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One in Five Pension Funds Lacks Liquidity in Adverse Scenarios

Over the past decade, pension funds have increased their investments in private assets to enhance returns through the illiquidity premium. However, they are now reconsidering the potential liquidity risks associated with this strategy. According to a new global survey conducted by Ortec Finance, a specialist provider of risk and return management solutions for pension funds, nearly 18% of pension funds report not having enough liquidity to withstand adverse scenarios.

The study, conducted in the United Kingdom, the United States, the Netherlands, Canada, and the Nordic countries, surveyed senior executives from pension funds managing a total of $1.451 trillion in assets. It found that, in addition to the 18% reporting insufficient liquidity, another 62% believe they have enough liquidity for most scenarios but acknowledge that extreme situations could pose challenges. In contrast, only 20% say they have no liquidity concerns.

Fund managers identify both short- and long-term risks, with long-term liquidity risk being the primary concern among respondents. About 60% cite this as the main risk facing the funds they manage, while 25% consider short-term liquidity risk to be the most significant. Only 15% believe that short- and long-term risks are roughly equal.

The increase in exposure to private assets is part of the reason behind liquidity concerns, particularly among defined benefit (DB) pension schemes. Among the managers surveyed, 80% reported that unfunded commitment risk represents either a significant or moderate threat to the DB pension industry over the next three years. Overall, 25% of managers believe that unfunded commitments beyond the control of pension portfolio managers pose a significant risk, while 19% do not consider it a risk.

Despite these liquidity concerns, 58% of respondents state that liquidity is already well managed, and 28% believe other risks are more pressing. Meanwhile, 10% consider liquidity risk a priority, while 4% say it is not a major concern.

“Our study highlights the liquidity challenges facing pension funds, particularly given the unpredictability of projecting unfunded commitments and capital calls. To address this issue comprehens

Pension Funds Increase Private Asset Exposure but Face Growing Liquidity Concerns

The study, conducted in the United Kingdom, the United States, the Netherlands, Canada, and the Nordic countries, surveyed senior executives from pension funds managing a total of $1.451 trillion in assets. It found that, in addition to the 18% reporting insufficient liquidity, another 62% believe they have enough liquidity for most scenarios but acknowledge that extreme situations could pose challenges. In contrast, only 20% say they have no liquidity concerns.

The increase in exposure to private assets is part of the reason behind liquidity concerns, particularly among defined benefit (DB) pension schemes. Among the managers surveyed, 80% reported that unfunded commitment risk represents either a significant or moderate threat to the DB pension industry over the next three years. Overall, 25% of managers believe that unfunded commitments beyond the control of pension portfolio managers pose a significant risk, while 19% do not consider it a risk.

“Our study highlights the liquidity challenges facing pension funds, particularly given the unpredictability of projecting unfunded commitments and capital calls. To address this issue comprehensively, funds should focus on scenario modeling and stress testing. Modeling capital calls and private asset distributions can help funds understand their potential liquidity constraints in worst-case scenarios over the next five, ten, or twenty years,” says Marnix Engels, Managing Director of Global Pension Risk at Ortec Finance.

Edouard Carmignac: “Donald Trump Can Be Criticized, but We Must Acknowledge That He Has a Formidable Instinct”

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Edouard Carmignac and Trump’s economic instinct — Photo: Cecilia Prieto

Edouard Carmignac had the opportunity to have lunch with the now-president Donald Trump 20 years ago. It was a business lunch where the founder, president, and CIO of Carmignac Gestion gained a good understanding of the character of the then-businessman, which has helped him assess how his second, non-consecutive term as U.S. president might unfold: “Donald Trump, for his flaws, can be criticized, but we must acknowledge that he has a formidable instinct. In a world seeking growth but that is globalized and where traditional models no longer work, his approach has an impact.” Although the president and CIO admitted that some of Trump‘s promises “include extreme proposals that may sometimes seem radical,” he also stated that “boldness and leadership are needed because the old paradigms are no longer sustainable.”

