KKR & Co. Inc and The Global Atlantic Financial Group LLC (together with its subsidiaries, “Global Atlantic”) announced the closing of the previously-announced transaction in which KKR is acquiring the remaining 37% of Global Atlantic, increasing KKR’s ownership to 100%.
KKR acquired a majority of Global Atlantic in 2021, and since that time, KKR has served as Global Atlantic’s asset manager, offering access to its global investment and origination capabilities for the benefit of Global Atlantic’s policyholders.
“Since day one, Global Atlantic has been a great fit for KKR, both from a business and cultural standpoint. With this new ownership structure in place, we look forward to even closer collaboration with Global Atlantic so that we can realize more of the synergies that we have uncovered in the first three years of our strategic partnership,” said Joseph Bae and Scott Nuttall, Co-Chief Executive Officers of KKR.
“KKR and Global Atlantic are a powerful combination. Our shared culture and commitment to excellence continues to enhance our ability to think – and invest – longer-term and deliver compelling solutions for our clients and policyholders. We are thrilled for what lies ahead as a wholly-owned subsidiary of KKR,” said Allan Levine, Co-Founder, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of Global Atlantic.
Global Atlantic will continue to be led by its management team and operate under the Global Atlantic brand.
Persistent inflation and continuing rate hikes have diminished consumer core deposits and savings, and liquidity has tightened. These factors and others have contributed to less bullish predictions from both surveyed financial institutions and credit unions in the 2024 State of banking industryreport and the 2024 State of credit unions report.
Wipfli published the results of two industry surveys from the banking and credit union sectors that share insights into their current market challenges and long-term growth strategies.
After record years of M&A activity in banking, 2023 witnessed a significant slowdown. Going into 2024, 78% of surveyed banks are still looking to buy, a drop from 91% during the same period last year. Overall, the banking industry’s M&A fervor and growth projections have cooled, but banks in the $1B of assets range may look to grow through acquisition this year. Credit unions are heavily leaning on technology to maintain their market lead.
“The top message for banks to take away from this report is that the time for sitting in the wings and watching others lead the innovation charge is over,” said Anna Kooi, national financial services leader for Wipfli. “Delivering better digital experiences to customers, solving the talent pipeline drought, transforming digitally, adopting AI, and keeping out cybercriminals. All of these are critical for banks hoping to survive and prosper in 2024.”
A shared concern for both banks and credit unions is an increased emphasis on cybersecurity measures. Cybersecurity is foundational to building trust with customers, especially with digital banking services. Alarmingly, 35% of surveyed banks reported three or more incidents of unauthorized access this past year. Constantly evolving tactics and cyberattacks mean the issue is never completely solved. On the flipside, credit unions have traditionally been able to opt for less stringent cybersecurity measures due to less oversight from regulators. Still, credit unions are nearly as concerned about cybersecurity as banks are.
Another shared concern for both industries is talent management, with credit unions listing it as their top worry. Traditional avenues for both banks and credit unions to attract talent, i.e., increased wages and benefits, are no longer available as liquidity tightens. Both banks and credit unions are starting to look more toward workplace culture shifts to address talent issues; regional banks are leading the charge in offering leadership training, career development, and DEI strategies. Credit unions, in particular, are facing a pivotal moment as traditional banking institutions intensify their efforts to expand service offerings and technological prowess.
“Liquidity is tightening and so are core deposits,” added Kooi. “Add inflation to that you get nervous, cautious credit unions. Oftentimes, that cautiousness can lead to inertia, but it’s going to take decisive and strong actions for them to thrive. The two biggest areas for opportunities are unbanked/underbanked households and open banking. If credit unions are strategic and aggressive in those arenas, it will help them expand their market.”
Finally, credit unions are keen on keeping their technologies on the cutting edge to differentiate themselves from larger, more traditional financial institutions. Accepting instant payments, implementing artificial intelligence and data analysis, and improving digital customer engagement were the top avenues for surveyed credit unions to update digital services.
