The ECB’s July Meeting Arrives With No Forecast of Changes in Rates, Discourse, or Stance

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The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its July monetary policy meeting tomorrow. According to asset managers, it is likely to proceed without major surprises and, most notably, without new interest rate cuts as market expectations suggest.

“The ECB’s July monetary policy meeting is likely to pass without incident. Similar to market expectations, we do not anticipate any interest rate cuts. Data dependency remains high, decisions are made meeting by meeting, and there is no prior commitment to a possible rate cut in September,” acknowledges Ulrike Kastens, economist for Europe at DWS.

This probable pause in July, according to Kevin Thozet, member of the investment committee at Carmignac, “will allow the institution to better assess the region’s inflation and growth trajectory and confirm that the path forward is as desired. However, the prospects of a new rate cut in September, along with the Fed, are high.”

Currently, data indicate that eurozone inflation fell to 2.5% year-on-year, while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.9%. In the opinion of Jean-Paul van Oudheusden, market analyst at eToro, as long as interest rates stay above 3%, it is likely that the ECB’s monetary policy will remain restrictive. “The current base interest rate is 4.25%, which provides room for further rate cuts despite the latest adjustment to interest rate expectations made by the central bank in June. Recently, the central bank has been cryptic about its interest rate path, but its goal is not to surprise the markets. Christine Lagarde could prepare the market for a rate cut in September or October in her press conference on Thursday,” comments van Oudheusden.

Regarding what to expect from tomorrow’s meeting, Germán García Mellado, fixed income manager at A&G, adds: “Regarding the reduction in bond purchase programs, no significant new developments are expected, since in July, reinvestments of the special program launched during the pandemic (PEPP) began to be reduced by 7.5 billion per month, with the aim of fully reducing reinvestments by 2025.”

Already stated by the ECB

In line with what the ECB has explained so far, given that there are no new growth and inflation projections, it is unlikely that the communication will change. According to Philipp E. Bärtschi, Chief Investment Officer of J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, the ECB’s rate cut in June was accompanied by comments suggesting that the ECB will also cut its rates gradually rather than quickly. “However, due to the weaker growth momentum and the projected inflation path, we expect three more rate cuts in the eurozone this year,” notes E. Bärtschi.

“The messages issued in Sintra are consistent with previous communications, and barring surprises in the data, September is the preferred date for the next action by members. What is reaffirmed is the trend of rate cuts. This meeting will take place after the French elections, and although there is still some uncertainty around the composition of the next French government and the prospects for fiscal policy, we do not rule out seeing Lagarde addressing questions about what the ECB could do to protect French sovereign bonds and under what circumstances,” adds Guillermo Uriol, Investment Manager and Head of Investment Grade at Ibercaja Gestión.

Additionally, according to President Lagarde, the strength of the labor market allows the ECB to take time to gather new information. Consequently, in the opinion of Konstantin Veit, portfolio manager at PIMCO, the ECB is in no rush to cut rates further, decisions will continue to be made meeting by meeting, and the data flow in the coming months will determine the speed at which the ECB removes additional restrictions.

“Given the ECB’s reaction function, whose decisions are based on inflation outlooks, core inflation dynamics, and monetary policy transmission, we foresee that the ECB will continue cutting rates in expert projection meetings, and we expect the next rate cut to occur in September,” emphasizes Veit.

Forecast of new cuts

The market currently expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September and another in December/January. However, they identify that the ECB remains open to a slower rate cut process based on the data being published, with a meeting-by-meeting approach.

For their part, investment firms agree that the market is pricing in another 45 basis points of rate cuts for this year and consider that the current terminal rate, around 2.5%, above most estimates of a neutral interest rate for the eurozone, indicates a high concern about last-mile inflation. “Overall, the market valuation seems reasonable and broadly aligns with our baseline of three cuts for this year,” points out Veit.

On the possibility of rate cuts resuming in September, Peter Goves, Head of Developed Markets Sovereign Debt Analysis at MFS Investment Management, argues that it is not yet fully priced in, which leaves some room for an uptick in the event of a 25 basis point cut at that meeting. “This keeps us optimistic about eurozone duration in the short and medium term. European government bond spreads remain relatively tight given the risk of events in France (which turned out to be relatively brief and more idiosyncratic than systemic). We see this as a possible topic to address in the press conference, but we doubt Lagarde will comment on France’s domestic political situation. Additionally, Lagarde is likely to affirm that monetary policy transmission has worked well,” explains Goves.

The ECB’s challenge

For Thomas Hempell, Head of Macro Analysis at Generali AM, part of the Generali Investments ecosystem, the ECB sticks to its data-dependent approach and stressed that wage data plays a crucial role. “On the other hand, official interest rates remain well above the neutral rate. We believe that with the slow downward trend in inflation, the ECB will initiate quarterly interest rate cuts until the deposit rate reaches 2.5%. This broadly aligns with market expectations,” comments Hempell.

In the opinion of Gilles Moëc, Chief Economist at AXA IM, it is paradoxical that central banks are being harshly criticized just as they are about to declare victory over inflation at a manageable cost to the real economy. In fact, he considers that the ECB started cutting rates in June, before clear signs of recession began to accumulate. “We believe it will be tight, but there is a possibility that the ECB will remove monetary restraint quickly enough to avoid a recession phase. We do not expect an emergency cut at this week’s meeting; we believe there would have been clear signals to this effect at the annual conference in Sintra,” he states.

