Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. PIMCO y GE Capital Aviation Services crean una plataforma de inversión en el sector de arrendamiento de aeronaves
PIMCO and GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS), a business unit of GE, have reached a preliminary agreement to develop an aviation leasing platform to support up to $3 billion in aircraft asset financings. The firms announced in a press release that the transaction is subject to customary closing conditions and receipt of required regulatory approvals.
This strategic investment platform will enable GECAS and PIMCO-advised accounts to acquire “new and young fuel-efficient aircraft to meet the needs of a diverse set of global airlines over many years”, they explained. The platform looks to provide “much-needed financing” for airlines which are looking to upgrade their fleets.
The portfolio will initially focus on narrowbody aircraft while allowing flexibility to invest in attractive opportunities in the widebody market. PIMCO and GECAS will consider a range of investment criteria including an airline’s assets and credit quality and also geographic factors.
PIMCO is already one of the world’s largest investors in aviation-backed debt. Both firms think that its presence in aviation financing markets combined with GECAS’ leadership role in the aircraft-leasing segment will provide “enormous flexibility” to fund the global airline industry. GECAS will source transactions, act as servicer and provide asset management services for the platform.
Essential liquidity for a critical industry
“As the airline industry struggles with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the PIMCO-GECAS platform will inject essential liquidity into this critical industry by providing financing solutions at a time when there are fewer traditional financing options for airlines,” said Dan Ivascyn, PIMCO’s Group Chief Investment Officer.
In his view, aircraft remain an attractive asset class in a critical infrastructure sector supported by solid long-term growth drivers. He also pointed out that GECAS’ expertise as a world class aircraft lessor aligns with PIMCO’s “longstanding investment strategy” in aviation finance.
Meanwhile, Greg Conlon, president and CEO of GECAS, claimed to be “delighted” to team up with a premier institutional investor such as PIMCO in this strategic relationship which he thinks will enable “opportunistic plays” to support airline customers around the globe.
“While GECAS maintains an industry-leading position, this platform will ensure we can continue providing our airline customers with the aircraft needed to sustain their franchises”, he added.
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. La relación entre el Reino Unido y la UE después de diciembre y las implicaciones para sus respectivas industrias de fondos
With less than 100 days until the UK definitely leaves the European Union, it is worth reflecting on the practical impact of Brexit on the relationship between the UK and Luxembourg in the asset management and fund industry.
London and Luxembourg are long-standing partners. With 17.1% of AUM, UK asset managers represent the second largest group of initiators of Luxembourg funds. These investment funds (UCITS and AIFs) benefit from European marketing passports. They are distributed in the EU at large, including the UK, and beyond.
The UK is in fact a very important distribution market, with Luxembourg clearly a leader among overseas funds. Roughly 25% of funds distributed in the UK are overseas funds. As at 31 December 2019, there were 8,862 funds/sub-funds distributed in the UK. From this total, 4,341 are Luxembourg-domiciled, which thus represents 49% of all overseas funds registered in the UK.
The vast majority of UK asset managers (HSBC, Invesco, Schroders, Aberdeen, M&G, just to name a few) have established their own UCITS management company or AIFM in Luxembourg. This was already the case before Brexit, but some additional 30 firms have in the meantime set up their own operation in Luxembourg. This allows them to benefit from the European management passport once the UK will have left the EU. This was a logical move when considering that the UCITS Directive and AIFMD feature both a “product” passport, meaning the investment funds themselves, and a “management” passport for UCITS management companies and AIFMs managing these funds.
Another possible way of retaining access to distribution in the EU is to set up the fund in Luxembourg while appointing a third-party management company, should the UK asset manager not have its own operation in the EU.
By far and large, ALFI’s feedback from its members is that virtually all firms have taken the necessary steps to anticipate a hard Brexit: either setting up presence for those few that needed a presence in the EU as just mentioned, or re-domiciling UK funds to Luxembourg, and making the necessary adjustments in the allocation of assets.
