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“The Obesity Market Could Exceed $150 Billion in Size”

While technology stocks continue to attract investor interest, there is one sector that continues to deliver positive returns yet remains overlooked: healthcare. “It’s a sector that has been out of favor for several years now, and this situation became even more pronounced over the past twelve months,” explains Dan Lyons, co-manager of the Global Life Sciences strategy at Janus Henderson. Lyons notes that the sector is currently trading at its lowest level in the past 25 years.

Funds Society sat down with Lyons in October 2024 to discuss the team’s outlook at the time, when the U.S. presidential election was still a month away. Since last November, the manager acknowledges that concerns around regulation and drug pricing have weighed on a “substantial portion” of the sector. On top of that, tariff announcements have added another layer of complexity for these companies, many of which operate multinational businesses. All of this has led to outflows from the sector, putting pressure on valuations. “We could call it a perfect storm of negativity for our sector,” concludes Lyons.

Throughout the conversation, the manager repeatedly emphasizes that the core of their investment process lies in identifying the most innovative companies in the health segment and then determining whether they are trading at attractive valuations. Within the sector, biotech firms are generally the innovation leaders: “Two-thirds of the industry’s pipeline comes from biotech. Last year, over 80% of new launches came from the biotech industry,” Lyons illustrates, explaining why the Global Life Sciences strategy typically has a structural overweight in this segment. The manager anticipates further innovation in 2026, citing medical advances in early treatment of Alzheimer’s disease, cardiovascular conditions, and new therapies for pancreatic cancer.

It is worth noting, however, that due to the inherently riskier nature of their business, biotech companies also tend to suffer the most in uncertain markets. This has happened again: the sector plunged 50% between November 2025 and April 2024, although it has since rebounded sharply. “It has been a challenging environment for our portfolios,” the manager admits. Still, he prefers to see the glass as half full, interpreting the sector’s recovery as a sign that the market may be starting to believe “the regulatory environment might not be that bad after all.”

How Has the Portfolio Rotated in 2025?

It’s been a year of two halves. In the first half, we rotated toward companies in earlier commercial stages and, to some extent, scaled back our enthusiasm for early-stage development firms that weren’t being properly rewarded for taking on risk.

As we enter the second half of the year, we’re seeing that the market is more willing to take on risk. The context of interest rates has also helped, with the first rate cuts. As a result, we are now slowly increasing our exposure again to early-stage development companies. We’re also excited about companies in the late-stage development phase with solid access to capital. These are firms developing new drugs for rare diseases, such as Avidity or Dyne.

Last Year You Were Very Bullish on Obesity Treatments. Do You Still Hold That View?

We remain very bullish on the potential size of this market opportunity. We believe the obesity market could exceed $150 billion. There is more than enough room to capture even a 10% market share.

We’ve seen leadership, particularly from companies like Eli Lilly, consolidate even further. The next-generation product it launched last year, ZepFound, is capturing three-quarters of new patients—it has become the preferred choice for people starting obesity treatment. And we believe the market could open up even more now that they’re able to launch the drug both in the U.S. and globally, making it more accessible.

Last year, Eli Lilly also reported positive phase 3 data for an oral drug using the same mechanism, called Orfoglipron. So during 2026, we’ll see the launch of an oral option, which will help expand access and somewhat democratize the market, as it won’t require cold chain storage.

We are playing this theme both through large companies like Eli Lilly and smaller biotechs, such as Medcera, which we hold in the portfolio. They were in early-stage development of a similar drug to Eli Lilly’s, and they were acquired by Pfizer, which will now lead the remaining trials.

Innovation Is the Compass of Your Research Process. Where Is It Pointing in 2025?

It’s truly been a year of tremendous breakthroughs. In this uncertain environment, we’ve focused heavily on companies that have recently received drug approvals and have successfully delivered those treatments to patients despite the regulatory noise. Many of these companies are seeing spectacular new drug launches. One example is Madrigal, which launched a drug called Rosdifra (also known as MASH) for fatty liver disease. It’s the first of its kind, and it’s on track to become a blockbuster, since many patients in the U.S. suffer from this condition, which is a major cause of liver transplants. If this disease can be treated early and transplants avoided, it results in huge savings for the healthcare system and better outcomes for patients.

Another example is Verona (VRNA), a UK-based biotech that developed a new type of medication for COPD, a nebulized therapy that’s gaining strong market traction. It’s a new area meeting an unmet need. The company was just acquired by Merck for over $10 billion. In the case of Verona and Madrigal, we’re talking about market opportunities between $5 billion and $10 billion.

Another emerging market is autoimmune diseases, where companies like Argenx are active. It already has a drug with $4 billion revenue potential. But this is on a different scale—it’s like the NVIDIA of the healthcare sector.

So, Do You Anticipate More M&A in the Healthcare Market?

Yes, because big pharma needs additional revenue and is looking to biotech companies to get it. Firms like Pfizer or Bristol-Myers are losing patent exclusivity and seeing sales fall. They need to bring in these new products. Across the industry, we estimate they have around $1 trillion in spending power, which allows them to engage in many deals to build their product pipelines.

