John Taylor: “The optimal point for euro credit is the crossover zone between IG and HY”

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Photo courtesyJohn Taylor, experto en renta fija europea de AllianceBernstein.

In the opinion of John Taylor, European fixed income expert at AllianceBernstein, it is an interesting time for this asset. With the recent market events and falling levels that we had only seen during the global financial crisis, investors have taken a step back. In this interview, the expert has shared his view on fixed income and which fixed income assets are the most attractive in the current market environment.

Given how we ended and how we started the year in the fixed income market, what role is it destined to play in investors’ portfolios this year?

Fixed Income is an interesting one. With recent market events and drawdown levels many of us have only seen during the global financial crisis, investors have taken a step back. This is perfectly understandable when we consider how strong the exposure in the region has historically been in the asset class. Our European Income portfolio is something that indeed does seem appealing for medium to long term investors. It is often neglected that although the recovery in public markets happens over an extended period, it is individual days or weeks that make up this recovery

What impact will it have on fixed income assets if the ECB does not lower interest rates as fast as the market expects? Which fixed income assets could benefit from this scenario, and which ones would be hurt the most?

When growth forecasts are below trend, it doesn’t take much for a technical recession to occur. Our base case is for a soft landing which does incorporate a chance of a very shallow recession driven by Germany. However, a factor often overlooked is that real wage growth is likely to be positive this year which should underpin some resilience in consumer spending.

Markets are broadly pricing in a soft landing, with the ECB and other central banks likely to lower rates to the perceived “neutral rate” over the next 1-2 years. A so called soft landing is likely good for both duration and risk assets. However, if the probability of recession increases in the coming quarters then duration will continue to perform because central banks would lower rates into easy territory whilst risk assets will start to underperform due to corporate profitability concerns.

Why do you think that this is a good time to enter European fixed income?

Policy easing should help euro and UK sovereign bonds, while fundamental, technical and valuation factors are all supportive for euro credit markets.

From stubbornly high inflation through economic and geopolitical storms, 2023 brought a challenging backdrop for European bond investors. But as we approach 2024, we see attractive opportunities ahead.

In the last year, duration was key to fixed income investing (as there was a clear preference for short durations), but what about durations now? Is it worthwhile to remain positioned for short durations?

With the era of negative rates behind us, euro government 10-year AAA bonds offer positive yields of almost 3%, creating scope for yields to fall and prices to rise meaningfully. If economic growth should disappoint or a shock should cause equity and credit markets to fall, euro and UK sovereign bonds look set to perform well.

The main worries for euro and UK treasury markets are mounting fiscal deficits leading to excess government bond supply and higher inflation risk premiums. These global pressures point to likely steepening at the long end of the euro and UK curves, where such factors tend to have most impact, and where we think investors should be underweight.

Currently both the UK and euro government yield curves are abnormally flat, and their long ends could steepen sharply as they return to more normal levels. The spread between short and very long–dated bond yields is currently around 20 bps in Germany and 43 bps in the UK, compared with 12-year averages of around 105 bps. We prefer UK and Euro government bonds with less than five years to maturity, which will likely be the most responsive to rate cuts and the least sensitive to the longer-term factors driving long-dated treasuries.

Several countries at the EU’s periphery have improved their credit ratings lately. While the recent Moody’s upgrade has boosted Italian government bond prices, we think Italy has more work to do to keep up with peers.

UK gilts look cheap relative to German Bunds, and we expect the yield gap between them will continue to narrow. The twin benefits of higher yields and some spread tightening would give UK gilts scope to perform well over the next six to 12 months.

You mentioned in one of your insights that investment grade credit is a good place to be positioned. What advantages does this asset class offer right now?

We see the sweet spot for euro credit as the crossover zone between investment grade and high yield: BBB and BB-rated bonds. While more risk-averse investors will prefer BBB, our research shows that historically an allocation to BB has generated additional returns through the cycle in all but the worst default scenarios, with euro BBs outperforming BBBs over time by around 2% per year. Of course, euro BBB returns have been more stable. But on a risk-adjusted basis, BB still has an edge. European credit fundamentals look encouraging. Corporate balance sheets started the tightening phase in good shape, and higher rates are feeding through only gradually to corporate costs. We expect euro and UK default rates will rise but stay relatively low at 3%–4% over 2024.