Unlike in other segments of the financial sector such as the clearing of derivatives, trading venues or CSDs, the concept of equivalence plays little if no role when it comes to the management and marketing of EU and non-EU funds. Indeed, the UCITS directive and the AIFMD already offered pre-Brexit a relatively clear framework.
The impact on UK and Luxembourg
What does this mean in practice for UK funds? Any fund that is not a UCITS is by definition and from a European perspective an AIF. Those UK-domiciled UCITS will lose their UCITS label. They will qualify as non-EU AIFs as from 1 January 2021. They may still be marketed to European investors subject to the conditions set out in the AIFMD, which are obviously more restrictive. Non-EU AIFs can indeed only be placed subject to the terms of the National Private Placement Regimes, if any, of each individual EU Member State. They will no longer benefit from a marketing passport as the AIFMD 3rd country passport has not been activated.
And for Luxembourg? Any Luxembourg UCITS that is today marketed in the UK will similarly no longer be viewed by the UK as a UCITS from 2021 onwards. That said, there is wide consensus among policymakers and asset managers that it is key, from an investor choice’s perspective, to keep the UK market open to overseas funds, especially when considering that UCITS are retail products with a high degree of investor protection. Today, most money market funds and ETFs marketed in the UK are overseas funds, almost invariably domiciled in Luxembourg or Dublin.
To avoid any disruption, the UK government and the FCA implemented a Temporary Permissions Regime (TPR) which enables relevant firms and funds which passport into the UK, to continue operating in the UK when the passporting regime ceases to exist on 31 December 2020. All Luxembourg investment funds registered for distribution have made use of the TPR mechanism.
The TPR is obviously a short-term facility to bridge the gap until new legislation is passed and effectively implemented in the UK. It is expected that this will take two or three more years from now.
2021 and beyond
From January 2021 onwards, the UK will become a 3rd country. The legislator may impose additional requirements on overseas funds like this is currently the case with EU funds distributed in other 3rd countries such as Switzerland, Hong Kong etc.
The UK Government (HM Treasury) launched a Public Consultation on the Overseas Funds Regime (OFR) post Brexit, to which ALFI responded in early May. ALFI generally agrees on the approach taken, in particular the concepts of outcomes-based equivalence set out in this Consultation. The main challenge for overseas funds will obviously lie in the additional requirements (such as the requirement to comply with FCA PS18/8 on the Assessment of Value) that the UK legislator, being no longer bound by EU legislation, may impose on overseas funds. It may trigger additional costs hence each overseas fund will need to weigh the costs and benefit of continuing marketing in the UK.
Delegating management
A major point of attention in the relationship between the UK and the EU post Brexit is the delegation of portfolio management. Delegation is explicitly permitted in the UCITS Directive and AIFMD. Cooperation agreements between EU Member States and third countries must be in place in case of delegation, which will be the case.
The designation of delegates in and outside the EU is subject to strict requirements of initial and ongoing due diligence, and oversight of delegates. A framework with the required protections and safeguards is already in place. As a result, there is a wide consensus in the industry that they are no reasonable grounds to revisit the delegation framework in the context of the reviews of the AIFMD and UCITS Directive.
US equities were lower during the month of September, ending a streak of five consecutive months of gains. Investors sold shares as a reaction to the news of a resurgence of coronavirus cases in Europe. The “Big 5” tech companies as well as other growth/momentum stocks contributed to the weakness for US equities over concerns of crowded positioning and stretched valuations.
Fears are intensifying over a resurgence of COVID-19 from students going back to school, colder weather and the start of influenza season. However, increased optimism about the progress of a vaccine and treatment trials have investors hopeful that the economy will not endure another global shutdown.
While dialogue has remained open for a bipartisan deal for additional coronavirus stimulus, political tensions have made negotiations difficult and unclear. The upcoming presidential election has added more volatility to the markets as well as the political uncertainty associated with a potential delay of declaring a winner due to mail-in ballots and likely litigation.
