Analysts at the McKinsey Global Institute have just published an ambitious report that looks to the future and identifies, with a horizon to 2040, the 18 main sectors of the global economy that will show high dynamism and growth.
The research estimates that these 18 sectors could generate between $29 trillion and $48 trillion in revenue, and between $2 trillion and $6 trillion in profit, by the year 2040.
Understanding the Future by Analyzing the Past
To understand the future, the consultancy analyzed what happened between 2005 and 2020 with the main sectors of the economy. Twelve segments experienced growth well above average—in particular, a compound annual growth rate in revenue of 10% and in market capitalization of 6%, while industries outside the ranking grew by just 4% and 6%, respectively.
The report develops a kind of “magic formula” for creating economic sectors with “special potential”—that is, a set of three common factors that tend to generate these dynamic arenas:
A step-change in business model or technology
Layered investment (i.e., major investments that reinforce each other and create compounding effects)
A large or growing addressable market
This Is the List of the Winning Sectors
Software and Artificial Intelligence Services
AI—in all its variants: generative, predictive, automation—is creating a new digital fabric for businesses and consumers. The sector will include AI platforms, specialized services, foundation models, and productivity tools.Next-Generation E-Commerce
E-commerce will continue to expand, particularly toward integrated models (superapps, social commerce, live shopping), ultra-fast supply chains, and AI-powered personalized digital experiences. The line between physical and digital stores will keep blurring.Digital Content Streaming
Entertainment will continue shifting to digital platforms with hybrid models (subscription + advertising). Competition will intensify as premium content, advanced analytics, and global distribution enable the emergence of new players and niche segmentation.Digital Advertising
With the rise of data, AI, and new formats (short video, contextual advertising, integrated commerce), digital advertising will keep growing. The progressive elimination of cookies and tighter regulations will drive new models based on first-party data and smarter segmentation.Video Games
Gaming is expanding as a cultural, technological, and social industry, fueled by subscription models, cloud gaming, persistent worlds, in-game economies, and immersive experiences.Cybersecurity
Digital complexity and risks are rising—especially with AI, IoT, and connected critical systems. This sector will grow through managed services, infrastructure protection, digital identity, advanced threat detection, and automated response.Cloud-Based Enterprise Software
Advanced SaaS solutions, modular platforms, AI-based applications, and tools enabling full business process integration in the cloud will continue to grow, improving efficiency and scalability.Cloud Services and Infrastructure
Includes hyperscalers, data centers, computing services, storage, networking, and edge computing. Expansion is driven by generative AI, industrial automation, autonomous vehicles, and applications requiring low latency and high computing power.Semiconductors
Chip demand will soar due to AI, electric vehicles, IoT, robotics, and defense. A new phase is opening with massive investments, geopolitical competition, next-generation miniaturization, and new materials. The supply chain will expand and be globally reconfigured.Electric Vehicles (EVs)
The EV market will keep growing with improvements in batteries, lower costs, new architectures, and economies of scale. Competition will rise between traditional automakers and new entrants, especially from China.Shared Autonomous Vehicles
Robotaxis and autonomous fleets will create a new urban mobility model, with per-kilometer costs far lower than current taxis. This area requires advances in sensors, AI, regulations, and HD mapping but promises to transform transportation and city infrastructure.Advanced Batteries
Includes solid-state technologies, new materials, improvements in energy density, and cost reductions. Battery development is key for electric vehicles, stationary storage, electronic devices, and more flexible energy grids.Next-Generation Nuclear Energy (Compact Fission)
Small modular reactors (SMRs) and safer, scalable fission technologies could provide clean, continuous power. Progress depends on regulation, industrial costs, and social acceptance, but several countries and companies are accelerating investments.Industrial Biotechnology
Based on using living organisms or biological processes to produce materials, chemicals, fuels, and food. The convergence of synthetic biology, automation, and computing enables faster design cycles and lower costs.Consumer Biotechnology
Includes personalized products and services based on genetics, the microbiome, metabolomics, and biomarkers. Growth is expected in advanced supplements, preventive interventions, personalized testing, and wellness solutions based on biological data science.Treatments for Obesity and Related Conditions
New pharmacological therapies (such as GLP-1 agonists) are transforming treatment for obesity and related metabolic diseases. This sector could become one of the largest pharmaceutical markets in history due to the global scale of the issue.Modular Construction
The industrialization of construction through prefabricated modules will reduce costs and construction time.Space Development
Falling launch costs and advances in reusable rockets enable new models: small satellites, communications, Earth observation, in-orbit manufacturing, and commercial missions. The entry of private players is revitalizing a traditionally state-led sector.
You can access the full report: The Next Big Arenas of Competition.
