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China’s Two Child Policy: Investors Should Focus Indirectly

China’s Fifth Plenum in October reemphasize the need to support economic growth while also pushing forward measures aimed at increasing the country’s competitive landscape. Among the surprised announcements was Beijing’s decision to loosen its three decade-old single child program and allow all couples to have a second. Children-focused consumer goods, such as milk and paper companies, rallied after the announcement, but have seen gains quickly returned; suggesting that the best direct investment strategy for the two-child policy is limited. “Instead, we believe investors should focus indirectly, and consider investments that reflect the need to loosen the single child restriction instead of the pending result.” Says Christopher Chu, Union Bancaire Privée.

“Though it may sound counter intuitive, a better thematic for the two-child policy would be healthcare and insurance sectors -continues the analyst-. Allowing families to now have two children reflects changing demographic profiles in China, where according to official data, the percentage of those over the age of 60 rises to 39% in 2050, compared with 15% currently. Beijing’s push to increase the nation’s fertility rate is to offset a decreasing labor force and proliferating aging population. As incomes rise, demand for higher quality life moves in tandem. This should lead to a greater ability to spend on healthcare and medical services, where penetration rates are low and only compete with inadequate public coverage and quality.”

UBP thinks the financial sector would also be a beneficiary, as the key towards promoting reform and efficiency would be to further liberalize the renminbi and channel credit to more productive sectors. Before the Plenum, the firm explains, Beijing removed a ceiling on deposit rates, allowing greater competition among the banks while also improving incomes for household savings. If loans were to further channel into less productive sectors, overcapacity issues would ensure China’s vulnerabilities to external price shocks. “These steps to internationalize the renminbi also act as a prelude to the International Monetary Fund’s decision to include the yuan into its Special Drawing Rights consideration.” He adds.

Direct child investments such as baby formula, education, and paper companies are beneficiaries of general population growth and improving household incomes. “But with a current estimate of 20 million births per year in China, this number is still below that of the 1980s when the country experienced an estimated 26 million births annually. With fewer joining the current generation, the median age of 35 in 2010 will rise to 49 in 2050, and also lift the dependency ratio (the ratio of those over the age of 65 by those aged 15 to 64) from a current level of 11 to 42 by 2050.”

In the oppinion of UBP, the removal of the single child restriction is an important social advancement but does little to lift productivity in China, which is the economy’s main concern. The caveat to the firm´s analysis is if China’s experience a slight increase in population growth in tandem with waning cultural preference for sons. With sex ratio near 120 boys to 100 girls, this creates another social strain for aging China, and thus, a generation of daughters would be welcomed. Otherwise, China’s population profile will continue to age quickly and not quietly, giving policy makers something to cry about, he concludes.

New Sovereign Wealth Funds, Opportunities For External Managers

| By Gabriela Huerta | 0 Comentarios

The growing number of resource-rich countries establishing sovereign wealth funds present an ideal opportunity for asset managers not sufficiently specialized or alternative to win mandates from established sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), according to the latest issue of The Cerulli Edge – Global Edition.

Cerulli says that new SWFs are likely to need help in the early stages, even in mainstream asset classes and geographies. It cites, as an example, oil-rich Nigeria, which is in the early stages of a complex three-fund approach to sovereign wealth. The structure comprises: a stabilization fund, an infrastructure fund, and a future generation fund. The latter, which Cerulli likens to a classic sovereign fund, is to receive 40% of oil surpluses, with a target allocation of 80% for growth assets. “It is likely that much of that will need the assistance of external managers,” says Barbara Wall, Europe research director at Cerulli.

The firm notes that while some SWFs are only interested in managers that either provide a specialist alternative that cannot be replicated internally, or a partnership model that opens the door to new investment possibilities, others appear committed to outsourcing the majority of their funds to external managers.

Funds from as far afield as Angola to Kazakhstan, Mongolia to East Timor or Papua New Guinea are potential opportunities. “An increasing number of countries feel they need a sovereign fund in order to diversify assets for the long term. These funds–some of which may grow to have tens of billions of dollars under management–will be lucrative sources of outsourcing mandates in their early years,” adds Wall.