These remarks were made by Carmignac at the annual forum organized by his firm in Paris for clients and the media, which this year also marked the 35th anniversary of the firm and its flagship fund, Carmignac Patrimoine.

One of the major investment-related topics Edouard Carmignac addressed in his speech was the shift in the global political order, where he was particularly critical of countries with left-wing governments: “The classic redistribution models, which worked well in the past, are now exhausted. Resources cannot continue to be redistributed if there is no way to generate them. That is why European models face resistance and need to reinvent themselves with efficient governance.” However, despite these challenges, Carmignac maintained an optimistic outlook, asserting that “there is potential” for greater growth in Europe, and expressed confidence that European governments would gradually shift towards more conservative and right-wing positions, beginning with Germany after the elections scheduled for February.

Carmignac cited another example of a global leader, Javier Milei, with whom he had a one-hour meeting. Among the topics they discussed were economics and their shared views on the Austrian School of Economics. “I was impressed by his intelligence and his knowledge of economics. He has an unwavering determination to change Argentina and move it forward, which will have an impact not only on his country but also on South America,” Carmignac emphasized.

Among the investment themes for 2025 that Carmignac Gestion is monitoring, Edouard Carmignac highlighted that “a technological revolution is underway,” though he preferred to call it “augmented intelligence” rather than artificial intelligence. “We are witnessing a transformation that is just beginning, and those who invest in it will find great opportunities.” Regarding cryptocurrencies, he took a more cautious stance, instead emphasizing the importance of “continuing to invest in projects with real value and long-term sustainability.”

Outlook for 2025

Raphaël Gallardo, chief economist at Carmignac Gestion, provided a more detailed and specific analysis of key themes the firm is monitoring this year, positioning their funds accordingly. He began by discussing the current situation in the U.S., particularly the difficult paradox facing the new Trump administration, which has promised continued economic growth while avoiding inflationary pressures.

Specifically, Gallardo identified three factors affecting U.S. growth: the high deficit (above 6%), which will constrain budget decisions; the sustainability of the wealth effect experienced by households in recent years, driven by rising financial asset prices, which Gallardo questioned; and, related to the previous two, the evolution of interest rates, which he believes “will determine the budgetary margin,” as each movement in the cost of money directly impacts stock market valuations and real estate assets while also absorbing up to 20% of U.S. household incomes.

According to the chief economist, Trump has four key levers to navigate this challenge: reducing public spending through the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk; promoting deregulation, particularly in artificial intelligence; implementing tariffs; and lowering oil prices by flooding the market with more barrels, which would require negotiations with Saudi Arabia and even Russian authorities, potentially leading to a resolution of the war in Ukraine.

On the other side of the world, Gallardo discussed China’s “obsession with trade surpluses,” arguing that its export figures are inflated due to the country ramping up shipments in 2024 ahead of new U.S. tariffs. Gallardo believes Xi Jinping‘s government is currently at an “impasse,” as it attempts to mitigate the negative impact of the real estate sector on the economy while trying to “set a consumption floor without altering the economic model.”

Regarding a potential new trade war between the U.S. and China, Gallardo sees multiple factors at play. He anticipates another shift in trade rules between the two nations—though he notes that Trump, unlike in 2018, is not being as aggressive with tariffs this time. He also cites other influences, such as the war in Ukraine and the ongoing fentanyl trade between the two countries.

Finally, Gallardo argues that the EU can play a key role in this historic rivalry in three ways: first, by becoming a better client for the U.S., particularly by increasing demand for American goods and services in the defense and gas sectors; second, by coordinating with the U.S. to decouple China’s technological advancement, creating a competitive advantage; and third, by leveraging deregulation within Europe to impact U.S. companies, such as enforcing stricter regulations on digital giants.

UCITS Equity Funds vs. Their ETF Version: How to Properly Compare Returns?