The banking industry survey was based on responses from 390 financial institutions across 28 states, and the credit unions survey had 83 credit unions respond across 20 states.
The rapidly integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into alternative investments has not only captured the imagination of industry professionals but has also begun to reshape the very fabric of investment strategies and decision-making processes.
As we look towards 2024 and beyond, AI’s role in the alternative investment market is set to deepen, offering profound insights and innovative approaches that will redefine the industry, according a Lynk Markets report.
AI’s capability to process and analyze massive datasets is transforming market analysis. Advanced algorithms can now forecast market trends with remarkable accuracy, identifying potential growth sectors and flagging areas of risk. This predictive intelligence allows investment professionals to make informed decisions rapidly, adapting to market changes with agility and foresight.
In addition, the predictive nature of AI extends to risk management. By analyzing historical data and current market conditions, AI algorithms can identify potential risks before they materialize. This proactive approach to risk assessment enables investors to mitigate potential losses and capitalize on opportunities with greater confidence.
As AI technology becomes more sophisticated, it enables the creation of highly customized investment strategies tailored to individual investor profiles. By considering factors such as risk tolerance, investment goals, and market conditions, AI can provide personalized recommendations, ensuring that investment strategies align closely with investor objectives.
Democratization of Alternative Investments
Markets are dynamic, and a manager’s ability to adapt and evolve strategies in response to changing conditions is a key differentiator. A good year involves a portfolio manager who demonstrated agility, staying ahead of the curve in a constantly evolving alternative investment landscape.
Beyond market analysis and investment strategies, AI is revolutionizing operational aspects of alternative investments. From automated regulatory compliance to streamlined due diligence processes, AI is enhancing efficiency, reducing errors, and lowering operational costs.
Ethical and Sustainable Investing
AI’s impact extends to the realm of ethical and sustainable investing. By leveraging AI, investors can screen investments based on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria, aligning financial goals with ethical values. This approach not only contributes to a more sustainable financial ecosystem but also resonates with a growing segment of socially-conscious investors.
As we move into an era increasingly dominated by AI, it is crucial for professionals in the alternative investment market to adapt and evolve. This entails staying abreast of technological advancements, acquiring new skills, and embracing a mindset of continuous learning and innovation.
On the other hand, the future of alternative investments lies in the synergy between human and machine intelligence. While AI provides analytical strength and efficiency, the human element remains essential for strategic decision- making, understanding market nuances, and fostering relationships.
A New Paradigm in Alt Investments
The integration of AI into the alternative investment market is more than a technological advancement; it is a paradigm shift. As AI continues to evolve, it promises not only to enhance financial returns but also to bring a new level of sophistication and depth to the investment process. For industry professionals, the time to embrace and leverage AI is now, paving the way for a future that is intelligent, inclusive, and innovative
Franklin Resources, Inc. a global investment management organization operating as Franklin Templeton, announced the successful completion on January 1, 2024 of its acquisition of Putnam Investments (“Putnam”) from Great-West Lifeco, Inc. (“Great-West”).
Per the terms of the transaction, Great-West becomes a long-term shareholder in Franklin Resources, Inc., consistent with Great-West’s continuing commitment to asset management.
“With complementary capabilities and a track record of strong investment performance, Putnam expands our ability to offer more choice to more clients,” said Jenny Johnson, President and CEO of Franklin Templeton.
The addition of Putnam accelerates our growth in the retirement sector by increasing our defined contribution AUM and expands our insurance assets, further strengthening our presence in these key market segments to better serve all our clients. Putnam also shares our client-focused culture and emphasis on delivering strong investment results, the CEO said.
Founded in 1937, Putnam is a global asset management firm with $142 billion1in AUM as of November 30, 2023.
The transaction adds a target date fund range and complementary investment capabilities with scale, including in the areas of stable value, ultra short duration and large cap value. Consistent with Franklin Templeton’s previous acquisitions, the execution plan is designed to minimize disruption to Putnam’s investment teams and client relationships.
