The year 2015 could be a mirror image of the year 1981, when highly restrictive policies by the U.S. Federal Reserve ended a prolonged uptrend in inflation, according to BNY Mellon Chief Economist Richard Hoey. Hoey made the comments in his March 25 commentary, State of the Debate.
Yields peaked in 1981 when anti-inflationary policy under Paul Volcker, then the chairman of the Federal Reserve, was aggressive enough to halt the uptrend in inflation. Hoey believes that today’s anti-deflationary policies by central banks will prove aggressive enough to overcome today’s risks of deflation, disinflation and lowflation. He believes that this means that the year 2015 is likely to mark both a bottom in inflation and the end of the long secular decline in bond yields. This may result in a transition from the “coupon plus” bond market of current yield plus capital gains on bonds over much of the last three decades to a “coupon minus” bond market.
This is an echo of his Forbes magazine column in 1981 titled Last Chance This Century, in which he stated, “I personally believe that the peak in long-term interest rates reached during 1981 is likely to stand for at least the next century.” Hoey describes a likely mirror image opposite pattern in 2015 as bottoming inflation and bond yields as a “reverse Last Chance This Century.”
“The central banks have placed such a priority on fighting deflation risks that they are accepting the risk of asset bubbles in order to generate an upward shift in current spending,” Hoey said. “Given the intensity of the banks’ anti-deflationary policies, higher inflation should return, although not for a while.” Overall, Hoey said he expects a gradual normalization of inflation rather than upsurge to excessive inflation.
The legacy of excess capacity in many countries that resulted from the Great Recession is a key reason for the low inflation today, despite the low interest rates and quantitative easing, the report said. The report notes that it has taken time to work off this capacity. In addition increased financial regulations that were motivated by the recession have slowed the response to monetary policy, the report said.
Hoey is optimistic about the prospects for a long expansion in the world economy, although he said that he expects gross domestic product growth to be on a lower path than before the recession. “This expectation results from a one-time downshift in growth from the effect of the Great Recession plus deteriorating demographics that reflect a decelerating growth rate for the working-age population in many countries,” he said. “Also, we’re seeing suboptimal economic policies in many countries.”
Foto: Michael Dorausch. Sotheby's International Realty entra en el mercado brasileño
Sotheby’s International Realty announced that Brezilian Imobiliaria Bossa Nova has joined the brand and will now do business as Bossa Nova Sotheby’s International Realty. The firm, led by owners Luciano Amado as president and Marcello Romero as vice president, is located at Alameda Gabriel Monteiro da Silva 2027, Pinheiros, Sao Paulo.
“Sao Paulo andRio de Janeiro are exciting markets that encompass extraordinary properties in a broadly diverse destination, and provide a highly influential source of avid real estate buyers,” said Philip White, president and chief executive officer, Sotheby’s International Realty Affiliates. “We are pleased to welcome Luciano, Marcello and their team to our global network.”
According to Romero, the new affiliation with the brand represents the opportunity for them to expand and grow. “The support of this brand will allow us to supply our team with new technologies, training and market intelligence, combined with an extraordinary inventory in Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and top beach and countryside locations,” said Amado. “Thanks to this affiliation, we now have direct access to a global market through the brand’s 760 offices worldwide.”
The brand´s network has currently more than 16,500 sales associates located in approximately 760 offices in 60 countries and territories worldwide. Bossa Nova Sotheby’s International Realty listings are marketed on the global website. In addition to the referral opportunities and widened exposure generated from this source, the firm’s brokers and their clients will benefit from an association with the Sotheby’s auction house and worldwide marketing programs of the Real Estate Business. Each office is independently owned and operated.
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Los gestores de fondos latinoamericanos mejoran de forma significativa sus perspectivas sobre la renta variable mexicana
According to Family Wealth, UBS Wealth Management has a new leader for the Latin America and Caribbean regions, effective March 30. Alexander G van Tienhoven, a former manager at Citi, will join the company, based in Zurich.