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UCITS funds and ETF performance — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

The growth of the ETF segment in the European fund market has raised a new question: Is a simple average sufficient to compare the sectoral performance of active versus passive UCITS equity funds? This is the question that the European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA) has sought to answer in its latest edition of Market Insights, titled “The Sectoral Performance of Active and Passive UCITS: Is a Simple Measure Enough?”

Although past performance does not guarantee future returns, recent literature has shown that funds with better historical performance attract more capital inflows. In recent years, passive funds have gained popularity due to their lower costs and their tendency to report higher average net returns than active funds. “However, the debate over which group of funds delivers better performance is more complex than it seems,” EFAMA acknowledges.

According to EFAMA, fund performance is typically reported by showing a simple or weighted average of the gross or net returns of all funds within a given category. “This is generally measured within a broad fund category, such as all active or passive funds, or the total universe of funds. This approach does not take into account the diversity of funds in terms of issuers, types of securities, geographical exposure, currency, and industry sectors, and consequently, the diversity in fund performance,” EFAMA explains.

To address this, EFAMA analysts have compared the net performance of different categories of UCITS equity funds over the past ten years (2014–2023). The analysis shows that in 2023, the average net return of active UCITS equity funds was 13.1%, while that of passive UCITS equity funds reached 16.7%, “suggesting that passive UCITS outperformed,” EFAMA states in its report.

When analyzing the distribution of average annual net returns of active and passive UCITS equity funds in 2023, it is observed that two years ago, in 2023, many active funds achieved returns as strong as passive funds, while many passive funds had lower returns than active ones. According to EFAMA, “the observed returns depend on various fund characteristics, such as the industry sector or geographical exposure, regardless of whether a fund is active or passive.”

Key Findings

“Our analysis reveals significant differences in the average net performance of sectoral equity funds, with neither active nor passive funds consistently outperforming the other,” says Vera Jotanovic, Senior Economist at EFAMA.

Meanwhile, Bernard Delbecque, Senior Director at EFAMA, explains that given the high diversity among investment funds, “retail investors should seek professional advice before allocating their savings to specific equity funds, ensuring that their choices align with their individual investment goals and preferences.”

In this regard, one of the main conclusions reached is that “significant differences in net performance are observed among UCITS equity funds across various industry sectors, for both active and passive funds.”

Additionally, it is concluded that while passive equity funds generally outperform active equity funds when comparing net returns across the entire universe of equity funds, this pattern does not consistently hold across all sectors.

It is also extrapolated that some active funds outperform passive funds, and vice versa, depending on the industry sector, the year, and the time horizon, “demonstrating that no category consistently delivers superior performance,” EFAMA notes. Finally, the report warns that its findings remain robust even after accounting for return volatility.

U.S. Investors Expect Returns of 6.4% for This Year

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U.S. investors and expected returns — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

According to Vanguard’s Investor Pulse survey, American investors continue to maintain a predominantly positive outlook for the new year, following a clearly optimistic 2024. In fact, they expect a market return of 6.4% in 2025 and 7.6% over 10 years, and they also indicate that the U.S. GDP will grow by 4%. These positive forecasts coexist with a certain sense of economic uncertainty, which translates into inflation expectations of 3.2% and a more moderate short-term GDP growth.

In the history of this survey, Vanguard notes that 2024 was the most optimistic year for investors. Throughout last year, investors’ return expectations for the next 12 months remained above 6%, reflecting a high and sustained level of optimism. Looking ahead to 2025, the survey shows that investors continue with this level of optimism and currently expect the market to deliver a 6.4% return. For the next 10 years, investors expect the average annual market return to be 7%.

“Investor optimism reached a new level of stability in 2024 and remained there throughout the year. However, it seems that investors have adjusted their short-term economic outlook in the last few months of 2024. This could reflect people’s concerns about growth resulting from the increasing complexity of the current economic environment,” notes Xiao Xu, an analyst at Vanguard Investment Strategy Group.