Franklin Templeton’s global infrastructure will enhance Putnam’s investment, risk management, operations and technology capabilities. The addition of Putnam brings Franklin Templeton’s AUM to $1.55 trillion as of November 30, 2023.
Chicago Atlantic announced the funding of a $16 million senior secured term loan to Margo, a cryptocurrency ATM operator that provides a secure and convenient way to instantly turn cash into digital currency.
Chicago Atlantic’s capital investment will help support Margo’s growing kiosk network.
“Margo is redefining the way consumers interact with digital currency, shaping the future of financial literacy by making cryptocurrency more accessible. We couldn’t think of a company better aligned with our people-first values and our drive to push innovation forward in categories of highest need. It’s an honor to partner with Margo as they expand their reach,” said Tony Cappell, Founding Partner of Chicago Atlantic.
Founded in 2019 as PowerCoin and rebranded in 2023, Margo’s user-friendly Bitcoin ATMs are featured nationwide in retailers including Royal Farms, H-E-B, Yesway, United Natural Foods Inc. (UNFI) and Ace Cash Express, among others. The company also includes a Private Client Desk, where individuals and institutions can trade $3,000 to $1 million in cryptocurrency per day across Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), USD Coin (USDC), NFTs or other tokens. Margo also helps business entities set up digital currency as a form of payment, the company said.
“Chicago Atlantic brought detailed solutions to the table designed to scale our business with the utmost care and confidence,” said Austin Haller, CEO of Margo. “Their experience in our cutting-edge industry will help propel our long-term objectives, and we look forward to empowering secure digital currency investments for years to come.”
Now is a good time for investors to balance, manage liquidity and build a strategy to achieve their financial goals, says the investor letter signed by Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer of Global Wealth Management who provides 10 resolutions to boost portfolios.
A remarkable year is drawing to a close. A record-breaking pace of interest rate hikes helped push bond yields to 16-year highs. The US economy confounded expectations for a recession and grew at a 5% annualized pace in the third quarter. Transformative innovations in generative AI powered a stock market rally. Wars impacting two energy-producing regions also captured market attention.
The dawn of a new year is a time to reflect and to make plans for the year ahead. In this letter, we present 10 New Year’s resolutions aimed at helping your portfolio navigate what we are calling “a new world”:
Spend more time with family and friends – best wishes for the year ahead
Take up yoga – get in balance, and stay disciplined yet agile
Go for quality over quantity – buy quality in both bonds and stocks
Embrace change – pick leaders from disruption
Prepare for a rainy day – hedge market risks
Don’t put all your eggs in one basket – diversify with alternative credit
Try to see things from both sides – trade the range in currencies and commodities
Think about the long term – capture growth with private markets
Build a plan – a strategy for achieving your goals is key
Seize the moment – manage liquidity
We enter the new year with a preference for quality bonds, which we think still offer attractive yields and the potential for capital appreciation as growth decelerates. Lower bond yields in 2024 should also provide a supportive backdrop for equities.
In equities, we see particular opportunity in quality stocks across all sectors, including the US technology sector, which should be well placed to grow earnings despite a weaker economic environment.
Longer term, we expect disruptive trends in technology and other industries to create compelling investment opportunities in both public and private markets.
Vanguard has been predicting a shift to a higher interest rate environment, signaling a return to sound money. This transition, challenging for investors, is seen as a structural shift that will outlast the current business cycle, the asset manager says in its annual report titled A Return to Sound Money.
The persistence of positive real interest rates is expected to provide a stable foundation for long-term risk-adjusted returns. Unlike the past decade, the future promises more balanced returns for diversified investors. In light of this, a defensive risk posture might be prudent for those with suitable risk tolerance, given the higher expected fixed income returns and an equity market still adjusting to this shift, the experts added.
Policy Shift Towards Restriction
Monetary policy is anticipated to become more restrictive in real terms, as inflation approaches the targets set by central banks. As economic resilience dwindles, central banks might reduce policy interest rates. However, after peaking, policy rates are expected to stabilize at a higher level than pre-COVID-19 levels, marking the end of zero interest rates and ushering in a long-term higher-rate environment.
