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David Samuels Joins Promontory Financial Group as Managing Director

Promontory Financial Group, a premier strategy, risk-management, regulatory, and compliance consulting firm for financial services firms worldwide, announced that David Samuels, former Global Head of Risk Solutions and Analytics for S&P Capital IQ, has joined the firm as a Managing Director. Samuels, who is based in New York, but will continue to spend extensive time in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region, will drive the development of a stress-testing solutions business and expanded analytical solutions, benchmarks and models, on a global basis.

“The financial crisis highlighted the critical importance of effective risk management. Today, institutions must handle heightened regulatory oversight as well as new and changing expectations,” said Promontory Chief Executive Officer and Founder Eugene A. Ludwig. “David brings the right mix of analytic and senior managerial strengths to this initiative and has developed a strong reputation for helping financial institutions proactively monitor their individual and enterprise-wide risks in an evolving environment.”

Samuels has spent more than 25 years developing and providing risk-management solutions across industry, asset, and geographic lines. During six years at S&P IQ in his role as Global Head of Risk Solutions and Analytics, he oversaw the development of an innovative suite of risk-management solutions, including analytics, services, and data sets. From 2004 to 2007 he was Chief Operating Officer and Global Head of SunGard ERisk, where he oversaw quantitative modelers, programmers, and consultants in developing customized risk solutions for clients. Before that, he was President and Chief Executive Officer of Zoologic Inc., a provider of flexible learning tools for the financial services industry.

Mr. Samuels holds a Bachelor of Science in Finance and Management Information Systems from the State University of New York at Albany.

The OECD publishes a study on the price of oil: Brent set to rise by $190 by 2020

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Following a sharp drop amidst the global economic crisis and a subsequent recovery, the spot price of crude oil has been broadly stable for the past couple of years. This paper discusses the factors that drive oil demand and supply and, hence, the price of the resource. A set of oil demand equations is estimated for OECD and non-OECD countries, which is then combined with assumptions about the behavior of supply to analyze the impact of a range of macroeconomic and policy scenarios on the future oil price path. The scenario analysis suggests that a return of world growth to slightly below pre-crisis rates would be consistent with an increase in the price of Brent crude to far above early-2012 levels by 2020. This increase would be mostly driven by higher demand from non-OECD economies– in particular China and India. The expected rise in the oil price is unlikely to be smooth. Sudden changes in the supply or demand of oil can have very large effects on the price in the short run.

Access to the OECD Paper: Fournier, J. et al.(2013), “The Price of Oil – Will it Start Rising Again?”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1031, OECD Publishing.

Neuberger Berman Raises $1.1 Billion From Investors Worldwide For Second Global Private Equity Co-Investment Fund

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Neuberger Berman Group LLC, one of the world’s leading employee-controlled money managers, is pleased to announce the final close of NB Strategic Co-Investment Partners Fund II LP (“NBCIP II”), Neuberger Berman’s second global private equity co-investment fund. NBCIP II was oversubscribed, closing on $1.1 billion and surpassing its target of $750 million.

NBCIP II seeks to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns by investing directly into attractive deals alongside premier private equity firms in their core areas of expertise. It seeks to build a high-quality, diversified portfolio of strategic co-investments primarily in buyouts and growth financings on a global basis across multiple industries. NBCIP II has made nine investments to date for approximately $185 million and continues to experience strong deal flow.

NBCIP II is managed by six senior professionals with significant experience and a proven track record in private equity as co-investors. The Neuberger Berman team also manages NB Strategic Co-Investment Partners Fund I LP (“NBCIP I”), which closed in 2006 with $1.6 billion of investor commitments. The investment team leverages a large pool of talent within Neuberger Berman’s private equity group, which includes approximately 60 investment professionals in the U.S., Europe and Asia, and 115 investor services professionals.

NBCIP II’s global investor base of more than 25 institutional clients includes public pension plans, global asset managers, endowments and foundations, corporate pension plans, and insurance companies. Investors are based globally, including Asia, Europe, Latin America and North America. A substantial number of these clients previously invested in NBCIP I.

“We are delighted with client response to NB Strategic Co-Investment Partners Fund II LP and their support for our investment approach of serving as a strategic partner to lead private equity firms,” said David Stonberg , managing director and co-head of the team managing NBCIP I and II. “We estimate Fund II will have in excess of 30 portfolio company investments across multiple industries, geographies, enterprise value sizes, transaction types, vintage years and premier lead managers,” added David Morse , managing director and co-head of the team.

