Emerging markets have experienced several years of relative underperformance. In 2016, they will face considerable external headwinds such as China’s slowdown and rebalancing, weak commodity prices, higher short-term US interest rates, and possibly further US dollar appreciation. Countries will react in different ways to these pressures depending on the extent of any imbalances and their own economic and institutional characteristics.
In the latest update of the Standard Life Investments emerging markets heat map, chief Economist Jeremy Lawson and Emerging Market Economist Nicolas Jaquier highlight important differences in their risk ratings of individual countries:
Jeremy Lawson said: “In May our heat map proved to be a useful indicator of subsequent asset price movements. Countries like Hungary, Korea and Russia showed relatively low risk and generally fared better than those at the higher end of the spectrum such as Brazil, Turkey and Peru. Looking forward, widespread currency depreciation has helped to reduce external imbalances in many countries, although domestic imbalances remain widespread and will take much longer to be addressed.
“Venezuela and Egypt, with pegged or inflexible exchange rate regimes, remain the countries where our heat map shows risks are highest. Brazil and Malaysia have lowered their risk score after seeing their basic balances improve during the year, though risk is still high. Turkey’s external vulnerabilities are unchanged broadly, despite the benefits of the drop in oil prices.
“Whilst Colombia’s external variables improved marginally, this was offset by rising domestic imbalances. The outlook for fiscal balances has deteriorated notably in Latin America and Russia, and a marginal worsening of domestic balances led to a slight increase in risk for India, Indonesia, Mexico and The Philippines.”