As Latin American and Caribbean Managing Director, van Tienhoven will be responsible for Brazil, Mexico, Bahamas, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile, Peru, Bolivia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Guyana, Central America and the Caribbean. He will report to Paul Raphael, who leads the global emerging markets business, and takes over from Gabriel Castello, who is now responsible for WM Europe International.
Alexander G van Tienhoven is one of the most senior and experienced wealth management executives in the Latin American market. He had a 27-year career at Citi, where he joins from. In his latest position was CEO for Citi Wealth and Investment Management in Mexico and Latin America. In his role, he was responsible for the Citi Private Bank, Citigold Private Client, Banamex Banca Privada & Patrimonial, Citigold International and International Personal Banking the businesses in the region. He was also responsible for the Asset Management, Brokerage, Retirement, Insurance and Trust businesses.
Mr. van Tienhoven received a B.S.E. from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, in 1987 and attended the Stanford University Business School Executive Program in 1999.
Foto: Geraint Rowland. Toronto, Nueva York, Islas Vírgenes Británicas y Sao Paulo: los mayores centros financieros de Las Américas
According to the Global Financial Centers Index (GFCI) published this week by Z/Yen Group,New York, London, Hong Kong, and Singapore are the four leading global financial centers in the world. All four centers gained points and retain their relative ranks. New York remains the top centre and Tokyo is in fifth place.
Four of the top five North American centers were up in the ratings. San Francisco is slightly down, losing some of the ‘fintech’ gains made in the previous edition. Chicago, Boston, and Toronto all showed small improvements in the ratings.
Caribbean islands are well ahead of Latin American mainlands. The top ‘island’ centers all rose but the Latin American centers of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Mexico City fell.
Western European centers are a mixed bunch. The top five European centers are in the same rank order as in the last report London, Zurich, Geneva, Luxembourg, and Frankfurt. Dublin sees the largest increase in ratings. The Channel Islands regain ground lost and Rome, Madrid, Lisbon, and Reykjavik languish as the Eurozone crisis continues.
Eastern European and Central Asian centers decline. Istanbul, Almaty, Prague and Warsaw all saw their ratings decline. Uncertainty in Ukraine has undoubtedly cast a shadow over this region.
Eleven of the top twelve Asia/Pacific centers see a rise in their ratings and rankings. Busan had the largest rise, followed by Shenzhen and Taipei. The Chinese centers all rose. Dalian, a new addition to the index, entered in 51st place.
Middle East and Africa centers fluctuate. Riyadh, Doha, and Bahrain rose in the ratings while Dubai and Abu Dhabi saw modest declines. Africa is ‘hot’ to perhaps ‘overheated’. Johannesburg moved up six places to 32nd. Casablanca moved up nine places to 42nd.
The index rates 82 financial centers and is sponsored by the Qatar Financial Centre Authority.
Foto: Martin Abegglen. UBS Wealth Americas promociona a Todd Locicero y Ron Meraz a directores regionales
Todd Locicero and Ron Meraz have been promoted to regional directors at UBS Wealth Management Americas, where they previously were complex directors, publishes reuters.
Locicero, who joined UBS from Morgan Stanley in 2010 to run its private wealth business for wealthy individuals in Los Angeles, is relocating to New York City to become Metro regional director. While director of a “complex” in Los Angeles, he increased in a 100% the size of the business. Locicero reported directly to Chandler, eastern U.S. wealth management head, when he first joined UBS.
Meraz, who has been named southwestern regional director, was complex director of Orange County since 2008. He joined UBS from Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management, where he ran Merrill’s office of diversity and also worked as a broker and complex director.
Foto: Youtube.com. Paulo Maia designado CEO de HSBC para América Latina
Paulo Maia has been appointed CEO, HSBC Latin America effective July 1, 2015.
