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Invesco Expands Product Range with Eye Toward Inflation Protection and Income

As financial advisors continue to look for ways to diversify client portfolios to reach savings goals, Invesco has announced the launch of three new mutual funds – Invesco Global Infrastructure Fund, Invesco Strategic Income Fund and Invesco Strategic Real Return Fund.

“We are always looking for ways to leverage the depth and breadth of our investment management capabilities to meet client needs,” said Gary Wendler, Head of Product Development & Investment Measurement/Risk. “These funds give our clients additional tools and a fresh approach to build portfolios that seek to address two very important needs in light of the current and potentially future market backdrop.”

Invesco Global Infrastructure Fund is the newest addition to Invesco’s suite of alternative mutual funds that seeks to provide total return through growth of capital and current income. It may also provide investors with a hedge against potential inflation and an opportunity for portfolio diversification. The fund will invest in equity securities of companies with infrastructure assets in the US and abroad, including up to 20% in master limited partnerships, and be managed by the Invesco Real Estate team, which oversees approximately $60 billion in real assets (physical/tangible assets that have intrinsic value like real estate investment trusts and direct property).

The team is bolstered by its global presence with 18 offices in 12 different countries. With the Invesco Global Infrastructure Fund the management team will attempt to maximize predictability and consistency of investment returns and minimize risk through strict attention to portfolio design.

“Our comprehensive approach to stringent research and our global reach helps us identify investment value. We believe compelling long-term performance can be achieved by investing in infrastructure companies with highly visible cash flows, strong balance sheets and dependable demand characteristics,” said Joe Rodriguez, lead portfolio manager for Invesco Global Infrastructure Fund and Head of Global Real Estate Securities for Invesco Real Estate. “Our team’s investment focus has always been on utilizing local market expertise to best evaluate the cash flows derived from tangible, long-lived assets.”

Invesco Strategic Income Fund and Invesco Strategic Real Return Fund offer a new approach to the fixed income markets for those looking to potentially capture additional income or even growth. Both funds will draw from the experience of Invesco Fixed Income, which manages more than $230 billion in fixed income assets.

“Given the potential for rising interest rates, which can put more traditional bond strategies under pressure, now may be the time for investors to consider new tactics to generate income and provide growth in their portfolios,” said Rob Waldner, Head of Global Macro and Chief Strategist for Invesco Fixed Income and portfolio manager of the Invesco Strategic Income Fund.

Invesco Strategic Income Fund will look to provide current income, and secondarily long-term growth of capital, by investing primarily in US and foreign debt securities, including emerging market debt securities. The team will broadly pursue income across such global fixed income sectors as high yield and investment grade credit, emerging markets, bank loans, and foreign and US government securities.

The management team will use a top-down analysis of macroeconomic trends along with bottom-up fundamental analysis of market sub-sectors and individual issuers from more than 70 specialized research analysts to identify investable information advantages. The dynamic balancing of the top-down and bottom-up investment views is designed to help the team identify and take advantage of opportunities in any market environment or geographic region. The investment process is underpinned by a strategic allocation across fixed income markets that allows for tactical adjustments in an effort to capitalize on relative value and forward looking expectations.

Invesco Strategic Real Return Fund will seek to mitigate the effects of unanticipated inflation and to provide current income. The fund will employ a diversified approach to managing inflation risk by using different fixed income asset classes, including Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), high yield bonds and bank loans, which have the potential to perform well in inflationary environments while still offering competitive yield. The management team will use a top-down analysis of macroeconomic trends along with bottom-up fundamental analysis of market sub-sectors and individual issuers from more than 70 specialized research analysts to identify investable information advantages throughout a market cycle. A risk-parity approach will be employed to determine initial asset allocation of fund holdings and then input from Invesco Fixed Income’s Investment Strategy Team will be used for ongoing allocation decisions.