BNY Mellon renames its Luxembourg SICAV

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BNY Mellon cambia el nombre de su SICAV luxemburguesa — Wikimedia CommonsFoto: Werneuchen (Own work) [Public domain]. BNY Mellon renames its Luxembourg SICAV

BNY Mellon announced that effective 20 February 2013, the WestLB Mellon Compass Fund, an umbrella fund providing investors a range of equity and bonds sub-funds, has been renamed BNY Mellon Compass Fund. With this move, the fund’s name now reflects the change in shareholder structure of the former WestLB Mellon Asset Management, which was fully acquired by BNY Mellon in October 2012.

The management company of the BNY Mellon Compass Fund has been operating under the name of BNY Mellon Fund Management (Luxembourg) S.A. since last November.

Launched in 1998, the BNY Mellon Compass Fund is a Luxembourg-domiciled SICAV with EUR 2.1 billion in assets under management. Through its 13 sub-funds, investors can build a diversified portfolio that meets a range of risk / return profiles. The BNY Mellon Compass Fund aims to offer investors core portfolio products such as global or corporate bond funds as well as ways to diversify their asset allocation through small caps, high yield or emerging markets funds. The sub-funds are managed by Meriten Investment Management GMBH (formerly WestLB Mellon Asset Management KAG) and other BNY Mellon Investment Management boutiques.

PeterPaul Pardi, Global Head of Distribution for BNY Mellon Investment Management, commented on the name change: “The BNY Mellon Compass Fund has in the past enjoyed investor interest from both inside and outside of Germany. As part of BNY Mellon’s multi-boutique investment management model, the Luxembourg-domiciled fund is a premier example of the rich array of complementary strategies available to investors. With this name change to better reflect BNY Mellon’s robust global reach, we intend to deepen and broaden our international footprint.”

BNY Mellon Investment Management has $1.4 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon’s affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies.

Market Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF Passes $1.5 Billion Mark

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Market Vectors Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (NYSE Arca: EMLC), has surpassed $1.5 billion in assets under management (AUM). EMLC has seen an increase of more than $500 million in AUM in the last three months.

“Many local currency-denominated emerging market bonds are currently delivering more attractive yields than traditional fixed income investments, while at the same time offering currency and credit fundamentals that appear to be on more solid footing than fixed income investments denominated in U.S. Dollars, Euros or the Yen,” said Fran Rodilosso, fixed income portfolio manager at Market Vectors ETFs and one of two EMLC portfolio managers. “EMLC offers an excellent way to gain exposure to this space and the list of constituent countries in the Fund’s underlying index has been growing, with Romania and Nigeria having been recently added.”

When EMLC was brought to market in 2010, it was the first U.S.-listed exchange-traded fund designed to provide investors with exposure to an index that tracks a basket of bonds issued in local currencies by emerging market governments. The Fund seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of J.P. Morgan GBI-EMG Core Index. As of March 1, 2013, the Index tracked a selection of bonds issued in local currencies by 16 emerging market countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey.

Henry Silverman Appointed Guggenheim Partners Global Head of Real Estate and Infrastructure

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Guggenheim Partners announced the expansion of its real estate and infrastructure investment platform with the addition of a dedicated North American infrastructure investment team. Leading the initiative for the firm is Henry Silverman, who was appointed global head of real estate and infrastructure.

In the newly created role of global head of real estate and infrastructure, Silverman is responsible for managing and coordinating activity for all of Guggenheim’s real estate businesses, including Guggenheim Real Estate, Guggenheim Commercial Real Estate Finance, Pillar Financial, Generation Mortgage, and Guggenheim Retail Real Estate Partners.

Silverman joined the firm in early 2012 as vice chairman of Guggenheim Investments. Previously, he served as a director and vice chairman of the board and member of the executive committee of Apollo Global Management, and as its chief operating officer from 2009 to 2011.

The infrastructure investment team is led by William Reid, senior managing director, and includes Michael Madia, managing director and operating partner; Justine Gordon, managing director and head of acquisitions; Vince White, vice president, due diligence and asset management; and James Gabriel, vice president, acquisitions.

The infrastructure investment team will invest across the capital structure, including equity, structured equity and debt-related products, with an initial focus on core energy infrastructure assets, specifically power generation, midstream infrastructure, and electricity transmission, in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean.