We are already seeing this reflected in our portfolios, with more big pharmaceutical companies becoming comfortable with the regulatory and pricing environment, as they are starting to deploy capital. We’ve seen over five of the companies in our portfolio involved in M&A activity in the second half of the year.

What Impact Could the Big Beautiful Bill Have on the Pharmaceutical Sector?

We’ve come from several years of expanding healthcare coverage, with more people gaining access to healthcare services. This law has started a period of contraction, reducing access to some of those services. There’s a lot of work to be done in Congress to avoid that, because it’s extremely unpopular to remove a benefit people already enjoy. But in percentage terms, the contraction is relatively small, and I believe it’s very manageable.

The law also includes some positive aspects that have helped the sector. For example, for companies developing orphan drugs for rare diseases: under the previous IRA law, these producers faced the risk of future price caps, and the current legislation has corrected that.

You Have Kept Some Underperforming Companies in the Portfolio. Why?

When we hold companies going through challenges, as we have with United Healthcare, we always assess whether the valuation still looks attractive and whether the original compelling element of their business model remains. We also evaluate if they can return to more normalized margins. In United Healthcare’s case, we believe the return of the former management team can fix the situation, which is why we not only held the position but slightly increased it.

We’ve had similar experiences with another portfolio name—a company developing a vaccine for a market estimated at $7 billion that we believe will become the market leader. But due to controversy around vaccines and the anti-vaccine stance of Robert F. Kennedy, the company’s valuation is heavily depressed. We’ve held onto our investment because we don’t believe that market is going away.

Asia-Pacific: The Largest UCITS-Holding Region After Europe

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Asia Pacific largest UCITS holder — Canva

Within the European fund industry, the acronym UCITS enjoys great popularity and trust—but what about beyond Europe’s borders? The reality is that, according to aggregated data from the ECB, it is estimated that out of the €21.5 trillion held in UCITS and AIFs domiciled in the EU, €9.7 trillion corresponded to domestic funds. This means that €11.8 trillion are in the hands of investors outside the EU member states.

According to the latest report published by the European Fund and Asset Management Association (Efama) and prepared with exclusive data from Broadridge’s Global Market Intelligence (GMI) to analyze international UCITS distribution trends, thanks to the European passport regime, those €11.8 trillion are divided into two segments. On one hand, there are funds domiciled in EU countries and held by investors located in another member state, which reached €6.1 trillion at the end of 2024. On the other hand, there are those funds domiciled in the EU and held by investors located outside the EU, which reached €5.7 trillion.

“Over the past decade, the net assets of cross-border funds have grown considerably faster than those of domestic funds. While the assets of domestic funds increased by 83%, the assets of cross-border funds held in another EU country grew by 145%, and cross-border funds held outside the EU grew by 133%. Interestingly, in the past two years, the growth rate of cross-border funds outside the EU has outpaced that of intra-European cross-border funds, underscoring their increasing relevance on a global scale,” the report reveals.

According to the report, one of the main drivers behind this growth has been the increase in net sales. As the figures show, cross-border funds—especially those marketed outside the EU—have consistently attracted greater investment flows compared to domestic funds and cross-border funds within the EU.

Asia-Pacific: Largest Holder

One of the conclusions presented in the report is that, as of the end of June 2025, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 8.7% of cross-border UCITS holdings. Specifically, net UCITS assets in the region grew by 18% during 2024, although they declined slightly in the first half of 2025 (-4%).

“Over the past five years, cumulative asset growth has been 22%. This relatively moderate long-term growth reflects the impact of the sharp decline recorded in 2022, after which net assets took two years to fully recover. Net sales have generally been positive in recent years, with 2022 as the only exception,” the report explains.

Specifically, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and Taiwan are the main Asian markets for cross-border UCITS. According to the report, following widespread redemptions in 2022, Singapore and Taiwan drove the regional recovery in 2023, recording net inflows of €9 billion and €4 billion, respectively.

In 2024, total net inflows into Asia-Pacific rose significantly to €34 billion, supported by continued strong demand in Singapore (€12 billion) and Taiwan (€6 billion), as well as a notable recovery in Hong Kong, where investors contributed €11 billion in new net investments. During the first six months of 2025, this positive momentum continued, with significant net inflows into Singapore and Hong Kong totaling €7 billion.

Geographic Overview

Looking at other regions, it is notable that the countries of South America and Central America accounted for approximately 3.3% of cross-border UCITS holdings at the end of the first half of 2025. According to the report’s data, as of the end of June 2025, Latin American investors held €246 billion in cross-border UCITS, excluding ETFs, and net assets fell by approximately 8.5% in the first half of 2025, after growing by 15% the previous year and 24% over the past five years.

“Total holdings remain below their 2021 peak. Net sales have been relatively weak in recent years, with two consecutive years of net outflows in 2022 and 2023. The market returned to positive territory in 2024, with net inflows of €4 billion, but so far in 2025, it has once again recorded net redemptions of €5 billion,” the document states.

