Despite the financial volatility unleashed by the arrival of President Donald Trump in the United States, as well as uncertainty stemming from factors such as the eventual review of the USMCA and the implementation of a controversial reform in the country’s judicial branch, if 2025 had ended in September, it would have marked a historic period for investment returns in Mexico’s financial market.
The numbers leave no room for doubt. Domestic market stocks are already yielding a rate slightly above 30% annually, their best period since 2003. Fibras are delivering a cumulative return of 31%, marking the best year since 2011. The Mexican peso has appreciated by 13%, the best performance in 50 years as of a September close. And Cetes, the leading government securities in the domestic market, maintain an average real rate close to 5%, ranking among the best periods in the past 20 years.
Looking at long-term government debt yields, the trend is the same: the M bond, the most influential instrument in this segment of the domestic market, is showing a return of 15.6% so far this year. Udibonos, in turn, are yielding 16.3%. In both cases, yields of this magnitude haven’t been seen since at least 2010, and on a cumulative basis, it’s the best historical return as of September.
“This 2025 is shaping up to be an exceptional year and a reminder that peso-denominated assets have been by far a better alternative than the dollar,” says Franklin Templeton in a report titled “Couldn’t Be Better! The Best Year for Mexican Assets.”
For its part, Banco Base considers that strong returns in the Mexican market are precisely linked to volatility, since the country remains a partner of the world’s largest economy, and factors such as the trade war and general global financial uncertainty are causing capital to shift toward the closest emerging market to that power—one that offers attractive yields and enjoys relative financial and political stability. That country, without a doubt, is Mexico.
Banamex also highlights this year as one of great returns for Mexican assets, unless something extraordinary occurs in the next two months. Stability and certainty—despite being a low-growth economy—are the main draws for both domestic and global investors, says the bank (recently sold in a majority stake to a local businessman who acquired 25% of the firm).
How far will the Mexican market go? That’s the question among analysts and traders, as they speculate on what might happen over the next two years when the country must face two challenges that will test the resilience of its economy. The first factor is the upcoming review of the USMCA with the United States and Canada. On that point, even though significant tension and potential disagreements are expected—especially with the U.S. negotiating team—everyone is betting that the free trade agreement will prevail, though it will be a period of volatility and uncertainty.
The second medium-term factor is the crucial midterm legislative elections in 2027, during which the recall referendum mechanism provided by the constitution could also be brought to the table—in this case for current president Claudia Sheinbaum. The president currently enjoys solid public approval, but it is unknown whether—even as a strategy—she herself might promote this process. What is certain is that the election to renew the lower house (Chamber of Deputies), along with nearly 20 gubernatorial races, will be a moment of uncertainty for the country’s economy.
However, at the end of last year, most analyses warned of potential risks for Mexico with the return of President Trump to the United States—some even predicting an imminent recession in Latin America’s second-largest economy. Reality has proven otherwise and confirms that expectations are not always fulfilled.