According to his forecasts, the ECB Governing Council meeting should be the occasion to make it clearer that the June cut was only the beginning of a process. “We expect the next 25 basis point cut to occur in September. The market is now pricing an 87% probability of a cut then, and we would put it even higher. It is true that disinflation has stalled, but surveys converge to paint a sufficiently moderate picture of underlying price pressure for the ECB not to wait too long. In June, Christine Lagarde energetically avoided engaging in a discussion about what would be a path to removing restrictions. We expect greater openness this week, largely validating current market prices,” he concludes.

Larry Fink Reaffirms BlackRock’s Commitment to Private Markets

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In the context of presenting the second quarter 2024 results, Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, reiterated the company’s commitment to private markets. This commitment has been bolstered by the acquisition of Preqin earlier this month.

“BlackRock is leveraging the broadest set of opportunities we’ve seen in years, including private markets, Aladdin, and full portfolio solutions across both ETFs and active assets. At the same time, we are opening significant new growth markets for our clients and shareholders with our planned acquisitions of Global Infrastructure Partners and Preqin,” Fink stated.

In this regard, he highlighted that organic growth in this second quarter was driven by private markets, in addition to retail active fixed income and increasing flows into our ETFs, which had their best start to the year in history. “BlackRock generated nearly $140 billion in total net flows in the first half of 2024, including $82 billion in the second quarter, resulting in 3% organic growth in base fees. We are delivering growth at scale, reflected in a 12% increase in operating income and a 160 basis points expansion in margin,” he said regarding the results.

According to Fink, BlackRock’s extensive experience in engaging with companies and governments worldwide sets it apart as a capital partner in private markets, driving a unique deal flow for clients. “We have strong sourcing capabilities and are transforming our private markets platform to bring even more scale and technology benefits to our clients. We are on track to close our planned acquisition of Global Infrastructure Partners in the third quarter of 2024, which is expected to double the base fees of private markets and add approximately $100 billion in infrastructure assets under management. And just a few weeks ago, we announced our agreement to acquire Preqin, a leading provider of private market data,” he emphasized.

Finally, he insisted that “BlackRock is defining a unique and integrated approach to private markets, encompassing investment, technological workflows, and data. We believe this will deepen our client relationships and deliver value to our shareholders through premium and diversified organic revenue growth.”

Larger Funds, Private Markets, Active ETFs, and Long-Term Themes: What Thematics AM Has on Its Radar

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Thematics AM, an affiliate of Natixis IM, is celebrating its fifth anniversary. The asset manager, specialized in thematic investing, has focused on developing a range of global, actively managed, high-conviction thematic equity strategies. Currently, they manage €4 billion in assets and have grown from a founding team of six people to 24. We discussed the firm’s future plans and their perspectives on thematic investing in this interview with Karen Kharmandarian, the firm’s CIO and co-manager of the AI & Robotics strategy.

What is your assessment of the firm’s first five years?

Overall, very positive. Firstly, the company has grown in terms of products. We started with the Water, Safety, Artificial Intelligence & Robotics strategies, and our Meta fund, a multi-thematic product. Over time, we have added new products: Subscription Economy, Europe Selection, which is a multi-thematic strategy focused on European companies, and Climate Selection, also a multi-thematic fund, but focused on companies that comply with the Paris Agreement in terms of temperature trajectory. So, five years later, we have eight products. The first four we launched have reached between €400 million and €700 million, while the most recent ones are smaller, such as the Subscription Economy strategy, which is around €85 million. Looking ahead, our intention is for these funds to continue growing until they reach a critical size. This means we need to build trust in all of them.

What is your outlook for the next five years?

Assuming we continue generating good returns and trust, we want to keep identifying attractive investment themes while maintaining our DNA. That is, not just ‘trendy’ themes, but products that truly make sense from an investment perspective for clients, and that, in terms of investment, we have an investable universe that makes sense, allowing us to be exposed to different drivers, with diverse growth engines, offering regional and sector diversification, and where we can move with agility and flexibility to manage with a long-term vision. Our vision is to build thematic strategies where we can offer what we call ‘thematic alpha,’ where our active management adds value compared to the general market performance.

Are you considering taking this same vision and thematic strategies to the private market?

Not at the moment, although it is something we consider in the medium to long term. It would give us the opportunity to leverage our experience and identify companies that are growing rapidly in the unlisted space early on. It would require a different skill set and fully dedicated teams because you can’t cover the same number of companies as in the listed space. For now, we still see some opportunities in the listed space, especially in the middle ground between these two worlds, between the unlisted space and what we do on the listed side. Maybe in these earlier-stage companies, recently IPO or post-IPO, where we have some emerging trends appearing, but we don’t have an investable universe with too many companies. We could perhaps combine different emerging trends into a single strategy with highly promising, high-growth companies, dynamically managing these different themes within the same vehicle.

As active managers, do you find the active ETFs business attractive? Many asset managers indicate that it is a way to implement an active strategy in a more efficient vehicle. Is this something you consider for your business?

