The arrest of Nicolás Maduro by the United States adds a new focal point to global geopolitics. The detention “confirms the idea that there are no zero-probability events: all scenarios become possible once the rules no longer exist,” explains Philippe Waechter, Chief Economist at Ostrum (an affiliate of Natixis IM). According to the expert, the key question now will revolve around Russia and China’s responses, both of which support Maduro. Waechter recalls that the United States and Venezuela have had tension since Hugo Chávez came to power in Venezuela in the late 1990s. Previously, the country was a U.S. “preserve,” specifically through oil and chemical industry exploitation. “As a reflection of this, baseball is the country’s favorite sport, just as it is in the United States,” he notes.
Waechter now emphasizes that the United States under President Donald Trump “wants to get its hands on Venezuelan oil.” While it is low-quality crude, it represents 17.5% of global reserves, “the largest in the world.” For this reason, and given the White House’s strong pro-oil bias, combined with the stagnation of the U.S. shale oil exploration and production industry, “Venezuela is a good alternative,” according to the expert.
In conclusion, Waechter points out that if the United States takes control of Venezuela, “sanctions on oil exports would be lifted and crude production in the country would resume, thereby increasing oil supply in the global market.” This would therefore be a favorable factor for a decline in the price of black gold. However, “the final question is whether, once again, an intervention of this kind will be destabilizing for the region. There is no shortage of examples,” adds the Ostrum expert.
Oil takes center stage
This geopolitical event therefore brings oil back into the spotlight. Energy prices reacted lower in the first relevant session following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro: oil fell by around 1% and natural gas dropped nearly 4%, “a move that draws attention given the geopolitical context, but which the market is reading, for now, as a political event with no immediate physical impact,” explains Diego Albuja, ATFX LATAM market analyst.
The expert adds that the key driver behind price movements in major energy commodities is the fact that no production disruptions or damage to Venezuelan oil infrastructure have been reported. As a result, “without a real supply shock, the geopolitical risk premium quickly fades and prices return to responding to global market fundamentals.” He notes that the market is looking more toward the medium term, potential political changes and normalization scenarios, rather than an immediate impact on crude flows. The sharper drop in natural gas prices is mainly due to factors specific to the U.S. market, such as high storage levels, more benign weather expectations, and technical adjustments in speculative positions, rather than the situation in Venezuela.
“The market is sending a very clear message: as long as there is no real supply disruption, fundamentals prevail. However, this balance is fragile and can change quickly if signs of operational damage, logistical blockages, or abrupt changes in the sanctions regime emerge,” Albuja concludes.
From his perspective, Raphaël Thuin, Head of Capital Markets Strategies at Tikehau Capital, notes that in recent years investors and markets have learned to look beyond recurring geopolitical risks and focus on the fundamental factors that drive long-term market performance. Recent developments in Venezuela “appear to fit this pattern,” as the country’s global economic impact “remains limited, with relatively low exposure for most international companies.”
As a result, the expert considers it likely that long-term market prospects “will not be affected.” He also does not rule out the possibility of positive catalysts. For example, he notes that one of the objectives of the current U.S. administration is to facilitate the flow of more Venezuelan oil to global markets. That said, Thuin acknowledges that geopolitical and regime changes “inevitably introduce new uncertainties,” and therefore concedes that in 2026, as in 2025, “geopolitics will be a factor investors and market performance will need to take into account.”
Other assets: gold and equities
While oil is now in the spotlight, there may be other spillover effects. For example, Ned Naylor-Leyland, Investment Manager for Gold and Silver at Jupiter AM, points out that precious metals, in this environment of market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic uncertainty, once again reinforce their historic role as a store of value, behaving differently from equities and bonds. Gold has already surpassed the $4,400-per-ounce level, rising by around 2% amid the arrest of Nicolás Maduro.
Similarly, Javier Molina, Senior Market Analyst at eToro, says that the situation in Venezuela “adds immediate noise.” While the expert places emphasis on the oil market, he also adds that these types of episodes “tend to result in tactical moves and spikes in volatility, but rarely alter the structural trend of risk assets on their own.” Ultimately, it serves as a reminder that the short term “can be uncomfortable, even within a bullish cycle.”
Currently, Molina stresses that the underlying trend remains upward and that staying invested “continues to make sense, especially in companies with visible earnings and positive momentum.” However, he acknowledges that “this is no longer a market for complacency,” as geopolitics, the fragility of the macroeconomic cycle, and high concentration levels “require heightened risk management, position-size adjustments, and acceptance that volatility is part of the journey.” For now, and ahead of the opening of U.S. equity markets, European stock indices were trading slightly higher by mid-session.