U.S. Economy

A striking conclusion is that investors’ expectations for average GDP growth in the U.S. over the next three years softened throughout 2024, despite the strong economic growth recorded during the year. According to the survey, although growth expectations remain in a fairly optimistic range, the rebound from the June 2022 low may have come to an end. Specifically, the GDP growth forecast for the next 10 years remains high at 4%.

Lastly, inflation expectations throughout 2024 hovered around 3%, a level above the Fed’s 2% policy target but consistent with overall inflation during the year, according to Vanguard. With a reported uptick in inflation in recent months, the median inflation expectation rose by 0.2% at the end of 2024, meaning investors expect inflation to be 3.2% in 2025.

“Investors remain cautiously optimistic about the stock market and the economy heading into 2025. They are bullish on growth but bearish on inflation,” says Andy Reed, head of Investor Behavior Analysis at Vanguard.

Do investors believe the Fed will be able to bring inflation down to its 2% target by the end of 2025? Since June 2024, we have asked survey participants to estimate the likelihood of different inflation scenarios in the U.S. over the next 12 months. In the second half of 2024, investors increasingly believed that inflation would remain above the 2% target, with their probability assessment rising from 65% in August to 70% in December.

In December 2024, investors estimated a 15% probability that inflation would exceed 6% within 12 months, significantly higher than the 9% probability they had projected back in August. Similar to professional forecasts, including Vanguard’s economic and market outlook, uncertainty surrounding potential trade policies may be a key factor on many investors’ minds.

Duration, Corporate Bonds, and High Yield: The View of Active Fixed Income Managers

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Corporate bonds and high-yield strategies — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

According to Alessandro Tentori, CIO for Europe at AXA Investment Managers, two factors will drive fixed income performance this year: “On one hand, a relatively contained duration management approach, with a defensive stance on U.S. bonds and a hint of optimism on European bonds; and on the other hand, a strategy inclined toward taking credit risks, including high yield, especially in the U.S. market, supported by both macroeconomic analysis and corporate balance sheets.”

At Neuberger Berman, they believe that after several years in which fixed income markets were primarily driven by central bank policies, this year attention will likely shift more toward fiscal actions: the policy and revenue decisions of the new Trump administration, as well as those of other governments that are redirecting their priorities or facing financial pressures.

“Since the arrival of COVID-19, investors have largely focused on central banks for clues about fixed income performance—from the implementation of zero-rate policies and financial liquidity provisions to sustain the global economy during the pandemic, to the adjustments made to counter rising inflation in 2021 and 2022, and the widely anticipated start of the current monetary easing cycle. With inflation continuing to decline, we are entering a period of gradual central bank rate cuts,” explains Neuberger Berman’s market outlook report.

Key Investment Ideas

Experts at Wellington Management see this as a moment to take advantage of bond market divergence. They acknowledge that caution will set the tone for 2025, a year in which sovereign bond yields could help investors offset potential interest rate volatility. “High levels of nominal growth worldwide provide a starting point that should cushion the impact of a potential global economic slowdown. At this moment, we do not foresee a recession or, consequently, an increase in rating downgrades and defaults. We also believe that high-yield securities currently offer adequate compensation for investors amid rising volatility. However, the exception to this rule is the long end of the yield curve, where longer-maturity bonds are struggling due to supply dynamics, inflation expectations, and higher nominal growth,” they explain.

Tentori also notes that in 2025, investors should not only consider the effects of duration, credit, and currency risk but also the trajectory of monetary policy. “This has been a key factor in fixed income portfolio construction, particularly during the period of Quantitative Easing. It could once again prove crucial to performance in the near future, especially amid policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve,” he says.

Aegon AM focuses on asset-backed securities (ABS), arguing that in an environment driven by sentiment and fundamentals, ABS should be favored. “Falling interest rates are positive from a fundamental perspective, though they may reduce the coupon of floating-rate products like ABS. However, growth and inflation expectations have undergone significant shifts over the past two years, as have interest rate outlooks in many markets. ABS investors are less affected by changes in interest rate expectations since the carry of these instruments depends primarily on the short end of the yield curve. As curves remain inverted, the current yield is about 80–90 basis points higher than the yield to maturity,” they argue.