“With yields so low and credit spreads tight, we believe some investors are going to have to broaden their search for opportunities in the bond markets,” Mr. Waldner said. “We are transitioning to a new investing environment and it will be important to be prepared with a well-defined macro investment strategy. These new products offer a more active approach to asset allocation and security selection, which we believe benefits investors as opportunities shift between market/sector rotation and security selection.”

Bank Leumi USA Appoints Mason C. Salit as Head of U.S. Private Banking

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Bank Leumi USA has appointed Mason C. Salit as the Head of U.S. Private Banking.

Mason will lead the private banking team through Bank Leumi USA’s personalized and client-focused approach to ensure that the financial objectives of clients are met through a variety of innovative products and services.

Mason has more than 25 years of experience in the global financial services industry. Prior to joining Bank Leumi USA, he served as the Wealth Market Leader at TD Wealth. Mason was the Head of International Private Banking at HSBC Private Bank in New York and also spent 17 years with Citigroup in various wealth management roles.

Mason received his undergraduate degree from the State University of New York at Binghamton and his MBA from New York University’s Stern School of Business.

Mason added, “Our focus is on holistic wealth management and success is achieved when we work with our clients as strategic partners. It is about providing the best solutions for our clients, which is why we serve families generation after generation.”

Bank Leumi USA, the largest subsidiary of the Leumi Group, has operated in the U.S. for more than fifty five years. It is an FDIC-insured, full-service commercial bank providing financial services to middle market firms and international businesses through offices in New York, California, Florida, Illinois and a representative office in Israel. Bank Leumi USA offers U.S. and international private banking services as well as a full range of securities and insurance products through its brokerage subsidiary, Leumi Investment Services Inc. (LISI). (LISI) is a FINRA and SIPC member, and investments purchased through LISI are not FDIC insured, have no bank guarantee, and may lose value.

A.M. Best Opens Its Mexico City Office

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A.M. Best sigue creciendo en América Latina con la apertura de una oficina en México — Photo: Alejandro Islas Photograph AC. A.M. Best Opens Its Mexico City Office

A.M. Best has opened its office in Mexico City located in the financial district at Paseo de la Reforma 412, and it is pleased to welcome its key staff that will lead this office forward.

This week, Managing Director Andrea Keenan welcomed Yazmin Galindo, Associate Director of Operations and Compliance, and Jesus Palacios, Associate Director of Market Development to round out the office leadership. They join Alfonso Novelo Gomez, Director of Analysis, who joined the company in March.

Novelo comes to AM Best with over fifteen years of insurance industry experience throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, including with the insurance regulator Comision Nacional de Seguros y Fianzas (CNSF), BBVA Seguros and the insurance ratings division of S&P in Mexico. “Alfonso brings a strong understanding of the Mexico and Latin American insurance markets, as well as the analysis of insurer financial strength, and we are very happy to have him leading our rating analytics in the region,“ said Keenan.

A.M. Best will be in attendance at this year’s AMIS Annual Seminar, with a team including Andrea, Keenan, Alfonso Novelo, and Jesus Palacios, along with Matthew Mosher, Senior Vice President of Rating Services, who is responsible for A.M. Best’s rating services globally.

Industry Veteran Franklyn Chang Joins Investcorp’s Distribution Team

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Investcorp has announced that industry veteran Franklyn Chang has joined the firm as a Managing Director.

Mr. Chang joins Investcorp with nearly 20 years of experience in institutional sales, placements and distribution of alternative investments. Prior to joining Investcorp, Mr. Chang was responsible for global distribution of alternative investment funds at Eaton Partners, LLC, including hedge funds, private equity, real estate and infrastructure funds. During his eight year tenure at Eaton Partners, Mr. Chang served as both Partner for US Distribution and Managing Partner for the European and Middle East Distribution. Mr. Chang was involved in successfully placing over $12 billion in limited partner assets for the firm.

In his new role with Investcorp, Mr. Chang’s primary responsibility will be to help grow Investcorp’s Hedge Fund Group’s assets under management through strategic and targeted business development efforts.

