Mauricio Barreto liderará la nueva oficina de Neuberger Berman en Bogotá / Foto: linkedin. Neuberger Berman abre oficina en Bogotá
Neuberger Berman has announced the opening of a new office in Bogota, Colombia.
Bogota is Neuberger Berman’s second location in Latin America, following the opening of an office in Buenos Aires, Argentina in 2011. Mauricio Barreto will head the office and continue to lead the firm’s client efforts in Colombia, working closely together with Maximiliano Rohm, who oversees the firm’s efforts in Latin America. Mr. Barreto will be supported by Ana Maria Roa Sarmiento and together they will service the local investment community.
“We have been working closely with Colombia’s sophisticated institutions for a number of years and want to further express our commitment to the region by establishing this local presence,” Dik van Lomwel, Head of EMEA and Latin America, said of the new office.
With the new office in Bogota, Neuberger Berman is now based in 18 countries globally. Demonstrating a growing international presence, 25% of the firm’s clients are outside the U.S. and its range of UCITS funds available to non-U.S. investors total $17.3 billion invested in equities, fixed income and alternatives strategies.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Damian Gadal. Pronto los inversores se darán cuenta de los enormes beneficios del petróleo barato
There are certain things that the month of January is traditionally noted for. Post the excesses of the Festive Season, the de rigeur New Year fitness regime. For those who enjoy such things, a half-decent pantomime, none of which would be complete without the presence of an arch villain and, of greater importance to the investment community, a fund manager’s outlook.
The performance of UK equities has not been without its own drama of late. We’re reliably informed that the UK stock market has seen its worst start to the year since 2008. For those needing a gentle reminder, that coincided with the start of the world’s financial crisis. And yet, seven years on and the world is a different place, slowly but surely continuing to heal, with central banks still having to be incredibly supportive.
So which arch villain has been responsible for spooking the markets this time? Look no further than the plunge in the oil price. In early December I noted that the rapid demise of Brent Crude could lead to it going to an almost unthinkable (at the time) US$ 50 a barrel or below, a near halving in six months. Now we are at that level, and for those who are wondering where we go from here, the honest answer is that it doesn’t really matter.
The Saudis have set in motion what they want to achieve. Sooner rather than later investment by the Canadians, Americans and others will result in the higher cost, and more unconventional areas of extracting oil, notably oil sands in Canada, shale projects in the US and deepwater drilling projects in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere, being abandoned.
The market is rightly searching for casualties and there are already obvious candidates. The most identifiable are the oil majors, suppliers to the oil industry, some sovereigns and lenders to all of the above. The presence of hedging contracts could delay the pain somewhat, so the real impact on company cashflows will take several months to come through. But casualties there will be.
Yet, at some stage, investors will move out of Armageddon mode and focus on the massive benefits that will accrue from a lower oil price. Western consumers and Western corporations, as well as the Asian economies of China and Indonesia will be amongst the immediate beneficiaries. Already economists are busy constructing models, trying to quantify the benefits. In the US, for example, the advantage of an average earning American doing average mileage should equate to a 2% pay rise as a result of the falling oil price. (Hands up who knows if such a person actually exists).
Let’s not forget the massive benefit a falling oil price has on Europe. All eyes at the moment are on Mario Draghi, I remain deeply sceptical over the impact of indiscriminate bond buying on loan demand. Much more quantifiable are the benefits of a falling oil price, coupled with ongoing weakness in the euro. These two factors could really help growth in the eurozone towards the second half of the year. Watch this space.
And so to the UK. While the momentum of growth is slowing here, the labour market is still supportive and further falls in inflation beneficial. Electoral uncertainty inevitably exists and already appears to be taking its toll on corporate confidence, as evidenced by Deloitte’s quarterly poll of UK CFOs. As a result the UK stock market is likely to be stuck in a trading range for the first half of the year, with sterling drifting gently towards £/US$ 1.40, clearly helpful for overseas earners.
The stiffest headwind in the US, apart from the more obvious stretched valuations and impacts of a stronger dollar on US corporations, is history. The US stock market has risen for six consecutive years now. The odds of that becoming seven are heavily stacked against it. But then again we have to keep on reminding ourselves that we are not in a ‘normal’ stock market cycle. All the academic studies indicate that post a financial crisis, the ‘normal’ economic timeline goes out of the window. Forget the six to seven year cycle. We’re told it could be 15, or possibly even 20 years, before the healing process has restored us to a more familiar world.