A segment that Felipe Villarroel, partner and portfolio manager at Vontobel, finds particularly attractive for portfolios this year is corporate credit. “One of the main reasons we believe credit will continue to outperform sovereign debt in the medium term is corporate fundamentals. Everyone knows that corporate bond spreads are tight, and we expect some volatility over the next 12 months. However, if the macroeconomic outlook remains reasonable (i.e., no recession) and corporate finances stay strong, we see no clear reason to expect a significant increase in defaults,” Villarroel argues.

The Strength of High Yield

After high-yield bonds outperformed investment-grade bonds in 2024, managers seem to continue favoring them. According to Bloomberg data, higher-yielding assets—such as high-yield bonds, leveraged loans, and emerging market hard currency debt—outperformed investment-grade bonds for the fourth consecutive year. Specifically, U.S. cash high-yield bonds posted an 8.19% return, compared to 1.25% for investment-grade bonds.

In this regard, analysts at Loomis Sayles, an affiliate of Natixis IM, note that the fundamental outlook remains solid, supported by a positive earnings environment and a resilient U.S. economy. “Currently, the high-yield risk premium is at the narrowest end of its historical range, even considering the generally positive economic backdrop. The good news is that we anticipate relatively moderate credit losses this year, with defaults likely to stay around 3%. Overall, we believe high-yield bonds will remain an attractive place for carry, though investors should temper their total return expectations,” they argue.

Invesco Launches an Equal Weight U.S. Equity ETF with a Synthetic Structure

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Invesco and synthetic ETFs — Wikimedia Commons

Invesco expands its product range with the launch of the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Swap UCITS ETF, a fund designed to replicate the performance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index using a synthetic structure. According to the asset manager, the benchmark index is built from the S&P 500 Index, assigning the same weight to each company in the index instead of the standard method of weighting companies by market capitalization.

“This is the world’s first Equal Weight ETF with synthetic replication. For investors seeking exposure to the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, Invesco now offers both physical and swap-based ETFs, allowing investors to choose their preferred replication method,” the firm stated.

According to Invesco, demand for Equal Weight strategies has continued to rise since Mega Cap stock prices hit multi-decade highs and began to appear overvalued. This trend has been particularly noticeable in U.S. equities, where S&P 500 Equal Weight ETFs have attracted more than $10 billion in net inflows since July 2024. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 Index still represent 37% of market capitalization, keeping concentration at historically high levels.

Unlike existing products in the market, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Swap UCITS ETF aims to replicate the performance of the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index through swap-based replication. The ETF will hold a basket of high-quality stocks and achieve index returns through swap agreements with major financial institutions. These swap counterparties will pay the ETF the index return, minus an agreed fee, in exchange for the returns of the ETF’s held stock basket.

Following this launch, Laure Peyranne, Head of ETFs Iberia, LatAm & US Offshore at Invesco, stated: “We are excited to start the new year with an ETF that combines two areas of Invesco’s expertise. We are a global leader in equal-weighted equity exposures, a rapidly expanding area whose demand surged significantly in 2024 and which we now offer through our solid and highly efficient swap-based structure, developed over 15 years ago. We have the world’s largest synthetic ETF, and now investors can benefit from the same advantages for their exposure to the S&P 500 Equal Weight.”

Peyranne also noted that when a Europe-domiciled ETF uses synthetic replication on certain core U.S. indices, it is not required to pay taxes on dividends received.

“This allows us to negotiate better terms with our swap counterparties, including receiving the gross return of the index, which is an advantage over a physically replicated ETF that typically pays a 15% to 30% tax on dividends. In the case of the S&P 500 Equal Weight, given current dividend levels, this translates to an approximate 20 basis point improvement,” she explained.

