Last week my colleague Erik Knutzen wrote about today’s “show-me-the-money” markets. It’s an important element in our current thinking so I am going to expand on it a little here. But I also want to examine why the very mixed fundamental data we have been seeing, which may not appear to support the recent rally in risk assets, may also be favorable for fixed income credit.
The improvement in sentiment since mid-February, when it looked like the perfect storm was descending on financial markets, has been huge. But is it justified by better fundamental data? That’s not obvious—when you add up the news flow on growth, profits, central bank policy, global production, consumption and jobs, you end up with a pretty mixed bag. A lot of the re-pricing of risk since mid-February was fuelled simply by improved sentiment. We managed to sail around the worst of the storm.
So the big question now is whether the economy can sustain that with a significant improvement in corporate cash flows, earnings and profits: “Show me the money!”
We are cautiously optimistic because we believe the conditions for these improvements are relatively easily met and may already be evident. Four months ago when we took a step back to review 2015, two big themes stood out: We could see that better earnings in the second half of this year would likely result if the dollar stopped going up and oil stopped going down. In our view, it is no coincidence that U.S. corporate cash flow peaked in the second quarter of 2014, when oil was north of $100 per barrel and the dollar was 20% cheaper than today, but both were about to embark on enormous trends. Arrest those two trends and you likely stop much of the rot in both U.S. high-yield cash flows and U.S large-cap earnings. In our view, stable oil prices should relieve the drag the energy sector is exerting on S&P 500 profit margins. Normally a sector that generates above-average profits, the current gap between its margins and those of the rest of the index has never been bigger.
This is why the dollar cheapening by 5% and oil settling above $35 per barrel is a big deal for corporate earnings in the latter half of this year. Combine that with the base effect of coming off a terrible year for profits, and the fact that things have moved so fast that analysts’ assumptions probably haven’t yet taken all this into account, and the coming months could deliver some notable positive surprises in cash flows and earnings.
How do we make the moves we are seeing in U.S. Treasuries fit this thesis? Yields have been falling since mid-March, and some might see that as bond market skepticism about the scenario priced into risky assets.
We don’t think that is the case. There are negative central bank rates in Europe and Japan, and the potential of another summer flare-up of the Greek debt problem is pushing core Eurozone yields ever lower. It would have been impossible for U.S. Treasury yields to escape that gravitational pull even if the Federal Reserve had not become more explicit about the influence of global factors on its policymaking and moved its rate-hike projections substantially lower in March. If U.S. rates do not seem to be in line with U.S. fundamentals at the moment, the more complete explanation is that they are in line with global fundamentals.
Bring all of this together and we think you create a very interesting environment for fixed income credit. These assets eventually enjoyed one of their best quarters for five years in the first quarter, because a mixed bag of data drove rates down and credit spreads tighter—a combination that we haven’t seen much of lately. A similar combination of improving U.S. earnings and the continued gravitational pull of global rates on U.S. Treasuries yields could extend those conditions further into 2016. The contrast with where we were at the beginning of this year, when the Fed looked set to hike rates against a backdrop of faltering global growth, couldn’t be starker.
That is why we are cautiously constructive on risk today. And if the economy starts to show us the money over the next few months, we may be ready to lift some of that caution.
With interest rates at an all-time low, investors are looking for alternatives to term deposits and traditional savings accounts. The fund of fund BL-Fund Selection 0-50 is suitable for those who want higher yields compared to a money-market investment while retaining the advantages of defensive investing. As the name indicates, the equity weighting of the fund cannot exceed 50%.
What are the aims of the fund?
To deliver stable and satisfactory long-term performance, to provide protection against volatile market conditions and to preserve capital in the medium term.
How is the fund managed?
