The Journalof Portfolio Management has selected “Dimensions of Popularity” by Roger Ibbotson and Thomas Idzorek for its prestigious 40th anniversary issue. Ibbotson, Ph.D., is founder of Ibbotson Associates, chairman and chief investment officer of Zebra Capital Management, and professor of finance at the Yale School of Management, and Idzorek, CFA, is head of the Morningstar Investment Management group, a unit of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar acquired Ibbotson Associates in 2006.
“Investors have long viewed the world through the risk-reward paradigm. They recognized that with greater risk comes greater return. This holds true when examining asset class performance—stocks are riskier than bonds and, on average over time, produce higher returns; small capitalization stocks are more volatile than large capitalization stocks, but outperform in the long run,” Idzorek said. “At the individual security level, however, this truism of investing—that with more risk comes more return—isn’t supported by historical data. The risk-reward paradigm also doesn’t explain many of the other premiums and anomalies we see in the market.”
In “Dimensions of Popularity,” Ibbotson and Idzorek identify the most common market premiums and anomalies, such as:
Small cap—Smaller capitalization stocks outperform larger capitalization stocks
Valuation—Value companies beat growth companies
Liquidity—Less liquid stocks best those with more liquidity
Momentum—Stocks trending up will continue to trend up
Because the risk-return framework does not explain all these premiums and anomalies seen in the market, the researchers propose the unifying “theory of popularity.” They explain that the most common market premiums and anomalies are associated with a stock’s popularity or unpopularity. For example, if investors “vote with their dollars,” small cap companies have gotten fewer votes. Value companies commonly have something wrong with them, which makes them unpopular.
If an asset has characteristics that investors really dislike, such as low liquidity, little name recognition, or high volatility, its price will be lower and therefore its expected future returns will be higher, all other things being equal. According to the theory of popularity, if an investor were to rank stocks by popularity, he or she could buy a basket of unpopular stocks and systematically rebalance as the stocks become more popular by buying a new portfolio of relatively less popular stocks. As some of the stocks in the portfolio become more popular over time, they become more valuable and the investor will see appreciation.
Ibbotson and Idzorek test this theory by sorting the universe of stocks by popularity, as defined by share turnover, and dividing them into quartiles each year from 1972 through 2013. They find that stocks in the lowest quartile of share turnover—the least popular stocks—outperformed the highest quartile by more than 7 percentage points per year over the period studied.
“Risk has become a catch-all for all of the attributes that investors do not like, but riskiness does not explain all the anomalies we see in the market. Value premiums are a perfect example. Stocks with low market-to-book ratios or low price-earnings ratios are not necessarily more volatile or less liquid, but we know that over time value stocks beat growth stocks. We need a new model for explaining investment performance that goes beyond risk and return. Popularity may be a better lens through which to view investment behavior,” Ibbotson said. “Many of the well-known market premiums are associated with unpopular stocks. Unpopular stocks tend to be smaller, less liquid, and perceived as lacking growth potential. These stocks, with their low relative prices, may offer investors better future performance as they move along the spectrum toward popularity.”
Family Office Exchange (FOX), a global membership organization of private family enterprises, their family offices, and key advisors, bestowed the FOX Founders Award on four family office industry pioneers at the 25th Anniversary FOX Forum in Chicago on October 29, 2014.
The honorees were Christine K. Galloway, President and CEO of Okabena Company, Dirk Jungé, Chairman of Pitcairn, Patricia M. Soldano, Chairman – Western Region at GenSpring Family Offices, and Loraine Tsavaris, Managing Director at Rockefeller & Company.
In presenting the awards, Sara Hamilton, Founder and CEO of FOX, commented, “Each of these individuals is the epitome of our best industry leaders, but in very unique ways. They were all pioneers in changing the wealth management industry to better serve the ultra-wealthy client. ”
The FOX Founders Award has only been presented once before– in 2009 to James E. Hughes, Jr., at the 20th Anniversary FOX Fall Forum.
Chris Galloway has worked for the Okabena Company, a single family office in Minneapolis, for 21 years. Retiring at the end of the year, she says, “Nothing is more meaningful than my role as ‘trusted Advisor’ to multiple generations of family members.”
Dirk Jungé, a fourth generation Pitcairn family member, is an outstanding example of a family leader who has served as a family steward for over 40 years. There is an old saying: “If you don’t create change, change will create you.” Dirk understands the need for innovation, coupled with his commitment to the time-tested principles that create family success, characterize his leadership style and underlie the business model of the 90-year old family office.
Pat Soldano has worked tirelessly for the past 20 years campaigning for elimination of the death tax based on her experiencing the devastating impact of estate taxes on families in her advisory practice. She founded The Policy and Taxation Group to educate lawmakers on the issues and impact of estate taxes on families.