Invesco has committed to the swap-based replication model, maintaining an uninterrupted track record of over 15 years and accumulating more than $65 billion in assets across its swap-based ETF range. Its product lineup includes the Invesco S&P 500 UCITS ETF, which, at $39 billion, is the largest swap-based ETF in the world, according to the company.

This latest launch also expands the firm’s Equal Weight offering by adding the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Swap UCITS ETF to its existing Invesco Nasdaq-100 Equal Weight UCITS ETF and Invesco MSCI World Equal Weight UCITS ETF.

Laura González to Join Apollo Global Wealth in May

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Laura González y Apollo Global Management — LinkedIn

Apollo Global Management has appointed Laura González as Managing Director of its global wealth business for US Offshore and Latin America, sources at the firm confirmed to Funds Society.

González, currently Head of Allfunds for the Americas (U.S. and LatAm), will take on her new role in May. With over 13 years at Allfunds, she initially oversaw Iberia and Latin America before being promoted to Head of the Americas in 2022, according to her LinkedIn profile.

Apollo, a firm specializing in alternative investments, has set “ambitious goals” of reaching $150 billion by 2029, a target announced during its Investor Day in October 2024.

For Apollo, González is a seasoned professional who will play a crucial role in expanding the firm’s ability to serve these markets.

“Expanding our Global Wealth business is a key priority for Apollo as we respond to growing investor demand for private market solutions that offer greater diversification beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio model. We are committed to providing institutional-quality offerings tailored to the distinct needs of individual and wealth investors,” said Stephanie Drescher, Partner and Chief Client & Product Development Officer at Apollo, in a statement accessed by Funds Society.

Apollo’s Global Wealth unit aims to deliver a comprehensive range of alternative investment solutions across asset classes such as credit, equity, and real assets, structured in ways that prioritize the needs of end investors, the firm added.

Ida Liu Announces Her Departure from Citi Private Banking

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Ida Liu and Citi Private Banking — LinkedIn

Citi will lose its Global Head of Private Banking, Ida Liu, as the executive announced in a LinkedIn post.

“After nearly two decades at Citi, including the privilege of serving as Global Head of Citi Private Bank, I have made the decision to leave the firm and embark on the next chapter of my professional journey,” Liu posted on LinkedIn.

The expert, with more than 25 years of experience, joined Citi in 2007, where she held various positions until her most recent role as Global Head of Private Banking, according to her LinkedIn profile.

“Great careers are defined by embracing new challenges and opportunities, and this is the right time to leverage my global experience, leadership expertise, and passion for growth in bold and exciting new ways,” added the executive of the U.S. bank.

In addition to Citi, Liu worked at Merrill Lynch (1999-2004) and Vivienne Tam (2004-2007).

Tech Companies Tremble at the Potential of China’s DeepSeek Generative AI

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DeepSeek y su impacto en tecnológicas — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

The week has begun with the tech sector reeling. On Monday, Nvidia led a market slump—dropping as much as 17%—triggered by the strong performance of the low-cost generative AI assistant developed by Chinese company DeepSeek. According to experts, the emergence of a potentially more efficient approach to AI processing—reducing model training costs by 86%—raises questions about the necessity of the billions of dollars planned for infrastructure and intellectual property investment.

As a result, the S&P 500 index dropped 1.5%, and Nvidia‘s decline—the largest single-day market capitalization loss for the company at $589 billion—dragged the Nasdaq Composite down 3.1%. “The emergence of the new competitor has primarily impacted the entire data center value chain. This includes chip manufacturing equipment makers like ASML (-7.2%), high-performance chip manufacturers (Nvidia and Broadcom (-17.4%)), as well as companies specializing in energy infrastructure like Schneider Electric (-9.6%) or the real estate side of data centers like Digital Realty (-8.7%),” explain analysts at Banca March.

What explains these movements? In recent days, the generative AI assistant developed by DeepSeek has become the most downloaded app for iPhone, surpassing the popular ChatGPT application from OpenAI. Nvidia‘s drop has been the most visible consequence of this shift, driven by fears about the impact DeepSeek could have on the demand for high-end microchips.

