Aegon Asset Management Insight

Duration risk: if not now, when?


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  1. A perfect post-pandemic storm struck the bond market, causing it to have one its worst years on record in 2022. Nothing lasts forever, though. Various factors have emerged that favour taking risk.
  2. As a key cornerstone for any investment decision, government bond market valuations are compelling again, creating a solid foundation for future total returns.
  3. Given the current macroeconomic outlook, the balance of risks would be biased towards interest rates being reduced rather than increased after they pause. Again, this would be supportive for duration risk.