An international executive, Mr. Maia joined HSBC in 1993 and has held executive positions in each of the bank’s main business lines: Commercial Banking; Global Banking and Markets; and Retail Banking and Wealth Management. Mr. Maia has worked in Brazil, Great Britain, the United States and Australia. He was appointed Executive Director of HSBC Bank Brazil in 2000 and Deputy Chief Executive Officer in Brazil in 2008. He was most recently Chief Executive Officer of HSBC Bank Australia before his appointment on January 7, 2013 as President and Chief Executive Officer for HSBC Bank Canada based in Vancouver. On August 12, 2013 Mr. Maia was appointed Group General Manager of HSBC Holdings plc. For 11 years prior to joining HSBC, he held positions in corporate finance and corporate banking in New York, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.
Sandra Stuart, who joined HSBC in 1980, has been appointed President and Chief Executive Officer, HSBC Bank Canada, succeding Maia.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: Mark B Schlemmer. Bank Loans Are the Tortoise, Not the Hare
The global financial crisis did not change the nature of bank loans.
Bank loans were specifically designed by bankers to resist the forces that drive volatility in most other asset classes. Bankers designed bank loans to reduce the volatility that comes along with changes in interest rates and company values, so they insisted that loans have floating coupons and that they be senior and secured.
History shows they did a very good job. 2008 was the only year since loan indices began when loans had a negative return. The 2008’s performance was not driven by credit quality but by a global leverage unwind that created many forced sellers and far fewer buyers in a very short period.
When the selling and rebound were finished, loans resumed their historically typical role: to be the tortoise rather than the hare.
Cheryl Stober is a vice president and a product manager for the bank loan team at Loomis, Sayles & Company, a subsidiary of Natixis Global AM
Foto: Júlio Boaro. El Foro de Fondos de Pensiones Brasil 2015 reunirá a los principales protagonistas del sector brasileño e internacional
The Pension Fund Brazil Forum, that will take place in Sao Paulo on the 13th of May organized by Markets Group, is a specialized gathering for Brazilian and international pension funds to discuss the unique challenges and opportunities faced by the key players in Latin America’s largest pension fund community.
The Forum was designed in collaboration with leading Brazilian pension fund decision makers to support the Brazilian pension funds who are confronted with falling local interest rates, the threat of inflation at home and rapidly increasing liabilities tied to an increasingly robust but aging middle class. It is an opportunity for Brazilian pension funds, asset managers and industry experts to work together toward solutions in Brazilian pension fund portfolio construction, Brazilian pension fund asset allocation and investment strategy, as well as to develop innovative strategies for liability and lifecycle modeling for Brazilian pension funds.
Closing Keynote speaker will be Henrique de Campos Meirelles, Former President of the Central Bank of Brazil, who will be preceded by Cecília Mendes Garcez Siqueira, PREVI;Maurício Marcellini, Funcef; Gabriel Amado de Moura, Fundação Itaubanco; Jorge Simino, Fundação Cesp; Antonio J. Carvalho, PREVI; Ana Nolte, Valia; Fábio Mazzeo, METRUS – Instituto de Seguridade Social; Carlos Kawall, Banco J Safra; Arlete Nese, Banesprev; Reinaldo Soares de Camargo, Funcef; Flavio Pacheco Moreira, Petros; Edner Castilho, Fundação Cesp; Nairam Félix de Barros, AGROS; Adilson Ferrarezi, HSBC Fundo de Pensão; Giuliano Lorenzoni, FAPES and Luiz Mário Farias, Towers Watson.
Key discussion topics include:
Best Practices in Asset-Liability Management: Developed and Emerging Market Pension Fund Perspectives
Investment Strategies for Long Term Asset Preservation and Growth
Fiduciary Excellence: Evolving Responsibilities in Global and Emerging Markets
Trends and Macroeconomic Prospects in Brazilian and Global Economies
Accessing Alternative Investments & the Future of International Asset Allocation
Pension System’s Lifecycle and Educational Programs for Contributors
Current Brazilian Pension Fund Regulation, New Legislation & Considerations in Fundraising & Capital Allocation
For additional information on program or registration, please visit link
Ian Headon, responsable de Servicios Técnicos y de Regulación de Depositaría en Northern Trust, dice que la regulación es una maratón, no un sprint. . Los inversores demandan cada vez más productos acordes con la nueva regulación
More than a quarter (28 percent) of fund managers and consultants surveyed at a Northern Trust seminar on regulation said they believed investors in funds are now demanding products fully compliant with new regulations.