Reid, Madia, Gordon, White and Gabriel have collectively participated in more than 30 transactions. Reid previously served as a managing director of North American energy infrastructure efforts at RREEF Infrastructure (RREEF).

Madia was formerly RREEF’s operating partner of infrastructure. Gordon previously served as a director responsible for business development and execution of energy investments at RREEF. White previously held project development, asset assessment and asset management roles for RREEF Infrastructure, International Power, GPU International and Con Edison Development. Gabriel previously served as an assistant vice president at RREEF responsible for identifying and executing investment opportunities.

AllianceBernstein and Muzinich, Examples of the Popularity of US Asset Managers Among Cross Border Investors

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Wikimedia CommonsFoto: NASA/Crew of Expedition 22. Tapering

Morningstar, today published its first Global Fund Flows Trend Report. The research report examines the trends that drove 2012 mutual fund asset flows in five key markets—Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan, and the United States—and provides a worldwide overview that includes these regions as well as other markets in which Morningstar tracks fund performance and assets.

“Despite ongoing worldwide economic uncertainty, the global fund management industry grew at a 3.9 percent organic growth rate in 2012. Excluding money market funds, USD 565 billion flowed into mutual funds during the year. These massive inflows, though, fell short of 2009 and 2010, which saw inflows of USD 746 billion and USD 672 billion, respectively. Moreover, the average management fee that the industry gathers from investors has fallen dramatically since 2007 due to the cyclical shift to fixed-income products and a secular inclination toward less expensive funds,” Syl Flood, product manager, investment research for Morningstar, said. “The prevailing global trend in 2012 was investors’ hunger for yield and quest for the perceived safety of fixed-income funds. Worldwide, fixed-income funds gathered USD 535 billion in 2012, or nearly 95 percent of long-term net inflows.”

Highlights from Morningstar’s Global Fund Flows Trend Report include:

U.S. fixed income, which houses the intermediate-term bond category and American heavyweights PIMCO Total Return and DoubleLine Total Return, is by far the largest long-term global category, with nearly USD 2 trillion in assets under management (AUM). U.S. investors contributed USD 199 billion of the category’s USD 227 billion total inflow in 2012. The PIMCO fund is by far the world’s largest actively managed strategy, with USD 442 billion in assets (including assets managed for institutional clients).
In 2012, interest from cross-border investors propelled funds in the U.S. fixed-income category to a 47 percent organic growth rate. Many of the most popular offerings are tended by U.S.-based managers, including AllianceBernstein, Muzinich, Neuberger Berman, and PIMCO.
While 78 percent of worldwide mutual fund and exchange-traded fund (ETF) AUM still resides in actively managed funds, passive products captured 41 percent of estimated net flows—USD 355 billion—in 2012. With the exception of Australia and New Zealand, index funds grew faster than actively managed funds in every geographic region during the year, and the United States is leading the way in its appetite for low-cost, passive strategies.
Newer funds—those without a three-year track record—captured 87 percent of worldwide inflows in 2012.

Large American Banks Pass The Exam

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The nation’s largest bank holding companies have continued to improve their ability to withstand an extremely adverse hypothetical economic scenario and are collectively in a much stronger capital position than before the financial crisis, according to the summary results of bank stress tests announced by the Federal Reserve on Thursday.

Reflecting the severity of the stress scenario–which includes a peak unemployment rate of 12.1 percent, a drop in equity prices of more than 50 percent, a decline in housing prices of more than 20 percent, and a sharp market shock for the largest trading firms–projected losses at the 18 bank holding companies would total $462 billion during the nine quarters of the hypothetical stress scenario. The aggregate tier 1 common capital ratio, which compares high-quality capital to risk-weighted assets, would fall from an actual 11.1 percent in the third quarter of 2012 to 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 in the hypothetical stress scenario.

“Significant increases in both the quality and quantity of bank capital during the past four years help ensure that banks can continue to lend to consumers and businesses, even in times of economic difficulty.”

The Federal Reserve’s stress scenario estimates are the outcome of deliberately stringent and conservative assessments under hypothetical, adverse economic conditions and the results are not forecasts or expected outcomes.