Regarding the Middle East and Africa (MEA), the countries in this region accounted for approximately 1.2% of cross-border UCITS holdings at the end of June 2025. In the case of North America, the United States and Canada account for only 0.2% of cross-border UCITS holdings. “All of these are concentrated in Canada, since, although the United States is the largest fund market in the world—with total net assets exceeding €40 trillion in 2024—regulatory barriers effectively prevent the distribution of non-U.S. funds in that country,” the report explains.

It also highlights that U.S. fund managers widely use UCITS to market funds to investors outside the U.S., given that funds domiciled in that country cannot easily be marketed to international investors for tax and regulatory reasons. According to the report, it is also important to note that U.S. investors residing outside the U.S. do invest in UCITS, mainly through wealth managers in Latin America, offshore jurisdictions, or international regions.

Lastly, the offshore region represents 0.8% of European cross-border UCITS and includes several Caribbean countries and the Channel Islands, commonly defined as offshore financial centers, such as Bermuda, Curaçao, Guernsey, and Jersey. There is also an “unassigned international” region, as referred to in the report, which represents approximately 17.6% of cross-border UCITS assets that cannot be linked to a specific end-investor location.

Capital Strategies Partners Reaches a Distribution Agreement with ARK Invest

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Capital Strategies Partners has signed an agreement to distribute the investment products of ARK Investment Management (ARK Invest or ARK) in Spain, Portugal, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Brazil.

The asset manager highlights that ARK Invest, founded in 2014 by Cathie Wood, “has established itself as one of the most globally recognized asset managers, thanks to its exclusive focus on disruptive innovation.” Its strategies, centered on artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, blockchain, and next-generation energy, position it as a reference for investors seeking exposure to the drivers of technological and economic change.

“We are very pleased to welcome ARK to our group of represented managers. Cathie Wood and her team bring a distinctive vision, aligned with our mission to offer investors innovative, high-quality solutions,” said Daniel Rubio, founder and CEO of Capital Strategies Partners, following the announcement.

For her part, Cathie Wood, founder, CEO, and Chief Investment Officer of ARK Invest, commented: “At ARK, our mission has always been to democratize access to the most relevant investment opportunities of our time, driven by disruptive innovation. We already work with investors in Europe and Latin America, and this collaboration with Capital Strategies strengthens our ability to expand that mission in Spain, Portugal, and other key markets in the region. This agreement allows us to empower more investors to participate in the technological transformations that are redefining the world, and to position their portfolios with a long-term growth vision.”

According to Stuart Forbes, Global Head of Distribution at ARK Invest, this agreement with Capital Strategies builds on their established presence in Europe and enables them to strengthen their reach in Latin America, especially in Chile, Peru, Brazil, and Colombia. “Thanks to their local expertise and trusted relationships, we can bring our research-based strategies to new investors and expand access to the disruptive technologies that will define the economy of the future,” he noted.

U.S. and China: Staged Performance or Possible Trade Escalation?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

In this last quarter of the year, geopolitical developments appear to have shifted the focus away from tensions surrounding the U.S. administration’s tariff policy. However, since last week, we have witnessed a resurgence of tensions between China and the United States, occurring just ahead of the scheduled meeting between Trump and Xi at the APEC summit later this month.

What happened? “On Thursday, October 9, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced the expansion of restrictions on rare earth exports, extending the limitations to foreign exporters and technologies related to rare earth elements. The following day, the Trump administration responded swiftly by imposing a 100% tariff on all Chinese products, in addition to those already in place,” summarizes Elizabeth Kwik, Director of Asian Equity Investments at Aberdeen Investments.

As clarified by Nannette Hechler-Fayd’herbe, Head of Investment Strategy, Sustainability and Research, CIO EMEA at Lombard Odier, since a meeting in Geneva in May 2025, the United States and China had been consistently postponing the implementation of tariffs and import restrictions that had been mutually threatened. According to the expert, with just a few weeks remaining until the formal end—on November 10—of the negotiated truce, the diplomatic tone has shifted, and the stakes are now higher.

“In the short term, Chinese restrictions complicate U.S. efforts to stockpile rare earth elements—metallic components essential for everything from electric vehicle motor magnets to smartphones, medical imaging, and missiles. In response, President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, as well as new export controls on critical chips and software aimed at curbing China’s technological advances starting November 1, and suggested he might cancel a planned meeting with President Xi Jinping. More recent comments from both sides have been more conciliatory, but escalation remains possible, and we expect a volatile few weeks ahead,” adds Hechler-Fayd’herbe.

In her view, this escalation in trade relations should not be underestimated, although it could be interpreted as a prelude to negotiations ahead of a series of deadlines. “Our expectation is that the United States and China will reach a compromise, given their level of economic interdependence; however, the risks of further escalation persist, so we are closely monitoring every development,” she notes.