The final recipient, Loraine Tsavaris, has been an advisor to families and to aspiring wealth advisors for more than 40 years. A strong supporter of FOX conducted research, she participated in the first FOX Thought Leaders Summit in 2004 about Conflicts of Interest and in every Thought Leaders Summit since.
Evercore Partners has announced that it completed on October 31, 2014 the acquisition of the ISI International Strategy & Investment and the remainder of its legacy Institutional Equities business.
The acquisition positions Evercore as an elite and scaled provider of non-proprietary capital markets advice and execution, broadening Evercore’s Investment Banking business and expanding its growth opportunities. The business, Evercore ISI, will initially provide macro research, as well as fundamental research coverage of more than 600 companies across 12 industries, or approximately 60% of the combined market cap of the S&P 500. Evercore ISI will serve more than 1,500 institutional investors globally, including the largest asset managers and fund complexes in the world.
“We are excited to announce the closing of the ISI transaction, moving us one step closer to our goal of creating the most elite independent investment banking advisory firm in the world,” said Ralph Schlosstein, President and Chief Executive Officer. “While it is still early days, client feedback to date affirms our expectation that Evercore ISI will have a positive effect on the growth rate of our overall Investment Banking business and that the Equities business will be an attractive business in its own right. Since the announcement of the acquisition in August, ISI has achieved a #5 ranking for its research product from Institutional Investor, and the firm has had record revenues in September and October, reflecting the support for this transaction from institutional investors globally. We are excited to welcome the entire ISI team to Evercore.”
“This step creates a broader and more effective banking firm because it provides Evercore with premier skills in all aspects of equities,” said Roger Altman, Executive Chairman. “I look forward eagerly to working with our new ISI colleagues.”
“Our clients’ support for this transaction has been extremely positive,” said Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI’s Chairman. “The combination of talent from the ISI and Evercore Equities businesses has created a powerhouse in research and distribution and we look forward to continuing to serve our expanded client network with the highest quality independent research, analysis and advice.”
Wikimedia CommonsGlen Finegan. Henderson nombra a Glen Finegan director de Renta Variable de Mercados Emergentes
Henderson Global Investors has hired Glen Finegan as Head of Emerging Market Equities. He will join the Henderson team on 5 January 2015.
Glen will report to Graham Kitchen, Head of Equities, and will have responsibility for managing the £1bn (€1.26bn / US$1.73bn) global emerging markets’ equities’ (GEM) franchise based in the UK.
Most recently Glen was a senior portfolio manager at First State Stewart covering GEM all cap strategies. He managed US$3bn as lead manager and was co-lead on US$10bn. Before joining First State Stewart in 2001 he was a geophysicist within the oil and gas industry.
In addition, as part of the wider review of the emerging markets business, Chris Palmer will leave Henderson. Chris joined during the Gartmore acquisition in 2011 and served as Director of Emerging Market Equities.
Wikimedia CommonsFoto: Mattbuck. deVere Group lanza su división de Inversión Estratégica, que liderará Tom Elliott
deVere Group announced the launch of deVere Investment Strategy that will be headed by Tom Elliott, a former Executive Director at JP Morgan Asset Management, who has 25 years experience in the financial sector and was appointed deVere Group´s International Investment Strategies in 2013.
The independent financial advisory organizations, which has a growing presence across America, has officially introduced its new Investment Strategy division. deVere Group, has 80,000 clients globally and more than $10bn under advice and management.
The founder and chief executive of deVere Group, Nigel Green, comments: “We’re thrilled to announce the introduction of deVere Investment Strategy, a free service that aims to help investors better understand the economic, political and social factors that drive capital markets, and which in turn influence returns on portfolios.
“This pioneering service, which offers a comprehensive view of global economies, regular updates on current stock markets and fixed income trends, in-depth analysis and detailed outlooks from Tom Elliott, one of the best-known and experienced experts in his field, is unlike any other in our sector.
“We’re confident that deVere Investment Strategy will be a powerful tool in helping our clients make informed investment decisions”.
He continues: “The launch of deVere Investment Strategy underscores our commitment to using our resources to continually lead and shape the industry and is further evidence of our laser-like dedication to helping clients hit their important goals through intelligent insights.”
For his part, Mr Elliott comments: “After months of strategic planning, research and development, I’m incredibly excited about the introduction of this trailblazing service that requires no fees or logins and that I hope will add real value to investors.
“An informed investor is a smarter investor and as such I look forward to delivering timely and relevant commentaries.” “It’s a privilege to be able to be working directly with our clients and helping them to reach and hopefully exceed their financial objectives by providing a holistic, bespoke approach to investment advice.”
