John Lamb, Equity Investment Director at Capital Group, analyzed the effects of Trump’s policies, the role of Europe, and highlighted attractive opportunities in the healthcare sector. He affirmed that there is a shift in the global balance, anticipated “some additional weakness” in the U.S. economy, and noted that the “inflationary rebound resulting from tariffs” has yet to materialize. However, the United States remains “resilient” thanks to strong investment in technology and data centers, and its exceptionalism continues to hold beyond the short term.
He also commented that by 2026, the ECB may need to consider raising rates “two or three times,” and that the euro could reach 1.30 against the dollar next year in a context of U.S. dollar weakness. Regarding emerging markets, he noted that China faces the challenge of structurally lower growth, while Indian companies appear overvalued.
This was shared during an in-person meeting with Funds Society, during a stop on the roadshow the specialist conducted in Miami to present Capital Group’s New Perspective Strategy, the global equity strategy the firm has been managing for over 50 years, investing flexibly in quality multinational companies driving global change.
Trump’s Impact and U.S. Economic Resilience
While acknowledging certain challenges stemming from the Trump administration’s policies, Lamb stated that the so-called “American exceptionalism” has not come to an end. “We take a balanced stance. We’re not fully on one side or the other. There are arguments both for and against,” he said.
Lamb expanded on Trump’s tariff policies, which in his view have created short-term difficulties for the U.S. economy. Still, he emphasized the resilience of U.S. companies and the economy as a whole, which have adapted to the trade tension environment.
According to Lamb, the full impact of the tariffs has yet to show up in the data. “We believe we haven’t yet seen the entire effect on the U.S. economy. Our short-term growth and inflation forecasts are less optimistic than the consensus,” he stated.
In that regard, he anticipated “some additional weakness” and warned that the inflation rebound linked to tariffs “has not yet materialized.” However, beyond the short term, Lamb argued that many of the fundamentals of American exceptionalism remain in place, driven by a combination of factors: “deep and liquid capital markets, a strong entrepreneurial spirit, and the rule of law… Many of those components remain intact,” he stated.
He also noted that growth has been supported by robust investment in tech infrastructure, particularly in data centers. While there may be risks of overenthusiasm in that segment, Lamb does not foresee a recession.
Diverging Monetary Policy
In this global context, Lamb said that Europe has performed better than expected. He considers it reasonable for the market to be pricing in three to four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but expects the European Central Bank to face the opposite challenge.
“The shift in Europe’s fiscal regime, with strong public spending—especially in Germany—could boost growth while also generating inflationary pressures,” he explained. In his view, the eurozone could potentially see two to three rate hikes.
Lamb also projected that the euro could reach 1.30 against the dollar next year amid U.S. dollar weakness. However, he added that “in the long term, the U.S. will likely benefit from a productivity boost driven by investment in artificial intelligence.”
Healthcare: Targeted Opportunities
Speaking about equities, Lamb pointed to the healthcare sector, where he sees attractive opportunities.
“It’s been a challenging time for the sector,” he admitted, citing negative factors tied to U.S. government policies on drug pricing and reimbursement, as well as tariffs. “But valuations are now near historic lows in relative terms.”
The expert believes political risks have diminished and that the sector combines “attractive valuations with an exciting innovation pipeline.” He cited specific examples such as Eli Lilly, which is about to present clinical trial results for a new oral version of its weight-loss drugs—a development that could “significantly open up the market and expand its reach.”
Capital Group’s New Perspective Strategy does not make “large macro bets by region,” he explained. “We focus on finding the right companies, regardless of where they are domiciled,” he concluded.