The ETF business is something we didn’t consider in the past because they were mainly passive and index strategies. But today, with these active ETF vehicles, you can do practically the same as we do in our UCITS funds, just using a different wrapper for the product. Having said that, we are quite indifferent to the vehicle itself; we can use a UCITS as we could an ETF. What matters to us is that the vehicle allows us to do exactly what we do in terms of how we manage the strategies: active management, conviction-based, fundamental stock selection, and truly having this long-term vision. As long as we can do that, if the client wants an ETF instead of a UCITS fund, we’ll do it. What matters to us is not altering our philosophy, our investment process, and the investment approach we apply to a specific theme. This offers us another potential growth opportunity and opens up a new set of clients who might not have been considering UCITS products. Perhaps this is also a sign of the times.

We have seen some investor disenchantment with thematic investing; why has it lost popularity?

We have seen tremendous growth in thematic strategies over the last, say, 10 years. The level of commercial traction and interest from all types of investors, from retail to institutional, has grown dramatically over the last 10 years. This is also a recognition of the current market reality, where sector classification or regional allocation makes less and less sense. With the success of thematic investing, new fund managers and asset managers also considered thematic strategies as a commercial hook for their products. A context was created where global equity products had become thematic strategies, but without really adopting the DNA of what a thematic strategy is and without generating very attractive returns. This disappointed the market.

In this regard, what is your approach?

For us, thematic investment strategies need to be based on long-term trends. We need to ensure that we have powerful trends that support superior growth for many years and that have enough depth and breadth of investable universe. Some of the requirements we have for our thematic strategies are: it must be enduring, it must have a significant impact, it must have a broad scope, and it must be responsible. These four criteria are really key to considering whether we see the theme as viable or not.

From the perspective of clients and investors, how do they use these strategies in their portfolios?

It depends a lot. There are common characteristics among all investors, and then there are specific objectives or requirements of some clients. Initially, we saw that thematic strategies started with retail clients, as a response to a matter of convictions and also because they are easy-to-understand products. Now we have detected that it has spread to private bankers, family offices, and institutional investors. This profile considers thematic strategies as a ‘satellite’ within their core investment portfolio and also as a bet on a specific theme to drive and diversify their performance. Progressively, we have also seen that clients are becoming more sophisticated and have moved towards thematic strategies as part of their overall allocation.

Which themes are investors most interested in now?

I would say, without a doubt, that AI and robotics are very much on the clients’ radar today because they see how their daily lives are being radically changed by AI, generative AI, OpenAI, etc., and how this can bring significant changes in the way they interact with technology. Water is also becoming a relevant theme again. Although it seems like a mature theme that has been around for many years, we see that people realize that with climate change, it is gaining new momentum. And I would also mention safety, which is regaining relevance in a context of geopolitical tensions and wars.

Cocoa: The Price Volatility Does Not Diminish the Appeal of This Agricultural Commodity

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In the course of 2024, the price of cocoa has doubled, making one of the greatest pleasures we know, chocolate, more expensive. Specifically, in April, the price of cocoa on the New York Stock Exchange reached its historical maximum at $11,500 per ton, then moderated and slightly decreased in the following months. After reaching these historical peaks, prices reversed the trend and fell by 15%, but it seems they will surge again and continue to grow over time after this correction.

Investors recognize that this agricultural commodity has great long-term appeal, despite the price volatility driven by drought and climate change affecting production. According to Bank of America, it is likely that cocoa price volatility will continue in the short term. The uncertainty around supply and its implications for spot and future cocoa contracts is the main topic of discussion with their clients. According to their latest report, cocoa harvests for 2023/2024 are expected to decrease by 25% to 30% in West Africa, a region that represents half of the global supply.

In fact, the situation has even led the government of Côte d’Ivoire to limit the delivery of cocoa supplies during the mid-crop (May-July, approximately 20% of annual production) to companies with local grinding capacity. In this regard, Bank of America analysts consider that price and futures volatility for cocoa will continue until the end of August, when projections for the main 2024/2025 crop become clearer.

Better harvest production could translate into a price increase for final products such as chocolate. Bank of America believes that major cocoa and chocolate brands will increase their prices by double digits to compensate for cocoa inflation during this period, considering a future cocoa price of approximately $6,000 per ton by 2025. “Reflecting cocoa price inflation, the impact of chocolate price increases on volume (elasticity) and mix (shift to more affordable products) will be key. However, the current price waves occur after two years of double-digit price increases, questioning historical elasticity patterns, especially in the U.S. market, which has been weak so far,” Bank of America points out in its report.

According to NielsenIQ data in the U.S., chocolate market sales have been weak so far this year, with volume down approximately 5% (and value up about 1%), clearly showing some cracks on the elasticity side. In BARN’s opinion, the main culprit remains the structure of the U.S. chocolate market, which is overrepresented in the mass market. The low representation of private labels and value brands (4% and 10% of volume, respectively) means there is a limited supply of low-priced products to prevent consumers from “abandoning” the category. In Western Europe, chocolate market sales have been resilient, with volume down about -2% (and value up about +8%). The main strength of the European market, according to BARN, is its more balanced nature compared to the U.S.

In Bank of America’s view, one of the risks for BARN is the possibility that some of its clients might reformulate their recipes to reduce cocoa content, especially in the U.S. market, to limit their own cost inflation. Although BARN has reformulation capabilities, this would be a volume obstacle as it would cannibalize sales or lead to a net revenue loss if not recovered.