While technology stocks have been the primary beneficiaries during COVID-19, other areas of the economy (including housing, retail consumer spending, business capital expenditures, and government-backed infrastructure related spending) will likely lead in a recovery. As stock pickers, we can use the current volatility as an opportunity to buy attractive companies, which have positive free cash flows, healthy balance sheets and are trading at discounted prices.
Merger activity in the third quarter topped $1 trillion, an increase of 94% compared to the second quarter and the strongest quarter for dealmaking since the second quarter of 2018. Worldwide M&A now totals $2.3 trillion year-to-date, a decrease of 18% from 2019 levels. Technology, Financials and Energy & Power were the most active sectors accounting for 43% of all dealmaking. Europe and Asia Pacific have remained bright spots for M&A, increasing 15% and 19% respectively, while dealmaking in the U.S. has declined in 2020 by 42% to $815 billion. Global deals valued between $5 and $10 billion have increased 23% over 2019, while mega deals (deals valued over $10 billion) have declined 33%.
Column by Gabelli Funds, written by Michael Gabelli
To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:
GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE
GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.
Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.
Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.
Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.
Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
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GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE
The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.
GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach: free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.
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Class R USD – LU1453359900
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Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.
Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.
Alantra AM has announced in a press release the acquisition of a 49% stake in Indigo Capital SAS, a pan-European private debt asset manager.
Based in Paris, Indigo is an independent, established player in the alternative finance market specializing in the financing of small and medium-sized European businesses worth between €20-300 million through a combination of private bonds and preferred equity. Since inception, the firm’s 7 investment professionals have completed over 50 investments for a total value of more than €800 million across France, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the UK.
“The investment in Indigo Capital represents yet another step in the growth plan of Alantra AM, and follows the incorporation of Grupo Mutua as its strategic partner to support the firm’s ambition of building a diversified pan-European asset management business”, said the firm in the press release.
Through its existing teams and the strategic stake in Indigo Capital, Alantra and its affiliates will have over €1 billion of assets under management covering different private debt strategies, including senior debt, unitranche and private bond solutions to corporates and long-term flexible financing for real estate companies.
The different teams actively cover 7 European markets.
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. El coste de riesgo de la banca casi triplica los niveles anteriores a la pandemia
Lombard International Group announced the expansion of its Institutional Solutions Practice (Practice) globally. This will provide institutional investors, based across the globe, with more effective ways to invest in U.S. private markets. Also, “it will assist U.S. and non-U.S. investment managers to raise capital through compliant investment structures that can more efficiently enhance net returns”, stated the firm in a press release.
The Practice focuses on improving global access to U.S. private markets for institutional investors such as pension funds, corporations, sovereign wealth funds, foundations, endowments and funds of funds, to enable their investment allocation to be “more efficient and effective”, says the wealth manager.
Operating across major global wealth hubs, the Practice is headed up by financial services veteran John Fischer, who leads a multi-disciplined team of senior executives. In the U.S., this includes Tom Wiese, Executive Managing Director; Sandy Geyelin, Executive Managing Director, and C. Penn Redpath, Senior Managing Director. Also, Jason Tsui, Managing Director, will lead the distribution strategy in Asia; Juan Job, Senior Managing Director, will be in charge of Latin American operations; and EMEA will be led by Peter Coates, who recently joined Lombard International as Global Director of Institutional Solutions.
“Institutional Solutions has been one of the key drivers of our growth. We’re excited to launch this internationally expanded Practice across the major global wealth hubs in Asia, Europe, LatAm and the U.S. Our team’s many decades of experience in combining insurance solutions and investment for optimized outcomes, as well as their subject matter expertise in alternative investments, means they are perfectly positioned to assist strategic partners and clients focused on U.S. private markets, which present attractive investment opportunities”, said Stuart Parkinson, Group Chief Executive Officer.
Michael Gordon, US CEO & Global COO, commentedthat, as markets remain volatile and uncertain, the institutional appetite for U.S. private markets is increasing. “Despite recent events, financial markets remain globally connected, and non-U.S. institutional investors in particular continue to be a key driver of asset flows into U.S. private equity, private debt and real assets. I’m delighted to spearhead the growth of this practice globally, to help institutions better achieve their unique investment objectives”, he added.