Is the Euro crisis over? What if China slows down? Do liquidity premium exist?
“The future is like a corridor into which we can see only by the light coming from behind.” This quote sums up the hazardous nature of the exercise to try and tell what the future will bring, certainly with respect to the world economy and asset returns. As stated by Robeco in a recently published report on this matter, all we have to go by is what we have seen in the past. So, the outlook2015-2019 presented by Robeco in this video is as much a story about the past, as it is for the future: Robeco assumes that the long-term returns that we have seen in the past will – under normal circumstances – be a good guideline for the future. Interestingly, the further we try to look into the future, decades out, the more we tend to assume that the returns we have seen over the past hundred years will be more or less repeated. The shorter the outlook –and with short in this context Robeco refers to the five-year outlook being presented here– the more emphasis will be put on recent history.
A fair question is why it should be expected to see similar long-term, steady-state returns, even though the past hundred years can in no way be compared to the hundred to come. The simple answer, according to Robeco, is that the past hundred years have seen enough turmoil and volatility to be considered a good sample of possible hurdles that we will face in the next hundred years: wars, (hyper) inflation, natural disasters, booms, busts and financial crises – the world has had our share of turbulence. Yet underlying all this is Robeco’s conviction, which stems from their belief in the ingenuity of human beings, that we will realize equivalent returns. Robeco believes that mankind will continue to overcome complex and threatening situations. They trust that the drive of innovation and productivity gains will persist. Certainly, there will be setbacks as there have been in the past, but generally Robeco believes that growth, and with it returns on financial assets, will continue more or less as before.
You may access an Executive Summary of this report through the pdf file attached, and you may download the full report through this link.
. Bank J. Safra Sarasin anuncia la renuncia de Eric Sarasin por investigaciones en curso
Over recent days, the media has widely reported the ramifications of legal investigations initiated in Germany against a number of people, including Mr. Eric Sarasin. Investigations on behalf of German prosecutors have been carried out in Switzerland, said Bank J. Safra Sarasin in an statement.
“Eric Sarasin categorically denies the accusations made against him and wants to be free and available to organise his own defence. He also wants to ensure that the personal implications for him do not tarnish the image and reputation of the Bank he has served”.
“Eric Sarasin has therefore resigned from his position as Deputy CEO and member of the Bank’s Executive Committee. The Bank has accepted his resignation with regret and thanks Mr. Eric Sarasin for all his efforts and achievements over many years of collaboration”, says the entity.
Foto: JoiseyShowaa, Flickr, Creative Commons. Global X Funds lanza dos nuevos ETFs basados en índices de J.P. Morgan
Global X Funds, the New York-based provider of exchange-traded funds, has launched two ETFs based on indexes developed by J.P. Morgan Corporate and Investment Bank: the Global X | JPMorgan Efficiente Index ETF and the Global X | JPMorgan US Sector Rotator Index ETF.
These new ETFs from Global X enter the market at a time when investors are increasingly interested in products linked to strategies that are designed to help manage against downside risks.
The Global X | JPMorgan Efficiente Index ETF aims to provide investors with superior risk- adjusted returns. The fund rebalances monthly, shifting exposures across five asset classes and thirteen sub-classes, while targeting an annual realized volatility of 10%. The strategy is designed as an alternative investment, seeking to generate low volatility returns across a variety of market conditions.
The Global X | JPMorgan US Sector Rotator Index ETF seeks to provide investors with the ability to participate in market upside while limiting downside exposure. On a monthly basis, the fund will select up to five US sector ETFs which have demonstrated positive recent performance from a pool of 10 possible sectors. The fund may shift up to 100% of its exposure to 1-3 year US treasuries to defend against declining or volatile markets.
“We regularly hear about the need for investment vehicles that manage downside risk”, said Greg King, Executive Vice-President at Global X Funds. “With these new funds, we can now offer two potential solutions to investors who want the liquidity and transparency of an ETF wrapper and a rules-based index approach.”
“We are pleased to see the J.P. Morgan Efficiente and Sector Rotator indexes in ETF form with Global X as the ETF provider,” said Scott Mitchell, Managing Director at J.P. Morgan.
In late October, ING IM’s High Dividend Equity strategy that focusses on the emerging world will be celebrating its three-year anniversary. Many investors are simply ignoring the emerging world now. But Manu Vandenbulck sees attractive valuations, and therefore opportunities.
Manu, you have been managing this strategy for 3 years now – together with your colleague Robert Davis. What are your experiences?
