After decades of stagnation, global nuclear energy supply is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, according to a report by Brian Lee and Carly Davenport, analysts at Goldman Sachs Research.
“By 2040, our analysts forecast that global nuclear generation capacity will increase from 378 gigawatts (GW) to 575 GW, representing a rise in nuclear energy’s share of the global electricity mix from approximately 9% to 12%,” the note states.
The projected increase in generation capacity coincides with a rise in global support for nuclear energy and a resurgence in investment in nuclear generation. In May, President Donald Trump signed executive orders to accelerate the adoption of nuclear energy in the U.S., aiming to expand nuclear power from the current 100 GW to 400 GW by 2050. Meanwhile, China plans to build 150 nuclear reactors over the next 15 years, targeting 200 GW of nuclear generation capacity by 2035. At the latest COP29 meeting, held in November 2024, 31 countries committed to advancing toward the goal of tripling global nuclear generation by 2050.
Global investment in nuclear energy generation is also increasing: investment grew at a compound annual rate of 14% between 2020 and 2024, following nearly five years without growth in spending.
“This has occurred following improved political support globally, underscored by rising energy demand and lower-emission alternatives in a world that is retiring coal plants at a much faster pace than building new ones,” Lee and Davenport write in the team’s report.
Nuclear reactors require uranium as fuel. According to Goldman Sachs, “as more plants come online and the lifespan of existing reactors is extended, the team expects a rise in uranium demand in the coming years, which will likely drive up the price of the metal.”
In total, the team forecasts a uranium supply deficit of approximately 17,500 tonnes by 2030. “We expect this deficit to increase to approximately 100,000 tonnes by 2045, as new reactors come online,” Lee and Davenport write.
