In the early 1990s, the world’s first exchange-traded fund (ETF) was launched on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Just three years later, the first U.S. ETF debuted: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. From those humble beginnings, ETFs have come a long way. The industry likely closed 2025 with record levels of assets under management, both in the United States and other regions around the world. This scenario is not without underlying trends that are poised to continue transforming the sector. Morningstar analysts have weighed in on the positives and negatives ahead, as well as which trends are still too early to judge.
Active ETFs
Active ETFs are currently in the spotlight, with assets under management likely reaching record levels in both the U.S. and Europe. While active ETFs have existed for nearly two decades, they’ve recently gained momentum thanks to regulatory changes, for instance, in 2029, the U.S. SEC introduced Rule 6c-11, also known as the “ETF Rule.” This regulatory shift “streamlined the ETF approval process and allowed all funds subject to the rule to use custom creation and redemption baskets to enhance their prospective tax efficiency,” according to Morningstar.
In this area, Morningstar analysts believe that active ETFs “can be a lifeline for active managers.” As a group, actively managed funds have generally failed to outperform their benchmarks significantly, as the firm notes, although some active managers have delivered strong relative results.
Active ETFs are more established in the U.S. and are growing in Europe. Overall, the market is still young, and many active ETFs have launched during a bull market, but Morningstar analysts expect them to grow in both size and number. “The availability of more options can benefit investors but will likely lead to a more complex and competitive environment,” they admit.
While the ETF structure can often provide transparency, lower costs, and, in some countries, tax efficiency, the firm emphasizes that there’s no guarantee active management will deliver positive relative returns. “It’s essential that investors and advisors conduct a rigorous due diligence process to select the right manager,” they conclude.
Are Private Markets and ETFs Compatible?
As public and private markets converge, new ways of accessing private investments are emerging. In 2025, State Street and Apollo launched the world’s first private credit ETF: the SPDR SSGA IG Public & Private Credit ETF.
This product aims to invest in both public and private credit through an ETF. The public portion includes fixed income securities such as corporate bonds and syndicated bank loans, “nothing out of the ordinary in the ETF space.” The private portion, however, is the more interesting element. Traditionally, private credit has been out of reach for most investors, but this ETF seeks to change that. While this unprecedented ETF could mark the beginning of a new era in private market investing, significant concerns remain, especially regarding liquidity and redemptions, since private credit is difficult to trade.
With that in mind, Morningstar analysts’ verdict on this emerging trend is that while the convergence of public and private markets is underway, “like the SEC, we have reservations about the structure, it’s still too early to determine whether it will succeed or be short-lived.”
The Rise of Defined Outcome ETFs
Defined outcome ETFs use options to limit a portfolio’s losses over a given period in exchange for capping gains. They fall under the category of actively managed instruments and are designed to be bought and held at the beginning and end of a set period. So far, they’ve proven very popular with investors, particularly those with a strong aversion to risk or shorter investment horizons.
According to Morningstar analysts, defined outcome ETFs have worked…so far. Their analysis shows that the average amount invested in these products has delivered annual returns of around 10.7%, outperforming the aggregate total return of 9.4% for ETFs. However, they warn investors that defined outcome ETFs come with higher fees, a complex structure, partial exposure to market losses, and no dividend payouts.
Generating Income Through Income-Oriented ETFs
Income-generating ETFs seek to provide income through derivatives and often use strategies such as writing or selling options, entering into futures contracts, and other derivative-based trades to enhance income. These products have gained popularity thanks to their potential for delivering higher yields compared to traditional income-generating investments like bonds or dividend-paying stocks.
But Morningstar cautions that, over the long term, “these ETFs are unlikely to outperform the market as a buy-and-hold strategy, and for investors with significant short-term liquidity needs, they could drain liquidity from their portfolios.”
ESG and Thematic ETFs
While many of the ETF categories mentioned above are on the rise, the same cannot be said for ESG or thematic ETFs. Key factors driving this decline include prevailing attitudes toward ESG considerations and regulatory uncertainty.
Morningstar analysts cite several interconnected factors contributing to the drop in ESG ETFs. Among them: a complex geopolitical environment that has led Europe to deprioritize sustainability goals in favor of economic growth, competitiveness, and defense. Additionally, ongoing uncertainty around regulation, especially the EU’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR), has made firms hesitant to launch ESG products and strategies.
In the U.S., former President Donald Trump’s anti-climate and anti-ESG policies have also led American asset managers to be more cautious in promoting their ESG credentials.
Strategic Beta Products: The Best of Both Worlds
While active ETFs are on the rise, ETFs have historically been associated with passive investment strategies. However, there is a third investment approach worth noting: strategic beta, also known as smart beta, which “seeks to combine the advantages of both passive and active investment strategies.”
Although they’ve existed since the mid-2000s, they gained traction after the 2008 financial crisis and surged throughout the 2010s.
“They represent a sophisticated approach to achieving alpha, selecting and weighting positions based on specific factor criteria,” the firm notes. They track an index, like a passive fund, but instead of being weighted by market capitalization, they follow a factor-based index.
These ETFs are designed to capture academically proven factors linked to success, such as value, volatility, and quality, which have historically been favored by active managers and have shown superior performance over longer periods.
Morningstar analysts conclude that “while many fund innovations fail, strategic beta has avoided that fate by being passive, inexpensive, and delivering predictable returns.” They explain that compared to actively managed rivals, “strategic beta funds don’t ‘drift’ from their investment approaches.”