“DeepSeek could be a seismic shift for the AI industry. If its advancements hold true, model training costs would drastically decrease, changing the game for everyone,” says Víctor Alvargonzález, founder of Nextep Finance. In his view, one of the main reasons behind Wall Street’s recent sell-off—particularly Nvidia‘s worst-ever trading session in U.S. stock market history—is DeepSeek‘s promise to reduce algorithm training costs. Estimates suggest that training costs could drop from the current $50 million per model to just $7 million or less, thanks to process simplification and a 75% reduction in memory requirements.

Amid these declines, Louise Dudley, portfolio manager of global equities at Federated Hermes Limited, believes there are still many questions left unanswered. “For Nvidia, as a key supplier of premium chips worldwide, the concern is whether companies will need fewer chips in the future. However, the company responded to the news by highlighting ‘excellent progress,’ signaling optimism about ongoing AI model developments, which are still in their relative infancy.

For companies involved in building data centers, the short-term impact is likely to be significant, as demand has been very strong. The new DeepSeek model code will be reviewed for potential performance improvements. Existing projects under development are at risk, and this will be a key focus for investors. This news will likely increase both corporate and consumer appetite for AI tools, given improved accessibility, leveraging this innovation and accelerating AI adoption timelines,” Dudley points out.

Market Reactions and Expert Insights

According to Hyunho Sohn, portfolio manager of the Fidelity Funds Global Technology Fund, Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has introduced AI models that perform comparably to OpenAI’s ChatGPT models while being significantly more cost-effective. “This efficiency advantage has raised a series of questions about the perceived ‘winners’ in the global AI ecosystem, the implications for hyperscaler capital expenditures, and the effectiveness of sanctions and export bans aimed at preventing high-level generative AI progress in China.

This is an evolving situation, and we may see short-term volatility until it becomes clear how much more efficient this technology really is. While broader implications must be assessed on a case-by-case basis, I generally believe this development will be deflationary,” Sohn states.

Despite the shockwaves, Fidelity’s portfolio manager believes this is ultimately beneficial for end-users and service providers, though it could have negative implications for hardware. “This is similar to what we saw in the early days of the internet when people vastly underestimated the scale of innovation, technological adoption, and service-based business potential, while greatly overestimating the total addressable market (TAM) for hardware,” explains Sohn.

In the view of Amadeo Alentorn, manager of the Global Equity Absolute Return fund and head of the systematic equity team at Jupiter AM, DeepSeek’s rise is part of a broader trend that has been developing for months. In recent times, there have been major advances in Small Language Models (SLM), which contrast with the large models used by companies like OpenAI. The central question has been whether it is possible to build more precise, specialized models that focus on specific areas, such as law or medicine, rather than encompassing all knowledge.

“So far, the rise of artificial intelligence has primarily benefited a small group of large companies. However, recent advancements suggest that we may be witnessing a paradigm shift, where smaller companies can also leverage this technology without needing massive infrastructure investments. Identifying which companies will lead this new AI phase is a complex task, but what is clear is that this evolution promotes diversification within the sector. AI could expand beyond tech giants and create new business opportunities across various industries,” Alentorn asserts.

High Valuations Under Scrutiny

In this context, Fidelity’s portfolio manager acknowledges that, as he has been saying for some time, many AI semiconductors are expensive, with sentiment, valuations, and momentum slowing down—“the most interesting opportunities lie within the services ecosystem.”

“It’s still early, but I would add that the rapid developments in generative AI highlight the need for proximity and connection throughout the tech ecosystem—something we are well-positioned for, given the breadth and depth of our research coverage,” Sohn adds.

For Oliver Blackbourn, portfolio manager in the Multi-Asset team at Janus Henderson, AI has long been considered a highly complex area of development, with industry leaders perceived as having technological advantages that would allow them to maintain rapid growth. In his view, the expectation of high earnings growth has been used to justify elevated valuations, making these stocks highly vulnerable to any disappointment.