And what of the bond market? Just why were so many of us caught out by its direction in 2014 and for the first few weeks of 2015? Well, the answer could simply be that it continues to be a deflation hedge against the uncertain global growth outlook and the continuation of its role as a safe haven asset.
So where does this leave us? We’ll need to see global broadening and strengthening of profits growth. The aforementioned headwinds are likely to act as a brake on profits for the first half of 2015. The second half of 2015 however is shaping up to be more promising in this respect, with earnings growth essential for any share price progression. In essence, more of the same. More healing, certainly more volatility, but probably more progress.
Opinion column by Richard Buxton, Head of UK Equities, Old Mutual Global Investors
The past year will remain as one of the most difficult years we ever had to deal with highly macro driven markets. JK Capital Management thinks 2015 may be a lot more fundamental analysis driven.
“There is in China a very palpable sense of optimism floating around. Despite the economy slowing down and macro numbers all pointing to the same direction, president Xi Jinping managed to convince most Chinese that he was the right person to handle the task of reforming the economy”, highlights the firm.
“His fight against corruption is certainly his most high-profile achievement. Nobody seems to be above the law, not even Ling Jihua, the right arm of former president Hu Jintao, or Zhou Yongkang, the former Minister of Security and the first member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo to be arrested since Mao’s wife in the late seventies. His handling of difficult matters such as the growth of shadow banking and local government debt won him praise. By liberalizing interest rates for institutions while gradually opening up the capital account of China, he turned the Chinese bond market into the third largest in the world, at roughly USD5.3 trillion. Private companies like Alibaba and Tencent are now global giants in the world of e-commerce and have been allowed to grow exponentially despite the sensitive nature of anything related to the internet in China. By creating in October the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank with 20 other countries of Asia and USD50 billion of initial capital, China set up a platform to handle some of its overcapacity issues: It will help finance the infrastructure needs of its neighbors while selling its products and expertise overseas”.
In 2015 JK Capital Management anticipates the reform of State-Owned Enterprises to become less of a concept and more of a reality. “We see the Chinese government pushing companies to become global players. The most recent example was the merger of its two largest train makers to create a global leader almost three times bigger than its closest foreign competitor, Bombardier Transportation of Canada. In the technology space, we foresee a push in Near Field Communication, as part of new technologies promotion, the technology that allows contactless micropayments through mobile phones, as well as subsidies aimed at the development of hi-tech foundries able to compete with the Taiwanese and Korean leaders. Companies like ZTE, Huawei and Lenovo will make further headways in global markets be it in telecom equipment, servers or handsets against renowned leader”s.
At a time when macro numbers are not particularly inspiring, they believe China has the appropriate leadership and the required tools to sail through this transition phase. And, summing up, in 2015, they see opportunities in companies benefitting of SOE (state-owned enterprises) reform; in the rising global leaders from China and in the companies with key technologies.
In Asia, theyremain cautious about Thailand. “Despite the support given by the population to the military junta, the new government has achieved very little last year. Going forward, we believe the military government will continue to disappoint by failing to deliver the growth needed”.
In Indonesia, the newly elected president has had a strong start by implementing sensible policies such as cutting fuel subsidies and reducing the fiscal deficit while he managed to gather almost half of the parliament around him. “We believe he will keep on delivering in 2015, giving upside potential to the rupia”h.
They continue to like the Philippines’ macro picture, although we are mindful of expensive valuations in certain areas and the fact that the 2016 presidential election will start to create meaningful noise, probably leading to stock market volatility. “As for Korea, we are cautious on the domestic economy although there is enough room for fiscal and monetary stimulus. Stronger exports led by global recovery and chaebol reforms bringing higher dividend pay-outs could bring investment opportunities in Korea despite the expectation of a tepid growth for 2015”.
Taiwan and Korea are more about stock picking than about their economies. In Taiwan they are weary about the Smartphone supply chain that may be facing a tough year.
SocGen Private Banking has appointed Eric Verleyen as global CIO.
