In Bob Doll’s view of 2020, active managers and Donald Trump will win. “Our view is a more mediocre view, with a lot of frustration,” he mentioned during his yearly outlook while recommending to “focus more on alfa, own more high quality value vs expensive growth, have diversification both in terms of asset clases and geography, raise quality of the cash flow character, and watch wage rate increases to monitor inflation.”
In 2019, the chief equity strategist at Nuveen, made his predictions saying it was a tough year to forecast but that he was leaning towards a bullish view on stocks. He was mostly right, getting eight out of 10 correct.
Here are his top 10 predictions for 2020:
- The world avoids recession in 2020 as U.S. GDP grows over 2% and global GDP grows over 3%.
- Inflation and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield end the year above 2% as the Fed stays on hold through the election.
- Earnings fall short of expectations, partially due to rising wage rates.
- Stocks, bonds and cash all return less than 5% for only the fourth time in 25 years.
- Non-U.S. stocks outpace U.S. stocks as the dollar retreats.
- Value and cyclicals outperform growth and defensive stocks.
- Financials, technology and health care outperform utilities, real estate and consumer discretionary.
- Active equity managers outperform their indexes for the first time in a decade.
- The cold wars within the U.S. and between the U.S. and China continue.
- The U.S. concludes a tumultuous political year with a status quo election.
For the full version of Bob Doll’s Ten Predictions for 2020 follow this link.