Another Good Month for Wall Street Despite the Banking Turmoil
| By Cecilia Prieto | 0 Comentarios

Stocks moved slightly higher in April as better-than-expected Q1 earnings, despite a lower bar, helped temper recession fears for now. Consumers remained resilient notwithstanding persistent inflation and other economic headwinds. Some positive themes from Q1 earnings season included better-than-feared regional bank results, strong mega-cap tech results, as well as better trends around cost controls, inventories and supply chain.
While there was some stability seen during the month for regional banks, the month ended with regulators seizing First Republic Bank (FRC) and striking a deal to sell most of its operations to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM). The failure of First Republic Bank was more of a delayed reaction to the turmoil caused in March rather than a new phase in the global banking crisis. Overall, First Republic Bank will now go down as the second largest U.S. bank (by assets) to collapse after Washington Mutual, which failed during the financial crisis of 2008.
The Federal Reserve made another 0.25% rate hike during the latest FOMC meeting on May 3rd. March’s economic data, which was reported in April, showed signs of inflation decelerating but remaining well above the Fed’s target. The minutes from the Fed’s last meeting suggested a “mild recession” was possible and that the Fed’s focus is on “unacceptably high inflation”. Paradoxically, First Republic’s collapse helped keep the Fed on track with its rate hike agenda in May.
M&A performance in April was mixed, as most deals progressed towards closing, while other deals experienced setbacks. Most notably, Activision’s $74 billion acquisition by Microsoft was rejected by the U.K. Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) which claimed the acquisition would give Microsoft a dominant position in the nascent cloud gaming market. Microsoft made numerous assurances to the CMA to assuage its concerns, including a commitment to make current and future Activision titles available on competing cloud gaming services. Microsoft and Activision are appealing the CMA’s decision. Despite this, other deals did close in April, including the $6 billion cash and stock acquisition of gold miner Yamana by Pan American Silver and Agnico Eagle Mines, as well as the $2 billion acquisition of diabetes drugmaker Provention Bio by Sanofi. New deals announced in April, include Emerson Electric’s acquisition of National Instruments for $60 cash per share, or $8 billion, and Merck’s acquisition of Prometheus Biosciences for $200 cash per share, or about $10 billion.
The convertible market declined slightly in April, as fears of a recession, continued rising interest rates and cautious guidance weighed on markets. Issuance continued to trickle in, but April is typically a slow month in the convertible primary market as companies announce earnings. We have continued to see companies buying back convertibles in a transaction that is accretive to earnings and positive for the credit. This dynamic has helped some convertible securities.
The current opportunity in convertibles continues to come from fixed income equivalent issues that are trading at attractive yields to maturity in excess of our long term expected return. These are often convertibles within a few years of maturity that we expect to accrete to par over that time. While this is not the profile we have focused on historically, we find it to be attractive for the fund in this environment. These convertibles should have limited downside from here and we expect them to outperform equities in a flat, down, or volatile market.