“Investment managers launching new products are now seeing an increasing demand from investors for a combination of traditional offshore and fully regulated products,” said Ian Headon, head of Depositary Regulatory and Technical Services at Northern Trust. “This is a gradual, incremental change in investor behavior and will have a significant impact on the evolution of fund managers’ product offerings – regulation is here to stay, but this is a marathon, not a sprint.”
However, whilst the survey demonstrated an increased demand for compliant products, the majority of respondents (65 percent) still believed their investors viewed the Alternative Investment Fund Manager Directive (AIFMD) as primarily a compliance exercise, despite the fact that AIFMD implementation is almost complete.
“The regulatory landscape continues to evolve and as AIFMD implementation nears completion, the industry is faced with a new wave of regulation,” said Robert Angel, head of Regulatory Services for Europe, Middle East and Africa at Northern Trust. “The successful managers will be the ones that break away from the pack and get ahead of the regulatory trends. We provide our clients with regular insights on the latest industry developments and the opportunities that regulation creates, helping to ensure clients can remain ahead of the curve.”
Northern Trust’s Global Fund Services business provides custody, fund administration, investment operations outsourcing, and ETF solutions to investment managers across the globe and across the spectrum of asset classes. Northern Trust offers depositary services in the United Kingdom, The Netherlands, Ireland, Luxembourg and Guernsey.
Global alternative asset manager The Carlyle Group has raised $2.5 billion for its first international energy fund, the largest first-time fund in the firm’s history. Carlyle International Energy Partners (CIEP) began raising capital in mid-2013 and has attracted 160 investors. Carlyle now has over $10 billion of capital ready to deploy across its global energy platform.
Carlyle Chairman Daniel A. D’Aniello said, “This has been a remarkable fund raise, the largest first-time fund in our 28-year history. We are grateful for the support of our investors who share our excitement at the current investment opportunities across the international oil and gas sector. The vision and experience of Marcel van Poecke, who leads our international energy team, made this possible. Marcel, alongside Ken Hersh, David Albert, Rahul Culas, Bob Mancini and Matt O’Connor, who led our other energy strategies, form what we believe is the most talented and experienced energy investing platform in the world.”
Mr. van Poecke said, “This fundraising effort reflects the market’s confidence in Carlyle and our ability to create value in the international energy sector. This is one of the best energy investing environments I’ve seen in more than 30 years in the industry. Carlyle’s broad energy platform plus a significant amount of dry powder enables us to leverage current opportunities and market volatility across the global energy markets.”
CIEP seeks investment opportunities in oil and gas outside North America, notably in Europe, Africa, Latin America and Asia. The primary investment focus is on oil and gas exploration and production (E&P), mid- & downstream, refining and marketing (R&M) and oil field services (OFS).
CIEP’s current investments include: Varo Energy, a Swiss-based refining, storage and distribution business operating in Germany and Switzerland; Discover Exploration, an oil and gas exploration company based in the UK that focuses on Africa, Latin America and Asia; and HES International, a European liquids, dry-bulk storage and handling business located in The Netherlands.
The final close of CIEP further expands Carlyle’s global energy offering and brings more than $10 billion of capital to invest across the sector through CIEP (led by Marcel van Poecke), NGP Energy Capital Management (led by Ken Hersh), Carlyle Power Partners (co-headed by Robert Mancini & Matt O’Connor) and Carlyle Energy Mezzanine Opportunities Fund (co-headed by David Albert and Rahul Culas).
The CIEP team consists of 14 investment professionals, all with extensive international oil and gas industry investment and operational expertise. In addition to Marcel van Poecke, it includes Managing Directors Bob Maguire and Joost Dröge, both industry veterans with 55 years’ combined successful energy investing experience, as well as Paddy Spink, Senior Advisor to CIEP, with 35 years’ upstream experience in Africa, Latin America & Europe. The advisory team for CIEP has offices in London and they will continue to benefit from the support of the firm’s global network of 40 offices.