“We are very pleased to welcome a person of Franklyn’s experience and caliber to our team,” said Mr. Lionel Erdely, Head and Chief Investment Officer of the Hedge Funds Group at Investcorp. “His wide ranging experience and capabilities within the alternative investment industry will allow us to expand our product offerings to further meet our clients’ needs as we significantly grow our hedge funds platform.”

Henderson Launches SICAV Version of Global Equity Income Fund

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Capitalizing on its global equity income strength, Henderson Global Investors will launch the Luxembourg-domiciled Henderson Horizon Global Equity Income Fund (SICAV) on May 6, 2014. The fund will mirror the existing £680 million*(€817 million or US$1,126 million) Henderson Global Equity Income Fund (OEIC) managed by Andrew Jones and Ben Lofthouse.

Alex Crooke, head of global equity income, will manage the fund alongside Andrew Jones and Ben Lofthouse. Alex has over 23 years’ investment experience and is a manager on Henderson’s US domiciled Global Equity Income mutual fund.

Henderson’s 11-strong global equity income team cover all the major regions of the world and manage more than £8 billion** (€9.6 billion or US$13.25 billion) in equity income mandates.

Available in Euro and US dollar share classes, the Henderson Horizon Global Equity Income Fund aims to provide an above-benchmark dividend yield with the potential for capital growth. It will invest primarily in equities throughout the world and will typically hold between 50 – 80 holdings.

Greg Jones, head of EMEA retail and Latin America, says, “With interest rates at rock bottom levels on an international scale, never has there been a greater demand for income from our client base. In recent years, the equity market has become an increasingly important hunting ground for yield. We don’t see this trend abating.”

Alex Crooke adds, “As reported in the first edition of the Henderson Global Dividend Index in February, dividends paid globally reached more than one trillion dollars last year, up 43% since 2009. Increasingly, companies across the world are recognising the need to pay dividends. A global approach to income investing brings real diversification benefits, access to quarterly income and capital growth over the long term.”

“We have a closely integrated global equity income team that is well suited to bottom-up stock-picking and searching for undervalued, unloved and underappreciated companies. The SICAV will be a real benefit to investors that prefer the offshore equivalent.”

Since Inception (1^st June 2012) to 31 March 2014 the Henderson Global Equity Income Fund (OEIC) returned 41.7%, outperforming the MSCI World Index which returned 33.1% over the same period.* Past performance is no indicator of future performance.

About the Portfolio Managers

Andrew Jones is a member of the Henderson Global Equity Income Team. Andrew has managed the team’s Global Equity Income OEIC with Ben Lofthouse since May 2012, and is also the fund manager of the Henderson Global Care UK Income Fund and a number of other institutional mandates. He joined Henderson in 2005 from Invesco Asset Management where he spent 10 years as a UK Equities fund manager, and was the co-manager of the Invesco Perpetual Income and Growth Fund for six years. Andrew graduated from Queens’ College, Cambridge with a BA (Hons) in Economics and holds the Securities Institute Diploma.

Ben Lofthouse is a member of the Henderson Global Equity Income Team. Ben has managed the team’s Global Equity Income OIEC with Andrew Jones since May 2012, and has managed the Henderson International Income Trust plc since its launch in April 2011. In addition to fund management duties, Ben covers the Support Services and Food & Beverages sectors for Henderson’s Equity Department. He joined Henderson Global Investors in 2004 as an Investment Analyst and Assistant Fund Manager having previously trained as a Chartered Accountant with PricewaterhouseCoopers in their Banking and Capital Markets division. He also worked in the PricewaterhouseCoopers Business Recovery Services team. Ben graduated from Exeter University with a BA (Hons) in Business Economics. He is also a CFA Charterholder.