Meanwhile, Fischer, Executive Vice President and Head of Distribution,pointed out that their aim with this internationally expanded Practice is to truly make every basis point count. “We have created an effective global offering, using time-tested insurance structures which help investors reduce the friction associated with U.S. private assets, improving investment yields and reducing administrative burdens. Importantly, our solutions are cost-efficient, transparent and highly customizable to the unique needs of institutional investors”, he said.
Foto cedida. Morgan Stanley cierra un acuerdo para adquirir Eaton Vance por 7.000 millones de dólares
Morgan Stanley has entered a definitive agreement to acquire Eaton Vance, a provider of advanced investment strategies and wealth management solutions with over $500 billion in assets under management (AUM), for an equity value of approximately $7 billion.
The acquisition will make Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) a leading asset manager with approximately $1.2 trillion of AUM and over $5 billion of combined revenues. The asset manager stated in a press release that it avances its “strategic transformation” with three world-class businesses of scale: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management and Investment Management.
MSIM and Eaton Vance consider themselves “highly complementary” with limited overlap in investment and distribution capabilities. Eaton Vance is a market leader in key secular growth areas, including in individual separate accounts, customized investment solutions through Parametric, and responsible ESG investing through Calvert. “Eaton Vance fills product gaps and delivers quality scale to the MSIM franchise. The combination will also enhance client opportunities, by bringing Eaton Vance’s leading U.S. retail distribution together with MSIM’s international distribution”, points out the press release.
“Eaton Vance is a perfect fit for Morgan Stanley. This transaction further advances our strategic transformation by continuing to add more fee-based revenues to complement our world-class investment banking and institutional securities franchise. With the addition of Eaton Vance, Morgan Stanley will oversee $4.4 trillion of client assets and AUM across its Wealth Management and Investment Management segments”, said James P. Gorman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Morgan Stanley.
Meanwhile, Thomas E. Faust, Jr., Chief Executive Officer of Eaton Vance stated that by joining Morgan Stanley, they will be able to further accelerate their growth by building upon their common values and strengths, which are focused on investment excellence, innovation and client service. “Bringing Eaton Vance’s leading brands and capabilities under Morgan Stanley creates a uniquely powerful set of investment solutions to serve both institutional and retail clients in the U.S. and internationally”, he added.
The details of the transaction
The firms point out that this transaction is attractive for shareholders and will deliver long-term financial benefits. “Both companies have demonstrated industry-leading organic growth and have strong cultural alignment”.
The combination will better position Morgan Stanley to generate attractive financial returns through increased scale, improved distribution, cost savings of $150MM – or 4% of MSIM and Eaton Vance expenses – and revenue opportunities.
Under the terms of the merger agreement, Eaton Vance shareholders will receive $28.25 per share in cash and 0.5833x of Morgan Stanley common stock, representing a total consideration of approximately $56.50 per share. Based on the $56.50 per share, the aggregate consideration paid to holders of Eaton Vance’s common stock will consist of approximately 50% cash and 50% Morgan Stanley common stock.
The merger agreement also contains an election procedure allowing each Eaton Vance shareholder to seek all cash or all stock, subject to a proration and adjustment mechanism. In addition, Eaton Vance common shareholders will receive a one-time special cash dividend of $4.25 per share to be paid pre-closing by Eaton Vance to Eaton Vance common shareholders from existing balance sheet resources.
The transaction will not be taxable to Eaton Vance shareholders to the extent that they receive Morgan Stanley common stock as consideration. The transaction has been approved by the voting trust that holds all of the voting common stock of Eaton Vance, says the press release.
The acquisition is subject to customary closing conditions, and is expected to close in the second quarter of 2021.
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. iShare amplía sus fondos sostenibles con el lanzamiento de un ETF UCITS de bonos climáticos
iShares has launched the first climate risk-adjusted government bond ETF in the market: the iShares € Govt Bond Climate UCITS ETF. The strategy tracks the FTSE Climate Risk-Adjusted European Monetary Union (EMU) Government Bond Index (Climate EGBI), launched by FTSE Russel last January.
