According to preliminary estimates from Swiss Re Institute, global insured losses from natural catastrophes reached 80 billion dollars in the first half of 2025.
This figure represents nearly double the average of the past 10 years and more than half of the 150 billion dollars (in 2025 prices) projected for the entire year, following the long-term annual growth trend of 5-7%. Since natural catastrophe activity is typically higher in the second half of the year, total insured losses for 2025 could, therefore, exceed the projection.
The wildfires that devastated parts of Los Angeles County in January are by far the largest insured loss event from wildfires in history, with estimated insured losses of 40 billion dollars. This exceptional severity was due to a prolonged Santa Ana wind season combined with a lack of rainfall, which allowed the fires to spread rapidly and destroy more than 16,000 structures in an area with one of the highest concentrations of high-value single-family homes in the United States.
Wildfire losses have increased dramatically over the past decade, as rising temperatures, more frequent droughts, and changing precipitation patterns converge with suburban expansion and the concentration of high-value assets. Before 2015, insured losses related to wildfires accounted for around 1% of all natural catastrophe claims. Given that eight of the ten most costly wildfires on record occurred in the last ten years, the share of insured wildfire losses has risen to 7%.
Wildfires are a pervasive hazard in warm, dry regions with large expanses of vegetation, such as those in North America. The primary driver of growing wildfire losses is increased exposure in these hazardous regions. Due to the combination of high risk and concentration of high-value assets, most wildfire losses originate in the U.S., particularly in California, where expansion into hazardous areas has been significant.
Severe Thunderstorms
Severe thunderstorms remain a major driver of losses. Insured losses from severe convective storms (SCS) amounted to 31 billion dollars in the first half of 2025. While several destructive thunderstorms occurred during the year, with large hail and tornado outbreaks in the U.S., total SCS-related losses were below Swiss Re Institute’s trend estimate of 35 billion dollars and the record events of 2023 and 2024. Nevertheless, SCS remain a significant contributor to global insured natural catastrophe losses, and year-to-year volatility underscores their persistent threat to property and infrastructure.
Urbanization in risk-prone areas, the increasing value of assets, and inflation have amplified the financial impact of severe thunderstorms. As exposure continues to rise and reconstruction becomes more expensive, Swiss Re Institute anticipates that losses from this peril will increase over time.
Jérôme Haegeli, Group Chief Economist at Swiss Re, states: “The most effective tool to increase community resilience and safety is to double down on mitigation and adaptation efforts. This is where we can all help reduce losses before they occur. While mitigation and adaptation measures come at a cost, our research shows that, for example, flood protection measures such as levees, dams, and barriers are up to ten times more cost-effective than rebuilding.”
Other examples of adaptation measures include the enforcement of building codes, strengthening zoning laws, enhancing flood protection, and discouraging settlements in hazard-prone areas.
Effects of Global Warming Worldwide
The magnitude 7.7 earthquake that struck Myanmar in March was a human tragedy that caused a high number of fatalities. Shockwaves were felt as far as Thailand, India, and China, resulting in estimated insured losses of 1.5 billion U.S. dollars in Thailand alone.
The second half of the year began with the effects of a large heat dome causing temperatures exceeding 40°C in Western and Central Europe at the end of June, along with wildfire outbreaks in several countries. In the U.S., torrential rains caused catastrophic flash floods in Central Texas in July.
With the U.S. heat hurricane season having passed its peak, attention for the second half of the year shifts to the North Atlantic hurricane season, which typically peaks in early September. Forecasts indicate near or above-average activity, with between three and five major hurricanes, above the long-term average of three.
For insurers and exposed communities, the key factor determining the scale of losses is where a hurricane makes landfall. The 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina serves as a reminder that tropical cyclones, particularly major hurricanes, pose a significant risk to the North American East and Gulf Coasts as well as the Caribbean.
For coastal communities, early preparation and resilience are essential to minimize the impact.
Balz Grollimund, Head of Catastrophe Perils at Swiss Re, states: “Reinsurers not only act as shock absorbers against peak risks. They also play a crucial role in helping the world prepare for and respond to the rising risk of natural catastrophes by understanding, quantifying, and transferring risk. Their models and tools pave the way for public and private sector collaborations that provide innovative and practical responses, helping communities recover more quickly.”
Given that 60% of annual insured natural catastrophe losses historically occur in the second half of the year, the upcoming period remains highly uncertain. Losses fluctuate significantly from year to year, with random swings mainly due to natural climate variability. If current loss trends continue, global insured losses from natural catastrophes in 2025 could exceed Swiss Re Institute’s projection of 150 billion U.S. dollars in 2025 prices. However, this outcome still depends on the evolution of major risks in the coming months.
Swiss Re Group is one of the world’s leading providers of reinsurance, insurance, and other insurance-based risk transfer solutions, working to achieve a more resilient world. It anticipates and manages risk, from natural catastrophes to climate change, from an aging population to cybercrime. Swiss Re Group’s goal is to drive societal progress by creating new opportunities and solutions for its clients. Headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, where it was founded in 1863, Swiss Re Group operates through a network of approximately 70 offices worldwide.
