ahead over the next 6 to 12 months; emerging markets continue to present some of the greatest risks to their business as they contract due to both political instability and slowing growth. However, plans to grow in emerging markets are not thwarted, as the survey shows 75% of US investment capital over the next year is expected to go to BRIC and non-BRIC emerging markets with the greater proportion of that total earmarked for India, China and Brazil.

The Future of Work

In the US specifically, there are several trends that are converging to shape business and acquisition strategies. When asked which trend could have the greatest impact over the next year, executives cited a trend they are calling “the future of work.” Sixty-four percent said that lack of skill, competition for talent, and changing employer–employee obligations will greatly affect business strategies. This trend is largely brought on by digital transformation – for example big data and cloud technologies — as well as global rebalancing due to the growing middle class.

In C-suites across the US, memories are long and dealmakers have been wary to pursue deals until they see evidence of a full-blown economic recovery. Executives are setting the stage for growth, driven by the uptick in economic confidence, the tapering of equity markets preparing interest rates to rise and bring valuations in, a moderating stock market, and relative stability in Washington DC.

“If we examine each of the three elements necessary for an active M&A environment – credit, cash and confidence – credit and cash have been prevalent for a while now, but it’s the confidence we’ve been lacking. There is no one single factor underpinning deal flow. Rather, dealmaking will be determined by the convergence of valuation gaps contracting, improved fundamentals, and economic confidence that will intensify the drive towards M&A. In our new post-crisis environment, a comeback in the deal markets may be protracted. But whenever it arrives, US corporates will be ready for it,” concluded Jeanneret.

UBS Private Banking Dismantles its Operations in Bahamas

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UBS desmantela sus operaciones de banca privada en Bahamas — Photo: Jerrye and Roy Klotz MD . UBS Private Banking Dismantles its Operations in Bahamas

As confirmed to Funds Society by UBS Private Banking sources, the bank plans to gradually close its private banking operations in the Bahamas, where it employs about 70 people, between now and the end of 2014. Part of this workforce has already been relocated to other positions within the bank.

According to the Bahamian press, which was the first to break the news last March, UBS will reduce its private banking activity in the Bahamas but will continue to focus on its Trust Department, which it plans to strengthen.

The decision to reduce its presence in Nassau, where it provided trust and wealth management services, comes after undertaking a thorough evaluation of the bank’s international destinations. “Based on economic feasibility considerations, the UBS group has decided to dismantle its subsidiary in the Bahamas, UBS (Bahamas) Limited,” the bank declared in a statement to The Bahama Journal.

The bank wished to clarify that “the decision will not affect UBS Trustees (Bahamas). The shutdown process shall be completed in late 2014 and will proceed in close collaboration with the Ministry of Financial Services of The Bahamas.”

It also confirms that UBS shall offer its clients the ability to transfer their assets to other UBS booking centers or to a service provider of the client’s choice.

“A scheme to assist affected employees has been set in motion, and a considerable number of them will be offered other positions and jobs within the UBS group,” UBS confirmed.

Asia’s E-Commerce Trends

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Tendencias del “E-Commerce” en Asia — Wikimedia CommonsPhoto: PD Photo.org. Asia's E-Commerce Trends

On a recent research trip, I went to Beijing, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Melbourne and spoke with Internet companies in industries as diverse as automotives, travel and real estate. I also met with several e-commerce companies with varying Internet penetration rates. As growth rates for new Internet users across parts of Asia level off, comparing these firms offered me an interesting glimpse into the potential opportunities and challenges facing the region’s newer Internet firms.

Most of Asia’s Internet companies still rely primarily on advertising revenue to make money. Frequently, such firms can also tap into subscription services whose pricing structure is usually a simple fixed payment regimen. Given the relatively low penetration rate of online channels in most everyday businesses, this is not a surprise. In this growing market, companies compete for online customers by expanding their sales forces to promote their brands. The productivity gain that their customers get from conducting their businesses online creates sufficient return on investment (ROI) to justify investment in IT capital like software and hardware. This trend has benefited Internet businesses in their early development.

But nowadays, we are seeing younger Internet companies modeling their businesses on performance-based methods, producing revenue only when a sale or a lead is generated. We are also seeing the use of new technologies that set them apart from conventional Internet players and could potentially become a disruptive force in the market as the technologies lower the cost of using Internet services and cater to smaller merchants, which may not be the core market segment for existing Internet firms.

In more developed markets, such as Japan and Australia, the focus of monetization has shifted from growing the volume of Internet users to increasing average pricing per user. This shift brings challenges to many incumbents’ business models. To achieve growth, firms in these markets need to raise prices. They need to know which customers are willing to pay for their products and services. Another challenge arises as increasingly sophisticated stakeholders, including advertising agencies and business owners, demand that Internet vendors demonstrate that page views or users’ time spent on the website actually translate to higher ROI. In real estate or automotive listing websites, for example, a higher conversion rate from online traffic to lead generation reduces costs incurred by real estate agents or auto dealers to sell a property or a car. Internet companies can add more value with differentiating services like market intelligence that help attract new users and increase the “stickiness” of existing users.

With more than 1 billion Internet users, Asia is already the world’s largest Internet market. But Internet penetration rates for Asia’s most developing countries are still over a decade behind the region’s more advanced economies. It will probably take many years for Internet markets in developing Asia to mature. Regional leaders need to continue investing in R&D capabilities because they will likely face challenges to their existing business models as markets evolve. In addition, the business environment they face will be different because of disruptive technologies like smartphones and 4G that were limited or non-existent a decade ago. Now is not the time for them to be complacent. Only the Internet companies that can adapt to new technologies and continue to demonstrate value should be able to survive this intensely competitive landscape over the long run.

The views and information discussed represent opinion and an assessment of market conditions at a specific point in time that are subject to change. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy and sell particular securities or markets in general. The subject matter contained herein has been derived from several sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of compilation. Matthews International Capital Management, LLC does not accept any liability for losses either direct or consequential caused by the use of this information. Investing in international and emerging markets may involve additional risks, such as social and political instability, market illiquidity, exchange-rate fluctuations, a high level of volatility and limited regulation. In addition, single-country funds may be subject to a higher degree of market risk than diversified funds because of concentration in a specific geographic location. Investing in small- and mid-size companies is more risky than investing in large companies, as they may be more volatile and less liquid than large companies. This document has not been reviewed or approved by any regulatory body.