In its review of the changes taking place within the SWF arena, Cerulli notes that established heavyweight Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) is bringing more of its assets in-house. “What’s unusual about this move is that instead of bringing passive assets under its own supervision, the management that is being brought back in-house appears to be quite technical and specialist,” says David Walker, who leads Cerulli’s European institutional research practice. “For example, last year, ADIA created two new mandates within its internal equities department: U.S. equities and high conviction. The latter in particular is not normally the sort of mandate that a fund like this would take in-house, not when two-thirds of the fund is still outsourced.”

Walker adds that two of ADIA’s three most significant hires over the past two years have been for internal rather than external asset management: Christof Ruhl as global head of research and John Pandtle as head of the United States in the internal equities department. Other areas of increasing internal expertise include real estate and infrastructure.

BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey Finds Investors Regaining Risk Appetite

| By Alicia Miguel | 0 Comentarios

Global investors have regained appetite for risk against the backdrop of strong liquidity and a fairly positive economic outlook, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for June.

A net 66 percent of respondents expect the global economy to strengthen over the next year. This bullish reading is unchanged from last month’s survey. However, concern at the pace of expansion is rising. A net 78 percent now anticipate below-trend growth over the next 12 months. In response, more investors than ever before (63 percent) are calling on companies to increase their capital spending.

Equities are in greater favor than at any time since the start of the year. A net 48 percent of asset allocators report overweights, up 11 percentage points month-on-month, even though a net 15 percent now regard the asset class as over-valued – this measure’s strongest response since 2000. Appetite for real estate has also risen. The net 6 percent overweight reported ranks as the highest in eight years.

In contrast, underweight positions in bonds (now regarded as over-valued by a net 75 percent) have reached their highest level since the end of 2013.

The prospect of debt defaults in China has strengthened as the most significant risk on investors’ horizon. It is now cited by 36 percent of respondents. 20 percent worry most over potential ‘asset mania’ – a new category introduced in the survey this month.

Even so, investors have reduced their cash buffers. Although still somewhat high, average holdings of 4.5 percent are at their lowest since January.

“Although fund inflows and oil prices argue for near-term consolidation, the case for a summer ‘melt-up’ remains stronger than for a meltdown as high liquidity and low growth force investor cash levels down,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.

“Europe has been a cheap way to get equity exposure, but investors no longer see Europe as cheap. This together with some uncertainty on the level of growth may be why optimism is starting to wane,” said Obe Ejikeme, European equity and quantitative strategist.

European QE postponed

Investors no longer see quantitative easing by the European Central Bank as imminent. 42 percent of respondents anticipate any ECB program coming in Q4 or even 2015, up from 19 percent last month. A further 22 percent expect no action. Against this background, longer-term conviction towards European equities has started to decline. A net 21 percent now see Europe as the equity market they are most likely to overweight over the next year, down seven percentage points month-on-month.

However, current allocations suggest global investors are not yet ready to give up on the region. Net overweights have risen for the second consecutive month, to a net 43 percent.

Elsewhere, regional fund managers are already showing signs of caution. A net 6 percent of now regard European equities as over-valued – the highest proportion since 2000. As recently as April a net 16 percent viewed the market as under-valued.

Japan picks up

Japanese equities have declined 7 percent this year, underperforming other global markets. The survey shows global investors treating this as a buying opportunity. A net 21 percent are now overweight, up from a net 7 percent in May.

Moreover, a net 10 percent favor overweighting Japan in preference to all other equity markets in the next year.

These changes come as regional fund managers turn significantly more positive on Japan’s outlook than recently. A net 73 percent expect the country’s economy to strengthen over the next 12 months. This represents a 20 percentage point rise in the space of two months.

Dollar dominates

Bullishness on the U.S. dollar has re-emerged strongly. A net 79 percent of respondents now expect the currency to appreciate over the next year. This stands out as one of the strongest readings on this measure in the past 15 years.

In contrast, a net 28 and 48 percent expect the Euro and Japanese yen, respectively, to weaken over the same period. The European currency’s reading has declined seven percentage points month-on-month. This appears to reflect a combination of the ECB’s dovish stance and some weaker European macro data.

An overall total of 223 panelists with US$581 billion of assets under management participated in the survey from 6 June to 12 June 2014. A total of 167 managers, managing US$422 billion, participated in the global survey. A total of 120 managers, managing US$270 billion, participated in the regional surveys. The survey was conducted by BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research with the help of market research company TNS.