Alex Crooke joined Henderson Global Investors in 1994 as an Associate Director of Investment Trusts after starting his investment career as a US investment analyst with Equitable Life Assurance Society in 1990. In mid 1994 he was recruited by Henderson, to co-manage the UK assets of Witan Investment Trust. His role broadened out within Henderson to become fund manager for a number of income based Unit Trusts and Investment Trusts. Alex has managed The Bankers Investment Trust PLC since 2003 and Henderson High Income Trust PLC since 1997. He is also the co-manager of Henderson’s US domiciled mutual fund, Global Equity Income and lead manager of Henderson Dividend and Income Builder. In 2013 he was appointed Head of Global Equity Income, bringing together all the equity focussed income teams within Henderson. Alex graduated from Manchester University with a BSc (Hons) Physics with Astrophysics and is an Associate Member of the Society of Investment Professionals (ASIP).

*As at 31 March 2014 (source: Morningstar)

**As at 31 March 2014

Brazil and Santorini Emerge as Popular Destinations for Summer 2014

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American Express Travel recently surveyed a group of its experts – nearly 300 travel counselors – to get the scoop on what is trending with their customers for this upcoming summer season (travel between June 1 and August 31). When looking at where customers are heading to this summer, based on bookings made at amextravel.com and through its travel counselors, most travelers will continue to flock toward popular destinations. The top ten include London, Paris, Rome, Orlando, New York, Kahului (HI), San Francisco, Cancun, Los Angeles and Honolulu.

While cities like London and Orlando are longtime favorites, bookings at destinations with the greatest year-over-year growth indicate a more adventurous streak amongst this year’s travelers. From a top sporting destination to national parks to an island retreat, the top growing summer destinations for 2014 include Brazil (Manaus, Recife, Salvador, Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo); Santorini; Hilton Head, SC; Grand Junction, CO; Milan and Bucharest.

Nearly half (45%) said their summer travel bookings, relative to their bookings from last year, have increased. This is despite the fact that 67% percent said the cost of travel is up when compared to 2013.

Travel counselors cited rising costs in key travel categories – airfare and hotel stays – as main reasons for the increase in the cost of summer travel. However, 35% indicated costs are up because customers are choosing to spend more on amenities such as excursions and other activities. When further asked about what is most important to travelers when booking summer travel, the findings show customers are prioritizing perks over price:

33% said customers want added value such as upgrades
26% responded the destination is most important to customers
20% indicated budget as their customers’ top consideration

“After one of the coldest and snowiest winters on record, it’s no surprise people are itching to get away this summer,” says Laura Fink, vice president of American Express Travel. “That long, cold winter has fostered a demand for travel where customers are placing a premium on perks and amenities to upgrade their trip experiences despite rising costs.”

The survey also indicated the average duration of summer trips are 10 days. When asked what type of experience most customer are looking for, 43% responded relaxing experiences such as an all-inclusive beach vacation while another 34% said customers are looking to immerse themselves in the culture of the destination. Cruise vacations remain popular as well; nearly one third of the travel counselors surveyed said clients are booking cruises for the summer.

While the majority of travel counselors (81%) are planning vacations for clients and their immediate family, 35% report curating trips for multi-generational families and 29% are planning experiences for their clients traveling with friends or a significant other.

Why I Like the Tech Sector

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¿Por qué me gusta el sector tecnológico? — Photo: James Swanson, Chief Investment Strategist at MFS Investments. Why I Like the Tech Sector

Chief Investment Strategist, James Swanson, highlights how the technology sector is in better shape today than in the late 1990s.

Click on the video to find out his reasons.

Michael Hasenstab and Bill Gross, among the Speakers in the 26th Annual Morningstar Investment Conference

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Foto: BertKaufmann, Flickr, Creative Commons. La gestora de la estadounidense Northern Trust registra en España su sicav irlandesa

Morningstar is hosting its 26th annual investment conference for financial advisors Wednesday, June 18 through Friday, June 20, at McCormick Place Convention Center in Chicago.

This year’s keynote speakers are Michael Hasenstab, executive vice president and chief investment officer for global bonds for Franklin Templeton Investments, who will open the conference on June 18; Bill Gross, founder, managing director, and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO, who will address attendees on June 19; and Cliff Asness, founder, managing principal, and chief investment officer of AQR Capital Management, who will speak on June 20. Michael Falk, partner, Focus Consulting Group, and chief strategist and partner for a global macro hedge fund, will speak at the closing general session on June 20.

