Inflation: What to Expect in the Short, Medium and Long Term

Thornburg Investment Management's vision


  1. "My expectation is that inflation for this cycle peaks in the next one to three months. There are reasons to think inflation will be a little bit higher for the next month or two, but after that, there are a lot of forces that are going to bring both headline and core inflation down in the medium term.  However, longer term, inflation may not return to the historical trendline of 2 to 3% per annum, where it has been for several decades."
  2. "The market will continue to debate where inflation is headed, but there is reasonable confidence (70% likelihood in our view) that in the next month or two there will still be high inflation prints. In the subsequent two to twelve months, we believe there is a 40 to 50% likelihood that inflation will moderate, and rates will climb slowly or hold."