Impact for Investors
Following last week’s events, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research at Julius Baer, believes that what was supposed to be a refreshing pause for the markets felt more like an “ice bucket challenge” by the close of last Friday’s session.

In his assessment, the impact was uncomfortable but ultimately healthy. “As in previous instances, we expect an eventual resumption of dialogue and some symbolic concession thereafter. From an investment perspective, we advise staying calm. The political calendar, inflation dynamics, and sentiment constraints argue against a prolonged tariff campaign. Volatility at this stage should be seen as part of the normalization process, not the beginning of a new bearish phase. The ‘cold shower’ could ultimately prove to be the healthiest outcome of all,” states Gattiker.

In this context, investors have shown concern and, as a result, Chinese stocks and Asian markets in general have suffered. “Although part of this may be short-term noise and profit-taking after the recent rally, the retaliatory measures may be more about posturing ahead of the summit. There is a possibility that both sides will ultimately find common ground to limit the impact on the markets and, in particular, Trump has previously calmed tensions when U.S. stocks and bonds began to suffer the consequences of such escalations. Moreover, on Sunday, he struck a more conciliatory tone. We will continue to closely monitor the situation,” acknowledges the Director of Asian Equity Investments at Aberdeen Investments.

Masterclass on CLOs: Everything You Need to Know Before Investing in This Asset

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Registro cripto bajo MiCA en la CNMV — Canva

CLOs Have Become the Third Most Liquid Fixed Income Market in the U.S., Behind Only Treasuries and Agency MBS. This was stated by John Kerschner, Global Head of Securitized Products and Portfolio Manager at Janus Henderson, during the Madrid Investment Summit held by the firm in September.

However, Kerschner acknowledged that this asset still offers a certain complexity premium, as not all investors are equally informed about how it works. The firm has been making ongoing efforts to educate its clients—even if that means this premium disappears—because they believe the investment opportunity in CLOs is more alive than ever. Thus, Kerschner—who manages the world’s largest actively managed CLO ETF (JAAA)—used his appearance at the event to give a class on the structuring, functioning, and characteristics of these investment instruments.

Demystifying Asset Securitization

His presentation began by addressing the very concept of securitization, with the manager noting that “it’s a big word that for some is complicated and, for others, even scary—but it doesn’t have to be.”

“Securitization is, and always has been, about gathering a pool of loans, bundling them, establishing a framework for them, and then taking the cash flow from those loans and splitting it into different levels of risk and return. That’s it. Nothing more, nothing less,” he explained simply. This applies to an auto loan, a mortgage, real estate credit, or a corporate loan—though the process has evolved over time.

Kerschner recalled that the loan market was born in the 1980s as a solution for companies that were too small or illiquid to access financing through high-yield debt. Initially, these companies turned to banks for loans, although under very strict conditions. Later, Wall Street saw an opportunity in this market, and several players started what we now know as the leveraged loan market. “The problem is that leveraged loans are fairly risky, even today, with an average rating of B,” the manager pointed out.

Continuing his explanation, Kerschner noted that “even with all the institutional investors available, the leveraged loan market began to run out of investors.” At that point, the idea emerged to use securitization technology—already present in ABS, mortgages, or real estate markets—and apply it to corporate loans. “That’s the magic of CLOs: you take something that’s relatively risky, somewhat liquid and volatile, and create other assets that are much safer, more liquid, less volatile, and with better ratings,” he summarized.

Key Facts About CLOs

The expert shared several important data points to better understand the size and behavior of this asset class. For starters, he estimates that auto ABS represent a $200 billion market and have not experienced any defaults since the late 1980s—“not even in the AAA segment.” He clarified that while some loans did default, “the securitization was structured to handle it,” which is why CLOs have not seen a single default in 40 years. Furthermore, Kerschner added, “since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), no investment-grade CLO has ever defaulted.” “The safety works, and securitization works most of the time—especially in CLOs,” he concluded.

He pointed out that U.S. GDP amounts to $30 trillion and the EU’s to $20 trillion, while the U.S. securitization market is valued at $5 trillion—that is, about 17% of GDP “excluding agency mortgages.” In Europe, securitizations amount to just $660 billion. In short, the U.S. market is five times larger than the European one, and according to Kerschner, this distinction matters because “loans that are not securitized sit on the balance sheets of European banks; that’s why European banks are not as dynamic as U.S. banks.”

Overall, based on the expert’s data, the global CLO market is valued at $1.7 trillion, while the European market stands at about $400 billion. “Obviously, it’s not as large as the U.S. market, but proportionally it’s fairly close,” he concluded.

What Makes CLOs Special?

The remainder of Kerschner’s masterclass focused on the four main characteristics attributed to CLOs: return, safety, liquidity, and diversification.

On the first point, the expert noted that an asset combining higher yield with lower volatility clearly points to a better Sharpe ratio; CLO returns exceed those of corporate credit, with lower volatility. While acknowledging that CLO yields are floating, “even if you hedged that component, they would still show lower volatility,” he explained.

