In the view of Marco Giordano, Investment Director at Wellington Management, much has been said about monetary policy and little about fiscal policy. In his opinion, the shift in focus is key: “We are at a moment when, unless we experience an oil shock, major central banks are more focused on narrative than on action. By contrast, fiscal policy is going to be much more active. We will enter a phase in which we must understand the fiscal policies of different countries in order to understand the fixed income market and monetary policy.”
In the current context marked by geopolitics and the conflict between the U.S. and Iran—with rising oil and gas prices as the main consequence in markets—for Giordano, the real inflation risk lies in the potential reaction of governments to an inflationary shock. “Right now, it is the price of oil that could lead us into an inflationary shock, but for me what matters is the impact of the measures countries take in response to such a shock. That is, a repeat of what we saw in 2022, with governments approving large-scale measures without specific targets and increased public debt issuance, in the face of inflation above 2%,” he explains. In this regard, the Investment Director at Wellington Management believes that investors are not taking this interpretation of inflation into account and are not preparing their portfolios.
Public Debt: Where to Issue on the Curve
According to his analysis, this increase in public deficit has coincided with significant deleveraging by households and companies, which has greatly changed opportunities in the fixed income market. “In terms of public debt, it is true that there is potential differentiation between countries. And this is happening at a time when, as long as inflation remains around 2%, it will be difficult for central banks to intervene and absorb that debt. However, the most interesting question is the next step: at what point will markets demand an adjustment in public spending, and how will they do so? For me, this is the elephant in the room for the fixed income market,” says Giordano.
In this regard, the Investment Director at Wellington Management points directly to the U.S. In his view, the country has a structurally very high deficit—consistent with a period of negative growth—at the end of the current economic cycle, which has been very long. “I would say this is possible for several reasons, but the main one is that the United States always plays by different rules because its currency is the global reserve, so there is always persistent demand for dollar-denominated assets. Proof of this is that, for now, markets continue to absorb U.S. Treasury issuance,” he notes.
One trend observed by Giordano is that governments are becoming aware of investor demand for issuance at different points along the yield curve and are adjusting their issuance accordingly. “Although we are seeing structurally higher issuance by governments, the reality is that they are adapting their issuance so that its impact is lower, and they are also seeking other pools of capital to absorb that issuance. This trend represents an opportunity for investors because it implies significant potential differentiation between countries. Until recently, there was not as much polarity or differentiation between issuers, whether in public debt or credit debt; but now, with higher interest rates, there is increasing differentiation between issuances,” he explains.
Credit: Sustained Demand for Yield
In his view, as a result of rising sovereign yields, credit market spreads have tightened; however, demand for credit—both high yield and investment grade—has been considerable. In his opinion, this is not complacency but rather persistent demand for yield. “Many portfolios globally have been underweight fixed income, so they have seen credit as a good entry point given its attractive valuations, across all types of investors, whether institutional, retail, domestic, or international,” he explains.
Although he acknowledges that in the current environment there is some “vulnerability to potential exogenous shocks,” he believes that possible corrections in the credit market are more related to a process of “adjustment” toward more normalized levels. At the same time, he argues that we are beginning to see greater dispersion across sectors: “If we look at the MOVE index (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate) in 2025, we see that there has been less and less volatility in fixed income markets, which is somewhat counterintuitive. With more geopolitical and macro noise and volatility, there should be more market volatility, yet in 2025 it has been somewhat the opposite. However, from January, and more strongly in February, we began to see greater dispersion across sectors and issuers, generating new opportunities for investors.”
In his review of fixed income, Giordano offers a final message: “Fixed income has returned to portfolios, but in a completely different environment, where the 60/40 portfolio no longer works and where we are seeing greater presence of other assets, such as digital assets or private markets.” Despite this new context, Giordano believes that fixed income remains a key asset for navigating uncertainty. “It is clear to everyone that portfolios must be diversified, but what matters here is that the wide range of assets offered by fixed income allows for income generation while also protecting capital,” he concludes.
