Thornburg Investment Management's vision

Inflation: What to Expect in the Short, Medium and Long Term

Date:

  1. "My expectation is that inflation for this cycle peaks in the next one to three months. There are reasons to think inflation will be a little bit higher for the next month or two, but after that, there are a lot of forces that are going to bring both headline and core inflation down in the medium term.  However, longer term, inflation may not return to the historical trendline of 2 to 3% per annum, where it has been for several decades."
  2. "The market will continue to debate where inflation is headed, but there is reasonable confidence (70% likelihood in our view) that in the next month or two there will still be high inflation prints. In the subsequent two to twelve months, we believe there is a 40 to 50% likelihood that inflation will moderate, and rates will climb slowly or hold."