“This year’s conference features an all-star lineup of managers and industry experts,” Scott Burns, director of global manager research for Morningstar, said. “We’ve selected many of the fund industry’s most prominent thinkers to share their views on navigating today’s market environment. The dialogue over these few days in June will cover superior stock selection, global investing, emerging markets, unconstrained fixed-income strategies, the latest thinking on ‘strategic’ or ‘smart’ beta, up-and-coming managers, dividend investing, and more. Advisors will come away equipped with new insights and resources to better serve their clients and help them meet their investing goals.”

General Sessions:

Panelists Will Danoff, portfolio manager, Fidelity Asset Management; Dennis Lynch, head of growth investing, Morgan Stanley Investment Management (and winner of Morningstar’s 2013 U.S. Domestic-Stock Fund Manager of the Year award); and Chris Davis, co-portfolio manager, Davis Large Cap portfolios, Davis Funds, will share their take on what contributes to a robust business model and how they uncover early signs of structural shifts to better pick stocks.
David Herro, portfolio manager, The Oakmark Funds; Sarah Ketterer, chief executive officer and portfolio manager, Causeway Capital Management; and Rob Lovelace, president, Capital Research and Management Company, will discuss prospects and pitfalls in international investing.
Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation, GMO, LLC, and Dennis Stattman, managing director and portfolio manager, Blackrock, will shed light on the most compelling investing opportunities amidst a global backdrop.

June 18 Research Roundtable

Morningstar’s Michael Holt, global head of equity and corporate credit research; Bob Johnson, director of economic analysis; Russ Kinnel, director of manager research and editor of Morningstar® FundInvestor^SM; and Daniel Needham, global chief investment officer, Morningstar Investment Management, a unit of Morningstar, Inc., will hold a research roundtable, moderated by Burns.

June 19 Breakout Sessions

Masha Gordon, executive vice president, PIMCO; Justin Leverenz, portfolio manager, OppenheimerFunds; and David Rolley, vice president and portfolio manager, Loomis, Sayles & Company, will debate opportunities and pitfalls in emerging-markets assets.
Bill Eigen, managing director, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; Mark Egan, chief investment officer, managing director, and portfolio manager, Reams Asset Management; and Mohit Mittal, managing director and portfolio manager, PIMCO, will examine unconstrained bond strategies.
Rick Ferri, founder, Portfolio Solutions, and Chris Brightman, managing director and head of investment management, Research Affiliates, will explore the pros and cons of the proliferation of new indexes.
Kinnel will moderate a discussion with Morningstar analystsMichael Rawson, Katie Reichart, and Michelle Ward about Morningstar’s manager research process and some of their favorite funds.
Up-and-coming managersMarian Kessler, analyst and portfolio manager, Becker Capital Management; Jan Dehn, head of research, Ashmore Investment Management; and Bernard Horn, president and portfolio manager, Polaris Capital Management, LLC, will share their investment approaches.
John Rogers, founder, chairman, chief executive officer, and chief investment officer, Ariel Investments; Stephen Yacktman, senior vice president, chief investment officer, and portfolio manager, Yacktman Asset Management; and Staley Cates, president and chief investment officer, Southeastern Asset Management, Inc., will discuss how a focus on economic moats can benefit investment returns.
David Blanchett, head of retirement research, Morningstar Investment Management; Michael Kitces, partner and director of research, Pinnacle Advisory Group; and Allan Roth, founder, financial planner, and writer, Wealth Logic, LLC, will dive into the latest research on hot-button issues in retirement investing.
Brooks Friederich, director of fund strategist portfolios, Envestnet Asset Management, and Alicia Nisberg, advisory platform product manager, Commonwealth Financial Network, will cover best practices for selecting ETF managed portfolio strategies.