The ETF offers access to Eurozone government bonds while seeking to provide a higher exposure to countries less exposed to climate change risks and a lower exposure to countries that are more exposed, explained FTSE Russel on a press release. As for the index, it is designed for investors with an increased focus on climate performance of their government bond portfolios and is the result of close collaboration with Blackrock’s team over recent months.
The Climate EGBI incorporates a tilting methodology that adjusts index weights according to each country’s relative exposure to climate risk, with respect to resilience and preparedness to the risks of climate change. This includes an assessment of the expected economic impact of transitioning to greenhouse gas emissions levels aligned with the Paris Accord target of less than 2°C by 2050, known as transition risk. An assessment of the physical risk of climate change such as sea level rises and the resiliency of countries to tackle these risks is also assessed.
“The decision by a leading investor and ETF provider such as Blackrock to license FTSE Russell’s Advanced Climate EGBI for an ETF listing marks an important juncture in climate themed investing in European fixed income markets. Both institutional and private asset owners are increasingly including climate objectives in their decision making and are adjusting fixed income portfolios based on climate concerns. We expect growing interest from investors in this area”, said Arne Staal, Global Head of Research and Product Management at FTSE Russell.
Meanwhile, Brett Olson, Head of iShares fixed income, EMEA, at BlackRock, pointed out that sovereign issuers are facing increasing pressure to meet sustainability criteria, as more investors consider the ESG profile of their fixed income portfolios. “Until today, investors have had very limited options for cost effective exposure to government bonds that incorporate climate risk. This launch is yet another example of our commitment to providing investors with more choice to build sustainable portfolios”, he added.
Foto cedidaStefano Caleffi, New Head of ETF Sales for Southern Europe at HSBC Global AM . Stefano Caleffi, New Head of ETF Sales for Southern Europe at HSBC Global AM
HSBC Global Asset Management has expanded its ETF sales team with the appointment of Stefano Caleffi as Head of ETF Sales for Southern Europe, a newly created role.
Based in Milan, he will be responsible for driving HSBC Global AM’s ETF sales and business development efforts across Italy, Spain and Portugal. Caleffi will report to Olga de Tapia, Global Head of ETF Sales.
The asset manager announced in a press release that this appointment follows the ones of Phillip Knueppel as Head of ETF Sales for Austria, Germany and Switzerland and Marc Hall as Head of ETF Sales for Switzerland.
De Tapia commented that Caleffi’s appointment is another milestone in their plans to grow their ETF business in Europe. “His extensive client-facing and ETF industry experience make him the perfect candidate to drive our sales effort in Italy, Spain and Portugal”, she added.
Caleffi has over 15 years’ experience in the investment management industry. Most recently, he was Head of ETF Business Development Italy, Iberia and Israel at Invesco. Prior to that, he was responsible for Southern Europe distribution at Source. Before joining Source, he worked in the equities division of Credit Suisse First Boston.
Calvert Research and Management, a subsidiary of Eaton Vance, announced the launch of the Calvert Institute for Responsible Investing, an affiliated research institute dedicated to driving positive change by advancing understanding and promoting best practices in responsible investing.
Initially launched in North America, asset owners and investors in Europe and Asia will now have access to Calvert Institute’s work by connection to its online hub hosting its latest research as well as dedicated client events and webinars. “Through research, education and collective action, the Calvert Institute seeks to direct the power of the financial markets increasingly to addressing the leading global challenges of our time, including environmental degradation, climate change, racial inequality and social injustice”, said the firm in a press release.
As a complement to its internal research and education programs, the institute will partner with academic organizations, industry groups and other like-minded investors to create and sponsor third-party research focusedon environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues of concern to responsible investors.
“For many years, Calvert has been a global leader in responsible investing and a catalyst for positive change through our research and engagement efforts. By creating the Calvert Institute, we broaden the scope of our mission and programs in support of responsible investors and society as a whole”, commented John Streur, President and Chief Executive Officer.