The BL-Fund Selection 0-50 portfolio is both flexible and defensive. I invest in a selection of funds managed by internationally renowned fund managers with no regional, sector or currency restrictions. By investing in external funds, Banque de Luxembourg is able to focus on diversification and benefit from the expertise of good fund managers with solid management processes. No asset class is excluded; the portfolio can contain equities, bonds, commodities, alternative instruments and money-market investments in all currencies. The flexible allocation means I can invest up to 50% in equities. Generally speaking, however, the equity weighting does not exceed 25% of the portfolio. The risk index is 3 on a scale of 1-7.
What are the advantages?
This fund offers natural diversification in terms of both assets and strategies. It can form the basis of a comprehensive defensive wealth management approach.
Who is the target investor?
The BL-Fund Selection 0-50 fund is designed for careful investors who wish to benefit from active, non-benchmarked management that focuses on capital preservation over a 3-year period.
What type of assets does the fund invest in?
The portfolio consists of three main investment blocks: two traditional blocks and one ‘alternative’ block whose purpose is twofold.
Two traditional blocks: Equities, with a structural position in high-quality assets and segments that ‘outperform’ in the long term, with an emphasis on high-quality medium-value stocks. Bonds in niche segments, which generate higher returns than classic securities in today’s low-interest climate.
One ‘alternative’ block whose purpose is twofold: to generate regular returns, in all market conditions, that will offset low bond yields and to create neutral or negative correlation with riskier asset markets.
Schroders is continuing to strengthen its Fixed Income Global Multi-Sector team with the appointment of James Lindsay-Fynn who joins as a portfolio manager focusing on rates and currencies. James joins Schroders from Rogge Global Partners where he was a partner and a global macro portfolio manager specialising in interest rates and currencies for global portfolios.
During his six years at Rogge, James co-managed fixed income total return, global aggregate and government strategies. Other previous positions include absolute return portfolio manager at GAM, associate director at Evolution Securities, part of Investec Plc group of companies, and vice-president in fixed income at Bank of America Securities.
At Schroders, James will be joining the well-established Global Multi-Sector team in London and will report to Paul Grainger, Senior Portfolio Manager.
Philippe Lespinard, Co-Head of Fixed Income at Schroders said: “We are delighted to welcome James to our team. James has extensive investment experience and will further strengthen our investment proposition with his background of independent analysis and idea generation. James’ significant experience in the macro space will allow us to continue to grow this successful part of our business further.”
The Global Multi-Sector team is made up of six fund managers supported by eight fixed income analysts and strategist located across the globe.
Foto: byrev / Pixabay. Las ventas netas de fondos de inversión en 2015 fueron de casi 2 billones de euros
According to the latest international statistical release from the European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA), which includes the worldwide investment fund industry results for the fourth quarter of 2015 and the whole year, investment fund assets worldwide increased 5.9% during the fourth quarter of 2015 to EUR 36.94 trillion at end 2015. The year asset growth reached 12%. In U.S. dollar terms, worldwide investment fund assets totaled USD 40.2 trillion at end 2015.
During the fourth quarter, all long-term funds (excluding money market funds) recorded net inflows, fueled by the strong quarter equity funds had. They attracted net inflows of EUR 174 billion, up from EUR 78 billion in the third quarter while bond and balanced funds registered net sales of 32 and 120 billion euros, up from the outflows of EUR 21 billion in the previous quarter.
Money market funds registered net inflows of EUR 215 billion during the fourth quarter.
Overall in 2015, worldwide investment funds attracted net sales of almost 2 trillion euros (1,969 billion), up from EUR 1,532 billion in 2014.
At the end of 2015, assets of equity funds represented 40 percent and bond funds represented 20 percent of all investment fund assets worldwide. Of the remaining assets money market funds represented 13 percent and the asset share of balanced/mixed funds was 18 percent.
The market share of the ten largest countries/regions in the world market were the United States (48.4%), Europe (33.2%), Australia (3.8%), Japan (3.3%), China (3.1%), Canada (2.9%), Brazil (2.8%), Rep. of Korea (0.9%), India (0.4%) and South Africa (0.4%).