Regarding safety, Kerschner stressed that no AAA CLO has defaulted since the GFC, thanks to tightened rating agency criteria.

On liquidity, the portfolio manager highlighted the firm’s experience trading CLOs during the extreme market conditions of March 2020 at the onset of the pandemic. “This experience—especially with AAA CLOs—gave us the confidence to launch JAAA in October 2020.” Today, this ETF can trade “hundreds of millions in market value in a single day, with a one-cent bid-ask spread,” and has reached a record volume of $1.2 billion in a single session. During the significant volatility seen on April’s Liberation Day, the ETF dropped between 1% and 2%, leading the manager to note that this vehicle “has more volatility than cash, but only during dislocations.” “CLOs are much more liquid than people think,” the expert concluded.

Finally, on diversification, Kerschner stated that “CLOs are quite similar to corporate credit but offer much better diversification than leveraged loans and high yield.” He believes this is especially relevant for investors in fixed income products based on Aggregate-type indexes, where CLOs are not represented due to their floating-rate nature. “Many people are underexposed to this asset class simply because it’s not in the indexes,” the manager concluded.

Outlook for Latin America: Electoral Processes, the Dollar, Trade Tensions, and Inflation

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

According to the latest report by Solunion, a credit insurance company offering services related to commercial risk management, the region is experiencing a combination of consumption dependence, low investment, and the challenge of balancing external competitiveness with internal purchasing power, all within a context of persistent inflation, political tensions, and increased exposure to trade and security risks.

Among its findings, the report notes that Latin America’s growth in recent years has been driven by the boom in commodities, increased agricultural volumes, and strong domestic consumption—factors that led to upward revisions in economic forecasts between 2022 and 2024. However, this expansion period appears to be giving way in 2025 to a phase of stalled growth.

Key Findings

“Systemic uncertainty—stemming from trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and financial volatility—is combining with the appreciation of regional currencies against the dollar. This movement, while improving internal purchasing power, reduces export competitiveness and encourages an increase in imports, displacing local production,” notes Luca Moneta, Senior Economist for Emerging Markets & Country Risk at Allianz Trade, one of Solunion‘s shareholders.

According to the report, in some cases, this effect has been amplified by the acceleration of trade operations to avoid tariffs, adding volatility to trade flows. For 2025, stagnant growth is expected in many economies, as well as additional risks in 2026 for key markets like Mexico and Brazil, where factors such as slowing consumption, declining remittances, and falling commodity prices could negatively impact economic activity.

“This is a scenario in which Argentina gains prominence and partially offsets the lower contribution of these two economies to regional growth,” the report adds.

According to the report, inflation remains one of the region’s main challenges, with persistent pressures in several markets despite restrictive monetary policies. In various countries, benchmark interest rates appear to have reached their peak and, based on central bank communications, could begin to decline. The average real interest rate in the region remains approximately two percentage points above that of the United States, which has contributed to the strength of local currencies.

“If interest rates were to fall prematurely and the Fed did not resume an expansionary cycle, local currencies could weaken and inflation could rise. In more dollarized economies such as Mexico and Chile, the additional boost to growth would be almost entirely offset by this price effect,” the report explains.

A Tightly Packed Electoral Calendar

A key point in the report is that the 2025–2026 electoral cycle in Latin America is unfolding in a context of growing polarization and a lack of clear majorities—a widespread phenomenon that adds uncertainty to the economic outlook.

“Insecurity is another factor impacting investment, especially in consumer-oriented sectors. Added to this is a rise in international litigation, including cases initiated between countries and investors within the region itself, with particular impact on strategic sectors such as mining and energy resources,” it states.

How Do These Factors Impact Each Economy?

From a country-by-country perspective, the report highlights that Mexico has weathered U.S. protectionism better than expected; however, consumer confidence declined following the U.S. elections. The strength of the peso has enabled some degree of monetary easing, although the upcoming 2026 review of the USMCA (T-MEC) represents a significant challenge for trade relations and investor sentiment.

In the case of Brazil, the country is experiencing modest but steady growth, driven by resilient domestic consumption and higher-than-anticipated public spending. Nonetheless, the economy faces headwinds in the form of a credit slowdown and persistent investment difficulties, which could limit the sustainability of its current growth trajectory.

For its part, Argentina is beginning to emerge from recession thanks to economic stabilization measures, although inflation is expected to remain high (24% by the end of 2025).

In Chile, consumption is rebounding due to the revaluation of copper and macroeconomic stability, but investment is constrained by the volatility of the peso.

Colombia maintains growth driven by consumption (77% of GDP), but suffers from low fixed investment, elevated fiscal risk, and political uncertainty.

Lastly, Peru maintains macroeconomic stability, with inflation below 2% and low unemployment, although domestic consumption remains weak and mining output is declining.

Ecuador, meanwhile, is showing signs of recovery, with cocoa emerging as a new key sector in primary production.