Eric Verleyen, CFA, joined Societe Generale Bank & Trust Luxembourg in 2005 as Head of Discretionary Management for the private bank. During his time in Luxembourg, he has contributed to the development of tailor-made portfolio management dedicated to Ultra High Net Worth Individuals.
In 2009, his responsibilities were enlarged to include Advisory Managed activities before becoming Chief Investment Officer, in charge of Discretionary Management and Advisory Management teams, as well as Products Offering in Luxembourg.
Previously, Eric Verleyen worked for KBL Luxembourg where he headed a portfolio managers team and for Sakura Bank Luxembourg.
He holds a degree from the Institut d’Administration et de Gestion of Louvain (Belgium) and was recently rewarded with the title of Outstanding Young Private Banker 2011 by Private Banker International.
Paul Smith, CFA, nuevo presidente y CEO de CFA Institute, organización a la que pertenecen más de 127.000 profesionales de la inversión en 147 países. Foto cedida. Paul Smith: nuevo presidente y CEO de CFA Institute
CFA Institute has named Paul Smith, CFA, currently managing director, APAC and global head, Institutional Partnerships at CFA Institute, as its new president and CEO, effective immediately. Smith’s appointment comes after an extensive global search to lead the organization of more 127,000 investment professionals in 147 countries, most of whom are CFA charterholders.
Smith has more than 30 years of leadership experience in the asset management industry, including over 18 years in Asia. He joined Bank of Bermuda in Hong Kong as Asia head of securities services in 1996. After HSBC’s acquisition of the bank in 2004, he served as global head of securities services and global head of alternative funds administration based in New York, where he was responsible for the delivery of services to 2,000 investment funds with over US$250 billion of assets. Before joining CFA Institute in October 2012, Smith was chairman and CEO of Asia Alternative Asset Partners.
With extensive management and business experience at global organizations, Smith will continue to support CFA Institute efforts to champion for ethical behavior in investment markets as a respected source of knowledge in the global financial community.
“It’s a critical moment for both investors and the professionals who serve them. In his time with CFA Institute, Paul has demonstrated the bold vision and strong leadership we need to advance the profession and shape a more trustworthy financial industry,” said Aaron Low, CFA, chair of the CFA Institute Board of Governors. “Paul has made a significant contribution to the investment industry, and CFA Institute is well-positioned for continued growth and leadership under his direction.”
The selection comes as CFA Institute continues to broaden its global reach, with a stronger presence planned for both China and India, continued growth of its recently launched Claritas Investment Certificate program, an Annual Conference in April in Frankfurt, Germany, and the second annual Putting Investors First Month in May – a global series of events to unite financial professionals throughout the world in a commitment to place investor interests above all others.
“Above all, CFA Institute was searching for a solid understanding of the value of our education programs, and how the CFA charter, our codes and standards, and advocacy efforts contribute to the advancement of our mission,” said Smith. “Having served CFA Institute from within I am fully aware of its rich history and contribution to the global investment profession, and I look forward to leading the organization in pursuit of our end goal, to advance the investment profession for the ultimate benefit of society.”
Smith is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales and an Executive Committee member of the Alternative Investment Association, Hong Kong. He holds a Masters degree in History from Oxford University, and is a CFA charterholder.
Smith succeeds the leadership of Dwight D. Churchill, CFA, who was named interim president and CEO in June of last year following the tenure of former president and CEO John Rogers, CFA.
Global investors have put some of their cash to work in spite of a more downbeat assessment of global growth and corporate profits, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for January. Investors have regained a muted risk appetite, turning to U.S. equities, bonds and real estate. The proportion of respondents overweight cash has tumbled to a net 17 percent from a net 28 percent last month. Average cash positions have fallen to 4.5 percent of portfolios, the lowest in six months, down from 5.0 percent in December.
More than two-thirds of investors say equities will outperform other major asset classes in 2015. Accordingly, a net 51 percent of asset allocators are overweight equities, down one percentage point since last month but the third-highest reading in the past year. A net 24 percent of asset allocators are overweight U.S. equities, up from a net 16 percent a month ago. However, a net 75 percent say U.S. equities are overvalued – the highest reading since the question first appeared in 2001. The proportion of asset allocators overweight real estate has climbed six percentage points to a net 9 percent. Investors also reduced net underweight positions in bonds.