You can access the full report in the following link.
Adam Butler, Michael Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordilloare the executive team behind ReSolve Asset Management and the authors of the new book, Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Timesand Bad.
In their new book, Butler, Philbrick and Rodrigo, argue that picking stocks can only get you so far…true portfolio diversification cannot be achieved by picking a set of securities within a single asset class.
Given the current difficult market conditions, the traditional means of portfolio management simply won’t help investors achieve their financial objective. Static stock and bond portfolios, strategic asset allocation, and buy-and-hold might work during certain market regimes, but if they didn’t get the job done over the last 15 years. ReSolve Asset management is expecting 20 more years of the same, investors have to make some real changes.
Adaptive Asset Allocation presents a framework that addresses these major challenges, emphasizing the importance of an agile, globally-diversified portfolio:
Scrutinizes the relationship between portfolio volatility and retirement income.
Details the historic divergence between economic reality and investor behavior.
Demonstrates a model for predicting long-term returns on the basis of current valuations.
Examines the difference between Strategic Asset Allocation, Tactical Asset Allocation, and Dynamic Asset Allocation.
Adopts an investment framework for stability, growth, and maximum income.
An optimized portfolio must be structured in a way that allows a quick response to changes in asset class risks and relationships, and the flexibility to continually adapt to market changes. To execute such an ambitious strategy, it is essential to have a strong grasp of foundational wealth management concepts, a reliable system of forecasting, and a clear understanding of the merits of individual investment methods.
“The portfolio management industry is undergoing a revolution analogous to the shift that occurred after Markowitz introduced his modern portfolio theory in 1967. Managers who embrace the new methods will increasingly dominate traditional managers, and those who fail to adapt will, inevitably, face extinction,” assert the authors.
Nigel Green. El escándalo de los #panamapapers no representa a la industria offshore
The Panama Papers is a global investigation into the sprawling industry of offshore companies. According to the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ), which conducted the investigation of more than 11 million leaked files, “the investigation exposes a cast of characters who use offshore companies to facilitate bribery, arms deals, tax evasion, financial fraud and drug trafficking.” However the allegations made in the Panama Papers case are not representative of the international financial services industry, affirms the boss of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.
According to Nigel Green, founder and chief executive of deVere Group, the leaked documents from Panamanian law firm, Mossack Fonseca suggest there might have been tax evasion on a grand scale, but in is opinion, those allegations are not representative of today’s wider international financial services industry. “The overwhelming majority of the offshore sector only provides services that are fully compliant and legal and they are used by law-abiding clients, who are simply looking for typically better returns, more investment options and greater flexibility.”
He believes that the idea of a ‘tax haven’, in the traditional sense of the phrase, is now somewhat outdated. “In today’s world, in which financial information is being automatically exchanged with tax authorities globally, it is almost impossible to hide money. No longer can people stash assets on ‘treasure islands’ and not expect to be caught.” Green mentions that in his experience working with expatriates and international investors, who have generally more transient lifestyles, “offshore accounts are preferable simply for convenience. They offer centralised, safe, flexible and international access to their funds no matter where they live and no matter to which country the individual moves to in the future. In addition, they offer a wide choice of multicurrency savings and investment solutions.”
Amongst the benefits of offshore financial centres, Green highlights that they allow those who qualify to do so, to use legal, bona fide international investment products to form part of a robust and sensible financial planning strategy. As well as that they allow companies to avoid getting taxed twice on the same income and that they offer legitimate financial refuge for those in countries where there is economic and political turmoil, such as extremely volatile currency and confiscation of assets.
Green claims that the current scandal is an opportunity “to further enhance the effectiveness and credibility of these international financial centres and the sector. This is especially important as the industry is set to grow exponentially in the coming years as individuals and companies become ever more globalized.”