The Re-emergence of Bonds
With higher interest rates, long-term bond investors, particularly in U.S. aggregate bonds and intermediate Treasuries, are likely to see improved returns. U.S. equities, especially growth stocks, however, seem more overvalued compared to a year ago.
Long-term Implications
The next decade is set to experience an enduring shift in interest rates to higher levels than those seen since the 2008 global financial crisis. This change indicates a return to sound money, characterized by positive real interest rates. The implications for global economy and financial markets are substantial. A reset in borrowing and savings behavior, more judicious capital allocation, and recalibrated asset class return expectations are on the horizon. Vanguard believes this environment will benefit long-term investors, despite potential short-term turbulence.
Global Economic Resilience and Policy Changes
The global economy, particularly in the U.S., has shown more resilience than expected in 2023. However, this resilience may wane in 2024, with monetary policy becoming increasingly restrictive. The U.S., while currently counteracting the impact of higher policy rates, might face economic downturns as inflation returns to target. In contrast, Europe risks anemic growth due to restrictive policies, and China faces challenges despite policy stimulus.
Future Outlook
A potential recession may be necessary to reduce inflation, through decreased labor demand and slower wage growth. Central banks are likely to cut policy rates in late 2024, but these rates are expected to remain higher than in previous years. This shift reflects demographic changes, long-term productivity growth, and higher structural fiscal deficits. This higher interest rate environment, a significant financial development since the global financial crisis, will likely persist for years.
Implications for Stakeholders
This era of higher interest rates will influence borrowing, capital costs, and saving behaviors across households, businesses, and governments. It will compel governments to reassess fiscal outlooks amid rising deficits and interest rates. For diversified investors, the permanence of higher real interest rates offers a stable base for long-term risk-adjusted returns. However, financial markets may continue to experience volatility in the near term as the transition to higher rates continues.
Wilmington Trust released its 2024 Capital Markets Forecast (CMF) “US Economic Exceptionalism: Can the reign continue?” which highlights the current state of the U.S. economy and the factors contributing to its ability to adapt, but warns that a number of potential risks exist, which could impact the country’s economic growth.
The CMF tells a story about the U.S. economic qualities, driven by:
Economic Exceptionalism – A prosperous U.S. economy due to factors such as diminishing economic scarring, labor flexibility, and the role of AI in driving productivity and innovation.
Equity Market Superiority – The nation’s dominant ability to create technological advancements, adaptability in its overall labor market, and history of achieving greater profitability could continue to serve investors in large U.S. companies.
Risks and Opportunities – Historic levels of stimulus and significant repricing of U.S. equity valuations will be critical to assess and monitor.
“The U.S. economy’s continued ability to deliver growth and withstand disinflation has demonstrated to be a compelling force for attracting capital toward U.S. large-cap equities,” said Tony Roth, Wilmington Trust’s Chief Investment Officer. “However, the overall narrative remains incomplete without acknowledging challenges to the long-term sustainability of this equity outperformance, including chronic deficit spending, total debt surpassing annual GDP, and the current interest-rate environment.”
“The power of technological investment, notably with artificial intelligence (AI), forward looking policy frameworks, and a flexible labor market, will propel significant productivity gains and pave the way for a renewed era of U.S. equity leadership,” noted Roth.
Drivers of Exceptionalism
For decades, the United States has been an economic leader — displaying more consistent growth than other developed countries. There are three broad components to consider as forces that have shaped this:
Growth Pillars: Infrastructure, capital markets, demographics, education, and labor flexibility are critical pillars to shaping economic excellence. Robust higher education, a flexible labor market and pioneering AI development have contributed to the US’s dominance here. In the coming year these structural advantages are projected to drive economic performance.
Policy Framework: Fiscal responsiveness of economies is also a key driver of relative performance, and the U.S. has showcased strengths targeted toward income and consumption. However, increased government debt poses challenges to long-term growth.