Despite the large hypothetical declines, the aggregate post-stress capital ratio exceeds the actual aggregate tier 1 common ratio for the 18 firms of approximately 5.6 percent at the end of 2008, prior to the government stress tests conducted in the midst of the financial crisis in early 2009. This is the third round of stress tests led by the Federal Reserve since the tests in 2009, but is the first year that the Federal Reserve has conducted stress tests pursuant to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and the Federal Reserve’s implementing regulations.

“The stress tests are a tool to gauge the resiliency of the financial sector,” Federal Reserve Governor Daniel K. Tarullo said. “Significant increases in both the quality and quantity of bank capital during the past four years help ensure that banks can continue to lend to consumers and businesses, even in times of economic difficulty.”

You may access the complete report (pdf file) on this link.

Latin America will generate 13,000 new ultra rich in the next decade, according to Knight Frank

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London and New York remain the top destinations for the world’s ultra-high net worth individuals to live and invest in but Asian cities are fast catching up, says Knight Frank’s seventh annual Wealth Report

Key Findings

The global number of High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWIs is defined as someone with $30 million or more in net assets) increased by almost 8,700, or 5%, in 2012
Their number is set to increase by another 50% in the coming decade, according to forecasts prepared for Knight Frank’s Wealth Report
Fastest growth in wealth creation will be in Asia and Latin America over the next 10 years
London and New York are the top destinations in the world for wealthy individuals and will remain so until 2023, according Knight Frank’s survey of wealth advisors, whose 15,000 clients have assets worth US $1 trillion.
The 2012 results of Knight Frank’s index which tracks the performance of luxury property prices across 80 global destinations shows Jakarta and Bali recorded the highest growth
Monaco remains the most expensive location to buy prime residential property: a luxury home can range in value from $5,350 to $5,920 per square foot.
Classic cars have enjoyed the biggest uplift in value over last 10 years (395%), measured against other key collectable assets, such as fine wine and art, inKnight Frank’s Luxury Investment Index.

The total number of super-rich individuals increased globally by 5% in 2012, pushing an extra 8,700 people into the ultra-high net worth bracket, according to the seventh edition of The Wealth Report, produced by Knight Frank, a leading global property company.

The total wealth of HNWIs – those with net assets of US $30m or more – increased by $566bn to $26 trillion, an increase of 2% year- on-year, according to data produced exclusively for Knight Frank’s Wealth Report by Wealth X, a wealth intelligence firm. Over the next ten years another 95,000 individuals are set to break the $30m barrier in terms of personal wealth, and while Asia and Latin America will see the largest growth in the number of ultra-wealthy individuals, North America will still have the highest total number of HNWIs in 2022.

In this regard, the report notes that in Latin America the ultra rich 15,230 recorded in 2012 to reach 26,628, representing an increase of 88%, the same as in the case of the asians ultra-rich, rising from recorded more than 43,000 last year to more than 82,300 in ten years.

Liam Bailey, Global Head of Residential Research at Knight Frank, said: “The largest concentration of wealth is currently based in the established centres of North America and Europe, but there is set to be rapid growth in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. In the next decade we will see the biggest increase in ultra-wealthy individuals in cities such as Sao Paulo, Beijing, and Mumbai.”

“According to a survey of advisors with 15,000 ultra-wealthy clients, London and New York are still the most important destinations in the world. In ten years’ time they will still lead the way, but key Asian cities will have moved further up the list.”

The growing influence of Asian wealth creation is shown in the results of The Wealth Report’s Prime International Residential Index (PIRI) which tracks the value of luxury residential prices in 80 prime global locations in 2012. Price growth was strongest in Jakarta and Bali, with luxury property values rising by 38% and 20% respectively, boosted by a growing middle class in Indonesia.

The Chinese cities of Guangzhou and Shanghai also saw double-digit growth in the value of prime property, while the sheer weight of Chinese wealth pouring into Hong Kong resulted in an annual price increase of 8.7%, despite the Government cooling measures which limited the potential for similar increases in Beijing.

“Wealth creation has not been dented by the global economy slowing, nor has this affected the demand for prime property as the search for safe haven investments has continued,” Liam Bailey explained. “These factors will likely drive prime values higher in the short to medium term as HNWIs look to invest in tangible assets such as a prime property in the major global cities. But the results of our survey of advisers to the ultra-wealthy around the world shows that the appetite for some level of risk is returning, which in turn is opening up some property markets which have been moribund for several years.”