Toward More Balanced Growth

The report’s main conclusion is that growth in the region is ongoing, but overly reliant on consumption and lacking sufficient investment—with the exception of countries like Peru.

“The main challenges are high interest rates, external factors limiting room for maneuver, and a politically and socially uncertain environment. The key to sustaining the recovery will be to diversify production and improve investment conditions, thereby reducing exposure to internal and external risks that could hinder momentum,” the report argues.

Five Countries That Are Redefining the Digital Asset Landscape

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

As Cryptocurrency Markets Rebound in 2025—Driven by Price Surges and the Growth of Financial Products Like Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States—the True Transformation Is Taking Place in a Less Visible Arena: The Geopolitical One. According to WisdomTree, Beyond Charts and Headlines, a Global Race for Digital Asset Dominance Is Taking Shape.

“Nigeria, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, and South Korea are positioning themselves as strategic hubs for the future of cryptocurrencies. They’re not just adopting these assets—they’re operationalizing them,” says Dovile Silenskyte, Director of Digital Asset Research at WisdomTree. According to the expert, Nigeria has become “ground zero” for cryptocurrencies as a financial lifeline.

“In Lagos, Nigeria’s economic capital, cryptocurrency use is not a speculative trend but a vital financial tool. Nigeria tops global adoption rankings, driven by a combination of a digitally active youth, persistent inflation, and ineffective banking systems. Peer-to-peer use of stablecoins (especially USDT on Tron) is booming. Moreover, despite past hostility from the Central Bank, users have developed parallel pathways. The central bank’s digital currency (CBDC) pilot project, the eNaira, has failed—reaffirming the strong popular preference for decentralized alternatives,” comments Silenskyte.

U.S. and United Arab Emirates: Regulation and Testing

In the case of the United States, it remains the epicenter of global crypto financing, with unmatched institutional strength. “U.S. regulation continues to be a complex landscape, but institutional capital has begun to shape the ecosystem. The 2024 approval of spot bitcoin ETFs triggered an inflow of more than $40 billion in assets under management,” she recalls.

In this regard, major asset managers are building integrated crypto infrastructures: from tokenized treasuries to stablecoin-based solutions. “Another noteworthy development is that the state of New Hampshire made history by allowing public investments in large-cap cryptocurrencies,” the expert adds.

As for the United Arab Emirates, she notes that they have established themselves as a global-scale regulatory laboratory for digital assets. She believes Dubai is not waiting for the West to lead the way. With the Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) at the helm, the UAE has established a clear and business-friendly licensing regime, attracting major platforms like Binance, OKX, and Bybit.

Additionally, blockchain technology is being integrated into trade finance and the real estate sector through national digital economy initiatives.

Brazil and South Korea: Two Regional Leaders

“The case of Brazil shows that the combination of technological innovation and progressive regulation leads to real adoption. The country is moving beyond being just a Latin American benchmark to becoming a central node in the regional crypto economy. PIX, the central bank’s instant payment system, integrates seamlessly with stablecoin flows; exchanges such as Mercado Bitcoin are scaling under a clear regime with tax incentives; and the digital Brazilian real (DREX) and tokenized public debt instruments are under development,” she explains.

Finally, she highlights that the South Korean crypto scene combines one of the world’s strongest retail appetites with strict regulatory oversight. It represents a mature, liquid, and increasingly regulated ecosystem that is key to the crypto map of Asia. “Local exchanges report volumes comparable to the stock market. Additionally, authorities enforce strict rules on verified identity trading, taxation, and licensing, and the country is also advancing regulatory frameworks for security tokens and DeFi,” she concludes.

Principal Partners With Barings to Strengthen Its Private Credit Platform

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Principal Financial Group has announced a strategic partnership with Barings to expand Principal’s portfolio through an allocation of up to $1 billion in high-quality customized private investments. According to the statement, the investments will be made through a separately managed account and a co-investment structure. The co-investment structure will be managed by Principal AM, Principal’s dedicated in-house asset manager, which oversees approximately 95% of Principal’s general account portfolio.

“This announcement is part of our broader approach to private markets at Principal: building selective partnerships that complement our internal expertise in credit analysis and portfolio management, within differentiated structures and assets,” said Kamal Bhatia, President and CEO of Principal Asset Management.

The partnership will focus on high-quality customized private investments, with Barings serving as the originating manager of the assets. This strengthens Principal’s commitment to enhancing the company’s general account through diversified and scalable private credit strategies, offering strong risk-adjusted returns aligned with its liabilities. Partnering with Barings Portfolio Finance, a specialized direct originator with deep experience and capability, and combining it with the strong credit analysis and portfolio management expertise of Principal Asset Management, creates a beneficial structure for the company.

“We continue to look for ways to evolve and diversify our private credit portfolio in ways that add value. This partnership deepens our presence in the private markets ecosystem, aligning our strong insurance entity and internal asset management platform with the strengths of an experienced external manager,” added Ken McCullum, Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer of Principal Financial Group.