Innovative Capacity: Innovation is a crucial component of economic productivity as economies with robust digital infrastructure and significant investments in research and development are well-positioned. The growing significance of AI will shape the economic landscape, and the U.S. has demonstrated to be early adopters for these tools, which could continue to drive growth and productivity in 2024.
Equity Market Superiority
U.S. equities have continued to demonstrate remarkable performance by attracting investor capital and expanding global market capitalization. The drivers of this growth can be attributed to three economic characteristics, which all relate directly to U.S. resilience:
Valuation Expansion: The largest source of U.S. equity outperformance is justified by factors including its dominant position in innovation and swift policy response in the aftermath of the last two recessions. A potential “Goldilocks” scenario – characterized by slower but sustained growth and continued disinflation that allows the Fed to ease policy – could lead to a valuation rebound for sectors left behind in 2023, potentially benefiting large-cap investors.
Profitability: At the core of U.S. equity outperformance also lies a steady commitment to profitability, shaped by favorable fiscal and monetary policies, flexible labor markets, and strategic tax advantages for corporations. The U.S. maintains a commanding global position in innovation and is strategically positioned to maintain its advantage in technology development and adoption, which may continue to create positive economic tailwinds.
Currency and Liquidity: The interplay of currency strength and liquidity dynamics plays a pivotal role in U.S. equity outperformance. The dollar has continued to appreciate against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, which has provided a notable advantage to U.S. equities for dollar-based investors. Liquidity has not only supported U.S. equity returns but has also contributed to a climate of moderate inflation.
However, the extent of dominance might see some moderation or fluctuation over a longer timeframe than one year.
Risks and Opportunities
While key growth pillars largely remain sound and are likely to continue powering the U.S. economy in the coming years, there are also varying economic risks — particularly around growing debt and impaired ability to respond to future shocks. Concurrently, demographic shifts pose challenges to debt sustainability and labor force growth.
Market risks also provide some vulnerabilities for the U.S. market. Valuations and interest rates – while currently viewed as manageable — have the ability to dislodge the U.S. from the top ranks of global economies. Despite this, U.S. equities have a structural advantage and diversification may be looked upon as a tested strategy.
The potential for a U.S. economic recession has been reduced, but not eliminated. In the case of a recession, Wilmington Trust notes that the U.S. economy has the foundational elements to bounce back more quickly than other countries facing their own sets of economic challenges.
To read the full report, please click on the following link.
Florida home prices remain close to peak levels following rapid gains during the pandemic of approximately 60% that exceeded most other states, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
If recent trends hold through year-end 2023, home prices will likely increase year-over-year by about 6% in Florida and the rest of the U.S. Fitch is forecasting an increase in U.S. home prices of 0%-3% in 2024.
Residential property Taxable Assessed Value (TAV) in Florida, which was 78% of aggregate TAV in 2022, has been more volatile compared with commercial property values, which are 15% of total TAV. Residential property value YoY growth of around 15% in 2022 powered TAV increases, while commercial values rose much more modestly at just under 5%.
Recent weakness in commercial real estate, particularly office properties, may weigh on assessed values, but Florida counties’ limited exposure to office property values will moderate the impact of declines on overall TAV.
Since 2001, home prices in Florida have been more cyclical relative to the U.S., characterized by higher price increases during upcycles and steeper declines during downturns. Florida has the strongest relationship of any state between property tax collections and home prices, largely due to the annual assessment of taxable values, which are not subject to multi-year smoothing.
This means localities are well positioned to capture market value increases in tax revenues but also quickly see the negative impact of home price declines on TAVs, which can lead to increases in property tax rates to offset declines. Florida’s levying practices and millage rate mechanism help stabilize tax revenues from year to year.
In the longer term, rising premiums and reduced availability of homeowners’ property insurance could affect market activity and home prices in certain areas. Insurance plays a key role in securing mortgages and enabling rebuilding following natural disasters.
