Last updated: 13:41 / Tuesday, 22 November 2016
Analysis by Morgan Stanley

Caution Going Into the Fourth Quarter

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Caution Going Into the Fourth Quarter

Looking in the near term, Morgan Stanley Global Fixed Income continues to expect an environment of dampened interest-rate volatility, which means a good environment for carry. "We expect contrasting forces of slow but stable global growth but perhaps higher inflation expectations to keep long-end rates trading in a range with a slight upward bias." They explain.

However, given ongoing policy reconsiderations at central banks and a predilection to believe global growth will be higher next year is wary of sharp curve steepening and thinks underweights in risk-free rates provide a good hedge to carry oriented strategies.

"We remain optimistic about the prospects for emerging markets (EM) fixed income for the remainder of the year as fundamentals, technicals and the macro environment remain supportive," the firm states, adding that, the various factors both pushing and pulling investors into EM fixed income remain in place: Developed market yields remain very low, economic data in EM appears to have stabilized, fears of multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes have subsided and concerns of a sharp slowdown in China have diminished. However, Morgan Stanley Global Fixed Income believes U.S. elections reflect a major event risk for some key EMs and the outlook for global trade.

"Accommodative policy and low global yields remain supportive of global credit, particularly U.S. credit, and we continue to believe the strong technical environment in global credit markets suggests a slow grind tighter into year-end. We remain cautious, however, as we enter the last quarter of 2016, and continue to watch for potential risks," they conclude.

The views and opinions are those of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change at any time due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) or the views of the firm as a whole, and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

All information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a recommendation. The information herein does not contend to address the financial objectives, situation or specific needs of any individual investor.

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1614020 Exp. 10/11/2017

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