For his part, Dadong Yan, Head of Barings Portfolio Finance, commented: “We are excited to partner with Principal and bring the direct investment origination platform of Barings Portfolio Finance to benefit Principal’s policyholders and shareholders. In a shifting market environment, Barings Portfolio Finance is uniquely positioned to understand the evolving needs of insurers.”

The partnership with Barings allows Principal to access a differentiated segment of the private credit market, complementing the internal capabilities of Principal Asset Management in real estate, direct middle-market lending, private corporate credit, and infrastructure credit.

Gold: No Grounds for a Correction?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

This week, gold surpassed the historic threshold of $4,000 per ounce. With an increase of more than 50% so far this year, prices are on track to post their best performance since 1979, the year when gold reached its previous all-time high adjusted for inflation.

So far this year alone, gold has already reached 52 new all-time highs. The year-to-date return is approaching 54%, already marking the highest annual return since 1979. The interest is undeniable—in September, gold ETFs recorded their best month ever. Net inflows of $17.3 billion were led by North America and Europe, with Asia also joining the rally with $2.1 billion.

In contrast to these highs, the analysis by José Manuel Marín Cebrián, economist and founder of Fortuna SFP, offers another perspective: it’s not that gold is expensive, but rather that money is losing value. “Gold is a barometer. Its quantity in the world increases slowly—around 1.5% annually through mining production—making it a store of value against currencies that multiply under monetary policies. When gold rises in dollars, euros, or yen, it is actually revealing the loss of purchasing power of those currencies. It’s a mirror that reflects distrust in the current monetary system,” he argues.

A Favorable Environment

Whether or not there are doubts about the current monetary system, the reality is that we are in a favorable environment for gold’s performance. “The slowdown in the U.S. economy, along with expectations of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, should continue to attract safe-haven seekers to the market, while central bank purchases should also remain strong. We see very limited likelihood of a major correction, although we believe a temporary pullback could occur due to bullish market sentiment. Overall, we reiterate our constructive view and raise our price targets,” argues Carsten Menke, head of next generation research at Julius Baer.

According to the experts, this movement reflects a consistent trend of portfolio reallocation toward safe-haven assets, in a context of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. “In this scenario, the precious metal reaffirms its role as the leading store of value amid weakening global growth prospects,” states Antonio Montiel, head of analysis at ATFX Education.

Will There Be a Correction?

In Menke’s opinion, given price developments over the past two weeks, speculative positioning in futures has likely turned more bullish, with trend followers and technical traders entering the market ahead of the $4,000 per ounce milestone.

For Regina Hammerschmid, commodities portfolio manager at Vontobel, downside risk is minimal. “Given all the structural factors—weakening dollar, concerns over U.S. debt and government shutdown, Fed independence, elevated geopolitical risks—and cyclical ones—weakening U.S. labor market, Fed rate cuts, growth concerns driven by tariffs—pushing gold higher,” says Hammerschmid.

Still, what could stop this record rally? According to Julius Baer’s expert, historically, major corrections have almost always been triggered by improvements in economic outlooks and tighter monetary policies. “Since the Federal Reserve has just resumed its monetary easing cycle, we see very limited likelihood of that scenario repeating. A more probable scenario would be speculative fatigue, meaning all the good news is already priced in and this last leg of the rally is a case of ‘too fast, too far,’” he notes.

That said, he believes such fatigue should not trigger a correction, but rather a temporary and short-term pullback, as the fundamental environment for gold remains favorable. “Assuming a target gold allocation of 20% to 25%, in line with the global average, purchases should continue for another three to five years, according to our analysis. Therefore, we reiterate our long-term constructive view on gold, raising our price targets to $4,150 per ounce in three months and $4,500 per ounce in twelve months,” estimates Menke.

Getting Exposure to Gold

To take advantage of this rally, Marco Mencini, head of analysis at Plenisfer Investments (Generali Investments), believes the market offers two financial alternatives for gaining gold exposure: producer stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

“Despite the strong performance of producer stocks so far this year, their valuations remain attractive. Many companies are generating free cash flow (FCF) yields between 7% and 9% (high single digits) and between 10% and 12% (low double digits) relative to their market capitalization. The figure varies by company, but considering the low leverage levels, current levels offer favorable prospects. It is often thought that the profitability of gold producers cannot keep pace with the metal’s price. However, the EBITDA data from major sector ETFs—like the GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF)—disproves this perception,” says Mencini.

On approaching this opportunity through equities, James Luke, commodities fund manager at Schroders, highlights that gold miners are generating record margins and have significantly strengthened their balance sheets, yet their valuations are still not fully priced in. “The market is only just beginning to pay attention to them. Despite the recent boom, we must not forget that gold equity funds have seen net outflows of nearly $5 billion over the past year and a half. Investors who are not invested wonder if they missed the boat, and those who are invested wonder if it’s time to sell,” he comments.