June 20 Breakout Sessions

Josh Peters, director of equity-income strategy, Morningstar; Thomas Huber, portfolio manager, T. Rowe Price; and Don Kilbride, portfolio manager, Wellington Management, will spotlight opportunities to invest in dividends with downside protection.
Joel Greenblatt, managing principal and co-chief investment officer, Gotham Asset Management, and Michael Aronstein, portfolio manager, Marketfield Asset Management, will discuss how to succeed in long-short fund management.
Robert Amodeo, head of municipals, Western Asset Management; Joe Deane, executive vice president and head of municipal-bond portfolio management, PIMCO; and John Miller, co-head of fixed income, Nuveen Asset Management, will delve into the closed-end municipal-bond fund landscape.
Michael Buchanan, head of credit, Western Asset Management Company; Scott Page, vice president, director, and portfolio manager, Eaton Vance Management; and Eric Mollenhauer, portfolio manager, Fidelity Asset Management, will explore opportunities and potential land mines among bank-loan funds.

Preconference Workshops

All registered attendees to the Morningstar Investment Conference may attend one of two complimentary preconference workshops—on alternative investments or asset allocation—at McCormick Place from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. Central Time on June 18. Lunch is provided. Registered conference attendees will receive email instructions to sign up for the workshop of their choice.

More information about the Morningstar Investment Conference, including the full agenda, hotel accommodations, attendee registration, and continuing-education credits, is available at this link. Conference updates are also available on Twitter at this link or through the conference hashtag: #MICUS.

Norges Bank IM Selects Citi as Sole Global Custodian Provider for $850 Billion in Assets

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Citi has been awarded a mandate from Norges Bank Investment Management (“NBIM”), the organization responsible for managing the Government Pension Fund Global, to provide global custody and securities lending services to support NBIM’s $850 billion investment portfolio globally. The mandate is believed to be one of the largest of its kind in the industry.

“It’s a great privilege to have been selected by Norges Bank Investment Management to provide these services,” said Okan Pekin, Global Head of Investor Services, Citi. ‘’By having a global presence combined with in-depth, local expertise, our offering is well positioned to support Norges Bank Investment Management’s mission and growth objectives. This appointment highlights our ability to serve the needs of a leading investment manager on a multi-jurisdictional basis and I would like to thank all of the Citi team members who worked diligently to bring this relationship to fruition.”

With investor service capabilities in 95 countries and the world’s largest proprietary custody network in over 60 markets, Citi leverages its global footprint and sophisticated fund services platform to offer consistent, scalable and flexible solutions enabling global fund managers to extend their reach and business.

”We have carried out a detailed evaluation. Citi has demonstrated a commitment to the custody business through their proprietary sub custodian network and investment in technology, enabling them to deliver custody services in an integrated, efficient and transparent manner,” said Age Bakker, Chief Operating Officer, Norges Bank Investment Management.

Citi Investor Services provides fund managers with access to an end-to-end set of flexible investment solutions with leading capabilities in four distinct areas: Prime Finance and Agency Securities Lending; Futures, OTC Clearing and Collateral Management; Global Custody Services and Global Fund Services.

Balancing Act

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Un acto de equilibrio — Foto cedida. Balancing Act

The peak of the liquidity-driven market and the rebalancing of global growth will have different effects across developed and emerging markets.

At the close of 2013, investors were perhaps becoming a little complacent about the equity market. The seductive language of all-time highs, instant profits and long-term growth continued to drive flows even as the Federal Reserve (Fed) made it clear it was intent on turning off the taps.

While the crisis years were marked by a coordinated response from the major central banks to stem systemic risks, the journey back from that remarkable place is likely to be one that authorities increasingly take on their own. The Fed’s taper marks the peak of the liquidity-driven market environment and the start of a slow normalisation, but this will not be followed uniformly. Economies face their own unique blend of political, fiscal and monetary challenges which must be overcome to reach the next phase of the economic cycle.