Meanwhile, Anne Matusewicz, a director of the Calvert Institute, said that they are “thrilled” to have this opportunity to contribute to the further development of responsible investing. “We want to help investors understand the role they can play in promoting positive change. Examining race and injustice, climate change and other critical issues will allow us to amplify voices that challenge the status quo based on research results and educate individuals and institutions at various stages of their responsible investment journey”, she added.
The Calvert Institute will continue Calvert’s well-established practice of working with leading academic professionals and supporting innovative research done at academic institutions, governance organizations and specialist research firms. Current research projects include exploring and assessing forms of corporate governance, human capital management, inequality and the financial materiality of gender and racial diversity, ESG integration, public finance, sustainable practices and the global energy transition.
“The Big Picture Series”, Jupiter Asset Management. “The Big Picture Series”, Jupiter Asset Management
Jupiter Asset Management is organizing its first virtual event, “The Big Picture Series” for September, October and November, during which the management company will be bringing together experts from various investment disciplines to discuss current financial issues.
At the opening of the event, the first conference was delivered by Andrew Formica, the company’s CEO, who reflected on the unprecedented scale of globally disruptive effects of the pandemic and spoke of his belief in “the power of active minds” to meet the challenges of the currently irrational markets.
Afterwards, Richard Buxton, Head of the UK Alpha strategy and former CEO of Merian Global Investors, and Edward Bonham Carter, Vice Chairman of Jupiter Asset Management, spoke about the process of unifying both firms and the possible headwinds in the markets: the US presidential elections, the failure to reach an a Brexit agreement and the implications of the coronavirus crisis.
Then, on the panel discussion, Katharine Dryer, Deputy Chief Investment Officer, moderated a discussion that addressed inflation in a world that is still emerging from the pandemic. The panel included Ariel Bezalel, fund manager and Head of strategy for the fixed income team at Jupiter AM, Mark Richards, strategist with the Multi Asset team, Chi Kit Chai, Head of capital markets and CIO at Ping An Asset Management (Hong Kong), and Ned Naylor-Leyland, fund manager and Head of the Gold & Silver team.
In response to the crisis caused by the pandemic, central banks and governments have taken a major policy shift with a new wave of accommodative measures. As markets adapt to these new conditions, the debate centers on whether an inflationary or deflationary environment will occur. Beginning the round of responses, Ariel Bezalel, reviewed the evolution of inflation in the last decades, and argued that, in his opinion, what we are facing is structural deflation.
“In the 1980s, central banks, led by the efforts of Paul Volcker as Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, focused their efforts on fighting inflation. Then, the decade of the 90s was marked by a period of moderate inflation. While, at present, deflation or disinflation seems to be gradually enveloping the world. In reality, it is really a growing concern for the major central banks. Over the last decade, we have been experiencing a deflationary environment that has been expressed in our portfolios with a high weighting of medium and long duration securities issued by some of the AAA rated sovereign issuers,” explained the manager.
“In the Euro zone, 60% of the economies are experiencing deflation. On average, if you look at the situation in developed economies, inflation is close to 0%. While in emerging markets, where traditionally higher inflation levels have been experienced, inflation levels have been seen to decrease, reaching an average of 2%, year-on-year,” he added.
According to Ariel Bezalel, most of the arguments on deflation are grounded on worldwide labor price. In a world with a massive increase in debt, an aging population, and enormous disruption by technology and globalization, the incorporation of cheaper labor from emerging economies into the global economy has been key to increasing deflationary pressures.
Another factor that has also been seen over the last few decades is how capital has gained an increasing share of the pie in the face of the bargaining power of the workforce. Since the pandemic began, some of these trends have accelerated – in particular the creation of more debt to try to rescue the global economy. But, for Bezalel, the concern is not so much the increase in debt as the utility of the debt. The manager pointed out that, during this year, a large part of the increase in fiscal deficits has been dedicated to rescuing the corporate sector and supporting people who have lost their jobs; unproductive debt that has not led to progress in infrastructure investment.