Mercer Advisors and Kanaly Trust last week announced that they have reached a definitive agreement to merge. Upon the merger completion, the combined company will manage assets exceeding $8 billion making it one of the largest independent wealth managers in the United States. Terms of the private transaction were not disclosed.
The combined company will be led by David H. Barton, Chief Executive Officer of Mercer Advisors. Mercer Advisors was acquired by Genstar Capital, a private equity firm, last year. Kanaly Trust is owned by Lovell Minnick Partners, a private equity firm that invests in the financial and related business services sectors, which will retain a stake in the combined company.
Mercer Advisors is a total wealth management firm that provides fee-only comprehensive investment management, financial planning, family office services, retirement benefits and distribution planning, estate planning, and tax management services. Based in Santa Barbara, Mercer has over $6 billion in assets under management and more than 5,000 clients.
Kanaly Trust provides comprehensive wealth management and financial planning and trust/estate services to families, individuals, and estates. The Houston-based company manages and advises on assets totaling over $2 billion on behalf of more than 500 families, and serves as the trustee or executor for estates totaling more than $2.5 billion.
“This transaction brings together two great companies and creates a strong partnership of people who have the benefit of a stronger platform from which to offer expanded services with the personal and customized service clients demand,” said Barton. “Genstar has been instrumental in helping us rapidly grow our company, and we are well-positioned to build on our momentum. Paramount in Kanaly Trust’s decision to join Mercer Advisors was our shared commitment to the highest level of service, which makes this combination such a great fit.”
“The merger with Kanaly Trust is a significant step forward towards scaling a national wealth management firm to a broader base of sophisticated clients,” said Anthony J. Salewski, a Managing Director at Genstar. “This transaction combines the complementary resources of two important players, and we are excited about this transformative partnership. We are pleased with Mercer Advisors’ progress, led by Dave, and we plan to continue to invest in and support the company as it continues to build its presence in the wealth management sector.”
“This merger brings together two world-class wealth management firms, which will allow us to expand client resources beyond the high-levels we have today,” noted Drew Kanaly, Chairman of Kanaly Trust. “Our extensive experience working with high-net-worth entrepreneurs and executives, and family offices is highly complementary to Mercer Advisors, and this partnership will allow us to provide those services on a national level.”
“The talented Kanaly Trust team remains focused on providing high touch, highly personalized financial advice and customized solutions, which we believe will continue to be in high demand among clients,” said James E. Minnick, Co-Chairman of Lovell Minnick Partners. “We look forward to our continued involvement and support in working with Mercer and Kanaly in growing the combined company.”
The merger is subject to customary regulatory approval.
Investors domiciled in Europe and Asia are shifting their attention in regards to sector allocation says trendscout, a service offered by fundinfo that measures fund interest based on online views of their 16+ million fund documents database.
According the their latest insight, Technology and HealthCare had attracted a lot of interest for quite some time, but the tide has recently turned. HealthCare has been losing steam since last fall, and Technology has corrected from its year-end rally. Investor’s focus is now shifting towards depressed cyclical sectors like Gold Mining and even towards Physical Gold ETFs:
Other trendscout highlights include that amongst the categories losing attention are Equity Europe, Equity Japan and Fixed Income Relative Value, while Equity World, Flexible Allocation and Equity Gold Mining are gaining attention with the iShares Core and Comstage driving interest for Equity World.
Other funds gaining attention according to trendscout are:
Foto: Mike Beales
. Julius Baer aumenta su participación en Kairos en un 60,1%, hasta alcanzar el 80%
Julius Baer yesterday announced that the transaction to acquire an additional stake of 60.1% inKairos Investment Management for EUR 276 million (US$ 314,51 million) was completed on 1 April 2016, bringing the Group’s total ownership of Kairos to 80%.
Julius Baer first announced the transaction to increase its stake in Kairos by acquiring an additional 60.1% of the Milan-based companyin November 2015, following its initial purchase of 19.9% in 2013, and has since then received the relevant regulatory approvals.