On the other hand, however, many experts are warning about the risks of high yield, what is your view on this asset class? Are defaults expected to increase?

Technical factors are also supportive across European credit markets, particularly for euro high yield. The market has shrunk by almost 15% since 2021, owing to both recent maturities and a net €10 billion of upgraded credits migrating out of high yield to investment grade.
The remaining euro high-yield market is skewed 64% to BB—which is currently the segment investors favor. Around 7% of the market will mature in 2024, but we think strong demand should readily absorb any new higher-quality supply.

In terms of current yields, valuations look supportive too. Euro BBB investment-grade bonds are yielding 5%—the same as the lowest-rated CCC bonds in 2017. And in euro high yield, a starting yield of 7.25% provides a substantial cushion against downside risks. Adjusting for interest-rate sensitivity, yields would need to increase by over 250 bps to wipe out that high income and produce negative returns. And to underperform sovereign bonds, spreads would need to widen from the current 483 bps by over 150 bps.

In your opinion, which sectors or types of companies are the most appropriate to hold a fixed income exposure?

Banks are in a strong position to absorb losses from bad loans and securities, have strong ongoing earnings capacity (as seen in earnings releases) and have created loanloss reserves. Capital ratios remain high, and non-performing loans (NPLs) are near all-time lows. Deposits are more diversified than in regional banks, enabling larger banks to benefit from a “flight to quality” by depositors. We expect credit metrics to weaken somewhat from their highs as growth declines, but not to the extent that would trigger ratings downgrades. We expect capital adequacy ratios to decrease to medium-term targets, and NPLs to move toward “through the cycle” levels. Overall, we see banks as well positioned to absorb credit losses as they come through, given their strong starting position. Also, given these banks’ systemic importance, we believe that regulators would provide support in the event of financial distress, as they did in March.

Outside of financials, our largest industry weights are in consumer cyclicals and communications. We focus on companies with improved balance sheets and liquidity profiles. Within consumer cyclicals, we focus on higher-quality bonds. We prefer businesses that should be more resilient during the current environment (like autos or local leisure issuers that can benefit from increased local versus international travel as growth slows). Additionally, communications companies may be better insulated from the economic slowdown. When looking at new additions, we tend to focus on consumer non-cyclicals and other more defensive sectors.

Within GBP credit, the positioning across sectors is diversified with the largest exposure in communications. We are selective in the names we hold, preferring those where we feel comfortable underwriting through cycles. Our positions are in issuers who have global revenue streams—meaning those in more defensive sectors or those that our research indicates can withstand the current macro backdrop but offer compelling valuations. The GBP credit offers a spread pickup over EUR credit for comparable risk.

US Housing Market Outlook: Prices Expected to Rise in 2024

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US home prices are projected to increase by 5% in 2023, up from the previous forecast of 1.9%, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

This upward revision is based on a number of factors, including the prospect of interest rate cuts and strong momentum in housing prices.

The Federal Reserve has signaled that it may cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2024, which has led to expectations that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will fall to 6.3% by the end of the year. This will make homes slightly more affordable and help to support higher home prices.

Recent home price index releases have shown strong momentum, with the annualized rate running around 8%. This, combined with low inventory and stable demand, is expected to support higher home prices in the coming year.

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs Research’s forecasts are based on different models that incorporate the largest 380 metros, rather than a national model. This allows for a more nuanced view of the housing market, with housing falling into three main buckets: expensive areas that have gotten more expensive, affordable areas that have become somewhat expensive, and relatively cheap areas that are expected to see the strongest growth.

In case of rental, affordability is still a factor for many potential home buyers, particularly those in the largest demographic of 30- to 39-year-olds. With financing costs higher than they have been in recent years, it is still cheaper to rent than to buy in many cases. However, mortgage affordability is expected to improve slightly in the near term under Goldman Sachs Research’s baseline housing and mortgage forecasts.

This article was based on a Goldman Sachs Report which can be found at the following link.

 

Individual Investors Show Increasing Interest in Sustainability

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Individual investor interest in sustainable investing is high and rising, according to a new “Sustainable Signals” report by the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing and Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

“Nearly 80% of individual investors believe that it is possible to balance market rate financial returns with a focus on sustainability,” says Jessica Alsford, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Sustainability Officer and CEO of the Institute for Sustainable Investing. “A majority of individual investors also express a desire for their investments to advance positive environmental and social impact, creating opportunities for finance professionals to meet these needs.”