In his view, gold stocks are not expensive and represent a good investment opportunity, at least from three perspectives: “The performance of gold stocks remains very disconnected from record free cash flow margins (which continue to grow). Additionally, gold miners are trading at low-adjusted valuations and are significantly strengthening their balance sheets. And finally, there are no signs of euphoria in the sector—rather the opposite.”

Collapse in France: A Local Issue, With Little Sign of Contagion

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Renta variable de income segun BNY25 — Canva

Political Noise Rises in France After Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu Submitted His Government’s Resignation on Monday to President Emmanuel Macron, less than a month after taking office and just one day after presenting the new composition of his cabinet. The question now is: what impact will this new political collapse have on European markets?

So far, the market’s reaction has been relatively moderate following the resignation of French Prime Minister Lecornu, less than a month after his appointment. “The euro is down 0.6%, French government bond spreads have risen 5 basis points in the intermediate and long maturities, and credit spreads of major French issuers have widened by just a couple of basis points. As for equities, the CAC 40 is down less than 1.5%, with banks and utilities the most affected, while most of the French large-cap index heavyweights have dropped less than 1%,” summarizes Kevin Thozet, member of the Investment Committee at Carmignac.

For now, investors are passively following the twists and turns of French politics, trying to separate noise from signal. “French Treasury issues have not been affected by this lack of visibility, and we still believe this interest rate level represents an entry point. However, we observe a slight appreciation of the dollar, reminiscent of its safe-haven status, as well as the upcoming rating agency calendars, which could add noise from time to time. Moody’s will announce its decision on October 24, and Standard & Poor’s on November 28,” comments Mabrouk Chetouane, Head of Global Market Strategy at Natixis IM Solutions (Natixis IM).

In the view of Peter Goves, Head of Developed Markets Sovereign Debt Research at MFS Investment Management, this situation adds a new layer of uncertainty to the markets. “The situation is obviously very fluid, and it is uncertain what exactly will happen next. This is one of the reasons why OAT-Bund spreads remain wide and could widen further,” he says. In the short term, he sees it as plausible that Macron may appoint a new prime minister, but “in any case, all the fundamental issues remain: how to pass a budget in a highly fragmented parliament.”

Goves shares this reflection while acknowledging the rising possibility of new parliamentary elections, the outcome of which is inherently unknowable, but represents an event risk that could result in RN gaining seats. “This remains a French matter, with limited contagion effects for the euro area as a whole. Our main takeaway is that it is difficult to argue for a significant narrowing of the OAT-Bund spread at this time,” he adds.

Experts from asset managers agree that increased uncertainty about how the political situation will be resolved does not support market sentiment. “This morning, the spreads between French treasury bonds — OATs (Obligations Assimilables du Trésor) — and German bonds have approached the historical highs of December 2024, which we view as fair, as it reflects rising electoral risk. France is trading notably above its European peers. For a further increase, one would expect new elections and a decisive swing in the polls to the right or left,” argues Alex Everett, Senior Investment Director at Aberdeen Investments. According to his analysis, overall OAT bond trading remains fairly orderly despite the political noise. “Markets are waiting for President Macron’s next move,” Everett notes.

For Michaël Nizard, Head of Multi-Asset & Overlay, and Nabil Milali, Portfolio Manager Multi-Asset & Overlay at Edmond de Rothschild AM, this political turmoil “could intensify upward pressure on French interest rates and deepen the undervaluation of the CAC 40, with significant risk that tensions spread to other assets such as French banks, the euro, and peripheral spreads.”

Possible Scenarios

It is clear that Lecornu’s resignation worsens France’s political and economic unrest. “The current political turmoil increases the risk of delays in approving the 2026 budget and significantly limits the chances of the upcoming budget including meaningful fiscal consolidation measures. This uncertainty further undermines confidence in the sustained execution of the government’s consolidation plan and raises the likelihood of fiscal outcomes being worse than expected,” comments Thomas Gillet, Director and Analyst of the Public and Sovereign Sector at Scope Ratings.

According to the expert from Aberdeen Investments, for opposition parties, this is further proof that Macron-aligned groups cannot lead Parliament, and so calls for new elections will intensify.

“New elections would further reduce President Macron’s control, so appointing another prime minister may be his preferred option. However, the discontent expressed by nearly all parties — including the Republicans and Socialists, who had so far shown more support — makes it clear that there is very little interest in reaching a consensus. At this moment, we see little reason for political optimism, as even the status quo of a new prime minister would likely only further incite opposition party anger,” he argues.

“Although the likelihood of the president resigning seems low, neither a new dissolution of the National Assembly nor the appointment of a more left-leaning prime minister can be ruled out. The latter scenario would reopen the possibility of additional fiscal measures on companies, a factor we continue to monitor closely in our portfolios,” says Flavien del Pino, Head of BDL Capital Management for Spain.

For his part, Gillet explains that President Macron now faces a limited number of options: appoint another prime minister to attempt new coalition negotiations or call early legislative elections. “However, growing political fragmentation and polarization, along with upcoming electoral milestones, are making France’s political outlook increasingly complex, raising the risk of greater short-term instability,” he notes.