The assets managed by the AFOREs grew by 26% in dollars in the year to September, reaching 423 billion dollars. This growth is partly due to the gradual increase in mandatory contributions that began in 2023 and will conclude in 2030, rising from 6.5% to 15% of the base salary, in accordance with the pension system reform.
Additionally, the drop in interest rates and the rise in stock markets favored the revaluation of portfolios. The 10-year Mexican bond alone went from 10.45% to 8.60% on October 9.
According to the estimate by J.P. Morgan Asset Management from February 2024, the reforms could bring AFORE assets to 659 billion dollars by 2030. Meanwhile, Santander Corporate & Investment Banking—in its February 2023 estimate—projects a balance of 983 billion by 2035.
Although investments in alternatives by Mexican AFOREs continue to grow in amount, their weight within portfolios has decreased. J.P. Morgan Asset Management and Santander Corporate & Investment Banking estimate that the assets will continue to increase.
AFOREs’ investments in alternatives (locally known as structured instruments) rose from 30 billion dollars in 2024 to 34.7 billion as of September 2025, implying a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.8% in dollars between December 2020 and September 2025.
In the past four years, new investments in alternatives have remained above 4 billion dollars annually, within a range of 4.1 to 4.6 billion; in 2025, the year-to-date total amounts to 4.5 billion.
At the portfolio level, exposure to alternatives went from 8.9% in December 2024 to 8.2% in September 2025, showing a slight percentage decrease despite the nominal increase.
Regulatory and Operational Factors Behind the Slowdown
Although the growth trend continues, the relative decrease is due to several factors that occurred at the end of 2024 and this year.
First, in October 2024, a 10% increase in the investment limit for alternatives was authorized, although its implementation has been delayed by internal regulatory requirements and the need to adjust certain legal aspects of the Investment Regime.
In particular, some market participants misinterpreted the current wording to mean that the AFOREs would assume responsibility for potential losses in the funds in which they invest. In reality, the modification aims to strengthen the sanctioning regime regarding the authorization and monitoring of structured investments—that is, to reinforce obligations already included in the Circular Única Financiera (CUF), elevating them to the Regime level in order to apply more severe penalties in case of non-compliance. Nonetheless, to avoid confusion, the authority is currently working on adjusting the text and relocating the paragraph so that it is not associated with matters of restitution.
Additionally, in June 2025, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury designated CI Banco, Intercam, and Vector Casa de Bolsa as “primary money laundering concerns” linked to the illicit trafficking of opioids. This measure directly affected the AFOREs, as it limited the operation of the trusts through which they channel their investments in private equity, FIBRAs, and other vehicles.
Correspondent banks and international intermediaries temporarily suspended operations with these institutions, affecting their fiduciary capacity and foreign currency operations.
CI Banco alone managed about 90% of the vehicles through which the AFOREs invested in local and international private equity (more than 300 trusts were affected).
The process of replacing fiduciaries took several months, and operations only began to normalize around September.
For these reasons, the AFOREs reduced the pace of new investments in alternatives during 2025, despite a favorable environment in terms of rates and valuations.
As fiduciary changes are regularized and the regulatory framework is clarified, the allocation toward structured instruments is expected to regain momentum in 2026, supported by the sustained growth of managed assets and the increased flow of contributions resulting from the reform.