Investors are less optimistic about the economy. A net 51 percent of the panel believes the world economy will improve this year, down from a net 60 percent in December. But, as deflation surfaces in the Eurozone, expectations of stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) are high. This month, 72 percent predict QE to start in the first quarter. Furthermore, the third quarter is now the most likely timing for a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, verses the second quarter a month ago.
“Lower oil prices and hopes for policy stimulus are sustaining both global growth expectations and investor confidence,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. “Amid expectations of ECB stimulus, consensus is convinced that Europe is the region to overweight in the coming year. But, on an absolute basis, European stocks will be vulnerable to headwinds from outside the region,” said Manish Kabra, European equity and quantitative strategist.
Equity allocations defy weaker corporate outlook
Allocations towards equities remain strong despite concerns about the prospects for profits and margins. A net 8 percent of global investors expect corporate operating margins to fall in the coming 12 months, up from a net 1 percent in December. The proportion of the panel expecting corporate profits to improve has fallen to a net 38 percent from a net 46 percent.
Only a small minority believes that a double-digit rise in profits is possible in the coming year. A net 53 percent now says that it is unlikely profits will improve 10 percent or more, up from a net 32 percent in December. On a regional basis, a net 41 percent of the panel says that profit outlooks are the most favorable in the U.S., with a net 20 percent backing Japan.
Oil and Energy – undervalued yet underweight
Investors see value in oil and in energy stocks – but it seems too soon for them to have made a move. A net 45 percent of respondents say that oil is undervalued, up from a net 36 percent in December and at the highest level in exactly six years. At the same time, a net 30 percent of the panel says that energy stocks are the most undervalued – up from a net 21 percent.
Allocators to energy and commodities remain weak. The proportion of investors underweight energy stocks has increased in the past month to a net 25 percent from a net 22 percent. Asset allocators have modestly increased allocations to commodities but a net 24 percent remains underweight.
Emerging markets fall further out of favor
With questions hanging over China’s economy, bearishness towards Global Emerging Market equities has intensified. A net 13 percent of asset allocators are underweight the region compared with a net 1 percent being overweight in December. Furthermore, a net 17 percent of investors say that emerging markets is the region they most want to underweight in the coming year. A net 41 percent of respondents to the regional survey say that they expect weaker growth in China in the coming year.
Foto: Anna Christina, Flickr, Creative Commons. La responsable de selección de fondos de la brasileña Itaú AM sale de la gestora
The head of offshore fund selection for Itaú Asset Management, Eliza Pepper, has left the Brazilian giant after seven years, Citywire Global publishes.
While her departure has been announced it is not yet known whether this will take place with immediate effect but her potential replacement, Jeff Lombardi, joined the group’s New York office last December as Head of Alternative Investing and Fund of Funds Group.
Lombardi is a former global head of private bank portfolio managers at Citi and is now a member of Itaú AM‘s international fund selection team.
Pepper joined the Brazilian group in 2008 to work in its New York office. Prior to this, she was head of investment manager research at UBS Wealth Management for two years. Between 1999 and 2006 she was at Citi, where was appointed head of research on its global investments platform for the wealth management division.
Itaú Asset Management runs $153 billion across all asset classes.
Lombard Odier Investment Managers (LOIM) has named Théodore Economou Chief Investment Officer of LOIM’s multi-asset business.
The unit, which managed $5.2bn (€4.5bn) at the end of December, also includes a fiduciary management division.
Economou most recently served as CEO and Chief Investment Officer of the CERN Pension fund, where over five years he initiated a risk-based approach that came to be known as the CERN Model. The multi-asset, factor-driven model aims to preserve capital while maximizing returns relative to risk.
Economou will be based in Geneva and build on a similar approach that LOIM began applying to its own employee pension fund in 2009 and developed for institutional clients. The risk-based approach is designed to meet the needs of Sovereign Wealth Funds and pension funds. He will report to Jan Straatman, Chief Investment Officer of LOIM.
In multi-asset investing, portfolios are built with a global mix of asset classes and styles, including investments in public and private markets. Factor-driven—also called smart beta-—portfolios allocate assets to investments with identifiable characteristics or “factors” that account for their performance.