“Competition always seemed like the biggest threat, but also the hardest to assess for investors. The market’s reaction to a perceived radical shift in the competitive landscape has been fierce. Before U.S. markets opened today, Nasdaq 100 futures had fallen 3.9%, and ASML—one of Europe’s companies most exposed to the AI theme—had dropped more than 10%,” Blackbourn notes.

In his opinion, while it is easy to get ahead of events, it is also important to remember that high expectations have driven up valuations across the U.S. stock market and, consequently, global equities. “If we start to see U.S. stock valuations drop significantly, there is a risk that this will spill over into other high-valuation areas in Europe and Asia.

Similarly, with U.S. consumers more exposed than ever to the stock market, there is a broader risk of negative feedback loops if consumer confidence is shaken. A significant tightening of financial conditions due to stock market losses could quickly change the Federal Reserve’s outlook,” Blackbourn concludes.

Is Your Strategy Ready for 2025? Five Key Trends Transforming Asset Management

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Asset management and key trends — AI generated

Is your strategy prepared for the transformations redefining asset management in 2025? Technological integration, personalization, and the reinvention of operational models are reshaping the industry. Among these trends, asset securitization stands out as an innovative solution to maximize the growth of assets under management (AUM) and respond nimbly to increasing market complexity.

In this article, FlexFunds analyzes the significant trends shaping the future of asset management and how securitization can become a key strategic tool.

Large-scale personalization: the client at the center

Investors no longer seek generic products; they now demand solutions tailored to their objectives, values, and circumstances. By 2025, digitalization, powered by advanced artificial intelligence (AI) tools, will enable asset managers to build portfolios aligned with specific risk tolerances and unique goals. Personalization is becoming the key differentiator in a saturated market.

Digitalization and hybrid asset management

The pandemic accelerated the shift toward digital financial services, and by 2025, hybrid asset management will become the norm. Technological platforms that combine the convenience of digital self-service with human advisory will allow firms to adapt to an increasingly competitive market.

Fee reduction and new pricing models

The rise of automated advisors and investment platforms has driven down fees, forcing traditional portfolio managers to justify their value. Many are adopting alternative pricing models, such as subscriptions or fees based on service complexity.

Generational wealth transfer

As the massive wealth transfer from baby boomers to younger generations unfolds, asset managers face the challenge of maintaining multi-generational relationships. Technological tools simplify this transition by offering attractive investment options tailored to diverse generational profiles—from millennials interested in ESG to traditional investors.

Artificial intelligence: the transformation catalyst

AI is revolutionizing asset management, from portfolio structuring to client interaction. Its most notable applications include:

Predictive analysis: Identifying patterns and anticipating future client needs.
Portfolio optimization: Processing real-time data to detect risks and opportunities.
Risk management: Monitoring real-time transactions and adjusting strategies in response to market volatility.

In the second Asset Securitization Industry Report by FlexFunds and Funds Society, surveying over 100 senior executives from Latin America, the U.S., and Spain, 82% of portfolio managers stated that AI could enhance their investment decision-making process.

Securitization as a strategic tool

Asset securitization is a vital tool for portfolio managers looking to adapt to these trends. It allows them to offer clients personalized investment strategies tailored to risk profiles and time horizons that are cost-efficient and agile compared to other market alternatives.

The benefits of asset securitization for portfolio managers include:

Access to a broader base of international investors.
Enhanced distribution of investment strategies on private banking platforms through a listed security available via Euroclear.
Access to alternative financing sources.
Portfolio diversification offers flexibility in investment strategy composition by securitizing any underlying asset.
Simplified investor onboarding and subscription processes.

Asset management in 2025 will be defined by the ability to integrate technology, personalization, and innovative strategies like securitization. Managers who adopt a holistic approach, combining advanced digital tools with strong human relationships, will be best positioned to thrive in this evolving landscape.

To explore how FlexFunds can help you leverage securitization in your investment strategies, contact us at info@flexfunds.com.