- Global growth is stabilizing, but at a lower pace
- Global demand is not as strong
- Fed hike is not necessarily a negative
According to Axa IM, you can add risky assets in the short term “but beware of 2016”. The asset manager believes that after a sharp slowdown in the first half of the year, the global economy is stabilizing. “Yet, sluggish demand, -especially in China, led us to trim our global GDP forecast for 2016 from 3.3% to 3.1%.”
They believe that while US consumers remain on a strong footing, weaker global demand will weigh on the manufacturing sector, thus they see US growth at 2.2% in 2016, down from the previous 2.5%. In regards to China, because of a construction overhang, their estimate is 6.3%. In Europe and on the back of the VW scandal, they believe growth will be of 1.4%.
Considering the softer environment lived in the first half of 2015, Axa thinks growth will prevail. “If anything, the next quarters might see a gentle improvement in growth momentum” they say, adding that they do not believe that the later-than- expected Fed hike is a negative, that valuations have corrected sufficiently and that equity markets “are simply oversold”.
Nevertheless they warn that “While we remain overweight in the near term, we reckon that clouds are gathering over our longer term equity view. Today we suggest reducing our long-held overweight. First, 2016 is expected to see mildly weaker overall growth around the globe and the risks for 2017 are presumably skewed to the downside.”