Before joining CERN, Mr Economou was assistant treasurer of ITT Corporation in New York where he managed pension assets and liabilities worldwide as well as the firm’s capital markets activities. Prior to that, he was a consultant with Accenture’s Financial Services Group in Geneva and Zurich. He holds an M.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne and an MBA from Northwestern University’s J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management.
The European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA) has published its latest Investment Funds Industry Fact Sheet, which provides net sales of UCITS and non-UCITS for November 2014. 27 associations representing more than 99.6 percent of total UCITS and non-UCITS assets at end November 2014 provided them with net sales and/or net assets data.
The main developments in November 2014 in the reporting countries can be summarized as follows:Net sales of UCITS reduced to EUR 27 billion in November from EUR 44 billion in October. This fall in net sales came despite increased net sales of long term funds during the month.
Long-term UCITS (UCITS excluding money market funds) posted increased net inflows of EUR 31 billion, up from EUR 23 billion in October. Equity fund net sales returned to positive territory in November posting inflows of EUR 2 billion, against net outflows of EUR 6 billion in October. Bernard Delbecque, Director of Economics and Research commented: “The decline in stock market uncertainty brought back net sales of equity funds to positive territory in November.”
Bond fund net sales reduced to EUR 11 billion, down from EUR 16 billion in October. Balanced funds enjoyed a pick-up in net sales to EUR 13 billion in November, up from EUR 9 billion in October.
Money market fund net sales returned to negative territory in November posting outflows of EUR 4 billion in October, compared to net inflows of EUR 22 billion in October.
Total non-UCITS net sales remained relatively steady in November at EUR 16 billion. Net sales of special funds (funds reserved to institutional investors) remained at EUR 12 billion for the second consecutive month.
Total net assets of UCITS stood at EUR 8.02 trillion at end November 2014, representing a 1.5 percent increase during the month.
Total net assets of non-UCITS increased 1.4 percent to stand at EUR 3.17 trillion at month end. Overall, total net assets of the European investment fund industry stood at EUR 11.2 trillion at end November 2014.
Foto: PrimelmageMedia, Flickr, Creative Commons. Seis tendencias en real estate a vigilar en 2015
The world in which we live and work is changing rapidly and it’s sometimes difficult to spot the trends that will shape the coming years. “We have been tracking these trends and considering the potential implications for the real estate industry”, says KPMG.
“These trends are not only to be watched and accepted, there are real developments that will call for action if you are to stand out. If you anticipate those trends, real opportunities can emerge for your business”. Here’s what they’ll be watching in 2015:
Globalization
Driven by the need to diversify beyond domestic markets, global capital flows will continue to build. This will bring even greater understanding of RE markets as a whole. KMPG prediction is that the result will be an expanded RE universe with investors on the lookout for strong risk-adjusted returns.
Shift to “real assets”
Uncertainty, heightened volatility and slower growth has led to investors allocating a larger piece of the pie to “real assets”. This term comprises a variety of tangible investments that give investors options and are widely thought to provide a stable source of income in weak markets and access to capital appreciation in strengthening markets.
Increasing risk appetite
The so-called “flight-to-core” has led to significant competition for prime assets in sought-after locations. As they are currently increasing allocations to real estate, investors are being forced – through competition – and encouraged – by improving economic sentiment – to diversify. “We expect to see new geographical locations, asset classes and asset segments gain in popularity”.
Asset class broadens
Property types which would have been considered ‘specialised’ just a short time ago are now becoming mainstream. As investors increasingly seek long-term income flows, demand for assets with operating elements – such as hotels, student accommodation and so on – are receiving increasing interest, which in turn is leading to yield compression. All signs point to this continuing.
Securitization
The depth and breadth of listed REITs/companies is increasing, with more conservative balance sheets post-2009. The shift from Defined Benefit (DB) to Defined Contribution (DC) is also supporting this trend, along with the emergence of DC-compatible private equity vehicles. Will this continue into 2015? We certainly believe so.
Debt
Ongoing bank deleveraging is making space for new entrants to debt markets. “Watch this space as we believe this is the sign of things to come”.