As seen in the first half of 2024 results, Barry’s balance sheet is very sensitive to cocoa price movements, predominantly affecting working capital through the margin call on their short cocoa futures (reflecting the forward purchase agreement). Although the pressure on free cash flow will be intense in FY24 (BofAe: CHF -1.4bn), BARN has the necessary liquidity to face it with: 1) CHF 700 million bonds issued on June 10; 2) CHF 730 million bonds issued on May 5, 2024; 3) a CHF 500 million RCF available; and 4) approximately CHF 430 million in cash available in the first half of 2024 results.

Although it may take time to rebalance the supply and demand of cocoa, this will happen eventually, according to the report. Beyond the positive volume elasticity in the chocolate category resulting from a deflationary environment, in our opinion, the key positive for Lindt will be its ability to retain price increases, which will imply a tailwind for gross margin, likely translating into increased spending on advertising and promotion to continue nurturing brand value. Conversely, Bank of America estimates the impact will be less beneficial for BARN beyond the positive elasticity of the category, as prices will mathematically decrease for them considering the cost-plus model structure.

*Harvests begin in October.

Four Trends Hovering Over the Market: Geopolitics and Economic Transformation, Sustainability, Technology, and Demographics

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Amundi Shares Key Insights from the 2024 Edition of its Global Forum, Amundi World Investment Forum. The event featured in-depth discussions on geopolitical issues, economic transformation, major global macroeconomic trends, and their implications for investment.

In her opening speech, Valérie Baudson, CEO of Amundi, shared her convictions about the state of the world: “The economic outlook is improving, with global GDP growth around 3% in 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, history and geopolitics are back in focus, with energy transition and technological innovations at the center of geopolitical tensions, as they condition nations’ ability to maintain or gain power.”

The firm shared several key conclusions. The first is that major political and economic changes threaten long-standing trade and security alliances. According to the firm’s perspective, global politics affecting economies was a prominent theme among the speakers. Sanna Marin, Prime Minister of Finland (2019-2023), focused her talk on the current conflict in Europe, stating, “A major game is being played between democracies and authoritarian regimes. What is happening in Ukraine will define the future of democracy.” She urged Europe and NATO to offer “broader perspectives” and reminded that “geopolitics is not the only threat facing humanity; climate change and biodiversity loss are also critical.”

Adam S. Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, predicted, “Markets will push interest rates up in the coming years.” Ricardo Reis, A.W. Phillips Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, explained public debt movements by three factors: “The large current account deficits of China and the rest of Asia caused a significant capital flow into Europe and the United States, investment stagnation due to very few opportunities in the 2010s, and the perception of government bonds as very safe with little inflation risk. Today, all three factors have reversed.”

Additionally, Keyu Jin, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, estimated that “the three fastest-growing economies in the coming years will be in Asia: China, India, and Indonesia,” and spoke about “the need for convergence” in the region: “China has room to converge with richer countries, and India also has enormous room to converge with China.”

Gordon Brown, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (2007-2010) and Chancellor of the Exchequer (1997-2007), concluded the first day of debates with a message of hope, stating, “Even in the most difficult circumstances, even when things are very dark, we must keep hope alive. There are still signs of hope in this global economy that we must build upon, as Mandela said, ‘building for the future.’”

Sustainability, Technology, and Demography

The decarbonization of economies was a major focus. Dinesh Kumar Khara, Chairman of the State Bank of India, highlighted the “immense” potential of his country: “We are now embarking on green energy, which is being adopted significantly.”

Two case studies were presented: Chee Hao Lam, Chief Representative of the Monetary Authority of Singapore at the London Office, discussed how Singapore articulates public policy and mobilizes investors to finance the energy transition. Dr. Kevin K. Kariuki, Vice President of Power, Climate, and Green Growth at the African Development Bank Group, spoke about financing green energy infrastructure in a continent that “needs $25 billion annually to achieve universal access to modern energy by 2030.”

The firm also reflected on how the rapid acceleration of technological development has created new opportunities and pressures. Maurice Levy, Chairman Emeritus of Publicis Group, opened the second day’s debate with a focus on the rise of generative artificial intelligence. In his view, “On one hand, people think AI is probably the dream of tomorrow, which will change lives, especially for companies, their productivity, and profitability. At the same time, there is fear of job cuts and replacement, but most importantly, we need to address the implications regarding the use of deepfakes in democracy.”

Daron Acemoğlu, Professor at the MIT Institute, stated, “The key decision for CEOs will be how to use AI with workers, with human resources: whether they see workers as a cost to be cut or as an important resource that will contribute to their company’s success.” Aurélie Jean, Ph.D. and Computational Scientist, entrepreneur, and author, complemented this statement: “AI does not sufficiently protect workers. Technology owners, developers, scientists, and engineers have a responsibility to provide users with the correct information; they must protect while also fostering innovation.”

Experts remind us that financial services are at the heart of the AI revolution. “There is a huge opportunity to turn European savers into future European investors, and if AI can help with that, it will contribute to a better society,” said Dr. Kay Swinburne, Baroness of Swinburne.

Finally, the firm believes that demographic change is influencing many aspects of our lives. Mauro Guillén, Professor of Management and Vice Dean at the Wharton School, stated, “The key question is how to ride the wave of demographic transformations. India will soon have the largest consumer market in the world due to its younger population, although China will have the largest economy.” Demographics will impact investment trends, as “most of the world’s wealth, between 60% and 80% depending on the country, belongs to people over 60 years old.” Hence the need for “investment platforms to be safe, educational about risks and opportunities, and accessible” for all.