Members of the Group of Boutique Asset Managers (GBAM) are operating on five continents, and all are squaring up to 2024 by focusing on their usual ‘bottom up’ approach. But regardless of where they are on the globe, it’s clear that consistent themes are emerging at the macro level as well as some distinctly local ones in their 2024 outlooks.
Continued retreat from peak inflation and interest rates are central to expectations. The uncertainty element around rates is whether they may be held at levels that spark a soft landing, if not a recession in certain developed markets. But at the same time there is a sniff of opportunity: Emerging Markets could be winners from US Fed rate cuts alongside local elections leading to policy changes and economic reform.
The political factor looms large, with more than half the World’s population going to the polls through 2024, while ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East in particular pose threats to food and energy prices.
The continued march of technology, digitisation and Artificial Intelligence notwithstanding, the reduced likelihood of the Magnificent Seven accounting for such a large share of stock market returns will put the spotlight on active management amid recognition of valuations in traditional asset classes and opportunities in diversification into alternatives and convertible bonds.
In Edinburgh, Scotland, Andrew Ward, Chief Executive Officer at Aubrey Capital Management, the specialist global manager, says: “The three global factors that will most likely affect our business in 2024 include a normalising of global inflation and interest rates, putting cash back in the pockets of ordinary consumers, thereby boosting the revenues of the sorts of companies in which we invest; the ratcheting back of inter-state conflict and the threat of such, creating more stability for trade to flourish and ordinary humans to live their lives, travel and spend hard-earned cash as they wish; and the sensible development and growth of AI (and other appropriate tech) that benefits modest businesses like ours, allowing us the scope to do more routine data processing (of various types) inhouse, thereby depending less on expensive near-monopolistic ‘providers’, ultimately allowing us to dramatically reduce fees and improve net returns to our clients.”
In Stavanger, Norway, The Chairman of GBAM and Chief Executive of SKAGEN Funds, Tim Warrington, opines that: “This year, in contrast to last, the consensus seems to be a soft-landing over recession; albeit with most hedging, noting that much needs to continue to go right to both deliver and sustain it.”
Putting aside elections on both sides of the Pond, where Tim sees too much at stake to expect significant policy changes, he says: “The narrow basis to success in 2023 – the AI-charged Magnificent Seven delivering more than half the market gains – will not endure ad infinitum. And interest rate tops in the developed markets will be supportive to emerging markets. So active managers should have advantage, especially those investing in small- to mid-caps and further afield.”
Also in the Europe region, MAPFRE’s Chief Investment Officer José Luís Jimenez in Madrid, Spain, and Co-Founder of GBAM, echoes the points of both of politics and uncertainty when he says: “History, like economics, is cyclical and bearing in mind that next year more than half of the population of the World will go to the polls, despite many of the ballot results being already known, uncertainty is all over the place However, most investors are suffering somekind of Peter Pan Syndrome: ‘A soft landing lies ahead, and it will be excellent for stocks and bonds’; ‘Interest rates cuts are around the corner next year and thanks to a strong labour market, Covid´s savings and cheaper finance, the World economy will do well’. But all experienced economists know that predictions are one thing and reality another. Many things could go wrong next year.”
Shifting the spotlight away from developed to emerging markets, there are signs that investors may come to appreciate this sector more than has been the case in recent years.
Reflecting on the relative opportunities for emerging markets, Ladislao Larraín, Chief Executive Officer at LarrainVial AM, the largest non-banking asset manager in Chile, based in Santiago, says: “The shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy cycle is key to improving asset returns in emerging economies. The accelerating decline in inflation in the United States and globally has made it likely that the Fed’s rate cutsare likely to materialize before mid-2024. In this context, we are highly optimistic about political and macroeconomic developments in Latin America, where recent elections have been won by pro-free-market forces. This, coupled with very negative poll standings for most of the leftwing coalitions in power, promises to reverse the pink tide in the region. Additionally, the region’s countries have favourable macroeconomic stories such as the agro- and oil export boom in Brazil and nearshoring in Mexico.”