BNY Mellon IM Signs Distribution Agreement with Banca Mediolanum and Investment Partnership with Mediolanum Vita

| By Alicia Miguel | 0 Comentarios

BNY Mellon Investment Management has announced a new agreement with Banca Mediolanum to distribute funds to their network of retail clients.

The agreement is for Banca Mediolanum’s 4500 financial advisors to distribute UCITS funds and investment solutions available through the BNY Mellon Global Funds, plc SICAV. The range of solutions includes fixed income, equity, dynamic, flexible and absolute return funds, as well as other strategies designed to seek consistent returns in volatile market conditions.

Additionally, four BNY Mellon funds and strategies join the range of collective investments undertakings (CIUs) that can be sold within the Mediolanum MyLife insurance policy, a unit-linked product by Mediolanum Vita that offers investors a selection of high quality investment solutions:

· BNY Mellon Global Real Return Fund, a flexible multi-asset fund which combines capital protection with the search for returns

· BNY Mellon Absolute Return Equity Fund, an absolute return equity fund aiming to achieve positive returns independently from the underlying market direction

· BNY Mellon Global Equity Income Fund, an equity fund that actively selects stocks able to generate high, sustainable dividends over the long-term

· The Newton Asian Income strategy, that aims to capture the growth potential of Asian companies

“The agreement with Banca Mediolanum is part of our ongoing growth strategy in Italy”, states Marco Palacino, Managing Director of BNY Mellon Investment Management in Italy. “We are fully committed to strengthening and extending our relationship with the most important distribution networks in Italy and as a result, become closer to retail investors. Our product range is well suited to the current financial environment, due to advanced, flexible and dynamic strategies capable of providing stable returns while containing market volatility. This is the main goal of our equity and bond absolute return funds, such as the BNY Mellon Absolute Return Equity Fund and BNY Mellon Absolute Return Bond Fund, now available to retail investors also through Banca Mediolanum’s network of financial advisors”.

Amherst Capital Brings Real Estate Expertise to Standish Mortgage Team

| By Fórmate a Fondo | 0 Comentarios

Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC (“Standish”), a BNY Mellon investment boutique with a focus on fixed income, announced that Standish’s dedicated mortgage team have become employees of its subsidiary, Amherst Capital Management LLC (“Amherst Capital”), in order to unite Amherst Capital’s deep real estate expertise and industry-leading technology with Standish’s investment processes for mortgage-related assets.

As dual officers of Standish, the mortgage team will remain in Boston and continue to utilize the same investment processes for Standish clients, while gaining access to Amherst Capital’s real estate data set and analytical tools to provide an information advantage for specialized solutions in the U.S. real estate credit space. The mortgage team will provide investment advice with respect to approximately US$ 6.5bn of real estate-related assets.

“Amherst Capital’s loan-level data analysis of the real estate capital markets provides the mortgage team with a unique perspective on the fundamental elements driving asset performance, and a specialized set of tools for managing risk,” said Dave Leduc, CEO of Standish. “This collaboration reinforces Standish’s long history of innovation, client service and working with the best talent in the industry to enhance the investing process for our clients.”

Under the leadership of Sean Dobson, a well-known real estate finance executive with a history of managing U.S. real estate investment strategies, Amherst Capital is tapping the expertise of senior mortgage analysts, including Laurie Goodman, who provides leadership and guidance in research and investment strategy on an exclusive advisory basis as Non-Executive Director.

“This is an important milestone for Amherst Capital as we position ourselves to offer a comprehensive set of real estate credit investment capabilities, including direct lending strategies,” said Sean Dobson, Amherst Capital CEO. “The U.S. real estate credit markets are still in disrepair from the financial crisis and asset managers will play a bigger role to facilitate recovery. Inefficiencies within the sector tend to reward a high level of investment in research and analytics, and as such, Amherst Capital is poised to play a significant role in this transformation.”

Amherst Capital was established by BNY Mellon in collaboration with Amherst Holdings in 2015 to support Standish’s capabilities in real estate investing and to also offer standalone real estate investment solutions to meet the growing demand of an underserved real estate credit market as a consequence of the changing U.S. regulatory landscape.