The super-wealthy, especially those in China, are also set to step up their interest this year in “investments of passion” such as art, fine wine, classic cars, coins and watches. Knight Frank’s Luxury Investment Index shows that classic cars have seen the largest appreciation in value over the last decade, with an average uplift in price of 395%.

The basket of collectable assets such as art, fine wine, classic cars, coins and watches within the overall luxury index has accrued cumulative gains of 175% over 10 years (with a 6% uplift in 2012 alone). The ultra-wealthy also increased their spending on philanthropic activities in 2012 compared to 2011, with the most significant increase in expenditure among those in Asia and Russia and CIS.

Long short equity, event-driven and emerging markets, the favorite strategies of hedge managers

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Credit Suisse is pleased to announce the results of its annual Global Hedge Fund Investor Survey, in which we analyze responses from close to 550 institutional investors, representing $1.03 trillion of hedge fund investments, on a number of topics. These include investors’ current views on the growth and return prospects for the hedge fund industry; their preference and allocations plans across various strategies and regions and their views on key new trends and developments in the industry. This year’s survey also explored in closer detail preferences and investing trends amongst pensions and other institutional investors.

The title of this year’s survey, “Reaching New Heights”, reflects optimism expressed by institutional investors towards the prospects for industry performance and growth during 2013. Robert Leonard, Managing Director and Global Head of Capital Services at Credit Suisse commented: “Institutional investors are clearly expressing more confidence in risk assets in this year’s survey and appear less worried about left tail risk events or macroeconomic uncertainty. Given the backdrop of effective central bank policies, lower political uncertainty and positive performance last year, it is not surprising to see increased expectations for 2013.”

When respondents were asked to forecast total industry assets at the end of 2013, the average prediction was US$2.42 trillion. This would represent an industry growth rate of over 10% or $220B, comprising of positive performance and new capital inflows. If correct, this would represent an all-time high for hedge fund industry assets under management by the end of this year.

Respondents shared their insights into which hedge fund strategies they anticipate allocating capital to during 2013:

Long/Short Equity was identified as being the most sought after strategy in 2013
Emerging Markets Equity was the second most favored strategy
Event-Driven strategies moved up to 3rd place from 10th place last year

In terms of regional preferences, Emerging Markets and Asia-Pacific regions remained in the top two spots, though they traded places from last year’s survey. This seems in keeping with investors’ stated increase in risk appetite. Investors also exhibited a very strong bounce back (26%) in demand for Developed Europe, as they appear to have taken comfort in some of the political actions taken there in the latter half of 2012.

When asked about their preference for hedge funds from a size standpoint, investors indicated that those managers running between $500M and $2B in assets under management were in the best position to be considered for future allocations.

The survey also uncovered a number of other key new industry trends and developments for 2013:

Return expectations among institutional investors for hedge funds increased to 6.9% from returns expectations from a forecast of 5.4% last year. This appears to coincide with the ongoing reduction in correlations and the belief that this will create an environment for stock-picking strategies to outperform.
Respondents ranked crowded trades/herd behavior, additional regulatory changes and underperformance risk as the three greatest sources of risks facing the hedge fund industry this year. Sovereign default risk and credit/counterparty risk, which were both in the top three last year, dropped significantly.
Investors continue to show strong appetite for those new hedge funds launches deemed to be of institutional quality. However, in a new development, the survey results showed a large uptick in the number of investors who would require some level of reduced fees, including founder’s share classes.
A new section in this year’s survey covered trends and developments in the pension space. The results indicated that public pension funds were the most active in this segment and expect to increase their allocations going forward. Further, our findings identified risk-adjusted and uncorrelated returns as the primary investment objectives of the pension community, and also highlighted the continued significance of consultants.
Investors regard further hedge fund consolidations/liquidations this year to be a potentially significant development. They also expect to see additional fee compression this year, as well as the growth of alternate structures such as 40 Act Funds and long-only vehicles from hedge fund managers.

Leonard added: “We believe that pension funds represent a key element for the future growth of the hedge fund industry and therefore, wanted to take a deeper dive into the developing trends surrounding their investment preferences and requirements. We believe that this year’s survey provides some truly unique insights into those trends.”

The survey, produced by Credit Suisse’s Hedge Fund Capital Services Group, is the most comprehensive published to date, with more than 550 groups participating—including pension funds, consultants, family offices and funds of hedge funds—and with respondents diversified across all regions.