According to the survey, more than three quarters (77%) of individual investors globally are interested in investing in companies or funds that aim to achieve market-rate financial returns while considering positive social and/or environmental impact. In addition, more than half (57%) say their interest has increased in the last two years, while 54% say they anticipate boosting allocations to sustainable investments in the next year.

The findings also highlight key areas of interest and concern among investors. Climate action emerged as the top sustainable investing theme, with 15% of investors prioritizing it, followed by healthcare, water solutions, and the circular economy. Despite the shift towards sustainability, traditional energy companies remain in consideration for nearly 80% of investors, provided these companies demonstrate serious commitments to reducing their carbon footprint and addressing climate change.

However, challenges such as a lack of transparency and trust in sustainability reporting, alongside fears of greenwashing, are noted as significant barriers preventing investors from committing to sustainable investments. Many investors are also interested in social themes but are uncertain about how to engage effectively.

In addition, survey respondents cite a lack of transparency and trust in sustainability reporting (63%) and the potential for greenwashing (61%) as concerns that prevent them from making sustainable investments. They also express an interest in investing in social themes but uncertainty around where to begin.

The report concludes that investors could benefit from the guidance of investment professionals. More than half (52%) of respondents self-report limited knowledge about how to start investing sustainably, with 47% saying there is a lack of financial products available. These findings indicate increased opportunity for asset managers and investment platforms to help investors meet their sustainability goals; 58% of global investors would be likely to select a financial advisor or investment platform based on sustainable investment offerings.

The Sustainable Signals series was launched in 2015 and measures the views of individual investors, institutional investors and corporates on sustainable investing. The survey polled 2,820 active individual investors across the U.S., Europe and Japan to assess interest in sustainability and understand where investors see the most opportunity and potential risk.

View the full results of the Sustainable Signals survey here.

BlackRock Expands Commitment to DC Advisor Channel

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Blue Mahoe Capital ficha asesoría estratégica de Kingswood
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BlackRock announced two major developments supporting the growth and advancement of defined contribution (DC) advisors.

The firm has appointed Carrie Schroen as Head of US DC Intermediary Business, a newly created role, joining the already established leadership team for the business.

Schroen most recently served as a national sales manager within BlackRock’s U.S. Wealth Advisory team and brings more than 20 years of experience working with financial advisors, including starting her career as an advisor herself. Schroen’s track record and expertise uniquely positions her to lead the growth of BlackRock’s business with retirement plan advisors in an evolving landscape, where the role of intermediaries is expanding, large national firms are consolidating, and demand for personalized investment solutions is increasing.

Moreover, BlackRock launched the Defined Contribution Practice Management Program, providing robust tools and resources for retirement plan advisors of all sizes. It is the latest addition to BlackRock’s growing value-add program, developed to meet the needs of the 62% of retirement specialist advisors who want more support in building their DC business and the 39% of plan advisors who would value support growing their wealth business. The firm sees the convergence of wealth and defined contribution as a new frontier for the DC Advisor channel.

Anne Ackerley, Head of BlackRock’s Retirement Group, said, “As the DC Advisor landscape evolves, BlackRock is at the forefront – committed to anticipating and addressing the needs of this important channel. Through new tools and new leadership, we will help strengthen relationships and position BlackRock as the best partner to our clients.”

These announcements come at a time when advisors are playing an increasingly vital role in helping individuals plan a more secure retirement. The amount of corporate DC assets managed by retirement plan advisors grew by 14% CAGR between 2018 and 2022 versus 6% for the market overall.

“In an increasingly competitive environment, advisors are solving complex workplace and wealth needs for more sophisticated investors, as market and demographic dynamics lead clients to consider active and retirement income solutions,” said Schroen. “BlackRock reduces the complexity, partnering with advisors to deliver best-in-class investment solutions. With our new practice management hub, we are arming advisors with turnkey resources for plans and participants so they can spend more time building relationships that drive business growth.”

At launch, BlackRock’s Defined Contribution Practice Management Program includes digital resources for both seasoned retirement plan advisors as well as those who are newer to the DC space. Looking ahead, the firm plans to spearhead additional research, content, initiatives, and technology solutions to support advisors navigating the complex needs of DC plans and participants.