Julius Baer to Acquire Majority Stake in Kairos Investment Management

| By Fórmate a Fondo | 0 Comentarios

Kairos Investment Management SpA, the leading independent Italian wealth and asset management firm, has delivered impressive, profitable growth since the start of its partnership with Julius Baer in 2013: assets under management have nearly doubled from EUR 4.5 billion to EUR 8 billion. On the back of this successful partnership, Julius Baer has decided to increase its participation to 80% for an undisclosed amount, following its initial purchase of 19.9%. The transaction is expected to close in the course of 2016. Julius Baer and Kairos have agreed to list Kairos in a subsequent step through an offering of a minority percentage of Kairos’ share capital. Both steps are subject to regulatory approval.

Kairos was established in 1999 as a partnership and today employs a total staff of over 150. The company is specialized in wealth and asset management, including best-in-class investment solutions and advice. Paolo Basilico, founding partner, president and CEO of Kairos, and his partners will continue to run the business with the same team and pursue the same client-centric strategy.

Boris F.J. Collardi, CEO of Julius Baer, commented: “The partnership between Julius Baer and Kairos has proven to be a powerful force in the Italian wealth management sector, surpassing our expectations when we started this journey in 2013. We are confident that the future close cooperation combined with the intended listing will bring additional growth momentum and will further strengthen our position in the Italian wealth management market.”

Paolo Basilico added: “We are very pleased with our development over the last years, which confirms our positioning to provide independent investment excellence to our clients. I am very much looking forward to deepening our partnership with Julius Baer and being able to spearhead Kairos into the next phase of growth.”

European Investors are Favoring Fixed Income ETFs

| By Gabriela Huerta | 0 Comentarios

As of October 30^th, 2015, European ETP assets stood at $514 billion (€465 billion) according to Deutsche Bank’s European Monthly ETF Market Review. During the month, European ETP had net inflows of +€6.4 billion, considerably more than the +€1.8 billion from September. Fixed Income ETFs led the charge with notable inflows of +€3.5 billion followed by Equity ETFs which received +€2.5 billion over the last month. Commodity ETPs listed in Europe recorded inflows of +€400 million during the same period.

US-listed ETFs providing exposure to European equities registered monthly inflows of +$2.3 billion bringing YTD total to over +$32.4 billion.

According to Deutsche Bank, Investors remained bullish on the Energy sector while Short and Leverage Long focused ETFs lost momentum.

Within fixed income, investment grade led the flows, attracting +€2.9 billion over the last month, bringing YTD numbers to +€20.4 billion. High yield bonds reversed previous month’s trend and recorded inflows of +€700 million.

To see the full report follow this link.

A 30% Fall in Total AUMs of Funds Focused on Greater China Region is Unnerving, but a Long View is Needed

| By Fórmate a Fondo | 0 Comentarios

Asset managers offering China-focused funds to European investors will need patience in abundance as they await a recovery in flows after growth in the world’s second-biggest economy slowed and its stock market plunged, but the rewards will justify the pain in most cases, according to the latest issue of The Cerulli Edge – European Monthly Product Trends Edition.

The global analytics firm, accepts that some asset managers may have to axe certain products, while others will withdraw completely from China. However, it maintains that the recent turmoil should be seen as a cyclical blip.

“China, like the rest of Asia, continues to offer huge opportunities,” says Barbara Wall, Europe research director at Cerulli. “Granted, a 30% fall in three months in total assets under management of funds focused on the greater China region is unnerving but a long view is needed. China’s economy is on course to overtake the United States, while its population of 1.35 billion includes around 100 million retail investors, according to some estimates.”

The company notes that China’s unusually high concentration of retail investors is one of the factors behind the panic reaction to what is a slowing of economic growth, rather than a recession. Also, the Chinese government still has much to learn about how best to intervene in the market when things go wrong.

“China is uncharted territory, which means there are no easy answers. However, the fundamentals remain attractive. AUM data, along with share prices, looks much better when compared with five years ago than with three months ago,” says Wall.

The firm notes that despite suffering some setbacks in China, Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, one of the biggest European investors in Asia, describes its stance on the country as “strategically overweight“. It is among those who view the situation as a “buying opportunity”.

Fidelity, one of the longest established players in Asia, has also run into glitches in China, but Cerulli believes the firm will be rewarded in the longer term. “With sizeable teams of analysts looking specifically at China, companies such as Fidelity are better equipped than most to pick the stocks that will bounce the highest from the recent fall,” says Brian Gorman, an analyst at Cerulli.