The executive management of Kairos will remain unchanged and the transaction will significantly reinforce Julius Baer’s and Kairos’ long-term position in Italy and further fuel Kairos’ ambitious growth trajectory.
Kairos was established as a partnership in 1999 and today employs a total staff of over 150. The company is specialized in wealth and asset management, including independent best-in-class investment solutions and advice. As at 31 December 2015, Kairos’ assets under management had reached over EUR 8 billion (US$ 9,12 billion), up from approximately EUR 4 billion (US$ 4,56) billion when Julius Baer and Kairos started their strategic partnership in 2013.
The old adage says that “time in the market” is more important than “timing the market.” Anyone who needed a reminder of that truth got it in spades during the first quarter of 2016. Who would have thought, on the dark morning of February 12 with the S&P 500 Index down more than 10%, that U.S. equities would finish the quarter up 0.8%?
Only the very brave, or the very foolish. And that’s the point of the adage: As long as you remain convinced that underlying economic fundamentals have not changed, trying to call the bottom of a volatile market is just as misguided as panic selling into tumbling prices. The “W-shaped” market kicked off by China’s devaluation last August is the perfect exhibit to back up our philosophy of maintaining a long-term view, putting the headlines into perspective, staying diversified and looking for opportunities to buy on volatility.
Things were never as dark as they seemed on February 12, and despite the arrival of daylight saving time they are probably not as bright as they seem today. Purchasing Managers’ Indices, a key measure of industrial activity, have been positive but not exciting; GDP expectations have not improved meaningfully; deflation fears still darken Europe and Japan; and China is still muddling through. High-profile defaults in the energy and mining sectors appear priced in but will likely cause shocks when they materialize, nonetheless. U.S. corporate earnings are still struggling—when the first profits estimates for Q1 came in a week ago they revealed a drop of almost 12% year-over-year, which would be the biggest decline since the depths of the financial crisis.
Markets show signs that they recognize this. For sure, there have been extraordinary rallies in some unloved places. The Brazilian stock market is up 18% on the year, and more than 25% since its mid-February lows. The Brazilian real is up almost 9%. Emerging market currencies as a whole enjoyed one of their strongest rallies ever in March.
After falling precipitously, the price of oil has recovered to finish the quarter near where it began the year; this, in our view, should reduce the uncertainty around the deflationary impulse and the distress levels in the wider economy. There has even been some outperformance of value over growth stocks in the U.S. If sustained, that would represent a bullish reversal of a multiyear trend, which may suggest that investors expect a return to more broad-based economic growth and no longer feel compelled to pay a premium for the most visible earnings.
But not everything fits this script. Gold, considered by many a safe haven asset, has hung on to most of the 20% gain it made during the New Year turmoil. So far, value is leading growth only by a small margin, and the underperformance of smaller companies this year is not characteristic of a full-throttle rally. Where growth and deflation concerns are most acute, stock markets have not drawn the same “W” as they have in the U.S.: Germany is down 6% year-to-date, and both Japan and China are down more than 10% year-to-date.
Market participants are watching the fundamentals and saying, “show me the money.” They know the next leg up in equity market valuations depends upon improving profits in the second half of the year, and while we believe they are likely to get this after the recent weakness, they need more reassurance that the headwinds of the falling oil price and the rising dollar have eased. They want to see clearer evidence that the “Third Arrow” of Abenomics can translate into real economic results. They want to see some inflation in Europe. They want more certainty that China is not planning another surprise currency devaluation.
We’d like further evidence of stabilization and improvement in these areas before we add aggressively to risk, too—but we are also prepared to hold fast to our steady-but-cautious outlook when markets have their next tantrum, as they inevitably will. We know that “time in the market” is critical, because it is often hard to see the turn of the cycle until it is behind you.
Column by Erik L. Knutzen, featured on Neuberger Berman’s CIO insight