Very positive. I am still pleasantly surprised by the potential of dividend investing in the emerging world. Compared to developed markets, this way of investing in the emerging world is still largely unexplored territory. Asset managers are avoiding this part of the market. New funds in this area are often managed by asset managers that focus on the core markets (and have no specific knowledge of emerging equities) or exclusively focused on the emerging world (and thus lack the broad global focus of ING IM). ING IM has been specialized in dividend investing for 15 years and is a pioneer in this field.
However, a lot of investors pay no attention to dividend investing in the emerging world yet. Why is that?
I think this is largely due to outdated knowledge. A lot of investors primarily associate emerging equities with growth and think that dividend stocks underperform. But dividend stocks often outperform stocks that do not distribute any dividends, even in the emerging world. Additionally, higher growth in the emerging world ultimately translates into higher dividend growth. So dividend investors profit as well, and with a lower average risk! It is important to select the right stocks though: stocks that have the potential to offer robust dividend growth. Also, lots of investors do not know that as many as ninety percent of the shares in the emerging world pay dividends and the average dividend yield is close to 3%. The dividend yield of our strategy exceeds 4%. This is a nice income, given the environment of historically low interest rates.
There are fears of lower growth in China and higher interest rates in the US. What is your view?
There is indeed much talk about the risk of higher rates in the US and the fear that this will have a negative impact on our universe. There are of course parts of the emerging world that we believe will struggle, for example the expensive real estate stocks in Singapore and Hong Kong. In these regions, the debt ratio also has increased significantly in recent years. And so we do not invest in these companies. We believe that growth in China will be lower than in previous years as well, yet we still assume an average growth of 5% for the coming years. Also, the quality of the growth is improving. Some Chinese large banks, for example, are currently so attractively valued that we think it is justified to invest in the Chinese banking sector.
Is now a good time for investors to start dividend investing in the emerging world?
I am convinced it is. The valuation is attractive versus developed markets. The economic growth in the emerging world may not be as high as a few years ago, but it is still higher than in mature markets. That is supportive of earnings growth. Because we have seen a tremendous growth of the number of companies that share profits with their shareholders, this earnings growth will also lead to a gradual increase in dividends. Our focus on dividends and dividend growth also makes our strategy more stable. Dividends simply fluctuate less than profits that are more dependent on the business cycle. As for the macro perspective, we assume a gradual growth of the world economy. In such a situation, increases in interest rates in the US need not be a problem.
What does ING IM offer investors who opt for dividend investing in the emerging world?
First, we offer a lot of experience and proven track records. ING IM has been dividend investing since 1999. We are a pioneer in this field and offer a wide range of equity strategies focused on companies that offer above-average dividends and are able to show dividend growth. Our dividend strategies are managed in a stable team that, day after day, focuses on finding attractively priced companies that fit our approach. Within ING IM, our team can also benefit from the expertise of 25 analysts who are dedicated to their sectors, worldwide. Looking at our performances, this seems to be working well.
The EDF Group, a leader in low carbon energy, and Amundi, the European asset manager, have announced their partnership for the creation of a joint asset management company. The prime purpose of this company will be to raise funds from institutional and retail investors and to manage on behalf of third parties funds intended to finance projects relating to energy transition.
EDF will contribute to this project its privileged access to investment opportunities within the energy sector thanks to its world-renowned expertise in the field. The Group will be a driving force behind investment for project development, implementation and operation. Amundi will provide its investment structuration skills as well as its fund-raising capabilities.
The partnership set up between these two leaders in their relevant scopes of expertise will benefit from the wide range of activities developed by EDF with respect to energy transition, while targeting the critical mass required for streamlined investment solutions. EDF and Amundi intend to offer the market two theme-based specific investment products. The first will be dedicated to renewable energy (wind power, photovoltaic, small hydro, etc.). The second will focus on energy saving strategies for B-to-B (including electro intensive industries). EDF and Amundi have set the fund-raising goal at 1.5 billion euros.
This partnership between an asset manager and an industrial company seeks to develop a new alternative asset class, decorrelated from the volatility of traditional investment markets, in order in particular to draw long term investments for the benefit of the real economy.
The joint asset management company between EDF and Amundi is expected to create in parallel an investment fund based on high yield real estate. This approach could be extended eventually to non-energy related infrastructures.
Yves Perrier, Amundi’s CEO, said: “This partnership with EDF is part of Amundi’s strategy to design innovating investment solutions for its clients whilst addressing investment challenges faced by corporates”.
Thomas Piquemal, EDF Group’s Senior Executive Vice President in charge of Finance, said: “After our inaugural Green Bond issuance in November 2013, a reference in the developing green bond market, this partnership with Amundi demonstrates once again EDF’s ability to innovate for the benefit of energy transition financing.”