A Strengthened Trump Could Translate Into Higher Demand for Safe-Haven Assets and More Risks in the Markets

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The failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump this weekend during a rally in Pennsylvania brings a new direction to the US presidential race, improving his chances of victory. Additionally, according to experts, this event, which has dominated headlines since Saturday, could lead investors to seek safe-haven assets such as the dollar, gold, the Swiss franc, government bonds, and high-quality stocks.

In the opinion of Christian Gattiker, Chief Analyst at Julius Baer, regarding the political impact, Donald Trump’s election chances have increased dramatically. “If successful, this would mean a shift towards a more risk-taking mode in the markets, with higher expected growth in 2025 due to lower taxes and business-friendly policies,” he points out.

The experts at Renta 4 Banco share a similar assessment in their daily morning report: “The assassination attempt on Donald Trump this weekend could strengthen his chances of victory in the November presidential elections, as well as further increase political tension in the US.”

Bloomberg adds that it not only strengthens Trump’s position but also opens a new front for his opponent. “US President Joe Biden now finds himself fighting a re-election battle on two fronts: against Donald Trump and, more immediately, against some skeptics in his own party.” In this regard, Biden insisted to the press during Thursday’s press conference following the NATO meeting in Washington that “I am determined to run, but I think it’s important to allay fears.”

So far, around 20 Democratic House members and one Democratic senator, Peter Welch of Vermont, have publicly called for Biden to withdraw from the race against 78-year-old Trump, according to Bloomberg’s count.

Regarding the market, the Chief Analyst at Julius Baer believes that “it is quite possible that safe havens such as the US dollar, gold, the Swiss franc, seemingly safe government bonds, and high-quality stocks will be sought in the short term.” However, Gattiker clarifies: “If we believe the well-informed experts on US politics, the realization that Donald Trump’s election chances, and those of the Republicans in general, have significantly improved could settle in quickly, possibly even during the Republican National Convention this week. It is quite possible that we will see an iconic image of a raised fist against a bright blue sky as a defining moment of this campaign and beyond, which could be seen as a decisive moment in the election. This, in turn, would mean a shift towards a more risk-taking mode in the markets, with higher expected growth in 2025 due to lower taxes in the US and more business-friendly policies. How quickly this turnaround can occur largely depends on how quickly and successfully the Republicans can turn this shock into political capital,” he argues.

Inflation Data for June in the US: Is It the Clear Signal the Fed Was Waiting for to Lower Rates?

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Markets and investors are confident that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce a first rate cut in September. The argument supporting this conviction is the positive inflation data for June in the US: the year-over-year headline indicator showed an increase of 3%, lower than the expected 3.1% and down from 3.3% the previous month; and the core CPI surprised with a cut of one-tenth from the previous figure, reaching its lowest level since April 2021.

“On a monthly basis, the headline rate turned negative for the first time in nearly four years, with a -0.1% versus the expected 0.1% and the flat variation of the previous month. Overall, this confirms the trajectory towards the 2% target, although fluctuations may occur in the coming months,” explain analysts at Banca March.

By components, Banca March notes that both services and goods contributed less to inflation. “For services excluding energy, the variation was only 5%, the lowest rate since April 2022, contributing 3% compared to 3.11% the previous month. This was mainly due to a significant slowdown in attributed rents: 5.4% in June, the lowest growth since May 2022, compared to 5.6% previously, contributing 1.4%. As for goods prices, they declined at a rate of 1.84%, the biggest drop in 20 years, thus subtracting 0.40% from inflation. Finally, there was also a sharp slowdown in energy, growing by 0.99% compared to 3.67%, contributing only 0.08% versus 0.26%,” they detail in their daily analysis.

According to Banca March, it is undeniable that this is a good data point, reflected in market behavior. “It boosted bond prices on both sides of the Atlantic, leaving 10-year rates in the United States at their lowest levels since late March, and in Germany, the 2.5% level was breached again. Additionally, interest rate futures raise the chances of cuts in September to 90%, making it practically certain,” they add.

September: Rate Cut

In light of this macroeconomic data, combined with the outlook on the labor market and the US economy presented by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell this week during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, the first rate cut in the US is set for September. According to Ronald Temple, Chief Market Strategist at Lazard, at this point, a rate cut in September should be a “done deal.” “In the second quarter, the overall inflation rate in the US was 1.1%, with core inflation at 2.1%, making it increasingly evident that the upward surprises in the first quarter were anomalies. Given the growing evidence of slowing economic growth, it is time for the Federal Reserve to refocus on the dual mandate and ease monetary policy,” Temple argues.

For John Kerschner, Head of US Securitized Products and Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson, both the headline and core CPI were weaker than expected, giving the Federal Reserve the unequivocal signal that it will start lowering rates by the end of the year. “With less than three weeks until the next Fed meeting, the market is currently pricing in that it will skip that meeting and make its first cut in September. The probability of a cut at that meeting is now close to 100%, according to the market. More importantly, the market now expects three cuts by the end of January 2025. Chairman Powell recently said that inflation risks are now more ‘balanced.’ Yesterday’s figure reinforces that view and may now tilt the balance toward concern over a sharper slowdown in the US economy,” Kerschner states.

