The US ISM services index shows that business activity and new orders are performing well, but companies are increasingly focused on trimming their workforce. The employment component of the index has dropped into contraction territory, indicating a potential risk of job losses in the coming months.
However, with inflation pressures looking less worrying, the Federal Reserve should have the flexibility to respond, said James Knightley, Chief International Economist, ING Bank in a new report for ING Bank.
The ISM services index for February came in at 52.6, below the consensus forecast of 53.0. However, business activity and new orders improved to 57.2 and 56.1, respectively, indicating expansion in these areas. Employment, on the other hand, dropped to 48.0, the second sub-50 print in the past three months, and the six-month moving average is also below the 50 line.
The relationship between the ISM services employment index and the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls has historically been strong, but in 2023 and into 2024, they have had an inverse relationship. With job loss announcements seemingly picking up and the quit rate falling, it does appear that the jobs market is cooling.
Prices paid fell back in the report, which is a positive sign given the recent strength in core inflation readings. The ISM indices and GDP growth, indicating that the economy may not be as robust as GDP alone suggests. Nonetheless, there is little sign of employers taking an axe to jobs, and the Federal Reserve should have the flexibility to respond to any potential job losses.
The full report can be found on the ING Group site.