Episodic volatility

Investors be warned: although economic confidence has helped tame volatility, the abundance of liquidity and a diminishing fear of systemic risks have also helped subdue market fluctuations. On the last few occasions when market volatility was this low, namely the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, equity bull markets were being driven by rapid growth and low inflation – we aren’t there yet.

As a result, episodic market flare-ups are to be expected as the return to fundamental-based investing occurs. The recent turbulence in emerging markets (EM) has been attributed to numerous causes, but has undoubtedly been complicated by the lid being lifted on the underlying fragilities of some individual EM countries.

Global growth broadens

The actions and communications from the major central banks will continue to determine how smooth the normalisation process is. Global growth is improving and broadening in the developed world, and we believe this will continue to be a major theme for 2014. For markets to progress, investors must be adequately convinced that policies are being correctly tailored to the strength of economic fundamentals. Each major economy is now at a different point on the curve and will have to act independently from its peers, adopting a certain degree of needful self-interest while not destabilising the delicate balance in global relationships.

Having pursued aggressive and early monetary expansion, the UK and US have seemingly reaped first-mover advantages from their consumption-led recoveries, but must now be careful to manage interest rate expectations. The unexpected vigour of the UK economy has taken many by surprise: the Bank of England (BoE) now anticipates growth of 3.4 per cent this year, the fastest pace in the developed world, and BoE Governor Mark Carney has been forced to row back from linking forward guidance specifically to the jobless rate. We believe it is a close-run call between the US and the UK as to which will tighten monetary policy first.

Risk of policy error

In contrast, Japan is a relative latecomer to quantitative easing (QE), and is only beginning to reap the payoffs from aggressive monetary stimulus – a weakening yen and inflation rising above one per cent for the first time since 2008. It has recently revamped two of its loan support programmes to boost corporate and household borrowing, and we suspect that stronger monetary stimulus is being kept in reserve for times of greater need.

Further afield, the European Central Bank has done an admirable job of damping the flames of contagion from Europe’s financial system, but its hand may be forced in deploying its own form of QE, if falling inflation threatens to derail its recovery.

Given the very different economic challenges that these central banks face, the risks of policy error are undoubtedly increasing. Authorities will need to employ all their skills in managing and communicating change to market participants, whether removing stimulus or choosing to add more liquidity. Thus far, the Fed has largely convinced investors to disassociate incremental tapering from interest rate rises, but if growth surprises to the upside investors could become fearful about policy tightening occurring earlier than 2015.

Diverging fortunes

While improving growth prospects for the developed markets are a key theme for 2014, this also plays into a second leitmotif for the year ahead: a divergence in the fortunes of the G10 versus EM. The growth gap has been falling since 2009 and is expected to narrow further this year. Structural EM expansion cannot continue indefinitely, and in contrast to developed market policymakers, their EM counterparts do not have significant options for regenerating growth.

The most fragile countries must contend with current account deficits that are both negative and widening. The implication for EM equities, which have witnessed extraordinary flows in the post-crisis grab for yield, is that investors may cast a heavy eye on fundamentals and take their money elsewhere. While some of the risks are arguably priced in, potential currency fluctuations must be factored into any investment decision.

Balancing the risks

The risk of volatility flare-ups, the fragmented approach of central bank policy responses, and potentially dormant systemic risks mean that the road back to ‘normality’ may be bumpy: we think it makes sense to keep some firepower in reserve in the form of cash. We remain vigilant to potentially higher market volatility providing opportunities for us to tactically add new positions or increase existing ones on favourable relative valuations.

On a broader view, equities remain our favoured asset class as improving economic prospects and, by implication, policy tightening lead to a slow but bearish re-pricing of government bonds. The caveat remains that equity valuations have risen, placing a greater requirement on an earnings recovery, so we can probably expect lower returns this year than 2013.

After five years of central bank policy experiments, the return to a more balanced outlook for global growth and a more ‘normal’ market environment is unlikely to be straightforward.

Paul O’Connor is Co-Head of Multi Asset within the Henderson Multi-Asset team.