There is a clear consensus that weaker US inflation data strengthens the case for a rate cut at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. “Along with softer economic data, including a cooling labor market, this has increased confidence that inflation will tend to decline in the coming months. We lower our US inflation forecast to 3% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. We still expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September and December 2024,” acknowledges David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer.

According to Kohl, the decline in inflation in June follows a moderation in May and reinforces the view that the Fed will cut the federal funds rate target at its September meeting. “Weaker economic data, including a cooling labor market, also increases our confidence that inflation will decelerate further in the coming months and that the Federal Reserve will cut the target rate again at its December meeting. We lower our annual inflation forecasts for 2024 from 3.2% to 3.0% and for 2025 from 2.3% to 2.2%,” he concludes.

However, there are also dissenting voices in the industry. According to experts at Vanguard, despite the turn taken by the unexpected strength of the US economy, the events of the first half of 2024 have reinforced their view that the environment of higher interest rates is here to stay. “The current economic cycle is not normal. The global economy is still settling after unprecedented economic shocks that include a pandemic, a war in Ukraine, and rising geopolitical tensions. Structural changes, such as an aging population and rising fiscal debt, also make it difficult to decipher the economic cycle from the trend. This creates a challenging environment for central banks, markets, and investors,” says Jumana Saleheen, Chief Economist for Europe at Vanguard.

From Slogan to Numbers

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This week marks the beginning of the Q2 earnings reporting season in the U.S.

Approximately 42% of S&P 500 companies (213 in total) will report their performance by the end of the month. As usual, banks will be the first to report and are expected to detract the most from overall financial sector earnings growth (-10%), whereas excluding banks, the aggregate earnings per share (EPS) for insurance companies, capital markets, and other financial services firms would increase by ~15% (compared to the 4.3% estimated by consensus for the industry).

At first glance, the performance of banks (BAC, C, WFC, JPM) will likely be similar to the previous quarter. The yield curve remains inverted, long-term bond yields have increased by 0.17% during the period (compared to a 0.3% rise in the first three months of the year), loan growth continues to moderate, and while net interest income will also maintain a moderate growth rate, management teams might provide positive comments regarding a bottoming out of the margin. More clarity on the news reported by Reuters about comments on Basel III “Endgame” capital rules by the Fed would boost the share prices of major banks.

Broadening the perspective, according to S&P data, the consensus among analysts expects S&P 500 EPS to grow by 5.74% for the April-June quarter compared to the same quarter last year. Strategists and managers are betting on a positive EPS surprise below the average of recent quarters, placing this growth in the 7% – 8% range. The twenty companies that have pre-announced have reported ~+4% above consensus, justifying this bet.

The numbers are heavily skewed towards the contribution of the technology and communication services sectors. Earnings for Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, and Alphabet are expected to grow by 32%, while non-tech industries will only grow by ~2%. This starting point increases uncertainty regarding the outcome of the quarterly performance announcements because, on one hand, the EPS growth of these tech companies is slowing down (from 68% in Q4 2023 to 56% in Q1 this year). On the other hand, margins are unlikely to improve much further.

The consensus projects operating margins of 12.5% for the S&P (an increase of 5.3% from last year, still below the 2021 peak of 13.54%), with a 30.87% contribution from technology and communication services.

Therefore, it is important to pay attention to the comments from the management teams of hyperscalers regarding their plans to deploy around $200 billion in capital investments, with a significant portion associated with generative AI developments announced last quarter.

Everything has its limits, and while generative AI remains a priority for tech companies from an investment perspective, monetary commitments of this magnitude could negatively impact return on invested capital (ROIC) if not adequately monetized, and this is not simple or quick to achieve.

Nvidia’s cadence in launching new products helps build an AI offering more efficiently in the medium term, although in the short term, the price to pay starts to concern investors.

Blackwell, Nvidia’s new GPU chip, which will be marketed around 2025 and installed in the AI server GB200 NVL72, provides up to 30 times more performance than a rack configured using the same number (74) of Hopper GPUs (H100, the model preceding Blackwell) for large language model inference, while reducing energy consumption per computing unit (FLOP). The new system is also four times faster in training AI models than the previous version. However, these impressive improvements are not cheap. The price of two 16 GPU H100 systems is $400,000, and according to some analysts, the GB200 NVL72 could cost $3.8 million.

Nvidia is undoubtedly the clear winner in the AI leadership race, as demonstrated by its numbers. Analysts estimate more than $200 billion in revenues for the data center business by 2025, which generated $48 billion in 2023, translating to a compound annual growth rate of 63%. However, according to a Morgan Stanley survey of Chief Information Officers, AI investment momentum is slowing, and passing on such significant price increases to customers, despite efficiency improvements, may become more challenging.

Experts in the field expect continued spending on increasingly costly and complex large language models (LLM) development, which could cost between $10 billion and $100 billion by 2027, according to the CEO of Anthropic in this interview. And investors have no reason to doubt.

If Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, or Amazon suggest slowing their investments or taking a more patient approach, these same investors might start to waver.

As explained earlier, the good performance and maintenance of guidance by tech companies are necessary for analysts to maintain their aggressive earnings growth targets, averaging 12.85% per quarter for the next five quarters. This is possible but increasingly challenging if, as mentioned last week, the recovery in industrial activity begins to cool.