Blackstone Announces Thomas R. Nides as Vice Chairman, Strategy and Client Relations

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Blackstone announced Thomas R. Nides, former long-time Vice Chairman of Morgan Stanley, Deputy Secretary of State, and Ambassador to Israel has joined the firm as Vice Chairman, Strategy and Client Relations.

In this new role, Nides will support a variety of strategic firmwide initiatives and special projects, as well as focus on senior client relationships globally.

“We are delighted to welcome Tom Nides to Blackstone. Tom has operated at the highest levels of both the public and private sectors and brings a wealth of relationships across the financial, government and geographic spectrum. We are still in the early innings of our global expansion and believe he will be a tremendous asset to our people and clients,” said Stephen A. Schwarzman, Co-Founder, Chairman and CEO.

Nides has extensive experience in both the public and private sector. He served as the United States’ Ambassador to Israel from 2021 to 2023. Prior to that, he spent over a decade at Morgan Stanley in various capacities including Chief Operating Officer and Vice Chairman.

Nides was appointed Deputy Secretary of State and Chief Operating Officer of the U.S. State Department by President Barack Obama (2009-2017) and was awarded the nation’s highest diplomatic honor by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for his service.

He has also previously been a senior leader at Credit Suisse, Fannie Mae, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, and on Capitol Hill.

Nides currently serves on the boards of the Partnership for Public Service, the International Rescue Committee, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and the Urban Alliance Foundation. He received his B.A. from the University of Minnesota. He formerly served as chairman of the board of the Woodrow Wilson Center.

Nides said: “Blackstone’s world-class people, consistent outperformance, and high-integrity culture have contributed to its stature as a leading global investment platform with considerable wind at its back. I’m excited to join this high-caliber team to help support the firm’s continued growth.”

 

Bolton Enters 2024 Attracting Quality Advisors, according to President Steve Preskenis

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Photo courtesySteve Preskenis, Bolton Global Capital President

Bolton Global is forecasting 15% to 20% growth in its US Offshore business this year going forward and are confident of achieving these goals through recruiting “top-tier” financial advisors, the firm’s president Steve Preskenis told Funds Society.

“We anticipate that we will grow our business by 15-20% and add at least 6 to 10 new affiliates, primarily from the wire house world,” Preskenis responded when asked what Bolton’s goals were for 2024 in the US Offshore market.

“Over the past decade, Bolton has invested significant resources and focused our efforts on raising our presence in Latin America and other parts of the world where investors seek access to the US financial markets.  We are honored to be the Broker-dealer of choice of leading international financial advisors and their clients, ” he added.

In addition, on a more general level, Bolton expects “continued profitable” growth by adding advisors for both domestic US and international business, expanding capabilities to meet market demand, and adopting the ever-evolving technologies required by top-tier advisors, he added.

“Bolton is a uniquely balanced firm with strong domestic and offshore advisory practices.  We have built brokerage and advisory platforms to accommodate a wide variety of client engagements for our advisors,” Preskenis noted.

Separately, Bolton will continue its existing management structure, enhanced by the addition of John Cataldo, who arrived from Integrated Partners, as Chief Administrative Officer & Chief Legal Officer. “John brings a wealth of legal, risk management and operational experience to our team.” Preskenis commented.

The firm is in the process of recruiting for the new position of Head of Business Development, following the announcement of Michael Avarett’s departure.

Market Forecasts

In reference to the trends that Bolton expects to resonate in 2024, “technology will continue to dominate the evolution of our space and lead the way in 2024,” summarized Bolton’s president.

He expects that as technology becomes more entrenched in financial services, advisors who learn how to leverage those resources while still providing personal white-glove service to investors, will gain the advantage over those who rely too heavily on technology or shun it altogether. “Technology is a resource.  Like any other tool, it requires skill and expertise to use it effectively to the client’s advantage.  Bolton provides its advisors with access to industry-leading technology and platforms that they can deploy at their discretion.  Independent advisors seek us out specifically for the flexibility that we provide them.”

In addition, Preskenis anticipates that “the ESG frenzy will continue to subside, interest rate fluctuations  will impact investment decisions, and markets will continue to look for signs of frothy, overvalued sectors.”

Election year

2024 will also be marked by national elections, and that has the industry on its toes.

