Last updated: 10:57 / Wednesday, 17 June 2015
BofA Merrill Lynch FMS

The majority of the FMS panel sees a negative resolution of Greece talks: 57 percent predict Grexit, or default without exit

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The majority of the FMS panel sees a negative resolution of Greece talks: 57 percent predict Grexit, or default without exit
  • Global investors have moved out of equities into cash ahead of an expected U.S. Fed rate hike
  • The majority of the FMS panel sees a negative resolution of Greece talks: 15 percent predict Grexit, and 42 percent predict default without exit.
  • The U.S. dollar is the most crowded trade as Fed tightening looms; 72 percent predict the euro will weaken vs. the dollar in coming year

Global investors have moved out of equities into cash ahead of an expected U.S. Fed rate hike, according to June’s BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey (FMS). Investors have also shown concern about a Greek default and a possible bubble in Chinese equities as they have scaled back risk.

  • Cash levels rise to 4.9 percent of portfolios, up from 4.5 percent in May; proportion of investors overweight equities falls to net 38 percent from 47 percent.
  • Expectations of higher rates are the highest since May 2011, with a net 80 percent of the panel forecasting a rise in short-term rates.
  • The majority of the FMS panel sees a negative resolution of Greece talks: 15 percent predict Grexit, and 42 percent predict default without exit.
  • China worries: seven out of 10 investors say China’s equity market is in a “bubble.” A net 50 percent see China economy weakening.
  • The proportion of investors expecting to underweight global emerging markets surges to a net 21 percent from net 6 percent in May.
  • Corporate operating margins will fall in the coming 12 months, say a net 17 percent of investors – up from net 5 percent in May.
  • The U.S. dollar is the most crowded trade as Fed tightening looms; 72 percent predict the euro will weaken vs. the dollar in coming year.

“Higher cash levels show how caution is in the air, with 65 trading days until we expect the Fed to tighten,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.

“Investors remain bullish on European equities but are increasingly concerned about Greece and higher yields,” said James Barty, head of European equity strategy.

For your information...

An overall total of 207 panelists with US$562 billion of assets under management participated in the survey from 5 June to 11 June 2015. A total of 167 managers, managing US$437 billion, participated in the global survey. A total of 94 managers, managing US$211 billion, participated in the regional surveys. The survey was conducted by BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research with the help of market research company TNS.

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