Arguments in favor of a first rate cut in the U.S. in September are mounting after Thursday’s CPI and Jerome Powell’s comments: the Fed chair stated in his testimony this week that inflation “is not the only risk we face.” However, while the compression in public debt yields benefits the valuation of growth companies like software or semis, managers seem too focused on the return of disinflation but not enough on the slowing growth – which is becoming increasingly evident – and the volatility that the presidential campaign will bring starting in September.

Biden’s intervention at the NATO meeting was much more solid than his debate with Trump, and his intention is to run for re-election, although there are increasing domestic (both political and non-political) and international pressures for him to step down.

The aggregate polling provided by RealClearPolitics gives Donald Trump a 47.2% voting intention compared to 44.2% for Joe Biden. Although isolated polls like ABC News (46-46) or Reuters/Ipsos (40-40) show a more uncertain situation, Trump still has the electoral college count on his side, even if he loses the popular vote. Of the 10 states that could tip the balance – with results within 5 points – he would emerge victorious in 7 of them.

Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, said at his developer conference in California that, despite the rising cost of their GPUs, “the more you buy, the more you save.”

The math is correct, but investor sentiment’s volatility and a less dynamic economic activity could suddenly shift investors’ focus from the slogan to the numbers.

Five Charts Explaining Investment Opportunities in European Private Credit

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The 99% of European companies have revenues below €10 million. Among large companies (those with revenues over €100 million), 96% are not publicly traded. According to Aramide Ogunlana, Head of Private Credit Investments at M&G, there is “a clear imbalance in funding sources,” providing additional data: only 4% of companies turn to private markets for financing, compared to 52% that issue bonds and 44% that are publicly traded. Ogunlana delivered a workshop during the recent European Media Day organized by M&G Investments in London.

Private markets have become a cornerstone of M&G Investments’ growth strategy in recent years. The firm is developing new vehicles to make these investments accessible to a broader range of investors. M&G has been investing in private credit since 1997, and its investment portfolio includes both liquid and illiquid corporate debt assets, amounting to €15 billion in private corporate credit and €35 billion in private debt as a broader asset class, including various strategies such as structured credit and real estate debt.

Ogunlana emphasizes the crucial importance of having a long investment history in these markets, as they are heavily relationship-driven: “Maintaining contact is very important, especially when aiming for the most illiquid parts of the market and acting as a sole lender. It’s also important to build relationships in the market to reach the companies you want to enter.” She also highlights the importance of having sufficient analytical capacity in-house to develop proprietary ratings. At M&G, the rating assignment process is conducted independently from the managers’ activities to ensure a neutral perspective. The firm focuses on segments rated B and BB and typically deals with over 200 liquid private companies and between 40 and 60 illiquid private companies.

Why Now?

According to Ogunlana, now is a particularly exciting time to delve into investment opportunities in the private debt market, noting the downward trend in the number of IPOs—the current levels are half of those recorded in the previous 20 years—along with the increase in delistings by companies wanting to return to private status to work more closely and flexibly with their funding sources (see chart).

The investment head notes that the potential is high, given that currently, 70% of European companies still finance themselves via traditional bank loans, compared to 22% of US companies. “This opportunity stands out particularly in Europe, although the global trend still points to high bank intermediation,” the expert notes. She adds that, historically, the European private credit market has outperformed the US in terms of returns (see chart).

As a result, the firm notes that new capital structures have emerged in recent years, and they also anticipate an increase in capital allocations to these market segments. Specifically, based on a survey conducted by Preqin in November 2023, they expect a 51% increase in private debt allocations (up from the current 9%), followed by a 32% increase in infrastructure and a 28% increase in private equity. The only category expected to see a reduction in allocations is hedge funds, which would drop from the current 23% to 19% (see chart).

According to similar data from a Cerulli study, the preferred vehicle for accessing these assets in the wholesale channel is ELTIFs and semi-liquid open-ended funds (37% and 36%, respectively), while co-investment is the least demanded option, with 12% of responses.

Misconceptions

Ogunlana also addressed a second set of perceptions that do not align with the reality of the size, liquidity, and returns currently offered by European markets. For example, she explained that, contrary to the perception that the high yield market is larger and more liquid than other private market segments, the reality in Europe is different (see chart).

Ogunlana demonstrates that the leveraged loan and floating rate note (FRN) market is worth €470 billion, compared to €350 billion for European high yield. “Seniority is very important for investing in these markets; we focus on finding the highest quality assets, at the top of the capital structure, and are very selective in our credit analysis because interest rates are still very high, so we need to calculate the principal recovery well,” she clarifies. She indicates that the recovery rate for syndicated loans is 73%, compared to 67% for senior secured debt.

The most illiquid part of the market is direct lending, with a size of €220 billion. This market is frequented by smaller companies (with EBITDA between €5 million and €75 million) and often each company has only one or very few financiers. It’s a market where “there is no room for error; we need a lot of investment analysis, and therefore our stance is very conservative,” the expert points out.