“A lot of people make predictions about the impact of elections on the financial markets.  In fact, these predictions change faster than the polls,” observed the Bolton president who noted that “in general a republican administration tends to generate a more positive business climate.  It is too early to anticipate how the election will impact the US and global financial markets, but, as the Republican party coalesces around one candidate, a picture will come into focus on the strength of Biden against his competitor.  One thing that is certain is that it will be a hard-fought campaign.”

Insigneo Appoints Michael Averett as Chief Revenue Officer

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Photo courtesyMichael Averett, Chief Revenue Officer (CRO) at Insigneo

Insigneo announced the appointment of Michael Averett as Chief Revenue Officer (CRO). This newly created role, based in Miami, will be reporting to Javier Rivero, President & COO of Insigneo.

As CRO, Averett will be overseeing the firm’s revenue-generating facets and actively driving the company’s organic growth strategy, the firm said.

Averett brings to Insigneo more than two decades of experience in financial services, concentrated in the United States as well as in Latin America. He has held leadership roles at Citigroup and led teams that delivered annual revenues of more than $150 million and, most recently, as Head of Business Development for Bolton Global Capital.

His expertise spans all functional areas of Global Wealth Management, including Cross-Border Team Leadership, Securities Industry Regulatory Environment, Business Strategy and P&L Management, showcasing a robust and proven track record in the financial services space.

He holds a Master of International Management from the Thunderbird School of Global Management and has his Series 7, 9, 10, 24 and 66 investment licenses.

During his career at Citi, Averett, who is fluent in Spanish, lived in Mexico and Colombia, where he gained valuable insights and experiences that contribute to his global perspective.

“We are delighted to welcome Michael to our growing Insigneo family; we are confident that his experience and background will complement our senior management team to contribute greatly to the future development and success of the firm and our clients,” mentioned Rivero.

The addition of Michael Averett to Insigneo’s leadership team highlights the company’s continued momentum to attract top industry talent, reinforcing its commitment to growth and excellence. With this incorporation, the company is poised for continued success by providing an exceptional experience to its network of investment professionals and positioning Insigneo as a leader, concluded the statement.

ATL Appoints José Astorqui CEO of its New Miami-based firm ALT RE

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Photo courtesyJosé Astorqui, CEO at ATL RE

ATL, a broker of commercial insurance solutions, has expanded its global presence with the launch of ATL RE, an independent reinsurance broker serving the Latin America and the Caribbean markets via its new Miami office.

Through the new Miami hub, ATL RE will offer a comprehensive range of commercial reinsurance products including Financial Lines, Property and Energy, Construction, Accident and Health, Treaty and Marine, across a number of key Latin American markets, including Mexico, Ecuador, Argentina, Uruguay, Peru and Bolivia, the statement said.

To oversee ATL RE’s continued growth in this region, the company has appointed José Astorqui, former CEO and CCO of BMS Group Latin America and Caribbean, as Partner and CEO of ATL RE. Astorqui has a renowned track record of driving growth at some of the largest insurance brokers and providers in the world, having previously held the positions of CEO at Lions Gate Latin America and Caribbean, and Managing Director Latin America at Howden Insurance Brokers

Joining Astorqui as part of ATL RE’s leadership team will also be Andrew Hye in the role of Partner and Executive Director, who joins from Summa Brickell where he was Head of Treaty and Energy, heading up the development of the business’ local network in the region. With over 40 years of experience in the international insurance and reinsurance industry, Andrew has also held leadership roles at BMS, Guy Carpenter and Aon.

Astorqui & Hye appointments are the first of several to be announced in the coming months as ATL RE continues to add internationally-recognised expertise to its team.

Iñaki Bandres, CEO at ATL and Chairman at ATL RE, commented: “We are delighted to announce the launch of ATL RE in Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as the appointments of José and Andrew to the leadership team. By bringing together some of the most distinguished experts from across the global insurance and reinsurance industry, with specialist knowledge of Latin America and the Caribbean markets, we’re able to expand our footprint further and provide our clients with a first-class service wherever they trade.”

José Astorqui, CEO at ATL RE, added: “I’m excited to be joining ATL RE and to oversee its growth into Latin America and the Caribbean; markets I have grown to know very well throughout my career. With the expertise already within the business, as well as incoming appointments, I’m very confident that we will be able to provide an unbeatable service to customers in the region.”