Charles Ferraz, Chief Executive Officer at the New York-based investment boutique Itaú USA Asset Management says: “Looking ahead to 2024, the US markets remain influenced by interest rates fluctuations, government spending, and potential election-related volatility. Caution is advised for the US equity markets, but emerging market equities should benefit from the scenario. In Brazil, the markets anticipate potential gains as global interest rates fall, combined with the ongoing local adjustments. With a robust current account, favourable geopolitical positioning, and growing capital markets, Brazil becomes an attractive destination for investments. However, the fiscal deficit continues to be a challenge. Overall, this dynamic sets the stage for optimism in both the stock market and the local currency (BRL).”
From another emerging market region, Hlelo (Lo) Nc. Giyose, Chief Investment Officer & Principal at First Avenue Investment Management, the long only equities specialist manager based in Johannesburg, South Africa, spots similarities in that that local developments in policy could have a significant impact on return expectations, as the country’s GDP has been in decline since 2011 even as it faces a rampant public service wage bill funded by debt that has reached a limit.
“It is time for the 33% of unemployed South Africans to go back to work (productively) to drive both pension fund flows and economic growth per capita. The reason we are pointing this out is that 2024 is a watershed year where the governing party, the African National Congress, is projected to lose its majority in government. The country can now focus on reforms from parties that have been critical of the economic malaise of the past 13 years.”
Over in Hong Kong, Ronald Chan, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Chartwell Capital, the independent asset manager focused on China’s Greater Bay Area and the Asia-Pacific region, identifies elections next year in Taiwan and the US presidential election as particularly important events affecting the local business environment, along with rates decisions by the US Fed affecting asset prices and stock markets in Asia. The possibility of a global economic slowdown “could pose challenges for companies in Hong Kong, however, it’s important to note that challenges are often accompanied by opportunities, and businesses that can adapt to changing market conditions may find new avenues for growth and innovation.”
The local market faces specific conditions: valuations of Hong Kong local stocks are at their lowest in 30 years; dividend yields are in many cases at their highest, ranging from 8%-11%; and while foreign capital has been cautious due to concerns around China, mainland Chinese capital may be overlooking local businesses.
Another way to approach uncertainty is to consider asset class allocations. Members of GBAM have identified a number of opportunities emerging into 2024 despite identified risks stemming from the ongoing macro environment, particularly uncertainty around the pace of change in interest rates.
Paulo Del Priore, Partner at Farview, the global multi-strategy investment manager with offices in London, UK andSão Paulo, Brazil, highlights that amid a global investment landscape still marked by increasing complexity, heightened geopolitical tensions, and volatility, there is a shift in the correlation between equity and bonds, which, he says: “Challenges traditional investment approaches, such as buy-and-hold, underscoring the importance of incorporating alternative risk premia strategies into traditional portfolios. In 2024, we anticipate wider spreads in absolute returns, contributing to a more positive outlook.”
In Zurich, Switzerland, Dr. Pius Fisch, Chairman of Fisch Asset Management, a global leader in convertible bonds, says that amid a “tug-of-war” between increasing risk of recession and simultaneously falling interest rates “we believe that 2024 will be a promising year for fixed income, and for EM corporates in particular.”
“Investment-grade corporate bonds should be able to benefit strongly from an easing of monetary policy, but high-yield companies should also stand to gain from potentially lower refinancing rates. In addition, solid fundamentals and continued low default rates represent a robust backdrop. In the emerging markets complex, we also see very attractive carry for higher-quality companies with strong balance sheets and short maturities.”
And from Francisco Rodríguez d’Achille, Partner & Director of Lonvia Capital, the small- and mid-cap company specialist based in Paris, France, comes thoughts that: “Like in 2022, so far this year 2023 has left a significant de-rating in our portfolio in terms of valuation. A pause in the interest rate policy by the central banks will bring a return to fundamentals and with it a strong revaluation of companies that are growing structurally without depending on exogenous factors, despite the fact that they have been heavily punished in terms of price and valuation.”