As a result of all these observations, the expert advocates for a review of the 60/40 model portfolio, noting that private credit offers diversification and decorrelation benefits compared to public markets. For example, Ogunlana states that direct lending behaves “almost like cash,” especially compared to high yield. Additionally, these assets offer a premium for complexity and illiquidity compared to other assets. For all these reasons, it would make sense for private markets to be considered not only as a distinct asset class when designing portfolios but also as part of the mix in more conventional fixed income and equity allocations (see chart).

The Return of Wealth Growth to 4.2% Offsets the 2022 Slump

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The global wealth growth rebounded in 2023 from the 3% contraction experienced the previous year, largely attributed to the monetary impact of the strong dollar. According to the latest UBS Global Wealth Report, wealth increased by 4.2% in 2023, making up for the losses of 2022 in both U.S. dollars and local currencies. This recovery was driven by growth in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA), which saw a 4.8% increase, and the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, which grew by 4.4%. With inflation slowing down, real growth outpaced nominal growth in 2023, with inflation-adjusted global wealth rising by nearly 8.4%.

The report highlights that wealth growth continues progressively worldwide, though at varying speeds. Since 2008, the proportion of individuals with the lowest wealth levels has decreased, while those with higher wealth levels have increased. The percentage of adults with wealth below $10,000 nearly halved from 2000 to 2023, with most moving up to the broader $10,000 to $100,000 range, which more than doubled. It is now three times more likely for wealth to exceed one million dollars.

On the other hand, the report explains that while inequality has been increasing over the years in rapidly growing markets, it has decreased in several mature developed economies. Globally, the number of adults in the lowest wealth bracket is experiencing a steady decline, while all other wealth brackets are consistently expanding.

Regional Wealth Insights

As the report indicates, this wealth recovery is driven by Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. According to the document, notably, while the global wealth decline in 2022 was mainly caused by the strength of the US dollar, last year wealth recovered above 2021 levels, even when measured in local currencies.

It is highlighted that since 2008, wealth has grown faster in the Asia-Pacific region, apparently driven by debt. “In this region, wealth has grown the most – nearly 177% – since we published our first Global Wealth Report fifteen years ago. The Americas are in second place, with nearly 146%, while EMEA lags far behind with just 44%. The exceptional growth in Asia-Pacific wealth, both financial and non-financial, has notably been accompanied by a significant increase in debt. Total debt in this region has grown more than 192% since 2008 – more than twenty times that in EMEA and more than four times that in the Americas,” they note.

In the case of the United States, it remains one of the few markets where wealth growth has accelerated since 2010 compared to the previous decade. In the US, as well as in the UK, wealth has grown uniformly across all wealth categories. “Our analysis shows that wealth inequality has slightly decreased in the US since 2008; in 2023, it housed the largest number of US dollar millionaires,” they add.

Regarding Latin America, growth was strong, but inequality remains present. Specifically, average wealth per adult in Brazil has grown by more than 375% since the 2008 financial crisis, when measured in local currency. This is more than double the growth of Mexico, at just over 150%, and more than mainland China’s 366%. However, Brazil has the third highest rate of wealth inequality in our sample of 56 countries, behind Russia and South Africa.

Finally, EMEA enjoys the highest wealth per adult in US dollar terms, with just over $166,000, followed by APAC, with just over $156,000, and the Americas, with $146,000. “Growth in average wealth per adult since 2008, expressed in dollars, shows a different picture: EMEA ranks last with 41%, compared to 110% in the Americas and 122% in APAC,” they explain.

Wealth Transfer and Horizontal Mobility

One of the key trends highlighted in the report is that wealth mobility is more likely to be upward than downward. “Our analysis of household wealth over the past 30 years shows that a substantial portion of people in our sample markets move between wealth brackets throughout their lives. In every wealth band and over any time horizon, people are consistently more likely to move up the wealth scale than down. In fact, our analysis shows that approximately one in three people move to a higher wealth band over the course of a decade. And, although extreme moves up and down the scale are uncommon, they are not unknown. Even leaps from the bottom to the top are a reality for a portion of the population. However, the likelihood of becoming wealthier tends to decrease over time. Our analysis shows that the longer it takes adults to appreciably gain wealth, the slower their increase tends to be in future years,” the report states.

In this regard, UBS has detected that “a large horizontal wealth transfer is underway.” According to the document, in many couples, one spouse is younger than the other, and generally, women outlive men by just over four years on average, regardless of the average life expectancy of a given region. This means that intra-generational inheritance often occurs before inter-generational wealth transfer.

“As our analysis shows, the inheriting spouse can be expected to retain this wealth for an average of four years before passing it to the next generation. Our analysis also shows that $83.5 trillion of wealth will be transferred in the next 20-25 years. We estimate that $9 trillion of this amount will be transferred horizontally between spouses, mostly in the Americas. More than 10% of the total $83.5 trillion is likely to be transferred to the next generation by women,” the report concludes.

Millionaires

Another relevant conclusion is that the number of millionaires is set to continue growing. In 2023, millionaires already represented 1.5% of the adult population analyzed by UBS. Specifically, the United States had the highest number, with nearly 22 million people (or 38% of the total), while mainland China was in second place with just over six million, roughly double the number in the United Kingdom, which ranked third.

“By 2028, the number of adults with wealth of more than one million dollars will have increased in 52 of the 56 markets in our sample, according to our estimates. In at least one market, Taiwan, this increase could reach 50%. Two notable exceptions are expected: the United Kingdom and the Netherlands,” the report concludes.