“Volatility is likely to linger, but the rewards will be high for those willing to play the long game. For some, this will mean closing certain products and returning to the drawing board, to come up with a better offering,” adds Gorman.

Prudential IM to Change its Name to PGIM and Launch UCITS in UK and Europe

| By Fórmate a Fondo | 0 Comentarios

Prudential Investment Management, the $947 billion investment management business of Prudential Financial, announced plans to change its name to “PGIM,” reflecting its position as one of the world’s largest asset managers and its deep expertise across a broad set of asset classes. The new name, effective Jan. 4, 2016, coincides with the expansion of Prudential Investment Management’s businesses around the world.

The company is also expanding its range of solutions and productsto address growing demand, especially among global clients, for strategies that help them balance long-term risk and return objectives across diversified portfolios. In this direction, it is establishing PGIM Funds plc, a UCITS platform serving the U.K. and Europe (Undertakings for Collective Investments in Transferable Securities). The platform enables its businesses to build beyond existing fixed income UCITS to include a range of funds across asset classes offered to both institutional and individual investors.

Its businesses operate in 16 countries on five continents and offer a range of products across asset classes, including public and private fixed income, real estate debt and equity, and fundamental and quantitative public equities. The business operates through a unique multi-manager model, with each asset class managed by a dedicated leadership team, responsible for investment and business performance, while adhering to the same global standards for controls, risk management and compliance.
Several businesses will adopt the new name:

Prudential Fixed Income will use PGIM in markets outside of the United States where it currently uses the Pramerica name, beginning in January.
Prudential Mortgage Capital Company will be renamed PGIM Real Estate Finance globally in mid-2016.
Prudential Real Estate Investors will be renamed PGIM Real Estate globally in mid-2016.

Invesco Adds Two Eurozone Equity Funds to Their Offer

| By Gabriela Huerta | 0 Comentarios

Looking to meet continental European investors’ demand for focused exposure within the European equity market, Invesco launched two new funds. The new additions to their European investment platform are the Invesco Euro Structured Equity Fund and the Invesco Euro Equity Fund. Both funds are registered for sale in most of the countries in Continental Europe and offer investors two distinct approaches to tapping the potential of the Eurozone equity market.

The two funds follow the established investment process and philosophy of the Invesco Pan European Structured Equity Fund and the Invesco Pan European Equity Fund within a more focused investment universe, and can thus leverage on the success of these funds.

Commenting on the dual fund launch, Carsten Majer, Chief Marketing Officer Continental Europe, said: “The launch of these two funds continues to broaden and diversify our European investment capability. Given the current low-interest rate environment and with low and falling yields on fixed income products, we think that equity funds are likely to see continued strong demand, with Eurozone equities poised to profit from the continuing European economic recovery.”

The Invesco Euro Structured Equity Fund is managed by Alexander Uhlmann and Thorsten Paarmann. They can draw on the support of the Invesco Quantitative Strategies Team in Frankfurt whose investment philosophy is based on translating fundamental and behavioural finance insights into portfolios, through a systematic and structured process that combines these insights with rigorous control based on its proprietary risk model. The fund aims to offer investors the full long-term performance potential of Euro equities while aiming to control the volatility normally associated with equities.

Thorsten Paarmann commented: “In the current market environment, we believe that the case for low-volatility investing remains strong. The fund’s defensive approach to the market and intended low correlation with the benchmark and its competitors aims to offer an efficient risk/return profile and to help preserve wealth particularly during periods of economic stress.”

The Invesco Euro Equity Fund is managed by Jeff Taylor and the Invesco European Equities Team in Henley-on-Thames. The team’s long-term investment approach seeks to capitalise on valuation anomalies in the market, with the benchmark considered to be more of a point of reference as opposed to a determinant of investment decisions. By not favouring any one particular investment style, the fund can take advantage of what we believe is the best mix of individual risk/reward opportunities in the market, at any point in time in whatever stock, sector or country they are to be found.

Jeff Taylor commented: “While the fund can potentially offer attractive alpha in strong equity markets, its flexible approach and valuation focus aim to deliver attractive performance under most market conditions.”