Insigneo Welcomes Aventura Private Wealth and its Founder Shmuel Maya

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Insigneo announced the addition of Aventura Private Wealth LLC, and its founder Shmuel Maya, to their platform of global financial advisors. 

“Leveraging the sophisticated capabilities of Goldman Sachs Advisor Solutions for domestic clients, Shmuel Maya and his team at Aventura Private Wealth, which includes Ahmed Roshdy and Andrea Bruno, both formerly of JPMorgan Chase, bring over 20 years of combined experience in private wealth management to their new venture. They collectively managed over $430 million at their previous firm. The new firm will draw on extensive experience in global financial markets and cater to high-net-worth individuals, the press release said.

“Our decision to transition aligns with the evolving needs of our valued clients. The launch of Aventura Private Wealth empowers us to seamlessly serve our client base.  Our clientele spans a broad spectrum, encompassing business owners, individuals in the hotel industry, and multi-generational family wealth offices, for which we recognize the unique aspirations and objectives of such diverse groups. With this move, we unlock a realm of possibilities for our clients. The horizon is very bright, not just for our team but, most importantly, for our clients,” stated Shmuel Maya, owner of Aventura Private Wealth

Insigneo and Goldman Sachs Advisor Solutions have signed a custody agreement to support the domestic clients of Aventura Private Wealth.

Clients of Aventura Private Wealth will have access to Goldman Sachs Advisor Solutions’ institutional-grade investment capabilities, portfolio analytics, lending solutions, intellectual capital and research.

Shmuel and his team will focus on providing wealth management solutions to individuals, families, endowments, and retirement plans. This strategic move aims to capitalize on the growth and expansion opportunities in the Florida and Southeast markets, the statement added.

Jose Salazar, Market Head for Miami at Insigneo, expressed excitement about Shmuel’s addition to their wealth management platform stating, “We are thrilled to welcome Shmuel and Aventura Private Wealth to our team.  Their experience and proven success in the industry will be a valuable asset as we continue to expand our business model in key markets across the US.”

Prior to Aventura Private Wealth, Shmuel worked at JP Morgan Chase for twelve years. He attended Northeastern University in Boston, with a focus in finance and political science. A native of South Florida, Shmuel lives in Aventura with his wife and three young children. He enjoys playing pickleball and participating in Miami’s vibrant art community.

Family Office Risk Appetite is Growing as Acquisitions Become More Attractive

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Family office risk appetite is set to expand over the next 12 months as companies focus on acquisition opportunities amid expectations that inflation and interest rates will fall, new research from Ocorian shows.

Ocorian’s international study among family office investment managers shows investment risk appetite this year is much higher than last year. Almost half (46%) senior executives questioned in the international study say their organisation’s investment risk appetite will increase in the year ahead. That compares with just 8% who said their investment risk appetite increased in the past 12 months.

The key reason for the rise in investment risk appetite in the year ahead is the belief that pricing around deals will become more attractive. One in ten (10%) selected that as one of their top three reasons for an increased investment risk appetite, followed by lower interest rates (10%) and developments around artificial intelligence and technology (8%).

However major concerns identified in the study are global political uncertainty, costs in general increasing and worries that inflation may not fall.

Around 36% of firms whose investment risk appetite is falling cited political uncertainty while 22% highlighted costs in general increasing and 18% highlighted inflation as the reason for their declining risk appetite.

Ocorian’s study found family offices worldwide maintained their focus on risk mitigation over the last 12 months with 48% having increased their overall budget for risk management and 46% expanded EIS schemes.  Around 44% have expanded their risk management budget. 

Family offices are still very much focused on risk mitigation. Half (50%) will invest more in new technology in order to mitigate risks while 44% plan to expand their risk management budget and 42% will increase their overall budget for risk management. 

Paul Spendiff, Head of Business Development – Fund Services, at Ocorian, said: “Investment risk appetite is clearly increasing with senior executives and major investors expecting a shift in global macroeconomic conditions as well as more opportunities for acquisitions at more attractive prices.

“The optimism about the year ahead and growing confidence is tempered by a focus on risk management and there is evidence from the study that companies have invested this year in new technology and risk management staff in order to expand in the year ahead.

“That focus is being maintained and we are seeing growing demand for our services as we help our clients solve these complex issues. In addition there are major concerns about the year ahead ranging from global political uncertainty and heightened global tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine as well as the risk of recession in major economies.”