Mark Richards, on the other hand, maintained a slightly different vision, with a slightly more inflationary scenario. The strategist of the Jupiter AM Multi Asset team argues that some of the structural forces of recent decades have set a trend, but that for the first time in the last 30 or 40 years one can see a coherent narrative on inflation based on a greater tendency of economies to deglobalization.
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the impact of China’s entry into the global economic scene increased the world’s labor supply. Today, however, we are witnessing a reverse process, which is reflected in the strained trade relations between the United States and China. The way in which the post-VIDC era is moving towards a de-globalization of the economy would explain a possible increase in inflation. More money must be spent on redirecting supply chains, representing a greater cost to the system.
Furthermore, it should be taken into account that, at the global level, monetary policies are giving way to fiscal policies. During the last decade, the monetary policy of the main central banks has been expansive. At present, both fiscal and monetary policies are moving in the same direction after a very long time. According to Richards, the main difference in the response of the authorities to this crisis as compared to previous ones is that the liquidity that is flowing in the system is going to those areas which are less prone to consumption, so the argument of the speed of money is beginning to be more convincing.
Central banks are abandoning inflation targets set 30 or 40 years ago, admitting that they are not capable of modeling inflation. Instead of projecting inflation into the future, central banks decide to wait and keep interest rates close to zero for longer. This angle on monetary policy together with expectations, are the elements by which Richards defends an inflationary economic scenario.
According to Chi Kit Chai, however, there are two opposing forces at play. On the one hand, there are the loosening monetary and fiscal policies that have been implemented to counteract the effect of the pandemic. On the other hand, there is also the process of deglobalization that the economy is undergoing.
In recent decades, globalization has kept the prices of tradable goods low and has also represented a source of cheap labor. At this time, with tensions created by the US and China, there could also be a disruption in supply chains, and a potential relocation of these, contributing to inflationary pressure. In addition, the Fed has recently signaled its intention to tolerate higher price levels by modifying its inflation target.
In Chi Kit Chai’s opinion, there is an argument that we may be at the end of a secular disinflationary cycle spanning several decades, but there are also deflationary pressures exerted by the pandemic and the economic recession. At this time, it is not known if the pandemic is under control, if further waves will occur, or if the vaccine will arrive soon. Therefore, uncertainty in the markets is high. Deflationary forces remain strong because, although governments have acted against the loss of revenue from the most affected sectors, consumer spending has not recovered.
The near-zero interest rate environment also has implications for financial markets. According to Chi Kit Chai, we are in a high volatility and low yield environment in which debt has lost its traditional role of generating income and diversifying portfolios.
The negative correlation between equities and bonds breaks down when interest rates approach zero. Consequently, the risk/reward profile becomes asymmetrical: while the upside is limited, the downside can be significant if interest rates rise. This creates many challenges for investors, so they should not only take into account inflation, but this whole environment of near-zero interest rates.
In a similar vein, Ned Naylor-Leyland pointed out that, from his perspective, the market is exposed to both inflationary and deflationary pressures and that both will persist over time.According to the head of the Gold & Silver team, deflation exists in the monetary sphere. It is the result of some 40 years of accommodating monetary policies that have, in turn, created structural problems in the financial markets, and more specifically in the corporate debt market, where there is an excess supply that will not disappear soon.
But, Naylor-Leyland also challenges the perception that the cost of living has not increased. Evidence of inflationary trends can be seen in food prices, especially since the pandemic began.
“Inflation used to be a measure of the cost of living and the ability to maintain a constant standard of living. But adjustments to official inflation measures means that at a consumer level inflation has been rising in an uncontrolled fashion, unrecognized by policy makers, and that has contributed to the rise of populism,” he said.
From a conventional market point of view, said Naylor-Leyland, there are individual asset classes from which returns can be achieved, regardless of the type of inflation environment. For the manager, returns can be generated on an individual asset class by taking virtually opposite positions depending on the area the investor is focusing on.
